GUNNAR LORENZ HEAD OF UNIT – NETWORKS
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GUNNAR LORENZ HEAD OF UNIT – NETWORKS POWER CHOICES Pathways to carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by 2050 5 November 2009
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GUNNAR LORENZ HEAD OF UNIT – NETWORKS. POWER CHOICES Pathways to carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by 2050. 5 November 2009. CEO Declaration 18 March 2009. Carbon-neutral power in Europe by 2050 Cost-efficient, reliable supply through an integrated market - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of GUNNAR LORENZ HEAD OF UNIT – NETWORKS
GUNNAR LORENZ
HEAD OF UNIT – NETWORKS
POWER CHOICESPathways to carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by 2050
5 November 2009
CEO Declaration18 March 2009
1. Carbon-neutral power in Europe by 2050
2. Cost-efficient, reliable supply through an integrated market
3. Energy efficiency & electricity use as solutions to mitigate climate change
Carbon-neutral power drivesdeep GHG cuts
POWER CHOICES SCENARIO
• 75% GHG cut across whole EU economy
• CO2 price applied uniformly to all sectors
• Power becomes major transport fuel
• All power generation options available(with CCS commercially available as of
2025)
• Major policy push in energy efficiency
• No binding RES target post-2020
• CO2 price is the only driver for low-carbon generation post 2030
75% GHG cut EU-wideCO2 emissions index (1990=100)
0
20
40
60
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Decrease in energy demand
Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies
More electricity = less energy
Need for all low-carbon generation options
In 2050
RES:• 38% of total mix (1800TWh)• Wind: 56% of RES
Nuclear: • 27% of total mix (1300TWh)
CCS: • 30% of total mix (1414TWh)
Other fossils:• 5% of total mix (231TWh)
Carbon emissions from power fall by 90%
Deep emission cuts take place between
2025-2040.
But investments areneeded NOW!
NOW: 1423 MtCO2
2050: 128 MtCO2
Significant investments…… but a reasonable cost for society
Investment needed in power generation by 2050: €2 trillion
Power Generation Investment (billion €)
0,0
500,0
1000,0
1500,0
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2500,0
Power Choices
2025-2050
2000-2025
What if…
CCS delayedto 2035
1/3rd of onshore wind power not built
Nuclear phase-out reversed
All technologies are really needed
• 10-year delay of CCS = delayed reductions from power & whole economy!
• More nuclear = more rapid reduction curve
• 1/3 onshore wind not built = more CCS & nuclear.Off-shore too expensive to fill gap
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
200
400
600
800
1000
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1400
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Mt
CO2 emissions from power, EU-27
CCS delay
Power ChoicesNuclear+
Key outcomes
• EU carbon-neutral power by 2050 is realistic
-75% GHG on whole economy can be reached
• All power generation options needed• Electrification of the demand side essential• Significant investment but at acceptable cost to society
• The major CO2 reductions in power are achieved from 2025 onwards
• CCS delayed &/or nuclear phase-out = risk
Policy recommendations
Technology choices
• Enable the use of all low-carbon options for power generation
• Encourage public support for modern energy infrastructure: onshore wind, CCS, smart grids…
Demand-side
• Facilitate electrification of road transport and spatial heating & cooling
• Major policy push in energy efficiency
Cost
• Significant investment cost but reduction in share of GDP
• Recognise that cost of technology deployment differs substantially across
the EU
CO2 reductions
• Support CO2 market to deliver cap at least cost
• All sectors to internalise cost of GHGs • Promote an international agreement
on climate
BACKUP SLIDES
Synergy between electricity generationand demand
Demand side shift to electrotechnologies
Carbon-neutral supply of electricity
CCS Renewables Nuclear
Key to deep CO2 cuts:
