Hans Verkerk, Vladimir Korotkov, Jeannette Meyer, Sergey Zudin, Sergey Lebedev, Marcus Lindner

Impact of wood demand and forest management on forest development

and carbon stocks in Kostroma region, Russia

Introduction

Forests important for controlling CO2 concentration

Russian forests important

•21% of global forest area

•large carbon pool

•carbon sink

•but:• managed unsatisfactorily

• subject to huge changes

Introduction

Aim:

• to explore the effects of different wood demands and

forest management strategies on forest development and

carbon stocks

• to contribute to the development of sustainable forest

management strategies in Russia

Introduction

Research questions

• Demand:• Is the rapid increase in demand sustainable?

• Is it possible to fulfill the demand?

• Management:• What impact does forest management have on the structure

of the forest and on carbon stocks?

Methods

Study area: Chukhlomskoy FMUForested area 226620 haSpecies:

• Scots pine (14%)

• Norway spruce (32%)

• Birch (39%)

• European aspen (14%)

• Other (1%)

Methods

Application of EFISCEN• Forest inventory of 1996

• 24 forest types distinguished

• Data• Volume and increment from forest inventories

• Established BEFs

• Marklund equations + EFIMOD coefficients

• Russian yield tables

• Simulation period: 40 years

Scenarios

Input data

Forestmanagement

Wooddemand

Growth changesdue to climatechange

Forest areachange

Fellingresidues

Europeannational forestinventories

EFISCEN core model:

by region, tree species,site class, ownershipclass

projections of:- stemwood volume- net annual increment- age classes- removals- forest area

Soil submodule:Soil carbon stock andheterotrophic respiration

Whole-treebiomass

Treecarbon

Litte r

Wood productssubmodule:

Carbon stocks andflows in harvestedwood products

Mechanisticmodel

The EFISCEN model framework

The area matrix approach of EFISCEN

Forest types are specified by:

• Region• Owner• Site class• Tree species

INVENTORY DATA:STEMWOOD VOLUME, m3

(from EEFR database)

DRY WOOD BIOMASS, Mg

CARBON IN STEM BIOMASS, Mg

CARBON IN WHOLE TREE BIOMASS, Mg

CARBON TO LITTER, Mg/yr-1

Dry wood density, Mg/m3

Carbon content, %

Biomass turnover by age classes, tree species, region

Biomass expansion factors by age classes, tree species, region

The Carbon Calculation

Methods

Scenarios• 2 species scenarios

• no change in species

• increase of coniferous species

• 5 demand scenarios• constant demand

• increasing demand

• 3 management scenarios• changing share of thinnings in removals

• changing rotation length

Results

Forest structure in 1995

0

10

20

30

40

Age-class

Are

a (

1000

ha

)

European aspen Birch Norway spruce Scots pine

Results of demand scenarios

Forest structure

0

10

20

30

40

1-10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-6

0

61-7

0

71-8

0

81-9

0

91-1

00

101-

110

111-

120

121-

130

131-

140

141-

150

>15

0

Age class

Are

a (1

000

ha)

0

10

20

30

40

1-10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-6

0

61-7

0

71-8

0

81-9

0

91-1

00

101-

110

111-

120

121-

130

131-

140

141-

150

>15

0Age class

Are

a (1

000

ha)

0

10

20

30

40

Aspen and others Birch Norway spruce Scots pine

MSD scenario

Average age: 44 years

CP scenario

Average age: 68 years

Results demand scenarios

Forest growth

• Average growing stock

• Average carbon stocks

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Years

Gro

win

g s

tock

(m

3/h

a)

MSD CP Pisarenko et al., 2001 Alexeyev and Birdsey, 1998

Scenario 1995 2015 2035ton/ha ton/ha % change ton/ha % change

MSD 50.4 54.9 9 59.3 18CP 50.4 67.6 34 82.1 63RFSOS-I 50.4 65.2 29 - -RFSOS-II 50.4 63.7 27 - -RFSOS-III 50.4 66.2 32 - -

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1996

-200

0

2001

-200

5

2006

-201

0

2011

-201

5

2016

-202

0

2021

-202

5

2026

-203

0

2031

-203

5

Years

Tota

l re

mo

vals

(10

00 m

3/ye

ar)

European aspen Birch Norway spruce Scots pine

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1996

-200

0

2001

-200

5

2006

-201

0

2011

-201

5

2016

-202

0

2021

-202

5

2026

-203

0

2031

-203

5

Years

Tota

l re

mo

vals

(10

00 m

3/ye

ar)

Results demand scenarios

Removals

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Years

Tota

l re

mo

vals

(10

00 m

3/ye

ar)

MSD CP RFSOS-I RFSOS-II RFSOS-III

MSD

CP

Results management scenarios

Forest structureMSD

0

10

20

30

40

1-10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-6

0

61-7

0

71-8

0

81-9

0

91-1

00

101-

110

111-

120

121-

130

131-

140

141-

150

>15

0

Age-class

Are

a (1

000

ha)

HIT

0

10

20

30

40

1-10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-6

0

61-7

0

71-8

0

81-9

0

91-1

00

101-

110

111-

120

121-

130

131-

140

141-

150

>15

0

Age-class

Are

a (1

000

ha)

LR

0

10

20

30

40

1-10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-6

0

61-7

0

71-8

0

81-9

0

91-1

00

101-

110

111-

120

121-

130

131-

140

141-

150

>15

0

Age-class

Are

a (1

000

ha)

SR

0

10

20

30

40

1-10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-6

0

61-7

0

71-8

0

81-9

0

91-1

00

101-

110

111-

120

121-

130

131-

140

141-

150

>15

0

Age-class

Are

a (1

000

ha)

0

10

20

30

40

Aspen and others Birch Norway spruce Scots pine

Results management scenarios

Forest growth and average carbon stock

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Years

Net

An

nu

al I

ncr

emen

t (m

3/h

a/ye

ar)

MSD HIT LR SR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Years

Ave

rag

e ca

rbo

n s

tock

(to

n/h

a)MSD HIT LR SR

Increment Carbon

Results management scenarios

Removals

• Total demand could be fulfilled under every scenario

• Increase share of thinnings• in MSD scenario: 24,400 m3/year

• in HIT scenario: 138,000 m3/year

• in LR scenario 194,200-195,800 m3/year

• No change in share of thinnings SR scenario

Discussion

Mortality:

•Low volume of removals + absence of natural mortality in

EFISCEN Accumulation of area in oldest age-

class

Discussion

Forest growth and carbon stocks

• Initial average growing stock: 154 m3/ha

• Initial average carbon stock: 50.4 ton/ha• Estimates are in accordance with literature

• Increase in average growing/carbon stock• Rate MSD scenario in accordance with literature

Discussion

Increasing wood demand

• Demand could be sustained• demand still lower than maximum volume of removal (MSD)

• High share of wood from deciduous species• Industrial use of this wood still limited

Discussion

Forest management

• HIT scenario: huge increase in thinnings possible• Set aside forests for nature conservation

• Silvicultural advantages

• LR: biggest increase in average growing/carbon stock

• SR: rather small effect on average growing/carbon stock

Conclusions

Expected increase in removals is sustainable• More equal distribution of area over age-classes

• Expected increase does not exceed maximum sustainable

cut (MSD scenario)

Expected demand could be fulfilled• High share of deciduous species

Beneficial to:• Increase share of thinnings

• Prolong rotation length