GS Asia Pacific+Weekly+Kickstart 100305
Transcript of GS Asia Pacific+Weekly+Kickstart 100305
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 4
Performance snapshot: regions, markets, FX and rates
Asia gained +3% led by India (+4%); Taiwan, Australia and Korea (+3%) followed; Asian FX appreciated against USD: KRW +1.7%, IDR +1.2%Price performance of MSCI market and regional indices
Global markets Asia performance chartPrice return (%) Total (%)
Indices 1-week Ytd Ytd US$ RSI
-2 -3 57
0 -5 60
-2 -2 55
-1 -1 59
0 5 470 1 60
Asian markets
Price return (%) Total (%) Currency 3M yield 10Y yield
Indices 1-week Ytd Ytd US$ RSI Current 1wk chg(%)
Current(%)
1wk chg(bp)
Current(%)
1wk chg(bp)
-1 0 63 45.69 0.9 4.2 5 7.9 4
-7 -7 45 31.92 0.5 0.5 0 1.5 1
-1 0 59 0.90 0.8 4.2 8 5.5 3
-4 -1 50 1140 1.7 2.2 -3 5.0 -10
-4 -5 51
1 3 56 3.36 1.2 2.4 6 4.2 -4
-1 -1 NA 7.76 0.0 0.1 0 2.7 -2
-1 2 65 32.63 1.3 1.4 0 3.9 4
-1 0 47 9235 1.2 7.0 -4 9.6 -25
-5 -4 48 1.40 0.4 0.4 -5 2.7 -1
-9 -- 46 6.83 0.0 1.9 0 3.4 -12
-3 -2 50 46.05 0.2 4.0 -5 8.1 0
1.81.9
3.0
3.1
3.3
4.2
0 1 2 3 4 5
USAJapan
AC World
APJ
Europe
EM
-2.2
-0.7
0.6
1.2
1.3
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.7
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Philippines
China domestic*
Singapore
Indonesia
Thailand
Hong Kong
Malaysia
China offshore
Korea
Australia
Taiwan
India
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
* China domestic performance is based on CSI 300 index. China offshore performance is based on MSCI China index. Note: Currency convention for global markets: AC World USD, USA USD, Japan JPY, MXAPJ
USD, EM USD, Europe EUR; for Asian markets: all local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, CSI, FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 5
Performance snapshot: Sectors and styles
Materials (+5%) and tech (+4%) led the markets1-week and ytd performance (USD) of MXAPJ sectors
Indian sectors were the top performers; China telcos underperformedTop/bottom 5 performing country sectors (index cap > US$2 bn)
Price return (%)
Indices 1-week Ytd
-2
-5
2
0
-2-3
3
0
-4
-2-1.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.6
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Telecoms
Energy
Utilities
Health care
Financials
Cons disc
Cons stap
Industrials
Info tech
Materials
Top 5 performing GICS country sectors
Country Sector 1-wk perf. Ytd perf.
India Materials 7.0% 1.4%
India Industrials 5.5% -0.6%
India Cons. stap. 5.2% -1.6%
India Cons. disc. 4.7% 2.4%
India Utilities 4.4% -7.2%
Bottom 5 performing GICS country sectors
Country Sector 1-wk perf. Ytd perf.
China Telcos. -3.2% 0.3%
Australia Telcos. -2.0% -15.2%
Korea Telcos. -1.4% 3.1%
Singapore Financials -0.6% -8.2%
Korea Cons. disc. 0.0% -7.4%
Relative performance of MXAPJ cyclicals vs. defensives Relative performance of MXAPJ large caps vs. mid caps
(Dec-07 = 100)
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
D
ec-07
Feb-08
A
pr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
O
ct-08
D
ec-08
Feb-09
A
pr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
O
ct-09
D
ec-09
Feb-10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
MXAPJ cyclicals vs. defensives MXAPJ index (right) (Dec-07 = 100)
95
100
105
110
115
120
D
ec-07
Feb-08
A
pr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
O
ct-08
D
ec-08
Feb-09
A
pr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
O
ct-09
D
ec-09
Feb-10
25
40
55
70
85
100
MXAPJ Large vs. mid MXAPJ index (right)
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 6
Earnings revisions
Earnings upward revisions have been steadyForward EPS level of MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) index
2010E growth of Asia is at 26%, still led by Taiwan and Korea2010E consensus earnings growth estimates (local currency), ranked
MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) index EPS level
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
2009E EPS 2010E EPS (%)
38
23 23
18 17 1616 16 14
12
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Taiwan
Korea
China
India
Malaysia
HongKong
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Indonesia
Australia
MXAPJ
80
Australia and Singapore were revised up; others have less EPS changesCombined ranking by 10E earnings revisions and momentum, past week Materials and financials were upgraded, healthcare was revised downCombined ranking by 10E earnings revisions and momentum, past week
-1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5%
Malaysia
India
Thailand
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Korea
Taiwan
APxJ
Philippines
Singapore
Australia
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
12M EPS revisions (Bottom) 2010E EPS momentum
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
Health care
Energy
Telecom
Utilities
Industrials
Cons Discretionary
IT
Cons staples
Financials
Materials
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
12M EPS revisions (Bottom) 2010E EPS momentum
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 7
Regional valuations
MSCI market and sector index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median and bottom-up Goldman Sachs Research estimates)
Consensus estimates GS bottom-up est.
