Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL...

8
Gold: Developer / Explorer GCY.asx Speculative Buy Share Price Valuation $0.77 Price Target (12 month) $0.86 Brief Business Description: Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion Chairman & MD Top Shareholders Board & Management 9.5% Commonw ealth Bank of Australia 5.8% Company Address Issued Capital 433.8m - fully diluted Market Cap - fully diluted A$41.6m A$20.0m A$40.0m EV EV/Resource Au oz A$68/oz EV/Reserve Au oz A$262/oz Prelim. (A$m) FY17a FY18e FY19e Prod (koz Au) 0.0 9.6 112.0 Op Cash Flw -2.3 -6.6 52.0 Norm NPAT -0.7 -15.2 61.4 CF/Share (cps) -0.7 -1.6 12.0 EPS (cps) -0.5 -2.9 10.9 P/E -90.6 -14.6 3.9 Au Resources (Moz) 2.35 Reserves (Moz) 0.61 Mike Millikan Resources Analyst Ph: +61 8 9268 2805 E: [email protected] West Perth, WA, 6005 WA gold developer & explorer focused on the +1.3Moz Dalgaranga project and the +1Moz Glenburgh project. Near-term gold producer. Mike Joyce (Chairman) 8 Dec 2017 $0.420 Gold developer and explorer Mike Dunbar (MD) Level 1, 41-47 Colin Street Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital raisings in the past 12 months for Gascoyne Resources Limited ("Gascoyne"), for w hich it has earned fees. Hartleys has also provided corporate advice w ithin the past 12 months and continues to provide corporate advice to Gascoyne, for w hich it has earned fees and continues to earn fees. 441.6m A$182.2m A$185.5m A$160.6m Cash (31 Dec 17e) Debt (31 Dec 17e) Debt (undrawn) GASCOYNE RESOURCES LTD (GCY) Dalgaranga debt executed with construction on track The construction of the Dalgaranga gold project in the Murchison region of WA remains on schedule and within budget, with GCY targeting first gold production in Q2 CY18. The Company recently completed a capital raise for A$21.5M to provide additional working capital during the construction period and for regional exploration, and has now executed a debt facility for A$60M. The completion of the debt facility has taken longer than we had previously anticipated but pleasingly the loan allows for early repayments, has assumed low interest rates and some flexibility on the use of free cash generated during the loan period. The term of the loan is 4.5 years and includes a hedging obligation, both mandatory (~40koz for first 4 years) and discretionary. GCY has already forward sold 82koz at an average gold price of A$1,660/oz, providing floor protection to gold price (AUD) volatility and is ~13% of the current mine plan. Total pre-production capital costs for Dalgaranga is estimated at ~A$98M, with the new debt facility to provide ~63% of funds and the balance from cash reserves. We would estimate construction spend through to the end of December to be ~A$48M and now forecast cash at CY17 end to be ~A$42M, with debt of ~A$20M, as such a further ~A$50M is required to complete construction. First debt drawdown has been flagged for mid December 2017. We would estimate a cash position of ~A$22M and debt ~A$60M (net debt A$38M) upon production, assuming normal admin and increased exploration spend (A$4M/Q) in 1H CY18 and construction costs within or under budget. Improved mine plan through Sly Fox addition The Dalgaranga mine plan has been updated by the addition of the Sly Fox deposit. The mining inventory now contains 16.2Mt grading 1.3g/t Au for 652koz from Gilbeys, Golden Wings and Sly Fox, with 94% from reserves (15.3Mt @ 1.25g/t Au for 612koz) and 6% from Inferred resources within the pits (40koz @ 1.4g/t Au). We continue to assume a mine life in excess of 7 years. The maiden Sly Fox reserve (26koz @ 1.3g/t Au) is considered interim, with further growth anticipated as the deposit remains open. The upper parts of the deposit are expected to be mined in the first 17 months of production, providing additional oxide ores to lift throughput capacity in the early years (from 2.5Mtpa towards 3Mtpa) and deferring some open pit waste movement for improved capital payback. The increase in softer material in the early production years is expected to lift annualised production with potential to grow to +120koz from ~100koz in the first few years. Construction progressing well for gold production Q2 CY18 Construction is progressing well at Dalgaranga with the site works currently on schedule and within budget. NRW Holdings has been selected as the preferred mining contractors for the open pit operation, which is expected to commence in March 2018. We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation on GCY with a price target of $0.86/s. Our GCY NAV is $0.77/s, and spot NAV is $0.81/s. With first gold production targeted for Q2 CY18, the Company remains one of the best value AUD gold developers on the ASX. Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys’ regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys website www.hartleys.com.au 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 . .5 1. 1.5 2. 2.5 3. 3.5 Dec-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Dec-16 Volume - RHS GCY Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS A$ M Gascoyne Res Ltd Source: IRESS

