Harnessing the True Power of the Sun - Haas School of ...PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting PV...
Transcript of Harnessing the True Power of the Sun - Haas School of ...PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting PV...
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Harnessing the True Power of the Sun A Revolutionary Spectrum-Splitting CPV design
Berkeley; December 5th, 2014
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1 mile2 of Berkeley sunlight…
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1 mile2 of Berkeley sunlight…
¼ of U.S. energy consumption
< 1% of U.S. energy from solar
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Cell Efficiency
~ 99%
~ 20%
What if…
<< 1%
~ 40%
~ 65% Module
Efficiency
~ 35% ∝
~ 18% ∝
~ 50% ∝
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Cell Efficiency
~ 99%
~ 20%
What if…
<< 1%
~ 40%
~ 65% Module
Efficiency
~ 35% ∝
~ 18% ∝
~ 50% ∝
Atwater Research Group
Prof. Harry Atwater Howard Hughes Prof.
Applied Physics & Material Science
John Lloyd PhD student
Material Science
Sunita Darbe PhD student
Material Science
Cristofer Flowers PhD student
Chemical Engineering
funded research project
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Achieving 50% Module Efficiency
Module Efficiency 18%
Module Efficiency 35%
Module Efficiency* > 50%
*Goal
Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting
PV
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Achieving 50% Module Efficiency
Module Efficiency 18%
Module Efficiency 35%
Module Efficiency* > 50%
*Goal
Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum Splitting
PV
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Primary Concentrator
Secondary Concentrator
Tailored PV Cells Specialized Mirrors
How Does It Work?
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A Superior Technology in Most Dimensions
Efficiency
High-Temperature Performance
Choice of Light Absorber
Grid Integration/ Broad Shoulders
Single-Junction PV Concentrated PV Spectrum
Splitting PV
Module Assembly
Single-Junction PV
Concentrated PV
Spectrum Splitting PV
Hour of Day 10 12 14 16 17
Annu
al a
vera
ge P
ower
/ La
nd a
rea
[nor
mal
ized
]
1
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.2
0 8
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Explosive Solar Industry Growth
But higher efficiency CPV accounts for less than 1% of the market
0
50
100
150
200
2013 2014 2011
2009 2008 2010
+51%
2012
Installed Capacity [GW]
PV Cost Declines
45%
Sc
ale
11%
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A Brighter Future Expected for CPV
Greater technological
acceptance
Lower trackers cost
Favorable competitive
environment
CPV is projected to grow by 750% by 2020
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A Brighter Future Expected for CPV
Greater technological
acceptance
Lower trackers
cost
Favorable competitive
environment
Projects Larger than 2MW by 2012
• Greater Field Data • Better Informed
Certification Process
Projects Larger than 2MW after 2012
One Over 15
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A Brighter Future Expected for CPV
Greater technological
acceptance
Lower trackers
cost
Favorable competitive
environment
Scale Innovation
2-axis trackers market to triple
by 2016
Topper Sun projects to
reduce trackers cost 30% by 2015
20%-30% of system
cost
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Upward pressures on PV module prices
• Silicon prices will rise by 15% in 2015
• Supply and demand balance
A Brighter Future Expected for CPV
Greater technological
acceptance
Lower trackers
cost
Favorable competitive
environment
Grid integration
Grid integration challenges with PV
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Hour of Day
Lo
aD
[M
W]
5
4
3
2
Hawaii Non-solar generation requirement
Unstable grid Stable grid
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0.11 2.23 0.14
Value Propositions: first pilot
LCOE1 CAPEX2 Land Usage
Single-Junction PV
Concentrated PV
Spectrum-splitting PV
3.00
2.32
2.82
0.14
3.50
2.80
1.55
1 Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures
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0.11 2.23 0.14
Value Propositions: 2020
LCOE1 CAPEX2 Land Usage
Single-Junction PV
Concentrated PV
Spectrum-splitting PV 1 Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures
3.00
2.32
2.82
0.14
3.50
2.80
1.55 0.08
0.07
1.21
1.06
1.20
1.00
3.00
2.30
0.09 0.08 1.16
1.10
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1 Levelized cost of energy 2 Capital expenditures
0.11 2.23
0.14
Value Propositions: 2020
LCOE* CAPEX* Land Usage
Single-Junction PV
Concentrated PV
Spectrum-splitting PV
3.00
2.32
2.82
0.14
3.50
2.80
1.55 0.08
0.07
1.21
1.06
1.20
1.00
3.00
2.30
0.09 0.08
1.16 1.10
But How?
