Guiding Douglas-fir Seed Selection in Europe Under ...m.… · Spain France & Belgium Central...
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Guiding Douglas-fir Seed Selection in Europe Under Changing Climates Miriam Isaac-Renton 1 , David Roberts 1 , Andreas Hamann 1 , Heinrich Spiecker 2 Funding Acknowledgements: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Commission of the European Union, Human Resources and Skills De- velopment Canada, and the Universities of Alberta and Freiburg. 1) Dept. of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Canada 2) Chair of Forest Growth, University of Freiburg, Germany * [email protected] Introduction Douglas-fir is an important tree species in its native range in North America, and in Europe, where it is was introduced more than 185 years ago for its high productivity and wood qual - ity. Many early plantations have known seed source origins, which today allow them to serve as a unique experimental test bed to investigate how trees react to being transferred to new climate conditions. Methods We evaluate more than 700 Douglas-fir provenances from 13 North American re - gions at 120 European test sites (Fig 1). Model predictions of where the 13 North American regions find their best climate match in Europe under current and future climate were carried out with the RandomForest ensemble classifier, a widely used bioclimate envelope modeling approach. 7 6 9 8 5 2 1 3 4 97 98 96 91 92 95 93 86-90 94 62 32 31 99 10 11 30 35-40 41-47 48-59 70-75 33 34 19-21 29 22-28 69 67-68 76 83 85 78 77 81 80 79 84 82 18 60 61 12 13 17 16 15 14 65 63 64 66 120 117 118 119 108 107 109 110 112 115 113 114 116 101 100 106 102 105 111 103 Finland Norway Scotland S. UK N. Coast Poland E. Germany Spain France & Belgium Central Germany S. Germany Italy Central Europe Coastal Balkans Balkans Romania Turkey Planting Sites Spain 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 Precipitation (mm) JFMAMJJASOND Southern UK 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 Precipitation (mm) JFMAMJJASOND Scotland 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 Precipitation (mm) JFMAMJJASOND Poland 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 JFMAMJJASOND Temperature (°C) North Coast 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 JFMAMJJASOND France & Belgium 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 JFMAMJJASOND Finland 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 Temperature (°C) JFMAMJJASOND Central Germany 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 Precipitation (mm) JFMAMJJASOND Central Europe 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 JFMAMJJASOND Balkans 300 20 10 0 -10 200 100 0 JFMAMJJASOND Temperature (°C) Results & Applications Model predictions of optimal climate matches for western and central Europe con - formed well with observed provenance performance (Fig 2, first 10 rows, Finland to Italy). Under eastern Europe’s continental climates, however, the results were mixed (Fig 2, rows 11-17), and a safe strategy would be to use slightly less pro - ductive provenances with reasonable climate matches (provenances that are both above average in Fig 2a and toward the right in Fig 2b). Given adequate model performance at least for western Europe, model projec - tions for observed and projected climate change may provide guidance for Doug - las-fir plantation forestry (Fig 3). Both recent climate change trends and projec - tions for the 2020s suggest that European foresters should switch to provenances from more southern or drier origins in North America. 0.0001 0.001 0.1 1 Random forest class probability Turkey Romania Balkans Coastal Balkans Central Europe Poland Eastern Germany Italy Spain France & Belgium Southern Germany Central Germany North Coast Southern UK Scotland Norway Finland Turkey Romania Balkans Coastal Balkans Central Europe Poland Eastern Germany Italy Spain France & Belgium Southern Germany Central Germany North Coast Southern UK Scotland Norway Finland 4 1 4 8 14 25 9 10 13 3 2 2 7 2 8 5 4 8 48 35 81 200 177 18 89 121 72 58 27 69 11 57 10 31 0.46 0.52 0.43 0.31 0.27 0.17 0.35 0.30 0.20 0.33 0.48 0.50 0.37 0.68 0.32 0.64 0.60 Nsites Nprov SE 0.47 1.16 0.41 0.76 -0.74 0.42 0.80 1.23 0.53 0.78 0.86 -1.67 -0.74 0.04 -1.43 -1.95 1.46 1 st -1.15 0.76 0.63 0.44 1.56 1.18 0.72 -0.27 0.68 1.26 0.38 0.76 0.79 0.91 1.16 0.78 0.45 2 nd 0.67 0.34 0.54 0.91 -0.84 0.75 1.12 0.95 -0.26 -0.34 -0.85 1.46 0.40 -0.12 -0.71 0.43 -0.78 3 rd −2 0 1 2 −1 Standard deviation from mean height Observed Predicted BC Coast WA Coast OR Coast CA Low Elevation WA Dry Coast OR Dry Coast WA Coast Cascades OR Coast Cascades CA High Elevation Interior Cascades Interior North Interior Interior South Provenances Fig 1. Map of Europe with numbered planting sites coloured by region, with cli- mate diagrams displaying average monthly temperature (°C) and average Fig 2.The upper dot plot (a) displays the observed perfor- mance of North American populations in European re- gions. Performance is reported in units of standard deviation from the site mean. Statistics on the right indicate the number of planting the number of provenances and the aver- age standard error for dot plot entries in each row. The lower dot plot (b) displays the climate match (better match on right) of the North American populations in the European regions. The columns on the right indicate the productivity gain or loss if the first, second, or third model recommendation would be planted based on provenance trial performance. A2 2080 A2 2050 A2 2020 1995-2009 Observed 1961-1990 Observed Provenances BC Coast WA Coast OR Coast CA Low Elevation WA Dry Coast OR Dry Coast WA Coast Cascades OR Coast Cascades CA High Elevation Interior Cascades Interior North Interior Interior South Fig 3. Predictions of climatically best matching North American Douglas-fir populations as projected using a biocli- matic envelope model for past climate (1961-1990), a recent 15-year climate average (1995-2009) and the 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080's under an A2 scenario. Objective Here, we test if models developed to guide assisted migra - tion of Douglas-fir in North America under climate change can accurately predict the success of provenance transfers to Europe. We then use a validated model to guide seed transfer under climate change in Europe.
Transcript of Guiding Douglas-fir Seed Selection in Europe Under ...m.… · Spain France & Belgium Central...
Guiding Douglas-fir Seed Selection in Europe Under Changing Climates
Miriam Isaac-Renton1, David Roberts1, Andreas Hamann1, Heinrich Spiecker2
Funding Acknowledgements: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Commission of the European Union, Human Resources and Skills De-velopment Canada, and the Universities of Alberta and Freiburg.
1) Dept. of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Canada2) Chair of Forest Growth, University of Freiburg, Germany* [email protected]
IntroductionDouglas-fir is an important tree species in its native range in North America, and in Europe,
where it is was introduced more than 185 years ago for its high productivity and wood qual-
ity. Many early plantations have known seed source origins, which today allow them to
serve as a unique experimental test bed to investigate how trees react to being transferred
to new climate conditions.
MethodsWe evaluate more than 700 Douglas-fir provenances from 13 North American re-
gions at 120 European test sites (Fig 1). Model predictions of where the 13 North
American regions find their best climate match in Europe under current and future
climate were carried out with the RandomForest ensemble classifier, a widely
used bioclimate envelope modeling approach.
