Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Implementation Plan

Alan Lewitus

NOAA/NOS/NCCOS

Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research

GCOOS Board of Directors Meeting19 Aug 2008

2

2000

CENR State-of-knowledge

report

2001

Hypoxia Action Plan

2008

EPA Science Advisory Board Hypoxia Report

2008

Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan

Management Driver:

Action Plans for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of

Mexico

Future Rounds of Adaptive

Management

http://www.epa.gov/msbasin/taskforce/pdf/ghap2008.pdf

3

2001 & 2008 Action Plan Coastal Goal

Reduce the 5-year running average of the hypoxic zone areal extent to less than 5000 km2 (1928 mi2) by the year 2015...

…(by reducing) the annual discharge of nitrogen into the Gulf. [2001]

…(by reducing) the annual discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus into the Gulf. [2008]

Coastal Goal Metric

Need for Extension of Monitoring

• Action Plan (2001): “greatly expand the long-term monitoring program for the hypoxic zone, including greater temporal and spatial data collection, measurements of macro-nutrient and micronutrient concentrations, and hypoxia…”

• Monitoring, Modeling, and Research Workgroup Report (MMR, 2004): “…(monitoring) efforts need to be increased in frequency, at a minimum monthly from May through September. To develop a more complete understanding of ecosystem dynamics, selected sites should be monitored year-round. The spatial boundaries of some of these existing monitoring efforts should be expanded to collect data for defining boundary conditions in modeling efforts."

Summit on Gulf Hypoxic Zone Monitoring

Summit on Long-Term Monitoring of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone: Developing the Implementation Plan for an Operational Observation System

http://www.ngi.msstate.edu/hypoxia/janconference.html

Summit Outcomes

• White Paper to Improve Monitoring of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone in Support of the Hypoxia Task Force’s Coastal Goal

• White Paper: Compilation of a Hypoxia Data Inventory

• Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Implementation Plan

http://www.ngi.msstate.edu/hypoxia/whitePaper.html

2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan – Action 9:

“Continue to reduce uncertainty about the relationship between N and P loads and the formation, extent, duration, and severity of the hypoxic zone, to best monitor progress toward, and inform adaptive management of the Coastal Goal”

Need for Extension of Monitoring

• A long-term and sustainable hypoxic zone monitoring program, with adequate spatial and temporal coverage.

– Increase number of shelf-wide surveys with greater area surveyed

– Additional in situ platform-based continuous monitoring devices (observing systems)

– Mechanism to transition monitoring from a research to an operational framework

– Improved predictive modeling capabilities

Critical Needs for Action 9

Coastal Goal Metric

Mid-summer Annual Assessment of Hypoxic Zone Areal Extent

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1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

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6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

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85

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90

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91

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92

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01

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Long-Term Average

Action Plan Goal

Dea

d Z

one

Are

a (s

q m

i)

Data Source: NOAA/N. Rabalais, LUMCON

5-Year Average

Management Drivers

Priority 1 (Core System Requirements)

Provide sufficient monitoring data to ensure that management is adequately informed in efforts to achieve the Coastal Goal of the Action Plan

Management Drivers

Priority 2

Assess annual changes in the magnitude, seasonality, duration, and distribution of hypoxia, and relate these to management activities that affect nutrient loading and other influences on hypoxia

Management Drivers

Priority 3

• Provide adequate data for predictive models to develop accurate forecasts of hypoxia given alternative management targets for nutrient reduction and alternative scenarios of climate change

Management Drivers

Priority 3 (continued)

• Determine the relationship between hypoxic zone magnitude, timing, and distribution, and the distribution, production, and health of ecologically and commercially important finfish and shellfish [Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan Action 5]

Core System Requirements

• Extend spatial coverage of shelf-wide surveys• Include hypoxic volume measurements on shelf-wide

surveys• Increase number of shelf-wide surveys • Fill in temporal gaps of shelf-wide surveys with cross-

shelf transects• Add deployments of AUVs with dissolved oxygen

sensors • Dissemination of relevant data and findings to

management community • Archival of the data in NODC

Transect C

Transect F

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*

*

*

*

*

*C6C/CSI-6

CSI-9

C

D

System Requirement:

Extend spatial coverage of shelf-wide surveys

T

S

Local, MissR or Pearl R water some Mobile Bay on E

MissR or PearlR

water

Mis

s R

wat

er

●USM3M01

System Requirement:Increase number of surveys

Currently:

• one mid-summer shelf-wide survey

• monthly sampling at Transect C south of Terrebonne Bay, and bimonthly sampling at Transect F off the Atchafalaya River (11 cruises/year)

Implementation Plan:

• 8 surveys/year (Apr, May, Jun, Jul (2), Aug (2), Sep)

• Maintain current design for transects

Pilot study – proof of concept for application of dissolved oxygen sensor

System Requirement:Add deployments of AUVs

System Requirement:Create a portal to maximize accessibility to, and

exchange of, hypoxia data

• Expand Hypoxia Watch website to host national hypoxia observations

• Improve discovery, access, transport, and archive of data

• Data aggregate from sensor network – connect to CZRM

• Website geospatial mapping capability

System Requirements: Outreach program

• Maintain Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Stakeholder Committee (GHMSC) and promote coordination through workshops

