Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency

Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency

Regional Level Micro-Simulation for

Multimodal Evacuation: The New Orleans Case Study

Brian Wolshon, Ph.D., P.E.Louisiana State University

2010 Gulf States Hurricane Conference June 3, 2010

Acknowledgements• Financial support for this project provided by the

United States Department of Transportation through the Federal Highway Administration’s Transportation Model Improvement Program

• Additional technical support provided by the New Orleans Regional Planning Commission, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Louisiana State University, and the LSU-UNO UTC

• Continuing work is currently being funded by the United Stated Department of Homeland Security through the DHS Centers of Excellence Program


Evacuation Traffic Simulation

• Has proven value• Permits bottlenecks to be identified and

potential solutions to be analyzed before they become problems

• Gives quantitative MOE results to decision-makers

• Allows effects of alternative strategies and adverse conditions to be assessed without consequence


Evacuation Modeling Spectrum

From: “Structuring Modeling and Simulation Analyses for Evacuation Planning and Operations”

By: Hardy, Wunderlich, Bunchand, and Smith

Reg

ionC

orridor

MACRO MESO MICRO

ETIS

VISSIM

CORSIMTRANSIMS

HEADSUP

PCDYNEV

OREMS

CUBE Avenue

DYNASMART-P

TransCAD

EMME/2 Integration 2.0 DYNAMIT

Paramics

Recognized Limitations

• Existing traffic/transportation simulation systems are not created to model evacuation conditions– Scale (e.g., number of vehicles)– Scope (e.g. duration, geographic area)

• Existing models do not permit the modeling and simulation of multiple modes of transportation simultaneously

• Most models are not able to give analysts the MOE’s they’d like or decision-makers the answers to questions they pose

• Limited understanding and development of underlying behaviors of evacuation travel for different evacuee and mode types


Assisted Evacuations

• Evacuation planning has historically been targeted at persons with personal vehicles

• A substantial percentage of potential vulnerable populations do not have personal vehicles

• Plans to evacuate “carless” populations in many locations have been created relatively recently or are currently in development

• There have been few actual activations to gain knowledge and experience, nor tests, drills or simulations to evaluate potential weakness and needs


TRANSIMS System• Incorporates aspects of planning and operations• Model large geographical regions and large

numbers of travelers• Model populations, travel activities, routing, and

analyses it with a microsimulator • Open source and available• Effort and expertise required to code and run • Issues of verification, validation, and calibration• Hardware and software requirements• History, experience, and acceptance within the

professional transportation community• Not developed for the purpose of evacuation


TRANSIMS Structure• Network Input

– Structure and characteristics of the transportation network (control, capacity, etc.) and activity locations

• Population Synthesizer– Creates a disaggregate synthetic population based on aggregate

census zonal information• Activity Generator

– Travel surveys or observation of past evacuations• Router

– Spatial and temporal travel behavior and route assignments• Microsimulator

– Tracks and compiles movements and statistics of each agent (vehciles & peds)

• Visualizer– 3rd party developer Balfour Technologies Inc.


LSU Study - Approach

• Step 1 – Network development• Step 2 - “Base Model” validation and

calibration based on 2005 Katrina evacuation• Step 3 - Code “New” New Orleans multimodal

plan• Step 4 - “Base Model” validation and

calibration based on 2005 Katrina evacuation• Step 5 - Code and test alternative plans and

ideas


Map Source: LaDOTDhttp://www.dotd.state.la.us/maps

Jefferson Parish Bus Routes

Study Questions

• Proof-of-Concept - Can TRANSIMS be used for evacuation analysis? Are its results reasonable?

• Develop a variety and range of hazard-response scenarios

• How many buses might be needed under various scenarios? What routes should they take?

• Potential to estimate the number of location of evacuees

• Examine the potential of alternate plans


Station 42 Station15

Station 27

Station54

Station88

Station67

Station18

I -12

I -12

I -10

US-61 I -10

I -10

US-61

I -10

I -55

I -59

I -55

Lake Pontchartrian Causeway

NewOrleans

BatonRouge

Hammond North to Mississippi

North


Volume and SpeedWB I-10 in LaPlace

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Time (Hr)

Volu

me

(ave

. veh

/hr/

ln)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sim. Vol.Obs. Vol.Sim. Speed

Network Link 58296 (DOTD Station 54 --2 miles W of US 51/I-55 Jct)

Spee

d (m

ph)


Station 27

Station54

Station88

Station67

Station18

I -12

I -12

I -10

US-61 I -10

I -10

US-61

I -10

I -55

I -59

I -55


NewOrleans

BatonRouge


North


325

2925

5525

8125

1072

513

325

1592

518

525

2112

523

725

2632

528

925

3152

534

125

3672

539

325

4192

544

525

4712

549

725

5232

554

925

5752

560

125

6272

565

325

6792

570

525

7312

575

725

7832

5

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

25-30

20-25

15-20

10-15

5-10

0-5

LaPlace Data Station

10:0

0am

- Su

nday

Baton RougeNew Orleans

Westbound I-10 Traffic Speed


Station 27

Station54

Station88

Station67

Station18

I -12

I -12

I -10

US-61 I -10

I -10

US-61

I -10

I -55

I -59

I -55


NewOrleans

BatonRouge


North


Volume and SpeedEB I-10 in Slidell

Prior to NB I-59 Contraflow Entry

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Time (Hr)

Volu

me

(ave

. veh

/hr/

ln)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Spee

d (m

ph)

Network Link 56039 (Near DOTD Station 67 -- 1 mile S of I-12 , I-59 Jct)

Conclusions

• Evidence that TRANSIMS can be an effective tool for evacuation modeling and planning

• Constituent models can be useful in whole or when used separately

• Development of the TRANSIMS model has added benefits beyond evacuation

• User interface for coding and output results was cumbersome


http://www.trb.org/


Station 27

Station54

Station88

Station67

Station18

I -12

I -12

I -10

US-61 I -10

I -10

US-61

I -10

I -55

I -59

I -55


NewOrleans

BatonRouge


North


Volume and SpeedWB US 190 in Baton Rouge

0

100

200

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800

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Time (Hr)

Volu

me

(ave

. veh

/hr/

ln)

0

10

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50

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70


Network Link 57784 (DOTD Station 18 -- 1.1 miles E of O'Neal Ln Jct)

Spee

d (m

ph)

US 190 WESTBOUNDDenham Springs@Amite River Bridge

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 12 24 12 24 12 24 12 24 12 24

Flow

Rat

e (v

ph)

Ave. of Prior 3 WeeksKatrina Evacuation

Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday

Avenues of Future Study

• “Adequacy” of transit plan and resources • Potential benefits of early closure of public

institutions and services• Interface of local and regional bus services• Evaluation of potential “phased” evacuation

plans• Potential use of transit-only lanes for moving

special-needs evacuees on evacuation routes


Demo Video

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Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency

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