Hans Günter Brauch, Free University Berlin & AFES-PRESS

Nonmilitary environmental securitychallenges for Europe and North America

from the MENA region

“GLOBALEUROPE 2020”: North AmericaClingendael, The Hague, Netherlands, 28 January 2004

Hans Günter Brauch, FU Berlin & AFES-PRESS[[http://http://wwwwww..afesafes-press.de-press.de] and [] and [brauch@ brauch@ afesafes-press.de-press.de]]

Nonmilitary environmental security challengesNonmilitary environmental security challengesfor for Europe and North America Europe and North America from thefrom the MENA MENA regionregion

1. Greek & Roman Mythology: Mars vs. Venus (R. Kagan)2. Philosophy: English School: Hobbes, Kant, Grotius3. Hobbesian vs. Kantian Perception & Agenda for the MENA Region4. Grotian Perspective: Basis for a New Transatlantic Consensus?5. Environmental - Human Security: A NATO Study & OSCE Activities6. The Human Security Network

7. Hobbesian vs. Grotian Perception & Agenda on Mediterranean8. Major Challenge from the South: Environmental, Economic, Political 9. Six Nonmilitary Challenges for the Mediterranean: Survival Hexagon10. Towards a Proactive: Environmental and Human Security Policy

1. Robert 1. Robert KaganKagan*): Mars vs. Venus or*): Mars vs. Venus orUnited States vs. Europe (2003)United States vs. Europe (2003)

On questions of powerAmerican and European

perspectives are diverging.Europe lives in a world of laws,

paradise of peace & prosperityAmericans exercise power in an

anarchic Hobbesian worldwhere defence depends on

military might.Americans are from Mars

Europeans from Venus * Of Paradise and Power

(New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2003)

2. English School: Hobbes, 2. English School: Hobbes, Grotius Grotius & Kant& Kant

Hobbes (1588-1679) Grotius (1583-1645) Kant (1724-1804)

Security perceptions depend on worldviews or traditionsHobbessian pessimist: power is the key category (narrow concept)Grotian pragmatist: cooperation is vital (wide security concept)Kantian optimist: international law and human rights are crucial

3. 3. HobbesianHobbesian vs. Kantian Perception vs. Kantian Perception& Agenda for the MENA Region& Agenda for the MENA Region

Hobbesian diagnosis: New threats: „rogue states“, „axis of evil“[Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, N. Korea] , weapons of massdestruction & terroristsRecipe: Military build-up, missile defence, use of militarypower & force to achieve aims, preemption!

Different worldviews: US & Europeans: diagnosis, recipe!

Kantian [Wilsonian] diagnosis: Human rights violations, nondemocratic regimes

Recipe: Conditionalised economic aid, support for democratisation efforts & liberation [democracy imposed from outsiede]Hobbesian & Wilsonian symbiosis(neocons)Both recipes have problems with the MENA[Middle East and North aFrican region]

4. 4. GrotianGrotian Perspective: Basis for a Perspective: Basis for aNew Transatlantic ConsensusNew Transatlantic Consensus

• For Europeans modern Westphalian internat. orderwas built on Grotian principles of international law.

• International law and multilateral cooperation ininternational institutions matter (EU: compromise).

• We Europeans pointed to other challenges to survi-val of humankind, ignored by the Hobbesianmindset.

David King: PM Blair‘s science adviser: „Climate change is themost severe problem we are facing today, more serious even than thethreat of terrorism“ (Independent, 9.1.2004)Karl Deutsch (1960s): Power means not having to learn! Kagan:Europeans lack military power – Advantage: Europeans must learn!Grotians: Wider problem recognition, anticipatory learning,adaptation & mitigation, multilateral cooperation for solution!Grotian view: Basis for a new transatlantic consensus?

5. 5. Widening Widening of of Security ConceptSecurity ConceptssArnold Wolfers (1962) distinguished objective vs. subjective security „Security, in an objective sense, measures the absence of

threats to acquired values, in a subjective sense, theabsence of fear that such values will be attacked.“

Table: Dimensions (Sectors) & Levels of a Wide Security Concept

Dutch OSCE Presidency (2003): Kiev process on environmentalsecurity focused on Balkans & Central Asia with UNDP/UNEP.

GECGlobal/Planetary ⇒International/Regional

MENA regionNationalSocietal/Community

victimHuman individual ⇒

SocietalEnviron-mental ⇓

EconomicPoliticalMili-tary

Security dimension⇒ ⇓Level of interaction

5.1. Environmental & Human Security5.1. Environmental & Human SecurityTable: Expanded Concepts of Security (© Bjørn Møller, 2003)

MankindSustainabilityEcosystemEnvironmental sec.

Nature, state, global.SurvivalIndivid., mankindHuman security

Nations, migrantsNation. identitySocietal groupsSocietal security

State, substate actorsTerrit. integrityThe StateNational securitySource(s) of threatValue at riskReference objectLabel

Env. Security: Referent: Ecosystem; Value at risk is sustainability. Major challenges: global environmental change & humankind, Focus: Interactions between ecosystem & humankind, impact of

global environm. change on environm. degradation, of increasingdemand on environmental scarcity & environmental stress.Human security: Referent: individuals and humankind.

Values at risk: survival of human beings and their quality of life.Major source of threat: nature (global environm. change), globa-

lisation, nation state with its ability to cope with dual challenge.

6. Human 6. Human Security Network MembersSecurity Network MembersThe Network has an inter-

regional & multiple agendaperspective, strong links tocivil society & academia.

The Network emerged fromlandmines campaign at aMinisterial in Norway,1999.

Conferences at Foreign Mini-sters level in Bergen,Norway (1999), in Lucerne,Switzerland (2000), Petra,Jordan (2001) Santiago deChile (2002), Graz (2003),Bamako, Mali (May 2004).

SloveniaSwitzerl

Norway

AustriaIreland

GreeceNether-lands

ChileJordanMaliThailandSouth Africa(observer)

Canada

Third WorldEUNATO

Anti-pers. Landmines, Intern. Criminal Court,protection of children in armed con-flict,control of small arms & light weapons, fightagainst transnational organized crime,human development, human rights educat.,HIV/AIDS, implement. of internat. humanita-rian & human rights law, conflict prevention

6.1. Vision of the Human Security Network6.1. Vision of the Human Security NetworkA humane world where people can live in security& dignity, free from poverty and despair. ... In sucha world, every individual would be guaranteed free-dom from fear and freedom from want.... Buildinghuman security is essential to achieving this goal.In essence, human security means freedom from pervasivethreats to people's rights, their safety or even their lives.Human security has become both a new measure of globalsecurity and a new agenda for global action. Safety is thehallmark of freedom from fear, while well-being is thetarget of freedom from want.

Human Security Commission: Human Security Now:S.Ogata & A.Sen: „protection“ and „empowerment“.

7.7. Hobbesian Hobbesian vs.vs. Grotian Grotian Perception Perception& Agenda: Euro-Mediterranean& Agenda: Euro-Mediterranean

• RAND: promoted a Hobbesian policy agendaon WMD & missile defence needs in 1990s!

• Mediterranean group of Northatlantic Assemblydifferent perceptions on the South during 1990s.

Barcelona process (1995): European response to new challenge: increasing distress migration on the shores of Spain, France, Italy and Greece

Response in three baskets: security, economic & cultural, environmental challenges and risks.

But partnership with rogues is not possible!

8.8. Major Challenge from the South:Major Challenge from the South:Environmental, Economic, PoliticalEnvironmental, Economic, PoliticalThe major challenge from the South is not powerbut poverty, economic underdevelopment, envi-ronmental scarcity, degradation, stress & crisis.In South: There is a public perception of humilia-tion, of Northern double standards but also of a lackof public participation and democracy.Focus on the environmental security dimension,i.e. on environmental challenges confronting theMENA during the 21st century (2010 - 2100).

8.1. 8.1. Model: Global Model: Global Environmental Environmental ChangeChange,,Environmental Environmental StressStress && Fatal Outcomes Fatal Outcomes

9. Environmental Challenges for the9. Environmental Challenges for theMediterranean: Survival HexagonMediterranean: Survival Hexagon

Environmental security inMediterran. is affected byNature & human-induced

Air: Global climate changeSoil degrad., desertificationWater scarcity and hydro-logical cycle

Human-induced factorsPopulation growthUrbanisationFood & Agriculture

Survival Hexagon: 6 key factors

9.1. Global 9.1. Global Climate Climate Change: Change: Temperature IncreasesTemperature Increases

2 Climate Change Impacts: Temperature & Sea level RiseGlobal average temperature

rise in 20th century: + 0.6°CProj. temperature rise:

1990-2100: +1.4 – 5. 8°C Sources: IPCC 1990, 1995, 2001

9.2. 9.2. ClimateClimate Change Impacts in Change Impacts in MediterraneanMediterranean

Mean Temperature Change for Summer in 2080s (WG II, p. 651)Mean Precipitation Change for Summer in 2080s (WG II, p. 652) Source: IPCC: Climate Change 2001, WG II: Impacts (p. 651-652)No specific climate change models for South. & East. Mediterranean

9.3. 9.3. Effects Effects of of Climate Climate Change Change for Egypt for Egypt & & Nile Nile DeltaDelta

Global Climate Change: Sea level rise: 1860-2100IPCC, TAR, WG 2 (2001):

Sea level rise 1860-2000: 0.1 – 0.2 m;Sea level rise: 1990-2100:+ 0.09-0,88 m

Climate Change Impacts: Egypt:Nil Delta: 50cm, 2 mio. persons,214.000 jobsTemperature Cairo to 2060: + 4°CSSR (cereals): 1990-2060: 60 10%Yield decline for wheat: 2050: -18%

9.4. 9.4. Climate Climate Change Impacts on Change Impacts on PrecipitationPrecipitation

9.6. Global 9.6. Global Fresh Water Fresh Water Stress, 1995-2025 (UNEP)Stress, 1995-2025 (UNEP)

The MENA Region has been and will remain the region with thehighest water stress that will become even more severe due topopulation growth and climate change (temperature rise).

9.7. 9.7. MediterraneanMediterranean Population Trends Population Trends

Decline in Southern Europe, major population increase in MENA

180.9339.9413.2342.7232.3154.073.3538.3525.5510 + Libya

84.3144.5173.8142.989.562.629.2516.0512.45EasternMediterr.

96,6195.3239.4199.8142.891.444.122.313.1NorthAfrica

-2.356.4323.9926.3226.3417.610.37.75BalkansYug.&Alb.

0.1360.501.311.321.170.940.810.420.28EU Cand.

-23.221.2154.1172.5177.3167.3132.9103.583.0S. Europe(F,G,I, S, P)

2000-2050

1950-2050

2050202520001980195019001850

ChangesProj. med. var.Real population change

9.8. Population Growth: Eastern 9.8. Population Growth: Eastern MediterraneanMediterranean

Table: UN Population Projection (Rev. 2000), mio.Source: UN Populations Division: World Population Prospects. 2000 Rev.

141.43

86.61

27.41

4.58

7.15

8.49

7.19

2025

-23.24+21.2154.1177.3132.9103.583.0S. Europe

84.28144.53173.8889.5029.2516.0512.45East. Med.

43.1578.0198,8255.6720.8113.010.0Turkey

20.1632.8536.3516.193.501.751.5Syria

1.523.585.023.501.440.50.35Lebanon

8.6310.8211.823.191.010.50.35OPT

4.038.8110.076.041.26 Israel

6.8010.4711.714.911.240.30.25Jordan

2000-2050

1950-2050

20502000195019001850

9.9. Urbanisation in 9.9. Urbanisation in thethe Eastern Eastern MediterraneanMediterranean

Table: World Urbanization Prospects (Rev. 2001),% Source:UN Populations Division: World Population Prospects (2002)

54.148.743.037.526.920.817.4Asia

72.469.867.264.751.735.026.7West Asia

77.073.769.965.843.829.721.3Turkey

65.660.655.451.446.736.830.6Syria

93.993.192.189.773.739.622.7Lebanon

76.973.570.066.861.144.037.3Palestine

94.693.993.091.688.677.064.6Israel

84.482.280.178.760.250.935.9Jordan

2030202020102000198019601950

9.10. Food 9.10. Food SecuritySecurity in in the the MENA RegionMENA RegionTable:Cereal balance for the MENA, all cereals (1964-2030).

1.71.31.8‘95-‘3054-1161312321303672052030

1.41.21.5‘15- 3056-851101861083592092015

1.91.42.0’95- 1565-43841297535720895/97

2.42.02.187-9765-38651005636520384/86

2.72.73.177-9785- 1355644030719074/76

2.72.43.667-9786- 540472829217464/66

Alluses

foodAlluses

food

Po-pulation

Pro-duc-tion

Demand

Time

19.../20..

Total(mio.tons)

Per caput (kg)

Growth rates, % p.aSelfsuf-fic.rate %

Nettra-de

Pro-duc-tion

Demand

19

9.11. FAO (2000) 9.11. FAO (2000) Increase Increase in in Cereal Cereal ImportsImportsFAO: 4 March 2003, RomeWorld's population will be betterfed by 2030, but hundreds ofmillions of people in develo-ping countries will remainchronically hungry.Parts of South Asia may be in adifficult position and much ofsub-Saharan Africa will not besignificantly better off than atpresent in the absence of con-certed action by all concerned.Number of hungry people isexpected to decline from 800million today to 440 million in2030.The target of the World FoodSummit (1996) to reducethe number of hungry byhalf by 2015, will not be metby 2030.

9.12. Fatal 9.12. Fatal OutcomesOutcomes: : Earthquakes Earthquakes in in thethe MeditMedit..

9.13. 9.13. Fatalities Fatalities of of DisastersDisasters in Eastern Med. in Eastern Med.Table: Fatalities of Natural Disasters (1975-2001)

33192,24502,37726,087--2,58027,37563Turkey

104,70112,95052,37726,08798803,70027,61395East M.

--------943-1OPT -- 17227--658-662,21155Syria

3,6976082,153,437435,73535,73510 m022,14543,728485Total M.

104,251,5-----105,6454Leban.

2001118,017--330-349,04711Jordan4103111----2,0293111Israel

Aff.KilAff.000

Kill.Affect(000)

KilledAff.000

Kill.Affect(000)

KilledEv

StormsFloodsEarthquakesDroughtTotal

9.14. 9.14. Vulnerability Vulnerability of of Cities Cities to to EarthquakesEarthquakes

????? 0.800??0.414??1945: 0.072Gaza

3.312.922.171.540.880.480.32Aleppo

3.503.072.341.801.120.580.37Damascus

2.472.372.061.581.060.560.34Beirut

2.211.971.430.960.500.220.09Amman

2.632.522.181.801.210.740.42Tel-Aviv

5.535.054.113.212.241.501.04Alexandria

13.7512.6610.558.576.083.712.41Cairo

3.203.012.411.741.050.660.48Izmir

4.083.853.202.541.710.870.54Ankara

12.4911.849.456.543.601.741.08Istanbul

3.13.13.13.02.72.21.8Athens

2015201020001990197519601950City

9.15. Migration Trends in 9.15. Migration Trends in the Mediterraneanthe Mediterranean Table: Net migration rates in the Med. (Zlotnik, 2003:599)

-1.4-0.5-2.3-2.8-2.0South. Medit.

1.0-0.7-2.3-0.91.7East. Medit.

-2.0-0.4-0.2-3.1-2.4NE Mediter.

1.30.20.7-0.5-1.2NW Mediter.

0.1-0.2-0.6-1.4-1.1Mediterranean

Net migration rate-1,788-508-1,840-1,769-997South. Medit.

921-506-1,295-406576East. Medit.

-888-162-71-1,162-823NE Mediter.

2,1243371,079-761-1,521NW Mediter.

369-839-2,127-4,097-2,765Mediterranean

Net number of migrants per year (thousands)1990-20001980-901970-801960-701950-60Region

10. Towards a Proactive: Environmental10. Towards a Proactive: Environmentaland Human Security Policyand Human Security Policy

EU Barcelona process: framework for manifold cooperationEU and all MENA countries (no long-term focus yet!)NATO‘s Mediterranean Dialogue: important framework toinvolve American & Canadians (awareness, agenda-setting)Human Security Network: agenda-setting for humanitarianchallenges (Ireland & Netherlands: EU presidency in 2004)Grotian multilateralism could & should become the basisfor a new transatlantic consensus based on a wide humanand environmental security concept & agenda.Environmental challenges must be early recognised, thisrequires joint agenda-setting and anticipatory learning andpro-active countermeasures to enhance coping capacity!Pro-active initiatives cheaper than reactive crisis managem.

Grotian GoalsGrotian Goals & Return of Mars to Venus & Return of Mars to Venus

In 21st century a Grotian worldview may again reunite Mars & Venus.

Both cannot enjoy life alone.

Neither can survive withoutthe other.

Thus, both need each other!

Thank you for your attention!Send your comments to:Brauch@onlinehome.de

SourcesSources(http://(http://wwwwww..afesafes-press.de/-press.de/htmlhtml/download_/download_hgbhgb..htmlhtml))

Brauch: Climate Change and Conflics(Berlin: BMU 2002)(http://www.bmu.de/en/800/js/download/b_climges/)Brauch-Liotta-Marquina-Rogers-Selim (Eds.): Security andEnvironment in the Mediterranean(Berlin – New York – Paris – London-Milan: Springer 2003)(http://www.afes-press.de/ html/ bk_book_of_year.html)Next workshop: The Hague,9-11 Sept.2004: Reconceptualising Security inan Era of Globalisation (5th Paneuro-pean Conference on Int. Relations)

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