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Transcript of Hans Peter Ring , CFO - Airbus · 1 1 Hans Peter Ring , CFO SG Cowen Conference – New York,...
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1
Hans Peter Ring , CFO
SG Cowen Conference – New York, February 8th, 2005
2
Certain of the statements contained in this document are not historical facts but rather are statements of future expectations and otherforward-looking statements that are based on management‘s beliefs. These statements reflect the Company‘s views and assumptionsas of the date of the statements and involve known and unknown risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance orevents to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.
When used in this document, words such as “anticipate ”, “believe ”, “estimate ”, “expect ”, “may ”, “intend ”, “plan to ” and “project ” areintended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, projections forimprovements in process and operations, new business opportunities, revenues and revenues growth, operating margin growth, cashflow, deliveries, launches, compliance with delivery schedules, performance against Company targets, new products, current andfuture markets for the Company products and other trend projections.
This forward looking information is based upon a number of assumptions including without limitation:· Assumption regarding demand· Current and future markets for the Company‘s products and services· Internal performance including the ability to successfully integrate EADS‘ activities to control costs and maintain quality· Customer financing· Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations· Favourable outcomes of certain pending sales campaigns
Forward looking statements are subject to uncertainty and actual future results and trends may differ materially depending on varietyof factors including without limitation:· General economic and labour conditions, including in particular economic conditions in Europe and North America,· Legal, financial and governmental risk related to international transactions· The Cyclical nature of some of the Company‘s businesses· Volatility of the market for certain products and services· Product performance risks· Collective bargaining labour disputes· Factors that result in significant and prolonged disruption to air travel world-wide· The outcome of political and legal processes, including uncertainty regarding government funding of certain programs· Consolidation among competitors in the aerospace industry· The cost of developing, and the commercial success of new products· Exchange rate and interest rate spread fluctuations between the Euro and the U.S. dollar and other currencies· Legal proceeding and other economic, political and technological risk and uncertainties
Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the Company‘s “document de référence ” dated 1st April 2004.The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Consequently the Company is not responsible for any consequencies from using any of the below statements.
Safe Harbor Statement
2
3
2000 to 2005 : Growing profitability
2005 2005 targetstargets
• Airbus Deliveries: 350–360 aircraft• Net income: € 1.20 per share• Book to Bill (Orders/Revenues) over 1• Free Cash Flow positive pre-customer financing and Paradigm investment
* pre goodwill and exceptionals
30.8 29.9 30.1
~33~32
0.95
1.13
~1.30
0.90
1.24
2001 2002 2003 Estimate2004
Target2005
EBIT* in € bn EBIT* in % of revenues
Revenues in € bn
€ vs $ 1,71,4 1,5
> 2.3 > 2.45,5%
4,8% 5,1%
> 7%
2001 2002 2003 Estimate 2004
Target 2005
4
Turnaround
AERO, MTA,DS, HQ€ 261 m
AIRBUS1 655 € m
SPACE- 222 € m
2001 EBIT*1.7 €bn
2004 EBIT* (**)
> 2.3 €bn
AERO, MTA,DS, HQ
AIRBUS
SPACE
EBIT* growth across divisions
~ + 40 %
* Pre goodwill and exceptionals
**Estimates, 2004 Earnings on March 9th 2005
3
5
Net cash position at YE in € bn
*2004 Earnings on March 9th 2005
3.12.7 2.4
2001 2002 2003 Estimated*2004
Solid and Growing Cash Position
6
over one**>2.3 €bn **~ 32 €bn **net cash increase **
Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* of 2.2 €bnRevenues of 32 €bnFCF pre-customer financing >0
2004
A History of Delivering on Promises …….and achieved
>2.0+ 27%+ 21%
€ 0.8 bn
EADS promised… Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* +15% from 2000Revenues +20% from 2000Free Cash Flow ~0
2001
2002 1.04€ 1.4 bn
€ 29.9 bn€ 1.2 bn
Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* of 1.4 €bnRevenues stableNet cash position slightly positive
2003Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* ~ stable from 2002Revenues ~ stable from 2002FCF pre-customer financing >0
>2.0+ 8 %
€ 30.1 bn € 2.1 bn
**Estimates, 2004 Earnings on March 9th 2005* pre goodwill and exceptionals
4
7
2000 2004
Maturing with New Momentum
Growth :• Airbus: market recovery and A380• Defence expands• Space turnaround
Delivery and Export of new Programs and Systems
Expand Business Boundaries• Services• Homeland • Systems
Global Industrial StrategyUS, Russia, Japan, China, S. Korea, India
Group Integration• Merger Integration • DS and Space restructuring
European consolidation• Airbus• MBDA• Astrium
New Program Development• A380, A318, A340-600/500• A400M• Tiger, NH90• Eurofighter• Meteor, Taurus, Aster • Ariane 5• Euro Star 3000
Post Merger Phase Strengthen Global Leadership
Towards double digit EBIT* margin* Pre goodwill and exceptionals
8
Airbus: Leadership for the Market Upturn
500
750
1500
1750
Jan 1995 Jan 2005
Order-Book in Units
615
Airbus Boeing
1000
1250
1,126 1,097
1,500
402
768
124163
39171
248
381
586
914
288
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Tota
l del
iver
ies
Average deliveries /yearexpected over 2004-2023
(Source: Airbus GMF)
320 (2004); 350-360 (e2005)
285 (2004); 320 (e2005)
866
e2024
EBIT* margin
FY2002303
7.1%
FY2003305
5.7% A380 related R&D expenses
Other R&D expenses3.9%
16.7%
7.0%
4.2%
4.4%
15.6%
8%
FY2001325
1.9%
5.1%
15%
9.6%
5.6%
3.7%
18.7%
9m 2004224 deliveries
EBIT* margin pre-R&D
5
9
A380 : happening … now!
