Gwent Local Resilience Forum · Maintained in accordance with Regulation 15(1) of The Civil...

NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED

Gwent Local Resilience Forum Version: 6.2. 2015 Risk Assessment Working Group Review Date: September 2015

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Gwent Local Resilience Forum

2014-2015

GWENT COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER

GLRF Gwent Local Resilience Forum

Risk Assessment Working Group



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Maintained in accordance with Regulation 15(1) of The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (Contingency Planning) Regulations 2005.

Gwent Local Resilience Forum Community Risk Register

This Community Risk Register (CRR) is maintained in accordance with Regulation 15(1) of The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (Contingency Planning) Regulations 2005.

1. Contents

1. CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

2. DOCUMENT HISTORY ................................................................................................................................................................................. 3

3. OVERVIEW AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ 4

THE NATIONAL RISK REGISTER .......................................................................................................................................................................... 5

4. PRODUCTION & UPDATE PROCESS OF THE COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER ..................................................................................... 6

5. VISUALISATION OF THE COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER........................................................................................................................ 9

AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE HIGH CONSEQUENCE RISKS FACING GWENT LRF ......................................................................................................10

6. COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER..................................................................................................................................................................11

7. EXCL USIONS TABLE...................................................................................................................................................................................41

APPENDIX 1 LIKELIHOO D AND IMPACT SCORING SCALES....................................................................................................................44

GWENT LRF RISK PRIORITY SCORING SCALE....................................................................................................................................................46

APPENDIX 2 RISK RATING MATRIX ............................................................................................................................................................47

APPENDIX 3 2013 NRR THREAT MATRIX ..................................................................................................................................................49


Gwent Local Resilience Forum Version: 6.2. 2015

Risk Assessment Working Group Review Date: September 2015 of 50


2. Document History

Review Date Version Summary of Changes

Dec 2005 1.0 First Draft

Jan 2006 2.0 General Update to First Draft

Feb 2006 3.0 Minor adjustments to V2

Mar 2006 4.0 Minor adjustments to V3

Apr 2006 5.0 (WD) Minor adjustments to V4 (Working Draft)

June 2006 June 06 Addition of Executive Summary

June 2007 June 2007 Update from new guidance V5

Sept 2007 Sept 2007 Inclusion of Risk Priorities as agreed by the GLRF

Nov 2007 2008 Draft Updated from 2007 Local Risk Assessment Guidance

Sept 2008 Sept 2008 Adjustments to Sept 2008 version agreed by Gwent LRF Risk Assessment Working Group

Nov/Dec 2009 1.1 2009

Updated from the latest (2008) LRAG Local Risk Assessment

Guidance as agreed by the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment working group and the Risk Priorities Sub Group.

Sept 2010 2.1 2010 Updated from the latest (2009/2010) LRAG Local Risk Assessment Guidance, meetings of the LRF Risk Assessment

Working Group and individually updated risk assessments.

Jan 2011 2.2 2011 Updated Risk Priorities following approval of the revised Gwent LRF Risk Priority Ratings

March 2011 3 2011 Draft Version 3 Updated from the latest (2010/2011) LRAG Local Risk Assessment Guidance.

Jan 2012 3.1 (Final) Final Version agreed by the Risk Assessment Group & presented

to GLRF on 16th

February 2012

May 2012 4 2012 Draft Version 4 Updated from the latest (2011/2012) LRAG (Local Risk Assessment Guidance)

August 2012 4.1 2012 Draft Version 4.1 Revised layout of forward pages, document updated following meeting of the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment

Working Group 190712

Sept 2012 4.2 2012 Final Version 4.2

May-Sept 2013 5 2013 Draft Version 5 Updated from the latest (2012/2013) LRAG (Local Risk Assessment Guidance) and sanitised threat table updated

Oct – Dec 2013 5 2013 Further Risk Assessment updates following meetings of the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment Group

January 2014 5 2013 Final revisions and update presented to Gwent LRF Co-ordination

Group on 17th

January 2014

Sept 2014 6 2014 Draft Version 6 updated from the latest (2014) LRMG (Local Risk Management Guidance)

Feb 2015 6 2014 Further Risk Assessment updates following meeting of the Gwent LRF Risk Assessment working Group on 3

rd February 2015

Feb 2015 6.1 2014 Final Draft presented to the meeting of the LRF on 13th February

2015 with final amendments

Feb 2015 6.2 2015 (Final) Version 6.2 (Final) agreed at the meeting of the LRF on 13

th

February 2015. Policy on Welsh language translation updated.





3. Overview and Executive Summary

As part of the risk assessment process, we have been considering the likelihood and impact of a range of hazards occurring within the Gwent Local Resilience Forum area (The area covered by the Gwent

Police Service.) The Gwent Local Resilience Forum (LRF) includes representatives of all Category 1

and Category 2 responders1 within the Gwent area and is chaired by the Chief

Constable, Gwent Police. It also includes representatives from agencies that are not included in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 but are considered essential local

planning partners (e.g. Military and Welsh Government).

The Gwent LRF formed a Risk Assessment Working Group, currently chaired by Mr. Bob Crimp, Head of Corporate Risk & Emergency Management Torfaen County

Borough Council, to develop and maintain this CRR and associated risk assessment process.

The likelihood assessments relate to the risk occurring over a five-year period at the magnitude reflected

within the outcome description. The magnitude is based on an assessment of a reasonable worse case scenario.

As part of the risk assessment process, the Gwent LRF has been considering the likelihood and impact of a range of hazards occurring. This work – a statutory duty under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 – is an ongoing process and examples are provided for all of the hazards to illustrate the individual lead responsibility

for the individual hazard or threat. The illustration (section 5) summarises the types of risks covered in both the Gwent Community Risk Register

& the National Risk Register. Appendix 2 illustrates all the assessments in the Community Risk Register plotted onto a Risk Rating Matrix. This work, a statutory requirement under the Civil Contingencies Act, is an ongoing process and subject to continual review with the Gwent Community Risk Register formally published

on an annual basis. The risk assessments included in the published register will only cover non-malicious events (i.e. hazards)

rather than threats (i.e. terrorist incidents). This does not mean that we are not considering threats within our risk assessment work, but given the sensitivity of the information supporting these risk assessments and the potential for use by adversaries, specific details [beyond that provided overleaf and in the threat plausibility

matrix in appendix 3] will not be made available via this document. However the restricted, Practitioners’ version, does consider deliberate ‘malicious’ events and threats.

Typical hazard scenarios that are being considered include, for example: * Transport accidents ** * Natural Hazards & Severe weather

* Flooding

1 As defined by schedule 1 of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (c.36)

Bob Crimp (Risk Group Chair)

Chief Constable Jeff Farrar - (LRF Chair)

http://www.gwentprepared.org.uk/

http://www.torfaen.gov.uk/en/AdviceBenefits/EmergencyManagement/EmergencyManagement.aspx

http://www.torfaen.gov.uk/en/AdviceBenefits/EmergencyManagement/EmergencyManagement.aspx





* Industrial accidents and environmental pollution * Human health

* Animal health * Industrial technical failure

The National Risk Register

The National Risk Register gives a national picture, derived from the National Risk Assessment, of the risks of emergencies. The Threat Matrix in Appendix 3 gives an indication of the relative likelihood and

impact of the malicious risks that are outlined in the National Risk Register, including attacks on crowded places, transport systems, and infrastructure, smaller scale attacks using non-conventional (chemical, biological, radiological) materials, cyber attacks on infrastructure and data confidentiality,

and catastrophic terrorist attacks. In planning for emergencies Gwent LRF take into account the impact that these types of attack would have in the local area as much as we do the impacts of non-malicious, natural or accidental risks.

For more information regarding threats and the current threat level, please visit: http://www.mi5.gov.uk For more information regarding the National Risk Register, please visit:

http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk-register The inclusion of hazards or scenarios (i.e. the outcome descriptions) does not mean that the Local

Resilience Forum believes the risk will materialise, or that if it were to do so, it would be at that scale and rating. The risk scenarios are rather reasonable worse case assumptions upon which our risk assessment is based.

Risk assessment is not a static process and is subject to constant review. The information contained in this CRR will, as a result, be updated on an annual basis.

Of the 95 risk assessments carried out for the ‘Gwent Community Risk Register’, 30 risks have been identified as either ‘High’ or ‘Very High’ and 33 risks have been considered as not appropriate to the Gwent Local

Resilience Forum area and have been excluded. These risks fall into the following categories – Severe Weather, Transport, Industrial Technical Failures, Industrial Accidents and Environmental Pollution, Human Health, Structural Damage and Large Scale Fires.

The Gwent Local Resilience Forum now has a website called “Gwent Prepared”. Readers of this document are encouraged to visit this website and review the section that deals with risk. This

Community Risk Register is dovetailed to these user friendly pages on the website.

http://www.mi5.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-for-civil-emergencies-2013-edition

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-for-civil-emergencies-2013-edition

http://www.gwentprepared.org.uk/

http://www.gwentprepared.org.uk/index.php?id=106





** The term ‘accident’ is consistent w ith the Local Risk Assessment Guidance 2005. How ever, on a local basis, the term ‘incident’ w ill be used.

4. Production & update process of the Community Risk Register

This Community Risk Register is collectively owned by the Category 1 Responders (as defined by Schedule 1 to the Civil Contingencies Act 2004) within the Gwent Local Resilience Forum area.

The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (‘The Act’) places a legal duty on Category 1 responders to produce a Community Risk Register. Section 2, sub-section 1 of the Act requires Category 1 responders ‘… from time to time assess the risk of an emergency occurring …’ and ‘…from time to time assess the risk of an

emergency making it necessary or expedient for the person or body to perform any of its functions’. This should be linked to individual Category 1 responders’ processes of adding to (or modifying) their own individual plans.

In the event of an emergency*, the Act requires Category 1 responders to activate an emergency plan. Before the activation of such a plan is necessary, two tests should be carried out.

a) where the emergency would be likely to seriously obstruct its ability to perform its functions; and

b) where the Category 1 responder considers its necessary or desirable to act to pervert, reduce, control, or mitigate the emergency’s effects, or otherwise take action and would be unable to act without changing the deployment of its resources or acquiring additional resources.

