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HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

FEBRUARY 2014

INDEX

Particulars Page No. Particulars Page No.

FEBRUARY REPORT MAIN POINTERS 01 HDPE OFFERS 14

IMPORT SNAPSHOT CAPACITY PROJECTIONS & DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO

HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT 02 HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 15

HD/LD/LLD % SHARE IN INDIA PE IMPORTS 03 ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 15

HDPE MONTHLY IMPORTS REGION-WISE BREAKDOWN 03 INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY 16

INDIA HDPE IMPORTS COUNTRY-WISE BREAKDOWN 04 INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY 16

INDIA HDPE DESTINATION PORT-WISE BREAKDOWN 05 INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY 17

SOURCE COUNTRY DESTINATION PORT MATRIX JANUARY 2014 06 INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY 17

PRODUCT PRICING GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES 18

HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING 08

HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN) 09 SOUTH ASIA IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE 19

M-o-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE 09

HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 10 CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD 22

HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 10

ETHYLENE INDIA PRICE MOVEMENT 11 INDIA GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2013-14 23

MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS 12

DISCLAIMER 24

IMPORTANT GLOBAL NEWS 13

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POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

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High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)

February Report Main Pointers

HDPE import volume increased in the month of FebruaryHDPE grades witnessed a rise in the monthly average prices

HDPE accounted for 41.95% of all PE that was imported into India

90.59% of the HDPE that was imported into India in February was sourced from the Middle East region

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Iran and Kuwait were the largest exporters of HDPE to IndiaJNPT, Chennai and Tuticorin among seaports and Ahmedabad ICD, Tughlakabad ICD among dryports were the largest HDPE import volume

handling ports

HDPE was sourced from a total of 21 countries with 26 ports (air/sea/dry) in India being the destination points

Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside

Nymex crude and Dated Brent prices witnessed a net upside

INR witnessed a net appreciation against the USD

Central Board of Excise & Customs notifications on import/export USD exchange rates are as follows:

Dated February 6th2014: 62.95/USD (for imports) & 61.95/USD (for exports)

Dated February 20th2014: 62.95/USD (for imports) & 61.95/USD (for exports)

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Introduction

HDPE is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India given its various applications. It takes1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its large strength to density ratio, HDPE

finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a sheathing material where it provides high

resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it is used in products and packaging such

as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes.

HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food

containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.

Import Snapshot

Exhibit:HDPE India Import Snapshot

The table gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports. The month of February saw HDPE

import level at 38919 MTS which represents a rise of 29.36% M-o-M. The monetary value of HDPE imports in February stood at Rs. 382 crores which is a

rise of 30.38% M-o-M.

Source: GoI Import Data

DE () ( )

13 34253 8.20% 270 6.90%

13 28109 17.94% 227 15.93%

13 31391 11.68% 263 15.86%A13 29322 6.59% 249 5.32%

13 31949 8.96% 266 6.83%

13 33839 5.92% 285 7.14%

13 29801 11.93% 266 6.67%

A13 25050 15.94% 232 12.78%

13 24385 2.65% 244 5.17%

13 27253 11.76% 264 8.20%

13 24461 10.24% 240 9.09%

13 29833 21.96% 287 19.58%

14 30086 0.85% 293 2.09%

14 38919 29.36% 382 30.38%

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Exhibit: HD/LD/LLD % share in India PE imports


The chart shows the monthly HD/LD/LLD percentage share in total PE imported into India. The % share of HDPE increased while that of LDPE and LLDPEdecreased in the month of February.

Exhibit: HDPE monthly imports region-wise breakdown


The above table lists the region-wise breakdown of imported HDPE. The bulk of

HDPE imported by India is sourced from the Middle East region.

DE 14 14

AA 6.06% 6.72%

1.49% 1.31%

A 91.08% 90.59%

AA 1.29% 1.32%

AA 0.08% 0.06%

100.00% 100.00%

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Exhibit: India HDPE Imports country-wise breakdown


The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was imported into India. The previous months import figures are also provided for M-o-M comparison.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Iran and Kuwait were the largest exporters of HDPE to India.

