Gwinnett Unified Plan Presentation to: Georgia Planning Association October 2, 2008.

Gwinnett Unified PlanPresentation to:

Georgia Planning Association

October 2, 2008

DRAFT – Not for public distribution

What Dooms Most Comprehensive Plans to Failure?Many, if not most plans treat land use and

transportation separatelyMost are based on a community vision that is

possible, but not plausibleThere is seldom, if ever, a validation of the plan

against the future economic potential of the community


How is Gwinnett’s Unified Plan Different?Combines the Comprehensive Plan,

Comprehensive Transportation Plan, and the (HUD) Consolidated Plan into one planning effort.

Uses a Scenario-based approach to create possible futures, instead of a future vision based on the desires of a select group of people

Forecasts land use based on market realitiesTests the plausibility and fiscal impact of each

Scenario using economic modeling


What Is a Scenario?A plausible Future that results from a series of

Driving Forces and Assumptions about how Current Trends may vary in the future

Obviously, there can be an infinite number of Scenarios or plausible Futures

We chose three:o The Regional Economy Will Declineo The Regional Economy Will Continue as It Haso The Regional Economy Will Improve


Regional Slowdown Scenario

Region’s growth slows Gwinnett gains only 30% more

people & 27% more jobs More transient population – fewer

long-term residents Average income growth slows Limited neighborhood reinvestment

An Unacceptable Outcome


Middle of the Pack Scenario

Region continues to prosper; current trends continue, but

County average income declines Offers little relief from congestion No resources to address

redevelopment Gwinnett gains 47% more people

& 53% more jobs Entire County on public sewer Truly diverse community, no

dominant majority Fairly low density development

Most Likely Future without Intervention - So plan for it also!


International Gateway Scenario US economy strong; Region has

massive job growth Gwinnett gains 76% more people &

106% more jobs Expand transit options International/multicultural segments

of workforce grow High rises at key nodes & mixed-use

development along major roads Redevelopment of older areas


Unified Plan is Based on Rigorous Economic and Fiscal ModelingTo project expansion of County Land use under

varying economic conditions, and To determine the impact of the Plan on the Tax

Digest


Beyond ConsultantsKey Staff Members Included:Glenn Stephens, Director, Planning and DevelopmentBryan Lackey, Deputy DirectorSteven A. Logan, AICP, Director of PlanningNancy Lovingood, AICP, Manager of Long-Range

PlanningPatrick Quinn, Manager of Planning Data ServicesJeff West, Manger of Current PlanningJames Pugsley, Planner IIIDavid Gill, Planner IIIRebecca Peed, Planner II


Technical Advisory Committee A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)

Comprised of:o Impacted County Departments,o Medical Community,o Municipal Representatives,o School System, ando Economic Development Director


Background Trends and Assumptions Include:


Continued but slower growth…

Incomes Continue their Trend

Households in Each Regional Quintile as a Percent of Total Households


…and Gwinnett will continue to diversifyPercent Distribution of Population by Ethnic/Racial Group

Ethnic/Racial information required by HUD for Consolidated Plan submission


Assumptions of the ModelFire, Police, and general gov’t expenditures

directly affected by constituent wealth. Service demand within specific land use type

varies across Gwinnett, but constant across time.

Persons/household same for each resid’l land use type and same across unincorp. Gwinnett.

Income distributions differ across Gwinnett.Revenue contributions differ by land use type.


Management Costs and Revenue Allocations

Focus is on contribution of revenuesand expenditures by land use

ResidentialCommercial

IndustrialFarm

Forest

Total Expenditures 72% 27% 1.4%

Total Revenue 65% 34% 0.8%


Comparison Outcomes (without interventions)WebFit Model Slowdown Scenario

o Surplus in 2030$9 million2% of revenues

Middle Scenario o Deficit in 2030

$7 million0.7% of revenues

Gateway Scenarioo Deficit in 2030

$44 million4.6% of revenues

Enhanced ModelSlowdown Scenario

o Deficit in 2030$358 - $532 million43.7% - 64.9% of revenues

Middle Scenario o Deficit in 2030

$111 - $192 million12% - 21% of revenues

Gateway Scenarioo Deficit in 2030

$63 - $81 million6.5% - 8% of revenues


Enhanced Fiscal ModelBuilds on the existing WebFIT modelDoes not consider capital income or costsAdjusts for level of police and fire services

o Based on supporting evidence and interviews Adjust “poverty” spending

o Poverty spending includesPublic healthPublic welfare & social servicesCommunity development

