Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D. Stacy L. Willett, M.A....
-
Upload
antonia-rice -
Category
Documents
-
view
224 -
download
0
Transcript of Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D. Stacy L. Willett, M.A....
Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation
Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D.Stacy L. Willett, M.A.
Associate Professors- Emergency ManagementDepartment of Public Service Technology
The University of Akron
Discussion Topics
Definitions and ConceptsOverview of Processes
Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk Measurements
Hazard Analysis Variations General CARVER Method Iowa Example
Hazards
Embraces a societal threatNaturalAnthropogenic Non-Intentional
(Technological)Anthropogenic Intentional
Vulnerability
Combination of risk and responseLack of ability to respond or lack of response
can increase vulnerabilityWell-thought out plans aiding all segments of
society can reduce vulnerability
Determine Vulnerability
Risk: predicted impact a hazard would have on people, services, and specific facilities in the community
Quantifying riskSurveying risk
Risk
Combination of:1. Probability that an event will occur2. Consequences of its occurrenceRisk= probability of occurrence x
vulnerabilityDHS Formula: terrorism
Risk=Asset Value x Threat Rating x Vulnerability Rating
Quantifying Risk
Identify elements of the community potentially at risk from a specific hazard
Develop response prioritiesAssign severity ratingsCompile risk data into community risk
profiles
Surveying Risk
Priority 1: Life SafetyPriority 2: Essential facilitiesPriority 3: Critical infrastructure
Prioritizing Risks
Assign each hazard a severity rating or risk index
Predicts expected damage from hazardQuantifies expected impact of hazard on
people, essential facilities, property, and response assets
Asset-Based and Geographically Based Risk Analysis
Asset Based: Threat: adversary’s intent to attack specific target and
capability to execute attack Vulnerability: vulnerability of specific asset to specific
type of attackConsequences: results from loss of particular type of asset
given specific type of attackGeographically Based:
Threat: linked to particular geographic areaVulnerability: intrinsic vulnerabilities of an area to attack
related to geography or other attributesConsequences: broad consequences to area’s population or
economy following an attack
Hazard Analysis
Identifies: Incidence of particular hazards Severity of hazards Probability of reoccurrence
Examines full range of hazards Natural Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological) Anthropogenic Intentional (Civil/Political)
Additional Considerations in Hazard Assessment
Other conditions may increase the estimated severity of a hazard Population density Sheltering facilities Special populations Seasonal business Cultural differences (such as language barriers)
HA: Used to Lessen Critical Facility Impact
First of four phases Is it?
Impact is reduced, deflected or avoidedRecognizing hazards and impactsProtect facilities and service delivery
What are some critical facilities? Does their placement conflict with the hazard assessment data?
Should inform placement!
Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis
What can occurRecurrence intervalPotential damageImpacts to the communityVulnerability of community to specific hazard
Hazard Analysis/Risk Assessment
DetermineVulnerability
IdentifyHazards
ApplyScenarios
DevelopEnvironment/
CommunityProfile
ProfileHazards
Risk assessment involves researching the hazards that threaten the community and ranking them according to the risks they pose and the areas and infrastructure that are vulnerable to damage from an event involving the hazards. The outcome is a written hazard analysis that quantifies the overall risk to the community from each hazard.
•List of Hazards
•Magnitude•Frequency•Geographic extent•Duration•Seasonal patterns•Speed of onset
•Geography•Assets•Property•Infrastructure•Demographics•Response Organizations
•Quantify Risk•Set Response Priorities•Assign Severity Index•Prioritize Risks
•Initial warning•Potential total impact•Sector specific impacts•Overall consequences•Response actions and resources needed
Severity Ratings
SeveritySeverity CharacteristicsCharacteristics
CatastrophicCatastrophic •Multiple deaths. Multiple deaths. •Complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more. •More than 50 percent of property severely damaged. More than 50 percent of property severely damaged.
CriticalCritical •Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability. Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability. •Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks. •More than 25 percent of property is severely damaged. More than 25 percent of property is severely damaged.
LimitedLimited •Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability. Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability. •Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week. •More than 10 percent of property is severely damaged. More than 10 percent of property is severely damaged.
Negligible Negligible •Injuries and/or illness treatable with first aid. Injuries and/or illness treatable with first aid. •Minor quality of life lost. Minor quality of life lost. •Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less. Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less. •Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged. Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged.
