Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09

© 2008 Lane BaileyGarageHomesUSA.com

Gwinnett County Real Gwinnett County Real Estate Market ReportEstate Market Report

FebruaryFebruaryDecember 08 – January 09December 08 – January 09


December Numbers - UpdatedDecember Numbers - Updated

• 1291 New Listings1291 New Listings

• 503 Sold Listings503 Sold Listings

• 520 Listings Pending520 Listings Pending

• Average 93 Days on Market Average 93 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


December Numbers - FinalDecember Numbers - Final

*Listings Pending may have closed in *Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.IS overlap with Sold Listings.


January Numbers - PreliminaryJanuary Numbers - Preliminary

• 1881 New Listings1881 New Listings

• 305 Sold Listings305 Sold Listings

• 564 Listings Pending564 Listings Pending

• Average 101 Days on Market Average 101 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


January Numbers - PreliminaryJanuary Numbers - Preliminary

*While all of these numbers are subject *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 475 closed revision. I am estimating 475 closed sales for January.sales for January.


Days on Market (DoM)Days on Market (DoM)

DoM

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr

7-May

7-Jun

7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

8-Jul 8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

9-Jan

Date

Days


ConclusionsConclusions

• Final for December is 93. Final for December is 93.

• I was looking for the under 90… I was looking for the under 90… preliminary was 89 days. 93 wasn’t great, preliminary was 89 days. 93 wasn’t great,

• For January, preliminary is 101. For January, preliminary is 101.

• I would really like to see numbers stay I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 into February.under 90 into February.


New, Pending & Sold ListingsNew, Pending & Sold Listings

New, Pending, Sold

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr 7-May

7-Jun 7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan 8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr 8-May

8-Jun 8-Jul 8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

9-Jan

Date

Vo

lum

e

New Pending Sold


December Absorption RatesDecember Absorption Rates

7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

• 12 month average: 13.0 months inventory12 month average: 13.0 months inventory




January Absorption RatesJanuary Absorption Rates

7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Dec., and sales County at the end of Dec., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.





ConclusionsConclusions• Dec. final numbers showed sales down 12% Dec. final numbers showed sales down 12%

from 2007. Also important, 7.9% more homes from 2007. Also important, 7.9% more homes Closed in Dec than went under contract in Nov. Closed in Dec than went under contract in Nov. The question would be whether these are sales The question would be whether these are sales that would have closed in Nov or Jan. that would have closed in Nov or Jan.

• December final numbers ended up with a December final numbers ended up with a reasonably strong showing compared to reasonably strong showing compared to preliminaries.preliminaries.

• There is still a long way to go. 6 months of There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.you slice it we are 2-3 times that.


New/Sold RatioNew/Sold Ratio

This ratio compares new listings This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.determining a pricing strategy.



• In Dec., 39% as many homes sold as In Dec., 39% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 10 means that on average, for each 10 homes that were put up for sale, 4 homes that were put up for sale, 4 sold. I thought we would get to 30%.sold. I thought we would get to 30%.

• In Jan., early numbers point to 16% In Jan., early numbers point to 16% (1:6), and I only expect to see that (1:6), and I only expect to see that upgrade to 25% for the final numbers. upgrade to 25% for the final numbers.



New/Sold Ratio

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.

Date

% V

alu

e


ConclusionConclusion

• The weakness of the N/S% shows The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.to Buyers.

• This number tops around 67%This number tops around 67%

• Anything under 33% is very weak.Anything under 33% is very weak.

• I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.for Dec. and a fizzle for January.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

• Dec. - $206,741 Down 14.6% from Dec. - $206,741 Down 14.6% from December 2007December 2007

• Jan. - $178,590 Down 20.2% from Jan. - $178,590 Down 20.2% from January 2008January 2008

• The Sept. numbers showed an average The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back… until January. We’ll it has bounced back… until January. We’ll have to see the finals.have to see the finals.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

Average prices may be volatile, Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular of homes priced in particular ranges.ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.except in the broadest sense.


List Price/Sales Price RatioList Price/Sales Price Ratio• December – 93.02%December – 93.02%• January – 93.80%January – 93.80%• Over the last few years Sale Prices Over the last few years Sale Prices

generally held between 97% and 98.5% generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08.June ’08.

• Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”“Seller Capitulation.”


ConclusionConclusion

• List/Sale Price % gives an List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. indication of Buyer strength.

• It also shows whether Sellers are It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.being realistic with pricing.

• The indications are also very The indications are also very general.general.


Overall Conclusion

• Right now my big concern is “Pendings Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago times what it was just a few months ago (except December).(except December).

• Last year I was calling for a 2Last year I was calling for a 2ndnd Quarter Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might just skip along the bottom for a few just skip along the bottom for a few months.months.


Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions

• September being up in sales was important, but September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was against a weak month last not conclusive. It was against a weak month last year.year.

• I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring.that until next spring.

• There are some great deals, and there are some There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.dogs. The key is finding the right deals.

• Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.sell without a strategy.


Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions

• I think that we will see some weakness in I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.

• I really want to see more of the Pending I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table. Sales make it to the closing table.

• March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season. area market. Spring is the strong season.

• I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.we can see it from here.

Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09

Real Estate

Transcript of Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09