2005
FirstFlight
20062006
Entry IntoService
1919thth DecDec20002000
IndustrialLaunch
EndEnd20012001
Detail DesignComplete
2nd 2nd QtrQtr20042004
Final AssemblyStart
JanJan20022002
First MetalCut
IRR: 20% +/- 1% Breakeven : 250 A/C +/- 10%Key assumptions: 751 a/c deliveries by 2021
€-$ : 1.12 (50% market share)
10
A380 : Solid Orderbook139 firm Orders + 15 Commitments
15 A380
41 A380 & 2 A380F10 A380
2 A38010 A380F
12 A3806 A380
10 A380
5 A380 & 5 A380F
5 A380
6 A380
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Firm Backlog
B747
159159
102102
7777 77776262
5252
3737
A380
85859595
129129
Data to end January 2005
A380A380StartStart
Firm orders
4 A380
6 A380
10 A380F*2004
139139
3232
China Southern 5 A380* * commitments
6
11
Launch the A350
A350-9Cash OperatingCost per seat- 3 % vs. 787-9- 10 % vs. 777
245 seats 217
seats
8500 nm8600 nm
A350-8 787-8
290 seats
275 seats 257
seats
7700 nm8100 nm7500 nm
A350-9 787-9 777-200ER
767-300ER
787-8
A330-200
A350-800
777-200
787-9
A330-300
A340-500
A350-900
A350-8
Cash OperatingCost per seat
- 7 % vs. 787-81,800 ac
1,300 ac
Next 20-year market :3,100 aicraft
Caution: does not incorporate latest specifications
12
Targeted acquisitions :Racal• DoD supplier• Strong profit and growth• EADS becomes n°1 in the $22 billion
instrument and testing services industry
Defence business : continuing tosupport Revenues and order-book
EADS Revenues in €bnEADS Order-book in €bn
2001 2002 2003 Estim.*2004
~ 8
~32
6,1
30,8
6,0
29,9
7,1
30,1
~ 5 %
~ 30 %
Estim.*2004
2001 2002 2003
18
168
22
179
46
> 49
~180183
~ 172 %
Well positioned for export :examples• A400M• A330 Tanker• NH90 => PRV• Storm Shadow, Aster,…• Tiger / Eurofighter
7
13
Space: Back to Profitability
Space order-book in € m
3 796 3 895
7 888
10 921
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2001 2002 2003 sept-04
Space EBIT*2001 2002 2003
e2004
€ (222) m€ (268) m
PROFIT
e2005
€ (400) m
Restructuring charge
* Pre goodwill and exceptionals
Order-book boosted by :• Paradigm order (€ 3.2 bn)• 30 Ariane5 order (€ 3 bn)• Telecom & Observation satellites
BREAKEVEN
14
USUSRussiaRussia
JapanJapan
ChinaChina
IndiaIndia• …
South KoreaSouth Korea
EADS NA Defence Company founded- Transatlantic partnerships: NATO AGS,
Eurohawk, MEADS, BMD- Racal Instruments 100%- Tanker Team in placeAirbus: Design Office Wichita, KSAmerican Eurocopter: plant Mississippi, PRV with NG
EADS 5% in AviChinaAirbus: Sourcing targets raisedEngineering centerEC: EC120 co production, Strategic agreement with Avic IIAstrium: JV Euraspace with CASC, Asiasat partnership, Galileo interest
EC: 10% of Euroheli with Sony and Kawasho, KHI for BK117Airbus: Jamco, MHI, KHI, FHI A380 supplierSpace: MHI, IHI, Nissan, Melco cooperations
Global Industrial Strategy & Key Strategic Markets
Airbus Design Center, KaskolEADS: Research Center
Airbus: Korean Air and KAISpace: Cooperation with KARI and KAI
AustraliaAustraliaAustralian Aerospace 100%- Tanker, Tiger, NH90
Long Term Market Access,Cost advantage,Technology access,Natural currency hedging
Airbus: HAL, InfosysLicense with BDL (Milan) and HAL (Alouette/ Lama)Partnerships (MoU signed) with BDL (MBDA) and HAL (EC)Galileo interest
8
15
ExpectedExpectedDeliveriesDeliveries
ExpectedExpectedExposureExposure
(w/o Route 06)(w/o Route 06)
HedgedHedgedExposureExposure
Tackling the US Dollar
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Profitability levers:• Route 06• Operating leverage
from higher volume
16
2.7
8.67.2
4.9
1.1 0.4
6.7
10.4
02468
1012
2004 3-month
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
US$ bn
Medium-term Earnings Hedged
EADS hedge portfolio (US$ 42 bn) on Sept, 30th 2004at an average 1 € = 1.02 $
€ vs $ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.09 1.04 1.13£ vs $ 1.55 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.52 1.58 1.53 1.54
Marked-to-market value = € 6.7 bn
Approx. half of US$ revenues are naturally hedged by US$ procurement.With 305 Airbus deliveries, EADS net exposure was around $9bn in 2003.
