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Monthly Movements in the New Claimant Counts (CC)

Monitoring the local labour market

and business news

The Hampshire

Labour Market Bulletin

November 2016

CC Number

Down by 150 to 10,260

CC Rate

Unchanged at 0.9%

CC 16-24 Number

Down by 10 to 2,255

CC 16-24 Rate

Unchanged at 1.0%

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20,000

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Nov-89

Nov-90

Nov-91

Nov-92

Nov-93

Nov-94

Nov-95

Nov-96

Nov-97

Nov-98

Nov-99

Nov-00

Nov-01

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Nov-07

Nov-08

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Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Hampshire Economic Area Unemployed Benefit Claimant Count Number and Working Age Rates (% 16-64yrs): 1989-2016

rece

ssio

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Rate

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Number

Number Working Age Working Age %

Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) November 2016 Headlines

Nationally, and using the Government’s preferred ILO estimates, the employment rate is 74.4% for the three months to October 2016. The unemployment rate is 4.8%. Locally, the nearest equivalent HEA employment rate is 77.7% for the 12 months to June 2016, while the unemployment rate is 4.5%. The more current, but narrower monthly claimant count in the HEA is down by 150 claimants to stand at 10,260 for November 2016. The rate is unchanged at 0.9%.

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National (ILO) Dashboard (3 mths to October 2016 and change on previous quarter)

Employment Number

31.76 million (-6,000)

Unemployment Number

1.62 million (-16,000)

Economic Inactivity Number

8.91 million (+76,000)

16-24 Unemployment Number

587,000 (-34,000)

Employment Rate

74.4% (-0.1ppts)

Unemployment Rate

4.8% (unchanged)

Economic Inactivity Rate

21.7% (+0.2ppt)

16-24 Unemployment Rate

13.1% (unchanged)

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79.275.3 78.2 77.7

73.9 74.0 74.1 74.1 74.1 74.2 74.2 74.4 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

% e

mpl

oyed

(16+

)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK ILO Rates and Nearest Equivalent for the HEA

4.1 4.04.4 4.5

5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

% u

nem

ploy

ed (1

6+)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Unemployment Rate Comparison

The Government’s preferred ILO definition from the ONS Labour Force Survey is not published below the regional level. For a local comparison that provides the nearest equivalent statistic there is the Annual Population Survey. This is published quarterly covering a 12 month period. The dates in the charts refer to the LFS period not the APS.

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Employment Rate Comparison

Page | 4

Employment

Number Employment numbers were slightly down on the quarter by 6,000 to reach 31.76 million. Annually,

employment is up by 342,000. There are signs of the labour market flattening out.

Rate The UK employment rate is 74.4% for the three months to October 2016. This is down by 0.1 of a

percentage point on the quarter, while the annual rate is up by half of a percentage point. For a local comparison, the nearest equivalent employment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.7% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 79.5% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Status Full-time employment decreased on the quarter by 51,000 to 23.20 million, while Part-time

employment is up by 46,000 on the quarter to 8.56 million. The number of employees is down by 6,000 on the quarter to 26.82 million, while self-employment decreased by 2,000 to 4.75 million. The number of unpaid family workers is up by 14,000 to 124,000, while the number on government supported training employment programmes is down by 12,000 to 68,000.

Pay and Inflation (Average Weekly Earnings and Consumer Price Index)

• Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.5% including bonuses and by 2.6% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.2% in the year to November 2016, compared with a 0.9% rise in the year to October. The rate in November was the highest since October 2014, when it was 1.3%.

ILO unemployment (Government's preferred measure from the LFS Survey

Number National ILO unemployment numbers are down by 16,000 on the quarter to 1.62 million for the three

months to October 2016. On the year the number is down by 103,000.

Rate The national unemployment rate is 4.8%, and unchanged on the quarter. The rate is down by 0.3 of a

percentage point on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 4.5% compared to 3.6% in the Hampshire County Council area.

Youth Unemployment Number and Rate

Nationally, the number of 16 to 24 year olds out of work is down by 34,000 on the quarter to 587,000. The rate for 16-24yrs is 13.1% and unchanged. Locally, the nearest equivalent 16-24yrs unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 11.5% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 10.5% for the Hampshire County area.

Economic Inactivity

The UK working age economic inactivity rate stands at 21.7%, and is 0.2 of a percentage point higher on the quarter. The number of economically inactive people is up by 76,000 on the quarter to 8.91 million, but is down by 56,000 on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 19.0% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 17.12% for the Hampshire County Council area.

National Commentary

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Nearest Equivalent Local ILO Labour Market Statistics (next update January 2017)

Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO employment rate in the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.7% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 79.5% in the Hampshire County area.

The HEA ILO unemployment rate is 4.5% compared to 3.6% in the Hampshire County Council area. The nearest equivalent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds in the Hampshire Economic Area is 11.5% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 10.5% for the Hampshire County Council area.

The nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 19.0% for the

12 months to June 2016, and 17.2% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Claimant Count Number and Rates

Under the unemployed Claimant Count measure (JSA + UC),the number of claimants for November 2016 is 10,260. This represents a decrease of 150 claimants on October 2016, but 70 additional claimants compared to November 2015.