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35-4041-47
48-59
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FinlandNorwayScotlandS. UKN. Coast
PolandE. GermanySpainFrance & BelgiumCentral GermanyS. Germany
ItalyCentral EuropeCoastal BalkansBalkansRomaniaTurkey
Planting Sites
Spain300 20
10
0
-10
200
100
0Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)J F M A M J J A S O N D
Southern UK300 20
10
0
-10
200
100
0Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Scotland300 20
10
0
-10
200
100
0Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Poland300 20
10
0
-10
200
100
0J F M A M J J A S O N D
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
North Coast300 20
10
0
-10
200
100
0J F M A M J J A S O N D
France & Belgium300 20
10
0
-10
200
100
0J F M A M J J A S O N D
Finland300 20
10
0
-10
200
100
0
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Central Germany300 20
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0
-10
200
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0Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Central Europe300 20
10
0
-10
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0J F M A M J J A S O N D
Balkans300 20
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-10
200
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0J F M A M J J A S O N D
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
Results & ApplicationsModel predictions of optimal climate matches for western and central Europe con-
formed well with observed provenance performance (Fig 2, first 10 rows, Finland
to Italy). Under eastern Europe’s continental climates, however, the results were
mixed (Fig 2, rows 11-17), and a safe strategy would be to use slightly less pro-
ductive provenances with reasonable climate matches (provenances that are both
above average in Fig 2a and toward the right in Fig 2b).
Given adequate model performance at least for western Europe, model projec-
tions for observed and projected climate change may provide guidance for Doug-
las-fir plantation forestry (Fig 3). Both recent climate change trends and projec-
tions for the 2020s suggest that European foresters should switch to provenances
from more southern or drier origins in North America.
0.0001 0.001 0.1 1Random forest class probability
TurkeyRomaniaBalkans
Coastal BalkansCentral Europe
PolandEastern Germany
ItalySpain
France & BelgiumSouthern Germany
Central GermanyNorth Coast
Southern UKScotlandNorwayFinland
TurkeyRomaniaBalkans
Coastal BalkansCentral Europe
PolandEastern Germany
ItalySpain
France & BelgiumSouthern Germany
Central GermanyNorth Coast
Southern UKScotlandNorwayFinland 4
14814259101332272854
848358120017718891217258276911571031
0.460.520.430.310.270.170.350.300.200.330.480.500.370.680.320.640.60
Nsites Nprov SE
0.471.160.410.76-0.740.420.801.230.530.780.86-1.67-0.740.04-1.43-1.951.46
1st
-1.150.760.630.441.561.180.72-0.270.681.260.380.760.790.911.160.780.45
2nd
0.670.340.540.91-0.840.751.120.95-0.26-0.34-0.851.460.40-0.12-0.710.43-0.78
3rd
−2 0 1 2−1Standard deviation from mean height
Observed
Predicted
BC CoastWA CoastOR CoastCA LowElevationWA Dry CoastOR Dry CoastWA Coast CascadesOR Coast CascadesCA High ElevationInterior CascadesInterior NorthInteriorInterior South
Provenances
Fig 1. Map of Europe with numbered planting sites coloured by region, with cli-mate diagrams displaying average monthly temperature (°C) and average
Fig 2.The upper dot plot (a) displays the observed perfor-mance of North American populations in European re-gions. Performance is reported in units of standard deviation from the site mean. Statistics on the right indicate the number of planting the number of provenances and the aver-age standard error for dot plot entries in each row. The lower dot plot (b) displays the climate match (better match on right) of the North American populations in the European regions. The columns on the right indicate the productivity gain or loss if the first, second, or third model recommendation would be planted based on provenance trial performance.
A2 2080
A2 2050A2 2020
1995-2009Observed
1961-1990Observed
ProvenancesBC CoastWA CoastOR CoastCA Low ElevationWA Dry CoastOR Dry Coast
WA Coast CascadesOR Coast CascadesCA High ElevationInterior CascadesInterior NorthInteriorInterior South
ProvenancesBC CoastWA CoastOR CoastCA Low ElevationWA Dry CoastOR Dry Coast
WA Coast CascadesOR Coast CascadesCA High ElevationInterior CascadesInterior NorthInteriorInterior South
Fig 3. Predictions of climatically best matching North American Douglas-fir populations as projected using a biocli-matic envelope model for past climate (1961-1990), a recent 15-year climate average (1995-2009) and the 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080's under an A2 scenario.
ObjectiveHere, we test if models developed to guide assisted migra-
tion of Douglas-fir in North America under climate change
can accurately predict the success of provenance transfers
to Europe. We then use a validated model to guide seed
transfer under climate change in Europe.