DE () 14 14B 25

BA 25 25

AAA 23 23

A 31 5

A 15 58

A 335 279

23A 88 35

A 644 2178

AA 366 388

A 552 693

A 1958 1715

AAA 102

AA 9695 9590

A AABA 13180 17976

A 438 596

A 50 50

50 99

AA 46 51

AA 198 822

A 1926 3799

A 364 490 30086 38919

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Exhibit: India HDPE Destination Port-wise breakdown


The table lists out the ports that handled the imported HDPE in February 2014.

The previous months import figures are also provided for M-o-M comparison

JNPT, Chennai and Tuticorin among seaports and Ahmedabad ICD, Tughlakabad

ICD among dryports were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports.

DE () 14 14

AABA 965 1387

BAABA 61 82

BAA AA 90

BAA 1386 1139

A 1575 3191

834 833

A ABA 67

A 67 84

A 12A 116 224

AAA A 362 344

ABA 492 988

19035 23181

AA 124

AA A 4

AA 270 786

AA 48 64

AA 190 197

A 305 843

A 10

A 9

AAA 2 2

A 248

AA 208A 52

A 36

AABA 945 1190

229 936

2449 2756

A 213 319

A 32 32

30086 38919

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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix February 2014

CE

()

D

A

B 25

BA ABA 25

AAA AABA 23

A A 5

A 8

50AAA A 74

201

AA 4

AABA 23

A A 35

A 2178

A 117

AAA A 216

54

AAA 2

A 140

476

AABA 42

35

A

A

A

AA

CE

()

D

A

AABA 50

149

873

A 149

272

A 223AABA 192

BAA 32

BAA AA 48

A 992

536

ABA 208

5645

AA 608

AA 64

A 496

AABA 512

129

A 96

A 32

A

AA

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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix February 2014


The tables above represent the source country and destination port matrix which lists out the ports which have received the HDPE imports from the

source countries for the month of February 2014. The type of port and the volume involved are also provided.

CE ()

D

A

AABA 1107

BAA 50

BAA AA 42

BAA 1089

A 1242

99A ABA 67

A 84

ABA 755

9817

AA 80

AABA 290

936

2320

A 596

A BAA 50

AABA 99

AA 51

A AABA

CE ()

D

A

A 469

50

A 224

2335

AA 124

AA 44AA 197

A 198

A 9

A 17

AABA 135

AAA A 54

406

AABA 30

AABA 38

A 218

476

AA 54

AABA 36

AA

A

A

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HDPE India Pricing

Exhibit:HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades. Three month and six month averages are also provided. HDPE witnesseda rise in prices across grades in the month of February.

DE B

14 107.96 109.29 110.83 113.43 113.34

14 105.54 106.87 108.41 111.51 111.42

13 102.80 103.63 105.67 108.27 108.68

13 101.71 102.54 104.58 107.18 107.59

13 101.46 102.29 104.33 106.93 107.34

13 104.56 105.39 107.43 109.03 110.44

A13 95.96 96.82 99.97 100.48 101.94

13 95.46 96.32 99.47 99.98 101.44

13 90.71 91.51 94.61 94.99 96.61

13 85.99 86.79 89.89 89.97 91.39

A13 85.80 86.60 89.70 90.05 91.20

13 87.80 88.60 91.70 92.27 93.20

13 87.96 88.76 91.86 92.43 93.3613 85.64 86.44 89.54 90.11 92.80

3 A 105.43 106.60 108.30 111.07 111.15

6 A 104.01 105.00 106.88 109.39 109.80

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Exhibit:HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film.

HDPE Film prices registered a price of Rs. 107.96 per Kg in the month of February.

Exhibit:M-o-M Average Prices % Change

Source: PolymerUpdate Price

Archives Reliance Ex-Hazira

Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the M-o-M

changes for the respective HDPE

grades considering average

monthly prices. The month of

February saw an increase in

prices considering monthly

averages.