The unemployed claimant count rate is unchanged at 0.9% and unchanged on the year. The South East rate is unchanged at 1.1%, while the UK rate is down by 0.1 of a percentage point to 1.8%. As such, the Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) rate is half the UK rate.

Nine of the 14 HEA and Isle of Wight local authority districts saw a monthly decrease in unemployment benefit claimants, ranging from five fewer claimants in Eastleigh and Gosport to 50 fewer claimants in Southampton. Four authorities saw a monthly increase, ranging from 10 additional claimants in Hart to 150 on the Isle of Wight. Rushmoor reported no monthly change.

New Claimant Count Number by Gender

Male unemployed benefit claimant numbers for November 2016 are down by 50 on October 2016 to 6,535. Female numbers are down by 100 to 3,725 claimants. Annual unemployment benefit claimant numbers for males are up on the year (November 2015) by 70, while female numbers are unchanged.

New Claimant Count Youth Unemployment

The level of 16-24 year olds on unemployment benefit decreased on the month by 10 and down to 2,255. The rate is unchanged on the month at 1.0%.

DWP Worklessness May 2016 (next update is Feb 2017 for Aug 2016 statistics)

The Hampshire Economic Area worklessness number stood at 70,600 for May 2016, a decrease of 2,470 on May 2015. The worklessness rate is 6.2%, and down by 0.2 of a percentage point on the year. This compares to the national rate of 8.7%. The annual decrease in worklessness claimants is mostly be attributed to 1,850 fewer JSA claimants. While Lone Parent and Other income benefits are each down by approximately 500 claimants, ESA/IB claimants rose by 500 on the year to 50,900.

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) Year 12 and 13 cohort (16-17yr olds)

The Actual NEET figure for October 2016 is 1.5%. Please note this is a change to the previous adjusted NEET figures for years 12-14 (see Glossary). October 2016 NEET are not comparable to previous figures.

Local Commentary

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Job Creation and Planned Developments Universal Tool & Production is to set up a 30,000 sq ft engineering facility at Faraday Business Park in Daedalus,

with the creation of up to 40 jobs. [07-Dec-2016]

Exclaimer has secured a £23m investment from Livingbridge in the expansion of its Farnborough-based email signature software business. [07-Dec-2016]

Babcock is to expand its 10,000 sq ft engineering services office at 1000 Lakeside in Portsmouth to 55,000 sq ft.

[30-Nov-2016]

Applegreen is in talks to open a service area on the M3 near Basingstoke. [29-Nov-2016]

Places for People Leisure Management has won a contract from Test Valley Borough Council to operate its sports facilities across the Test Valley, with the transfer of 300 staff from Valley Leisure. [29-Nov-2016]

Village Urban Resorts is planning to open a £20m hotel with 153 bedrooms in Basingstoke, as part of a five-year

plan to double its 28-strong portfolio. [23-Nov-2016]

IBM is to open four new cloud data storage centres, including sites in Fareham and Farnborough by early next year, with the creation of an unspecified number of jobs. [23-Nov-2016]

Rapanui is planning to invest £1m in the expansion of its Isle of Wight-based eco fashion business over the next

two years, including up to 20 new jobs. [22-Nov-2016]

Think Ford is creating 30 jobs at a new car dealership in Basingstoke. [17-Nov-2016]

NDreams has secured a further £2m of investment in the expansion of its Farnborough-based virtual reality gaming business. [17-Nov-2016]

Pure Offices is to open a new business centre with 60 units of up to 1,000 sq ft in Portsmouth by February,

taking its portfolio to 17. [14-Nov-2016] Relocations, Mergers and Acquisitions Koh Thai Tapas, the chain of 12 restaurants in Dorset, Hampshire, Somerset and Wiltshire with about 300 staff,

has undergone a management buy-out with backing from Alcuin Capital Partners. [06-Dec-2016]

Cording Real Estate Group has acquired CapRes, the Winchester-based private rental sector firm. [22-Nov-2016]

Job Losses ,Closures and Administration

None reported from source

Business Activity reported between November 2016 and December 2016

Local Business News

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The International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) definitions are the Government’s preferred measure of labour market statistics, and taken as an estimate from the Labour Force Survey. A person is deemed to be unemployed if they are aged 16 and over who are without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. The Annual Population Survey modelled data for unemployment are used for the nearest equivalent ILO estimates for Local Authorities, although the two are not directly comparable. The ILO differs to the JSA claimant data, which is an actual count of those aged 16+ who are eligible and signed on as actively seeking work.

