Hans Peter Ring , CFO - Airbus · 1 1 Hans Peter Ring , CFO SG Cowen Conference – New York,...

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1 1 Hans Peter Ring , CFO SG Cowen Conference – New York, February 8 th , 2005 2 Certain of the statements contained in this document are not historical facts but rather are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management‘s beliefs. These statements reflect the Company‘s views and assumptions as of the date of the statements and involve known and unknown risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. When used in this document, words such as “anticipate ”, “believe ”, “estimate ”, “expect ”, “may ”, “intend ”, “plan to ” and “project ” are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, projections for improvements in process and operations, new business opportunities, revenues and revenues growth, operating margin growth, cash flow, deliveries, launches, compliance with delivery schedules, performance against Company targets, new products, current and future markets for the Company products and other trend projections. This forward looking information is based upon a number of assumptions including without limitation: · Assumption regarding demand · Current and future markets for the Company‘s products and services · Internal performance including the ability to successfully integrate EADS‘ activities to control costs and maintain quality · Customer financing · Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations · Favourable outcomes of certain pending sales campaigns Forward looking statements are subject to uncertainty and actual future results and trends may differ materially depending on variety of factors including without limitation: · General economic and labour conditions, including in particular economic conditions in Europe and North America, · Legal, financial and governmental risk related to international transactions · The Cyclical nature of some of the Company‘s businesses · Volatility of the market for certain products and services · Product performance risks · Collective bargaining labour disputes · Factors that result in significant and prolonged disruption to air travel world-wide · The outcome of political and legal processes, including uncertainty regarding government funding of certain programs · Consolidation among competitors in the aerospace industry · The cost of developing, and the commercial success of new products · Exchange rate and interest rate spread fluctuations between the Euro and the U.S. dollar and other currencies · Legal proceeding and other economic, political and technological risk and uncertainties Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the Company‘s “document de référence ” dated 1st April 2004. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Consequently the Company is not responsible for any consequencies from using any of the below statements. Safe Harbor Statement

Transcript of Hans Peter Ring , CFO - Airbus · 1 1 Hans Peter Ring , CFO SG Cowen Conference – New York,...

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1

Hans Peter Ring , CFO

SG Cowen Conference – New York, February 8th, 2005

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Certain of the statements contained in this document are not historical facts but rather are statements of future expectations and otherforward-looking statements that are based on management‘s beliefs. These statements reflect the Company‘s views and assumptionsas of the date of the statements and involve known and unknown risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance orevents to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

When used in this document, words such as “anticipate ”, “believe ”, “estimate ”, “expect ”, “may ”, “intend ”, “plan to ” and “project ” areintended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, projections forimprovements in process and operations, new business opportunities, revenues and revenues growth, operating margin growth, cashflow, deliveries, launches, compliance with delivery schedules, performance against Company targets, new products, current andfuture markets for the Company products and other trend projections.

This forward looking information is based upon a number of assumptions including without limitation:· Assumption regarding demand· Current and future markets for the Company‘s products and services· Internal performance including the ability to successfully integrate EADS‘ activities to control costs and maintain quality· Customer financing· Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations· Favourable outcomes of certain pending sales campaigns

Forward looking statements are subject to uncertainty and actual future results and trends may differ materially depending on varietyof factors including without limitation:· General economic and labour conditions, including in particular economic conditions in Europe and North America,· Legal, financial and governmental risk related to international transactions· The Cyclical nature of some of the Company‘s businesses· Volatility of the market for certain products and services· Product performance risks· Collective bargaining labour disputes· Factors that result in significant and prolonged disruption to air travel world-wide· The outcome of political and legal processes, including uncertainty regarding government funding of certain programs· Consolidation among competitors in the aerospace industry· The cost of developing, and the commercial success of new products· Exchange rate and interest rate spread fluctuations between the Euro and the U.S. dollar and other currencies· Legal proceeding and other economic, political and technological risk and uncertainties

Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the Company‘s “document de référence ” dated 1st April 2004.The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Consequently the Company is not responsible for any consequencies from using any of the below statements.