This clearly implies that only serious emergencies need form part of a risk assessment process. The risk assessment process required need not cover large pre-planned events, as a risk assessment should form

part of the planning stage. The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (Contingency Planning) Regulations 2005 give the legal requirements in

relations to risk assessment in Part 3. These regulations place a responsibility on Category 1 responders to co-operate with each other in maintaining a Community Risk Register (CRR). Detailed guidance on the risk assessment process can be found within Chapter 4 (and its annexes) of the Emergency Preparedness

guidance document which has been published by HM Government . https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergency-preparedness

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergency-preparedness

http://www.gwentprepared.org.uk/index.php?id=106





This guidance states that the risk assessment process is the first step in the emergency planning process in order to identify the risk applicable to their area and then plan according to the priorities identified. The

process is divided into six stages; these are: 1. Contextualisation

Define the scope of the project (relate to definition of ‘emergency’ in the Act – see Section 4) and the process to be followed.

Identify stakeholders.

Set out risk evaluation criteria and principles. Review or describe social, economical, cultural, infrastructural and environmental issues within

local context.

*Definition of an Emergency For the purpose of Part 1 of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (c.36), ‘emergency’ is defined by s.1(1) of the Act and means: a) an event or situation which threatens serious damage to human welfare in a place in the United Kingdom;

b) an event or situation which threatens serious damage to the environment of a place in the United Kingdom’ or c) War, or terrorism, which threatens serious damage to the security of the United Kingdom.

It must also meet either of the following criteria: the threat or hazard is of a sufficient scale and nature that it is likely to seriously obstruct a Category 1 responder

in the performance of its functions; and/or the threat or hazard requires the Category 1 responder to exercise its functions and undertake a special

mobilisation (s.2(2) of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004).





2. Hazard review and allocation for assessment

Identification of those non-malicious hazards that present significant risks (i.e. could give rise to an emergency) in their areas over the next five years. These hazards will be identified on the basis of experience, research or other information. It should then be identified which agency will be the lead

assessor to conduct the risk assessment. Taking into account centrally provided guidance and drawing on information provided by

Category 2 responders, Category 1 responders provisionally identify and describe hazards which

might give rise to an emergency in the next five years and those which will not. Category 1 responders provisionally agree allocation of lead assessors. Local Resilience Forum (LRF) endorses hazards to be assessed and determines lead assessors

responsibility. Risk Assessment Working Group (RAWG) convenes and reviews hazards identified at LRF for

confirmation or possible CRR amendment.

RAWG confirms appropriateness of lead allocation and identifies any other agencies with key roles.

RAWG agrees a project plan with deadlines for assessing individual or groups of hazards.

3. Risk Analysis

Lead assessor considers the likelihood of hazards’ occurrence over five-year period, drawing on generic assessments from central government, other research and knowledge of Category 1 responders.

Lead assessor suggests the range of potential impacts arising from the hazards as well as any vulnerability surrounding these, and discusses with RAWG.

Lead assessor captures assessment details for each hazard and related reasoning within the

individual risk assessment form. This generates a provisional risk statement with likelihood, impact(s) and an overall risk assessment for evaluation by RAWG.

4. Risk Evaluation RAWG considers the individual risk assessment forms, compares the results to the risk criteria,

and confirms or modifies these assessments as appropriate. Agreed assessments are collated and incorporated into CRR. Risk matrix is plotted for hazards.

RAWG incorporates into CRR threat statements provided by central government within the local risk assessment guidance (LRAG), but does not assess likelihood or impact.

RAWG highlights existing capabilities and mitigation plans for the hazards and threats and:

considers the acceptability of risks; identifies and recommends options for risk treatment for the LRF; and makes recommendations to the LRF on risk priorities for hazards and threats.

LRF reviews the CRR and risk matrix in light of the evaluation criteria, and amends as appropriate.

LRF determines the acceptability of the risks before considering treatment.

5. Risk Treatment

Review the capability challenges posed by the risks against existing capabilities, mitigation plans or known gaps.

Set risk priorities.

Evaluate proposed options for additional treatment of risks and agree risk treatment plan. Identify officer or organisation to be responsible for implementation of actions. Actions communicated to appropriate working groups.

6. Monitoring and Review

Formal review of all risks on an annual cycle, but reviewed and updated as and when appropriate.





5. Visualisation of the Community Risk Register

The illustration overleaf summarises the types of risks covered in both the Gwent Community Risk Register & the National Risk Register. It attempts to illustrate the breadth of the high-consequence risks we face. It also gives an indication of the relative likelihood/plausibility and impact of these types of risks in comparison to

each other with the red ‘bubbles’ showing Threats/Risks based on plausibility and the blue ‘bubbles’ Risks based on likelihood.

The individual ‘Bubbles’ represent each risk category therefore representing an average risk rating of all the individual assessments within each category. Where a significant variance occurs with an individual risk rating these risks have been listed individually. For example within the Risk Category ‘Severe Weather & Natural

Hazards” there is a significant difference between the risk ratings for Flooding, Coastal Flooding, Severe Weather’ and the other forms of Natural Hazards covered in this category, therefore these have been given their own ‘bubble’ in order to highlight the differences.





An illustration of the high consequence risks facing Gwent LRF

1 2 3 4 5

RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD/PLAUSABILITY

of occurring in the next 5 years

High

T ransport

Accidents

Structural

Failures

International

Events

Cyber Attacks:

Infrastructure Attacks on

Infrastructure

Attacks on Crowded Places

Attacks on

Transport Systems

Catastrophic

Terrorist Attack

Industrial Accidents

& Environmental

Pollution

Public Disorder

Smaller Scale CBR Attacks

Animal Health &

Plant Disease

Industrial Action

Human Health: Pandemic Influenza

Human Health: Emerging Infectious Disease, Legionella/Meningitis Outbreak

Industrial Technical Failure

Gwent Risks: Legacy Mine

Workings

Gwent Risks: Drought

Flooding: Inc. Fluvial, Flash/Surface

Water

Accident on Motorways & Trunk

Roads

Coastal/T idal Flooding

Severe Weather Inc. Storms Gales,

Heavy Snow & Heatwave

Other Natural Hazards Inc Severe Space Weather, Severe

volcanic eruption overseas & Severe Wildfires

High

Low

Low

OV

ER

AL

L R

EL

AT

IVE

IMP

AC

T S

CO

RE

Threats/Risks based on

Plausibility Risks based on Likelihood

1

2

3

4

5

Cyber Attacks: Data

Confidentiality





(Note Risk Identification codes for hazards are subdivided into:: ‘H’ – risks which will require a national as well as a local response (nationally defined); ‘HL’ – risks which would not ordinarily prompt a national response and would usually be dealt with locally (nationally defined); ‘L’ – risks with unique

consequences that are very specific to a particular LRF, and are therefore not covered by the generic descriptions and consequences of H or HL risk (locally defined). Risk ID codes are followed by a sequential numerical suffix (either nationally defined for ‘H’ and ‘HL’ codes or locally defined for ‘L’ codes.)

Date of Revision: September 2014 Next review date: September 2015

UK Risk ID

Risk Title Outcome Description Likeli-

hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required

Controls currently in place

Additional risk treatment

required (w ith Timescale)

Risk priority

Lead Respon

sibility

Review Date

1. INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’ H4 Fire or explosion at a range of

industrial sites including f uel

distribution sites or site

storing f lammable and/or toxic liquids in atmospheric

pressure storage tanks

Fire or explosion at a f uel distribution site, or at a site storing

f lammable and/or toxic liquids

2 3 High Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents

COMAH

Plans

COMAH Top-Tier sites of f -

site emergency plans in place,

COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-

site emergency plans in place

All relev ant sites are

registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection,

3y r planning cy cle f or

hazardous installations

Gwent Major Emergency

Response Arrangements

Gwent LRF Chemical,

Ev acuation & Recov ery Plans

in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &

Inf orming Arrangements

Controls

considered to be

satisf actory and

meeting legal requirements

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015

H7 Explosion at a high pressure

gas pipeline

Local to site causing up to 100 f atalities and hospitalising up

to 200 people.

1

3 Medium Emergen

cy Plans

f or HP

Gas Pipelines

Pipeline construction and

installation are subject to

Technical Standards which

are the legal responsibility of the pipeline operator, and

monitored by HSE. High

pressure gas pipelines are required to hav e Pipeline

Controls

considered to be

satisf actory and

meeting legal requirements

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015

6. Community Risk Register






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required

Controls currently in

place

Additional risk

treatment required (w ith

Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Emergency Plans – these are

in place. National Grid plc has

a national sy stem of risk assessment f or replacement

of gas mains of iron

construction; there is a rolling

programme of upgrading distribution pipelines.

Gwent Major Emergency Response Arrangements

Gwent LRF Recov ery Plan

Gwent LRF Warning &


H9 Large Toxic Chemical Release Large toxic chemical release caused by release of chlorine or a number of other chemicals e.g. anhy drous hy drof luoric

acid, ref rigerated ammonia, sulphur di-oxide (or tri-oxide)

gas. This incident arises f rom possible mechanical equipment/process f ailure or corrosion, and not necessarily

inv olv ing f ire or explosion.

3

3

High

Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents

COMAH

Plans

Ev acuatio

n

arrangem

ents f or public info

etc

COMAH Top-Tier sites of f -site emergency plans in place,




registered with HSE and

subject to periodic inspection,





Gwent LRF Chemical, Ev acuation & Recov ery Plans

in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &


3

SWF&RS Sept 2015

H10 Radioactiv e substance release f rom a nuclear reactor

Site in the UK resulting in a degraded core with enhanced containment leakage through an open penetration with 1%

loss of containment. Health countermeasures during the

emergency phase required up to 30km f rom site

1 5 Medium Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents Ev acuatio

n

arrangem


etc

Multi-agency Oldbury of f -site plan in place f or South

Gloucestershire.