ILO Unemployment as percentage of economically-active population (seasonally adjusted) Aug 2016 –Oct 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

South East region 84,000 3.4 80,000 3.6 164,000 3.5 -2,000 -9.000

United Kingdom 888,000 5.0 728,000 4.7 1,616,000 4.8 -16,000 -103,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Estimates are taken from a three quarter rolling average with seasonal adjustments. Quarter difference compared to previous non-overlapping three month quarter average. Change on year refers to the same quarter period from the previous year.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Labour Market Indicators (next update January 2017)

12 months to June 2016

Labour Supply Labour Demand Employment Modelled Unemployment Economic Inactivity Jobs 2014 Total 000’s % Total

000’s %a %b Total 000’s % Total

000’s Density

Hampshire (CC) 689 79.5 28 3.6 3.3 142 17.2 697 0.85

Basingstoke & Deane 92 79.3 4 3.7 3.9 18 16.8 88 0.80

East Hampshire 56 74.0 2 3.3 3.9 16 22.1 56 0.79

Eastleigh 71 82.0 2 3.1 2.5 13 15.5 67 0.83

Fareham 57 77.5 2 3.7 5.2 12 17.3 59 0.85

Gosport 43 78.3 2 4.1 5.0 9 16.7 27 0.51

Hart 47 79.7 1 2.7 1.7 10 18.6 51 0.89

Havant 57 74.9 3 5.1 4.1 15 21.0 54 0.74

New Forest 87 80.9 3 3.3 2.6 17 16.5 80 0.79

Rushmoor 55 86.8 2 3.0 4.2 6 9.0 54 0.85

Test Valley 59 78.0 2 3.2 3.0 14 19.0 70 0.96

Winchester 64 83.1 2 2.5 0.0 12 16.9 92 1.26

Portsmouth 100 70.9 7 6.3 4.0 35 25.1 122 0.86

Southampton 128 73.4 9 6.3 4.4 38 22.2 131 0.78

Hampshire (HEA) 918 77.7 43 4.5 3.3 215 19.0 950 0.83

Isle of Wight 61 75.5 3 5.4 3.9 16 20.6 59 0.74

South East region* 4,462 77.3 192 4.1 3.5 1,061 19.2 4,678 0.85

United Kingdom* 31,327 73.7 1,684 5.1 4.0 9,116 22.3 33,469 0.82 Source: ONS Modelled Unemployment/Annual Population Survey. Totals represent '000s. Data are not seasonally adjusted.‘a’ Unemployment rate using 16+ population. ‘b’ Unemployed rate derived from Employed and Economically Inactive rates *Data from APS. **HEA unemployed rates are derived by aggregating from the ONS model based unemployment data and the latest APS 16+ unemployment denominator. The Modelled count and rate will be different (and lower) to the APS count and rate.

National and Regional ILO Labour Market with Local ILO Nearest Equivalents

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The Office for National Statistics produces adjustments to take account of seasonal variations in demand for labour, but only at the national and regional level. This measure is commonly quoted by the national media. The second set are seasonally unadjusted claimant count published at the local level. This local measure is most commonly used by local authorities as the more timely, but narrower measure of unemployment. Seasonally adjusted National and Regional Claimant Counts 18+ Number* and % working age** (experimental) November 2016 Male Female Total Change On The

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year South East region 39,569 1.4 23,353 0.8 62,922 1.1 6 3,602

United Kingdom 515,707 2.5 293,338 1.4 809,045 2.0 2,354 23,453

Source: ONS. *ONS First Release JSA seasonally adjusted + Universal Credit seasonally adjusted. **ONS First Release use Jobseeker's Allowance + out-of-work Universal Credit + Workforce jobs as the denominator.

The Universal Credit (UC), a single payment for people who are looking for work or are on a low income, was first piloted in 2013, and then rolled out in phases nationally to Jobcentre Plus offices (JCPs). Local JCPs in Hampshire started to go ‘live’ in April 2015 (Southampton), while all of Hampshire’s JCPs are scheduled to go ‘live’ by April 2016. In light of the number of JCPs recording ‘live’ Universal Credit data, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the new experimental Claimant Counts on 11 November 2015. This data records eligible persons claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus new or transferred claimants who are out of work and claiming Universal Credit. The ONS called the new dataset the Claimant Count. The previous claimant counts based only on JSA are still collected and published, but referred to as the Jobseekers Allowance. Users need to be aware of these differences. The ONS decided to replace the number of people claiming only Jobseeker's Allowance as the headline indicator for the number of people claiming benefits, principally for the reason of being unemployed, and use the new Claimant Count as the headline i.e. JSA + Universal Credit. This changes will impact on those areas where Universal Credit data has already gone ‘live’. Locally, this will be in Southampton and Eastleigh, where collection has taken place over a longer period. For other areas, there will be no immediate or noticeable difference between the ‘old’ JSA and the new claimant count. Eventually, all unemployed claimants will be transferred to the Universal Credit. The new Claimant Count dataset does not currently publish claimants by duration or sought occupation. The two tables in the Labour Market Bulletin that captures this data will continue to be published, but using the JSA only data i.e. it will not include any new Universal Credit (UC) claimants.

