GSD – Assimilation and Modeling Branch
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Transcript of GSD – Assimilation and Modeling Branch
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GSD – Assimilation and Modeling Branch
35th Conference on Radar Meteorology30 September 2011
Analysis of forecast improvement from radar-data assimilation
within RUC, Rapid Refresh and HRRR models
Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander, Ming Hu, Patrick Hofmann,
Eric James, Haidao Lin, Tanya Smirnova, David Dowell,
Stan Benjamin, John Brown
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Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models
13km Rapid Refresh
(mesoscale)
13km RUC (mesoscale)
3km HRRR (storm-scale)
RUC – current oper Model, new 18h fcst every hour
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RR, new 15-h fcst every hour
Rapid Refresh (RR) replaces RUC at NCEP in 2011 WRF, GSI with RUC features
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NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB ModelsModel Domain Grid
PointsGrid
SpacingVertical Levels
Vertical Coordinate
Height Lowest Level
Pressure Top
RUC CONUS 451 x 337 13 km 50 Sigma/ Isentropic 5 m ~50 mb
RR North America 758 x 567 13 km 50 Sigma 8 m 10 mb
HRRR CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 Sigma 8 m 85 mb
Model Run at: Time-Step Forecast Length Initialized Boundary
ConditionsRun Time
# of CPUs
RUCNCEPoper
18 s 18 hrs Hourly (cycled) NAM ~25 min 32
RR GSD, EMC 60 s 18 hrs Hourly (cycled) GFS ~25 min 160
HRRR GSD 15-20s 15 hrs Hourly (no-cycle)
RUC(RR --Apr 11) ~50 min ~1000
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Models at NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB
Model Assimilation DFI Microphysics Radiation Convection PBL LSM
RUC RUC-3DVAR Yes w/radar Thompson RRTM/Dudhia G3 MYJ RUC
RR GSI Yes w/radar Thompson RRTM/Goddard G3 MYJ RUC
HRRR None:RUC / RR I.C. No Thompson RRTM/Goddard None MYJ RUC
RR physics behavior similar to RUC – good for aviation, convective environment , surface and
sensible weatherNCEP upgrade from RUC to RR will provides moreadvanced model and analysis components
- WRF-ARW: advanced numerics, non-hydrostatic- GSI: advanced satellite DA, 4DVAR/EnKF development- Both community-based, ongoing code contributions
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• “Radar-DFI” assimilation procedure in NCEP RUC since Nov. 2008 improved fcsts precip systems
• Radar-DFI in GSD RR since 2008, RR to replaceRUC at NCEP late 2011
• Hourly CONUS HRRR nest in RUC since 2008 HRRR benefitted from RUC radar-DFI
• HRRR switched to run as nest within RR (with RR radar-DFI) in April 2011.
• HRRR run in real-time to support CoSPA, SPC, NWS regions, renewable energy
Quantify radar DFI impact on RUC, RRand HRRR nests for summer-time convection
Establish baseline for more sophisticated radar assimilation efforts
Background / Goals
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Rawinsonde (balloons)Wind Profilers (405 MHz, 915 MHz)
RASS virtual temperaturesVAD winds (WSR-88D radars)
Aircraft (ACARS, TAMDAR) Surface (METAR , Buoy,
Mesonet )Precipitable water (GPS, GOES,
SSM/I)GOES cloud-drift winds
GOES cloud-top pressure/tempRadar reflectivity, lightning
Ship reports/dropsondesSatellite radiances (RR)
Rapid Refresh Hourly Cycle / Observations
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
11 12 13Time (UTC)
AnalysisFields
3DVAR
Obs
3DVAR
Obs
Back-groundFields
Hourly updating using all available observations
Data types used
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Spring 2011 Hourly HRRR Initialization from RR
HourlyRR
LateralBoundaryConditions
Interp to 3 km grid
HourlyHRRR
15-h fcst
Initial Condition
Fields
11 z 12 z 13 z
Time (UTC)
AnalysisFields
3DVAR
Obs
3DVAR
Obs
Back-groundFields
18-h fcst 18-h fcst
1-hr
fcst
DDFI DDFI
1-hr
fcst
18-h fcst
1-hr
fcst
Interp to 3 km grid
15-h fcst
Use 1-h old LBC
to reducelatency
Use most recent IC (post-DFI)
to get latest radar info
Reduced Latency:
~2h for 2011
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Digital Filter-based reflectivity assimilationinitializes ongoing precipitation regions
Radar reflectivity assimilation
Forward integration,full physics with radar-based latent heating
-20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min
RUC / RR HRRR model forecast
Backwards integration, no physics
Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation
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Digital Filter-based reflectivity assimilationinitializes ongoing precipitation regions
Radar reflectivity assimilation
Forward integration,full physics with radar-based latent heating
-20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min
RUC / RR HRRR model forecast
Backwards integration, no physics
Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation
+ RUC/RR Convection suppression
No precipitation hydrometeor specification*
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psfct
Diabatic Digital Filter InitializationReduce noise in RUC and Rapid Refresh
No
ise
pa
ram
ete
r
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Rapid Refresh (GSI + ARW) reflectivity assimilation example
Low-levelConvergence
Upper-levelDivergence
K=4 U-comp. diff (radar - norad)
K=17 U-comp. diff
(radar - norad)
NSSL radar reflectivity
(dBZ)
14z 22 Oct 2008Z = 3 km
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• No cycling on the 3-km HRRR grid, must “spin-up storms within each run followed by accelerated storm evolution
“match” with real-world evolution depends on stage of actual storm evolution
• How effective is cycled “radar-DFI” procedure applied on mesoscale grid?-- for mesoscale “parent” grid?-- for storm-scale “child” grid?
