HCC Market Bulletin - meatpromotion.wales · Kantar Worldpanel data for the year to date (up until...
Transcript of HCC Market Bulletin - meatpromotion.wales · Kantar Worldpanel data for the year to date (up until...
HCC Market Bulletin November 2019
Hybu Cig CymruMeat Promotion Wales
www.meatpromotion.wales
Kantar Worldpanel data indicates that total spend on lamb in GB is up on year-earlier levels, with the frequency of purchase for lamb increasing as consumers look to buy less, more often, for convenience purposes. This month’s market bulletin will look at the GB lamb retail sales in greater detail for the year to date (06 October 2019).
GB retail sales of total lambKantar Worldpanel data for the year to date (up until 06 October 2019) shows that the total volume of GB lamb sales for the period remained relatively stable compared to last year at 46,000 tonnes. Neither fresh or frozen categories experienced much change in volume terms either – with total frozen lamb decreasing 0.9% on year earlier levels. Despite the volume of lamb sales not experiencing much change, total spend increased by 2.0% to total £435.8 million. Overall spend on lamb at retail has improved due to a 2.0% increase in the average price, which stood at £9.48/kg.
Looking further at the data, frequency of purchase for lamb increased by 1.9% to 5.0 times (per buyer) during the time period. As consumers look for convenient meal options, lamb purchases are more frequent but shoppers bought less with each trip – with the average volume per trip standing at 0.7kg (down 1.1% on year-earlier levels). Almost half (48.1%) of GB households bought lamb at retail during this time period, although this is a decrease of 1.7% on year-earlier levels. In summary, fewer people purchased lamb at retail (down 0.8%), but those that did buy lamb during the time frame bought an overall increased volume (up 0.8%).
GB retail sales of various lamb categoriesThe total volume of lamb sold at retail in GB during the time period did not differ greatly to year-earlier levels, however data from Kantar Worldpanel indicates that the volume of various lamb categories showed some year-on-year change. The largest change in volume sold was recorded for lamb shoulder roasting joints which experienced a 6.4% decrease (in volume terms). Following on from a decrease in volume, the shoulder roasting joints saw a decline in total spend too - down 6.2%. The volume of lamb leg roasting joints sold remained relatively similar to last year (down 0.3%), but experienced an increase of 6.2% in total spend due to an increase of 54p in the average price to £8.88/kg. Together, roasting joints accounted for 45.7% of all GB lamb sales (in terms of value) – an increase on the 44.9% share seen this time last year. Although roasting joints saw an overall decrease in the total volume sold during the time frame, sales of frozen roasting joints saw an increase of more than 20% when compared to sales of fresh roasting joints (down 2.6%).
There was a significant increase of 6.2% in the volume of lamb mince sold during the time frame due to buyers increasing the frequency of which lamb mince was put in their basket (up 5.0%). Following on from the increase in volume sold, and the 2.3% rise in the average price per kg, total spend on mince increased 8.7% year-on-year which meant that lamb mince accounted for 9.1% of total GB lamb sales during the time period.
(’000
hea
d)
100Steers Heifers
275
450
625
800
Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)
Sour
ce: D
efra
Young Bulls
170
190
195
175
p/kg
lw
200
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime cattle slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
110100
140
160
120
180
Sour
ce: D
efra
140
200
220240
160
p/kg
lw
260
280
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime lamb slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
800
700
1000
1100
1300
Sour
ce: D
efra
145
155
135
p/kg
lw 160
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)
140
(000
) hea
d
UK clean pig slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
650
600
750
900
800
Sour
ce: D
efra
1000
170
150
120
1200
900 700
850
950
Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)
(000
) hea
d
5
0
15
25
35
10
20
30
31/3
/18
7/4/
1814
/4/1
821
/4/1
828
/4/1
85/
5/18
12/5
/18
19/5
/18
26/5
/18
2/6/
189/
6/18
16/6
/18
23/6
/18
30/6
/18
7/7/
1814
/7/1
821
/7/1
828
/7/1
84/
8/18
18/8
/18
25/8
/18
11/8
/18
20182017
New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales
Beef70.2%
Dairy29.8% Beef
Dairy
20172018
year
-on-
year
cha
nge
(%)
Chops/Steaks
10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales
(YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
head
0
200
400
500
700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)
190
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
205
210
185
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
170
Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)
100
300
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Steers Heifers Young Bulls
Sour
ce: D
efra
1652019
20172018
150
165
175
Leg Roasting Joint
Shoulder Roasting Joint
MinceStewing
Other
ValueVolume
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)
Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)
Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
(’000
hea
d)
100Steers Heifers
275
450
625
800
Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)
Sour
ce: D
efra
Young Bulls
170
190
195
175
p/kg
lw
200
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime cattle slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