Seasonally and Non-Seasonally adjusted Claimant Count Trends

New (experimental) Claimant Count and Jobseekers Allowance Only Local Data

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Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts

Nov 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 3,730 0.9 2,220 0.5 5,955 0.7 -120 80 Basingstoke & Deane 515 0.9 320 0.6 835 0.8 -35 125 East Hampshire 240 0.7 170 0.5 410 0.6 -30 10 Eastleigh 330 0.8 180 0.4 510 0.6 -5 -5 Fareham 250 0.7 160 0.5 410 0.6 -15 -15 Gosport 370 1.4 205 0.8 575 1.1 -5 0 Hart 155 0.5 85 0.3 240 0.4 10 5 Havant 620 1.7 390 1.0 1,010 1.4 20 -70 New Forest 410 0.8 210 0.4 620 0.6 -20 5 Rushmoor 340 1.1 200 0.6 540 0.9 0 -25 Test Valley 260 0.7 160 0.4 420 0.6 -30 20 Winchester 240 0.7 140 0.4 385 0.5 -10 30 Portsmouth 1,280 1.7 735 1.1 2,015 1.4 20 15 Southampton 1,520 1.7 770 0.9 2,290 1.3 -50 -25 Hampshire (HEA) 6,535 1.1 3,725 0.7 10,260 0.9 -150 70 Isle of Wight 955 2.4 505 1.2 1,465 1.8 150 -75 Enterprise M3 LEP 3,650 0.8 2,185 0.5 5,835 0.6 -30 540 Solent LEP 5,670 1.3 3,155 0.8 8,820 1.2 95 -180 South East region* 37,215 1.3 22,570 0.8 59,785 1.1 -60 3,845 Great Britain 456,435 2.3 269,850 1.3 726,290 1.8 -6,270 26,980 United Kingdom 478,960 2.3 280,090 1.4 759,050 1.8 -7,180 21,055 Source: ONS.

Claimant Counts Relative to the UK and South East region (November 2016)

Claimant Counts and Change on Month and Year

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Total Claimant Count Number change on previous month

Source: ONS

Total Claimant Count Number Annual Change

Source: ONS The ONS monthly claimant count numbers at this geographic level are seasonally unadjusted i.e. do not factor in naturally occurring underlying cycles in seasonal demand for labour. To compare on a like-for-like basis to the same period in the previous year should be looked at to gauge if unemployment is better or worse. At the national and regional level ONS produce seasonally adjusted JSA that take account of seasonal variations, although these are not comparable to the local data (see page 8).

Solent (LEP), 95Enterprise M3 (LEP), -30

Isle of Wight, 150Hampshire (HEA), -150

Hampshire (HCC), -120Southampton, -50

Portsmouth, 20Winchester, -10

Test Valley, -30Rushmoor, 0

New Forest, -20Havant, 20

Hart, 10

Gosport, -5Fareham, -15

Eastleigh, -5East Hampshire, -30

Basingstoke & Deane, -35

-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300

November 2016 unemployment claimant count (JSA+UC) change on October 2016

Solent (LEP), -180Enterprise M3 (LEP), 540

Isle of Wight, -75Hampshire (HEA), 70

Hampshire (HCC), 80Southampton, -25

Portsmouth, 15Winchester, 30

Test Valley, 20Rushmoor, -25

New Forest, 5Havant, -70

Hart, 5Gosport, 0

Fareham, -15Eastleigh, -5

East Hampshire, 10Basingstoke & Deane, 125

-300 -100 100 300 500 700

Nov 2016 unemployment benefit claimant count (JSA+UC) change on Nov 2015

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UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Aug 2016 to Oct 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

16-17 years 63,000 30.3 59,000 24.3 122,000 27.1 -18,000 No change 16-24 years 354,000 15.1 233,000 10.7 587,000 13.1 -34,000 -38,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (16-24yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jan 2017). 12 months to Jun 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 10,200 10.5 2,300 2.2

Portsmouth 2,300 13.3 -600 -2.8 Southampton 4,000 13.6 800 -0.4

Hampshire (HEA) 16,500 11.5 2,400 1.2

Isle of Wight 1,500 15.0 0 0.0

Enterprise M3 LEP 11,100 11.4 4,500 4.6 Solent LEP 13,900 13.3 1,200 0.1 South East region 79,400 12.6 -1,600 -0.9 Great Britain 622,100 14.1 -70,100 -1.6 United Kingdom 640,700 14.1 -75,500 -1.8 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points)

Seasonally unadjusted Claimants Counts (16-24yrs) – The more up to date, but much narrower definition of youth unemployment.

Nov 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 825 1.2 510 0.8 1,335 1.0 -10 115

Basingstoke & Deane 90 1.1 65 0.8 155 1.0 5 45 East Hampshire 60 1.0 30 0.6 90 0.8 -10 20 Eastleigh 90 1.4 45 0.7 140 1.1 0 25 Fareham 50 0.8 40 0.8 90 0.8 0 5 Gosport 95 2.0 65 1.6 165 1.8 10 10 Hart 25 0.6 10 0.3 35 0.4 10 -5 Havant 155 2.4 90 1.5 245 1.9 5 -20 New Forest 100 1.2 55 0.7 155 1.0 -5 5 Rushmoor 65 1.3 45 0.9 110 1.1 -10 10 Test Valley 50 0.9 40 0.7 90 0.8 -15 20 Winchester 40 0.6 25 0.3 65 0.4 10 5 Portsmouth 235 1.2 160 1.0 395 1.1 25 35 Southampton 335 1.3 190 0.8 525 1.1 -20 15