Bloomberg P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROAE (%) EPS growth (%)
ticker 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2011E
MSCI markets (local currency)
Australia MXAU 14.7 12.4 12.1 18.8 2.0 4.1 13.9 12.1 18.8
China MXCN 13.5 11.4 23.4 18.9 2.1 2.7 16.5 31.3 19.5
Hong Kong MXHK 15.6 14.3 17.0 9.1 1.4 3.3 9.1 13.3 15.2
India MXIN 17.9 14.7 22.9 21.3 2.8 1.1 16.4 21.5 21.2
Indonesia MXID 13.3 11.1 14.3 19.5 3.2 3.1 25.6 16.7 19.6Japan MXJP 19.1 14.6 173.6 31.1 1.1 1.9 6.2 168.8 30.5
Korea MXKR 9.5 8.6 38.4 10.5 1.3 1.6 14.8 36.5 10.6
Malaysia MXMY 15.2 13.4 18.0 13.2 1.9 3.1 13.2 16.8 14.7
Philippines MXPH 13.9 12.5 16.3 11.6 2.2 3.4 16.1 12.9 11.4
Singapore Free SIMSCI 14.2 12.8 15.8 10.4 1.7 3.4 11.9 11.5 14.7
Taiwan MXTW 14.4 12.0 79.8 17.5 1.8 3.8 12.8 80.3 16.2
Thailand MXTH 11.2 9.6 15.7 16.6 1.6 3.8 15.5 17.1 25.1
AC Asia Pacific ex Japan MXAPJ 13.6 11.8 26.2 15.4 1.8 3.0 14.0 26.9 16.2
AC Asia ex Japan MXASJ 13.2 11.5 31.1 14.5 1.8 2.6 14.0 32.0 15.7
USA MXUS 14.2 11.9 26.5 19.7 2.0 2.0 14.5
Europe (USD) MSDUE15 12.2 10.2 25.2 19.6 1.5 3.8 12.8
EAFE (USD) MXEA 13.6 11.3 37.4 20.9 1.5 3.4 10.9
AC World (USD) MXWD 13.8 11.5 32.1 20.0 1.7 2.7 12.4
MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan GICS sectors (local currency)
Energy MXAPJEN 13.4 11.3 16.0 18.9 1.9 2.7 14.9 21.9 21.1
Materials MXAPJMT 13.7 11.2 30.0 22.3 2.2 2.2 16.7 29.0 21.7
Industrials MXAPJIN 15.2 12.9 45.2 17.6 1.6 2.3 10.9 52.4 19.8
Consumer discretionary MXAPJCD 12.6 11.2 14.9 12.7 1.9 2.4 15.6 12.5 10.2
Consumer staples MXAPJCS 16.8 14.9 9.7 13.0 2.5 3.1 15.2 10.5 14.1
Health care MXAPJHC 19.4 16.8 16.8 15.6 3.7 2.0 19.9 19.4 17.7
Financials MXAPJFN 13.4 11.6 18.5 15.5 1.6 3.8 12.3 19.0 17.7
Information technology MXAPJIT 12.9 11.3 82.5 12.1 2.1 2.3 17.7 82.0 10.3
Telecommunication services MXAPJTC 11.8 11.0 3.8 6.5 1.9 4.9 16.5 2.7 5.8
Utilities MXAPJUT 15.6 13.9 21.4 12.0 1.5 3.1 9.8 18.9 15.9
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 8
Local index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median and bottom-up Goldman Sachs Research estimates)
Consensus estimates GS bottom-up est.