DE

1414 104.46 105.96

13 102.46 103.46

13 100.96 102.46

13 100.96 101.96

13 103.96 104.96

A13

13 94.46 95.9613 89.46 91.46

13 84.96 86.96

A13 84.96 86.46

13 86.46 88.96

13

13 83.96 86.96

87.96

95.96

107.96

DE B

14 2.29% 2.26% 2.23% 1.72% 1.72%

14 2.67% 3.13% 2.59% 2.99% 2.52%

13 1.07% 1.06% 1.04% 1.02% 1.01%

13 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23%

13 2.96% 2.94% 2.89% 1.93% 2.81%

13 8.96% 8.85% 7.46% 8.51% 8.34%

A13 0.52% 0.52% 0.50% 0.50% 0.49%

13 5.24% 5.26% 5.14% 5.25% 5.00%

13 5.49% 5.44% 5.25% 5.58% 5.71%

13 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.09% 0.21%

A13 2.28% 2.26% 2.18% 2.41% 2.15%

13 0.18% 0.18% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%

13 2.71% 2.68% 2.59% 2.57% 0.60%

13 3.32% 3.26% 3.13% 3.11% 2.75%

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Exhibit:HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg

Basic)

The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year

time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of Feb 2013 = Rs. 87.96 per Kg

HDPE Film Price at the end of Feb 2014 = Rs. 107.96 per Kg

% Price change in 1 year = 22.74%

Exhibit:HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg

Basic)

The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a

three year time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of Feb 2011 = Rs. 65.51 per Kg

HDPE Film Price at the end of Feb 2014 = Rs. 107.96 per Kg

% Price change in 3 years = 64.80%

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Exhibit:Ethylene India Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

Ethylene price in the beginning of Feb 2014 = 1410 USD per MT

Ethylene price at the end of Feb 2014 = 1430 USD per MT

% price change in Feb 2014 = 1.42%

Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside in the month of February.

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Exhibit:Major Products Price Trends

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty),

LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET(Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA (Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

value is Up, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the

value is Down, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

value is No Change, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India

price movements of the following grades: HDPE Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk

Pouch; LLDPE Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQFilm; PVC - Suspension; PET Bottle; PS GPPS, HIPS; EVA.

A13

13

13

A13

13

13

13

A13

13

13

13

13

14

14

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HDPE Offers

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

B

C

C

E D

B 16701680 14 414

1550 / 2014 1014

B 1540 A 14 2514

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Capacity Projections & Demand Supply Scenario

Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)

Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum

Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)

DE C () 201314 201415 201516 201617

490 490 490 490

A 700 700 700 700

550 550 550 550

475 475 475 475

A 720 720 720B 155 155 155 155

E C () 201314 201415 201516 201617

1840 1840 3240 3240

A 1000 1000 1000 1000

670 670 670 670

857 857 857 857

B A 220 220 220 220A 0 1100 1100 1100

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Exhibit:India HDPE Demand Supply

Source: Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference 2013 India Country Report (A:Actual, E:Estimate)

The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot. HDPE registered a 9% growth in 2012; this is likely to increase to 12% and 14% in 2013

and 2014 respectively.

Exhibit:India All PE Demand Supply


The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India. As we can see, PE recorded a growth of 12% in 2012 and likely to maintain the momentum in 2013

and 2014.

DE () 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

1513 1740 1740 1740 1900

/ 847 1007 1007 1007 1175

2360 2747 2747 2747 3075

1108 1462 1414 1464 1588

449 332 449 536 646

88 242 171 100 61

A 1469 1552 1692 1901 2173

(%) 9.50% 5.70% 9.00% 12% 14%

A E () 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

2578 2965 2965 2965 3293

1992 2399 2332 2548 2746

1087 972 1323 1455 1707

95 265 176 121 86

A 2984 3106 3479 3881 4366

(%) 9.40% 4.10% 12% 12% 12%

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Exhibit:India Polymer Demand Supply


The table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario. Operating rate is expected to increase from 83% in 2012 to 86% in 2013 and expected to

touch 90% in 2014.