Safe Harbor Statement

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2000 to 2005 : Growing profitability

2005 2005 targetstargets

• Airbus Deliveries: 350–360 aircraft• Net income: € 1.20 per share• Book to Bill (Orders/Revenues) over 1• Free Cash Flow positive pre-customer financing and Paradigm investment

* pre goodwill and exceptionals

30.8 29.9 30.1

~33~32

0.95

1.13

~1.30

0.90

1.24

2001 2002 2003 Estimate2004

Target2005

EBIT* in € bn EBIT* in % of revenues

Revenues in € bn

€ vs $ 1,71,4 1,5

> 2.3 > 2.45,5%

4,8% 5,1%

> 7%

2001 2002 2003 Estimate 2004

Target 2005

4

Turnaround

AERO, MTA,DS, HQ€ 261 m

AIRBUS1 655 € m

SPACE- 222 € m

2001 EBIT*1.7 €bn

2004 EBIT* (**)

> 2.3 €bn

AERO, MTA,DS, HQ

AIRBUS

SPACE

EBIT* growth across divisions

~ + 40 %

* Pre goodwill and exceptionals

**Estimates, 2004 Earnings on March 9th 2005

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5

Net cash position at YE in € bn

*2004 Earnings on March 9th 2005

3.12.7 2.4

2001 2002 2003 Estimated*2004

Solid and Growing Cash Position

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over one**>2.3 €bn **~ 32 €bn **net cash increase **

Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* of 2.2 €bnRevenues of 32 €bnFCF pre-customer financing >0

2004

A History of Delivering on Promises …….and achieved

>2.0+ 27%+ 21%

€ 0.8 bn

EADS promised… Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* +15% from 2000Revenues +20% from 2000Free Cash Flow ~0

2001

2002 1.04€ 1.4 bn

€ 29.9 bn€ 1.2 bn

Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* of 1.4 €bnRevenues stableNet cash position slightly positive

2003Book-to-bill over oneEBIT* ~ stable from 2002Revenues ~ stable from 2002FCF pre-customer financing >0

>2.0+ 8 %

€ 30.1 bn € 2.1 bn

**Estimates, 2004 Earnings on March 9th 2005* pre goodwill and exceptionals

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2000 2004

Maturing with New Momentum

Growth :• Airbus: market recovery and A380• Defence expands• Space turnaround

Delivery and Export of new Programs and Systems

Expand Business Boundaries• Services• Homeland • Systems

Global Industrial StrategyUS, Russia, Japan, China, S. Korea, India

Group Integration• Merger Integration • DS and Space restructuring

European consolidation• Airbus• MBDA• Astrium

New Program Development• A380, A318, A340-600/500• A400M• Tiger, NH90• Eurofighter• Meteor, Taurus, Aster • Ariane 5• Euro Star 3000

Post Merger Phase Strengthen Global Leadership

Towards double digit EBIT* margin* Pre goodwill and exceptionals

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Airbus: Leadership for the Market Upturn

500

750

1500

1750

Jan 1995 Jan 2005

Order-Book in Units

615

Airbus Boeing

1000

1250

1,126 1,097

1,500

402

768

124163

39171

248

381

586

914

288

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Tota

l del

iver

ies

Average deliveries /yearexpected over 2004-2023

(Source: Airbus GMF)

320 (2004); 350-360 (e2005)

285 (2004); 320 (e2005)

866

e2024

EBIT* margin

FY2002303

7.1%

FY2003305

5.7% A380 related R&D expenses

Other R&D expenses3.9%

16.7%

7.0%

4.2%

4.4%

15.6%

8%

FY2001325

1.9%

5.1%

15%

9.6%

5.6%

3.7%

18.7%

9m 2004224 deliveries

EBIT* margin pre-R&D

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A380 : happening … now!

2005

FirstFlight

20062006

Entry IntoService

1919thth DecDec20002000

IndustrialLaunch

EndEnd20012001

Detail DesignComplete

2nd 2nd QtrQtr20042004

Final AssemblyStart

JanJan20022002

First MetalCut

IRR: 20% +/- 1% Breakeven : 250 A/C +/- 10%Key assumptions: 751 a/c deliveries by 2021

€-$ : 1.12 (50% market share)

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A380 : Solid Orderbook139 firm Orders + 15 Commitments