Bloomberg Index P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROAE (%) EPS growth (%)
Market ticker close 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2011E
Local market indexes (local currency)
Asia* SPA50 2,893 11.9 10.5 35.0 13.4 1.7 3.1 15.0 35.5 15.5
MXAPEXA 736 12.1 10.6 33.9 14.2 1.8 3.1 15.8 37.5 16.1
Australia AS51 4,767 14.7 12.4 12.9 18.9 1.9 4.2 13.3 12.9 18.9
Hong Kong/ HSI 20,788 13.4 11.4 20.4 18.0 1.7 3.4 13.5 26.9 22.7
China HSCEI 11,927 12.0 10.0 26.4 20.0 2.0 3.3 17.3 36.3 22.7
HSCCI 4,031 13.1 11.7 13.2 12.4 1.9 2.9 15.2 21.1 11.8
XIN0I 17,896 12.7 10.7 22.4 18.9 1.9 3.0 15.9 31.8 20.8
SHSZ300 3,260 18.1 14.6 31.1 21.3 2.7 1.5 16.6 36.6 21.7
XIN9I 10,660 16.0 13.4 26.9 19.6 2.6 1.7 17.2 33.6 21.1
India NIFTY 5,095 17.3 14.4 19.5 20.6 2.7 1.2 16.1 19.2 21.9
SENSEX 17,021 17.4 14.5 18.7 19.8 2.7 1.2 16.9 19.1 19.8
Indonesia JCI 2,576 13.4 11.3 20.9 20.9 2.7 2.8 21.7 22.6 21.1
LQ45 502 13.2 11.4 18.6 19.4 2.8 2.9 22.8 20.4 19.6
Japan NKY 10,369 21.0 16.1 162.6 30.7 1.3 1.6 6.4 163.3 30.6
TPX 911 19.2 14.6 194.2 31.5 1.1 1.9 5.9 189.2 31.2
Korea KOSPI2 214 9.8 8.8 43.7 11.2 1.3 1.6 14.1 43.6 11.4KOSPI 1,635 9.8 8.7 46.6 12.8 1.3 1.7 13.5 48.6 12.2
KOSDAQ 511 10.9 8.3 61.8 31.2 1.7 0.8 17.2 59.9 31.3
Philippines PCOMP 3,034 12.9 11.5 14.6 11.5 1.9 3.4 15.2 11.0 11.3
Singapore FSSTI 2,785 14.2 12.9 15.0 9.7 1.6 3.2 11.3 5.8 13.2
Taiwan TWSE 7,666 14.5 12.2 74.5 18.0 1.8 3.7 12.7 74.0 17.2
Thailand SET50 510 11.0 9.4 11.0 16.3 1.6 4.1 14.8 13.1 26.4
SET 725 10.9 9.4 12.2 15.9 1.5 4.3 14.4 14.0 24.7
Note: *SPA50 and MXAPEXA indices are quoted in USD. All others are quoted in local currency.Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 10
Valuations in context
China and Korea are trading below both 5-year average P/E...12M forward P/E relative to 5-year range
... and also P/B12M trailing P/B relative to 5-year range
12M forward P/E (X)
14.813.5 13.5
12.7
10.79.5
13.213.013.8
15.716.9
14.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
India
HongKong
Malaysia
Australia
Singapore
Philippines
Taiwan
China
Indonesia
Thailand
Korea
MXAPJ
+/- 1 Stdev.
One Week Ago
Current
High/low 12M trailing P/B (X)
3.8
3.2
2.5 2.52.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8
1.5 1.4
2.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Indonesia
India
Philippines
China
Malaysia
Australia
Taiwan
Thailand
Singapore
HongKong
Korea
MXAPJ
+/- 1 Stdev.