Hampshire (HEA) 1,395 1.2 860 0.8 2,255 1.0 -10 165

Isle of Wight 245 3.6 110 1.8 350 2.7 15 5 Enterprise M3 LEP 675 0.9 405 0.5 1,080 0.7 -10 230 Solent LEP 1,295 1.5 750 1.0 2,040 1.3 30 80 South East region 7,835 1.6 4,775 1.0 12,605 1.3 -145 1,195 Great Britain 102,175 2.8 59,105 1.7 161,280 2.2 -4,550 6,285 United Kingdom 107,630 2.8 61,545 1.7 169,175 2.3 -5,010 4,010 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Young People (16-24) ILO unemployment and Claimant Counts

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UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Aug 2016 to Oct 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

18-24 years 291,000 13.8 174,000 9.0 465,000 11.5 -17,000 -38,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

There is no 18-24 APS Unemployment by age category to give a nearest equivalent.

Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts (18-24yrs) - The more up to date, but much narrower definition of unemployment Few 16 or 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA/UC, so the 18-24 year measure is often used as an alternative.

Nov 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 820 1.6 510 1.1 1,330 1.3 -10 110

Basingstoke & Deane 90 1.5 65 1.1 155 1.3 5 45 East Hampshire 60 1.4 30 0.8 90 1.1 -10 20 Eastleigh 90 1.9 45 1.0 135 1.4 -5 20 Fareham 50 1.1 40 1.0 90 1.1 0 5 Gosport 95 2.5 65 2.0 160 2.3 5 5 Hart 25 0.8 10 0.4 35 0.6 10 -5 Havant 155 3.1 90 1.9 245 2.5 5 -20 New Forest 100 1.7 55 1.0 155 1.3 0 5 Rushmoor 65 1.6 45 1.2 110 1.4 -10 10 Test Valley 50 1.2 40 1.0 90 1.1 -15 20 Winchester 40 0.7 25 0.4 65 0.5 10 5 Portsmouth 235 1.4 160 1.1 395 1.2 25 40 Southampton 335 1.5 190 0.9 525 1.2 -20 15

Hampshire (HEA) 1,390 1.5 855 1.0 2,250 1.3 -5 170

Isle of Wight 245 4.7 110 2.4 350 3.6 15 10 Enterprise M3 LEP 675 1.1 405 0.7 1,080 0.9 -5 235 Solent LEP 1,290 1.8 745 1.2 2,035 1.5 30 85 South East region 7,810 2.0 4,745 1.3 12,555 1.6 -135 1,190 Great Britain 101,820 3.5 58,720 2.1 160,540 2.8 -4,570 6,215 United Kingdom 107,265 3.6 61,160 2.1 168,420 2.9 -5,030 3,945 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5. The 18-24 year old claimant count is sometimes preferred over the 16-24 age group as few 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA or Universal Credit, with the majority of 16-24yr old claimants falling within the 18-24 broad age group.

Young People (18-24) ILO unemployment and Claimant Counts

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Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (25-49yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jan 2017) 12 months to Jun 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 11,900 3.2 1,300 0.5

Portsmouth 2,200 3.6 -100 -0.1 Southampton 2,800 3.6 -100 -0.2

Hampshire (HEA) 17,000 3.3 1,300 0.3

Isle of Wight 1,100 3.6 -800 -2.9

Enterprise M3 LEP 11,900 2.8 -1,700 -0.3 Solent LEP 10,800 3.2 -300 0.0 South East region 77,300 3.0 -7,100 -0.3 Great Britain 707,000 3.9 -82,500 -0.5 United Kingdom 730,600 3.9 -82,800 -0.5 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (25-49yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

Nov 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,805 0.9 1,080 0.5 2,890 0.7 -100 -115

Basingstoke & Deane 265 0.9 165 0.5 425 0.7 -35 35 East Hampshire 105 0.7 85 0.5 190 0.6 -15 -10 Eastleigh 160 0.8 95 0.4 255 0.6 -5 -5 Fareham 130 0.8 75 0.4 205 0.6 -5 -10 Gosport 185 1.4 85 0.6 270 1.0 -15 -30 Hart 80 0.5 40 0.3 120 0.4 -10 0 Havant 285 1.7 185 1.0 470 1.3 5 -55 New Forest 175 0.8 105 0.4 280 0.6 -15 -15 Rushmoor 170 0.9 100 0.5 270 0.7 10 -45 Test Valley 125 0.7 75 0.4 200 0.5 -5 0 Winchester 120 0.7 80 0.4 200 0.6 -20 10 Portsmouth 700 1.9 405 1.1 1,110 1.5 -20 -35 Southampton 815 1.8 430 1.0 1,245 1.4 -25 -35

