Harbor Aluminum Conference Chicago, IL June 9,...

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Harbor Aluminum Conference Chicago, IL June 9, 2016

Transcript of Harbor Aluminum Conference Chicago, IL June 9,...

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Cautions about forward-looking statements and other notices

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements. This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations,

estimates and projections about Real Industry, Inc. and its subsidiaries' (the “Company”) businesses and prospects, as well as management’s beliefs and certain

assumptions made by management. Words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “may,” “should,” “will” and variations of

these words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements speak only as of the date hereof and are subject to change. The Company

undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements

regarding estimated secondary aluminum demand in future periods; secondary aluminum outlook; scrap market outlook; automotive end use outlook as well as future

performance, growth, operating results, financial condition and prospects of the Company. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject

to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Accordingly, actual results could differ materially and adversely from those expressed in any

forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Important factors that may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to the Company’s ability to

successfully identify, consummate and integrate acquisitions and/or other businesses; changes in business or other market conditions; the difficulty of keeping

expense growth at modest levels while increasing revenues; the difficulty of making operating and cost improvements; the Company and its subsidiaries' ability to

successfully defend against current and new litigation and indemnification matters, as well as demands by investment banks for defense, indemnity, and contribution

claims; the Company’s ability to access and realize value from its federal net operating loss tax carryforwards; the Company’s ability to identify and recruit

management; the Company’s ability to maintain the listing requirements of the NASDAQ; and other risks detailed from time to time in the Company’s SEC filings,

including but not limited to the most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed on Forms 10-Q and 8-K.

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Real Alloy at a Glance

Global leader in third-party aluminum recycling

Headquarters in Beachwood, OH

30+ year operating history

Convert aluminum scrap and by-products into recycled

metal and specification alloys

24 facilities in North America and Europe

300+ customers worldwide

1,700+ employees globally

Summary financials as of or LTM 3/31/16:

— Volume invoiced over 2.6B pounds

— Revenues of $1.3B

— Leverage ratio of approximately 4.1

— Liquidity over $78M

Our mission is to responsibly capture the inherent economic value of aluminum recycling solutions

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Value Proposition

Cost advantages over primary aluminum

Closed-loop (maximizes consumption of

owned metal units and cheapest source of

metal)

Molten delivery reduces cost and can

expand capacity

Scale and expertise boost efficiency and

quality

Production and delivery flexibility

Scrap procurement capabilities

Scrap Suppliers Customers

SECONDARY

Aluminum recycling −

wrought, cast and

specification alloys

Wrought alloy

processors

(e.g., rolling

mills, extruders)

Automotive OEMs,

foundries and

casters

Industrial

(new)

Post-consumer

(old)

Aluminum

by-products

(e.g. dross)

Secondary Aluminum Industry

Key Bridge in the Supply Chain

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26.0 36.9

43.5 54.9

67.3 9.8

13.8

19.7

27.7

37.7

35.7

50.7

63.2

82.5

104.9

2002 2007 2012 2017E 2022E

Primary Secondary

5.2%

CAGR %'12 - '22E

Secondary Aluminum Demand

Global aluminum production % Share of aluminum production – NA and Europe

Secondary aluminum production is expected to grow faster than primary production and should account

for half of all production in North America and Europe by 2022

(Tonnes in millions)

6.7%

4.5%

69.4%

63.1%

57.4%

52.9% 50.4%

30.6%

36.9%

42.6%

47.1%

49.6%

2002 2007 2012 2017E 2022E

Primary Secondary

Source: Freedonia Group, October 2013.

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Aluminum Pricing

Source: Metalprices.com

Price Movements Tied to Inventory???

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

3-May-11 3-Nov-11 3-May-12 3-Nov-12 3-May-13 3-Nov-13 3-May-14 3-Nov-14 3-May-15 3-Nov-15 3-May-16

$/T

Met

ric

Tonn

esP1020 Price vs. LME Primary Inventory

Aluminum stock P1020 price

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

3-May-11 3-Nov-11 3-May-12 3-Nov-12 3-May-13 3-Nov-13 3-May-14 3-Nov-14 3-May-15 3-Nov-15 3-May-16

$/T

Met

ric

Ton

nes

NASAAC/380 Price vs. NASAAC LME Inventory

NASAAC stock NASAAC price MW380

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Automotive End Use Outlook

Auto builds forecasted to rise in all

regions

— North American increases largely in

Mexico

— European producers expanding to

Eastern Europe

Huge growth projected in body, bumper

and closure

Castings pounds per vehicle to increase

— Powertrain to increase from 196 lbs

to 209 lbs

— Chassis, Suspension and Steering to

increase from 21 lbs to 38 lbs

Capacity exists to process the

expanded alloy mix from new products

and applications

Source: Ducker Worldwide, October 2012.

Auto Builds

Aluminum Content per Vehicle

343 Pounds/Vehicle

57%

17%

6%

5%

15%

Current Component MixPowertrain

Wheels

Chassis, Suspension& Steering

Body, Bumper andClosure

All Other

550 Pounds/Vehicle

38%

11%7%

32%

12%

Future Component MixPowertrain

Wheels

Chassis, Suspension& Steering

Body, Bumper andClosure

All Other

Ramp Up is Underway – Impact to be Determined

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Scrap Market and Outlook

Industrial Scrap

− Flow remains fairly strong

− Auto body scrap supply chain being defined

Post-Consumer Scrap

− Low prices driving down flow

− Steel industry slowdown has negative impact

− China remains less active

Aluminum by-products (dross)

− Driven by rolling mill / extrusion / casting volumes

− Expected to increase with auto body trends

Impact of currency fluctuations

− Leads to changes in flow of scrap, ingot and

products

Source: USGS

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

MTD

$/L

b

Platts MW A-380 vs. MB226 (USD)

MB226 (USD) MW380

Bumpy Ride to Continue9

01

14

11

28

51

02

99

99 10

2 12

01

20

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61

00

85

81

82

80 8

88

5 98 10

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38

36

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47

4 80 81

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72 74

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54

54 56

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

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Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

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Se

p-1

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Nov-1

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Ja

n-1

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Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

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l-1

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p-1

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Nov-1

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n-1

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US Exports of Aluminum Scrap to China(Metric Tonnes 000's)

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Financial Strength of Supply Chain

Scrap Suppliers Customers

SECONDARY

Aluminum recycling

− wrought, cast and

specification alloys

Wrought alloy

processors

(e.g., rolling

mills, extruders)

Automotive

OEMs, foundries

and casters

Industrial

(new)

Post-consumer

(old)

Aluminum

by-products

(e.g. dross)

Aluminum Supply Chain Remains Strong

Page 10: Harbor Aluminum Conference Chicago, IL June 9, 2016s2.q4cdn.com/.../2016/Harbor-Aluminum-Presentation.pdf · including but not limited to the most recently filed Annual Report on

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Secondary Aluminum Outlook

Increasing use of aluminum

Global expansion of the industry

Technology

Demand for eco-friendly products

Legislation

Opportunities Risks

Currency

Relocation of production

Financial health of industry

Impact of low prices

Global balance of prime and scrap

Positive Outlook Despite Risks