Harald Sverdrup1,2 & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir2

Game School, Norwegian Inland University, Hamar, NorwayIndustrial Engineering, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland,

METHODS: SOURCES OF CARBON RELEASE TO THEATMOSTPHERE IN EXCESS OF THE NATURAL BALANCE

CO2 emission arise from the following sources:

1. Burning of carbon-based fossil fuels

2. Roasting of carbonate-based ores

3. Calcination of carbonates for cement and mortar

4. Net release from soils, due to agriculture, deforestation and soil disruptions from human activity and changes from climate change

Energy per unit rich grade ore

extracted

Amount rich oreextracted

Energy use onrich grade ore extraction

Energy per unit high grade ore

extracted

Amount high grade oreextracted

Energy per unit low grade ore

extracted

Amount low gradeore extracted

Energy per unit ultralow grade ore

extracted

Amount ultralow gradeore extracted

Energy use onhigh grade ore extraction

Energy use onlow grade ore extraction

Energy use onultralow ore extraction

Energy per unitrecycled

Amount metalcontainingmaterial recycled

Energy use onrecycling

++

++++++++

+

+ + +

Energy per unit metal

refined+

Energy use in refining

Rich gradeconcentrate

Energy use per unit inbeneficiation

of rich grade ore

Energy use rich grade

concentrate

++

Energy use per unit low grade

concentrate

High gradeconcentrate

Low gradeconcentrate

Ultralow gradeconcentrate

Energy use per unit ultralow gradeconcentrate

Energy use per unit high gradeconcentrate

Energy use high gradeconcentrate

Energy use low grade

concentrate

Energy use ultralow gradeconcentrate

++ ++++

Total amounts of concentrate

+++

+

Amount metalrecycled

Refinery metaloutput

Metalproduction

Ultralow gradeheap

Energy use per unit ultralow gradeheap material

Energy use per unit heap leaching

Metal inheap leachate

Energy use onheap preparation

Energy use onheap leaching

Energy use in leachate

refining

Energy use per unit leachate refining

+

++

+

+ +

+

+

+

+

+ +

WORLD7 EVOLUTION HISTORY; TO REACH HIGH; STAND ON THE SHOULDERS OF OTHERS

• 1961-1971; World1-World2; Forrester team (1961-1971), MIT; Industrial dynamics, urban dynamics, world dynamics, first pioneering basicconcept for how a World model is put together. Very simplified and aggregated because of computational constraints of the computers available

at the time (Forrester 1961, 1969, 1971).

• 1971-2004; World3; The Meadows team (1972-2004), MIT; World dynamics and limits to growth. More elaborate than World2, betterparameterized. dDescribed in “Limits to growth” and “Dynamics of Growth in a Final World” (Meadows et al., 1972, 1974). Significantsimplifications because of computational constraints of the computers available at the time.

• 2011-2012;WORLD4, Sverdrup 2013-2015,WORLD5 Sverdrup 2015-2019;WORLD6; Sverdrup and Koca, 2015-2016, University of Lund

and Sverdrup and Olafsdottir, University of Iceland, since 2016. WORLD6 has causality-based market mechanisms and simulates price dynamics.Handles the global economic and financial development, and captures economic cycles of growth and decline. The modules are linked andresource and policy aspects can be addressed. The model is developed in the STELLA System Dynamics software (Sverdrup 2019, Sverdrup et al.,2013, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014, Lorenz et al., 2017). WORLD6 has no parts included from the earlier models.

• 2019-present:WORLD7. Global Integrated Assessment Model (IAM). Sverdrup and Olafsdottir: Reorgnization of the whole model stucture.Completion of the resource parts. Emphasis on whole system cross-linked feedbacks. Inclusion of social modules, development of a full

biophysical economic model.

WORLD7

Developed by:

HARALD U. SVERDRUP1, ANNA HULDA OLAFSDOTTIR2, DENIZ KOCA3

1Game School, Norwegian Inland University, Hamar, Norway2University of Iceland, Icelandic System Dynamics Group at Industrial Engineering, Reykjavik, Iceland3Center For Ecology and Climate, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.

WORKS IN STELLA ARCHITECTWORLD6, after a large reorganization, became WORLD7 in 2019normal timespan is 1850 to beyond 2200. dt = 1/256, 1/365 OR 1/512