110100
140
160
120
180
Sour
ce: D
efra
140
200
220240
160
p/kg
lw
260
280
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime lamb slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
800
700
1000
1100
1300
Sour
ce: D
efra
145
155
135
p/kg
lw 160
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)
140
(000
) hea
d
UK clean pig slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
650
600
750
900
800
Sour
ce: D
efra
1000
170
150
120
1200
900 700
850
950
Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)
(000
) hea
d
5
0
15
25
35
10
20
30
31/3
/18
7/4/
1814
/4/1
821
/4/1
828
/4/1
85/
5/18
12/5
/18
19/5
/18
26/5
/18
2/6/
189/
6/18
16/6
/18
23/6
/18
30/6
/18
7/7/
1814
/7/1
821
/7/1
828
/7/1
84/
8/18
18/8
/18
25/8
/18
11/8
/18
20182017
New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales
Beef70.2%
Dairy29.8% Beef
Dairy
20172018
year
-on-
year
cha
nge
(%)
Chops/Steaks
10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales
(YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
head
0
200
400
500
700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)
190
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
205
210
185
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
170
Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)
100
300
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Steers Heifers Young Bulls
Sour
ce: D
efra
1652019
20172018
150
165
175
Leg Roasting Joint
Shoulder Roasting Joint
MinceStewing
Other
ValueVolume
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)
Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)
Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
CATTLEThe all prime cattle average market price in England and Wales stood at 175.1p/kg for the week ending 02 November – a decrease of 0.8p on the week, and 11.2p below year earlier levels. Cattle prices continue to trend below the 5-year average, with the current liveweight price sitting 11.7p below the average (2014-18 average: 186.8p/kg). For the week ending 02 November, the average deadweight prices in England and Wales decreased on the week for all categories of prime cattle. Heifers saw the biggest decrease to 314.3p/kg (-3.3p), whilst young bulls fell 2.8p to 299.4p/kg. Steers were relatively stable on the week (-0.1p) to 316.5p/kg, and now stand 33.8p below year-earlier levels.
Total cattle throughput at UK abattoirs stood at 228, 800 head for September – up 6.3% on August and up 4.9% on the corresponding month last year. Total prime cattle throughput for the month was significantly higher than the previous month (+ 6.3%) and year-earlier levels (+ 6.8%) and stood at 170,100 head. Within this total, heifer throughput was 11.1% above year-earlier levels with an average carcase weight of 316.6kg – the lightest on record so far this year, and 2.1kg lighter than last year.
(’000
hea
d)
100Steers Heifers
275
450
625
800
Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)
Sour
ce: D
efra
Young Bulls
170
190
195
175
p/kg
lw
200
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime cattle slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
110100
140
160
120
180
Sour
ce: D
efra
140
200
220240
160
p/kg
lw
260
280
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime lamb slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
800
700
1000
1100
1300
Sour
ce: D
efra
145
155
135
p/kg
lw 160
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)
140
(000
) hea
d
UK clean pig slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
650
600
750
900
800
Sour
ce: D
efra
1000
170
150
120
1200
900 700
850
950
Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)
(000
) hea
d
5
0
15
25
35
10
20
30
31/3
/18
7/4/
1814
/4/1
821
/4/1
828
/4/1
85/
5/18
12/5
/18
19/5
/18
26/5
/18
2/6/
189/
6/18
16/6
/18
23/6
/18
30/6
/18
7/7/
1814
/7/1
821
/7/1
828
/7/1
84/
8/18
18/8
/18
25/8
/18
11/8
/18
20182017
New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales
Beef70.2%
Dairy29.8% Beef
Dairy
20172018
year
-on-
year
cha
nge
(%)
Chops/Steaks
10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales
(YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
head
0
200
400
500
700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)
190
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
205
210
185
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
170
Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)
100
300
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Steers Heifers Young Bulls
Sour
ce: D
efra
1652019
20172018
150
165
175
Leg Roasting Joint
Shoulder Roasting Joint
MinceStewing
Other
ValueVolume
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)
Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)
Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Total UK beef production September ’19 = 76,800 tonnes
+6.5% y-o-y
SHEEPThe Welsh average liveweight SQQ at auction continues to follow the seasonal trend and stood at 169.3p/kg for the week ending 02 November. The current price is an increase of 7.4p on the week and is above year-earlier levels for the first time since the start of August (up 3.4p). Additionally, the price is almost 12p above the 5-year average (2014-18 average: 157.4p/kg). Cull ewe prices at auction markets in Wales for the week ending 02 November stood at £48.40 – up £1.70 on the previous week, and £7.20 above year-earlier levels. Deadweight prices in GB stood at 377.1p/kg for the week ending 02 November, with the price gap between this year and last narrowing even further to 9.6p.