Hampshire (HEA) 3,325 1.1 1,920 0.7 5,245 0.9 -140 -180

Isle of Wight 450 2.5 255 1.3 700 1.9 70 -100 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,815 0.8 1,170 0.5 2,980 0.6 -40 135 Solent LEP 2,885 1.5 1,620 0.8 4,505 1.1 -10 -280 South East region 18,995 1.3 11,890 0.8 30,885 1.1 -15 880 Great Britain 242,865 2.3 144,505 1.4 387,370 1.8 -2,640 3,085 United Kingdom 254,500 2.3 149,460 1.4 403,960 1.9 -3,050 -390 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Younger Working Age (25-49yrs) ILO unemployment and Claimant Count

Page | 14

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (50-64yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jan 2017) 12 months to Jun 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 4,600 2.2 200 0.0

Portsmouth 1,100 4.3 200 0.6 Southampton 700 2.6 -400 -1.0

Hampshire (HEA) 6,300 2.4 -100 -0.1

Isle of Wight ~ 1.6 n/a -2.8

Enterprise M3 LEP 5,200 2.2 -400 -0.4 Solent LEP 4,400 2.7 -1,200 -0.6 South East region 33,100 2.6 -4,500 -0.4 Great Britain 286,700 3.4 -9,800 -0.2 United Kingdom 295,500 3.4 -11,400 -0.2 Source: Annual Population Survey. ~ less than 500. PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (50-64yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

Nov 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,095 0.8 630 0.5 1,725 0.6 -10 75

Basingstoke & Deane 160 1.0 90 0.5 255 0.8 -5 45 East Hampshire 75 0.6 50 0.4 130 0.5 -5 0 Eastleigh 75 0.6 40 0.3 115 0.5 0 -25 Fareham 70 0.6 45 0.4 120 0.5 -5 -5 Gosport 85 1.0 55 0.7 145 0.9 10 25 Hart 50 0.6 35 0.4 85 0.5 5 5 Havant 180 1.5 120 0.9 300 1.2 15 5 New Forest 135 0.7 50 0.3 185 0.5 0 15 Rushmoor 105 1.3 55 0.7 160 1.0 5 10 Test Valley 85 0.7 45 0.4 125 0.5 -15 -5 Winchester 75 0.7 35 0.3 115 0.5 -5 15 Portsmouth 345 2.1 170 1.0 510 1.5 15 15 Southampton 370 2.0 150 0.8 520 1.4 0 -5

Hampshire (HEA) 1,810 1.1 950 0.6 2,755 0.8 0 85

Isle of Wight 265 1.8 145 0.9 410 1.4 60 15 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,155 0.8 610 0.4 1,765 0.6 20 170 Solent LEP 1,490 1.0 785 0.7 2,275 1.1 80 25 South East region 10,360 1.3 5,890 0.7 16,250 1.0 100 1,790 Great Britain 111,060 1.9 66,030 1.1 177,090 1.5 1,010 18,045 United Kingdom 116,325 2.0 68,820 1.1 185,150 1.5 970 17,910 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Older Working Age (50-64yrs) ILO unemployment and Claimant Count

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Main Worklessness Measures (Hierarchical Counts*). Next update Feb 2017 (Aug 2016 data)

May 2016 Main Out of Work

Jobseekers Allowance ESA/IB Lone Parent

Other Income based

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Hampshire CC 44,100 5.4 5,070 0.6 32,470 3.9 5,550 0.7 1,010 0.1 B’stoke & Deane 5,790 5.3 770 0.7 4,140 3.8 760 0.7 130 0.1 East Hampshire 3,060 4.3 360 0.5 2,310 3.3 320 0.5 60 0.1 Eastleigh 3,820 4.8 390 0.5 2,880 3.6 480 0.6 80 0.1 Fareham 3,090 4.4 380 0.5 2,320 3.3 310 0.5 70 0.1 Gosport 4,150 7.9 470 0.9 2,980 5.7 600 1.2 90 0.2 Hart 1,730 3.0 220 0.4 1,240 2.2 240 0.4 30 0.0 Havant 6,460 8.8 880 1.2 4,480 6.1 950 1.3 150 0.2 New Forest 5,680 5.6 510 0.5 4,370 4.3 650 0.6 140 0.1 Rushmoor 3,800 6.0 460 0.7 2,720 4.3 500 0.8 130 0.2 Test Valley 3,490 4.8 300 0.4 2,670 3.7 440 0.6 80 0.1 Winchester 3,040 4.1 330 0.4 2,340 3.2 310 0.4 60 0.1 Portsmouth 12,120 8.5 1,750 1.2 8,190 5.7 1,860 1.3 320 0.2 Southampton 14,380 8.4 1,690 1.0 10,240 5.9 2,110 1.2 340 0.2 Hampshire (HEA) 70,600 6.2 8,510 0.7 50,900 4.5 9,530 0.8 1,670 0.1 Isle of Wight 8,090 10.1 1,070 1.3 5,910 7.4 890 1.1 220 0.3 Enterprise M3 LEP 47,310 4.6 5,170 0.5 35,020 3.4 6,090 0.6 1,030 0.1 Solent LEP 52,110 5.3 6,630 0.7 37,010 3.7 7,200 0.7 1,270 0.1 South East reg. 345,650 6.2 45,590 0.8 245,780 4.4 46,130 0.8 8,150 0.1 Great Britain 3,502,820 8.7 536,200 1.3 2,464,740 6.2 416,470 1.0 85,410 0.2 Source: Department for Work and Pensions *To avoid double counting the out-of-work benefit claimants are allocated to one benefit using a hierarchical system, so that a person claiming Employment Support Allowance (ESA) and Lone Parent benefits would be counted under ESA and so forth.