• How does parameterized convection on parent grid impact evolution of storm-scale model?
• Similarities / difference RUC-HRRR vs. RR-HRRR?
Issues / Questions
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• To what degree is storm evolution controlled by mesoscale vs. storm-scale forcing?
Highly variable based on regime, but mesoscale forcing is very significant
-- We don’t accurately observe or predict mesoscale
mesoscale forcing == high predictability
-- Strong mesoscale forcing does imply reduced impact from radar data assimilation, unlessassimilated radar data improves mesoscale fields
(cold pools, low-level wind fields, etc.)
Issues / Questions
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RRAug 2011
RUCRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIME
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RRAug 2011
RUCRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIME
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RR -- HRRRAug 2011
RUC -- HRRRRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIMEEvery 2 hoursEvery 1 hour
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RR -- HRRRAug 2011
RUC -- HRRRRR
RUC NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIMEEvery 2 hoursEvery 1 hour
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RR -- HRRRAug 2011
RUC -- HRRRRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIMEEvery 2 hoursEvery 1 hour
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RR -- HRRRAug 2011
RUC -- HRRRRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIMEEvery 2 hoursEvery 1 hour
00z 13 Aug
02z 12 Aug
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RR -- HRRRAug 2011
RUC -- HRRRRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIMEEvery 2 hoursEvery 1 hour
00z 13 Aug
02z 12 Aug
22z 13 Aug
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RR -- HRRRAug 2011
RUC -- HRRRRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIMEEvery 2 hoursEvery 1 hour
00z 13 Aug
02z 12 Aug
22z 13 Aug
14z 14 Aug
00z 15 Aug
RETROSPECTIVE
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R/T-Retro Experiment Weather
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
RR -- HRRRAug 2011
RUC -- HRRRRR -- HRRR
RUC -- HRRR NO radarassimilation
YES radarassimilation
REAL-TIMEEvery 2 hoursEvery 1 hour
00z 13 Aug
02z 12 Aug
22z 13 Aug
14z 14 Aug
00z 15 Aug
04z 19 Aug
RETROSPECTIVE
20z 19 Aug
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80-km
valid (GMT)valid (EDT)
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p
“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR
verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010
40-km
20-km
25 dBZ6-h fcst
3-km
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80-km
valid (GMT)valid (EDT)
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p
“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR
verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010
ConvectiveInitiation
period
40-km
20-km
25 dBZ6-h fcst
3-km
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80-km
valid (GMT)valid (EDT)
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p
“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR
verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010
ConvectiveInitiation
period
40-km
20-km
25 dBZ6-h fcst
3-km
ConvectiveDecayperiod
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80-km
valid (GMT)valid (EDT)
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p
“neighborhood” verification of 6-hforecasts from 3-km HRRR
verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010
ConvectiveInitiation
period
40-km
20-km
25 dBZ6-h fcst
3-km
ConvectiveDecayperiod
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R/T-Retro Experiment Configuration
Mostly compare RUC-HRRR vs. RR-HRRR (w/ and w/o radar)
Also compare RUC and RR (w/ and w/o radar assimilation)
Reflectivity and precipitation verification (also upper-air, surface)
RUC RR
NO radar assim
YES radar assim
also RUC RR HRRR HRRR
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R/T-Retro Experiment Configuration
Mostly compare RUC-HRRR vs. RR-HRRR (w/ and w/o radar)
Also compare RUC and RR (w/ and w/o radar assimilation)
Reflectivity and precipitation verification (also upper-air, surface)
RUC RR
NO radar assim
YES radar assim
also RUC RR HRRR HRRR
Initial Hydrometeor specification:RUC – No precipitation hydrometeor specification0-h RUC-HRRR reflectivity from 1-h RUC explicit hydrometeorsRR – Specify snow hydrometeors only0-h RR-HRRR reflectivity from 1-h RR explicit HMs + radar snow
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13-km Eastern USMatched comparison
2 X 12 hr fcstvs. CPC 24-h analysis
11 – 21 Aug. 2011All init times
Rapid Refreshvs. RUC
PrecipitationVerification
RUC radar
| | | | | | | 0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 in.