Transcript of Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL...

Page 1: Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and

Page 1 of 8

Gascoyne Resources Ltd (GCY)

Gold

: D

evelo

per

/ E

xp

lore

r

GCY.asxSpeculative Buy

Share Price

Valuation $0.77

Price Target (12 month) $0.86

Brief Business Description:

Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion

Chairman & MD

Top Shareholders

Board & Management 9.5%

Commonw ealth Bank of Australia 5.8%

Company Address

Issued Capital 433.8m

- fully diluted

Market Cap

- fully diluted

A$41.6m

A$20.0m

A$40.0m

EV

EV/Resource Au oz A$68/oz

EV/Reserve Au oz A$262/oz

Prelim. (A$m) FY17a FY18e FY19e

Prod (koz Au) 0.0 9.6 112.0

Op Cash Flw -2.3 -6.6 52.0

Norm NPAT -0.7 -15.2 61.4

CF/Share (cps) -0.7 -1.6 12.0

EPS (cps) -0.5 -2.9 10.9

P/E -90.6 -14.6 3.9

A u

Resources (Moz) 2.35

Reserves (Moz) 0.61

Mike Millikan

Resources Analyst

Ph: +61 8 9268 2805

E: [email protected]

West Perth, WA, 6005

WA gold developer & explorer focused on the

+1.3Moz Dalgaranga project and the +1Moz

Glenburgh project. Near-term gold producer.

Mike Joyce (Chairman)

8 Dec 2017

$0.420

Gold developer and explorer

Mike Dunbar (MD)

Level 1, 41-47 Colin Street

Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital

raisings in the past 12 months for Gascoyne

Resources Limited ("Gascoyne"), for w hich it has

earned fees. Hartleys has also provided corporate

advice w ithin the past 12 months and continues to

provide corporate advice to Gascoyne, for w hich it

has earned fees and continues to earn fees.

441.6m

A$182.2m

A$185.5m

A$160.6m

Cash (31 Dec 17e)

Debt (31 Dec 17e)

Debt (undrawn)

GASCOYNE RESOURCES LTD (GCY)

Dalgaranga debt executed with construction on track The construction of the Dalgaranga gold project in the Murchison region of WA

remains on schedule and within budget, with GCY targeting first gold

production in Q2 CY18.

The Company recently completed a capital raise for A$21.5M to provide

additional working capital during the construction period and for regional

exploration, and has now executed a debt facility for A$60M.

The completion of the debt facility has taken longer than we had previously

anticipated but pleasingly the loan allows for early repayments, has assumed

low interest rates and some flexibility on the use of free cash generated during

the loan period. The term of the loan is 4.5 years and includes a hedging

obligation, both mandatory (~40koz for first 4 years) and discretionary. GCY

has already forward sold 82koz at an average gold price of A$1,660/oz,

providing floor protection to gold price (AUD) volatility and is ~13% of the

current mine plan.

Total pre-production capital costs for Dalgaranga is estimated at ~A$98M, with

the new debt facility to provide ~63% of funds and the balance from cash

reserves. We would estimate construction spend through to the end of

December to be ~A$48M and now forecast cash at CY17 end to be ~A$42M,

with debt of ~A$20M, as such a further ~A$50M is required to complete

construction. First debt drawdown has been flagged for mid December 2017.