Gwent LRF Oldbury

Extendibility Arrangements

Distribution of stable iodine

tablets to the general

2

LA Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

COMAH

Plans

population within the Detailed

Emergency Planning Zone

(DPZ)








Gwent LRF Ev acuation Plan

Gwent LRF Warning & Inf orming Arrangements

Indiv idual Agency Generic

Emergency Response Plans

HSE regulates this industry

through its Nuclear Saf ety Directorate (NSD)

H11 Accidental exposure to radioactiv e material f rom

incorrectly handled stolen

sources

3 deaths af ter a month and 8 people requiring long term medical superv ision. Up to 500 worried well f rom the v icinity

of where the source was remov ed f rom its shielding may

seek medical reassurance at doctors surgeries and hospitals. Limited env ironmental contamination but possibly

a dif f icult recovery operation because of high dose rates

around the radiation source and restricted access

3

1

Low Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents Ev acuatio

n

arrangem


etc

Gwent LRF CBRN Plan


Gov ernment regulation on the

use and storage of radioactiv e

material.

Holders of radioactiv e material

are required to dispose of

sources by returning to the manuf acturers or to premises

authorised by the EA/NRW to

receiv e and hold the material.

2

NRW Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Major scrap metal sites hav e

installed detectors to guard

against the risk of radioactiv e sources being receiv ed by

accident


H14 Major contamination incident with widespread implications

f or the f ood chain.

There may be direct consumer and animal health ef f ects arising f rom this incident. We assume a small number of

f atalities and casualties although the public health

implications of f ood incidents v ary widely , It should be noted

that ev ents such as these, that cause an increase in exposure to human carcinogens, raise the risk of f atality

ev en though the casualty cannot be identif ied.

Additionally there may be f ood production/marketing

implications depending on scale and area af f ected (e.g. major shellf isheries, diary , liv estock production areas).

Potential direct animal and consumer health ef f ects.

Consumer conf idence may also be af f ected leading to lost markets, and where staple products (e.g. bread or milk) are

af f ected, potential panic buy ing.

5 2 Medium

Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents


Gwent LRF CBRN & Chemical

Plans

Local Authority Env ironmental

Health procedures and

outbreak plans in place


3

Public Health

Wales

(PHW)

Food

Standard

s Agency

(FSA)

Sept 2015

H46 Biological substance release

during an unrelated work

activ ity or industrial process (e.g. legionella release due to

improperly maintained building

env ironmental control

sy stems)

Up to 10 f atalities and serious injuries or of f site impact

resulting in up to 1000 hospital admissions.

5 2 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangements



Local Authority Outbreak

Plans in place

Legionella Health & Saf ety Risk Assessment and plans as

part of organisational duty of

care.

Joint Agency generic

inf ectious diseases plan in

place

Gwent LRF Warning &


3

Public

Health

Wales (PHW)

Sept 2015

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’

HL2 Localised industrial accident

inv olv ing large toxic release (e.g. f rom a site storing large

quantities of chlorine)

Up to 3km f rom site, causing up to 30 f atalities and up to

250 casualties

3 3

High

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Ev acuatio


site emergency plans in place, COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-


2

SWF&RS Sept

2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

n

arrangem


etc

COMAH Plans








Gwent LRF Chemical,


in place.


HL3 Localised industrial accident

inv olv ing small toxic release

Up to 1km f rom site, up to 10 f atalities and 100 casualties 3 3

High

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Ev acuation

arrangem

ents f or

public info etc

COMAH

Plans










Gwent LRF Chemical,

Ev acuation & Recov ery Plans in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &


2

SWF&RS Sept 2015

HL4 Major Pollution of surf ace

waters and groundwater

Pollution incident impacting upon surf ace waters (inland and

coastal waters) and groundwater. For example, could be

caused by chemical spillage or release of a large quantity of untreated sewage, leading to persistent and/or extensiv e

ef f ect on water quality , major damage to aquatic

ecosy stems, closure of portable abstraction point(s), major impact on amenity (i.e. tourism) v alue, serious impact on

human health

5 4

Very

High

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

COMAH Plans

Site Authorisation LA/NRW, EMIM

Major Incident Plans

National Guidance

Documents/teams

Pollution prev ention v isits.

Regular testing and exercising

3

NRW/DE

FFRA

Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date



Gwent LRF Chemical,


in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &


HL7 Industrial Explosion and Major

Fires

Up to 1km around site causing up to 20 casualties, some of

a serious nature. Explosions would cause primarily

crush/cuts & bruises ty pe injuries, as well as burns

5

2 Medium

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

COMAH

Plans



COMAH Lower-Tier sites on-site emergency plans in place


registered with HSE and subject to periodic inspection,

3y r planning cy cle f or hazardous installations



Gwent LRF Chemical,


in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &


Considered

Satisf actory

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015

HL28 Localised Fire or explosion at

a f uel distribution site and/ or tank storage of f lammable

and/or toxic liquids

Up to 1km around the site, causing up to 15 f atalities and

200 casualties

2 3 High Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents




All relev ant sites are registered with HSE and





Controls

considered to be satisf actory and

meeting legal

requirements

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Gwent LRF Chemical,


in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &


HL30 Localised explosion at a

natural gas pipeline

Causing up to 100 f atalities and up to 100 casualties

1 3 Medium Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents




All relev ant sites are registered with HSE and


3y r planning cy cle f or hazardous installations


Gwent LRF Chemical,


Gwent LRF Warning &


Controls

considered to be satisf actory and

meeting legal

requirements

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015

HL33 Forest or Moorland Fire Forest or moorland f ire across up to 50 hectares. Ev acuation of up to 100 residential homes required.

Transport inf rastructure disrupted f or up to a day due to

smoke. Fatalities are possible, depending on the av erage recreational or occupational use of the area, with people

needing medical assistance due to the proximity of the f ire.

2 2 Medium

Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents

SWFRS implementation of new techniques f or dealing

with wildf ires, including new

equipment, understanding of

wildf ire behav iour reducing resources committed at

incidents but resulting in a

saf e well managed approach

to the resolution of an incident



Gwent LRF Ev acuation &

Recov ery Plans in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &


None identif ied

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

2. TRANSPORT ACCIDENTS

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’ H16 Av iation accident ov er a semi-

urban area

Loss of up to two aircraf t and passengers, with debris ov er a

semi-urban area.

1 4 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Control measures associated

with the aircraf t operating

authorities and regulatory bodies, combined with the

security aspects

RAF Post Crash Management awareness training completed

f or the LRF




Gwent LRF Warning &


Rev iew risk in the

light of any aircraf t

accident af f ecting Gwent or

neighbouring

areas.

2

LA (RAF) Sept 2015

H60 Road or rail tanker containing

dangerous goods and/or “high

consequence” dangerous goods – accident inv olv ing f ire

and explosion

Up to 250 f atalities and up to 5,000 requiring medical

treatment f or an incident inv olv ing high consequence

dangerous goods. The explosion will cause v ary ing degrees of damage to property and inf rastructure depending on their

distance f rom the incident. This risk would result in a toxic

plume/gas cloud which would be harmf ul to the population

resulting in ev acuation of the immediate area.

This risk could result in env ironmental contamination with

associated env ironmental impacts. Depending on the nature and extent of the contamination there could be impacts on

air, land, water, animal welf are, agriculture and waste

management. This risk may require remediation and/or

decontamination.

1 4 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Roads Policing/HAZMAT

capability through Gwent

Police OPS Support.

Fire Serv ice Hazardous

Materials (HAZMAT) &

Detection Identif ication & Monitoring (DIM) Capability

Local authority emergency plans



Gwent LRF Chemical,


in place.

Gwent LRF Warning &


5

HGP Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date


HL8 Fire, f looding, stranding or collision inv olv ing a passenger

v essel in or close to UK

waters or on inland waterway s, leading to the

ship’s ev acuation

Up to 50 f atalities and up to 100 casualties 1 3 Medium Operational organisational planning in place (f ire f ighting

at sea & rescue at sea.

1

MCA Sept 2015

HL9 Av iation Accident Causing up to 50 f atalities and up to 250 casualties. 1 3 Medium Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents

Control measures associated with the aircraf t operating

authorities and regulatory

bodies, combined with the

security aspects

RAF Post Crash Management

awareness training completed f or the LRF





Gwent LRF Warning &


Rev iew risk in the light of any aircraf t

accident af f ecting

Gwent or

neighbouring areas.

2

LA (RAF) Sept 2015

HL10 Local accident on motorway s

and major trunk roads

Multiple v ehicle incident causing up to 10 f atalities and up to

20 casualties (internal injuries, f ractures, possible burns);

closure of lanes or carriage way s causing major disruption

and delay s

5

3

High

Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents

Major incident plan.

(Emergency serv ices)

Normal emergency response

procedures/Core Business

Competency of Emergency Serv ices

Local authority & SEWTRA

emergency plans

Activ e Traf f ic Management

sy stems (M4)

Bry nglas & Gibraltar Tunnel

Plans/Site specif ic plans

3

HGP Sept 2015

HL11 Railway Accident Up to 30 f atalities and up to 100 casualties (f ractures,

internal injuries – burns less likely ). Possible loss of f reight.

Major disruption to rail line including possible closure of rail

tunnel

1 3 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents

Generic Major Incident plans

f or all Blue Light Serv ices and

Health Sector in place

Site Specif ic plan (Sev ern Rail

Considered

Satisf actory

2

BTP Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Tunnel) in place

Site Specif ic plan (Caerphilly Railway tunnel) in place

Network Rail Emergency

Procedures and Plans in place

Local Authority Mass Fatalities

& Mortuary Plans in place

Multi-Agency training

Exercises prov ided by

Network Rail / BTP

ANPR equipped camera v an

deploy ed by BTP to Lev el

Crossings as deterrent f or misuse by users.

HL13 Maritime accident or deliberate blockade resulting

in blockage of access to key

port, estuary , maritime route

f or more than one month

Loss of port is likely to hav e an initial wider impact, but will quickly reduce as shippers seek alternativ e ports or

methods of shipping. Economic impact on local dependent

business

1 2 Low Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents


1 MCA Sept 2015

HL14 Local (road) accident inv olv ing

transport of f uel / explosiv es

Multiple serious casualties with the possibility of multiple

f atalities within v icinity of accident/explosion, depending on

the av erage accident rate f or the local road networks in that particular area. Area could require ev acuating up to 1 km

radius depending on substances inv olv ed. Potential release

of up to 30 tonnes of liquid f uel into local env ironment, watercourses etc. Large quantities of f ire f ighting media

(f oam) could impact on env ironment. Roads and access

routes impassable f or a time. Emergency access into/out of

large populated areas becomes dif f icult or impossible.