CSI(x 100)
RUC no radar
RR radar
RR no radar
| | | | | | | 0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 in.
bias(x 100)
100(1.0)RUC
radarRUC
no radar
RR radarRR
no radarRadar assim
improves precip CSIs scores,
but also increases bias
Threshold
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| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h
25 dBZ 13-kmEastern USMatched Comparison12,13,14,19 Aug. 2011All init times
“parent” vs. “child”ReflectivityVerification
| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h
CSI(x 100)
RR-HRRR radar
RR-HRRR no radar
3-km fcsts improve upon parent 13-km
forecasts radar assim
adds skill at both 13-km and 3-km
RR radar RR
no radar
Forecast Lead Time
RUC-HRRR radar
RUC-HRRR no radar
RUC radar RUC
no radar
CSI(x 100)
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RUC-HRRRvs. RR-HRRR ReflectivityVerification
RUC-HRRR radar
CSI(x 100)
RUC-HRRR no radar
RR-HRRR radar
RR-HRRR no radar
bias(x 100)
100(1.0)
Radar assim improves precip CSIs scores,
but also increases bias
| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h
Forecast Lead Time
| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h
Eastern US, 25 dBZ 13-km CSI3-km biasMatched Comparison12,13,14,19 Aug. 2011All init times
RUC-HRRR radar
RUC-HRRR no radar
RR-HRRR radar
RR-HRRR no radar
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| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h
RUC-HRRR radar
RUC-HRRR no radar
RR-HRRR radar
RR-HRRR no radar
| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h Forecast Lead TimeForecast Lead Time
| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h
| | | | | | | 0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h
18z inits 00z inits
06z inits 12z inits
CSI for different Initialization times
00z 06z 06z 12z
12z 18z 18z 00z
18z
06z
00z
12z
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RRHRRR
RADAR
NSSL mosaic
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
01z 13 Aug 201100z
init
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RRHRRR
RADAR
NSSL mosaic
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
01z 13 Aug 201100z
init0h 2h 4h 6h 8h
CSI scores
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01z 13 Aug 2011
RRHRRR
RADAR
NSSL mosaic
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
00z + 1 hr fcsts
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00z 13 Aug 2011
NSSL mosaic
RUCHRRR
RADAR
00z initialization
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00z 13 Aug 2011
NSSL mosaic
RUCHRRR
RADAR
00z initialization
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
no radar
RRHRRR
RADAR
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00z 13 Aug 2011
NSSL mosaic
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
no radar
RRHRRR
RADAR
00z initialization
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00z 13 Aug 2011
NSSL mosaic
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RRHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
RRHRRR
no radar
00z initialization
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01z 13 Aug 2011
RRHRRR
RADAR
NSSL mosaic
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
00z + 1 hr fcsts
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02z 13 Aug 2011
RRHRRR
RADAR
NSSL mosaic
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
00z + 2 hr fcsts
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04z 13 Aug 2011
RRHRRR
RADAR
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
00z + 4 hr fcsts
NSSL mosaic
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06z 13 Aug 2011
RRHRRR
RADAR
RRHRRR
no radar
RUCHRRR
RADAR
RUCHRRR
no radar
00z + 6 hr fcsts
NSSL mosaic
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• “Radar-DFI” in mesoscale model improves mesoscale model precipitation and nested storm- scale reflectivity forecasts
• Results very similar for RUC-HRRR, RR-HRRR
• Radar-DFI focuses mesocale convective areas, suggestion of indirect convective suppression
• Radar data impact quite case dependent,strong diurnal aspect with little retention across mid-day convective minimum
• RR-HRRR convects more easily than RUC-HRRR, HRRR has difficulty propagating leading convective lines for both RR and RUC fields, especially for strongly capped environments
• Limitations to non-cycled 3-km forecasts
Conclusions and future work