We would estimate a cash position of ~A$22M and debt ~A$60M (net debt

A$38M) upon production, assuming normal admin and increased exploration

spend (A$4M/Q) in 1H CY18 and construction costs within or under budget.

Improved mine plan through Sly Fox addition The Dalgaranga mine plan has been updated by the addition of the Sly Fox

deposit. The mining inventory now contains 16.2Mt grading 1.3g/t Au for

652koz from Gilbeys, Golden Wings and Sly Fox, with 94% from reserves

(15.3Mt @ 1.25g/t Au for 612koz) and 6% from Inferred resources within the

pits (40koz @ 1.4g/t Au). We continue to assume a mine life in excess of 7

years.

The maiden Sly Fox reserve (26koz @ 1.3g/t Au) is considered interim, with

further growth anticipated as the deposit remains open. The upper parts of the

deposit are expected to be mined in the first 17 months of production,

providing additional oxide ores to lift throughput capacity in the early years

(from 2.5Mtpa towards 3Mtpa) and deferring some open pit waste movement

for improved capital payback. The increase in softer material in the early

production years is expected to lift annualised production with potential to

grow to +120koz from ~100koz in the first few years.

Construction progressing well for gold production Q2 CY18 Construction is progressing well at Dalgaranga with the site works currently

on schedule and within budget. NRW Holdings has been selected as the

preferred mining contractors for the open pit operation, which is expected to

commence in March 2018.

We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation on GCY with a price target

of $0.86/s. Our GCY NAV is $0.77/s, and spot NAV is $0.81/s. With first gold

production targeted for Q2 CY18, the Company remains one of the best value

AUD gold developers on the ASX.

Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000

Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single

factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys’ regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys

website www.hartleys.com.au

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

.

.5

1.

1.5

2.

2.5

3.

3.5

Dec-17Aug-17Apr-17Dec-16

Volume - RHS

GCY Shareprice - LHS

Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS

A$ M

Gascoyne Res Ltd

Source: IRESS

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Hartleys Limited Gascoyne Resources Limited (GCY) 8 December 2017

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SUMMARY MODEL

Gascoyne Res Ltd Share Price

GCY $0.420 Speculative Buy

Key Market Information Directors Company InformationShare Price $0.420 Mike Joyce (Chairman) Level 1, 41-47 Colin StreetMarket Capitalisation - ordinary A$182m Mike Dunbar (MD) West Perth, WA, 6005Net Cash (debt) $22m Ian Kerr (Executive Director) +61 8 9481 3434

Market Capitalisation - fully diluted A$182m Stan Macdonald (Non-Exec Director) +61 8 9481 0411

EV A$156m Graham Riley (Non-Exec Director) www.gascoynesources.com.au

Issued Capital 433.8m Gordan Dunbar (Non-Exec Director)Options 7.85m John den Dryver (Non-Exec Director) Peter Sperring (Registered Manager) Karl Webber (Exploration Man)Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. all options) 441.6m Sally-Anne Layman (Non-Exec Director) Julian Goldsworthy (Geology Manager) David Lim (CFO)Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. all options and new capital) 441.6m

Top Shareholders (est) m shares %Valuation $0.77 Board & Management 41.2 9.5%

12month price target $0.86 1 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 25.0 5.8%2

P&L Unit 30 Jun 15 30 Jun 16 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 3

Net Revenue A$m 0.1 0.1 0.0 15.6 194.7 4 Reserves & Resources Mt g/t Au KozTotal Costs A$m -3.4 -1.3 -3.1 -12.4 -123.6 5 TOTAL RESOURCE 52.6 1.4 2,347 EBITDA A$m -3.2 -1.2 -3.1 3.2 71.1 6     Measured 5.7 1.8 324 - margin - - - 21% 37% 7     Indicated 20.5 1.4 915 Depreciation/Amort A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 -14.1 -21.8 8     Inferred 26.3 1.3 1,108