Exhibit:India Ethylene Net Availability


All ethylene produced in India is used for local consumption and is not exported.

() 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

7905 8467 8907 9447 9875

6358 7102 7434 8116 8867

80% 84% 83% 86% 90%

2104 2099 2552 2793 3136

792 1089 1027 996 965

1313 1010 1525 1797 2171

A 7670 8113 8959 9913 11037

% 12% 5.80% 10% 11% 11%

E () 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

3826 4080 4080 4080 5180

2827 3355 3744 3735 4421

109 36 23 50 25

0 0 0 0 0

A 2936 3391 3767 3785 4446

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GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures

Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12

2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth

rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.

5 DE E CA

9.20% 9.00%

10.90% 7.00%

11.10% 12.90%

9.20% 12.40%

13 5

(2016/17

2021/22)

9.00% 0.80%

A

11 5

(2005/06

2011/12)

12 5

(2011/12

2016/17)

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South Asia Import Duty Structure

B D % C

D (CD) %

E C

CD %

A D

(AD) %

A D %

DE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

DE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

DE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

7.5 12 3 4 25.852C 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

7.5 12 3 4 25.852

7.5 12 3 4 25.852

C 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

E 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

DA

B D % A % A

(A)

A

A (A) A D %

DE 5 15 5 3 28

DE 5 15 5 3 28

DE 5 15 5 3 28 5 15 5 3 28

C 5 15 5 3 28

5 15 5 3 28

5 15 5 3 28

C 5 15 5 3 28

E 5 15 5 3 28

BAADE

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C

D (CD) %

A ( &

A

D

) %

B

(B) % A % A D %

DE 0 5 2 12 19

DE 0 5 2 12 19

DE 0 5 2 12 19

0 5 2 12 19

C 0 5 2 12 19

0 5 2 12 19

0 5 2 12 19

C 0 5 2 12 19

E 0 5 2 12 19

AA

C

D (CD) % A %

C

D (CD) % A %

DE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

DE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

DE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

C 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

C 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23E 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23

A D %A D %

EA

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Data collected from various sources

C

D (CD) % % % A D %

DE 5 17 5 27

DE 5 17 5 27

DE 5 17 5 27

5 17 5 27

C 5 17 5 27

15 17 5 37

15 17 5 37

E 15 17 5 37

C 10 17 5 32

AA

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Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates

The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while

the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate.

INR value against the USD in the beginning of Feb 2014 = 62.69 per USD

INR value against the USD at the end of Feb 2014 = 62.07 per USD

% value change in Feb 2014 = -0.98% (appreciation)

Dated Brent price in the beginning of Feb 2014 = 106.04 USD per barrel

Dated Brent price at the end of Feb 2014 = 109.07 USD per barrel


Nymex crude price in the beginning of Feb 2014 = 96.43 USD per barrel

Nymex crude price at the end of Feb 2014 = 102.59 USD per barrel



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India GDP Growth Projections 2013-14

Data collected from various sources

D AB 2013 4.7%

2013 4.8%

2013 4.8%

2014 4.9%

A 2014 4.7%4.9%

B 2013 4.8%

2014 4.7% B 2013 4.7%


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We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at [email protected].

Note: The Govt. of India has decided as a policy matter to not disclose the names of the importers/exporters on the ground that revealing such

information would violate commercial confidentiality. These rules are in the nature of subordinate legislation and have the legal force of the Parliament.

Please refer toNotification No. 128/2004-Customs (N.T) Direct Link: http://www.cbec.gov.in/customs/cs-act/notifications/notfns-2k4/csnt128-2k4.htm

The content in this report wherever the source is mentioned as the GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals is owned by the Planning Commission,Government of India and its further distribution is strictly forbidden without permission of the Planning Commission, Government of India.

Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an as is basis. We have

attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We

have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which are

difficult to verify independently and may have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some calculations;

hence some totals/subtotals may not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness

or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate.

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expense, loss or damage whatsoever arising from use, or loss of use, of data, arising out of or in connection with the use of this report. The content of

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