• Maintain GHMSC website• Coordinate outreach activities between GHMSC and

Hypoxia Task Force, GOMA, GCOOS, etc. outreach committees

• Promote mechanisms for increasing awareness of public/stakeholders

• Promote mechanisms for dissemination findings and data to managers

Implementation Plan Committees

Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring Stakeholder Committee

Joe Stinus (NOAA), Chair Ann Jochens (TAMU)

Scott Phipps (AL DCNR) Charles Kovach (FL DEP)

Dugan Sabins (LA DEQ) Kris Pintado (LA DEQ)

Gregory DuCote (LA DNR) Henry Folmar (MS DEQ)

Mark Fisher (TX CEQ) Ed Buskey (U. Texas)

http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/activities/gulf-hypoxia-stakeholders/view

Priority 2: System requirements needed to assess annual changes in hypoxia, and relate these to management activities that affect nutrient loading and other influences on hypoxia

• Maintain current observation systems and increase number of observation systems

• Outfit existing observing systems with dissolved oxygen sensors

Tier 2 System Requirements

Increase number of observing systems

Frequency of mid -summer bottom-water hypoxia, 1985 -2002

LUMCON/LSU WAVCIS/BIO2LUMCON/LSU potential sitesTAMU siteUSM site = USM3Suggested additional sites

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25%

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

Transect CTransect A

14

Transect F

Frequency of mid -summer bottom-water hypoxia, 1985 -2002

LUMCON/LSU WAVCIS/BIO2LUMCON/LSU potential sitesTAMU siteUSM site = USM3Suggested additional sites

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25%

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

Transect CTransect A

14

Transect F

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

TerrebonneBay

Atchafalaya RL.Calcasieu

Mississippi RSabine L.

>75%>50%>25%<25%

>75%>50%>25%<25% 50 km

Transect CTransect A

14

Transect F

Add 2 Buoys East of Mississippi River

System Requirements – Priority 3: Improve understanding of causes and impacts of hypoxic zone

• On survey cruises, AUV deployments, observing systems, and from remote sensing (satellite imagery), collection of physical, chemical, and biological data that support models determining causes of hypoxia.

• Increase number of USGS fixed-site monitoring stations in lower basin, and include nitrate sensors.

• Predictive model development on causes and impacts (including bioeconomic model).

• Benthic condition index coupled with SEAMAP groundfish survey data.

Costs – Priority 1 (Core)

System Requirements – expand spatial and temporal coverage of shelf-wide surveys, include hypoxic volume:

Currently FY10Cost/survey $158K $208K# surveys/year X 1 X 8Annual cost $158K $1,664K

Costs – Priority 1 (Core)

System Requirements – expand spatial and temporal coverage of shelf-wide surveys, include hypoxic volume:

Currently FY10Cost/survey $158K $208K# surveys/year X 1 X 8Annual cost $158K $1,664K

Costs – Priority 1 (Core)

System Requirement – maintain cross-shelf transects:

Currently FY10Cost/cruise $13.5K $13.5K# cruises/year X 11 X 10Annual cost $148.5K $135K

Costs – Priority 1 (Core)

System Requirement – Add deployments of AUVs with dissolved oxygen sensors:

Currently none deployed; estimated cost of proof of concept pilot study (including purchase of AUV) is $250K for FY10

Costs – Priority 1 (Core)

System Requirement – Create a portal to maximize accessibility to, and exchange of, hypoxia data:

Five FTEs (4 NCDDC, 1 LUMCON) needed for total of $700k/year.

Costs – Priority 1 (Core)

System Requirement – Outreach program to promote effective dissemination of information and data to managers and communications to increase awareness of hypoxia

Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Stakeholder Committee (GHMSC) meeting and workshops = $250K;

Coordinator of GHMSC education and outreach activities = 1 FTE @ $150K.

Total for FY10: $400K

Total FY10 Costs – Priority 1 (Core)

• Shelf-wide surveys: $1,664K• Cross-shelf transects: $135K• AUV pilot study: $250K • Data management: $700K • Outreach: $400K

• TOTAL: $3,149K

Costs – Priority 2

System Requirements – maintain and expand observing systems:

Current FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14# Sys. 7 9 11 13 13 13Mainten. $875 $875 $1,125 $1,375 $1,625 $1,625New sys. n/a $600 $600 $600 n/a n/aTotal $875 $1,375 $1,725 $1,975 $1,625 $1,625

Priority 3: System requirements needed to Improve understanding of causes and impacts of hypoxic zone

Total FY10 Costs = $2.25M

Implementation Plan Committees

Steering Committee Technical Committee

Alan Lewitus (NOAA), co-chair Jim Ammerman (Rutgers)

Nancy Rabalais (LUMCON), co-chair Bob Arnone (NRL)

Phil Bass (EPA) Brenda Babin (LUMCON)

Russ Beard (NOAA) Charlie Crawford (USGS)

Rick Greene (EPA) Steve DiMarco (TAMU)

Ann Jochens (TAMU) Jim Hagy (EPA)

Steve Lohrenz (USM) Sharon Mesick (NOAA)

David Shaw (MSU) Rich Patchen (NOAA)

Janice Ward (USGS) Nancy Rabalais (LUMCON)

Dave Whitall (NOAA)