EBIT A$m -3.3 -1.2 -3.1 -10.9 49.3 9 Dalgaranga 31.1 1.3 1,320 Net Interest A$m 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 -2.1 Glenburgh 21.3 1.5 1,000 Pre-Tax Profit A$m -3.3 -1.2 -3.2 -11.7 47.2 10 Reserve 15.3 1.25 612 Tax Expense A$m 0.3 0.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 Mining Inventory 16.2 1.3 652 Normalised NPAT A$m -3.5 -1.0 -0.7 -15.2 61.4Abnormal Items A$m 0.6 0.1 -0.8 3.5 -14.2 Production Summary Unit Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19Reported Profit A$m -2.9 -0.9 -1.5 -11.7 47.2 Mill Throughput Mt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8Minority A$m 0 0 0 0 0 Mined grade g/t - - - 1.3 1.4Profit Attrib A$m -2.9 -0.9 -1.5 -11.7 47.2 Combined Recovery & Payability % 0% 0% 0% 92% 92%

Gold (koz) 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 112.0

Balance Sheet Unit 30 Jun 15 30 Jun 16 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 Gold Equiv (koz) 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 112.0

Cash A$m 1.2 14.9 41.8 22.1 49.2 M&I Resource Conversion (non-reserve) % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 69.3% 73.6%

Other Current Assets A$m 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 26.3 Mine Life yr 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.3

Total Current Assets A$m 1.3 15.1 43.1 24.5 75.4Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 0.0 0.0 18.6 91.0 71.3 Costs Unit Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19Exploration A$m 21.2 24.5 38.4 46.4 55.4 Cost per milled tonne $A/t - - - 40.0 40.0

Investments/other A$m 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 EBITDA / tonne milled ore $A/t - - - 12.8 25.4

Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m 21.3 24.6 60.8 137.4 126.7 Total cash costs $A/oz - - - 1,288 1,104

Total Assets A$m 22.5 39.8 103.9 161.9 202.1 C1: Operating Cash Cost = (a) $A/oz - - - 1,040 1,000 (a) + Royalty = (b) $A/oz - - - 1,121 1,087

Short Term Borrowings A$m - - - - - C2: (a) + depreciation & amortisation = (c) $A/oz - - - 2,502 1,195

Other A$m 0.6 2.0 7.3 1.2 10.4 (a) + actual cash for development = (d) $A/oz - - - 1,872 1,099

Total Curr. Liabilities A$m 0.6 2.0 7.3 1.2 10.4 C3: (c) + Royalty $A/oz - - - 2,583 1,281

Long Term Borrowings A$m - - - 60.0 46.0 (d) + Royalty $A/oz - - - 1,953 1,185

Other A$m 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 All In Sustaining Costs (AISC) A$/oz - - - 2,253 1,289

Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m 0.0 0.0 0.5 60.4 46.4Total Liabilities A$m 0.7 2.1 7.8 61.6 56.7 Price Assumptions Unit Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19Net Assets A$m 21.9 37.7 96.1 100.3 145.4 AUDUSD A$/US$ 0.81 0.74 0.75 0.79 0.76Net Debt A$m -1.2 -14.9 -41.8 37.9 -3.2 Gold US$/oz 1187 1182 1239 1280 1325

Gold A$/oz 1473 1608 1643 1624 1738

Cashflow Unit 30 Jun 15 30 Jun 16 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 Hedging Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19Operating Cashflow A$m -0.3 -0.4 -2.5 -3.9 56.3 Hedges maturing? No No No No NoIncome Tax Paid A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Interest & Other A$m 0.0 0.0 0.1 -2.8 -4.2 Sensitivity AnalysisOperating Activities A$m -0.3 -0.4 -2.3 -6.6 52.0 Valuation FY19 NPAT

Base Case 0.77 47.2Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 -86.5 -2.0 Spot Prices 0.81 (6.2%) 39.0 (-17.3%)Exploration and Devel. A$m -1.5 -2.6 -7.6 -8.0 -9.0 Spot USD/AUD 0.75, Gold $1248/oz.