15 A380

41 A380 & 2 A380F10 A380

2 A38010 A380F

12 A3806 A380

10 A380

5 A380 & 5 A380F

5 A380

6 A380

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180Firm Backlog

B747

159159

102102

7777 77776262

5252

3737

A380

85859595

129129

Data to end January 2005

A380A380StartStart

Firm orders

4 A380

6 A380

10 A380F*2004

139139

3232

China Southern 5 A380* * commitments

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Launch the A350

A350-9Cash OperatingCost per seat- 3 % vs. 787-9- 10 % vs. 777

245 seats 217

seats

8500 nm8600 nm

A350-8 787-8

290 seats

275 seats 257

seats

7700 nm8100 nm7500 nm

A350-9 787-9 777-200ER

767-300ER

787-8

A330-200

A350-800

777-200

787-9

A330-300

A340-500

A350-900

A350-8

Cash OperatingCost per seat

- 7 % vs. 787-81,800 ac

1,300 ac

Next 20-year market :3,100 aicraft

Caution: does not incorporate latest specifications

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Targeted acquisitions :Racal• DoD supplier• Strong profit and growth• EADS becomes n°1 in the $22 billion

instrument and testing services industry

Defence business : continuing tosupport Revenues and order-book

EADS Revenues in €bnEADS Order-book in €bn

2001 2002 2003 Estim.*2004

~ 8

~32

6,1

30,8

6,0

29,9

7,1

30,1

~ 5 %

~ 30 %

Estim.*2004

2001 2002 2003

18

168

22

179

46

> 49

~180183

~ 172 %

Well positioned for export :examples• A400M• A330 Tanker• NH90 => PRV• Storm Shadow, Aster,…• Tiger / Eurofighter

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Space: Back to Profitability

Space order-book in € m

3 796 3 895

7 888

10 921

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2001 2002 2003 sept-04

Space EBIT*2001 2002 2003

e2004

€ (222) m€ (268) m

PROFIT

e2005

€ (400) m

Restructuring charge

* Pre goodwill and exceptionals

Order-book boosted by :• Paradigm order (€ 3.2 bn)• 30 Ariane5 order (€ 3 bn)• Telecom & Observation satellites

BREAKEVEN

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USUSRussiaRussia

JapanJapan

ChinaChina

IndiaIndia• …

South KoreaSouth Korea

EADS NA Defence Company founded- Transatlantic partnerships: NATO AGS,

Eurohawk, MEADS, BMD- Racal Instruments 100%- Tanker Team in placeAirbus: Design Office Wichita, KSAmerican Eurocopter: plant Mississippi, PRV with NG

EADS 5% in AviChinaAirbus: Sourcing targets raisedEngineering centerEC: EC120 co production, Strategic agreement with Avic IIAstrium: JV Euraspace with CASC, Asiasat partnership, Galileo interest

EC: 10% of Euroheli with Sony and Kawasho, KHI for BK117Airbus: Jamco, MHI, KHI, FHI A380 supplierSpace: MHI, IHI, Nissan, Melco cooperations

Global Industrial Strategy & Key Strategic Markets

Airbus Design Center, KaskolEADS: Research Center

Airbus: Korean Air and KAISpace: Cooperation with KARI and KAI

AustraliaAustraliaAustralian Aerospace 100%- Tanker, Tiger, NH90

Long Term Market Access,Cost advantage,Technology access,Natural currency hedging

Airbus: HAL, InfosysLicense with BDL (Milan) and HAL (Alouette/ Lama)Partnerships (MoU signed) with BDL (MBDA) and HAL (EC)Galileo interest

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ExpectedExpectedDeliveriesDeliveries

ExpectedExpectedExposureExposure

(w/o Route 06)(w/o Route 06)

HedgedHedgedExposureExposure

Tackling the US Dollar

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Profitability levers:• Route 06• Operating leverage

from higher volume

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2.7

8.67.2

4.9

1.1 0.4

6.7

10.4

02468

1012

2004 3-month

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$ bn

Medium-term Earnings Hedged

EADS hedge portfolio (US$ 42 bn) on Sept, 30th 2004at an average 1 € = 1.02 $

€ vs $ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.09 1.04 1.13£ vs $ 1.55 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.52 1.58 1.53 1.54

Marked-to-market value = € 6.7 bn

Approx. half of US$ revenues are naturally hedged by US$ procurement.With 305 Airbus deliveries, EADS net exposure was around $9bn in 2003.