.-,85

.-,85

.-,985

State Route 316

1

2

3

4

5

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7 8

Gwinnett Study Areas

Includes increased costs of non-poverty spending such as police services, fire services, and general government

Weighted for service need in sub-county areas (Sub-county areas used for analysis only-not used in intervention recommendations)


Beyond EconomicsTransportation ModelingWater and Sewer Modeling


Sewer Impacts-Change in FlowFrom 2003 Master Plan

Regional Slowdown

Middle of the Pack

International Gateway


Intervention Development and Testing (slide 1)Creation of the Planning Advisory Committee

(PAC)o 25 Individuals chosen

to represent various interest groups in the County to represent ethnic diversity of the County

PAC developed interventions or policies to address the various dynamics presented by the Scenarios

Economic/Fiscal and Land Use Models were then calibrated to account for the Interventions


Intervention Development and Testing Focus Groups were used to test the

Interventions among various ethnic groups (Hispanic, Korean, Viet Namese, and African-American)

Public Information Meetings (PIMs) were held to solicit feed-back from the general public.


Major Themes of the Unified PlanMaintain Economic Development and Fiscal

HealthFoster RedevelopmentMaintain Mobility and AccessibilityProvide More Housing ChoiceKeep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place”

DRAFT


Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal Health

DRAFT


Maintain Economic Development and Fiscal HealthPromote Major Mixed-Use DevelopmentsProtect Large, Well-Located Parcels/Areas for OfficeStrategic Placement of SewerRevise Current Millage RatesPromote University Parkway as R & D CorridorEmploy Debt Financing of Major InfrastructureObtain Appropriate Balance of Retail (TDR shown on Housing Map)

DRAFT


Foster Redevelopment

DRAFT


Foster RedevelopmentInstitute a Variety of Redevelopment IncentivesPromote Densification in Specific AreasUse Tax Allocation Districts (TADs)Promoted Shared Infrastructure FacilitiesAllow “corner stores” within specified Med/High

Density Areas

DRAFT


Maintain Mobility and Accessibility

DRAFT


Maintain Mobility and AccessibilityEnhance Signal Coordination and Intelligent Transportation

Systems (ITS)Manage Access on ArterialsEnhance Incident Management (Traffic Control Center)Establish Road Connectivity RequirementCreate Transit-Oriented Development at Appropriate SitesEstablish a More Extensive Transit SystemPursue Strategic Road Widening and New Alignments

DRAFT


Provide More Housing Choice

DRAFT


Provide More Housing ChoiceEstablish and Provide Access to More Executive

HousingPreserve Existing Workforce HousingExpand Maintenance and Rehabilitation

Assistance to Homeowners and Small Businesses

Use Transfer of Development Rights (TDR)

DRAFT


Keep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place”

DRAFT


Keep Gwinnett a “Preferred Place” Improve the Walkability of Gwinnett’s Activity Centers and

Neighborhoods Support and Promote the Expanded Four Year College Invest in After School Programs Enhance Development Aesthetics Provide Venues to Celebrate Growing Cultural Diversity of the

County Expand Presence of “Arts Community” Provide Incentives for Enhanced Openspace/Trails Use Development Regulations to Create Local Parks Acquire Surplus Industrial or Commercial Sites for Open

Space/Recreation

DRAFT


Composite Map

DRAFT


Next Steps

Held public information meetings at 4 sites around county in August.

Final Meeting with PAC was held September 18, 2008PB Revised Draft and Submitted Final Draft

(September ’08)Present Final Draft to Board of Commissioners

(October 7, 2008)Public Hearings (November ’08)

Gwinnett Unified Plan Presentation to: Georgia Planning Association October 2, 2008.

Documents

Transcript of Gwinnett Unified Plan Presentation to: Georgia Planning Association October 2, 2008.