9
17
Route 06: 1.5 €bn Cost Savings
Sales Financing & Asset Management
Customer Services
Legal Obligations (excluded)
Engines (excluded)
R&D Self Funded Externally Funded R&D (excluded)
SG&A and affiliated
Productionrelated
2006 Airbus cost base: 15 €bn
18
Appendix
SG Cowen Conference – New York, February 8th, 2005
10
19
Strong and Stable Shareholder Structure
Free Float
33.06%
0.06%
SOGEADELagardère
&French State
30.28%
Daimler Chrysler
30.28%
Contractual Partnership66.1%
0.78% repurchased (no voting rights)
as of December 31st, 2004
EADS
SEPI
5.54%
20
EADS 2003 divisional highlights
€ 141.8 bn
€ 19.0 bn
€ 9.8 bn
€ 3.8 bn
€ 7.9 bn
€ 2.4 bn
€ 14.3 bn
€ 5.2 bn
€ 20.0 bn
€ 0.9 bn
CivilDefence
Airbus MilitaryTransport
Aircraft
Aeronautics Space(Astrium 100%
since Jan. 2003)
Defence and SecuritySystems**
€ 1,353 m € 30 m € 217 m € (400) m € 171 mEBIT*
Revenues
Order book
in % of external revenues
* pre goodwill and exceptionals
Eurocopter,ATR, EADS Socata, Sogerma Services,EFW
Astrium, Launch Vehicles, CASA Espacio, SpaceServices, CILAS,Sodern
Military Ac (Eurofighter,...),Missiles (MBDA,..), Defence Elect., EADS Telecom, EADS Services
A400M,
CN235, C295....
11
21
Additions and Disposalsto Airbus customer financing gross exposure in $ bn
1.2 1.4 1.51.0
-0.7
-2.9
-0.2
-0.1
1.5
0.50.6
-0.7-0.7-0.9-1.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2-0.2
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Sept.04
Additions Sell Down Amortization
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
Net changeEstimated Collateral € 2.1 bn
Airbus Customer Financing also reflects market recovery
Gross exposure:• Significantly reduced since 1998 despite 2001-2003 downturn• Spread over 206 aircraft (Sept. 2004)
Active management every year Prudent accounting
Gross
Exposure
€ 3.7 bn
($ 4.6 bn)
Net Exposure€ 1.6 bn
Net Exposure is fully covered by Provisions
Sept. 2004
6.1 4.3 3.9 3.1 3.8 4.8 4.6Gross exposure in $bn
Average gross exposure per a/c delivered (to date) in $m3.2 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3
22
European Government Refundable Advances
Sept. 2004 Dec. 2003EADS governmental refundable advances € 5.2 bn € 4.9 bn
thereof at Airbus € 4.6 bn € 4.3 bnInterest accrued € 0.2 bn
Net flow (received - repaid)
€ 0.7 bn € 0.7 bn
negative
2002 2003 e2004
Others8%
LR & WB43%
A38045%
Eurocopter4%
Breakdown of refundable advancesoutstanding in 2003
€ 0.2 bn
• Repayable• Risk and profit sharing• Interest Bearing
12
23
Eurofighter :Umbrella Contract with different Tranches
Tranche 1 Basic EffortTranche 2
Tranche 3
Integrated Logistic Support (ILS)
Development Phase
1988 2000 2005 201520101998 1999 2006 2007 2008 20092001 2002 2003 2004 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017
Tranche 1 148 a/c (44GE/20SP
Tranche2 236 a/c (68GE/33SP)EADS Contract volume: 4.3 €bn
Tranche3 236 a/c
Production Investment Phase
Series Production Phase
Development Phase
In-Service Phase
Con
tract
Su
pple
men
t 1C
ontr
act
Supp
lem
ent 2
, and
4
Fram
e C
ontr
act
Plain colour = booked Dotted colour = not yet booked
24
Eurocopter Leadership
2004 highlights•Revenues € 2.8 bn (+7% from 2003)•52% global civil and parapublic market share•Orders € 3.2 bn•Order-book € 9 bn
Defence drives double digit revenue growth in 2005 and 2006
2004 revenues
CivilParapublic
53%47%
Military
56%44%
ExportFrance
GermanySpain
16%
35%
49%Development
Helicopterproduction
Customersupport