2 3 High Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Roads Policing/HAZMAT

capability through Gwent

Police OPS Support.

Fire Serv ice Hazardous

Materials (HAZMAT) & Detection Identif ication &

Monitoring (DIM) Capability

Local authority emergency plans



Gwent LRF Chemical,


Gwent LRF Warning &


None identif ied

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

HL34 Fire, f looding, stranding or

collision inv olv ing a passenger

v essel in or close to UK waters leading to the ships

ev acuation or partial

ev acuation at sea

Up to 50 f atalities and 100 casualties 1

3 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Operational organisational

planning in place (f ire f ighting



Response arrangements

1

MCA Sept 2015

HL37 Release of signif icant

quantities of hazardous

chemicals / materials as a result of major shipping

accident

Fatalities and casualties unlikely . Signif icant env ironmental

/ ecological damage 1 3 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Operational organisational

planning in place (f ire f ighting




1

MCA Sept 2015

3. NATURAL HAZARDS AND SEVERE WEATHER

NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’

H17 Sev ere Storms and Gales Storm f orce winds af f ecting multiple regions (f or example

Wales, West Midlands, East Midlands and East of England

f or at least 6 hours during a working day . Most inland, lowland areas experience mean speeds in excess of 55mph

with gusts in excess of 85mph. Up to 50 f atalities and 500

casualties

4

2 Medium

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Gwent LRF Sev ere Weather

plan

Local authority emergency

plans



2

LA Sept 2015

H18 Low Temperatures and Heavy Snow

Snow f alling and ly ing ov er multiple regions f or at least one week. Af ter an initial f all of snow there is f urther snow f all on

and of f f or at least 7 day s. Most lowland areas experience

some f alls in excess 10cm, a depth of snow in excess of 30cm and a period of at least 7 consecutiv e day s with daily

mean temperature below -3C. Up to 30 f atalities and

thousands of casualties, mainly due to trips slips and f alls

Howev er there will be a large number of excess morbidity /mortality abov e the number in a normal winter.

There is likely to be disruption to transport networks,

businesses, power supply , telecommunications links and

water supply , and there will also be school closures.

4 4 Very

High

Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents

Gwent LRF Sev ere Weather plan

Local authority emergency plans & prioritised road snow

clearance plans



2

LA Sept 2015

H48 Heat Wav e Daily maximum temperatures in excess of 28oC and

minimum temperatures in excess of 15 oC ov er most of the

region f or around 2 weeks at least 5 consecutiv e day s

where maximum temperatures exceed 32 oC. Up to 1000

f atalities and 5000 casualties, mainly amongst the elderly .

4 4

Very High

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Gwent LRF Sev ere Weather

plan



Following the

withdrawal in Wales f rom the

Met Of f ice Heat

Health Watch alert

5

Health

Board

Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

There is likely to be disruption to power supply ,

telecommunications links and transport inf rastructure during

the 2 weeks.

Gwent LRF Recov ery Plan mechanism,

rev isions are

required to the trigger lev els within

the Gwent LRF

Sev ere Weather

Plan

H19 Flooding: Major Coastal and

tidal f looding af f ecting parts of more than two UK regions

Combinations of high natural tides, a major sea surge, and significant onshore waves resulting from a very low depression system creating gale force winds and heavy rainfall Many coastal regions and tidal

reaches of rivers affected by overtopping or failure (breach) of coastal and/or estuary defences, plus consequential ‘tide locking ’ of gravity drainage systems.

3 5

Very High

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Major Emergency Plan

General ev acuation and

recov ery arrangements

Local Flood Warning Plan f or the Area

Flood Warnings

Flood Response

Specif ic arrangements f or high risk areas

Gwent LRF Flooding Arrangements.

Indiv idual Agency Flood

Response Procedures

Gwent Lev els Flood &

Ev acuation Plans




Gwent LRF Warning &


Assist Natural

Resources Wales in take-up of

automated v oice

messaging f or use

in warning local residents and

encourage better

f lood preparedness

in communities.

Work with Land

Drainage on the mapping and

identif ication of

‘f looding hotspots’

on becks and other watercourses.

“ The Gwent Coastal levels flooding

contingency plans

have been developed

on a local basis as far as is reasonable

by the GLRF

working groups. A number of strategic

level pan LRF issues

were identified and

the assistance of Welsh Government

requested in their

resolution. Through

the WRF flood group it has been

determined to

conduct an exercise to examine these and

5

NRW Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

other issues. The

timeline for this

exercise is early 2015. In the interim

the focus will be

upon ensuring the

exercise provides adequate

opportunities to

progress these issues. Consequently

no further specific

plan development is

anticipated until the exercise report is

published.”

H21 Flooding: Sev ere f luv ial f looding af f ecting more than

two geographical regions

A single massiv e f luvial ev ent or concurrent ev ents across multiple geographic regions f ollowing a sustained period of

heav y rainf all extending ov er two weeks (perhaps combined

with snow melt and surf ace water f looding). The ev ent would include sev ere f luv ial f looding af fecting a large, single

urban area. There may also be combined or additional

impacts f rom surf ace water f looding. Closure of primary

transport routes. Inf rastructure f ailure. Loss of essential serv ices (gas, electricity and telecoms) to 250,000 homes

and business f or up to 14 day s. Sediment mov ement and

disruption to water supplies. Signif icant regional economic

damage.

Across urban and rural areas (with a greater proportion

occurring in urban areas) f looding of up to 50,000 properties

(homes and businesses) f or up to 10 day s. Up to 10 f atalities and 500 casualties and 20 missing persons

(“missing” means not accounted f or during the f irst 48 hours,

bef ore Police can reunite with f amily or f riends). Up to 55,000 people needing assistance with ev acuation. Up to

6,000 people in need of rescue or assistance in-situ.

2 5

High

Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents


Generic Flooding Plan

Major Flood Incident Plan f or

Riv ers


Flood Warnings

Flood Response

.

Gwent LRF Flooding Arrangements.


Response Procedures





Assist Natural Resources Wales

in take-up of

automated v oice messaging f or use

in warning local

residents and

encourage better f lood preparedness

in communities

Work with Land Drainage on the

mapping and

identif ication of

‘f looding hotspots’ on becks and other

watercourses

2

NRW Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

H55 Sev ere ef f usive (gas rich)

v olcanic eruption ov erseas

A severe volcanic eruption, generating large amounts of gas and ash over a 5 month period affecting the UK and Northern Europe.

3 4 Very

High

(This Risk Rating is in line with the suggested national risk)

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Major

Emergency Plans

BCM

STAC Arrangements in place

Food protection legislation

Met Of f ice Volcanic Ash

Adv isory Centre & Natural

Hazards partnership




Gwent LRF Warning &


Organisational Business

Continuity Plans

Encourage

Business

Continuity planning

On-going

understanding of

the impact of the Risk at National

lev el which will

inf luence any local

improv ements required

2 PHW/LA/

Met

Of f ice

Sept 2015

H56 Sev ere space weather The reasonable worst-case scenario is based upon space weather of approximately the same magnitude as the Carrington Event of 1859, lasting for 1-2 weeks. This period of 1-2 weeks is made up of a number of different types of solar phenomena, including coronal mass ejections, solar radiation storms, solar flares and solar radio bursts. It is estimated that up to 6 super gird transformers in England and Wales and a further 7 in Scotland could be damaged. Not all failures would lead to disconnections but it is estimated that two coastal electrical sub-stations serving approximately 100,000 customers each are severely damaged and unable to supply electricity for two or more months. Consumers in these areas would experience an initial loss of supply, for up to half this period (i.e. for one month or more), until the local Distribution Network Operators and National Grid could arrange for alternative supplies such as interconnection to other substations, or deployment of mobile electricity generation. It is likely that rota-disconnections would be used in the affected areas for the rest of the period until the substation repairs were completed. Up to 10% of satellites could experience disruptions to services for lasting from hours to several days, including interruptions and degradations of GPS. This could result in casualties and fatalities as GPS is an integral component of modern automated dispatch systems used by the emergency services. Rapid ageing due to the radiation environment is expected to result in very old satellites failing in the aftermath of the storm. Disruption to aviation could last for several days as a result of: • an increase error rate in the electronics of flight control systems; • temporary loss of high frequency (HF) radio and satellite communication systems; • degradation of GPS augmentation services; • an increase in GPS horizontal and vertical error margins; • aircrew and passenger exposure to elevated levels of radiation (up to 10-20mSv) in the course of a few hours more than once during the space weather event (the normal limit for members of the public is 1 mSv in excess from all sources of exposure).

4 3 High (This Risk Rating is in line with the suggested national risk.)

BCM

Plans

Major

Emergen

cy Plans

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

National Grid: The more likely

impacts on the electrical

power grid would arise f rom v oltage instability leading to a

local or, if sev ere enough, a

national blackout. National

Grid has well established plan f or this ty pe of ev ent which is

exercised regularly . Although

some f orm of rota disconnection (Black Start)

may be necessary to ensure

power is av ailable until repairs

are made.

Met Of f ice 24/7 f orecasting

capability .



Gwent LRF Warning &

Engagement with

Category 2

Responders in particular utility

prov iders to

determine the

Local LRF risk prof ile

Implementation of National Guidance

when receiv ed and

its impacts on

Local Business Continuity

Arrangements and

Contingency

Planning

2 Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Increase in error rate in ground-based unprotected digital control systems, which are ubiquitous in modern technology (computers, internet systems, mobile phones etc.), for the duration of the storm. Interruptions lasting up to 3 days to L-band communications including civilian mobile satellite communications and satellite broadcasting systems. Terrestrial broadcasting could be indirectly affected due to GPS dependencies.


