Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24 Carl Luetzelschwab...
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Transcript of Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24 Carl Luetzelschwab...
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
Solar Cycle 23 and Early Predictions for Solar Cycle 24
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
Cycle 23
• Maximum smoothed sunspot number of 121 in early 2000
Cycle 23
0
40
80
120
160
Oct-96
Oct-97
Oct-98
Oct-99
Oct-00
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
smo
oth
ed
su
nsp
ot
nu
mb
er
data to-date predicted decline
we are here
• Secondary peak in late 2001
– Great 6m F2 DX!
• Minimum expected in late 2006 / early 2007
• We’re about a year and a half from solar minimum
solar minimum
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
The High Bands: 10m, 12m, 15m• At solar minimum, F2
openings on 15m to NA and EU will be of short duration
data from ARRL Antenna Book CD
• At solar minimum, no openings on 10m predicted to NA and EU
• If 15m is open, check 12m
Openings from JA on 15m
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
EU SA AF OC NA
nu
mb
er
of
ho
urs
in
th
e d
ay
solar minimum
solar maximum
Openings from JA on 10m
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
EU SA AF OC NA
nu
mb
er
of
ho
urs
in
th
e d
ay
solar minimum
solar maximum
winter month
winter month
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
17m – A Good Place for a Band• Prior to the WARC
band allocations, 20m was the workhorse band for long haul DXing around solar minimum
predictions for JA to indicated area (December around solar minimum)
G 0700-0800 UTC (low probability)
I 0600-0830 UTC
W2 no opening
WØ 2130-2200 UTC (low probability)
W6 2130-0030 UTC
PY 2200-0700 UTC
LU 2030-0900 UTC
HZ 0300-0900 UTC
VK4 2130-1530 UTC
CN 0730-0800 UTC (low probability)
ZS6 2230-1030 UTC
data from W6ELProp
Working Peter I on 17m3Y0X Feb 2006 2100-0930 UTC
• Get on 17m!
• 17m has the long haul characteristics of 15m, but the MUF need not be as high
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
80m and 160m
• Geomagnetic field activity is quietest at and a couple years after solar minimum
# of Days in Month With Ap < 7 vs Smoothed Sunspot NumberCycle 21 decline through Cycle 23 decline
0
40
80
120
160
200
Jan
-82
Jan
-84
Jan
-86
Jan
-88
Jan
-90
Jan
-92
Jan
-94
Jan
-96
Jan
-98
Jan
-00
Jan
-02
Jan
-04
Month, Year
sm
oo
thed
su
nsp
ot
nu
mb
er
0
5
10
15
20
25
# d
ays i
n m
on
th w
ith
Ap
< 7
quietest quietest
data from K9LA
• Most severe impact is to paths that go to high latitudes (those through and near the auroral oval)
– JA to WØ
– JA to W1, W2, W3
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
30m and 40m
• Propagation on 160m and 80m is dependent on absorption
• Propagation on 20m, 17m, 15m, 12m, and 10m is dependent on MUF (maximum usable frequency)
• 30m and 40m are transition bands – not as dependent on absorption and not as dependent on MUF– Of all the bands, they probably change the least over a
solar cycle
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
Things To Do At Solar Minimum
• Watch for north-south paths on the higher bands
• Monitor the Sun for unusual sunspot activity that could help the higher bands
• www.dxlc.com/solar, sec.noaa.gov, spaceweather.com, etc
• Participate in contests• www.ncjweb.com/contestcal.php
• Get on the low bands
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
All Recorded Solar Cycles
• Data is cyclic in nature
• We’ve lived through the highest recorded solar cycles
• It sure looks like we’re headed for an extended period of low solar cycles
our lifetime
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
Cycle 24 Prediction
• As Cycle 23 winds down, we’re seeing more and more predictions from the scientific community
from Schatten
• Most predict that Cycle 24 will be no greater than Cycle 23
• Some are even predicting a maximum smoothed sunspot number of around 75
– Haven’t seen anything that low since Cycle 16 (1923 – 1933)
Ham Fair 2005 - K9LA
Summary
• About a year and a half from solar minimum
• Stay active on the higher bands– Watch for sporadic E and north-south F2 propagation
– Monitor solar activity for unusual sunspot activity
– Participate in contests
• Get your low band station ready– 2006, 2007, and 2008 should be good years