Other A$m -0.1 0.0 -15.9 0.0 0.0 AUDUSD +/--10% 0.61 / 0.96 (-20.9% / 25.4%) 30.1 / 61.5 (-36.2% / 30.1%)

Investment Activities A$m -1.5 -2.6 -23.5 -94.5 -11.0 Gold +/--10% 0.94 / 0.59 (22.9% / -23.0%) 60.1 / 28.4 (27.2% / -39.8%)Production +/--10% 0.95 / 0.58 (23.9% / -24.0%) 60.7 / 27.5 (28.6% / -41.9%)

Borrowings A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 -14.0 Operating Costs +/--10% 0.67 / 0.86 (-12.3% / 12.3%) 35.8 / 55.1 (-24.1% / 16.6%)Equity or "tbc capital" A$m 2.0 16.7 52.7 21.5 0.0Dividends Paid A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Unpaid CapitalFinancing Activities A$m 2.0 16.7 52.7 81.5 -14.0 Year Expires No. (m) $m Avg price % ord

30-Jun-17 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0%

Net Cashflow A$m 0.2 13.7 26.9 -19.6 27.0 30-Jun-18 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0%30-Jun-19 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0%

Shares Unit 30 Jun 15 30 Jun 16 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30-Jun-20 7.9 4.3 0.55 1.8%Ordinary Shares - End m 158.3 252.7 377.2 433.8 433.8 TOTAL 7.9 4.3 0.55 1.8%Ordinary Shares - Weighted m 158.3 205.5 314.9 405.5 433.8Diluted Shares - Weighted m 158.3 205.5 314.9 405.5 433.8 Share Price Valuation (NAV) Risked Est. A$m Est. A$/share

100% Dalgaranga (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 12%) 241.4 0.55

Ratio Analysis Unit 30 Jun 15 30 Jun 16 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 100% Glenburgh (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 14%) 90.7 0.21Cashflow Per Share A$ cps -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -1.6 12.0 Other Exploration 75.0 0.17Cashflow Multiple x -201.8 -244.7 -57.3 -25.7 3.5 Corporate Overheads -10.3 -0.02Earnings Per Share A$ cps -1.8 -0.4 -0.5 -2.9 10.9 Net Cash (Debt) 21.6 0.05Price to Earnings Ratio x -22.8 -95.1 -90.6 -14.6 3.9 Tax (NPV future liability) -82.1 -0.19Dividends Per Share AUD - - - - - Options 2.3 0.01Dividend Yield % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hedges 0.0 0.00Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity % -6% -65% -77% 27% -2% Total 338.5 0.77Interest Cover X 179.7 25.5 na na 23.4Return on Equity % na na na na 42%

Analyst: Mike Millikan+61 8 9268 2805"tbc capital" could be equity or debt. Our valuation is risk-adjusted for how this may be obtained.Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research

8 December 2017

Last Updated: 08/12/2017

Page 3: Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and

Hartleys Limited Gascoyne Resources Limited (GCY) 8 December 2017

Page 3 of 8

DALGARANGA – NEAR TERM PRODUCER The Dalgaranga project is located ~65km northwest of Mt Magnet in the Murchison

region of Western Australia. The Dalgaranga project (100% GCY) covers the

majority of the Dalgaranga Greenstone Belt with the key deposits of Gilbeys, Golden

Wings and Sly Fox contained within a granted Mining Lease.

Fig. 1: Dalgaranga Project Location (LHS) and Site Layout (RHS)

Source: Gascoyne Resources Limited

Gilbeys has previously been mined as an open pit to a depth of ~120m below

surface, and represents a bulk mining open pit, with ~70m of largely free dig oxide

material with very soft ore providing low mining and processing costs. Golden Wings

is a planned higher grade open pit, which lifts the head grade at the start of the

operation.

The Dalgaranga mine plan has now been updated by the addition of the Sly Fox

deposit. The mining inventory now contains 16.2Mt grading 1.3g/t Au for 652koz

from Gilbeys, Golden Wings and Sly Fox, with 94% from reserves (15.3Mt @ 1.25g/t

Au for 612koz) and 6% from Inferred resources within the pits (40koz @ 1.4g/t Au).