Organisational Business Continuity Plans/procedures

Organisational Major Incident

Plans

H58 Sev ere Wildf ires Sev ere wildf ire spreading ov er an area of 1500 hectares at

an urban-rural interf ace and lasting f or 7 to 10 day s. At any one time during the incident period, a f ire f ront cov ering 20

hectares will burn and be likely to demonstrate extreme f ire

behav iour, with a f urther 100 hectares of v egetation

smouldering with the risk of a secondary burn-back.

1 2 Low

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

SWFRS hav e implemented

new techniques f or dealing with wildf ires, these hav e

included new equipment,

understanding wildf ire

behav iour reducing resources committed at incidents but

resulting in a saf e well

managed approach to the

resolution of an incident.

No additional

specif ic LRF requirements

2 SWFRS Sept 2015

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’ HL16 Local coastal / tidal f looding

(af f ecting more than one

Region)

Sea surge, spring tides, gale force winds and/or heavy rainfall

affecting more than one Region, some defences overtopped or failing at multiple locations. Flooding of 1000 to 10,000 properties for up to 14 days. Up to 20 fatalities, 300 casualties and up to 200 missing persons. Up to 50,000 people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a

large area and up to 5,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 10,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Multi-agency response invoked, possible large scale evacuation required. Suddenness of failure to defences would not be possible to predict.

3 4

Very

High

Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents




Local Flood Warning Plan f or

the Area

Flood Warnings

Flood Response

Specif ic arrangements f or high

risk areas

Gwent Flood Plans.


Response Procedures

Gwent Lev els Flood & Ev acuation Plans




Assist Natural

Resources Wales

in take-up of

automated v oice messaging f or use

in warning local

residents and encourage better

f lood preparedness

in communities

Work with Land

Drainage on the

mapping and

identif ication of ‘f looding hotspots’

on becks and other

watercourses

5

NRW Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Gwent LRF Warning &


HL17 Local coastal / tidal f looding

(in one region)

Sea surge, high tides and/or gale f orce winds af f ecting the

coastline and one Region, a def ence sy stem ov ertopped or

f ailing at a single location. Localised impact with inf rastructure af fected and up to 1000 properties f looded f or

up to 14 day s. Up to 10 f atalities, 150 casualties and up to

100 missing persons. Up to 20,000 people (including

tourists) in coastal v illages and towns ev acuated f rom f looded sites. People stranded ov er a large area and up to

2,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 3,000 people

needing assistance with sheltering f or up to 12 months.

Multi-agency response inv oked with some local ev acuation and cordoning of f of affected areas.

4 4

Very

High

Joint

Agency

Arrangements





Flood Warnings

Flood Response

Specif ic arrangements f or high

risk areas in Gwent Flood Plans.

Indiv idual Agency Flood Response Procedures

Gwent Lev els Flood &

Ev acuation Plans




Gwent LRF Warning &


Assist Natural

Resources Wales

in take-up of automated v oice

messaging f or use

in warning local

residents and encourage better

f lood preparedness

in communities

Work with Land

Drainage on the

mapping and


on becks and other

watercourses

5

Sept 2015

HL18 Local/Urban Flooding (Fluv ial

or surf ace run-of f )

A sustained period of heav y rainf all extending ov er two

weeks, perhaps combined with snow melt, resulting in f lash f looding steadily rising riv er lev els across entire counties

and could threaten a large urban town. Localised f looding of

1000 to 10,000 properties f or 2-7 day s. Up to 15 f atalities

and 150 casualties. Up to 15,000 people ev acuated. Up to 500 people stranded ov er a large area and in need of

rescue. There would be major impact on road and rail links,

making them impassable f or up to 5 day s. Impact on inf rastructure includes: some buildings collapse, water

damage, road and bridge damage. Sediment mov ement

and contamination of water supplies

3 4

Very High

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Major Emergency Plan;

Major f lood incident Plan,

Natural Resources Wales–

‘Local f lood warning plan f or area’,

Flood warnings and f lood response.

Gwent Flood Plans.

Assist Natural

Resources Wales in take-up of

automated v oice

messaging f or use


encourage better

f lood preparedness in communities

Work with Land

2

NRW Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date


Response Procedures





Drainage on the

mapping and


on becks and other

watercourses

HL19 Local f luv ial f looding A sustained period of heav y rainf all extending ov er two weeks, perhaps combined with snow melt, resulting in

steadily rising riv er lev els within a region. Localised f looding

of 100 to 1,000 properties f or 2-7 day s. Up to 5 f atalities

and 50 casualties. Up to 5,000 people ev acuated. Up to 200 people stranded ov er a large area and in need of

rescue. There would be some impact on minor roads and

some A roads and trunk roads impassable f or a time. Some main rail lines may need to be closed f or a week (f or repairs

etc).

4 3 High

Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents


Natural Resources Wales –

‘Local f lood warning plan f or

area’,

Flood warnings and f lood

response.

Gwent Flood Plans.






Assist Natural Resources Wales

in take-up of

automated v oice

messaging f or use in warning local

residents and

encourage better f lood preparedness

in communities

Work with Land Drainage on the

mapping and

identif ication of

‘f looding hotspots’ on becks and other

watercourses

2

NRW Sept 2015

HL20 Localised, extremely

hazardous f lash f looding

Heav y localised rainf all in steep v alley catchments leading

to extremely hazardous f lash f looding. (e.g. high v elocities

and depths). Likely that no f lood def ences in place. Possibly no f lood warning serv ice av ailable / or suddenness

of ev ent means timely f lood warnings are not possible.

Flooding of up to 200 properties. (NB: the outcome is essentially the same as H44 – Dam or reserv oir f ailure)

5

3

High

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Major Emergency Plan;


Natural Resources Wales –

‘Local f lood warning plan f or area’,

Flood warnings and f lood

response.

Gwent Flood Plans.

Assist Natural

Resources Wales

in take-up of automated v oice

messaging f or use


encourage better

f lood preparedness

in communities

Work with Land

2

NRW Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date





Gwent LRF Warning &


Drainage on the

mapping and


on becks and other

watercourses

4. STRUCTUAL


H44 Major reserv oir dam f ailure /

collapse

Collapse without warning resulting in almost instantaneous

f looding. Signif icant mov ement of debris (including v ehicles) and sediment. Complete destruction of some residential and

commercial properties and serious damage of up to 500

properties. Sev eral thousand other properties could be

f looded. Whilst there are a small number of reserv oirs which could potentially put thousands of liv es at risk, a sensible

planning assumption is f or up to 200 f atalities and up to

1000 casualties. Up to 50 missing persons and people

stranded. Hazardous recov ery amongst collapsed inf rastructure and debris. Water supply to homes and

business is lost. Up to 200 people need temporary

accommodation f or 2-18 months.

1 5 Medium Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Specif ic Of f -Site

emergenc

y plans

required f or

identif ied

high risk reserv oirs

Generic

Gwent LRF

Reserv oir

Inundatio

n Plan Supporte

d by

specif ic planning

f or

reserv oirs

if dif f erent



Specif ic Of f -Site emergency

plans required f or identif ied

high risk reserv oirs

Generic Gwent LRF

Reserv oir Inundation Plan

Supported by specif ic planning f or reserv oirs if dif ferent from

those already identif ied

Reserv oir inundation mapping

Areas at risk of impact

identif ied/High consequence risk reserv oirs identif ied

Generic of f -site emergency

plans where required

Specif ic of f -site emergency

plans where required

Regular inspections

Other responder organisations

2

NRW Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

f rom

those

already identif ied

(2012)

major emergency plans


Gwent LRF Warning &



HL21 Land Mov ement (i.e. caused

by tremors or landslides)

Roads and access routes impassable f or a time. Emergency

access into/out of large populated areas dif f icult or

impossible; sev ere congestion ov er wide geographical area. Loss of power and other essential serv ices ov er wide

geographical area. Potential f or a number of persons to be

trapped or missing either in landslide itself and/or in

collapsed structures. A number of f atalities are possible depending on the size and location of land mov ement, and

the limitations of emergency access to injured persons.

1

5 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangements




Gwent LRF Warning &


Local Authority Emergency

Plans

Gwent Police Contingency

Plans

Identif ication of Care Centres

Site specif ic plans in place

where required.

Fire Serv ice Urban Search &

Rescue capabilities (USAR)

2

LA Sept 2015

HL22 Building Collapse Potential f or a number of persons to be trapped or missing.

Localised loss of power and other essential serv ices. Local access routes af f ected due to road closures. Depending on

the size and construction of building, and occupation rates,

there will alway s remain the possibility of f atalities or serious

casualties.

2

3 High Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents





Fire Serv ice Urban Search & Rescue capabilities (USAR)

UK Search & Rescue Teams



None identif ied

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date


procedures


plans

HL23 Bridge Closure or Collapse Roads, access routes and transport inf rastructure

impassable f or considerable length of time. Sev ere

congestion ov er wide geographical area. Emergency

access into/out of large populated areas sev erely restricted. Potential f or a number of persons to be trapped or missing.

1 3 Medium

Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents




Gwent LRF Warning &


Fire Serv ice Urban Search &

Rescue capabilities (USAR) UK Search & Rescue Teams




procedures


plans

None identif ied

2

SWF&RS Sept 2015

5. HUMAN HEALTH

NATIONAL RISKS

H23 Inf luenza Ty pe Disease

(Pandemic) Each pandemic is dif f erent and the nature of the v irus and

its impacts cannot be known in adv ance. Prev ious pandemics hav e led to dif f erent outcomes. Based on

understanding of prev ious pandemic, a pandemic is likely to

occur in one or more wav es possibly weeks and months apart. Each wav e may last between 12-15 weeks. Up to half

the population could be af f ected. All ages may be af f ected,

but until the v irus emerges, we cannot know which groups

will be most at risk.

4 5

Very High

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Gwent

Interagen

cy

Contingency plan

f or

Pandemic

Flu

Gwent Interagency

Contingency plan f or Pandemic Flu

BCM arrangements in place

Links into Wales Inf ectious

Diseases Framework

New guidelines by Welsh

Gov ernment

Generic planning f or

Vulnerable Persons integrated into Gwent Flu Plan and

Gwent Ev acuation plan

Carry out required improvements to

the Gw ent LRF Pandemic Influenza Plan follow ing

Exercise Cygnus October 2014.

5

Public

Health Wales

(PHW)

Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Specif ic Potentially Vulnerable

Persons Planning within

indiv idual organisations



(GMERA) plan


Gwent LRF Warning &


Gwent LRF Mass Fatalities Plan

H24 Emerging inf ectious disease Based upon the experience of the outbreak of Sev ere Acute

Respiratory Sy ndrome (SARS) in 2002, the worst case likely impact of such an outbreak originating outside the UK would

be cases occurring amongst returning trav ellers and their

f amilies and close contacts, with spread to health care workers within hospital setting.

3 3 High Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

Link to Wales inf ectious

diseases f ramework

BCM arrangements in place.



(GMERA) plan


Gwent LRF Warning &


Gwent LRF Mass Fatalities

Plan

Gwent LRF

Inf ectious Diseases Plan

5

Public

Health Wales

(PHW)

Sept 2015

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’ HL24 Localised legionella /

meningitis outbreak

Localised outbreak of a disease which could cause

Approximately 500 identif ied cases leading to 20 f atalities.

4 3

High

Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents

Legionella Health & Saf ety

Risk Assessment and plan as

part of organisational duty of

care. Joint agency Public

Protection/Env ironmental

Health Joint Operational planning


Response Arrangements (GMERA) plan

No additional

specif ic LRF

requirements

2

Public

Health

Wales

(PHW)

Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date



6. ANIMAL HEALTH AND PLANT DISEASE NATIONAL RISKS ‘H’ H25 Outbreak of exotic notif iable

disease in animals (including

birds).

There are ov er 30 notif iable diseases, many of which hav e

nev er been seen in the UK. Notif iable diseases are those,

which is suspected must be reported to the local of f ice of the Animal Health Veterinary Laboratories agency (AHVLA).

Notif iable diseases can either be “endemic” (those that are

not normally present in the UK, but can be introduced f or example v ia illegal imports or by wild birds e.g. Foot and

Mouth Disease (FMD), av ian inf luenza (AI, commonly

ref erred to as “bird f lu”)). Some endemic and exotic

diseases are also zoonotic (they can pass between animals and humans, such as rabies).

Exotic notif iable animal disease outbreaks can v ary in size

f rom a single af f ected animal to a major epidemic af f ecting hundreds or thousands of premises.

3 2 Medium Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Animal Health Act 1981

(Section 15(1) –“any person

hav ing in their possession or under their charge an animal

af f ected or suspected of

hav ing one of these diseases

must, with all practicable speed, notif y that fact to a

police constable”.

Great Britain and Northern Ireland Contingency Plan f or

Exotic Notif iable Diseases of

Animals (2012)

Number of disease control

strategies including:

Notif iable Av ian Disease

Control Strategy f or Great

Britain

Foot and Mouth disease

control strategy f or Great

Britain

Rabies disease control

strategy f or England and

Wales

UK Bluetongue control

strategy

Af rican Horse Sickness control

strategy f or Great Britain

Classical Swine Fev er disease control strategy f or Great

None Identif ied

2

LA/

AHVLA

Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Britain

Af rican Swine Fev er disease control strategy f or Great

Britain

Welsh Gov ernment Contingency Plan f or Exotic

Animal Diseases (Oct 2014)

Pan Wales Response Plan

(Draf t 2012)

Def ra Contingency Plan f or Exotic Notif iable Diseases of

Animals (March 2014)

Welsh Gov ernment Ov erv iew of Emergency Preparedness

f or Exotic Animal Diseases

Welsh Gov ernment Framework Response Plan f or

Exotic Animal Diseases

Pan Wales Response Plan

(Draf t 2010)


Indiv idual Agency Major

Incident Plans


Gwent LRF Warning &







UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

LOCAL RISKS ‘HL’ HL43 Outbreak of plant disease

g.g.chalara Dieback of Ash & Phy tophthora Ramorum

Disease of Larch Trees)

Major outbreak of plant disease. Damage to nativ e plants &

ecosy stems (with knock on ef f ects to rural economy should diseases become widespread within the tree population).

Controls likely to be imposed on industry with particular

impact on the f orestry and nursery stock sectors.

3

2 Medium

Welsh Government

Disease Management strategy for the outbreak

of the tree disease, Phytophthora Ramorum that has been spreading

w idely throughout larch in w estern Britain and Ireland

Under Consideration 3

NRW Sept 2015

7. INDUSTRIAL ACTION


H30

Emergency serv ices: loss of emergency f ire and rescue

cov er because of industrial

action.

Emergency serv ices: loss of emergency fire and rescue cov er because of industrial action and the f ailure of f ire and

rescue authorities to hav e adequate business continuity

arrangements in place to maintain serv ice response.

5 2 Medium Fire & Rescue

authoritie

s must hav e

ef f ective

business

continuity arrangem

ents in

place to

meet the f ull range

of serv ice

deliv ery

risks.

SWFRS Business Continuity Arrangements in Place (linked

in to national contingency

arrangements)



Indiv idual Agency Business

Continuity , f ire saf ety and

health & Saf ety plans in place

GLRF Recov ery Plan

No additional specif ic LRF

requirements 2

SWFRS Sept 2015

H31 Actual or threatened

signif icant disruption to f uel supplies including as a result

of industrial action by tanker

driv ers or, ref inery staff, or

ef f ective blockades at key ref ineries / terminals by

protestors.

Retail f illing stations, depending on the extent of the

disruption and their locations, and assuming no panic buy ing would likely run out of f uel in less than a week. Oil terminals,

f or example those supply ing emergency serv ices and critical

supply chains, would also f ace reduced deliv eries, and it is

likely that they would progressiv ely begin to run short of f uel. Food haulage companies would run out of f uel within

approximately 10 day s.

In the ev ent of panic buy ing, impact especially on f orecourts would be signif icantly more sev ere. Panic buy ing results in

3 3 High Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents

BCM

National Emergency Plan f or

Fuel (NEP-F)

GLRF Fuel Resilience

Arrangements

Organisational Business

Continuity Plans.


Dev elopment of a

supporting plan f or f uel resilience in

the ev ent that the

NEP-F is not

ev oked 2

LA/HGP Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

substantially increased sales but the lev el of the increase

will v ary depending on the specif ic circumstances. During a

ballot f or a national strike of tanker driv ers, f or example, buy ing peaked just abov e double usual v olumes f or a short

period in spring 2012. This lev el of panic buy ing would lead

to f orecourt stock-outs which might be sev ere if increased

buy ing behav iour were to last f or 2 day s or more.

Replenishment of sites f ollowing a disruption could take

between 3 - 4 day s, largely depending on the extent of impact. The extent of disruption would depend on the extent

to which deliv eries of f uel to customers could be maintained

during the period of disruption.

(GMERA) plan


Gwent LRF Warning &


H33 National strike action by prison

of f icers

A single unof f icial strike by prison of ficers nationally lasting

more than 24 hours and resulting in a serious shortf all in

the number of personnel av ailable to operate and maintain

control of prisons, resulting in a real risk of concerted indiscipline in the public sector prison estate and/or serious

disruption to the Criminal Justice Sy stem.

2 1 Low

Gwent Police hav e a planned

Police Response to Industrial

Action by Prison Of f icers

which would be rev iewed if pending industrial action was

announced

None Identif ied

1

HGP Sept 2015

H35 Industrial action by key rail or London Underground workers

Strike action by key workers (e.g. signallers) resulting in the near-total shutdown of the national rail network or about ¾

of the London Underground (LU)network. In both cases

sev ere disruption would last f or a week as part of a 3 month

campaign.

1 2 Low

Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents

Industry Contingency plans in place and regularly monitored


Response Arrangements (GMERA) plan

1

BTP Sept 2015


HL42 Loss of cov er due to industrial

action by workers prov iding a serv ice critical to the

preserv ation of lif e (such as

emergency serv ice workers)

A number of three day strikes with signif icant support ov er a

two month period af f ecting a single emergency serv ice

4 1 Low

Under Further Consideration

1

LA/HGP Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

8. PUBLIC DISORDER


H57 Large scale public disorder in

multiple sites in a single city occurring concurrently ov er

sev eral day s

Large scale outbreaks of disorder in multiple sites

concurrently , within a single city ov er a number of day s.

2 2 Medium

Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents

National Police Co-ordination

centre (NPOCC)

BCM arrangements f or each

organisation



Gwent Police Major incident

plan


Police National Mutual Aid

Plan

Police Force Mobilisation Plan

Gwent LRF Warning &


2

HGP Sept 2015

9. INTERNATIONAL EVENTS


H13 Foreign nuclear accident

af f ecting the UK.

An ov erseas nuclear incident whose impact reaches the

south coast of the UK. The outcome will be dependent on

the weather conditions. Outcomes include: the potential requirement f or sheltering across some of southern England

with initial f ood restrictions (using the existing European

Council Food Interv ention Lev els (CFIL) criteria) ov er an

area of up to c.150,000km2. Surf ace water supplies and country side access restrictions would also be enf orced until

monitoring and clean-up are carried out.

1 2 Low

Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Multi-agency Oldbury of f -site

plan in place f or South

Gloucestershire .

Gwent LRF Oldbury

Extendibility Arrangements -

could be expanded to assist with an ov erseas incident



Gwent LRF Warning &

None at present 2

LA Sept 15






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date


Indiv idual Agency Generic Emergency Response Plans.

H37

Inf lux of destitute/vulnerable British Nationals who are not

normally resident in the UK

and cannot be accommodated

by f amily /friends

Up to 10,000 British Nationals (BNs) not normally resident in the UK, returning to UK within a 3-4 week period f ollowing

conv entional war, widespread civ il unrest or sustained

terrorism campaign against British and other Western

nationals of whom around 1% require statutory support. The consequence management of such support included

housing, health serv ices and access to welf are.

5 1 Low

Joint

Agency Arrangem

ents


1

RISK GROUP

Sept 2015

H54 Disruption to av iation as a consequence of v olcanic ash.