Working Age Out-of-Work Benefit Claimant Rates Relative to the GB and South East region

Quarter Worklessness Statistics

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Ward (2015) Claimant Count Hotspots November 2016

Top and Bottom 25 Wards by New Claimant Count Number and Rate (Nov 2016)

25 Wards with highest Claimant Count 25 Wards with lowest Claimant Count

Ward 2015 District No. Rate Ward 2015 District No. Rate Ryde North East Isle of Wight 105 4.5 Littleton and Harestock Winchester 5 0.3 Sandown North Isle of Wight 55 3.1 Broughton and Stockbridge Test Valley 5 0.3 Ryde South Isle of Wight 85 3.0 Over Wallop Test Valley 5 0.3 Charles Dickens Portsmouth 385 2.9 Romsey Extra Test Valley 5 0.3 Shanklin Central Isle of Wight 65 2.9 Downlands and Forest New Forest 5 0.3 Warren Park Havant 130 2.7 Alton Amery East Hampshire 5 0.3 Newport East Isle of Wight 55 2.7 Alton Wooteys East Hampshire 5 0.3 Ryde North West Isle of Wight 55 2.7 Grayshott East Hampshire 5 0.3 Lake North Isle of Wight 60 2.6 Lindford East Hampshire 5 0.3 Battins Havant 110 2.5 Tadley Central B & D 5 0.3 Newport Central Isle of Wight 65 2.5 Blackwater Test Valley 5 0.2 Bondfields Havant 105 2.4 Boldre and Sway New Forest 5 0.2 Sandown South Isle of Wight 60 2.4 Forest North West New Forest 5 0.2 Ventnor East Isle of Wight 40 2.4 Froxfield and Steep East Hampshire 5 0.2 Ryde East Isle of Wight 50 2.3 The Hangers and Forest East Hampshire 5 0.2 Shanklin South Isle of Wight 45 2.3 East Woodhay B & D 5 0.2 Bitterne Southampton 195 2.2 Upton Grey and The Candovers B & D 5 0.2 Whippingham & Osborne Isle of Wight 50 2.2 Sparsholt Winchester 0 0.0 Lake South Isle of Wight 35 2.2 Ropley and Tisted East Hampshire 0 0.0 Woolston Southampton 195 2.1 Itchen Valley Winchester 0 0.0 Barncroft Havant 90 2.1 Swanmore and Newtown Winchester 0 0.0 Town Gosport 75 2.1 Ampfield and Braishfield Test Valley 0 0.0 Nelson Portsmouth 205 2.0 Bramshaw, Copythorne N. & Minstead New Forest 0 0.0 Ryde West Isle of Wight 45 2.0 Binsted and Bentley East Hampshire 0 0.0 Ventnor West Isle of Wight 30 2.0 Sherborne St John B & D 0 0.0 Source: NOMIS. Ranked highest to lowest by Rate and then by Number. B&D Basingstoke & Deane.~ Not available. Numbers below 3 are shown as 0 in the raw data and are equal to either 0, 1 or 2 claimants. All data are rounded to the nearest 5 and may not precisely add to the sum of the number of people claiming JSA, published on Nomis, and the number of out-of-work people claiming Universal Credit, published by DWP, due to independent rounding..

Small Area Claimant Count Hotspots

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There are several methods used to record young people who are considered to be not in education, employment or training. The three primary sources come from the annual Participation in Education, Training and Employment First Release, the Quarterly NEETS derived from the Labour Force Survey, and from local authority Client Caseload Information Systems (CCIS) as an annual adjusted average published by the Department for Education. Local Authority CCIS data is captured monthly. How to interpret the local monthly adjusted NEET data can be found on Page 20. The three sources are not comparable. The 2014 Annual Department for Education’s Statistical First Release (SFR): Participation in Education, Training and Employment by 16-18 Year Olds in England (Next update June 2017)

The primary source of national data on 16-18 year old NEETs. The latest annual provisional rate for 16-18 year olds, at end 2015, was 6.5%, a fall of 1.1 percentage points from 7.6% at end of 2014.

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (DfE LFS Series Quarter 2, 2016)

16-18 NEET % Quarter 2: Apr-Jun 2016 Change on year (Apr-Jun 2015)

Percentage points England 8.0% +0.5 (7.5%) Source: Labour Force Survey LFS allows in-year estimates to be made of NEET. The quarterly LFS estimates cannot be directly compared with the headline Participation SFR series based on more detailed but less timely data.