Total sheep throughput at UK abattoirs stood at 1.3million head for September – 6.4% below August, but 7.6% above the corresponding month a year earlier. Prime lamb made up 89% of the total throughput for the month, with cull ewes and ram throughput being 13.5% higher than September last year. When looking at the May to September period this year, prime lamb numbers are 5.1% above year-earlier levels at 5.4million head. Sheep meat production for the month was up on September last year following higher throughput for both prime lambs and cull sheep, whilst carcase weights remained steady on the year.
Total UK sheep
meat production September ’19 = 26,900 tonnes
+8.4% y-o-y
(’000
hea
d)
100Steers Heifers
275
450
625
800
Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)
Sour
ce: D
efra
Young Bulls
170
190
195
175
p/kg
lw
200
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime cattle slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
110100
140
160
120
180
Sour
ce: D
efra
140
200
220240
160
p/kg
lw
260
280
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime lamb slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
800
700
1000
1100
1300
Sour
ce: D
efra
145
155
135
p/kg
lw 160
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)
140
(000
) hea
d
UK clean pig slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
650
600
750
900
800So
urce
: Def
ra
1000
170
150
120
1200
900 700
850
950
Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)
(000
) hea
d
5
0
15
25
35
10
20
30
31/3
/18
7/4/
1814
/4/1
821
/4/1
828
/4/1
85/
5/18
12/5
/18
19/5
/18
26/5
/18
2/6/
189/
6/18
16/6
/18
23/6
/18
30/6
/18
7/7/
1814
/7/1
821
/7/1
828
/7/1
84/
8/18
18/8
/18
25/8
/18
11/8
/18
20182017
New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales
Beef70.2%
Dairy29.8% Beef
Dairy
20172018
year
-on-
year
cha
nge
(%)
Chops/Steaks
10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales
(YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
head
0
200
400
500
700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)
190
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
205
210
185
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
170
Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)
100
300
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Steers Heifers Young Bulls
Sour
ce: D
efra
1652019
20172018
150
165
175
Leg Roasting Joint
Shoulder Roasting Joint
MinceStewing
Other
ValueVolume
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)
Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)
Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
PIGSThe EU-spec All Pig Price (APP) in GB stood at 158.9p/kg for the week ending 26 October – up slightly on the previous week (+0.3p), and 9.9p above the corresponding week a year earlier. Prices rose above year-earlier levels during the end of June, with this upward trend following on since then and prices sitting 10.4p above the 5-year average (2014-18 average: 148.5p/kg). The 30kg average weaner price in GB was not available for the week ending 26 October, whilst the 7kg average price stood at £41.10/head (+10.21% on year-earlier levels).
Total pig throughputs at UK abattoirs stood at 906,600 head for September, which is 5.3% below throughputs recorded for August but 4.2% above year-earlier levels. Clean pig throughput stood at 887,100 head for September – down 5.5% on the month, but up 4.5% on the year. Pork production for the month was up 5.9% due to higher throughputs and heavier carcases coming forward – with total production so far this year up 2.0% on year-earlier levels. Following increased demand in the Asian region due to the African Swine Fever, UK pork exports to China during the first 9 months of this year are up 86.7% on the corresponding period last year.
Total UK pork production September ’19 = 77,700 tonnes
+5.9% y-o-y
(’000
hea
d)
100Steers Heifers
275
450
625
800
Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)
Sour
ce: D
efra
Young Bulls
170
190
195
175
p/kg
lw
200
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime cattle slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
110100
140
160
120
180
Sour
ce: D
efra
140
200
220240
160
p/kg
lw
260
280
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales
180
(000
) hea
d
UK prime lamb slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
800
700
1000
1100
1300
Sour
ce: D
efra
145
155
135
p/kg
lw 160
Apr Jun
Aug Oct
Dec
Feb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)
140
(000
) hea
d
UK clean pig slaughterings
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
DecFeb
May Ju
l
Sep
NovJan
Mar
650
600
750
900
800
Sour
ce: D
efra
1000
170
150
120
1200
900 700
850
950
Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)
(000
) hea
d
5
0
15
25
35
10
20
30
31/3
/18
7/4/
1814
/4/1
821
/4/1
828
/4/1
85/
5/18
12/5
/18
19/5
/18
26/5
/18
2/6/
189/
6/18
16/6
/18
23/6
/18
30/6
/18
7/7/
1814
/7/1
821
/7/1
828
/7/1
84/
8/18
18/8
/18
25/8
/18
11/8
/18
20182017
New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales
Beef70.2%
Dairy29.8% Beef
Dairy
20172018
year
-on-
year
cha
nge
(%)
Chops/Steaks
10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales
(YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
head
0
200
400
500
700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)
190
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
205
210
185
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
2019
20172018
170
Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)
100
300
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Steers Heifers Young Bulls
Sour
ce: D
efra
1652019
20172018
150
165
175
Leg Roasting Joint
Shoulder Roasting Joint
MinceStewing
Other
ValueVolume
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)
Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)
Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel