GWEO 2010 Final

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final

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1

T h e W i n d e n e r g y O u T l O O k S c e n a r i O S

O c t O b e r 0 1 0

glOBal Wind energy

OuTlOOk 010

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


c O n T e n T S

T gob W e OtooSos � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 4

rn snaio � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5

Moda snaio � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5

Advand snaio � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5

Gloal snaio suls � � � � � � � � � � � 5

capaiy gowh � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 6

Assumpions on gowh as � � � � � � � � � 6

Snaio suls � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 6

Poduion and sha o gloal liiy supply � � � � 8

Assumpions on uin apaiy… � � � � � � � 8

…and apaiy aos� � � � � � � � � � � � 8

Pojions o liiy

dmand dvlopmns � � � � � � � � � � � 8

Snaio suls � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 9

Invsmn � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 11

employmn � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 13

caon dioxid savings � � � � � � � � � � � � � 13

rsah bakgound � � � � � � � � � � � � � 16

th Gman Aospa cn � � � � � � � � � 16

Snaio akgound � � � � � � � � � � � � 16

engy iny sudy � � � � � � � � � � � 16

Wold map � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 18

ro so sts � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0

Aia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1

china � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3

easn euop/euasia � � � � � � � � � � � � � 7

India � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 30

Lain Amia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3

Middl eas � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 35

Non-OecD Asia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 37

OecD euop � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 40

OecD Noh Amia � � � � � � � � � � � � � 44

OecD Pai � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 47

T wo’s w sos � � � � � � � � � � � � 50

itt w ow tott sstms � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 54

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


Sv Sawy

Secretary General –Global Wind Energy Council

Svn tsk

Director, Renewable Energy Greenpeace International

Klaus rav

Chairman –Global Wind Energy Council

3

F O r e W O r d

th Gloal Wind engy counil and Gnpa Innaional a plasd o psn his 3d diion o h Global

Wind Energy Outlook o 010, h susso o h Wind Force 10 and Wind Force 12 sis whih gan in 1999.

Wha w on onsidd wild-yd pognoss o a nw hnology hav om o ognisd as an impo-

an planning ool o h uu o h pow so.

Gloal wind pow maks hav n o h pas sval yas dominad y h majo maks: euop, Noh

Amia (US), and Asia (china and India). Whil hs h maks sill aound o 86% o oal insalld a-

paiy a h nd o 009, h a signs ha his may hanging. emging maks in Lain Amia, Asia and

Aia a ahing iial mass and w may supisd o s on o mo o hm is o hallng h h

main maks in h oming yas.

commial wind ams now opa in los o 80 ounis, and psn many ns o oh dvlopd and

dvloping ounis: inasd ngy suiy; sal pow pis; onomi dvlopmn whih oh aas

invsmn and as jos; dud dpndn on impod uls; impovd ai qualiy; and, o ous, cO2

missions duions. eah o hs aos is a div in din masu in din loaions, u in an inas-

ing num o ounis hy omin o mak wind pow h gnaion hnology o hoi.

Wha ol will wind pow play in h oming wo dads and yond? How muh o h gloal liiy

dmand will i ov? How muh cO2 will savd y wind pow in 00 and in 030? And wha will i do o

ngy indpndn and onomi gowh? ths a h qusions ha h GWeO sks o answ. W psn

h snaios o h dvlopmn o h so h, and play hm o agains wo snaios o liiy

dmand dvlopmn o om up wih a ang o possil uus o h so.

Ou answs o hs qusions havn’ hangd damaially sin h 008 diion, alhough h poman o

h indusy in h las wo yas akd ahad o ou Advand snaio. Wha has hangd is h IeA’s rn

Snaio. In 006, h rn snaio pojd 31 GW o 00 – now ha’s up o 415 GW; and o 030,

h rn snaio pojd 415 GW – now ha’s up o 573GW. O ous, w sill hink hos nums

a vy low, u w w vy plasd o s ha h 010 diion o h IeA’s puliaion Projected Costs o

Generating Electricity has onsho wind pow plaing oil o join oal, gas and nula as h main hnologis

whih will omp o mak sha in h pow so o h uu.

bu ha uu mains unain. th gloal lima ngoiaions hav a las mpoaily gound o a hal a

h wold’s govnmns aild o om up wih a susso ay o h Kyoo Poool in copnhagn las ya.

In h asn o a la innaional amwok and wihou a la posp o a gloal pi on aon mis-

sions, ou ous has o on h naional and gional ngy poliis whih div loal dvlopmn. to quo h

US Psidn, ‘th naion ha lads h wold in aing nw sous o lan ngy will h naion ha lads

h 1s-nuy gloal onomy.’ An inasing num o govnmns aound h wold sm o hav akn

ha mssag o ha.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


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The glOBal Wind energy OuTlOOk

ScenariOS

© EDP Renovavies

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


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T h e g l O B a l W i n d e n e r g y O u T l O O k S c e n a r i O S

th Gloal Wind engy Oulook snaios xamin h

uu ponial o wind pow up o 00, 030 and 050.

Dvlopmn o hs snaios was aid ou as ollao-

aion wn h Gloal Wind engy counil (GWec),

Gnpa Innaional and h Gman Aospa cn

(DLr). Pojions on h uu o wind ngy dvlopmn

hav oniud o a lag sudy o gloal susainal n-

gy pahways up o 050 ondud y DLr o Gnpa

and h euopan rnwal engy counil (erec)1.

Wha will h gowh o wind pow look lik? th a

many vaials ha will dmin is pah, and w apsning h din snaios o ah gion, and

o h wold as a whol, looking s owads 00, and

hn onwads o 030 (s annx al o mo long-m

pojions up o 050). eah snaio sas wih a ang o

assumpions whih will infun xpaions o h wind

ngy indusy’s dvlopmn.

reFerence ScenariO

th mos onsvaiv ‘rn’ snaio is asd on h

pojions in h 009 Wold engy Oulook om h

Innaional engy Agny (IeA). this aks ino aoun

only xising poliis and masus, u inluds assumpions

suh as oninuing liiy and gas mak om, h

lialisaion o oss-od ngy ad and n poliis

aimd a omaing polluion. th IeA’s gus only go ou

o h ya 030, u asd on hs assumpions, DLr has

xapolad oh h ovall rn snaio and h

gowh o wind pow up o 050.

MOderaTe ScenariO

th ‘Moda’ snaio aks ino aoun all poliy masus

o suppo nwal ngy ih alady nad o in h

planning sags aound h wold. I also assums ha h

ags s y many ounis o ih nwals, missions

duions and/o wind ngy a sussully implmnd,

as wll as h mods implmnaion o nw poliis aimd a

polluion and aon mission duion, and inasd ngy

suiy. I also aks ino aoun nvionmnal and ngy

poliy masus ha w pa o many govnmn onomi

simulus pakags implmnd sin la 008.

Up o 014 h gus o insalld apaiy a los o -

ing oass han snaios. this is aus h daa availal

om h wind ngy indusy shows h xpd gowh o

woldwid maks ov h nx v yas asd on ods

o wind uins alady ommid, xising lgislaiv

pogamms and ags, as wll as known manuauing

apaiy xpansion plans. A 014 h pan o dvlop-

mn is mo diul o aniipa.

advanced ScenariO

th mos amiious snaio, h ‘Advand’ vsion xam-

ins h xn o whih his indusy ould gow in a sas ‘wind ngy vision’. th assumpion h is a la and

unamiguous ommimn o nwal ngy as p h

indusy’s ommndaions, along wih h poliial will n-

ssay o ay i owad.

Whil again, h dvlopmn a 014 is mo diul

o pdi, his snaio is dsignd o show wha h wind

ngy so ould ahiv i i w givn h poliial om-

mimn and nouagmn i dsvs in ligh o h win

iss o ngy suiy and gloal lima hang.

glOBal ScenariO reSulTS

th GWeO snaios show ha vn wih h oninuaion

o un poliy masus o nouag wind pow dvl-

opmn and sious govnmn os o m xising

ags, h suling ‘Moda snaio’ gowh will pu

h dvlopmn o wind pow on a damaially din

ajoy om h IeA-asd ‘rn’ snaio.

Wih h poliial will o ully xploi ah ouny’s windsou and ap h aompanying onomi, nvion-

mnal and ngy suiy ns, h ‘Advand snaio’

ould ahd, whih would s susanial wind pow

gowh in many gions o h wold. Wind pow would hn

insumnal in ahiving a gnuin ngy voluion,

puing h wold on h pah o a susainal ngy uu.

W a now a a ossoads o making hs disions, whih

will dmin h uu o ou ngy sysms as wll as, o

a ga xn, h uu o ou plan.

1 See http://www.energyblueprint.ino

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


6


ct owt

aSSuMpTiOnS On grOWTh raTeS

Mak gowh as usd in hs snaios a asd on a

mixu o hisoial gus, un poliis and nds, nw

mak dvlopmn, disussions o uu ngy poliy and

oh aos. Whil umulaiv annual gowh as o mo

han 5% p ya, as nvisagd in h ‘Advand’ snaio,

a unusually high in mos indusis ha manuau havy

quipmn, h wind indusy has onsisnly xpind

muh high gowh. In a, h gloal wind maks hav

gown y an avag 8% p ya in ms o oal insalldapaiy duing h las dad.

In h GWeO Advand snaio, h avag annual gowh

o umulaiv insalld apaiy is assumd o sa o a

7% in 010, and hn gadually dlin o 9% y 00.

by 030, hy will hav doppd o 4%. Gowh as as

aniipad y h IeA in h rn snaio sa a 17%

in 010, dop o 3% y 015, sailising a ha lvl. th

gowh as o h Moda snaio ang om 6% in

010 o 9% in 00 and o 5% in 030.

I should also on in mind ha whil gowh as vn-

ually dlin o singl gus aoss h ang o snaios,

h lvl o wind pow apaiy nvisagd in 0-40 yas’

im mans ha vn small pnag gowh as will y

hn ansla ino lag gus in ms o annually insalld

mgawas, spially in h advand and Moda s-

naios.

ScenariO reSulTS

th IeA’s r so suggss – onay o h la

upwads nd w hav winssd in h pas – ha gowh

as o wind pow would das susanially in h

oming yas, and ha 010 would s an addiion o only

6.8 GW, whih would psn a das o h annual

mak y 30% in 010 (ompad o an inas o 41%

in 009). th annual mak would hn oninu o shink

unil 015 and only ov o ah is 009 lvls again jus

o 030. th umulaiv wind pow apaiy aod-

007 008 009 010 015 00 030

r [MW] 93,864 10,97 158,505 185,58 95,783 415,433 57,733

[tWh] 06 63 347 406 75 1,019 1,405

Mot [MW] 93,864 10,97 158,505 198,717 460,364 83,51 1,777,550

[tWh] 06 63 347 435 1,19 ,041 4,360

a [MW] 93,864 10,97 158,505 01,657 533,33 1,071,415 ,341,984

[tWh] 06 63 347 44 1,308 ,68 5,49

glOBal cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Reference Moderate Advanced[GW]

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


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regiOnal BreakdOWn: MOderaTe ScenariO

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2030

2020

2010

2009

[gW] Oecdeo

Oecdnot

am

c i Oecdpf

noOecd

as

esteo/es

ltam

a Mest

009 76 39 6 11 5 0,5 0,5 1 0,8 0,1

010 87 50 40 13 6 0,7 0,9 1 0,1

00 51 0 00 46 37 4 1 8 1

030 447 407 404 108 81 10 71 7 4 5

regiOnal BreakdOWn: reFerence ScenariO

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2030

2020

2010

2009

[gW] Oecdeo

Oecdnot

am

c i Oecdpf

noOecd

as

esteo/es

ltam

a Mest

009 76 39 6 11 5 0,5 0,4 1 0,8 0,1

010 86 45 33 1 5 0,6 0,9 1 0,1

00 184 106 70 4 11 4 6 5 3

030 34 141 95 31 19 16 13 11 8 6

regiOnal BreakdOWn: advanced ScenariO

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2030

2020

2010

2009

[gW] Oecdeo

Oecdnot

am

c i Oecdpf

noOecd

as

esteo/es

ltam

a Mest

009 76 39 6 11 5 0,5 0,5 1 0,8 0,1010 87 50 41 13 6 0,7 0,9 1 0,1

00 79 79 50 65 48 55 16 37 19 11

030 515 6 513 161 109 140 87 93 67 34

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


9

puing his ino h onx o gloal liiy dmand

is vn mo lvan, as i will giv us an ida o h sha

ha wind pow an hav in saisying h wold’s inasing

hung o pow. th h GWeO snaios a ho

s agains wo pojions o h uu gowh o li-

iy dmand: a ‘rn Dmand Pojion’; and an ‘engy

einy Dmand Pojion’.

r m oto

th mo onsvaiv o h wo gloal liiy dmand

pojions is again asd on daa om h IeA’s 009 Wold

engy Oulook, inluding is assumpions on populaion and

GDP gowh, xapolad owads o 050. I aks aoun

o poliis and masus ha w nad o adopd y

mid-009, u dos no inlud possil o likly uu

poliy iniiaivs.

th IeA’s simaion is ha in h asn o nw gov-

nmn poliis, h wold’s liiy dmand will isinxoaly. Gloal dmand would ho almos doul

om h aslin 15,000 tWh in 005 o ah naly

9,000 tWh y 030.

e f m oto

th IeA’s xpaions on ising ngy dmand a hn s

agains h ouom o a sudy on h ponial o

ngy iny savings dvlopd y DLr and h eoys

onsulany. this sudy dsis an amiious dvlopmn

pah o h xploiaion o ngy iny masus, asd

on un s pai hnologis, mging hnolo-

gis ha a unly und dvlopmn and oninuous

innovaion in h ld o ngy iny.

In aliy, o ous, onsains in ms o oss and oh

ais, suh as sisan o plaing xising quipmn

and apial sok o h nd o is usul li, will pvn

his ‘hnial’ ngy iny ponial o ully alisd.

In od o f hs limiaions, w hav usd h mo

moda engy einy dmand pojion om h

sudy, whih is asd on implmning aound 80% o h

hnial ponial.

this snaio suls in gloal dmand inasing y muh

lss han und h rn pojion, i.., o 5,000 tWh

in 030, whih is 14% (o 4,000 tWh) low.

ScenariO reSulTS

On h asis o hs ngy dmand pojions, h sha

o wind pow in h gloal liiy dmand an alu-

lad.

In h rn snaio, wind pow would podu

1,000 tWh o liiy y 00, a ling om h si-

mad 350 tWh podud y h 158.5 GW o wind apaiy

in 009. Dpnding on h dmand pojion, his would

ov wn 4.5-4.8% o h wold’s liiy nds,

aou h sam sha as is unly ahivd in euop. by

030, 1,400 tWh would aoun o 4.9% o 5.6%. Ovall,

h oniuion o wind pow o h gloal liiy sup-

ply would main small.

2 www.energyblueprint.ino/1211.0.html

Maanhón wind am, Guadalajaa, Spain© Wind Power Works

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


10

Und h Moda snaio, h siuaion would look

onsidaly din. In 00, wind ngy would po-

du ,000 tWh, wi as muh as und h rn

snaio, and his would m 8.9%-9.5% o h wold’s

pow dmand – alady a susanial oniuion. by 030,

4,300 tWh would podud y wind ngy, aking h

sha up o 15%-17.5%, dpnding on how dmand dvlops

ov h nx wo dads.

th Advand snaio pains a piu in whih wind pow

would om a nal play in gloal pow gnaion.

by 00, h wold’s omind insalld wind f would

podu ,600 tWh o lan pow, whih would aoun

o 11.5%-1.3% o gloal liiy supply. this would is

o 5,400 tWh y 030 and a sha o 18.8%-1.8% – a h

o h wold’s pow nds ould hus saisd y wind

pow alon.

007 010 00 030

r so

rn dmand pojion 1.1% .3% 4.5% 4.9%

engy iny dmand pojion 1.1% .3% 4.8% 5.6%

Mot so

rn dmand pojion 1.1% .4% 8.9% 15.1%


a so

rn dmand pojion 1.1% .5% 11.5% 18.8%


Wind pOWer Share OF glOBal elecTriciTy deMand

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2007 2010 2020 2030

Reference scenario

Moderate scenario

Advanced scenario

Reference demand projection

Energy efficiency demand projection





co bil wind am, Spain© EDP Renovavies

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


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istmt

Poduing inasd volums o wind-gnad liiy

will aa onsidal lvls o invsmn.

th apial os o poduing wind uins has alln sadily

ov h pas 0 yas as uin dsign has n lagly on-

nad on h h-ladd upwind modl wih vaial

spd and pih lad gulaion. Manuauing hniqus

hav n opimisd, and mass poduion and auomaion

hav suld in onomis o sal.

th os dvlopmns in h GWeO snaios a asd

on h assumpion o a gadually dasing apial os

p kilowa o insalld apaiy, du o inasd dploy-

mn, whih alas hnologial pogss and inass

onomis o sal in manuauing, whih in un suls

in low quipmn oss. Sin his pogss will as

h mo unis a podud, h os o wind uins is

cOSTS and capaciTieS

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2015 2020

Reference

Moderate

Advanced

Reference

Moderate

Advanced

Annual Installation [ GW ]Cost € / kW

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2007 2030

inveSTMenT and eMplOyMenT

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

rf

Annual Installation [MW] 19,865 28,700 38,343 26,735 20,887 25,712 41,219

cost [€ / kW] 1,300 1,350 1,350 1,327 1,276 1,240 1,216

Invstmnt [€ million /yar] 25,824 38,745 51,763 35,507 26,649 31,894 50,136employmnt [job yar] 329,232 470,559 627,927 462,982 411,801 524,027 809,006

Mot


cost [€ / kW] 1,300 1,350 1,350 1,329 1,258 1,208 1,116

Invstmnt [€ million /yar] 25,824 38,745 51,763 53,459 79,109 106,504 165,691

employmnt [job yar] 329,232 470,559 627,927 629,137 1,033,721 1,422,874 2,372,911

a


cost [€ / kW] 1,300 1,350 1,350 1,328 1,245 1,172 1,093Invstmnt [€ million /yar] 25,824 38,745 51,763 57,450 109,072 140,762 202,600

employmnt [ job yar] 329,232 470,559 627,927 672,827 1,404,546 1,918,530 3,004,081

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


1

pojd o das mos quikly in h Advand and las

quikly in h rn snaio.

capial oss p kilowa o insalld apaiy a akn as an

avag o €1,350 p kW in 009. In h rn snaio,

hs oss all gadually o €1,40 p kW y 00 and

€1,16 y 030. In h Advand snaio, oss will all mo

apidly o ah €1,093 p kW in 030.3

Givn h high up-on oss o wind pow pojs, lag

invsmns o pdominanly piva u also puli unds

a xpd o fow ino h gowing wind pow maks.

this invsmn will dily n gional dvlopmn

y aing jos in manuauing, anspoaion, onsu-

ion, poj dvlopmn and opaion and mainnan;

poviding nw vnu sous o loal landowns suh as

a ams o ommuniis; and inasing h loal ax as.

th invsmn valu in h uu wind ngy mak nvis-

agd in his snaio has n assssd on an annual asis.

In h rn snaio h annual valu o gloal invs-

mn in wind pow quipmn dops y naly hal om

€51.8 illion in 009 o only €6.6 illion y 015, and hn

iss again o ah un lvls a 030.

In h Moda snaio h annual valu o gloal invs-

mn in h wind pow indusy iss om €53.5 illion in

010 o €79.1 illion in 015 and €106.5 illion y 00.Invsmn iss apidly duing h nx 10 yas o ah

€166 illion y 030.

In h Advand snaio h annual valu o gloal invs-

mn iss apidly om €57.5 illion in 010 o €109.1 illion

y 015, and paks a €0 illion in 030.

Alhough hs gus a lag, hy should sn in h

onx o h oal lvl o invsmn in h gloal pow

indusy. Duing h 1990s, o xampl, annual invsmn

in h pow so was unning a som €158–186 illion

ah ya.

3 All fgures are in 2009 €

Poduion Yinhuan, china© Nordex

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


13


emomt

th mploymn o his snaio is a uial ao o

wigh alongsid is oh oss and ns. High unmploy-

mn as oninu o a dain on h soial sysms o

many ounis in h wold. Any hnology whih dmands

a susanial lvl o oh skilld and unskilld laou is

ho o onsidal onomi impoan, and likly o

au songly in any poliial dision-making ov di-

n ngy opions.

A num o assssmns o h mploymn s o wind

pow hav n aid ou in Gmany, Dnmak, Spainand h Nhlands. th assumpion mad in his snaio is

ha o vy mgawa o nw apaiy, h annual mak

o wind ngy will, as o 010, a mploymn a h

a o 14 jos (pson yas) p MW insalld in ha ya

hough manuau, omponn supply, wind am dvlop-

mn, insallaion, anspoaion, as wll as indi mploy-

mn. As poduion posss a opimisd, his lvl will

das, alling o 13 jos p MW y 00 and 1 y 05.

In addiion, mploymn in gula opaions and main-

nan wok a wind ams will oniu a uh 0.33 jos

o vy mgawa o umulaiv apaiy.

Und hs assumpions, mo han 600,000 popl would

hav n mployd in h wind ngy so in 009. Un-

d h rn snaio, his gu would das o jus

463,000 jos in 010, hn slowly ov o ah 54,000

jos y 00 and 809,000 y 030.

In h Moda snaio, h wind so would om a

powul jos moo, poviding ‘gn olla’ mploymn o

mo han a million popl y 015 and 1.3 million v yasla. by 030 h wind indusy would mploy .6 million

popl woldwid.

th Advand snaio would s h mploymn lvl is

apidly o 1.4 million as aly as 015, almos ahing los

o million jos in wind ngy y 00 and going yond

3 million y 030.

cbo o ss

A rdution in th lvls o arbon dioxid bing mittd into

th global atmosphr is th most important nvironmntal

bnft rom wind powr gnration. carbon dioxid is th gas

largly rsponsibl or xarbating th grnhous t, lad-

ing to th disastrous onsquns o global limat hang.

Modn wind hnology has an xmly good ngy

alan. th cO2 missions lad o h manuau,

insallaion and sviing ov h avag 0 ya liyl o

a wind uin a gnally ‘paid ak’ a h s h o

nin monhs o opaion. byond his, wind pow podus

no cO2 missions.

th n o oaind om aon dioxid duions is

dpndn on h ul, o uls, ha wind pow displas; o

xampl, missions om oal o a kilowa hou o li-

iy podud a high han om naual gas. calulaions

y h Wold engy counil show a ang o aon dioxid

mission lvls o din ossil uls. Woking on h as-

sumpion ha oal and gas will sill aoun o h majoiyo liiy gnaion in 0 yas’ im – wih a oninud

nd o gas o ak ov om oal – i maks sns o us

a gu o 600 kg/MWh as an avag valu o h aon

dioxid duion o oaind om wind gnaion. Al-

hough his will vay om gion o gion, w hav assumd

hs sam avag gloal cO duion valu o h

gional snaios as oulind low

this assumpion is uh jusid y h a ha mo han

hal o h umulaiv wind gnaion apaiy xpd y

00 will insalld in h OecD gions (Noh Amia,

euop and h Pai), wh h is a song nd o a

shi om oal o gas o liiy gnaion. Ousid o

Zaaana wind am, egyp© Wind Power Works

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14


h OecD, h cO2 duion will gnally high du o

h widspad us o oal-d pow saions.

th xpd annual cO2 savings om wind ngy und

h rn snaio is 43 million onns in 010, passing

500 million onns p ya wn 015 and 00, gadu-

ally liming o 843 million onns p ya o cO2 savings

y 030. this is small ompad wih h 18.7 illion onns

o cO2 ha h IeA xps h gloal pow so will mi

vy ya y 030.

Und h Moda snaio, wind pow would sav h

mission o a mo signian 1. illion ons o cO2 p yay 00, ising o .6 illion onns y 030.

Und h Advand snaio, y 00 1.6 illion ons o cO2

would savd vy ya, and his would gow o a onsid-

al 3.3 illion onns p ya y 030– hy saving a

sixh o all cO2 mid y h liiy so ompad

wih h IeA’s pojions.

Howv, i is h umulaiv o hs yaly cO2

savings ha ally mas o h amosph.

th slow gowh o wind ngy as nvisagd y h r-

n snaio would man ha y 00, wind pow would

hav savd jus 5.5 illion onns o cO2 gloally, and his

would is o 13 illion onns y 030.

A muh as gowh suh as h on oulind in h Mod-

a snaio would susanially inas h umulaiv cO2

savings, y ahiving duions o 8.5 illion onns y 00

and 8 illion onns y 030. Und h Advand snaio,

hs savings would as high as 10 illion onns y 00and 34 illion onns o cO2 y 030.

Wha will mak a signian din o h lima is h

spd a whih us a mad. So i is no only h oal mis-

sions duions ha a o valu, u i is h iming o hm.

Wind pow’s salailiy and spd o dploymn is a iial

pa o any plan o g gloal missions o pak and gin o

dlin y 00, whih is ssnial o pu us on a pahway

wh gloal man mpau is an kp low °c,

h mos posiiv pa o h agmn in h copnhagn

Aod.

annual and cuMulaTive cO2 eMiSSiOnS reducTiOnS

r

Ya

cO2 duion(wih 600gcO2/kWh)

[annual mil cO2]Avoidd cO2 sin 003

[umulaiv mil cO2]

009 08 77

010 43 1,016

015 435 ,834

00 611 5,539

05 77 8,944

030 843 1,98

035 960 17,495

040 1,155 3,017

045 1,7 9,143

050 1,387 35,854

Mot

Ya



[umulaiv mil cO2]

009 08 77

010 61 1,033

015 678 3,550

00 1,5 8,510

05 1,875 16,556

030 ,616 8,104

035 3,348 43,415

040 4,3 63,559

045 5,066 87,394

050 5,838 115,06

a

Ya



[umulaiv mil cO2]

009 08 77

010 65 1,037

015 785 3,81

00 1,577 9,953

05 ,83 19,667

030 3,57 34,07

035 4,094 5,96

040 5,084 77,001

045 5,686 104,56

050 6,4 134,363

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


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annual cO2 eMiSSiOnS reducTiOnS

Reference[mil tCO] Moderate Advanced

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

20302025202020152010200920082007

cuMulaTive cO2 eMiSSiOnS reducTiOnS

[mil tCO] Reference Moderate Advanced

203020252020201520102009200820070

20,000

40,000

Wind am in Spain© Alstom

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


16

rs Bo

The gerMan aerOSpace cenTre

th Gman Aospa cn (DLr) is h lags ngin-

ing sah oganisaion in Gmany. Among is spiali-

is a h dvlopmn o sola hmal pow saion

hnologis, h uilisaion o low and high mpau ul

lls, paiulaly o liiy gnaion, and sah ino

h dvlopmn o high iny gas and sam uin

pow plans.

th Insiu o thnial thmodynamis a DLr (DLr-Itt) is aiv in h ld o nwal ngy sah and

hnology dvlopmn o in and low mission

ngy onvsion and uilisaion. Woking in o-opaion

wih oh DLr insius, indusy and univsiis, sah

is ousd on solving ky polms in lohmial ngy

hnology and sola ngy onvsion. this nompasss

appliaion oind sah, dvlopmn o laoaoy and

pooyp modls as wll as dsign and opaion o dmon-

saion plans. Sysm analysis and hnology assssmn

suppos h ppaaion o sagi disions in h ld o

sah and ngy poliy.

Wihin DLr-Itt, h Sysm Analysis and thnology Assss-

mn Division has long m xpin in h assssmn o

nwal ngy hnologis. Is main sah aiviis

a in h ld o hno-onomi uilisaion and sysm

analysis, lading o h dvlopmn o sagis o h

mak inoduion and dissminaion o nw hnologis,

mainly in h ngy and anspo sos.

ScenariO BackgrOund

DLr was ommissiond y h euopan rnwal engy

counil and Gnpa Innaional o ondu h sudy

‘engy [r]voluion: A susainal gloal ngy oulook’,

dvloping gloal susainal ngy pahways up o 0501.

this sudy, s pulishd in Januay 007 and h 3d diion

pulishd in Jun 010, lays ou ngy snaios wih mis-

sions ha a signianly low han un lvls.

Pa o h sudy xamind h uu ponial o nwal

ngy sous; ogh wih inpu om h wind ngy

indusy and analysis o gional pojions o wind pow

aound h wold, his oms h asis o h Gloal Wind

engy Oulook snaio.

th ngy supply snaios adopd in his po, whih

oh xnd yond and nhan pojions y h Inna-

ional engy Agny, hav n alulad using h MeSAP/

PlaN simulaion modl y DLr oving all 10 wold

gions. this modl has hn n dvlopd in oopa-

ion wih eoys onsulany o ak ino aoun h uu

ponial o ngy iny masus.

energy eFFiciency STudy

th aim o h eoys sudy was o dvlop low ngy

dmand snaios o h piod 007 o 050 on a soal

lvl o h IeA gions as dnd in h Wold engy Ou-

look po sis. engy dmand was spli up ino liiy

and uls. th sos whih w akn ino aoun w

indusy, anspo and oh onsums, inluding hous-

holds and svis.

th eoys sudy nvisags an amiious ovall dvlop-

mn pah o h xploiaion o ngy iny ponial,

ousd on un s pai as wll as hnologis

availal in h uu, and assuming oninuous innovaion

in h ld. th sul is ha woldwid nal ngy dmand

is dud y 35% in 050 in ompaison o h rn

snaio. engy savings a aily qually disiud ov h

h sos. th mos impoan ngy saving opions a

h implmnaion o mo in passng and igh

anspo, impovd ha insulaion and uilding dsign, andhnial iny sandads o onsum appliaions,

sand-y mods and It quipmn.

Whil h eoys sudy dvlops wo ngy iny

snaios, only h mo moda o hs has n usd in

his po.


1 Krewitt W, Simon S, Graus W, Teske S, Zervos A, Schaeer O, ‘The 2 degrees C scenario- A sustainable world energy perspective’; Energy Policy, Vol.35, No.10, 4969-4980, 2007;and www.energyblueprint.ino

2 www.energyblueprint.ino/1211.0.html

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T h e g W e O S c e n a r i O S – W i n d p O W e r d e v e l O p M e n T u p T O 0 5 0

Xioa Yan Kou wind am, rudong, china© Wind Power Works

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T h e g W e O S c e n a r i O S – W i n d p O W e r d e v e l O p M e n T u p T O 0 5 0

Middle eaST

Tot t MW

009 010 00 030

r so 10 11 ,07 5,987

Mot so 10 119 ,487 4,791

a so 10 13 10,53 34,159

india

Tot t MW

009 010 00 030

r so 10,96 1,76 4,06 30,56

Mot so 10,96 1,69 46,104 108,079

a so 10,96 1,833 65,181 160,741

eaSTern eurOpe/euraSia

Tot t MW

009 010 00 030r so 484 869 5,869 13,369

Mot so 484 910 1,083 71,011

a so 484 938 15,784 86,815

china

Tot t MW

009 010 00 030r so 5,805 3,805 70,305 95,305

Mot so 5,805 39,608 00,06 403,741

a so 5,805 41,030 50,397 513,46

nOn-Oecd aSia

Tot t MW

009 010 00 030

r so 475 575 4,35 15,575

Mot so 475 709 4,04 10,313

a so 475 709 54,813 140,46

Oecd paciFic

Tot t MW

009 010 00 030

r so 4,613 5,318 10,568 18,568

Mot so 4,613 5,740 37,59 81,159

a so 4,613 5,870 47,876 109,367

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regiOnal ScenariO reSulTS

© EDP Renovavies

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


21

a

Aou a qua o h wold’s populaion has no ass o

liiy, and h polm is spially au in pi-uan

and ual aas in Su-Sahaan Aia. In many Aian oun-

is, h liiy ha is availal is likly o gnad

y mans o disl gnaos o oh small-sal plan, vy

on using xpnsiv impod ul. Mo small gnaos

kp individual usinsss, hospials and housholds unning.

th high os o lying on impod uls has a ga impa

on som Aian ounis’ onomis, and som o hm

spnd a onsidal sha o hi sa oign xhang

svs on ngy impos.

Loal, naional o gional gids – wh hy do xis – a

hallngd y h inasing dmand om onsum quip-

mn suh as igaos, lighing, moil phons, tVs and

ompus; and ouags a on a gula au. In many

ounis, i sms ha h povision o a sal supply o

li pow is ih no a govnmn pioiy, o is a

pioiy ha onfis wih oh pssing issus suh as povi-

sion o lan wa, duaion and halh a.

Lag-sal pow poduion in Aia, wh i xiss, is lik-

ly o man lag hydo (as ound in egyp) o h oal-asd

gnaion ha haaizs Souh Aia’s pow sysm.

Givn Aia’s vas land mass and laivly low populaion

dnsiy, i sms likly ha a oad mix o dnalizd

hnologis will hav h fxiiliy o m h nds o

many o is ounis. Wind pow, aus o is salailiy,

an play a ky ol in oh dnalizd and in nalizd

sysms.

Aia’s wind sou is s aound h oass and in hasn highlands, and i is in Mdianan Noh Aia

ha wind pow has n dvlopd a sal. this, oo, is

wh un naional poliis a s o gow h so

uh. A h nd o 009, aou 96% o h oninn’s

oal wind insallaions o 763 MW w o ound in egyp

(430 MW), Mooo (53 MW) and tunisia (54 MW).

egypT

In Fuay 008, egyp’s Supm counil o engy ap-

povd a plan o podu 0% o is li pow om

nwal sous y 00. this ag inluds a 1%

oniuion om wind ngy, whih anslas ino mo

han 7,00 MW o gid-onnd wind ams. egyp’s s

dvlopd wind gion so a is h Zaaana disi, wih

som 430 MW ha hav n pu in pla duing n

yas, and a uh 10 MW du o om onlin y h nd

o 010. th a also plans o onsu ou 50 MW

plans on h rd Sa oas a Gaal l-Zi. tnding aks

pla in Spm 010, opn o n ompanis sholisd

om ali appliaions, and h poj is xpd o sa

opaions in 014 o 015. Ov 7 GW o wind pow ould

ponially dvlopd y 00 in his aa o egyp alon.

MOrOccO

Mooo has xlln wind sous along naly is ni

oaslin, as wll as inland na h Alas Mounains.1

th Mooan govnmn has s a ag o aising h

oniuion o nwal ngy o 18% o h naional

liiy onsumpion (up om 7.9%) y 01. Wind pow

is poisd o play a ky ol o ahing his goal wih a a-

gd 1,500 MW o apaiy, up om h xising 53 MW a

h nd o 009. this ag is likly o m hough oh

a 300 MW gid onnd wind am unly plannd in

taaya, and plans y indusial ompanis o insall aound

1,000 MW o wind ngy o hi own onsumpion.

1 For wind resource map o Morocco, please see http://www.wind-energie.de/fleadmin/dokumente/Themen_A-Z/Entwicklungsdialog/GTZ_terna-haddouch-2006.pd (slide 15)

Zaaana wind am, egyp© Wind Power Works

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r e g i O n a l S c e n a r i O r e S u l T S

iaion and ngy indpndn, u also is onomis;

mo han €. illion would invsd in wind pow vy

ya y 00, and his would inas o 3.5 illion annually

y 030; and 30,000-50,000 jos would ad.

th Advand snaio assums ha vn mo o will

akn o xploi Aia’s wind sous. I shows how, y

00, los o 0 GW o wind pow apaiy ould podu

47 tWh o liiy, gowing o 165 tWh y 030. Wind

pow would hn al o play a ky ol in dvloping a

susainal ngy uu, y displaing 8 million ons ocO2 vy ya y 00 and los o a illion ons y 030,

laning h ai and inasing ngy suiy a h sam

im.

eonomially, oo, his dvlopmn ould hav a susanial

impa in Aia’s wind ih naions. Wih annual invsmns

in h od o €4.6 illion in 00 and €5.6 illion in 030,

wind pow ould gow o om a onsidal indusy

in Aia. th dvlopmn o loal manuauing ailiis

would povid jos o 60,000-80,000 popl aoss h

oninn, and h avoidd oss o impod ul would hav

a vy posiiv on hs naions’ oign xhang.

c

th poman o china’s wind so in 009 managd o

supis vn many opimiss in h indusy. china addd

a od-aking 13.8 GW o nw wind pow apaiy

(ompad wih 6.3 GW h pvious ya), making i a wold

lad in ms o nw insallaions in 009. Noaly, 009

also saw chins uin manuaus ak a qua sha

o h gloal mak, onming h solidiy o h hom-

gown indusy.

china’s xpansion in h wind indusy is woh viwing

agains h akgound o his gowing onomy’s oadli pow so, wh havy invsmns a also

ing mad in nw oal, gas, hydo and nula gnaion.

china’s oal pow gnaing apaiy gw y som 11% in

008 (009 gu no y availal), whil wind pow mo

han dould in ha ya. In 009 alon, mo wind pow

was addd o h chins pow gid han h oal amoun

o opaing nula pow saions (13.8 vs 9 GW). Howv,

dspi his mndous gowh, wind pow sill only ovs

lss han 1% o china’s oal liiy dmand.

pOlicy

th gowh xpind y china’s wind indusy ov h

pas v yas has n divn mainly y naional nwal

ngy poliis, as wll as vy aiv paiipaion in h

UNFccc’s clan Dvlopmn Mhanism.

th sa o h govnmn’s aiv ngagmn in nw-

al ngy dvlopmn das ak o 004, whn h

naion was daing is s rnwal engy Law. this law,

whih was passd in 005 and nd ino o in 006,makd a shi in ngy poliy y quiing gid ompanis

o puhas all h liiy ha is podud om nw-

al sous. th wind indusy has gown apidly sin is

inoduion: h mak gw y 60% in h ya h law

was passd, ollowd y ou onsuiv yas o mo han

100% gowh (006-009).

th chins govnmn laid is long-m ommimn

o nwal ngy hough is ‘Mdium and Long-m

Dvlopmn Plan o rnwal engy in china’, lasd

in Spm 007. th plan s a ag o a mandaoy

mak sha (MMS) o liiy om nwal sous

– y 010 and 00, liiy poduion om non-hydo

tan Jing wind am, china© Nordex

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4


nwal sous should aoun o 1% and 3% o oal

liiy in h gid (indiaing a ag o aou 18-0 GW

o insalld apaiy y 010 and 80-100 GW y 00).

th plan also quis lag pow podus o gna 3%

o hi liiy om non hydo nwal ngy sous

y 010, and 8% y 00. In 008 h govnmn idni-

d six loaions in povins wih h ouny’s s wind

sous, and s ah o hm a ag – anging wn

10 GW and 3 GW – o ah y 00.

ecOnOMicS OF Wind d evelOpMenT

Unil h inoduion o nw d-in ais o wind pow in

009, china had a dual ak sysm o wind pojs, wih a

onssion nding poss on h on hand, and h poj-

y-poj ‘govnmn appoval’ poss on h oh. th

009 d-in ai now plas oh hs posss, xp

o h ‘wind-as’ pojs and h nw osho dvlop-mn. Now, h a ou din agois o ai dpnd-

ing on a gion’s wind sous, anging om 0.51 rMb/kWh

o 0.61 rMb/kWh1. No only is h d-in ai ompaal o

ha o h govnmn appovd ais ov h pas sval

yas in mos gions; and susanially high han mos a-

is gand und h old onssion sysm; i is s onsid-

aly high han h ai paid o oal-d liiy, whih

hlps alan h aaivnss o invsmns in hs wo

hnologis. Fuh, h d-in ai applis o h whol

opaional piod o a wind am – poviding invsos wih a

muh la long-m pspiv.

TurBine ManuFacTuring

two ways china has addssd h onomis o wind pow

plans a onomy o sal, y dvloping lag-sal poj-

s, and loal manuau o wind uins and oh quip-

mn. In h pas, uins manuaud y innaional

plays dominad h mak, u his hangd apidly as

h gowing mak and la poliy diion hav nou-

agd h salishmn o domsi plays.

009 was somhing o a uning poin o h apidly gow-

ing domsi indusy, in h sns ha i has ompld is

loalizaion and is now gaing up o h innaional ma-k. Y i sms unlikly ha all manuaus an suviv in

his oughly ompiiv mak. by h nd o 009, china

had almos 80 wind uin manuauing usinsss, aou

30 o whih had alady sold hi podus ino h mak.

Howv, in spi o hs nums, h op chins

manuaus unly domina h wind ngy so

in china. Goldwind, Sinovl and Dongang all and a pla

in h wold’s op n manuaus in 009, and Unid

Pow and Mingyang mad h op 15. Y, unlss h xpo

mak o chins wind quipmn inass onsidaly o

h hom mak xpands uh han pdid, h will

lil oom o h maining 60 chins manuaus

alongsid h salishd chins plays and h inna-

ional ompanis ha manuau in china.

chins uin manuaus a also adying hmslvs

o n h innaional mak, ali om mods gin-

nings. Only 1 chins-mad wind uins w xpod

in 009 (o h US, India and thailand), aoding o h

chins Wind engy Assoiaion (cWeA).

TranSMiSSiOn

I is y no mans unommon o a gowing wind so o

un up agains h onsains o a limid pow ansmis-

sion sysm. In china, whih is xpining apid onomi

gowh and an unpdnd xpansion o is pow so,

h gid inasuu is poving o a sious issu, sp-

ially in aas wih high wind spds, suh as h Nohws,

h Noh and h Nohas o china. this polm has oh

insiuional and hnologial asps.

1 Equivalent to €5.9 - 7.1 cents/kWh in September 2010

Xioa Yan Kou wind am, rudong, china© Wind Power Works

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


25


Poliially, h low oial ag o wind pow dvlop-

mn in china (30 GW y 00, a gu ha should in aliy

alady hav n ahd in mid-010) povids a wlom

xus o dlays in inasuu upgads. th lak o

suial pow gids in un disouags gid opaos om

aping mo wind pow ino h gid. Whil und h

xising lgislaion, gid ompanis a oligd o uy pow

gnad om nwal sous, h a no pnalis o

non-omplian wih his povision, and no ompnsaion is

paid o wind am opaos o h losss hy inu whn

ailing o sll hi pow. Alhough his issu was addssd

y h 009 amndmns o h rnwal engy Suppo

law, i is no y la i i will iv.

Ovall, howv, h is no dou ha givn h nd o

ulling h ouny’s gowing onomy, mo pow gids

will uil in china. On indiaion is h pioiy ha h

chins govnmn has givn o inasuu pojs in is

008 onomi ovy plan.

th un pow so plans qui h apaiy o ah

o h ws–as ansmission onnions o inas om

aou 7 GW (005) o 40 GW y 00; and as many o

china’s pim wind sis a a o h ws and noh o main

ns o populaion, xploiing hm ully will qui h

onsuion o muh nw ddiad ansmission.

OFFShOre Wind in china

Summ 010 saw pos ha china’s s osho wind

am – h 10 MW Donghai Daqiao insallaion na Shang-

hai’s eas Sa bidg – has sad ding pow ino h

ansmission gid ollowing omplion o onsuion in

Fuay. 34 Sinovl 3 MW uins mak up h s phaso h wind am. consuion also gan his ya on wha

will vnually 1,000 MW o osho wind o Shandong

Povin.

In Apil 009, h Naional engy Adminisaion (NeA)

askd ah o china’s oasal povins o ompil a po-

vinial osho wind dvlopmn plan, and dividd h

ponial osho wind sis ino h agois, dpnding

on h dph o wa: an ‘in-idal’ zon o wa dph o

lss han 5 m; an ‘osho’ zon o wa dph o 5-50 m;

and a ‘dp sa’ zon dp han 50 m. th povinial gov-

nmns a quid o da osho dvlopmn plans

o ‘in-idal’ and ‘osho’ wind dvlopmn up o 00.

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr china

In ou pvious Oulook, pulishd in 008, h 00 poj-

ions o oal insalld apaiy in china w 7 GW und

h rn snaio, 101 GW und h Moda gowh

snaio, and 01 GW und h Advand gowh s-

naio. Pojions o apaiy addiions in 010 w 9 GW

(rn), 17.5 GW (Moda) and 19.6 GW (Advand).

Howv – y h nd o 009 china’s oal insalld apaiy

had alady ahd 5.8 GW. I 010 ss h sam lvl

o nw uild as 009, wih no annual mak gowh a all,

china will hav los o 40 GW o wind pow insalld y

h nd o his ya.

Wih hs dvlopmns in mind, h snaios psnd inhis po hav n updad adially, whil h IeA’s r-

n snaio mains ah pssimisi.

Aoding o h IeA, h chins wind ngy mak will x-

pin a onsidal das in annual insallaions om

13.8 GW o nw apaiy addd in 009 o a m .5 GW

in 015 and 030. this would ansla ino a oal insalld

apaiy o 70 GW y 00, whih is signianly low han

h unoial chins ag o 150 GW y his im.

this slump in h annual mak would hav a damai

on invsmn and jos in china, wih invsmn

gus dopping om h un €18.6 illion p ya o a

china: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 009-030

[MW] Reference

Moderate

Advanced

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

y r Mot a

009 5,805 5,805 5,805

010 3,805 39,608 41,030

015 45,305 115,088 134,71

00 70,305 00,06 50,397030 95,305 403,741 513,46

2 PennWell: Global Power Review, 2010.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


6

m 3. illion y 015, and mploymn plumming om

an simad 150,000-00,000 jos o only 50,000 in his

imam.

Suh dvlopmn, as osn y h IeA, would no hlp

china’s o o u is aon missions, as wind pow

would hn sav only 103 million ons o cO2 annually y

00, and 140 million ons y 030.

Givn h chins govnmn’s ommimn o dvloping

h ounis wind sous, h GWeO Moda snaio

oss a mo alisi oninuaion o wind pow gowh

in china, wih annual insallaions inasing om h un13.8 GW o 17.7 GW y 00 and .1 GW y 030. by 015,

h oal insalld apaiy would inas o ah 115 GW,

and his would gow o 00 GW y 00 and 400 GW y

030.

As a sul, €1.3 illion would invsd in chins wind

dvlopmn vy ya y 00, and 4.6 illion in 030.

employmn in h so would gow om h unly

simad 00,000 jos o ah los o 300,000 y 00

and 400,000 y 030.

bu h GWeO shows ha h wind dvlopmn in china

ould go vn uh. th mos amiious Advand snaio

is looking a 135 GW o oal insalld apaiy y 015 and

50 GW y 00. this would gow o ah 513 GW y 030,

wih annual maks gowing o 5.5 GW ov ha piod.

this kind o vy lag sal dploymn o wind ngy

would hav signian onomi and nvionmnal ns

o h wold’s mos populad ouny.

by gnaing 330 tWh o lan liiy in 015, wind

pow would sa o mak up a onsidal sha o china’s

ovall pow dmand, and his would gow o 614 tWh y

00 and as muh as 1,58 tWh y 030. this would p-

sn aound 11% o china’s oal liiy onsumpion in00, and 18% y 030, asd on h IeA’s assumpions o

h ouny’s pow onsumpion gowh, and i would hlp

ul h ouny’s gowing onomy and povid a hdg

agains volail ossil ul pis.

Suh dvlopmn would also sul in mo han €5 illion

o invsmn fowing ino h chins wind so vy

ya y 030, whih would go along wih a douling o h

wind so wok o om h un 00,000 o ah

los o 400,000 in his imam.

And, las u no las, xploiing h ouny’s wind

sous o his lvl would signianly impov china’s

aon missions alan. by 015, wind pow would hlp

sav 190 million ons o cO2 vy ya, and his gu would

gow o 750 million ons y 030.

Howv, in od o china o ully xploi h onomi and

nvionmnal ns ha wind pow an o, ain

maining osals nd o addssd. this onns

h issu o gid inasuu o aommoda v lagamouns o wind pow in h naional liiy gid and

anspo hm om h windy u mo aas o popula-

ion and indusy ns.

A din, y lad issu onns h govnmn ag

o wind pow dvlopmn. Alhough h un oial

ag o 30 GW y 00 has alady n m, h ag

has no n inasd y. Amiious ags, howv, a

ky o dmonsaing poliial ommimn o wind pow

dvlopmn, and o nouaging invsmn, oh in manu-

auing and in gids.

Hlan Shan wind am, china© Nordex

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


27


est eo/es

this goup o ounis angs om nw eU mms suh

as h bali sas (esonia, Lavia, Lihuania), bosnia and

Hzgovina, coaia, Sia, Slovnia, hough romania and

bulgaia and hn aswads ino russia and Ukain, and

nally souh-aswads ino cnal Asia, aoss h ounis

ha usd o mak up h Sovi Union. th IeA has also

inludd cypus and Mala in his gouping.

th goup ovs adially din onomis and pow

sysms. Som ounis, suh as tukmnisan o Azaijan,

hav massiv svs o oil and gas; ohs, suh as tajikisanand Alania m hi pow nds almos nily om

hydo, whil som ounis hav o impo ih li-

iy, ul o oh. cn sag is sou-ih russia, whih

is h wold’s ouh-lags pow gnao. Many o hs

ounis hav pow saions o piplins ha a now

naing h nd o hi li, and whih will nd plamn

gadlss o any inas in dmand.

All hs aas hav n assssd o som xn o hi

nwal ngy ponial, and muh o his vas euasian

landmass has xlln wind sous.1 bu how, whn, and

indd whh his will appd is mo iky o answ.

to da, h main wind dvlopmns hav n in hos

asn euopan and bali sas whih am mms

o h euopan Union in 004, suh as romania, bulgaia

and h bali sas. ths nw mm sas had o apply

h 001 eU rnwals Diiv, and hi assion ay

s naional indiaiv ags o nwal pow podu-

ion o ah sa. thy a o ous now also ound y h

eU’s nw lgislaion o 0% o h lo’s ngy onsump-ion o om om nwal sous, whih inluds a ind-

ing ag o ah ouny.

Anoh div o h inoduion o wind dvlopmn

aoss h easn euop and euasia gion has n h

Join Implmnaion mhanism ha oms pa o h

Kyoo Poool. Und his aangmn, any Annx 1 (indus-

ializd) ouny an invs in missions duion pojs

in any oh Annx 1 ouny as an alnaiv o duing

is own missions. this mhanism was agd a h so-

alld ‘ansiion onomis’, u as many o hs hav now

om eU mms, h main ous o JI is now on russia

and Ukain. As o Augus 010, h w 30 wind ngy

pojs in h JI piplin, oalling an insalld apaiy o

1,80 MW. th lags on o hs, a 300 MW, is load in

Ukain.

Wind pow dvlopmn has alady sad in som o

h ounis ovd in his sion. Whil rom, whih

aoding o h eU Diiv mus m 4% o is ngy

dmand y nwals in 00, had only 14 MW o wind

pow insalld a h nd o 009, h ouny’s poj

piplin is impssiv. eWeA’s snaios india ha in 00

h ouny ould hav up o 3.5 GW insalld, and h ro-

manian wind ngy assoiaion livs ha 3 GW ould

ahd as aly as 013. In Apil 010, Idola rnovals

was gand pmission o uild 1,500 MW o nw wind a-

paiy wn 011 and 017, and Gman rWe is planning

o dvlop 350 MW.

th siuaion in B is also pomising. Wih a nwal

ngy ag o 16% und h eU Diiv, h ouny

inodud avoual poliis o pomo nwal ngy

dvlopmn, and wind pow insallaions hav n gow-

ing onsidaly in n yas, wih a oal o 177 MW

opaing a h nd o 009. Aoding o h ebrD, aound

1,000 MW woh o wind pojs a unly a vaious

planning sags, and h ovall ponial is simad a

aound .-3.4 GW.

© LM Wind Power

1 Much o the inormation in this chapter, including the resource assessment, is derived rom the EBRD’s Renewable Development Initiative (www.ebrdrenewables.com)2 Note that some o these countries, such as Poland, are covered in the OECD Europe section

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


8


th Bt Stts hav also sad o dvlop wind pow,

wih 14 MW o insalld apaiy in esonia, 91 MW in

Lihuania and 8 MW in Lavia a h nd o 009. Und

h nw eU Diiv, hs ounis hav inding ags

o ming 5%, 3% and 40% spivly o hi ngy

nds wih nwal sous, and hy all hav signian

wind sous, spially along h oaslins, whih an go

a long way owads ahiving hi goals.

rss is, du o is sh siz, ky whn i oms o d-

mining ponial nwal ngy gowh in his gion. th

wold’s ouh-lags liiy gnao o li pow

podus 68% o is pow om hmal pow gnaion,

1% om lag hydo plans and 10% om nula pow.

‘Nw’ nwal ngy unly only aouns o aound

1% o russia’s liiy supply.

russia’s massiv svs o gas, oal and oil lad o a lowos o ngy, whih as a hallng o h dvlop-

mn o nwal sous. Howv, h ouny has a

signian ponial o nwal ngy dvlopmn, no

las du o is siz and gogaphy.

Wih many un pow plans ahing h nd o hi

liim, h russian govnmn simas ha 186 GW

o nw o plamn gnaion apaiy is ndd y

00. Pa o russia’s sagy is o du h popoion

o is pow gnaion om gas, paly y addiion o mo

nula pow and lag hydo. Howv, in Januay 009

h govnmn s a ag o nwal pow gnaion

o supply 4.5% o dmand y 00, up om lss han 1% a

psn. In a sysm as lag as russia’s, his signis an ad-

diional GW o nw nwals gnaion – h russian

Wind engy Assoiaion alulas ha his ould inlud

7 GW o nw wind pow y 00.

russia has hug ponial o wind pow dvlopmn, a-

oding o h ebrD, wih h windis gions onnad

along h oaslin, in h spps and in h mounains,

mainly in h Noh and Ws o h ouny. to da, h

dvlopmn o h wind so has n slow, wih only a

lil ov 0 MW o wind insalld, and no nw onsuion

o ommial wind ams sin 00. Mo nly, how-

v, h wind pow indusy in russia has sad gaining a

lil i o aion, wih a dmonsaion poj oming

opaional in Mumansk in 008. Planning has also gun o

uild a lag-sal wind am in h sam gion. A psn

mo han 1,700 MW o wind pojs a pod o

und dvlopmn.

u, also a ouny oving a vas land mass, has good

wind sous and a dvloping onomy. Aoding o

ebrD simas, ov 40% o h ouny’s ioy would

suial o wind gnaion. Aou 5,000 MW o wind pow

ould dvlopd in h mid-m, and as muh as 0-30%

o h ouny’s oal liiy dmand ould m y

wind. In 1996, h Ukainian govnmn annound a ag

o insalling 00 MW y 010, u y h nd o 009, only

94 MW had n ahd.

Fuh as, sval ounis inluding kst,

Tmst, ab and ubst hav aas wih

© GWEC © LM Wind Power

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


29


xlln wind sous, u lag oil and gas svs hav

o da n a disinniv o any nwal ngy dvlop-

mn. counis wih w ossil ul sous, suh as k

st, go and Tst migh mo pomising

o wind pow dvlopmn in h sho and mdium m,

u no dvlopmn has akn pla o da.

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr eaSTern eurOpe/

euraSia

Apa om h nw eU mm sas in his gion, whih a

undaking onsidal os o ah up in ms o nw-

al ngy dploymn, no signian dvlopmn has akn

pla in easn euop. Pognosiaion o h insalld wind

pow apaiy in h na and mid-m uu is paiulaly

diul in his gion, as his will lagly dpnd on poliial

disions in som ky ounis, spially russia and Ukain.

I hs govnmns did o xploi h mndous -sou a hi doosp and povid h nssay innivs

o aaing invsos, wind pow gnaion ould play

a ky ol in ulling hs gowing onomis. Wihou his

poliial will, howv, h wind maks a s o sagna.

Aoding o h IeA’s rn snaio, his is xaly wha

will happn. this snaio ss annual maks aoss h

whol gion (inluding h nw eU mm sas) inas

om 75 MW in 009 o ah 500 MW y 015, and hn

750 MW y 030. this would sul in a oal insalld apa-

iy o los o 6 GW y 00 and 13 GW y 030, up om

und 500 MW in 009.

Suh a dvlopmn would no hav any susanial impa

on pow gnaion, onomi gowh o missions savings

in hs ounis. In 00, wind pow would only podu

14.3 tWh aoss h ni gion – ompad o an si-

mad liiy onsumpion o 880 tWh in russia alon

a ha im and 1,500 tWh in h whol gion o easn

euop/euasia, aoding o h IeA.

Invsmn in wind quipmn would also ngligil,

amouning o only aound €600 million in 00, and m-

ploymn in h wind so would sand a aound 8,500

jos y hn.

th Moda snaio is slighly mo opimisi, assuming

ha oh h eU mm sas and som oh ounis

wih xising nwal ngy ags will m hs as

plannd. this would sul in annual maks inasing

naly nold wn 009 and 00, and ahing mo

han 8GW y 030. th insalld apaiy would hn sand

a 1 GW in 00 and 71 GW y 030.

th suling ns o pow gnaion and lima

poion would mo sizal und his snaio. In

00, wind pow would podu los o 30 tWh o lan

liiy, and his would gow o 174 tWh y 030, saving

17.7 mil cO2 and 104.5 mil cO2 spivly. I w onsid

ha h gion’s liiy dmand is oas o ah

1,800 tWh y 030, hough, h ovall sha o wind pow

in h liiy sysm would sill ah small ompad

o oh gions in his snaio.

In ms o invsmn and jos, h Moda snaio

gus would ansla ino invsmns woh €.7 illion

in 00, aing 33,000 jos, and €9.1 illion in 030 wiha woko o 11,500 million popl mployd in h wind

so.

th gus in h Advand snaio a slighly high. H,

15.8 GW o wind pow would insalld y 00, podu-

ing 38.7 tWh and saving 3 million ons o cO. Annual ma-

ks unning a aound 4 GW in 00 would aa €4.8 il-

lion in invsmn vy ya, and his would inas o los

o 10 GW y 030, whih would ansla ino €10.6 illion

invsd in h so. Mo han 145,000 popl would y

hn woking in h ld o wind ngy.

eaSTern eurOpe/euraSia: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 2009-2030

[MW] Reference

Moderate

Advanced

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

y r Mot a

009 484 484 484

010 869 910 938

015 3,369 4,14 4,073

00 5,869 1,083 15,784030 13,369 71,011 86,815

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


30


i

India’s apidly gowing onomy and xpanding populaion

mak i hungy o li pow. In spi o majo apa-

iy addiions ov n dads, pow supply suggls o

kp up wih dmand. eliiy shoags a ommon, and

a signian pa o h populaion has no ass o l-

iiy a all. India’s liiy dmand is pojd o mo

han ipl wn 005 and 030. th IeA pdis ha y

00, 37 GW o pow gnaion apaiy will ndd,

whih would imply h addiion o 16 GW p ya.

this ugn nd is fd in h ag h Indian govn-mn has s in is 11h Fiv Ya Plan (007-01), whih

nvisags an addiion o 78.7 GW in his piod, 50.5 GW o

whih is oal, and 10.5 GW nw wind gnaion apaiy,

plus 3.5 GW oh nwals.

th Indian Minisy o Nw and rnwal engy (MNre)

simas ha h is a ponial o aound 90 GW o

pow gnaion om din nwal ngy sous in

h ouny, inluding 48.5 GW o wind pow, 14.3 GW o

small hydo pow and 6.4 GW o iomass.

th un gus a asd on masumns om only

nin sas, and whih w akn a low hu highs, in lin

wih old hnology. A mo n wind alas pulishd y

h cn o Wind thnology (cWet) in Apil 010 si-

mad h sou ponial a 49,130 MW. this was asd

on an assumd land availailiy o % and 9 MW o insall-

al wind pow apaiy p squa kilom.

I sms likly ha h wind pow ponial is onsidaly

undsimad. th Indian Wind tuin ManuausAssoiaion (IWtMA) simas ha a hu highs o 55–

65 ms, ponial o wind dvlopmn in India is aound

65–70 GW. th Wold Insiu o Susainal engy, India

(WISe) onsids ha wih lag uins, ga land

availailiy and xpandd sou xploaion, h ponial

ould as ga as 100 GW.1

A h nd o 009, India had 10,96 MW o insalld wind

apaiy, and 11,807 MW w ahd y h nd o h

ouny’s nanial ya on 31 Mah 010. Howv, wind

pow in India is onnad in a w gions, spially

h souhn sa o tamil Nadu, whih mainains is posi-

ion as h sa wih h lags wind pow insallaion.

I had 4.6 GW insalld on 31 Mah 010, psning

los o 40% o India’s oal wind apaiy. this is ginning

o hang as oh sas, inluding Mahaasha, Gujaa,

rajashan, Kanaaka, Ws bngal, Madhya Padsh and

Andha Padsh sa o ah up, paly divn y nw poliy

masus.

India aid h Kyoo Poool in Augus 00, and h

possiiliy o gis pojs und h clan Dvlopmn

Mhanism (cDM) povidd a uh inniv o wind

ngy dvlopmn. by 1 Spm 010, 416 Indian wind

pojs w in h cDM piplin, aouning o 6,839 MW,

sond only o china.

India’s wind ngy ponial has only n paially alisd

du o h lak o a ohn naional nwal ngypoliy. cunly, h pomoion o nwal ngy in India

is mainly divn y sa govnmns. Whil som sas

hav s high nwal poolio sandads, oh sas

only hav low o no ags, and nomn is insuin.

Fuhmo, whil in hoy, rPS and d-in-ais an

oxis, his nds o wll managd o avoid ininis.

th lak o a naional poliy is hamping gnuin pogss.

Unil vy nly, h pomoion o nwal pow gn-

aion a a naional lvl lid on on laus o h 003

eliiy A. this a suud h Indian liiy

indusy y unundling h vially ingad li-

iy supply uiliis in h Indian Sas and salishing

Gujaa wind am, Kuh, India© Wind Power Works

1 WISE (G.M. Pillai): Wind Power Development in India, 2006.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


3


In his snaio, €3.7 illion would invsd in Indian wind

dvlopmn vy ya y 00, psning a quadu-

pling o 009 invsmn gus. employmn in h so

would gow om h unly simad 1,400 jos o ov

84,000 y 00 and 113,000 n yas la.

Y h GWeO Advand snaio shows ha h wind dvl-

opmn in India ould go muh uh: by 00 India ould

hav almos 75 GW o wind pow in opaion, supplying

183 tWh o liiy ah ya, whil mploying almos

150,000 popl in h so and saving almos 173.5 mil-

lion onns o cO2 missions ah ya. Invsmn would y

hn hav ahd a lvl o €7 illion p ya.

As mniond aov, h IeA rn snaio pdis ha

y 00, a oal o 37 GW o pow gnaion apaiy will

ndd in India, whih would imply an addiion o 16 GW

p ya. As h Advand snaio shows, wind pow ould poviding a signian popoion o his y 00.

Wih ha lvl o momnum salishd in India’s wind

so, h n yas wn 00 and 030 would hn

s spaula gowh, mo han douling h insalld

apaiy o wind pow and aking i o ov 160 GW und

h Advand snaio. this would go vn uh owads

ming India’s gowing nd o li pow. by 030

wind pow would gnaing almos 400,000 GWh p

ya and avoiding h mission o 373 million onns o

cO2 ah ya.

lt am

Lain Amia, a gion o ga ulual and onomi div-

siy, has som o h wold’s s wind sous. Hom o

many gowing onomis wih inasing liiy dmand,

plus a oad ommimn o nvionmnal poion, his

pa o h wold is onsidd pim ioy o h dploy-

mn o wind pow.1

bginnings hav n mods o da. A h nd o 009,

only 1,07 MW o wind pow apaiy had n insalld

aoss h ni gion. 505 MW o his was insalld duing

009, wih nw wind insallaions in six ounis. th asigns, howv, ha wind pow is now nally ahing ii-

al mass in a num o Lain Amian maks, and ha h

gion is on h vg o dvloping a susanial wind pow

indusy o omplmn h gion’s ih hydo and iomass

(and ponially sola) sous.

Howv, w hav o a in mind ha Lain Amia is a

om ing a homognous gion. In a, h oninn’s

40+ ounis and ovsas iois a a vasly di-

n sags o onomi dvlopmn. th a a num o

mging onomis in h gion whos p apia inom

is simila o – o ga han – ha o som nw eU mm

sas; y a h sam im h gion is sill plagud wih

xm povy and unddvlopmn in som ounis

and su-naional gions.

Brazil

Wind pow is making h mos pogss in bazil, h -

gion’s lags onomy. this ouny has aas wih mn-

dous ponial o wind ngy, omind wih a gowingliiy dmand and solid indusial inasuu.

bazil has hisoially lid havily on hydo pow gna-

ion, whih unil nly podud 80% o h ouny’s

liiy nds. As wind and hydo pow wok wll

ogh wihin a pow sysm, his ominaion oms an

idal asis o lag-sal wind pow dvlopmn.

A a w aly dvlopmns in h s hal o his dad,

h bazilian wind mak now sms o aking o. In

008, 94 MW w addd, and anoh 64 MW in 009,

Gujaa wind am, Kuh, India© Wind Power Works

1 Please note that Mexico is part o OECD North America, according to the IEA’s classifcationwhich is used in this r eport or comparison purposes

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


33

maning ha 606 MW w in opaion y h nd o 009.

Duing h s hal o 010, anoh 180 MW had n

addd, wih naly 300 MW mo und onsuion. cumu-

laiv insalld apaiy should ah mo han 900 MW y

h nd o h ya.

Wind pojs awadd hough h PrOINFA pogamm

aoun o ov 95% o wind pow insallaions o da in

bazil. this pogamm was iniially passd y h bazilian

congss in 00 in od o simula h addiion o ov

1,100 MW o wind ngy apaiy, whih was la xpandd

o 1,400 MW. I looks inasingly likly ha h 1,100 MW

ag will m, i no nssaily h ull 1,400 MW.

In Dm 009, h bazilian ngy gulao, Agnia

Naional d engia elia (ANeeL), hosd h ouny’s

s wind-only auion. though ha, 71 wind ngy pojs

w onad o a oal apaiy o 1,800 MW. two moauions ook pla a h nd o Augus 010 wih a oal

ona volum o aou ,000 MW.

argenTina

Agnina also has massiv wind sous. Som analyss

laim ha h winds in Agnina a suin o supply

Lain Amia’s ni lial dmand svn ims ov. A

naiv sa a dvloping his sou was mad duing

h 1990s; in a, ha is whn almos all o Agnina’s u-

nly opaing wind ams w uil. Sin hn, h oun-

y’s mak has languishd. Nw hop has now aisn wih

h nd o 500 MW o wind pow und h GeNreN

pogamm wih a ag o 8% nwal liiy, and

sval nw pojs a und dvlopmn.

OTher MarkeTS

Anoh pomising mak is c, whih had naly 170 MW

in opaion a h nd o 009. A num o lag wind

pow pojs a und dvlopmn, and hy a dsp-

aly ndd o hlp allvia honi gas shoags.

Oh wind pow maks in h gion inlud cost r,

whih had aou 10 MW o wind pow a h nd o 009,

and a nw 50 MW poj is xpd o om on lin in

010; p, whih had naly 150 MW und onsuion a

h nd o 009; u, whih has a ag o 500 MW y

015; v wih 100 MW unly und onsuion,shduld o om on lin in 011; jm, wih 3 MW

insalld apaiy, and n, whih addd 40 MW o

nw wind 009, hy joining h lis o ounis wih

ommial-sal wind pow dvlopmn.

Finally, alhough h is som dvlopmn o wind pow

in h island onomis in h cbb, whih unly

mosly ly on impod ossil uls, wind pow ould play a

muh mo susanial ol in hlping gow hi onomis

on a mo susainal asis.

Unounaly, howv, all o hs aly maks su om

h lak o a la, long-m poliy amwok o h dvl-

rio do Fogo wind am, bazil© Wind Power Works

2 Alan D. Poole: The Potential o Renewable Energy Resources or Electricity Generation inLatin America, 2009.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


34


opmn o a wind pow indusy, whih oninus o hamp

mak dvlopmn. Signals a ndd om govnmns

indiaing o h piva so and h nan ommuniy

ha h is la poliial ommimn o dvlop nw-

al ngy in gnal and wind pow in paiula. this

would a h sam im os onomi dvlopmn,

aa invsmn and a h ‘gn’ jos ha hav n

h oj o govnmn poliy in many oh pas o h

wold – as h snaio gus undlin.

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr laTin aMerica

GWec xps wind ngy insallaions in Lain Amia o

onsidaly song han pviously hough, wih n-

ouaging dvlopmns in maks suh as bazil, Agnina

and chil.

Und h rn snaio, wind pow ould povid

Lain Amia wih 6 tWh o liiy vy ya whil

saving 15.6 million onns o cO2 missions y 030; o i

ould, und h Advand snaio, gna naly n

ims as muh (31.4 tWh) and sav 139 million onns o

cO2 missions p ya y hn. this sak din und-

lins h nomous impa ha a posiiv poliial amwok

an mak aoss his wind-ih oninn.

Und h rn snaio h would 10.5 GW o

wind insalld aoss h ni oninn y 030. this

would, in a, man ha h annual mak would shink

om h 505 MW insalld in 009 o as lil as 00 MW

y 015. Only y 030 would i again ah is un siz,

aoding o h IeA’s rn Snaio.

th Moda snaio, whih aks ino aoun un

poliis and ags, oss a muh mo apid dvlop-

mn, wih annual addiions ahing 3,000 MW as aly as

015, and mo han 5,000 MW y 030. this would ing

h oal insalld wind apaiy o 8 GW y 00 and

7 GW y 030. th impa on liiy poduion would

onsidal, wih 68.7 tWh o wind pow gnad in

00 and 176.7 tWh in 030.

th Advand snaio oulins ha vn mo ould

ahivd, givn h xaodinay wind ondiions in many

Lain Amian ounis. I ully xploid, wind pow

ould oom h, wih mo han 13.3 GW o wind pow

insalld aoss h oninn in 015. this ould hn go on

o inas o 4. GW y 00 and as muh as 93.3 GW y

030.

Wih suh a dvlopmn, wind pow would sa o a-

oun o a signian pa o liiy dmand, poduing

mo han 100 tWh y 00 and 31 tWh y 030.

Wind pow dvlopd a suh a sal would no only

snghn Lain Amia’s ngy indpndn, u i

would also hav a di impa on gional onomi dvl-

opmn and jos.

In ms o mploymn, h w aou 7,400 jos in h

Lain Amian wind so in 009. Und h rn

snaio, his num would all o jus ov 3,600 y 015

and only ah un lvls again in 00. th Advandsnaio shows ha om 015 o 030, h so ould,

ah ya, hav mploymn gus mo han n ims as

high as in h rn snaio, ahing 100,000 y 030.

equally, wind pow would aa susanial invsmn;

h Advand snaio simas ha Lain Amia’s wind

so ould woh as muh as €4.3 illion ah ya as

aly as 015, gowing o €6.5 illion y 030, ompad o

jus €680 million in 009.

laTin aMerica: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 2009-2030

[MW] Reference

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Advanced

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

y r Mot a

009 1,07 1,07 1,07

010 1,5 1,956 ,08

015 ,5 11,93 13,39

00 4,77 8,004 4,4030 10,5 7,044 93,347

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35


M est

As a gion, h Middl eas – lassid y h IeA as bahain,

Ian, Iaq, Isal, Jodan, Kuwai, Lanon, Oman, Qaa, Saudi

Aaia, Syia, Unid Aa emias and Ymn – is ih in oil

and gas. Y h onomis o h vaious ounis f

h a ha hs svs a unvnly disiud – mm-

s o h Gul coopaion counil (Au Dhai, bahain,

Kuwai, Saudi Aaia, Oman and Qaa) a gnally mos

afun. Whil hos ounis a majo xpos o oil,

ohs a impos, on a a vy high os ompad o

hi ovall GDP. Inasd pospiy in muh o h gion

mans ha h dmand o pow has n gowing apidlyo indusial and onsum nds, wih xa loads o ool-

ing and dsalinaion. Som o h walhis ounis in

h Middl eas gion a among h wold’s mos aon

inns onomis.

Givn h ovall aidiy o h gion, i may supising

ha hydo pow is wll dvlopd in ounis suh as Ian,

wih som 7,500 MW o insalld apaiy gnaing jus

ov 18 tWh p ya and Syia wih 1,500 MW, podu-

ing 4 tWh p ya. Iaq has ,5 MW o insalld hydo

apaiy u un poduion is only aou 500 GWh/

ya1. Mos oh pow poduion in h gion is asd on

naual gas.

A num o govnmns in h Middl eas hav d-

vlopd naional plans o nwal ngy. th las

engy [r]voluion Snaio aniipas ha, givn poliial

suppo and wll-dsignd poliy insumns, y 050, 95%

o h liiy podud in h Middl eas ould om

om nwal ngy sous – mainly wind, sola hmal

ngy and phoovolais. th insalld apaiy o hsnwal ngy hnologis will gow om h un

10 GW o 556 GW in 050, ming 83% o h gion’s

dmand o haing and ooling, says h po.

As gads wind pow, h gion had 101 MW insalld a

nd o 009. Whil lss vnly disiud han sola, h

gion’s wind sou is xlln in som aas, as sval o

h govnmns a now ognizing. Ian and Oman hav

good wind gims, as do Syia and Jodan.

i is h only ouny in h gion wih any lag sal

wind pow insallaions. th ouny unly has wo

wind ams: h Manjil wind am in Giland povin, and h

binalook wind am in Khoasan razavi povin, whih hav

an insalld apaiy o 91 MW. th a plans o xpand-

ing wind apaiy o ah 400 MW in h oming yas.

Sudis hav shown ha ovall, Ian has a ponial o

wind pow dvlopmn o aound 15 GW3. Ian os ax

and invsmn dis o suppo nwals dvlopmn.

In addiion, Ian is hom o h gion’s only wind uin

manuau, Saa Nioo.

jo unly gnas 1.5% o is li pow om

nwal sous. Is poliy is o ahiv 7% o is pimay

ngy dmand om nwals y 015, and 10% y 00.

In Januay 010 h govnmn passd a nw rnwal

engy Law, whih quis h Naional eli Pow

company (NePcO) o puhas all liiy podud yindpndn and small-sal nwal plans a ull ail

pi (n ming). th govnmn is podly onsid-

ing inoduing an inniv sysm o pomo invsmn

in wind pow, whih ould inlud a d-in ai.

Jodan’s s wind sous a in Aqaa and h Jodan

Vally, and h govnmn innds o uild 600 MW o wind

y 015 and a uh 600-1,000 MW y 00. In summ

010 ngoiaions o Jodan’s s wind am w und way

again (having salld ali) – his is o a 30-40 MW wind

pow plan in Kamshah.

© Wind Power Works

1 World Energy Council: Survey o Energy Resources, 2009: see www.worldenergy.org/documents/hydro_7_1_1.pd 2 www.energyblueprint.ino3 University o Tehran: Recent Advances in the Implementation o Wind Energy in Iran, 2006. www.jgsee.k mutt.a c.th/see1/cd/fle /B-002.pd

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


36


S’s ag is o nwal ngy o mak up 4.3% o

pimay ngy dmand y 011, and i has wo wind ams

(100 MW and 30 MW) in planning, wih wo loaions ing

opnd up o invsmn y Syian and oign ompanis.

A nw plan o Syian ngy, nild ‘Masplan o engy

einy and rnwal engis’ (Meere), is ing dawn

up ogh wih h Gmany’s GtZ (Gsllsha ü th-

nish Zusammnai – Gman thnial coopaion)

and xpd o lasd la his ya.

Manwhil an inim Meere po om Januay 010

onmd ha Syia has good ponial o wind ngy d-

vlopmn, and indiad ha a possil 030 ag ould

1,000-1,500 MW.

Om is a small ouny wih only .6 million inhaians,

and onsidal svs o naual gas and ud oil, and aoal insalld pow gnaion apaiy o aound 3.5 GW.

to m inasing dmand, his is oas o gow y

.8 GW y 014.

Naual gas and oil xpos aoun o aound hal o

Oman’s GDP, and psving is svs is h ky inn-

iv o h govnmn o look a dvloping h ouny’s

nwal ngy sous. A n sudy ommissiond y

h govnmn ound an xlln ponial o sola ngy

dploymn and onsidal wind pow ponial. Wind

ngy ould dvlopd mainly in h souhn pa o

Oman and in h mounains noh o Salalah. Insingly,

h masud wind spds w highs in summ monhs,

whn liiy dmand in Oman is a is pak.4

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr Middle eaST

considing h signian ponial o wind pow in som

Middl easn ounis, h GWeO snaios o h gion

a y a mo opimisi han h IeA’s rn snaio.

this oass ha h gion’s oal insalld wind apa-

iy, whih sood a 101 MW y h nd o 009, will gow o

aound .5 GW y 00 and 6 GW y 030.

Und h Moda snaio, whih aks ino aoun un

and aniipad govnmn ags and a gowing ins in

aping h ns wind pow an ing o h gion, h Mid-

dl eas’s insalld wind apaiy would gow o .5 GW y 00

and 4.8 GW y 030. In h Advand snaio, his would gow

vn uh, o ah 10.5 GW y 00 and 34. GW y 030.

th liiy gnad hough wind pow in hs

snaios would nal som o h Middl easn ounis

o impov hi ngy indpndn and hlp hos ih in

ossil ul sous o alis onsidal ul savings.

by 00, wn 6 (Moda snaio) and 6 tWh (Ad-

vand snaio) ould podud vy ya, and his would

inas o 61-84 tWh y 030. Aodingly, cO2 mission

savings would wn 3.6 and 15.5 million ons p ya y

00, and as muh as 36.5 and 50 million ons y 030.

© Wind Power Works

Middle eaST: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 2009-2030

[MW] Reference

Moderate

Advanced

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.00035.000

40.000

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

y r Mot a

009 101 10 10

010 11 119 13

015 465 737 ,706

00 ,07 ,487 10,53030 5,987 4,791 34,159

4 Authority or Electricity Regulation, Oman: Study on Renewable Energy Resources, Oman.May 2008. http://www.aer-oman.org/pd/studyreport.pd

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


37


noOecd as

this gion goups ogh all Asian ounis apa om

china, India, Japan and Souh Koa, whih a ovd in

oh sions. th ‘gion’ angs hus om Aghanisan

hough Mongolia, o Souhas Asia and h islands o h

Pai (s p. 18 o a ull lis o ounis).

A psn, h is lil dvlopmn o wind pow in many

o hs ounis. Howv, ha is no o say ha h is

no ponial, o no plans. Whil on migh xp a ouny

suh as Mongolia o hav an ousanding wind sou,

h ponial o dvlopmn in ounis suh as Vinamo Laos may om as a supis; o i is on livd ha

h is no a vial wind sou in h opis – wh

many o hs ounis a load.

Faos oh han pu wind sou ponial a involvd

in pojing whn (o indd i) wind pow is likly o

dvlopd and how muh: dmogaphi aos, dpndn

on ul impos, onomi gowh and onsqun inas in

lial dmand, sa o h ansmission and disiuion

sysm, . On ponial nal opn o many o hs

ounis is h clan Dvlopmn Mhanism o h Kyoo

Poool (cDM), whih an ponially simula invsmn

in nwal ngy pojs y indusializd ounis.

Whil h ak-up o his has alady n vy good in som

sos (suh as in thailand’s iomass pow so), h

a so a w wind pow pojs in h cDM piplin in

h in his gion – wo in h Philippins, and on ah in

Mongolia, Vinam and Si Lanka.

Aoss h gion ovd h h a a las a dozn

vian and apidly gowing maks in whih wind ngyould play a signian ol. th is also a noial shi

in h aiud o poliymaks and uiliy xuivs o wind

pow. Whil wind would hav n dismissd as ‘oo xpn-

siv’ y mos dvloping ouny ngy planns jus a w

yas ago, h oninuing suss o h hnology in an v

widning goup o ounis has hangd ha aiud o on

o damaially inasd knowldg aou wind gnaion

and h ol ha i an play in a ouny’s pow mix.

th maks ovd low giv som ida o h hnial

ponial, and also h wid ang o akgound ondiions

in his divs gouping. In som ass, an au nd o

addiional pow apaiy oms ogh wih an xlln

sou – and suh is h as o ounis suh as Vinam

o Pakisan.

Dvloping a susanial sha o nwal pow gna-

ion always quis govnmn ags and innivs.

Qui a w o h ounis in his gion do hav ags in

pla – hough ha dos no nssaily man ha inn-

ivs a also in pla o suppo h ahivmn o hos

ags.

Fo insan, bangladsh wans 5% o is liiy o om

om nwals y 015; Pakisan has s a ag o 10%

y 01. Mongolia plans o inas is sha o nwal

liiy om h un 3% o 0–5% y 00. th Phil-

ippins is aging 4.7% y 013; Si Lanka wans o go om

h un 5% o ah 10% y 017 and 14.1% y 0,

tonga is aging 50% y 01, and Indonsia wans o uild55 MW o wind apaiy y 05 (alongsid oh nw-

al hnologis suh as 6 GW o gohmal).1

Som wind pow dvlopmn has alady akn pla in

his gion, inluding:

th ps’ xising pow gnaing apaiy is aou

15 GW. eliiy gnad om nwal sous suh as

hydo, iomass and gohmal pow ompis 33% o h

Philippins’ un pow mix, and h govnmn has said

i hops o inas ha o 40% in a dad, adding wind,

1 All these fgures are taken rom REN21 Global Status Report 2010

© Wind Power Works

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


38

sola and oan ngy o h nwal mix. A 41.7 million

USD und has n s up o hlp wih his poss. As a

as wind sou gos, aoding o SWerA gus, 11,000

km – o 3.7% o h land aa – hav good wind sous,

whih ould ponially suppo h dvlopmn o 55 GW

o wind pow – ov h ims h un oal insalld

pow apaiy.

vtm’s (puly hnial) wind ponial ould suppo

64 GW o wind pow aoding o SWerA gus. In ad-

diion, Vinam has a as-gowing onomy and a gowing

dmand o li pow. th ouny has n xpanding

is gnaing apaiy, inluding hough nw lag hydo

dams, u sill nds o impo liiy om china. th

Vinams govnmn is aiming o nwal pow o

povid aou 5% o h naion’s liiy y 00.

Vinam’s s wind dvlopmns ook pla in 009. Ono h ouny’s s plans a binh thuan will soon on-

nd o h gid, and wo mo pojs a pod o

in h piplin in Lam Dong Povin (150 MW and 80 MW).

Invso ins in h Vinams wind mak is onsid-

al, and ovall, som 0 wind pow pojs wih a om-

ind apaiy o 0 GW a podly in h piplin.

T’s gowing afun has ld o a saling is in p

apia liiy onsumpion, whih has gown y almos

5% in h pas v yas. An simad 30. GW o nw

gnaion apaiy will ndd y 01. A psn, thai-

land’s liiy gnaion is dominad y ossil uls, u

h govnmn nly annound a 15-ya Alnaiv

engy Dvlopmn Plan (AeDP) wih a ag o inasing

h sha o nwal ngy om 6.4% in 008 o 0% in

0, wih an 800 MW ag o wind apaiy. Aoding o

SWerA gus, thailand’s hnial wind sou ould sup-

po h dvlopmn o 190 GW o wind pow.

Pospous Tw gnad and onsumd 30 tWh in

008, y i has o impo 98% o is ul quimns.

taiwan has s a ag o nwals o m 10% o is

liiy nds y 010, up om 5.8% unly. Wind pow-

is xpd o m 80% o ha, and a d-in ai was

inodud in 009. Duing 009, taiwan insalld 78 MW o

nw wind pow, inging h oal o 436 MW. taiwan dos

hav a good wind sou on is wsn oas as wll as

osho, u i mains o sn i h guaand puhaspi is high nough o nouag invsmn.

In pst, h a-ahing impliaions o h food

disas o 010 on inasuu in gnal, and h pow

inasuu spially, anno y assssd a h im

o wiing. th was an au pow shoag vn o

his disas, and a song inas in pow dmand. Mos

o h ouny’s pow nds o da a m y ossil uls.

to suppo h addiion o nwal apaiy, h Asian

Dvlopmn bank s up a 510 million USD naning ail-

iy in 006, and duing ha sam ya, a d-in ai was

inodud.3

2 UNEP’s Sun and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) programme, see www.swera.net

© Wind Power Works

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


39


Aoding o Pakisan’s Alnaiv engy Dvlopmn

boad, wind pow os a hnial ponial o 360 GW,

and his is suppod y gus om SWerA, whih sima

a 349.3 GW ponial.

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr nOn-Oecd aSia

Aoss h whol gion, 78 MW o nw apaiy was in-

salld in 009, and h oal sood a 475 MW a h nd o

h ya.

Und h rn snaio, h spd o wind pow

dvlopmn will no inas susanially in non-OecD

Asia, and h annual mak aoss his vas gion will gow

o jus 50 MW y 015 and 500 MW y 00, inging h

oal insalld apaiy o 4.3 GW y 00. tha, h

annual mak will inas gadually o 1,150 GW, whih

would sul in a oal apaiy o 15.6 GW y 030.

Givn h xlln wind sous in som o h Asian

ounis, and n govnmn iniiaivs o hlp xploi-

ing hm, h Moda snaio dsis a mo posiiv

dvlopmn. Mo han ,500 o nw wind apaiy would

insalld in h gion vy ya y 015, and his would

gadually inas o a pa o 19.5 GW vy ya y 030.

th sul would a oal insalld apaiy o 4. GW y

00, and 10.3 GW y 030 – naly 8 ims h siz o h

rn snaio.

th din in ms o pow podud and onsqunly

cO2 savings would onsidal. Whil und h r-

n snaio, wind ngy would podu only 10 tWh y

00 and sav 6.3 million ons o cO2, h Moda sna-

io would ahiv a poduion o 59 tWh in his imam,

hy saving h missions o 35.6 ons o cO2 vy ya.

this would gow o los o 300 tWh y 030 and savings o

177 million ons o cO2.

eonomially, also, suh a dvlopmn would hav a on-

sidal impa. by 015, wind ngy ould aa aound

€3 illion woh o invsmn o h gion vy ya, and

a aound 40,000 jos.

th Advand snaio assums ha un os o

pomo nwal ngy a innsid, fing govn-

mns’ aim o making h mos o h naual wind sous

and aping h lad ns. this would aa annualinvsmns in h gion o €8-10 million ov h ous o

h snaio piod, and a 150,000 jos.

I is in his snaio ha wind pow would sa o mak a

small u noial oniuion o h gion’s liiy

supply. A oal insalld apaiy o 0 GW would podu

aound 50 tWh o lan pow y 015, and his would is

o 55 GW gnaing 134 tWh only v yas la. by 030,

h insalld apaiy would inas o 140 GW, wih an an-

nual pow poduion o 345 tWh.

3 http://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2006/11118-Pakistan-renewable-energy-development

nOn-Oecd aSia: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 2009-2030

[MW] Reference

Moderate

Advanced

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000140,000

160,000

y r Mot a

009 475 475 475

010 575 709 709

015 1,85 11,393 0,8

00 4,35 4,04 54,813030 15,575 10,313 140,46

© EDP Renovavies

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


40


Oecd eo

Whil individual maks wihin his goup o ounis may

mov a din as om ya o ya, h ovall nd

has n on o sady upwad gowh. 10.5 GW o nw wind

pow w addd duing 009, inging h oal insalld

apaiy o 75.5 GW, whih, in a nomal ya, an x-

pd o gna aou 16.5 tWh o liiy. this would

aoun o wn 4% and 5% o his gion’s dmand

o li pow. In oh 008 and 009, mo nw wind

gnaing apaiy was addd han any oh yp o pow

gnaing plan, inluding naual gas.

Spain and Gmany main h wo lags annual ma-

ks o wind pow, omping ah ya o h op spo

(,459 MW and 1,917 MW o nw insallaions spivly

in 009), ollowd y Ialy (1,114 MW), Fan (1,088 MW),

and h UK (1,077 MW). A uh h ounis (Pougal,

Swdn, tuky) ah insalld aou 500 MW in 009. boh

tuky and Poland a now saing o dvlop apidly.

elvn o hs ounis now hav mo han 1 GW ah o

oal insalld wind ngy apaiy, whil on mo is jus

low h 1 GW mak.

OFFShOre Wind

euop is pioning h dvlopmn o osho wind,

whih is s o om a mainsam ngy sou in is

own igh. In 009, 58 MW o osho wind was insalld in

h eU, up 56% on h pvious ya. cumulaiv apaiy in-

asd o GW. th main maks in 009 w h Unid

Kingdom and Dnmak, u sval ohs now also hav

osho wind pow insallaions. by July 010, euop washom o 948 osho wind uins in 43 ully opaional

osho wind ams, wih a oal apaiy o ,396 MW. In

h s hal o 010 alon, 118 nw osho wind uins

had n ully onnd o h gid, aoding o h euo-

pan Wind engy Assoiaion (eWeA). ths nw uins

hav a omind apaiy o 333 MW, whih is samn o

oninuing song gowh in osho wind pow dspi h

nanial isis. In addiion, eWeA pod ha a uh 151

uins (440 MW) had n insalld hough no y on-

nd o h gid. A h sa o 010, i was simad ha

1,000 MW o nw osho wind would insalld in euop

duing h ya, psning wn 9% and 10% o h

gion’s aniipad 010 wind mak.

Diving h gowh o wind pow in euop (a las o eU

mm sas) up o 010 w a Kyoo-ld ag o %

o liiy supply o om om nwals y 010 and

ouny y ouny suppo masus nouagd y h

001 eU rnwal engy Diiv. this has now n

xndd ino a nw ag o 0% o nal ngy onsump-

ion aoss all eU ounis o gnad y nwal

sous y 00. th nw ag is inding on all 7 mm

sas, ah o whih has a din pnag ag d-

pnding on is nwal ngy sou and on h lvl o

is xising nwals dvlopmn. Many ounis in eu-

op hav inodud d-in ais o simula h gowh

o wind pow and oh nwal ngy hnologis.

gerMany

Wind pow is h lading nwal ngy sou in

Gmany, and povids aound 7% o h ouny’s liiy

onsumpion. Insalld apaiy ahd 5,777 MW a h

nd o 009, on a pa wih china as h sond lags wind

pow mak a h US. On o Gmany’s dal sas

(Low Saxony) has almos 6.5 GW o wind insallaions, and

sval sas now iv ov 40% o hi liiy om

wind.

Gmany’s un naional ag is o 5%–30% o

liiy o om om all nwals, mainly wind, y

00; u Gmany’s wind mak has alady had song

govnmn nouagmn o wo dads. A law s

inodud in 1991 (wih a majo vision in 000) inluds a

guaand d-in ai o all nwal pow gnaos.

consqunly h so has dvlopd sadily, and Gman

uin manuaus a among h mak lads, wih

a gloal mak sha o 30%. th so unly mploysmo han 100,000 popl, aoding o h Gman Wind

engy Assoiaion (bWe).

Alhough Gmany’s insallaion a has slowd down, i

sill holds ouh pla gloally in ms annual wind pow

addiions. th mak is poisd o pik up again as h as h

osho so is dvlopd. Gmany go o o a slow sa

in h ld o osho wind du o si planning qui-

mns whih sipula ha osho wind ams nd o

uil a long disan om sho. 009 saw h insallaion o

Gmany’s s osho wind am, h 60 MW Alpha Vnus

s ld, whih onsiss o wlv 5 MW uins.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


41


A uh impus am in h om o visd d-in ais

in Januay 009, whih inasd h as o onsho wind

and addd a spial onus o ‘powing’ – h plamn

o uins agd 10 yas o mo wih ons a las doul

h oupu, ih a h sam si o a nighouing on.

Osho pojs w also givn impovd d-in ais,

wih sval onuss availal.

Spain

th Spanish wind ngy mak has sn mndous

gowh, and h ouny ld euop in 009 wih .46 GW o

nw insallaions, aking oal wind apaiy up o 19.1 GW.this mad wind pow Spain’s hid-lags pow gnaion

hnology (hind omind yl gas and nula pow):

36. tWh w gnad y wind in 009, whih m 14.5%

o h ouny’s liiy dmand.

Spain is hom o som lading innaional wind pow

ompanis, inluding Idola rnovals (h wold’s lag-

s wind am own), Aiona and Gamsa. Wind ngy has

povn o a ky div o onomi dvlopmn, aing

ov 41,000 jos and €3.8 illion in GDP in 008.

Howv, du o nw lgislaion adding onsidal om-

plxiy and dlays o wind am appoval, and a lowing o

h pmium gand o wind pow, uu mak dvlop-

mns a lss han ain.

Pio o ha dvlopmn, h Spanish Wind engy Assoia-

ion (Aee) had simad ha 40,000 MW o onsho and

5,000 MW o osho apaiy ould opaing y 00,

poviding los o 30% o Spain’s liiy. I is unla

now i hs pojions, o vn h govnmn ag o1,000 MW in insalld wind pow apaiy y h nd o

010, will m.

iTaly

th las w yas hav sn al gowh in Ialy’s wind so

– h 1.1 GW o nw apaiy insalld duing 009 ook h

oal o 4.85 GW, and h Ialian Wind engy Assoiaion

(ANeV) simas ha 6 tWh o liiy w gnad

om wind pow duing 009. th ouny is wll on is

way o ahiving is 00 naional ag o 1 GW o wind

pow, and ANeV simas ha as muh 16. GW o wind

apaiy ould insalld y hn.

Holding ak dvlopmn a issus o gional planning, s-

pially ov landsap issus, and gid onnion diulis

main unsolvd – h so is waiing o a suual solu-

ion ha will mak Ialy’s gid mo suial o h onn-

ion o wind pow. In som aas duing 009, wind ams

hav had hi oupu uaild y 30%, som vn 70%, as

h inadqua gid ould no op wih h oupu. Som

opaos a alling o ompnsaion o hi los inom.

Wind pow is oing inasd mploymn oppouniis.

In 008, 15,15 popl w mployd in Ialy’s wind so,

4,430 o hm mployd dily, h maind in assoi-

ad jos suh as anspo o aouning. I Ialy ahsh indusy goal o 16. GW y 00, h so would

mploying 66,000 popl, wih 19,000 o hm in di

mploymn.

France

Fan has good wind sous, and euop’s sond-lags

wind ponial. Alhough h ouny had a la sa, wind

pow dvlopmn has n apid ov h pas dad.

Whil only 30 MW o wind pow apaiy was insalld in

000, y h nd o 009 h oal apaiy was up o naly

4.5 GW, wih almos 1.1 GW addd in 009, whih aound

o 41% o all h nw pow gnaion plan insalld ha

ya. th 7.8 tWh gnad y wind pow duing 009

aound o only 1.6% o h ouny’s pow onsump-

ion, u his is sill wny ims mo han six yas ago.

I mains o sn i h dploymn o wind pow will

apid nough o Fan o m is 00 ojiv o

nwal ngy supplying 3% o is nal ngy dmand,

a qua o whih is poisd o om om wind pow.

th Fnh govnmn has s a ag o ahiving 5 GW

o wind apaiy y 00, 19 GW o whih onsho and 6 GW

osho. th inim ag o 01 is o 11.5 GW (10.5 GW

onsho and 1 GW osho). As y, Fan has sn no

osho wind dvlopmns, u h govnmn is planning

a poss o h alls o nd in 010, 01 and 014, h

s o whih will o a oal apaiy o 3 GW. A onsul-

aion poss on zoning o osho wind dvlopmns

should ompld y h nd o Spm 010.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


4

uniTed kingdOM

Vy slow o ma wind dvlopmns on a lag sal,

h Unid Kingdom mak has nally akn o oh on

and osho. th UK was h wold lad in nw osho

apaiy in oh 008 and 009 (wih 198 MW and 306 MW,

spivly), and in 009, o h s im, h UK insalld

ov a gigawa o nw wind apaiy, aking is oal o

4.05 GW. Wih a halhy poj piplin, h wind and

main pow assoiaion rnwal UK (omly h biish

Wind engy Assoiaion) xps aou 10 GW o nw

pojs o uil y h nd o 01.

th UK has a ag o sou 15% o is nal ngy on-sumpion om nwals y 00. this will qui aou

35% o h UK’s liiy o om om nwals, and

wind pow is xpd o play a majo pa in ahiving his.

Govnmn ags a o 13–14 GW o nw onsho wind

y 00, whil suial sis o up o 50 GW osho hav

n idnid.

Alhough a d-in ai o nwal ngy insallaions up

o 5 MW was inodud in Apil 010, h xising ‘rnw-

al Oligaion’ shm o lag wind was mainaind. this

am ino in Apil 00 and quis all pow suppli-

s o nsu ha a ain pnag o h liiy hy

supply oms om nwal sous.

pOland

Wih xlln wind spds in muh o h ouny, Poland is

on o easn euop’s mos pomising wind maks. toal

insallaions w 74.6 MW a h nd o las ya, inluding

181 MW o nw apaiy addd in 009.

Havily dpndn on oal pow o is liiy, Poland

nds – in od o m eU ags – 15% o is nal ngy

onsumpion o om om nwal ngy y 00, up

om 7.% in 005. In 005, h Polish govnmn ino-

dud a song oligaion o all ngy supplis o sou

a pnag o hi supply om nwal ngy sous.

In pai howv, I has no n igoously nod.Now h a as ha nw lgislaion, whih am ino

o in Mah 010, migh inadvnly pu wind am d-

vlops a a disadvanag and disouag wind invsmn.

th Polish govnmn is unly woking on a nw amnd-

mn o h engy Law ha will implmn h povisions

o h nw eU rnwals Diiv, wih h ojiv o

adoping i y h nd o 010.

th Polish Wind engy Assoiaion is xping dynami

gowh. I has alulad ha 13 GW ould insalld in

Poland y 00, wih 11 GW onsho, 1.5 GW osho and

600 MW o small wind. Howv, i is no xpd ha

osho will ak o unil la in ha piod, aound 018.

Lak Osowo wind am, Poland© Wind Power Works

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


43


Turkey

tuky’s pow onsumpion is inasing y 8% o 9% ah

ya. As i has vy limid oil and gas svs, h ouny

is looking o nwal ngy as a mans o impoving is

ngy suiy and indpndn om impos. And as

h ouny ppas o join h euopan Union and m

aon duion ags, i is oming muh mo awa o

is wind pow ponial.

009 saw h insallaion o 343 MW o nw wind pow,

inging oal apaiy up o 801 MW. Addiion o a uh

500 MW is xpd in 010.

th has n a hug spons o govnmn alls o

nd, making valuaion slow. by aly 010 almos 3 GW

o pojs had n linsd y h auhoiis, and i is

xpd ha h maind o h nds ivd o

Novm 007 will possd soon. Lins o a uh

10 GW a shduld o gand wihin h nx v

yas, 15 GW wihin n yas, and 0 GW in h long m.

Howv, xps auion ha tuky’s ansmission gid will

nd susanial upgading i wind pow on his sal is o

aommodad.

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr Oecd eurOpe

Givn h lvl o mauiy o som euopan maks, h

poliis alady in pla, and h ponial o ohs in h

gion, i is supising ha h rn snaio as pu

owad y h Innaional engy Agny aniipas ha

annual maks alady pakd in 009 a 10.3 GW, and will

om now on s a dlin, alling o 9 GW y 00 and un-

d 5 GW y 030. this would sul in lvls o invsmndasing om €14. illion in 010 o €11.3 illion in 00

and a m €5.9 illion in 030. A ha lvl, wind pow

would y 030 podu 573.5 tWh and sav h mission o

344 million onns o cO2 ah ya.

Wihin h Moda snaio, h annual mak ov

h nx dad up o 00 is xpd o gow a a mo

halhy a, om 10.3 GW in 009 o 4. GW, wih annual

invsmns in h wind so inasing om €14 illion

o €9. illion. tha sady nd would nsu ha wind

pow would dliv aou 615 tWh o liiy o h

gion ah ya y 00. by 030, los o 450 GW would

podu mo han 1,000 tWh o li pow in his gion

vy ya, saving h mission o ov 650 million onns o

cO2 annually.

Insing h is h onas wn hs s wo s-

naios whn i oms o mploymn. th rn snaio

ss mploymn pak aly, in 015, y whn h so

would mploying jus und 00,000 popl aoss eu-

op, hn dopping o o 136,000 y 030. In h Moda

snaio, howv, a long, susaind gowh uv shows

an xpansion o jos wn 010 and 00, y whn h

wind so would mploy los o 400,000 popl in euop

alon.

I you ous on h 00 and 030 gus, h gap wn

h Moda snaio and h Advand snaio sms lss

ponound han in h modls o som o h oh gions.

Howv, a ompaison shows ha, in an idal wold, euop

ould go vn a sp uh in xploiing is wind sous.

by 00, h Advand snaio oass a oal apaiy o

los o 300 GW, wih annual maks unning sadily a

aound 4 GW wn 00 and 030. this would igg

annual invsmns o aound €6 illion y 030 and a

woko o 460,000 popl would mployd y h

wind so a ha im. In ms o liiy gnaion

and suling cO2 savings, h Advand snaio also shows

wha ould ahivd: wind pow would gna los o

1,300 tWh o liiy vy ya, whil avoiding h mis-

sion o 760 million ons o cO2 vy ya in 030.

Oecd eurOpe: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 2009-2030

[MW] Reference

Moderate

Advanced

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

y r Mot a

009 75,565 75,565 75,565

010 85,696 86,175 87,140

015 138,596 150,049 163,109

00 183,996 50,84 93,963030 33,796 447,43 514,806

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


44

Oecd not am

Noh Amia as dnd y h IeA inluds canada, h

USA and Mxio, and hus inluds a vaiy o gogaphi

aas. Som o hs, spially h plains and oaslins,

hav xlln wind sous.

The uniTed STaTeS

th pas dad has sn nomous gowh in h US wind

pow. bak in 000, slighly mo han .5 GW had n in-

salld. by h nd o 009, ha had isn o a wold-lading

insalld apaiy o mo han 35 GW.

Howv, ha gowh has nv n sady. Fo asons

ha on sm o hav mo o do wih Washingon poliis

han poliial will, naional poliy has n sho-m and

inonsisn, wih h indusy (spially in h s v

yas o h dad) ih spding o ah h gn

ligh, o aking had. Alhough h las w yas hav

sn mo sailiy, as his po is ing win (la July

010) h Amian Wind engy Assoiaion (AWeA) has

annound ha wind pow insallaions in h s hal o

010 (139 MW) hav doppd y 71% ompad wih h

sam piod in 009 (in oal, 009 saw h addiion o a

massiv 10 GW o nw wind) and y 57% ompad wih h

s hal o 008. Howv, dspi a song piplin and a

sligh inas in uin ods in h sond qua, 010

will oninu o ad y h low lvl o ods in h

immdia amah o h onomi isis as wll as a dop

in liiy dmand.

Wind pow now gnas los o % o US liiy

nds, u xps sima ha wih h igh poliis inpla, h ponial is muh ga. And wih h US engy

Inomaion Adminisaion alulaing ha h ouny

nds h addiion o 89 GW o nw pow gnaing apa-

iy y 030, lagly o pla aging pow plans, wind an

mak a powul oniuion.1

In 008, h US Dpamn o engy lasd a gound-

aking po, nding ha wind pow ould povid 0%

o US liiy y 030. A mo n analysis o wind

ingaion in h easn gion o h ouny dw simila

onlusions, whil a nw assssmn om h Naional

rnwal engy Laoaoy pulishd in Fuay 010

showd ha onsho US wind sous ould gna

naly 37 million GWh annually, mo han nin ims u-

n oal US liiy onsumpion.

thiy-six US sas now hav uiliy-sal wind ams, and 14

o hs hav ov 1 GW in opaion. txas lads, wih ov

9 GW o wind pow, o whih .3 GW w nw insalla-

ions in 009 (inluding h wold’s lags wind am, h

67-uin, 781.5 MW roso wind am). Iowa, calionia,

Washingon sa and Minnsoa ollow in ms o insalld

apaiy, wih Iowa iving 14% o is 009 liiy

onsumpion om wind.

th US wind mak has had wo poliy simuli o som

yas. A h naional lvl h has n a Poduion

tax cdi (wih ai ms/xnsions); whil a gowing

num o sas ollowd h txan xampl y inoduing

a sa rnwal engy Sandad (reS), quiing a ain

pnag o pow in h sa o om om nwal

sous (wih wind gnally poviding h majoiy o his).

twny-igh sas unly opa an reS (somims

known as an rPS).

In Fuay 009 a pakag o masus w inodud as

pa o h Amian rovy and rinvsmn A: xn-

sion o h Ptc o 01; an opion o iv an invsmn

di ax insad o h Ptc; ax dis o nw wind manu-

auing ailiis; a 6 illion USD nwal ngy loan

guaan pogamm. togh hs w vy nial in

mainaining momnum in h so duing h 008–009

onomi downun.

Howv, o susain h gowh ov a long piod, inaswind ngy manuauing jos, and solidiy wind’s pla in

h US ngy mak, h US wind indusy is sking a na-

ional nwal ngy sandad (reS). this would simula

uiliis o uy wind pow and onlud pow puhas

agmns, whih a unly diul o oain, du o h

dop in ovall liiy dmand, low naual gas pis,

and h asn o a la naional nwal ngy poliy.

th is sill som han ha suh a masu ould

adopd o h nd o 010.


1 US Energy Inormation Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010. May 2010. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oia/aeo/aeore_tab.html, Table 9.2 US Department o Energy: 20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy’s Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply. May 2008.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


45

Anoh poliy issu ha nds o addssd is h gula-

oy suu o ansmission. Nw ansmission is ndd

o onn h good wind sis wih owns and iis – a

psn planning, naning and pmiing a slow and

diul posss and aoding o AWeA, many nw wind

pow pojs a on hold in h Unid Sas du o ans-

mission limiaions.

A h nd o 009 h US wind indusy mployd 85,000

popl, and h igh lading supplis o uins o h US

mak hav ih salishd manuauing ailiis o an-

nound plans o do so. Ge Wind supplid ov 46% o nw

uins insalld duing 009, wih svn ohs supplying

wn 4% and 1% ah.3

Alhough h Unid Sas has y o n h osho wind

so, h 40 MW cap Wind poj o h Massahuss

oas won nal appoval in Apil 010, and h a a num-

o pojs a din sags o dvlopmn, inluding

in h Ga Laks.

canada

canada has an immns wind sou, and is wind pow

apaiy has gown nold in wn 004 and nd o

009, a ya duing whih 950 MW was insalld. canada

was a laivly slow sa so h oal insalld apaiy a

h nd o 009 was 3.3 GW – y his is suin o povid

1.1% o h ouny’s liiy.

eah o h povins now has som wind insalld, and nw

govnmn pow puhas agmns o a las six

povins in 010 should nsu a od-aking ya. th

canadian Wind engy Assoiaion (canWeA) in is ‘WindVi-

sion 05’ doumn ss a goal o poduing 0% o mo

o h ouny’s liiy om wind pow y 05.

canada’s lading povin in ms o wind pow is Onaio,

wih 1,168 MW o wind insalld and a uh 647 MW undona a h nd o 009. Onaio’s Gn engy A, an-

nound in 009, inodud a d-in ai o wind pow,

wih nhand ais o ommuniy pojs and ‘Fis

Naions’ (i.. Naiv Amian) pojs, and a high a o

osho wind.

th Onaio Pow Auhoiy has a plan ha alls o 4.6 GW

o wind ngy y 00, and many oh povins hav

signd onas o xpand hi wind ngy apaiy duing

010 and yond.

A dal lvl h is disappoinmn aou h govn-

mn’s dision no o xnd canada’s oeNerGY dal3 BTM Consult: World Market Update 2030. March 2010.

Hos Hollow wind am, Unid Sas© Wind Power Works

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


46

innivs. I was annound in Mah 010 ha h oeN-

erGY pogamm – s up in 007 o suppo h onsu-

ion o ov 4 GW o nwal ngy pojs – had alady

alload all o is unding and would suppoing no wind

ngy pojs uil a Mah 011. th onn is ha

his would mak canada lss aaiv o invsos han is

souhn nighou.

MexicO

Mxio, oo, has an ousanding wind sou, spially in

h Oaxaa gion. In 009, Mxio’s insalld wind apaiy

mo han dould, adding 117 MW o nw apaiy o h

85 MW ha w opaing a h nd o 008, inging h

oal insalld wind pow apaiy o 0 MW. this inas

was h sul o wo piva sl-supply pojs ough on-

lin in 009, ‘Paqus eológios d Méxio’ (79.9 MW) and

h s phas o h ‘euus’ poj (37.5 MW). th s halo 010 saw h addiion o a uh 300 MW. A psn,

howv, hadly any o Mxio’s wind pow maks is way

ino h naional gid. rah, i is usd on-si y sl gna-

os, suh as havy indusy. th govnmn is suggling o

om up wih a gulaoy amwok ha ould ally opn

up h vy susanial sous in h ouny.

though i is h Oaxaa gion ha has sn mos dvlop-

mn so a, h baja gion also has good ponial and is

aaing h y o ponial dvlops om h US.

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr Oecd nOrTh aMerica

Wihin his gion w a looking a h h disin

maks o h Unid Sas, canada and Mxio. And wih

h vaious sas and povins having poliis o hi own,

h is ponially mo vaiailiy h han in h singl

mak o china, o insan.

Ou h possil pojions sa wih 010, and h r-

n snaio pdis laivly mods gowh o 6.5 GW

(as ompad wih h aual gu o 11 GW addd duing

009), whil h Moda and Advand snaios anii-

pa addiion o aou 11 GW o 010.

In a h rn snaio aniipas a fa mak o

som 6 GW p ya, aoss Noh Amia, o h nx

oupl o dads, slowing o 3.5 GW y 030. this is on-

sidaly lss han h US Dpamn o engy pojions

o annual maks ahing 16 GW y 018 and sailising

a his a, in h US alon, no vn ouning gowh in

canada and Mxio.

th rn snaio nums would sul in a oal wind

pow apaiy o 141 GW y 030, whih would podu

346 tWh o liiy and sav h mission o 07.6 mil-

lion onns o cO vy ya. Jos in h so would pak

n yas om now, whn h indusy would mploy und

90,000 popl.

Howv, h alnaiv snaios show wind aking a muh

mo signian ol aoss his oninn. evn h Mod-

a snaio shows ha y 00, h annual mak o

nw wind insallaions ould mo han wi h siz o

h od-aking 009 mak, and y 030 wind powwould poduing ov a housand awa hous o l-

iiy p ya whil saving h mission o ov 600 million

onns o cO ah ya – h ims ha in h rn

snaio. Und his snaio, invsmns in wind pow

would pak aound 00, ahing som US$37 illion p

ya, u hn ailing o.

I h Advand snaio ould alisd, all hs gus

would dwad: massiv cO savings o ov 1,000 million

onns would mad ah ya y 030, h so would

mploying 700,000 popl, and wind pow alon would

poviding 1,700 tWh o liiy p ya aoss Noh

Amia.


Oecd nOrTh aMerica: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 2009-2030

[MW] Reference

Moderate

Advanced

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000700,000

800,000

y r Mot a

009 38,585 38,585 38,585

010 45,085 49,39 49,648

015 75,585 119,190 140,440

00 106,085 0,041 303,38030 141,085 410,971 693,958

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


47

Oecd pf

th gogaphis and populaions o h ou ounis

ovd h – Ausalia, Nw Zaland, Japan and Koa – a

vy din. Sid in din hmisphs, and spaad

y mils o Pai Oan (Souh Koa and Nw Zaland

a n housand kiloms apa) wha hy hav in om-

mon is high p apia ngy onsumpion, and all xp

Koa hav mission duion oligaions und h Kyoo

Poool.

auSTralia

Hisoially, Ausalia has lid havily on oal and hydo

o is li pow. Y i has som o h wold’s s

wind (and sola) sous. th oal opaing wind apaiy

a h nd o 009 was 1,71 MW, 406 MW o whih was

insalld ha ya. Aoding o h clan engy counil,

in mid-010, h ouny was hos o mo han 1,000 wind

uins spad ov 5 wind ams gnaing aound 5 tWh

o liiy p ya.

A h nd o 009, naly hal o h ouny’s wind apa-

iy (aound 740 MW) was load in Souh Ausalia, and a

uh 48 MW in Vioia. Howv, h a unly

ov 7 GW o lag-sal wind am ngy pojs poposd

aound h ouny, many o hm having alady ivd

planning pmission.

Diving his gowh is Ausalia’s xpandd rnwal engy

tag (ret) Shm. this was passd y h dal palia-

mn in Augus 009 and mandas 0%, o Ausalia’s

liiy supply (o 45 tWh) o soud om nwal

ngy y 00. A uh vision in Mah 010 inoduda nw ag o lag-sal nwals o 10.4 tWh y

011, inasing gadually ah ya o 18 tWh y 015 and

41 GWh y 00. Ahiving his ag will man h addiion

o aound 10 GW o nw nwal ngy apaiy in h

oming dad, wih wind pow likly o play a lading ol.

neW zealand

Nw Zaland has aundan nwal ngy sous, and

nwals supply 73% o h ouny’s liiy (55%

lag hydo, 15% gohmal and 3% wind). Ovall, wih

a populaion o only aou 4.5 million, h ouny’s oal

insalld pow gnaion apaiy sands a jus lss han

10 GW, u liiy dmand is gowing and h a plans

o phas ou 500 MW o oal-d gnaion.

Nw Zaland’s wind sou is so ih ha, aoding o

a sudy ompld o h eliiy commission (Nw

Zaland’s liiy mak gulao), wind pow ould

ponially m annual dmand sval ims ov.

th Nw Zaland govnmn has a ag o nwal

ngy o supply 90% o h ouny’s liiy y 05,

whih is aing good oppouniis o wind, spially as

wind pow and hydo omin so ivly. Wihin 0

yas, wind pow’s sha o Nw Zaland’s liiy supply

ould ponially gow om 3% o 0%. Duing 009 Nw

Zaland’s insalld wind apaiy xpandd om 35 MW o

497 MW.

SOuTh kOrea

Souh Koa is h wold’s nh-lags onsum o ngy,

and is gnhous gas missions hav dould sin 1990,

paly hough h havy us o oal. Koa’s liiy gn-

aing apaiy has inasd y 50% ov h pas dad,

and now sands a 73 GW, mos o whih is oal, naual gas

and nula pow, and an addiional 3.4 GW a plannd

o om opaional y 0, inluding 1 nula, 11 LNG

and svn oal plans.

‘Nw’ nwals only povid aound 0.5% o all liiy

gnad, aoding o Koa’s eli Pow copoaion

(KePcO). 009 saw h insallaion o 11 MW o nw wind


Woolnoh wind am, tasmania, Ausalia© Wind Power Works

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


48

pow, inging h oal apaiy o 348 MW. Howv,

Souh Koa has a ag o nwals o povid 11% o

h ouny’s pimay ngy (no jus liiy) y 030.

A nw ill was passd in Mah 010 ha quis uiliis o

inas h un sha o nwal ngy in hi oal

pow gnaion (xluding lag hydo) om h un

1% o 4% y 015, gowing o 10% y 0.

Wind pow dvlopmn in Koa will also ailiad y

h a ha sval majo innaional ompanis inluding

Samsung, Dawoo and Hyundai hav nly nd h

wind usinss.

japan

Japan’s pow so is dividd wn nula, oal and

(mosly impod) naual gas. Whil dmand is xpd o

main aily sady in h sho o mdium m, h shao din oms o pow gnaion is likly o shi, as

som oal-d gnaion is likly o phasd ou in h

oming dads as Japan is aiming o u is cO2 missions

y 5% in 00 ompad wih 1990 lvls. Howv, Japan

is ousing mo havily on xpanding is nula pow

gnaion han nwals o ahiv his, and is ag o

liiy om non hydo nwals is 1.63% y 014.

Japan’s oial govnmn ag o wind pow y 010

was 3,000 MW, and y h nd o 009, ,056 MW o

hs had n insalld. Wih h pa o nw insallaions

slowing down onsidaly in n yas du o hnial,

gulaoy and gid onnion polms, i sms unlikly

ha his ag will ahivd.

Dspi a suggling domsi mak, Japan’s wind uin

manuau Misuishi Havy Indusy has om a

signian xpo and in 009 had aou 1.5% o h gloal

mak.

The gWeO ScenariOS FOr Oecd paciFic

Givn h divsiy o h ou ounis ovd, i is woh

dawing a quik sid-y-sid ompaison:

Japan has a massiv pow so mak – ov h ims

h siz o Koa’s, v ims h siz o Ausalia’s, and 5

ims h siz o Nw Zaland’s. So a, Japan has his goup’s

highs insalld wind apaiy, a .1 GW, u is dvlop-

mn is slowing down, whil Ausalia is moving owadapidly. boh Ausalia and Nw Zaland hav xlln

wind sous, u givn ha Nw Zaland has suh good

hydo and limid pow dmand, h oal mak likly

o dvlopd h is likly o main mods. Koa has

h smalls and youngs wind mak o h ou, u has

sval hom-gown uin manuaus and a plan o

xpand nwal ngy.

th rn snaio o OecD Pai xps wind mak

gowh o dlin unil 015, wih insallaions dopping

om 867 MW in 009 o jus 300 MW p ya y 015. In

h sond hal o h dad, h rn snaio ss

h mak ping ak up so ha, y 030, 009 lvls



Oecd paciFic: cuMulaTive Wind pOWer capaciTy 2009-2030

[MW] Reference

Moderate

Advanced

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030

y r Mot a

009 4,613 4,613 4,613

010 5,318 5,740 5,870

015 6,818 17,303 0,55

00 10,568 37,59 47,876030 18,568 81,159 109,367

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


49

hav n gaind. by 030 h umulaiv apaiy o wind

pow would 18.6 GW, up om 4.6 GW in 009.

th s on oh onomy and lima would maginal,

ompad o hs ounis oal onomi pow. Annual

invsmns would dop y wo-hids om h un

€1. illion o jus €400 million in 015, and will no gain

h 009 lvls unil h nd o h snaio piod.

In ms o lima hang, wind pow would, in his s-

naio, no hlp hs ounis ahiv hi ags – only

15.5 million ons o cO2 would savd vy ya aoss

h whol gion y 00, ompad o 500 million ons u-

nly mid y h Japans liiy so alon.

th Moda snaio shows ha, wih a mo posiiv

opaing amwok, h ould 81 GW o wind powin opaion y 030 – mo han ou ims h rn

snaio’s apaiy – whil h Advand snaio aniipas

109 GW. this is los o h psn oal pow apaiy

(13 GW) o Ausalia and Koa omind, o los o hal o

Japan’s.

Wih 109 GW o wind pow in pla, hs ounis

would podu los o 70 tWh and sav h missions o

161 million onns o cO2 p ya. eonomially, €6.7 illion

woh o invsmn would fow ino hs ounis wind

maks vy ya y 030, and h so would mploy

ov 110,000 popl, ompad wih h 13,700 mployd in

009.


8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


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The WOrld’S Wind reSOurceS

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


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T h e W O r l d ’ S W i n d r e S O u r c e S

Whn valuaing din mhods o pow gnaion

som o h main qusions invialy onn h ul

poposd. Is h nough o i? Is i in h igh plas?

I is availal whn you wan i? Wha dos i os? Wha

missions dos i hav? Wha sidu dos i lav? Fo wind

pow gnaion, wind is o ous h ‘ul’ and hs qus-

ions a as lvan as hy a o any oh sou.

th las o hs qusions has h simpls answ: unlik

uls ha a un, wind is and lan. Qusions aou

how muh wind h is, wh i is o ound, and whn i

is availal, howv, a vy pinn.

On a gloal sal numous sudis onm h nomiy

o h sou, and how i ould hoially m gloal

liiy dmand many ims ov. A n addiion o his

squn is a ollaoaion y sahs a Havad Univ-

siy in h Unid Sas and Vtt in Finland ha onluddha ‘a nwok o land-asd, .5 MW uins, sid o

non-osd, i- and nonuan aas, opaing a as

lil as 0% o hi ad apaiy ould supply mo han

40 ims un woldwid onsumpion o liiy’.1

A slighly ali omphnsiv sudy y sahs om

Sanod Univsiy’s Gloal clima and engy Poj

asd is onlusions on v yas o daa om h US Na-

ional climai Daa cn. Using an xnsiv s o sua

and alloon masumns, hy onludd ha 13% o h

sis sd had a good wind sou (class 3) a 80 ms

o h gound, and using on in v o hs sis o pow

gnaion would allow wind ngy o m h wold’s

liiy dmand (using h gu om h ya 000)

svn ims ov.

Similaly, an ali sudy in 003 y h Gman Advi-

soy counil on Gloal chang alulad ha h gloal

hnial ponial o ngy poduion om oh onsho

and osho wind was 70,000 tWh p ya. Assuming

10%–15% o his was alisal in a susainal ashion, h

suling 39,000 tWh would m mo han doul h u-

n gloal liiy dmand. A liau sah shows up

numous simila sudis wih oadly simila onlusions.3

eah o h sudis vais in is ouom, dpnding on h

assumpions usd. On vaial onns h siz, apaiy

ao and ad pow o h uins usd o simaions

o wind pow ponial. In addiion, h high h uinis mound, h h wind sou. Fuh, high

uins a lss pon o ad y uuln ausd

y osuions, opogaphy, sua oughnss o hmal

s. In addiion, advans in hnology an no only in-

as h apaiy ao o wind uins, u also h ang

o wind spds in whih hy an opa, hus oadning

h ang o sis a whih hy an usd.

Anoh vaial onns assumpions aou h land aas

on whih uins an dployd. Whil mos sudis will

ul ou onsvaion aas, oss and uan sis, som

Hos Hollow wind am, Unid Sas© Wind Power Works

1 Xi Lu, M.B. McElroy and J. Kiviluoma: Global potential or wind-generated electricity. Proceedings o the National Academy o Sciences, 2008. ww.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0904101102 Archer, C.L. and M.Z. Jacobson: Evaluation o global wind power, 2005. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, D12110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005462, 20053 German Advisory Council on Global Change: World in Transition – Towards Sustainable Energy Systems , 2004. h ttp://www.wbgu.de/wbgu _jg2003_engl.pd

Wind am in canada© Nordex

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


5

yps o agiulual land suh as pasus a asily ompa-

il wih wind ams wihou onsaining h ovall wind

ponial o a gion.

Mhodologis o assssing osho wind sous also di-

in ms o h undlying assumpions usd. An assump-

ion nds o mad onning h aas in whih wind ams

an uil, oh o paial asons (maximum disan

o sho, wa dph ), as wll as aking ino aoun n-

vionmnal and gulaoy limiaions (nau sv aas,

shipping lans, minimum disan o sho, ). Som nw

onguaions ha dploy uins on foaing suus and

a hus suial o us in dp wa a a a pliminaysag o s dploymn. ths ould damaially inas

h hnially usal aion o h osho wind ponial.

evidn om a lag num o sudis ino h wold’s wind

sous suggss ha h is no shoag o suial sis

o wind pow dvlopmn. Howv, i is woh noing

ha h a o dploymn o wind pow in ah ouny

has lagly n dpndn on poliial will ah han

sou iia. Gmany has a low wind ponial han

many oh euopan ounis, y is avoual poliial

lima has ld o apid and lag-sal dploymn o wind

pow. On h oh hand, h a numous pas o h

wold wih a good wind sou – plas suh as Agnina,

russia and Souh Aia – wh dvlopmn o wind pow

has aly sad.

Ovall, i is la ha h wind’s ngy os a paially

unlimid, lan and missions pow sou o whih

only a iny aion is unly ing xploid. th may

onns aou ‘Pak Oil’ u ‘Pak Wind’ is no a onp

ha nd woy us!


5 m W M t 80m

© 2010 3Tier Inc. All Rights Reserved.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


53


3 6 9 m/s

W s

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


55

i n T e g r a T i n g W i n d p O W e r i n T O e l e c T r i c i T y S y S T e M S

is t ow sstm

th availailiy o li pow has om a vas nal

o human ings, y has also osd a massiv dpn-

dny. Whil ood and lan wa hav n a undamnal

quimn o millnnia, li pow has om a

n ssnial in homs, aois, os, hospials. Whn

h pow laks ou, ounlss human aiviis now hal in

an insan.

I is qui makal how a h poss o gnaing

liiy has om in h pas 130 yas, sin h invn-

ion o h li gnao and h inandsn lighul nald thomas edison s up h s-v li

ompany. Supplying li lighing o h os o Nw

Yok’s Wall S, his usinss povidd loal gnaion o

loal usoms – a modl ha was pliad in many oh

owns and iis in many pas o h wold. th w no

ansmission lins in hos days, jus small, oal-d sam

gnaos poviding pow on a loal sysm.

Sin hn h sysm has gown in omplxiy and sal. An

xa lvl o omplxiy was addd whn, in h 1980s, h

poss o lializing h li pow indusy gan in

many indusialisd ounis. Gadually his has spaad

h gnaos, h ansmission sysm opaos (tSOs)

who un h high-volag gids, h disiuion svi op-

aos (DSOs) who manag h dlivy o onsum-vol-

ag pow o usoms, and h pow slls. Many pow

ompanis a oh gnaos and ails o liiy.

eliiy is mo o a will o’ h wisp han a ommodiy. I

an’ ‘hld’ somwh in a soag ank o svoi. I is

gnad, and usd, in a sond. tansmission sysm opa-os (tSOs) – who hav lil onol ov dmand – hav

h makal ask o mahing supply o m whav

dmand migh a any momn o h day, o nigh, duing

win and summ alik.

tSOs a lik onduos o h ‘ohsa’ o pow supply,

inging in on sion o h ohsa and quining an-

oh; o a lik onolls o a a a usy and omplx

insion. Wha hy a doing is mahing supply o d-

mand – wihou v ing asoluly ain wha dmand

will . O ous, onsumpion pans hav n odd

and analysd, so h tSOs know oadly wha o xp, and

whn. Foasing o dmand has om a sophisiad

usinss, spially as i also undlis h pis a whih

liiy is ough and sold.

Lag sal oal and nula plans a usually 500-

1,000 MW o mo, and hav lil fxiiliy in hi oupu

– gadlss o h dmand. Hydo is supmly onollal,

onsanly ‘willing’ o las h vas ngy o wa ha

wans o oy h law o gaviy, u wih h supply o wa

o is uins ully adjusal. Gas-d gnaion an also

o a quik spons o mah dmand.

I is h paks o pow dmand ha a ikis o tSOs

o handl. In od o mainain volag wihin h sysmhy may hav o all on vy availal sou, spially

i nighouing opaos hav no spa pow ha an

ough in via h ‘inonnos’ wn din gid

sysms. this an man inging som plan ou o smi--

imn, o alling on disl gnao ss. this ‘paking’ o

‘pak’ pow an on mos among h mos polluing,

and xpnsiv o un. In opn maks i an also ommand a

high pi.

d wt w ms’ b ow ott

Pow oupu om an individual wind uin o wind am

vais ov im, dpnding on h wah ondiions. th

a ha wind oupu vais is no isl a polm, povidd

ha good inomaion is availal in advan o pdi how

muh pow wind ams will poduing a any givn im.

Pdiailiy, y mans o aua oasing, is an ssn-

ial ool o h sussul ingaion o wind pow ino h

li pow sysm.

exnsiv valuaion and modlling is aid ou o a

wind am is uil. tha povids a ga dal o inoma-

ion aou wha hs wind plans will dliv on a sasonal

o monhly asis. this is inod on wind ams a in

opaion.

In ounis wih ‘pioiy ass’ o nwal ngy

podus, suh as Gmany and Spain, tSOs manag h

gid as a whol o nsu ha h sysm an always ap

h maximum oupu om h wind plans in windy piods,

y mainain h pow supply o pow onsums du-

ing lss windy piods. tSOs an now supplid no only

wih sasonal/monhly xpaions, u a ominaion o

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


56


good moologial oasing and sophisiad sowa

nals hm also o hav lial hou-y-hou oass o

availal wind pow. ths a o paiula valu o hi

omplx ask.

Whil h an vaiaions wn oas and aual,

his is o ous also h as on h dmand sid. Any

pow sysm is infund y a lag num o plannd

and unplannd aos, u hy hav n dsignd o op

ivly wih hs vaiaions hough hi onguaion,

onol sysms and inonnion.

On h dmand sid, hangs in wah maks popl

swih on o o hi haing, ooling and lighing, and

millions o onsums xp insan pow o hai dys,

washing mahins and tVs – somims all a h sam im

suh as duing a popula tV pogamm.

On h supply sid, also, h a vaiaions, and no only

om nwal ngy sous. Whn a lag pow saion

suddnly shus down, whh y aidn o o main-

nan, his auss h immdia loss o many hundds o

mgawas o apaiy. Wih wind pow, whih is podud

y hundds o housands o individual wind uins ah

han a w lag pow saions, suh suddn dops should

nv ou, and signian vaiaions should oas

and plannd o. this maks i asi o sysm opaos o

pdi and manag h hangs in supply.

Gid opaos in a num o euopan ounis, inluding

Spain, Dnmak and Pougal, hav now inodud nal

onol ns ha an monio and manag inly h

ni naional f o wind uins. thanks o a omina-

ion o hnology, oasing and tSO xpis, in som

pas o euop wind pow is ouinly poviding 30% o

h liiy supply, and a ims his gos a high. In

wsn Dnmak, and in pas o Gmany, wind has a ims

povidd mo han 100% o dmand, maning ha ‘spa’

liiy gnad om wind has n availal o xpo

o nighouing gid sysms.

In addiion, lag, inonnd gids lssn h ovall

impa i h wind sops lowing in on paiula pla. th

ida o nw li ‘suphighways’, suh as h ‘supgid’poposd o ap ino h vas osho wind sou in noh-

n euop and link hs ounis’ liiy gids wih h

ni oninn, would damaially hlp o smooh ou h

vaial oupu o h individual wind uins.

A qun misundsanding onning wind pow las

o h amoun o ‘ak up’ gnaion apaiy quid

o alan h vaiailiy o wind pow in a sysm. th

addiional alaning oss assoiad wih lag-sal wind

ingaion nd o amoun o lss han 10% o wind pow

gnaion oss, dpnding on h pow sysm fxiiliy,

h auay o sho-m oasing and unioning o h

individual pow mak. th o his on h onsum

pow pi is los o zo.1

nw tsmsso s?

Unlss liiy is gnad on-si, om sola, wind,

iogas o small hydo, and is hn usd on-si, som kind

o anspo is ndd – ih o ul (oal, gas, LNG, disl,iomass, nula ul), o o was podus (fy-ash, spn

nula ul), o o h liiy isl.

Som oms o pow gnaion (lag hydo, gohmal)

hav lil fxiiliy in hi siing aus o h nau

o h sou. coal pow is mo fxil – indusy and

pow gnaion hav o som xn gown up aound oal

sous, u mo on h oal isl is anspod y

ship, ail o uk. Naual gas has o pipd – somims

vas disans aoss oninns. Inasingly i is pssuizd

and hn shippd in onains in liquid om as LNG. Nula

ul and was nd spially su anspo. All hs

1 European Wind Energy Association: Wind Energy – The Facts, 2009


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57


oms o anspo and possing add o h os o hos

uls, and o h amoun o aon mid in ging hi

ngy om h gound and o h li plug.

Wind pow an dvlopd in a vy wid ang o loa-

ions, and a many sals – om on o wo uins o

hundds. Opimizing h siing an mak a ig din

o h pow oupu om a wind uin, and his is galy

magnid ov a uin’s opaing liim o 0+ yas.

Howv, as poind ou ali in his ook, up o now h

a o dploymn o wind pow y ouny has lagly

n dpndn on poliial issus ah han sou i-

ia. In Gmany, o insan, a avoual poliial limahas ld o h lag-sal dploymn o wind pow, whil

is wind sou (spially in h n and souh o h

ouny) is low han in som oh euopan ounis wih

muh lss insalld apaiy.

So whil wind pow an wok ivly in many loaions,

i is u ha som gions hav an xlln sou ha

is load away om h owns and iis nding pow (in

a, uly windy loaions hav hisoially n avoidd as

plas o liv). this migh u on a small sal (wsn

txas has xlln wind, u is iis a uh as and

souh) o a lag on (Xinjiang’s xlln wind is many mils

om china’s asn saoad iis). And hn h is h

as o onning lag-sal osho wind wih li-

iy uss. conning hos sous o h loaions wh

pow is ndd dos qui nw lins – jus as nw lins

would ndd o lag hydo, o piplins o gas.

A uh ao o a in mind is ha h pow lins uil

dads ago in som pas o h wold adly nd upgading

o op wih h dmands and siz o oday’s pow so,so invsmn in gid upgads is ndd in any as. th

IeA simas ha y 030, ov 1.8 illion USD will hav o

invsd in ansmission and disiuion nwoks in h

OecD alon. In som pas o h wold – suh as euop –

gid upgads a also a pquisi o h opaion o h

mak wihou onfiing wih lgislaion allowing ompi-

ion.

Y wih all his alk o pow gids and nalizd gn-

aion, i is woh noing ha a high-volag gid is no

always h answ. In many pas o oh h dvlopd and

dvloping wold, h os o uilding ansmission lins o

ah vy pa o h ounis is simply pohiiiv. th

a housands o ommuniis ha h gid may nv ah.

Oasionally high-volag lins vn pass ovhad, usily

on hi way om a lag hydo plan o a ig iy – u h

a no susaions and disiuion nwoks o dliv usal

pow o h popl who liv nah. H wind pow,

somims in ominaion wih oh nwals, an wok

on a small sal, o-gid, o on so-alld mini-gids ha

sv a pok o nd.

T t qt o ow

Anoh asp o a in mind is ha h poman o,

and oupu om, wind uins hamonizs wih h gid’s

quimns and dos no a any disuans o h

sysm. this is nsud y mans o so-alld ‘gid ods’ ha

lay down h paams wihin whih wind uins mus

opa.

Gid ods ov h hnial asps laing o h opa-

ion and us o a ouny’s liiy ansmission sysm.

thy also lay down uls ha dn h ways in whih

gnaing saions onning o h sysm mus opa in

od o mainain gid sailiy.

thnial quimns wihin gid ods vay om sysm o

sysm, u h ypial quimns o gnaos nomally

onn olan (i.. minimum and maximum volag and

quny limis), onol o aiv and aiv pow, po-

iv dvis and pow qualiy. Spi quimns o

wind pow gnaion a hanging as pnaion inass

and as wind pow is saing o union mo lik oh

lag pow plans.

eali gnaions o wind uins w unal o spond

i h was a aul on h nwok, and ould vn aggava

h siuaion. today, howv, modn wind uins on-

iu susanially o h sailiy o h gid. th majoiy

o uins ing insalld oday a apal o ming h

mos sv gid od quimns, wih advand aus

inluding aul-id-hough apailiy. this nals hm o

assis in kping h pow sysm sal whn disupions

ou. Modn wind ams a wind ngy pow plans ha

an aivly onolld and povid gid suppo svis.

2 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008.

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


58

a n n e x

reFerence

Ya cumulaiv[GW]

Gloal Annual Gowhra [%]

– xludingpowing

Annual [MW]inl. powing

capaiyao

[%]

Poduion[tWh]

Wind powpnaion o

world’s ltriity in %rn

007 94 8 19,865 5 06

008 10 36 8,700 5 63

009 159 41 38,343 5 347

010 185 17 6,753 5 406 ,3

015 96 3 0,887 8 75

00 415 4 5,71 8 1,019 4,5

05 494 3 5,841 8 1,1

030 573 3 41,19 8 1,405 4,9

035 653 41,46 8 1,601

040 73 46,6 30 1,95 5,6045 807 46,494 30 ,10

050 880 55,538 30 ,31 5,9

MOderaTe

Ya cumulaiv[GW]


– xludingpowing


capaiyao

[%]

Poduion[tWh]

Wind powpnaion o


007 94 8 19,865 5 06

008 10 36 8,700 5 63

009 159 41 38,343 5 347

010 199 6 40,1 5 435 ,4015 460 17 6,887 8 1,19

00 83 9 88,133 8 ,041 8,9

05 1,74 7 104,391 8 3,15

030 1,778 5 148,416 8 4,360 15,1

035 ,75 4 158,1 8 5,580

040 ,741 3 181,185 30 7,03 0,9

045 3,13 3 08,433 30 8,444

050 3,70 3 14,16 30 9,79 4,7

advanced

Ya cumulaiv[GW]


– xludingpowing


capaiyao

[%]

Poduion[tWh]

Wind powpnaion o


007 94 8 19,865 5 06

008 10 36 8,700 5 63

009 159 41 38,343 5 347

010 0 7 43,63 5 44 ,5

015 533 0 87,641 8 1,308

00 1,071 9 10,135 8 ,68 11,5

05 1,687 6 135,747 8 3,805

030 ,34 4 185,350 8 5,49 18,8

035 ,877 3 185,350 8 6,83040 3,305 185,350 30 8,473 4,6

045 3,678 185,350 30 9,477

050 4,08 185,350 30 10,403 6,4

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


59

a n n e x

reFerence

Ya Wind powpnaion o

world’s ltriity in %– er 010

cO2 duion(wih 600 g

cO2/kWh)[annual Mio cO2]

Avoidd cO2sin 003

[umulaivMio cO2]

capialoss

[€/kW]

Invsmn[€1000]

Jos toal(inluding

O&e)

007 13 406 1,300 5,84,500 39,3

008 158 564 1,350 38,745,000 470,559

009 08 77 1,350 51,763,050 67,97

010 ,3 43 1,016 1,37 35,506,69 46,98

015 435 ,834 1,76 6,649,758 411,801

00 4,8 611 5,539 1,40 31,894,089 54,07

05 77 8,944 1,7 31,714,995 55,33

030 5,6 843 1,98 1,16 50,136,47 809,006

035 960 17,495 1,10 50,11,63 838,677

040 6,9 1,155 3,017 1,04 55,71,355 937,796045 1,7 9,143 1,0 55,881,975 966,089

050 7,3 1,387 35,854 1,00 56,064,31 1,15,967

MOderaTe

Ya Wind powpnaion o


cO2 duion(wih 600 g


Avoidd cO2sin 003

[umulaivMio cO2]

capialoss

[€/kW]

Invsmn[€1000]

Jos toal(inluding

O&e)

007 13 36 1,300 5,84,500 39,3

008 158 51 1,350 38,745,000 470,559

009 08 79 1,350 51,763,050 67,97

010 ,5 61 990 1,39 53,459,495 69,137015 678 3,507 1,58 79,109,03 1,033,71

00 9,5 1,5 8,466 1,08 106,504,89 1,4,874

05 1,875 16,51 1,156 10,639,77 1,676,965

030 17,5 ,616 8,061 1,116 165,691,953 ,37,911

035 3,348 43,37 1,088 17,107,655 ,496,911

040 5,7 4,3 63,516 1,068 193,493,633 ,905,770

045 5,066 87,350 1,051 19,01,60 3,36,69

050 30,6 5,838 114,98 1,036 1,788,479 3,573,838

advanced

Ya Wind powpnaion o


cO2 duion(wih 600 g


Avoidd cO2sin 003

[umulaivMio cO2]

capialoss

[€/kW]

Invsmn[€ 1000]

Jos toal(inluding

O&e)

007 13 406 1,300 5,84,500 39,3

008 158 564 1,350 38,745,000 470,559

009 08 77 1,350 51,763,050 67,97

010 ,5 65 1,037 1,38 57,450,45 67,87

015 785 3,81 1,45 109,07,886 1,404,546

00 1,3 1,577 9,953 1,17 140,76,811 1,918,530

05 ,83 19,667 1,18 153,100,985 ,190,680

030 1,8 3,57 34,07 1,093 0,600,198 3,004,081

035 4,094 5,96 1,059 196,91,917 ,996,955040 30,3 5,084 77,001 1,037 19,191,671 3,139,63

045 5,686 104,56 1,00 189,09,016 3,63,611

050 3,7 6,4 134,363 1,006 186,507,44 3,380,018

8/7/2019 GWEO 2010 Final


aBOuT gWec

glOBal repreSenTaTiOn FOr The Wind energy SecTOr

GWec is h voi o h gloal wind ngy so. GWec ings oghh majo naional, gional and oninnal assoiaions psning h

wind pow so, and h lading innaional wind ngy ompanis

and insiuions. Wih a omind mmship o ov 1,500 oganisaions

involvd in hadwa manuau, poj dvlopmn, pow gnaion,

nan and onsulany, as wll as sahs, aadmis and assoia-

ions, GWec’s mm assoiaions psn h ni wind ngy

ommuniy.

The MeMBerS OF gWec repreSenT:

• Over1,500companies,organisationsandinstitutions

in mo han 70 ounis

• Alltheworld’smajorwindturbinemanufacturers

• 99%oftheworld’sinstalledwindpowercapacity

glOBal Wind energy cOuncil (gWec)

80 ru d’Alon

1040 bussls

blgium

t: 3 13 1897

F: 3 13 1890

www.gw.n

[email protected]

Gnpa is a gloal oganisaion ha uss non-violn di aion o

akl h mos uial has o ou plan‘s iodivsiy and nvion-

mn. Gnpa is a non-po oganisaion, psn in 40 ounis

aoss euop, h Amias, Asia and h Pai. I spaks o .8 million

suppos woldwid, and inspis many millions mo o ak aion vy

day. to mainain is indpndn, Gnpa dos no ap dona-

ions om govnmns o opoaions u lis on oniuions om

individual suppos and oundaion gans.

Gnpa has n ampaigning agains nvionmnal dgadaion

sin 1971 whn a small oa o voluns and jounaliss saild ino

Amhika, an aa noh o Alaska, wh h US Govnmn was on-

duing undgound nula ss. this adiion o ‘aing winss’ in a

non-violn mann oninus oday, and ships a an impoan pa o all

is ampaign wok.

greenpeace inTernaTiOnal

Oho Hldingsaa 5

1066 AZ Amsdam

th Nhlands

t: 31 0 718000

F: 31 0 5148151

www.gnpa.og

[email protected]

So b GWec, Gnpa Innaional, DLr and eoys

Tt t b Anglika Pulln, Sv Sawy, Svn tsk,

Jaki Jons

ds b i Gak & Illusaion, Hamug

co oto ots o Wind Pow Woks

GWEO 2010 Final

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Transcript of GWEO 2010 Final