One Week Ago
Current
High/low
Asia is trading at 13.2X P/E and 2.0X P/B
12M forward P/E and trailing P/B series of MXAPJ index
Relative P/E of MXAPJ vs. SPX and DJ Stoxx 600
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec-05
Mar-06
Ju
n-06
Se
p-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Ju
n-07
Se
p-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Ju
n-08
Se
p-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Ju
n-09
Se
p-09
Dec-09
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MXAPJ P/E MXAPJ P/B (right)
(X) (X) Relative Forward P/E (X)
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Dec-00
Ju
n-01
Dec-01
Ju
n-02
Dec-02
Ju
n-03
Dec-03
Ju
n-04
Dec-04
Ju
n-05
Dec-05
Ju
n-06
Dec-06
Ju
n-07
Dec-07
Ju
n-08
Dec-08
Ju
n-09
Dec-09
vs. DJ Stoxx 600 vs. SPX
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 11
Fund flows and liquidity
US$1.3 bn inflow during the week, mainly from India US$0.6 bnCumulative net foreign inflow since 2009
Turnover velocity back at 100% levelsAnnualized turnover velocity (turnover / market cap) in Asia ex Japan
US$ bn
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
March low tonow: US$66 bn
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
Turnover velocity (5D moving average)
Cash turnover increased across the region except in AU, KR and JPCash turnover on Asian exchanges
Futures turnover dropped, rose slightly in AustraliaFutures turnover on Asian exchanges
(US$ mn)
8,247
4,982 4,436 4,3323,460
2,398
29,031
12,768
27,856
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
APJexChina
China
Japan
HongKong
Australia
Korea
India
Taiwan
ASEAN
260D avg value traded (US$ mn) Last week 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)
Current 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)
(US$ mn)
7,171
3,557
366 131 120
12,347
17,995
3,159
29,222
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Korea
Japan
HongKong
Taiwan
India
Australia
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
260D avg value traded (US$ mn) Last week 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)
Current 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)
Source: AMG, Bloomberg, Reuters, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 12
Risks, credit, and volatility
Risk appetite picked up from last weekGoldman Sachs Asia Pacific ex-Japan Equity Risk Barometer (GS-ERB)
Equities vs. credit performance
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
APxJ ERB MXAPJ
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan iTraxx Asia ex Japan (right, inverted)
Index level Index level
Realised volatility has reduced slightly during last week
HSI, KOSPI 200 and Nikkei realized volatility
Put costs dropped across the region
Cost of 3-month 90% puts
1M realized volatility (vol pts)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
HSI KS200 N225
Cost of 3-mo 90% puts (mid-market)
2.4 2.31.8 1.8
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
HSCEI
SPA50
EuroStoxx50
HSI
Nikkei225
TWSE
TOPIX
MSCIWorld
MSCISing
SPX
FTSE-100
KOSPI200
ASX200
1y median
Source: Bloomberg, local stock exchanges, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 13
Economics: Growth, commodities
Goldman Sachs Asian market GDP growth forecasts Commodities were up in general but coal -4%; BDIY rallied 14%
Real GDP growth
forecast (%)2009 2010 2011 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3
Greater China & North Asia
China 8.7 11.4 10.0 10.7 11.9 11.5 11.5
Hong Kong -2.7 5.8 5.3 1.9 8.0 5.3 5.0
Taiwan -1.9 5.5 4.8 9.2 10.3 4.4 3.8
Korea 0.2 4.8 4.6 6.0 7.6 5.6 3.3
India & ASEAN markets
India 6.6 8.2 8.7 6.5 8.3 8.4 8.0
Singapore -2.0 6.2 5.2 4.0 8.1 6.1 4.5
Indonesia 4.5 5.8 6.0 5.4 6.0 6.0 5.7
Malaysia -1.7 5.0 5.2 4.5 7.3 5.0 4.0
Philippines 0.9 4.2 5.0 1.8 3.3 4.6 4.3Thailand -2.3 4.2 4.5 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.7
Asia ex Japan 5.9 9.1 8.5 8.4 9.9 9.2 8.8
Japan -5.0 1.9 1.6 -0.4 2.6 1.6 2.0Euroland -4.0 1.2 1.9 -2.1 0.8 1.3 1.2US -2.4 2.6 2.4 0.1 2.4 3.1 2.9
Current Price performance
Commodity Bloomberg Currency Unit level 1-week ytdS&P GSCI
Spot SPGSCI USD - 520 0% -1%
Agriculture SPGCAL USD - 274 -2% -5%
Energy SPGSEN USD - 265 1% 0%
Metal SPGSIN USD - 392 3% 0%
Precious metal SPGSPM USD - 1515 2% 3%
Commodity spot (* nearby futures)