We continue to assume a mine life in excess of 7 years.

The maiden Sly Fox reserve (26koz @ 1.3g/t Au) is considered interim, with further

growth anticipated as the deposit remains open. The upper parts of the deposit are

expected to be mined in the first 17 months of production, providing additional oxide

ores to lift throughput capacity in the early years (from 2.5Mtpa towards 3Mtpa) and

deferring some open pit waste movement for improved capital payback.

The increase in softer material in the early production years is expected to lift

annualised production with potential to grow to +120koz from ~100koz in the first

few years.

GCY has100% interest

in the Dalgaranga

Gold Project

The Dalgaranga mine

plan has now been

updated by the

addit ion of the Sly Fox

deposit

Page 4: Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and

Hartleys Limited Gascoyne Resources Limited (GCY) 8 December 2017

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VALUATION – UPDATED Our sum of parts valuation for GCY is largely based on the Dalgaranga FS and latest

mine plan and the Glenburgh PFS. The Company’s FS for the Dalgaranga project was

based on a 2.5Mtpa CIL processing plant, but the mill is expected to be able to process

soft oxide and transitional ores at higher throughput rate nearing 3.0Mtpa. The current

mine plan has some 652koz (now includes Sly Fox) from a reserve of 612koz. The

additional softer ores are expected to increase production in the first couple of years

at ~120kozpa. The pre-production capital costs are estimated at A$98M.

Fig. 2: Dalgaranga Initial Production Profile

Source: Gascoyne Resources Ltd; Hartleys Estimates; FS with simulated upside yet to be included

Our Dalgaranga production forecast is for average production +102kozpa at AISC of

~A$1,065/oz from mid CY18 for an initial mine life of just over 7 years, justified in our

opinion due to the recent resource/reserve updates and expectation of growing mining

inventory. We model GCY’s next development asset, Glenburgh, in-line with the PFS

(2013) producing ~70Kozpa at AISC of ~A$1,015/oz from CY20 for ~5 years mine life

(although we see potential upside).

Fig. 3: GCY Model Assumptions

Source: Hartleys Estimates

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Gra

de

(g

/t)

and

Mill

Th

rou

ghp

ut

Go

ld P

rod

uct

ion

Oz

Production Profile - Dalgaranga

Upside Oz Produced Gold (FS) Grade g/t (FS) Mtpa (FS) Upside Mtpa Grade g/t (new)

Dalgaranga Glenburgh

Capex - Total ($m) 100 80

Life of mine (LOM) Strip Ratio (x) 7.0x 8.0x

LOM ave head grade 1.3g/t 2.0g/t

LOM ave mill feed (Mt pa) 2.6Mt pa 1.2Mt pa

LOM Gold recovered grade g/t 1.2g/t 1.8g/t

LOM Au combined recovery & payability 91% 92%

Total Gold Sold 712Koz 355Koz

Total Gold Sold pa 102Koz pa 71Koz pa

Current Assumed Mine Life (yrs) 7yrs 5yrs

Commencement Date (qtr) Jun-18 Mar-20

LOM ave selling price (A$/oz gold ) A$1610 /oz A$1578 /oz

LOM ave C1 cash costs (A$/oz gold) A$792 /oz A$880 /oz

LOM ave AISC (A$/oz gold) A$1045 /oz A$1016 /oz

LOM annual net cash flow (A$m pa) A$40m pa A$18m pa

NPV12 - pre-tax (A$m) A$241.4m A$90.7m

We model Dalgaranga

with an average

throughput of 2.6Mtpa

plant producing over

+100kozpa at AISC of

~A$1,045/oz

We model Glenburgh

producing ~70Kozpa

at AISC of

~A$1,016/oz

We see good upside

potentia l to our

model l ing

Page 5: Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and

Hartleys Limited Gascoyne Resources Limited (GCY) 8 December 2017

Page 5 of 8

We believe GCY is well positioned for further brownfield exploration success at both

Dalgaranga and Glenburgh. We value the exploration upside potential with a nominal

(unchanged) A$75m.