Local NEET

DfE Annual Local Authority 16- 18-year olds Not in Education, Employment or Training (2015) 16-18 NEET Estimated NEET Estimated NEET %

Hampshire CC 1,230 3.0% Portsmouth CC 330 5.6% Southampton CC 320 4.7% Isle of Wight 120 2.8% South East region 10.870 3.9% Source: Department for Education. Published March 2015. The ‘local authority NEET figures’ provides an annual estimate, based on average figures for November 2013 to January 2014 each year.

Actual NEET Monthly Local Authorities’ Client Caseload Information System (CCIS) – Oct2016 (yr. 12 and13 cohort only – see Glossary) Local Education Authorities capture monthly NEET for the DfE. These are not comparable to the SFR or LFS series above. See Glossary for further guidance.

NEET Yrs 12 and 13 Oct 2016

Actual NEET % Actual NEET* EET

Hampshire (CC) 1.5% 414 24,933

Basingstoke & Deane 1.7% 64 3,573 East Hampshire 0.9% 23 2,103 Eastleigh 1.3% 36 2,510 Fareham 0.9% 23 2,281 Gosport 2.1% 40 1,701 Hart 0.9% 17 1,672 Havant 2.0% 52 2,231 New Forest 1.3% 42 2,966 Rushmoor 2.2% 36 1,370 Test Valley 2.2% 53 2,322 Winchester 1.1% 28 2,204 Isle of Wight 1.8% 51 2,652 Source: Hampshire County Council. EET (Employment, Education or Training). *Figures are NEET figures by academic age and based on residential postcode not location of educational setting..

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

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Labour Force Survey (LFS)/Annual Population Survey (APS) definitions Economically Active: People aged 16 and over who are either in employment or unemployed. The Economically active rate is the percentage of people aged 16 and over who are economically active. Employment: People aged 16 or over who did paid work in the reference week (whether employed or self-employed); those who had a job that they were temporarily away from; those on government supported training and employment programmes; and those doing unpaid family work (a person who works without pay in an economic enterprise operated by a related person living in the same household). The rate is the percentage of total in employment of all people in the relevant age group. ILO Unemployment: All people aged 16 and over who are:

without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two

weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks.

The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active who are unemployed. Economically Inactive: People who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This group includes, for example,

those looking after the family and/or home Long term ill Students or retired.

The inactive rate is expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 16 and over, but can be calculated for an population group, such as those of working age. Department for Work and Pensions definitions (New) Claimant Count: Based on the administrative records of people claiming unemployed benefits. Since November 2015 this has been the number of people previously claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and new or transferred unemployed claimants on Universal Credit. The claimant count consists of all people claiming JSA+UC at Jobcentre Plus local offices. They must declare that they are out of work, capable of, available for and actively seeking work during the week in which their claim is made. Nationally and regionally, the claimant rate is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a percentage of the sum of claimants and workforce jobs in the area (mid-year estimates are used). Sub-regionally, the claimant count is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a proportion of the resident population of working age. As at August 2010 working age is now 16-64 for both females and males. Worklessness: Benefits that are paid to client groups subject to labour market activation policies, including: Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA); Employment Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit (IB); Lone parent; and Income support (IS). Sought occupations: are the types of occupations claimants are seeking when they register.

Glossary

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Interpreting Local Actual NEET data

Local NEET data follows a common pattern over the course of an academic year, with spikes occurring naturally each September. Young people are in transition over this period and school/college destination records not returned and recorded until October. Thereafter, rates and levels are fairly stable to August. As of September 2016 the NEET are limited to just years 12 and 13 rather than years 12-14 as before. • Local authorities will only be required to include information about young people up to the end of the academic year in which they have their 18th birthday (academic age 16 and 17). Authorities will no longer be required to track young people of academic age 18. From September 2016 the DfE will no longer publish local authority statistics about academic age 18-year-olds. – The DfE will continue to publish annual LA NEET statistics, but these will only cover academic age 16 and 17-year-olds and not academic age 18-year-olds. The NEET figure will be the Actual NEET rather then the Adjusted NEET previously published. The data is not comparable to previous NEET figures and time series will resume in November 2017 with the publication September 2017 NEET. Geography Hampshire (HCC) refers to the County Council area only. The Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) includes Hampshire County Council, Portsmouth City Council and Southampton City Council. Using the ONS definition as at January 2013: The Enterprise M3 LEP covers: New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, East Hampshire, Basingstoke and Deane, Hart, Rushmoor, Guildford, Surrey Heath, Waverley and Woking. The Solent LEP covers the New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, Southampton, Eastleigh, Fareham, Gosport, Portsmouth, East Hampshire, Havant and the Isle of Wight. Four Hampshire districts overlap with Solent: New Forest, East Hampshire, Test Valley and Winchester. The ONS LEP definitions may differ to definitions being used locally and based on other geographies. This publication is produced by Social and Economic Research (SER), Hampshire County Council. For further information on the bulletin or to subscribe please contact Gareth Henry (Senior Research Officer) E-mail: gareth.henry@hants.gov.uk Telephone:01962 846791

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2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

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12.00%

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

September peaks September peaks