CharacteristicCharacteristic SeveritySeverity
MagnitudeMagnitude 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Frequency of OccurrenceFrequency of Occurrence 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Speed of OnsetSpeed of Onset 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Community ImpactCommunity Impact 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Special CharacteristicsSpecial Characteristics 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Total RiskTotal Risk 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Hazard:___________________
CharacteristicCharacteristic SeveritySeverity
MagnitudeMagnitude
11
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Frequency of OccurrenceFrequency of Occurrence
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Speed of OnsetSpeed of Onset
33
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Community ImpactCommunity Impact
33
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Special CharacteristicsSpecial Characteristics
33
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Total RiskTotal Risk
12 / 2.412 / 2.4
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Hazard: Tornado
CharacteristicCharacteristic SeveritySeverity
MagnitudeMagnitude
11
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Frequency of OccurrenceFrequency of Occurrence
44
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Speed of OnsetSpeed of Onset
33
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Community ImpactCommunity Impact
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Special CharacteristicsSpecial Characteristics
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Total RiskTotal Risk
12 / 2.412 / 2.4
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Hazard Example: Terrorism
CharacteristicCharacteristic SeveritySeverity
MagnitudeMagnitude
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Frequency of OccurrenceFrequency of Occurrence
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Speed of OnsetSpeed of Onset
11
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Community ImpactCommunity Impact
33
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Special CharacteristicsSpecial Characteristics
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Total RiskTotal Risk
10 / 210 / 2
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Hazard Example: Structure Fire
CharacteristicCharacteristic SeveritySeverityMagnitudeMagnitude
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Frequency of OccurrenceFrequency of Occurrence
44
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Speed of OnsetSpeed of Onset
33
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Community ImpactCommunity Impact
22
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Special CharacteristicsSpecial Characteristics
33
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Total RiskTotal Risk
14 / 14 / 2.82.8
1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic
2.2. CriticalCritical
3.3. LimitedLimited
4.4. NegligibleNegligible
Hazard Example: Radiological Incident
Prioritized Results
Tornado 2.4Terrorism 2.4Radiological Incident 2.8Structure Fire 2.0
1. Catastrophic 2. Critical3. Limited4. Negligible
Example of Risk Overview
Low
Low
Medium
Med
ium
High
Hig
h
Pro
babi
lity
of O
ccur
renc
e
Severity of Consequences
Little concern
Moderate Concern
Major Concern
Immediate and Severe Concern
Chemical Spill
Flood
Nuclear Plant
Pandemic
Tornado
Lightning
Earthquake
Scenarios
Helps to identify situations that may exist in a disaster
Used to help ensure preparedness if hazard occurs
Scenario Composition
Initial warningPotential overall impactPotential impact on specific sectorsPotential consequences (damage, casualties,
loss of services)Action and resources necessary
General HA Example : Hazard Rating Table
Hazard Likelihood Potential Impact on Population
Potential Impact on Property
EOP coverage
0 = None
1 = Rare
2 = Occasional
3 = Frequent
0 = None
1 = Limited
2 = Substantial
3 = Major
0 = None
1 = Limited
2 = Substantial
3 = Major
0 = None
1 = Limited
2 = Substantial
3 = Full
Flood 1 1 3 3
Tornado 1 3 3 3
HAZUS
Hazard loss estimating softwareFloods, earthquakes, hurricanesPhysical damageEconomic lossSocial impacts
CARVER + Shock Software
Adapted from military version (CARVER)Used to assess vulnerabilities or
infrastructure within a system to attackManufacturing and Agricultural versionsAvailable from FDA
CARVER + Shock Assessment
Six attributes to evaluate potential of targetCriticality: measure of public health and
economic impacts of attackAccessibility: ability to physically access and
egress targetRecuperability: ease of system to recoverVulnerability: ease of accomplishing attackEffect: amount of direct loss from attack
measured by production lossRecognizability: ease of identifying target
Shock
Combined health, economic, and psychological impacts of attack
Potential impacts (even national)Psychological impacts increased if historical,
cultural, religious, or symbolic significanceImpacts increased if victims “sensitive”
populations such as children or elderlyEconomic damage such as lower economic
activity, higher unemployment
CARVER + Shock Rankings
Lower vulnerability (1-2)Higher vulnerability (9-10)Evaluate each attribute“Interview” and process flow diagram methodTotal scores range from 7-70User can determine most vulnerable parts of
infrastructure and prioritize most susceptible areas
Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment
Multi-step processIdentify hazardsCommunity profileProfile hazard eventsCascading event (secondary hazards)Prioritize hazards
Iowa HA Model : Measure Criticality and Vulnerability Separately
Criticality Elements Sub-element Sub-elementElement Subtotal
Mass Casualty Risk Effect (1-5) X Severity (1-5) 1-25
Emergency Response Function Time loss (1-5) X Jurisdiction Population (1-5) 1-25
Economic Impact Scope (1-5) X Impact (1-5) 1-25
Key Military Installations Time loss (1-5) X Facility Function (1-5) 1-25
Critical Infrastructure Time loss (1-5) X Population Impacted (1-5) 1-25
Continuity of Government Time loss (1-5) X Population Impacted (1-5) 1-25
Symbolic Asset Time loss (1-5) X Level of recognition (1-5) 1-25
Criticality Subtotal (x) 7-175
The criticality assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specific criteria. The criticality subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the X-axis of a coordinate system.
Iowa Model: Vulnerability Calculation
The vulnerability assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. The process identifies exposures in physical structures, personnel protection systems, and production processes. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specific criteria. The vulnerability subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the Y-axis of a coordinate system.
Vulnerability Elements Sub-element Sub-elementElement Subtotal
Visibility and Attendance Level of recognition (1-5) X Attendance (1-5) 1-25
Access to the Asset Access Proximity (1-5) X Security Level (1-5) 1-25
Site Specific Hazards Receptor Impacts (1-5) X Volume (1-5) 1-25
Vulnerability Subtotal (y) 3-75
Chart (X=Criticality, Y= Vulnerability)
Quadrant IV
High Vulnerability & Low Criticality
Quadrant I
High Criticality & High
Vulnerability
Quadrant III
Low Vulnerability & Low Criticality
Quadrant II
High Criticality & Low
Vulnerability
Asset Score = [Criticality, Vulnerability] = [((x/175)*100), ((y/75)*100)] = [X, Y]
Vu
lnera
bil
ity
(Y)
Criticality (X)
Conclusion
While Hazard Analysis is a general concept, it is flexible in complexity and measurements
There are many variations of hazard analysis depending on the c0mmunity focus
Hazard Analysis should be conducted annually for resource and preparedness assessment
Sources
FEMA IS-235: http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/downloads/IS235.pdf
HAZUS: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_training.shtm
CARVER+Shock: http://www.fda.gov/Food/FoodDefense/CARVER/default.htm
Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment: http://www.iowahomelandsecurity.org/Partners/CountyCoordinators/Planning/IowaHazardAnalysisandRiskAssessment/tabid/161/Default.aspx