Fig. 4: Hartleys Sum of Parts Valuation for GCY

Source: Hartleys Estimates

PRICE TARGET Our price target is based on our sum of parts valuation for Dalgaranga and Glenburgh,

weighted for our valuations at spot and consensus pricing.

Fig. 5: GCY Price Target Methodology

Source: Hartleys Estimates

Share Price Valuation (NAV) Risked Est. A$m Est. A$/share

100% Dalgaranga (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 12%) 241.4 0.55

100% Glenburgh (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 14%) 90.7 0.21

Other Exploration 75.0 0.17

Corporate Overheads -10.3 -0.02

Net Cash (Debt) 21.6 0.05

Tax (NPV future liability) -82.1 -0.19

Options 2.3 0.01

Hedges 0.0 0.00

Total 338.5 0.77

Price Target Methodology Weighting Spot 12 mth out

55% $0.77 $0.83

NPV base case at spot commodity and fx prices 45% $0.81 $0.89

Risk weighted composite $0.79

12 Months Price Target $0.86

Shareprice - Last $0.420

12 mth total return (% to 12mth target + dividend) 104%

NPV base case

We assume a nominal

A$75m value for

explorat ion upside

Our latest GCY NAV is

A$0.77/s

Our latest spot NAV is

also $0.81/s

Hart leys 12 month

price target is $0.86/s

Page 6: Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and

Hartleys Limited Gascoyne Resources Limited (GCY) 8 December 2017

Page 6 of 8

EV/EBITDA BANDS

Fig. 6: Using Hartleys base case commodity forecasts

Source: Hartleys Estimates, IRESS

Fig. 7: Using spot commodity prices

Source: Hartleys Estimates, IRESS

.00

.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

GCY Actual

Hartleys Target

8x EV/EBITDA

6x EV/EBITDA

4x EV/EBITDA

2x EV/EBITDA

1x EV/EBITDA

Shareprice

.00

.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

GCY Actual

8x EV/EBITDA

6x EV/EBITDA

4x EV/EBITDA

2x EV/EBITDA

1x EV/EBITDA

Shareprice

Page 7: Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and

Hartleys Limited Gascoyne Resources Limited (GCY) 8 December 2017

Page 7 of 8

RECOMMENDATION & RISKS

RISKS

Fig. 8: Key assumptions and risks for valuation Assumption Risk of not realising

assumption Risk to valuation if

assumption is incorrect

Comment

Dalgaranga Project Low Meaningful GCY is leveraged to the success of the Dalgaranga project. We model in line with the Dalgaranga FS but have made adjustments to

early plant throughputs and mining inventory as per the latest mine plan. If the project varies

largely from these metrics our valuation will be at risk

Model parameters Moderate Meaningful We have made a number of assumptions, largely

based of development studies, in our valuation of GCY, changes in these assumptions can change

our valuation to both the upside and downside

Exploration upside potential Moderate Low We assume exploration upside at Dalgaranga

and Glenburgh. Some downside risk to our valuation exists if GCY has no further exploration

success

Development Risk Moderate High All development projects have risks. Dalgaranga

is somewhat negated by previous operating data and mining. The FS is to a high quality and is

considered robust to enable funding.

Funding Risk Moderate High GCY has raised new equity to fund some of the project development costs for Dalgaranga. Debt financing is nearing completion with financiers

mandated. At this stage first production is targeted for Q2 CY18.

Conclusion GCY is trading at a discount to our sum of parts valuation, with project valuations based largely on development studies. Dalgaranga is development ready, but construction is subject to financing

(debt) which we believe should be achieved in the near-term.

Source: Hartleys Research

Page 8: Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital ... · Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and

Page 8 of 8

HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY Research Trent Barnett Head of Research +61 8 9268 3052

Mike Millikan Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 2805

John Macdonald Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 3020

Paul Howard Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 3045

Aiden Bradley Research Analyst +61 8 9268 2876

Michael Scantlebury Junior Analyst +61 8 9268 2837

Janine Bell Research Assistant +61 8 9268 2831

Corporate Finance Dale Bryan Director & Head of

Corp Fin.