Industrial dynamics

Economy Environment Energy

Metals

Health and people SocietyFood and population

Indium

Disposableincome,

employmentfor

menandwomen

Iron

Kalium

Potassium

Stateeconomy

Taxation

Statedebts

HousinginfrastructuresBurntlime

Plaster

Gypsum

Calcite

Dolomite

NPK

fertilizer

Manganese

Socialtrust,unificationof

agendas,secondarypowercentres

andsocietycohesionindex

Energyuseinhfossil

fuelsextracttion

Chromium

Nuclearweapons

Scandium

Cement

andconcrete

Nickel

Glass

Silicon

Waterusein

energyproduction

Incomedistribution,

wealthdistribution,

economicdifferences

Stainlesssteel

Military-industrial

complex

FactorX

Militarypower

andarmament

Production

ofservices

Worldconsumergoods

marketprices

YttriumCopper

Mercury

Povertyand

socialwellfare

systems

Vanadium

Magnesium

Helium

Energyusefor

industrialproduction

Uranium

Thorium

Agricultureandfoodproduction

Totalenergyproduction

Lead

Productionand

recyclingof

electronics

Worldmarket

materialsprices

WarandpeaceCrimeandviolence

Migrationandmovements

Intangibleassets,

invisibleassetts

Thehiddeneconomy

Electricpowergeneration

anddistribution

Zinc

Biodiversity

dynamics

Naturalfauna

Landvegetation

Insects

Bioenergy

Wateruse

materials

metals

Pensions

Industrialand

agriculturalwater

use

Freshwater,drinkingwater,

urbanwatersupply

Heathcaresystem

Productionoftextiles,clothes

andsimilaritems

Aluminium

Education

systemsand

research

Chemicalindustryand

pharmaceuticals

andpoisons

Energyuseprivate

consumption

Energyuse

transportantionand

mobility

Hydrocarbons

Industrialandcivil

infrastructure

Qualityofgovernance

andcivilization

Politicaldynamics

Industrialprocessingoffood

andfoodsypply

chains

Industrialmanufacturingof

householdhardware

Photovoltaic

Hydropower

Geothermal

Worldwood

Antimony

Gallium

Cadmium

Selenium

Wellbeing

Sand,gravel

andstone

Aircraft

Cars

Ships

Titanium

Zirconium

Hafnium

Rhenium

Silver

Resourcesupply

perperson

Cobalt

Income,cost,

capital,GDP

Tellurium

Lithium

Bismuth

Wolfram

Phosporus

Totalore

amounts

Soilsandlanduse

Landareause

Population

dynamics

Tantalum

Niobium

Energyuse

metals

minerals

Energyuse

ferrousmetals

Germanium

Climatechange

andsome

globalimpacts

Nuclearenergy

UraniumandThorium

Fuelsreprocessing

Windpower

Plastics

Worldfish

Platinum

Group

Metals

Healthcare

pathology,and

mortality

Gold

Tin

Pollutionand

toxicology

Molybdenum

RareEarths

*

Ce,La,Pr,Nd

Sm,Eu,Gd

Tm,Tb,Er,

Ho,Lu,Yb

Environmentandecosystems

Industrialdynamics

Software:StellaArchitect1.8.3

Timestep;Minimum1/256,Integrationmethodrecommended:RK4

Startingtime:1850.Usingotherstartingtimesrequiresresettingallinitialstocksandfluxes.

Largetext:Operationalmodules

Smalltext:Underdevelopmentornotyetdone

WORLD7WORLD-7.121,Versionfrom13.June2019.

ProfessorDr.HaraldUlrikSverdrup,IndustrialEngineering,UniversityofIceland,Reykjavik,Iceland,

AssociateProfessorDr.AnnaHuldaOlafsdottir,IndustrialEngineering,UniversityofIceland,Reykjavik,Iceland

AssociateProfessorDr.DenizKoca,CentreforEnvironmentalandClimateResearch,LundUniversity,Lund,

Sweden

Metalsandmaterials

Economy

Environment

Energy

Food anddemography

SocietyHealth and

people

Metals and materials

Industrial dynamics

RESOURCE QUALITY IS DECLINING FOR ALL IMPORTANT NATURAL RESOURCES

Iron, Manganese, Chromium, Nickel Copper, Zinc, Lead

WATER USE IN FOSSIL FUELS AND METALS PRODUCTION

Years

Wateruse,millioncubicmeter

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

Waterusebygas Wateruseforoil

Wateruseforcoal Waterusehydrocarbons

Years

Wateruse,tonorm3

0

100M

200M

300M

400M

500M

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

Ferich Fehigh Felow

Feultralow PrimaryFe AllFe

Years

Wateruse,milliontonorm3

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

All Niprimary Nihigh

Nilow Niultralow Nitrace

Nirecycle

Years

Lithiumwateruse,milliontonperyear

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

All High Low Ultralow Recycling

Years

RareEarthElementwateruse,milliontonperyear

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

All Low Ultralow Trace Recycle

ENERGY USE IN FOSSIL FUELS PRODUCTION

Years

BilliontonOEperyear

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200

CoalnetE GasnetE OilnetE

CoalE GasE OilE

CONCLUSIONS• A systemic approach is a condition for resolving the challenges.

• Narrow sectorial appoaches are neither systemic, nor sufficient, it is not about adjusting the parameters of the present system, feedbacks co across sectors

• Goal conflicts will demand to be solved at a systemic level

• Systemic changes need to be multi-sectorial, causally linked and pervasive• Energie-wende is linked to a Resource-wende, that can solve very many problems• Rearranging the basic structure of the systems and resetting parameters, involves all fundamental

systems; industrial, economic and social dynamics

• Future resource use will demand more energy and water, releasng more CO2 per useful unit of energy or material• EROI goes down, RROI goes down, WROI goes up)