Volcanic ash incursions f or up to 25 day s resulting in sporadic and temporary closures of signif icant parts of UK

airspace f or up to a total of 15 day s during a three month

eruption period. The entire UK mainland and potentially

other parts of Europe could be af f ected f or up to 10 of these day s. A single period of closure within the 3 month eruptiv e

episode may last up to 12 consecutiv e day s, depending on

meteorological conditions.


Arrangem

ents


Met Of f ice Volcanic Ash

Adv isory Centre & Natural Hazards Partnership


Continuity Plans

No additional specif ic LRF

requirements 2

LA Sept 2015

10. INDUSTRIAL TECHNICAL FAILURE


H39 Failure of water inf rastructure or loss of drinking water or

accidental contamination with

a non-toxic contaminant

Loss of or non-av ailability f or drinking, of the piped water supply , f or a population of up to 350,000 f or more than 24

hours and up to two week due to an accident

2 3 High

Specif ic Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents f or distributio

n of

drinking water

Water Industry Act 1991

Security and Emergency

Measures Direction 1998

Gwent LRF Water Distribution

Plan

Water Supplier Continuity

Plans

Business Continuity Plans




1

LA/ Utilities

Group

Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Gwent LRF Warning &


H40 Disruption or loss of

telecommunication Sy stems

Loss of f ixed and mobile telecommunications (both v oice

serv ice and internet access) f or up to 100,000 people f or up to 72 hours. Domestic and business customers would be

af f ected; the impact on businesses would depend on the

extent of resilience purchased (larger companies are more

likely to hav e high lev els of resilience). Serv ice impacts would v ary and will depend on the nature of the incident –

f or both mobile and landline the geographical area af f ected

should be restricted to that serv ed by the exchange

(although impacts can sometimes be geographically remote f rom the incident), outage to landline v oice may also af fect

landline data (and v ice v ersa). A mobile data outage would

not necessarily af fect voice traffic (and v ice versa).

2 3 High Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Resilient Telecoms Group

work stream

Resilient Telecommunications

Plan f or the Gwent LRF

Loss of 999/112 Telecommunications

Contingency Plan

Resilience Direct implemented and operational

Sponsor Priv ilege Access

schemes & Co-ordinate

MTPAS Audit.


Continuity Plans




Gwent LRF Warning &


3

LA Sept 2015

H41 Total f ailure of GB’s national

electricity transmission

network

Total blackout f or up to 3-5 day s due to loss of the National

electricity Transmission Sy stem.. 3 day s is best time (e.g. in

summer). If there is damage to the network (say f rom storms) this timescale could be extended up to 5 day s.

Possible loss of lif e support machines, possible civ il unrest

due to no alarms or street lighting non-f unctioning gas

central heating sy stems, rail transport, water supplies and mobile (PMT) telecommunications etc. Back up generators

may be av ailable f or limited time f or indiv idual businesses.

.

3 3 High Joint

Agency

Arrangements

Critical Serv ices Business

Continuity Planning in Place

Multi-Agency Joint Operation

and Interv ention Programme

to combat copper cable thef ts

f rom utility company assets


Continuity Plans




Share best

practice on

Business Continuity

Planning

2

LA/WPD Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

Gwent LRF Warning &


H45 Disruption to Regional Electricity Distribution or

Transmission Network/Sy stem

Total f ailure of the electricity network ov er an entire region of GB occurring during the working week and lasting f or 24

hours.

3 3 High Joint Agency

Arrangem

ents

Critical Serv ices Business Continuity Planning in Place

Multi-Agency Joint Operation

and Interv ention Programme to combat copper cable thef ts

f rom utility company assets

Indiv idual Agency Business Continuity Plans


Response Arrangements Gwent LRF Recov ery Plan


Gwent LRF Warning &


2

LA/WPD Sept 2015

H59 Technological f ailure of the

banking sy stem

Af f ecting one major UK retail banking group, including all of

its operations, lasting f or 2-3 day s and disruption lasting f or

up to a week

3 2 Medium Gwent LRF Recov ery Plan

Under

Consideration

1

Sept 2015

11. RISKS SPECIFIC TO THE GWENT LRF AREA (‘L’ RISKS)

L72 Legacy Mine Workings Threat of a no-notice surf ace mining hazard causing up to 5 f atalities and up to 50 casualties.


Arrangem

ents



Gwent LRF Warning &


Fire Serv ice Urban Search & Rescue capabilities (USAR)

Normal Emergency Response Procedures

Major Incident Plans

2 LA Sept 2015






UK Risk

ID


hood Impact Risk

Rating

Capabilit

y

Required


place

Additional risk


Timescale)

Risk

priority

Lead

Responsibility

Review

Date

L.A Emergency Plans

Site Specif ic Plans in place where required

L73

Drought

Shortage of water f or people, agriculture, industry or the

env ironment country wide

4

3

High

Joint

Agency

Arrangem

ents

Welsh Water drought plan Regional drought plan South East Area (Natural Resources Wales)

drought plan Severe Weather Plan in Place Monitoring of drought order sites

and whole river network Regular liaison between water company and NRW Water Resource team Regional computer

modelling to predict pressure points in supply network Potential assessment and granting of Drought Orders & Permits

Potential Section 57 Spray Irrigation restrictions Potential publicity campaigns

Gwent LRF Water Distribution Plan Gwent Major Emergency




On-going annual

rev iew of South

East area drought

plan

On-going annual

rev iew of drought

monitoring program

Clarif ication of

roles and responsibilities in a

drought situation 3

NRW Sept 2015





7. Exclusions Table

The Gwent LRF RAWG has excluded the following hazard or a threat from the Community Risk Register as it was considered that either: the hazard or threat is not an issue covered by the Civil Contingencies Act 2004

the hazard or threat is greater than the planning assumptions anticipated for the Gwent LRF area the hazard or threat does not physically exist within the Gwent LRF area

Date of Revision: September 2014 Risk

Ref Code.

UK

Ref. Risk Category Sub-Category Hazard and threat description including scale

1.1 H1 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

Fire or explosion at a gas LPG (Liquef ied Petroleum

Gas) or LNG (Liquef ied Natural Gas) terminal (or associated onshore f eedstock pipeline) or f lammable

gas storage site

Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and 1500 casualties. Gas terminal event likely to be of short duration once feed lines are isolated; event at a storage site could last for days if the explosion damaged control equipment

1.4 H2 Industrial Accidents and Environmental Pollution

Fire or explosion at an onshore ethylene gas pipeline

Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and up to 1500 casualties


Fire or explosion at an oil refinery Up to 3km around site causing up to 500 fatalities and up to 1500 casualties. Depending on the location and size of the release, the f ire could burn for several days.

1.5 HL26 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Localised f ire or explosion at an onshore ethylene gas pipeline

Up to 1km around site, causing up to 150 fatalities and 450 casualties

1.7 HL27 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Localised f ire or explosion at an oil refinery Up to 1km around site, causing up to 150 fatalities and 500 casualties

1.2 HL1 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Fire or explosion at a gas terminal or involving

a gas pipeline Up to 3km around site causing up to 10 fatalities and 100 casualties

1.11 H5 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline Up to 1km around site causing up to 100 fatalities and up to 500 casualties.


Fire or explosions at an offshore oil/gas platform

Local to site causing up to 200 fatalities and up to 200 casualties.

1.15 H8 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Very Large Toxic Chemical Release

Up to 10km from site causing up to 2000 fatalities and 10000 casualties. Toxic release

could be due to loss of containment of chlorine – or a number of other chemicals, , e.g. anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, refrigerated ammonia, sulphur di-oxide (or tri-oxide) gas.

1.22 H12 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

Biological substance release from facility where

pathogens are handled deliberately (e.g. pathogen release from containment laboratory)

Up to 10 fatalities and serious injuries or offsite impact requiring up to 1000 hospital admissions

16 HL5 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Major Land Contamination Incident Pollution incident (e.g. chemical spillage) leading to persistent and/or extensiv e ef fect on land quality ,

major damage to terrestrial ecosy stems, property , amenity (i.e. tourism) v alue and major damage to

agriculture/commerce, serious impact on human health






Ref

Code.

UK


17 HL6 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Major Air Quality Incident

Pollution incident (for example uncontrolled emission from an industrial facility or

uncontrolled release of landfill gas) leading to persistent and/or extensive effect on air quality, major damage to local ecosystem, major effect on amenity (i.e. tourism) value and serious impact on human health

N/A H20 Severe Weather Flooding: Major Fluvial

A single large urban area (parts of London, Nottingham, Manchester, Leeds etc) f looded as a result of defence failure, causing a single location to be severely affected with high

risk to life and little response time. It is possible no w arnings would have been issued in time. Flooding of 10000+ properties for 7 to 21 days. Potential loss of life. Signif icant economic disruption and damage.

45 Gw ent Human Disease West Nile Virus

42 H22 Human Health Influenza type disease (epidemic)

A serious epidemic of much greater severity than the usual seasonal f lu. Weekly GP

consultations for new episodes of f lu-like illness likely to exceed 400 per 100,000 population per w eek in an average year.

49 Gw ent Plant Disease Major outbreak of a plant or pest disease

50 H28 Public Protest Large scale public protest Large scale public protests. Tens of thousands of highly motivated protesters, including a hard core of 2000 protesters, causing physical damage, requiring a nationally coordinated police response

51 H29 Public Protest Targeted disruptive protest, e.g. fuel protest Nationally co-ordinated protest that could generate shortages of essential supplies, and

lasts for up to 1 w eek

- H42 Transport Accidents Rapid accident sinking of a passenger vessel in, or close to UK w aters

Up to 500 fatalities and up to 1000 casualties

8.2 H52 International Events Influx of British Nationals from abroad follow ing an outbreak of an infectious disease

Up to 200,000 British Nationals (BNs) returning to UK w ithin a 4-6 w eek period following a serious outbreak of an infectious disease overseas.

89 HL43 International Events International security or pandemic health situation resulting in influx of British Nationals

Up to 10,000 British nationals deciding to return to the UK to a single region w ithin 4-6 w eek period follow ing serious regional conflict, a sustained terrorism campaign against

the UK and other Western nationals, or an uncontrolled outbreak of pandemic f lu.

69 Gw ent Business Failure Blood supply disruption

70 Gw ent International/national event Influx of UK residents into HGP area

71 Gw ent Large Scale Fires Forest / Mountains Excluded – covered by risk ref. 1.27 (HL33)

72 Gw ent Industrial Accident Mine Working

90 H50 Severe Weather Drought

Periodic w ater supplies interruptions affecting 385,000 businesses in London for up to 10 months. Emergency drought orders in place authorising rota cuts in supply according to needs of priority users as directed by SofS. The 2.24 million households in London w ould not be subjected to supply interruptions.

1.3 HL25 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Fire or explosion at a gas terminal as well as LPG,

LNG, and other gas onshore f eedstock pipeline and

f lammable gas storage sites

Up to 1km around site causing up to 50 fatalities and 150 casualties,

1.25 H15 Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Maritime Pollution (Crude oil) Release of 100,000 tonnes of crude oil into the sea, polluting up to 200km of coastline.






Ref

Code.

UK


9.1 H38 Industrial Technical Failure

Technical Failure of a critical upstream oil/gas

facility gas import pipeline, terminal, or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import reception facility leading to a disruption in upstream oil and gas production

Catastrophic accident destroying all or parts of a critical upstream facility and, in the

w orst case, taking months or more to restore normal levels of service. This could potentially result In up to 11% loss of gas supply to UK w hich could impact on pow er generation if demand w ere high. As 40% of pow er is generated by gas f ired stations then a reduction in generation might be felt. Dow nstream oil w ould not be so adversely

affected given alternative means of supply.

L74 N/A Gw ent Risks Flammable/explosive liquids into drainage systems

Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further w ork & development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions

L75 N/A Gw ent Risks Unexploded Bombs Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further w ork &

development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions

L76 N/A Gw ent Risks Arson Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further w ork &

development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions

L77 N/A Gw ent Risks Breach on the Monmouthshire &n Brecon Canal

Temporarily removed from the Public Community Risk Register to enable further w ork & development of the Risk Outcome Descriptions





Appendix 1 Likelihood and Impact Scoring Scales

Impact scoring scale – qualitative measures

Level Descriptor Categories of Impact Description of Impact

1 Limited Health Insignificant number of injuries or impact on health.

Social Insignificant number of person’s displaced and insignificant personal support required. Insignificant disruption to community services, including transport services and infrastructure.

Economic Insignificant impact on local economy.

Environment Insignificant impact on local environment. 2 Minor Health Small number of people affected no fatalities, and a small number of minor injuries with first aid treatment.

Social Minor damage to properties. Minor displacement of a small number of people for <24 hours and minor personal support required. Minor localised disruption to community services or infrastructure <24 hours.

Economic Negligible impact on local economy and cost easily absorbed. Environment Minor impact on environment with no lasting effects.

3 Moderate Health

Sufficient number of fatalities with some casualties requiring hospitalisation and medical treatment and activation of MAJAX, the automated intelligent alert notification system, procedures in one or more hospitals.

Social Damage that is confined to a specific location, or to a number of locations, but requires additional resources Localised displacement of >100 people for 1-3 days.

Economic Limited impact on local economy with some short-term loss of production, with possible additional clean-up

costs.

Environment Limited impact on environment with short-term or long-term effects. 4 Significant

Health Significant number of people in affected area impacted with multiple fatalities, multiple serious or extensive

injuries, significant hospitalisation and activation of MAJAX procedures across a number of hospitals.

Social

Significant damage that requires support for local responders with external resources. 100 to 500 people in danger and displaced for longer than 1 week. Local responders require external resources

to deliver personal support. Significant impact on and possible breakdown of some local community services.

Economic Significant impact on local economy with medium-term loss of production Significant extra clean-up and recovery costs.

Environment Significant impact on environment with medium to long-term effects.





Level Descriptor Categories of Impact Description of Impact

5 Catastrophic Health

Very large numbers of people in affected area(s) impacted with significant numbers of fatalities, large number of people requiring hospitalisation with serious injuries with longer-term effects.

Social

Extensive damage to properties and built environment in affected area requiring major demolition. General and widespread displacement of more than 500 people for prolonged duration and extensive personal

support required. Serious damage to infrastructure causing significant disruption to, or loss of, key services for prolonged period.

Community unable to function without significant support.

Economic Serious impact on local and regional economy with some long-term, potentially permanent, loss of production

with some structural change. Extensive clean-up and recovery costs.

Environment Serious long-term impact on environment and/or permanent damage.

Explanation of categories of impact

Category Explanation

Health Encompassing direct health impacts (numbers of people affected, fatalities, injuries, human illness or injury, health damage) and indirect health impacts that arise because of strain on the health service.

Social Encompassing the social consequences of an event, including availability of social welfare provision; disruption of facilitie s for transport; damage to property; disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel; disruption of an electronic or o ther system of communication homelessness, evacuation and avoidance behaviour; and public disorder due to anger, fear, and/or lack of trust in the authori ties.

Economic Encompassing the net economic cost, including both direct (e.g. loss of goods, build ings, infrastructure) and indirect (e.g. loss of business, increased demand for public services) costs.

Environment Encompassing contamination or pollution of land, water or air with harmful biological / chemical / radioactive matter or oil, flooding, or disruption or destruction of plant or animal life.

Note:

Strictly, levels 1 and 2 of the impact scale are likely to fall below the threshold for an emergency. Consequently, there may be no statutory requirement to plan for events that score 1 or 2 on the impact scale. This scale recognises that, to demonstrate a thorough analysis, Category 1 responders will wish to include in their risk assessment certain risks with impacts at these levels.





Likelihood scoring scale

Level Descriptor Likelihood over 5 years Likelihood over 5 years

1 Low > 0.005% > 1 in 20,000 chance

2 Medium Low > 0.05% > 1 in 2,000 chance

3 Medium > 0.5% > 1 in 200 chance

4 Medium High > 5% > 1 in 20 chance

5 High > 50% > 1 in 2 chance

Based on the model likelihood and impact scoring scales published in “2007 Local Risk Assessment Guidance” (Civil Contingencies Secretariat)

Gwent LRF Risk Priority Scoring Scale

(The GLRF considers the priorities below when formulating the 3 year multi-agency LRF work programme.)

The criteria are used to help prioritise the multi-agency work required where demand for treatment of the risk outstrips the resources currently available.

Risk Priority Action Timescale

Very High 5 Immediate Action (Yr1 work programme)*

Multi Agency Specific Planning Complete within 12 months or sooner. Re-evaluate risk priority on completion

High 4 Action asap after priority 5 risks have been addressed

Multi Agency Generic Planning, as a minimum (perhaps the need for specific

planning) Yr2 of work programme or sooner

Medium 3 Tolerate if additional resources (cost, time and effort) outweigh the risk reduction gains/improvements

Generic Planning Yr3 work programme Continually monitor for change

Low 2 Accept (where possible, incorporate elements into other generic work areas)

Regularly monitor for change

Very Low 1 No further action until next review Review when the Community Risk Register is reviewed





Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

LIKELIHOOD

Appendix 2 Risk Rating Matrix

Definitions of Risk Rating

Very high (VH) risk These are classed as primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such

that they must be treated as a high priority. This may mean that strategies should be developed to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also that mitigation in the form of (mult i-agency) planning, exercising and training for these hazards should be put in place and

the risk monitored on a regular frequency. Consideration should be given to planning being specific to the risk rather than generic.

High (H) risk These risks are classed as significant. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are sufficiently serious to warrant

appropriate consideration after those risks classed as ‘very high’. Consideration should be given to the development of strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also that mitigation in the form of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising and training

should be put in place and monitored on a regular frequency.

Medium (M) risk These risks are less significant, but may cause upset and inconvenience in the short term. These risks should be monitored to ensure that they are being appropriately managed and consideration given to their being managed under generic emergency

planning arrangements.

Low (L) risk These risk are both unlikely to occur and not significant in their impact. They should be managed using normal or generic planning arrangements and require minimal monitoring and control unless subsequent risk assessments show a subsequent

change, prompting a move to another risk category.

Based on the model risk rating matrix published in Annex 4F of “Emergency Preparedness” (HM Government, 2005)

IMP

AC

T

Lim

ited

M

inor

M

odera

te

Sig

nific

ant

C

ata

str

ophic

(1

)

(

2)

(

3)

(

4)

(5)

Key:

Very High

High

Medium

Low



of 50


Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

LIKELIHOOD

IMP

AC

T

L

imited

Min

or

Modera

te

Sig

nific

ant

Cata

str

ophic

(1)

(

2)

(3

)

(

4)

(

5)

Key: Very High

High

Medium

Low

HL4

, HL10,

HL20,

H46, HL7,

H14 H30,

H37 HL42,

H17 ,H54

H56, HL19,

HL24, L73

H18, H48,

HL17

H23 H19

H55, HL16,

HL18, H41,

H9, HL2, HL3,

H24, H31, H45

H25, HL43, H59

H11 H33

HL33, H57

H4, HL28, HL14, HL22,

H39, H40

H21 H10, H44, HL21,

H16, H60

H7, HL30, HL8, HL9, HL11, HL34, HL37, HL23,

L72

HL13, H58,

H35, H13





Appendix 3 2013 NRR Threat Matrix

Ove

rall r

ela

tive

im

pa

ct

sco

re

5

Catastrophic Terrorist Attacks

4

3

Cyber Attacks:

Infrastructure

Attacks on infrastructure

Smaller scale CBR attacks

Attacks on crowded places

Attacks on the transport system

2

1

Cyber Attacks: data confidentiality

Low (1)

Medium low (2)

Medium (3)

Medium high (4)

High (5)

Relative plausibility of occurring in the next 5 years





For further information please contact:

Gwent Local Resilience Forum Co-ordinator Force Planning Department Gwent Police Headquarters Croesyceiliog Cwmbran Torfaen NP44 2XJ LRF Co-ordinator Tel: 01633 642549 Email: [email protected]

Torfaen Emergency Management Service: Civic Centre Pontypool Torfaen NP4 6YB Bob Crimp, Head of Corporate Risk & Emergency Management. Tel: 01495 766071 Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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