Health impacts of energy production: climate policy assessments

Jouni Tuomisto, THL

Outline

• Energy and greenhouse gas situation in Finland

• Open assessment and decision analysis

• Energy balance

• Climate change and health

Energy production by source in Finland

• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011_04_2012-03-22_kuv_008_fi.html

Final energy use in Finland

• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011_04_2012-03-22_kuv_016_fi.html

Electricity production by source in Finland

• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011_04_2012-03-22_kuv_010_fi.html

Electricity use by sector in Finland

• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011_04_2012-03-22_kuv_020_fi.html

Renewable energy share 2009 and target 2020

• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011_04_2012-03-22_kuv_021_fi.html

Greenhouse gas emissions in Finland

• http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ehk/2011/04/ehk_2011_04_2012-03-22_kuv_023_fi.html

13

energiantuotanto 66 %• teollisuuteen• kotitalouksien sähkön- kulutukseen ja lämmitykseen• palvelusektorille

liikenne 17 %• yksityisautoilu • teollisuuden ja kaupan kuljetukset• julkinen liikenne

maatalous 9 %

jätehuolto 4 %teollisuuden prosessit 4 %

Lähde: Tilastokeskus 2003 ilmasto.org

Maapallon tasolla maankäyttö (metsien hävittäminen) aiheuttaa 18% päästöistä

Carbon dioxide emissions in Finland

Greenhouse gas emission trends• Total• Energy sector

total• Energy

industry• Industry and

construction (burning)

• Homeland traffic

• Agriculture• Industry

processes

Nord Pool regions

• http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Templates/Pages/MapPageTemplate.aspx?id=1449&epslanguage=en

Electricity production in Nordic countries (Nord Pool)

• http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Global/Download%20Center/TSO/Nordic-production-split_2004-2011.pdf

Heat, power, and cool energy consumpion in Helsinki region (3 d)

• http://www.helen.fi/sahko/energiahankinta/

Monthly electricity prices in Nordic countries

• http://en.opasnet.org/w/Electricity_prices_in_Nordic_countries

Measuring utilities

• Adjust u in such a way that you are indifferent between the two options.

• Then, your utility for option x is u(x).

u

1-u Worst outcome

Best outcome

Choose option xOption

Choose gamble

Utility

?

0

1

Which option is the best?0.03

0.15

Healthy

Swine flu

Side effectVaccination

Swine flu

Do nothing

Utility

0.3

1

0.3

0

Healthy

0.003

1

Which option is the best?

• u(Vaccination)=0.976

• u(Do nothing)=0.895 Choose vaccination

0.03

0.15

Healthy

Swine flu

Side effectVaccination

Swine flu

Do nothing

u; E(u)

0.3;0.009

1;0.85

0.3;0.045

0;0

Healthy

0.003

1;0.967

Swine flu

Causal diagrams: a powerful tool for describing decision analysis models

Vaccination Outcome

Complications

Causal diagram - practice

• http://en.opasnet.org/w/Assessment_of_the_health_impacts_of_H1N1_vaccination

Structure of a decision table

• http://en.opasnet.org/w/Decision

Energy balance model is a set of equations

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_of_linear_equations#Vector_equation

A system of three linear equations

• There is typically a single solution.

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Secretsharing-3-point.png

The set can be described as a matrix

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_of_linear_equations#Matrix_equation

Energy balance model

– http://en.opasnet.org/w/Energy_balance_in_Kuopio

Energy balance – larger version

Major health effects due to Climate Change (size of impact and confidence on the estimate)

Source: IPCC 2007

Not only extremes: Pathways by which climate change affects health and favourable conditions may help

Source: IPCC 2007

Key messages related to health (in U.S.A.)Climate change impacts report USA 2009

• Increases in the risk of illness and death related to extreme heat and heat waves are very likely. Some reduction in the risk of death related to extreme cold is expected.

• Warming is likely to make it more challenging to meet air quality standards necessary to protect public health.

• Extreme weather events cause physical and mental health problems. Some of these events are projected to increase.

• Some diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects are likely to increase.

• Rising temperature and carbon dioxide concentration increase pollen production and prolong the pollen season in a number of plants with highly allergenic pollen, presenting a health risk.

• Certain groups, including children, the elderly, and the poor, are most vulnerable to a range of climate-related health effects.

Stern 2006

Additional deaths caused by climate change in 2000

Global radiative forcing

IPCC 2007