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Route 06: 1.5 €bn Cost Savings

Sales Financing & Asset Management

Customer Services

Legal Obligations (excluded)

Engines (excluded)

R&D Self Funded Externally Funded R&D (excluded)

SG&A and affiliated

Productionrelated

2006 Airbus cost base: 15 €bn

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Appendix

SG Cowen Conference – New York, February 8th, 2005

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Strong and Stable Shareholder Structure

Free Float

33.06%

0.06%

SOGEADELagardère

&French State

30.28%

Daimler Chrysler

30.28%

Contractual Partnership66.1%

0.78% repurchased (no voting rights)

as of December 31st, 2004

EADS

SEPI

5.54%

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EADS 2003 divisional highlights

€ 141.8 bn

€ 19.0 bn

€ 9.8 bn

€ 3.8 bn

€ 7.9 bn

€ 2.4 bn

€ 14.3 bn

€ 5.2 bn

€ 20.0 bn

€ 0.9 bn

CivilDefence

Airbus MilitaryTransport

Aircraft

Aeronautics Space(Astrium 100%

since Jan. 2003)

Defence and SecuritySystems**

€ 1,353 m € 30 m € 217 m € (400) m € 171 mEBIT*

Revenues

Order book

in % of external revenues

* pre goodwill and exceptionals

Eurocopter,ATR, EADS Socata, Sogerma Services,EFW

Astrium, Launch Vehicles, CASA Espacio, SpaceServices, CILAS,Sodern

Military Ac (Eurofighter,...),Missiles (MBDA,..), Defence Elect., EADS Telecom, EADS Services

A400M,

CN235, C295....

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Additions and Disposalsto Airbus customer financing gross exposure in $ bn

1.2 1.4 1.51.0

-0.7

-2.9

-0.2

-0.1

1.5

0.50.6

-0.7-0.7-0.9-1.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2-0.2

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Sept.04

Additions Sell Down Amortization

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

Net changeEstimated Collateral € 2.1 bn

Airbus Customer Financing also reflects market recovery

Gross exposure:• Significantly reduced since 1998 despite 2001-2003 downturn• Spread over 206 aircraft (Sept. 2004)

Active management every year Prudent accounting

Gross

Exposure

€ 3.7 bn

($ 4.6 bn)

Net Exposure€ 1.6 bn

Net Exposure is fully covered by Provisions

Sept. 2004

6.1 4.3 3.9 3.1 3.8 4.8 4.6Gross exposure in $bn

Average gross exposure per a/c delivered (to date) in $m3.2 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3

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European Government Refundable Advances

Sept. 2004 Dec. 2003EADS governmental refundable advances € 5.2 bn € 4.9 bn

thereof at Airbus € 4.6 bn € 4.3 bnInterest accrued € 0.2 bn

Net flow (received - repaid)

€ 0.7 bn € 0.7 bn

negative

2002 2003 e2004

Others8%

LR & WB43%

A38045%

Eurocopter4%

Breakdown of refundable advancesoutstanding in 2003

€ 0.2 bn

• Repayable• Risk and profit sharing• Interest Bearing

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Eurofighter :Umbrella Contract with different Tranches

Tranche 1 Basic EffortTranche 2

Tranche 3

Integrated Logistic Support (ILS)

Development Phase

1988 2000 2005 201520101998 1999 2006 2007 2008 20092001 2002 2003 2004 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017

Tranche 1 148 a/c (44GE/20SP

Tranche2 236 a/c (68GE/33SP)EADS Contract volume: 4.3 €bn

Tranche3 236 a/c

Production Investment Phase

Series Production Phase

Development Phase

In-Service Phase

Con

tract

Su

pple

men

t 1C

ontr

act

Supp

lem

ent 2

, and

4

Fram

e C

ontr

act

Plain colour = booked Dotted colour = not yet booked

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Eurocopter Leadership

2004 highlights•Revenues € 2.8 bn (+7% from 2003)•52% global civil and parapublic market share•Orders € 3.2 bn•Order-book € 9 bn

Defence drives double digit revenue growth in 2005 and 2006

2004 revenues

CivilParapublic

53%47%

Military

56%44%

ExportFrance

GermanySpain

16%

35%

49%Development

Helicopterproduction

Customersupport