0.14
0.08
0.07
1.21
1.06
2.82
Decrease in tracker and
optical devices
costs at scale will be
the key drivers
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Initial Market Entry
Caribbean $0.30-.45
Pacific Islands $0.3-1.0
Philippines $0.36
Australia $0.31
Italy $0.28
Portugal $0.25
Chile $0.23
Spain $0.23
Singapore $0.21
1) High DNI 2) High WTP ($/kWh) 3) Land Constrained
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An Early Market: the Caribbean Islands
Millions without electricity
Average $0.39/kWh
High DNI (5.5 on average)
Competing uses for land
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Market Growth and Strong Capacity Additions…
4GW 1GW 0GW
Bahamas
Barbados
Trinidad & Tob
Grenada
Haiti
Jamaica
St-Lucia
Antigua & Barbuda
Forecast in 10 Years
Current
Selected islands generation capacity forecast
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… likely to come from renewables
“We realized that our dependency on fossil fuels was leading to political and economic instability. We had to act.”
--Aruba’s Energy Minister
“Renewables will provide new jobs and companies will be able to expand more easily.”
--St Lucia's Energy and Science Minister
“Renewables have come slowly to the Caribbean but the technology is now cheap enough and diverse enough to make it much easier to install.”
--Rocky Mountain Institute
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The Caribbean Markets... G
DP
/c
ap
Typical electricity rates
$0k
$20k
$40k
$60k
$80k
0c/kWh 5c/kWh 10c/kWh 15c/kWh 20c/kWh 25c/kWh 30c/kWh 35c/kWh 40c/kWh 45c/kWh 50c/kWh 55c/kWh
BVI
Bermuda
Grenada
Cayman Island Antigua & Barbuda
Dominican Rep. Jamaica
Barbados Martinique
US VI
Curacao
Haiti
St-Lucia
Bahamas
Trin&Tob
Guadeloupe
Aruba
1,000MW
High Electricity
Rates
Cost Competitive
Long term competitiveness threshold
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... Pain Points Are Aligned with our Value Prop
Land Scarcity
Growing Energy Demand
Costly Electricit
y
“A critical problem is the acute scarcity of arable land”
-- Office for Sustainable Development and Environment
“to keep up with demand from residential and tourism sectors, we will have to increase generation capacity solar is an option”
-- Barbados Light & Power, regulated utility in Barbados
“islands are heavily reliant on diesel and heavy fuel oil and are vulnerable to fluctuations in the supply and cost of
fossil fuels”
-- UN Climate Summit
High density Renewable & abundant Cost competitive
High efficiency concentrating solar can be part of the answer
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Licensing Manufacturing Partnership/ Joint Venture
Options
Reaching Scale Through Partnerships
Pilot Scale R&D
Best alignment
of competencies & resources
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The Next-Generation of High-Efficiency PV
Superior, cost-competitive technology
Favorable early market
Scale through partnerships
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Thank You
UC Berkeley C2M Team
Caltech Atwater Research
Group
Prof. Harry Atwater
Howard Hughes Prof. Applied Physics & Material Science
John Lloyd
PhD student Material Science
Sunita Darbe
PhD student Material Science
Cristofer Flowers
PhD student Chemical Engineering
Christian Pfab
Haas MBA
David Garfield
PhD student
Chemistry
Kurt Sheline
Haas MBA
Moulay Driss B. Mrani
Haas MBA
Dan Bu
PhD student
Eng & Ops.
Serge Ouedraogo
Haas MBA
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Questions?
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Backup
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Partnership Opportunities
Plant Development
Research & Development
Manufacturing Operations & Maintenance
Components
Fully integrated PV
CPV
&
System Integration
Developer
EPC
O&M