+61 8 9268 2829

Richard Simpson Director +61 8 9268 2824

Ben Crossing Director +61 8 9268 3047

Ben Wale Associate Director +61 8 9268 3055

Stephen Kite Associate Director +61 8 9268 3050

Scott Weir Associate Director +61 8 9268 2821

Scott Stephens Associate Director +61 8 9268 2819

Rhys Simpson Manager +61 8 9268 2851

Registered Office

Level 6, 141 St Georges TcePostal Address:

PerthWA 6000 GPO Box 2777

Australia Perth WA 6001

PH:+61 8 9268 2888 FX: +61 8 9268 2800

www.hartleys.com.au [email protected]

Note: personal email addresses of company employees are

structured in the following

manner:[email protected]

Hartleys Recommendation Categories

Buy Share price appreciation anticipated.

Accumulate Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is

not as attractive as a “Buy”. Alternatively, for the share

price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an

uncertain or distant event. Analyst will often indicate a

price level at which it may become a “Buy”.

Neutral Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly

balanced.

Reduce /

Take profits

It is anticipated to be unlikely that there will be gains over

the investment time horizon but there is a possibility of

some price weakness over that period.

Sell Significant price depreciation anticipated.

No Rating No recommendation.

Speculative

Buy

Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that,

on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there

is at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful

possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to

significant share price reduction. Consequently, the

investment is considered high risk.

Institutional Sales Carrick Ryan +61 8 9268 2864

Justin Stewart +61 8 9268 3062

Simon van den Berg +61 8 9268 2867

Chris Chong +61 8 9268 2817

Digby Gilmour +61 8 9268 2814

Veronika Tkacova +61 8 9268 3053

Wealth Management Nicola Bond +61 8 9268 2840

Bradley Booth +61 8 9268 2873

Adrian Brant +61 8 9268 3065

Nathan Bray +61 8 9268 2874

Sven Burrell +61 8 9268 2847

Simon Casey +61 8 9268 2875

Tony Chien +61 8 9268 2850

Tim Cottee +61 8 9268 3064

David Cross +61 8 9268 2860

Nicholas Draper +61 8 9268 2883

John Featherby +61 8 9268 2811

Ben Fleay +61 8 9268 2844

James Gatti +61 8 9268 3025

John Goodlad +61 8 9268 2890

Andrew Gribble +61 8 9268 2842

David Hainsworth +61 8 9268 3040

Murray Jacob +61 8 9268 2892

Gavin Lehmann +61 8 9268 2895

Shane Lehmann +61 8 9268 2897

Steven Loxley +61 8 9268 2857

Andrew Macnaughtan +61 8 9268 2898

Scott Metcalf +61 8 9268 2807

David Michael +61 8 9268 2835

Jamie Moullin +61 8 9268 2856

Chris Munro +61 8 9268 2858

Michael Munro +61 8 9268 2820

Ian Parker +61 8 9268 2810

Matthew Parker +61 8 9268 2826

Charlie Ransom

(CEO)

+61 8 9268 2868

Mark Sandford +61 8 9268 3066

David Smyth +61 8 9268 2839

Greg Soudure +61 8 9268 2834

Sonya Soudure +61 8 9268 2865

Dirk Vanderstruyf +61 8 9268 2855

Samuel Williams +61 8 9268 3041

Jayme Walsh +61 8 9268 2828

Disclaimer/Disclosure

The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (“Hartleys”), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold

shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those securities.

Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising from any advice

mentioned in publications to clients.

Hartleys has assisted in the completion of capital raisings in the past 12 months for Gascoyne Resources Limited ("Gascoyne"), for which it has

earned fees. Hartleys has also provided corporate advice within the past 12 months and continues to provide corporate advice to Gascoyne, for

which it has earned fees and continues to earn fees.

Any financial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting

your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.

Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any financial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued.

Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in

negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law.