Baltic Dry BDIY USD - 3121 14% 4%
DRAM DRAMDXI - - 4050 0% 3%
Gold GOLDS USD per oz. 1135 2% 3%WTI * CL1 USD per barrel 81 1% 2%
Coal * QZ1 USD per ton 52 -4% 6%
Steel (rebar)* RBT1 CNY per ton 3861 -1% 17%
Aluminum * LA1 USD per ton 2191 4% -1%
Copper * LP1 USD per ton 7372 3% 0%
Palm oil * KO1 MYR per ton 2675 3% 4%
China PMI Korea Exports
(% yoy)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
(% yoy)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Datastream, Haver, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart
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Stocks
Top- and bottom-10 ranked stocks last week by standardized priceperformance (52-wk std. dev.) (daily liq. > US$10mn, cap > US$3bn)
Top- and bottom-10 ranked stocks last week by earnings momentum (dailyliq. > US$10mn, cap > US$3bn)
1W perf Ytd
Bloomberg Stock name Market GS sector (%) (# S.D.) chg (%)
Top 10 performance
MAY MK Malayan Banking Malaysia Banks 6 5.4 62
6 HK Hongkong Electric Hong Kong Utilities 3 3.5 3
JSP IS Jindal Steel & Power India Steel 10 3.0 357
658 HK China High Speed Transmission EChina Offshore Industrials 12 2.8 79
2777 HK Guangzhou R&F Prop China Offshore Property 13 2.8 52
TPWR IS Tata Power India Utilities 10 2.6 78
TTMT IS Tata Motors India Industrials 12 2.4 400
ITC IS ITC (IN) India Staples 5 2.3 43
SIA SP Singapore Airlines Singapore Transportation 7 2.3 41
SESA IS Sesa GOA India Steel 12 2.2 421
1W perf Ytd
Bloomberg Stock name Market GS sector (%) (# S.D.) chg (%)
Bottom 10 performance
1186 HK China Railway Constr (H) China Offshore Industrials -8 -2.2 -18
11 HK Hang Seng Bank Hong Kong Banks -4 -2.0 8
UOB SP United Overseas Bank Singapore Banks -4 -1.9 38
941 HK China Mobile China Offshore Telecoms -5 -1.6 -6
036460 KP Korea Gas Korea Utilities -5 -1.6 -17
823 HK Link REIT Hong Kong Property -2 -0.7 50
SGX SP Singapore Exchange Singapore Non-bank financials -1 -0.7 50
097950 KP CJ CheilJedang Korea Staples -3 -0.7 14
ONGC IS Oil & Natural Gas India Oil and gas -2 -0.7 64
CPF TB Charoen Pokphand Foods Thailand Staples -3 -0.7 274
Ticker Stock name 1W chg Ticker Stock name 1W chg
Top 10 Bottom 10753 HK Air China (H) 15% TOL AU Toll -8%
MAP AU MAp Group 14% TCL AU Transurban Group -8%
1326 TT Formosa Chem & Fibre 14% SGM AU Sims -6%
ANZ AU Australia & New Zealand 8% BSL AU BlueScope Steel -6%
SMM SP SembCorp Marine 6% RBXY IS Ranbaxy Lab -6%
FMG AU Fortescue Metals 6% LLC AU Lend Lease -6%
AIO AU Asciano Group 5% QBE AU QBE Insurance -4%
144 HK China Merchants 5% 813 HK Shimao Prop -4%
RIO AU Rio Tinto 5% 2601 HK China Pacific Insurance (G -4%
086280 KP Glovis 5% SIME MK Sime Darby -3%
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.
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Key events
Economic data release
Country Data ConsensusExpected
release date
Taiwan Export Feb 32.9% 8-Mar
Taiwan Import Feb 39.1% 8-MarChina Export Feb 38.3% 10-Mar
China Import Feb 39.2% 10-MarPhilippines Central bank policy meeting 10-Mar
Japan Machinery orders Jan -0.7% 10-MarJapan Corporate goods price index Feb -1.5% 10-Mar
China CPI Feb 2.5% 11-Mar
China PPI Feb 5.1% 11-Mar
China Industrial production Feb 19.6% 11-Mar
China Retail sales Feb 18.1% 11-MarChina FAI Feb 27.0% 11-Mar
Korea Central bank policy meeting 11-MarMalaysia Industrial production Jan 12.2% 11-Mar
Thailand Central bank policy meeting 11-Mar
United States Trade balance Jan -$41.0Bn 11-MarJapan GDP annualized 4Q F 4.0% 11-Mar
United States Advance retail sales Feb -0.2% 12-Mar
Eurozone Industrial production Jan -1.6% 12-Mar
China M2 Feb 24.9% 10-15 Mar
Earnings data release
Bloomberg Proper name MarketExpected
report date000728 CS Guoyuan Sec China Domestic 8-Mar
151 HK Want Want China China Offshore 8-Mar8 HK PCCW Hong Kong 9-Mar
1212 HK Lifestyle Intl China Offshore 9-Mar
601107 CG Sichuan Expressway China Domestic 9-Mar
2038 HK Foxconn Intl China Offshore 9-Mar
66 HK MTR Hong Kong 9-Mar
257 HK China Everbright Intl China Offshore 10-Mar
14 HK Hysan Dev Hong Kong 10-Mar
000001 CS Shenzhen Dev Bank China Domestic 11-Mar
16 HK Sun Hung Kai Prop Hong Kong 11-Mar
601857 CG PetroChina China Domestic 11-Mar
410 HK Soho China China Offshore 12-Mar
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.
Report priced as of March 4, 2010. Index price return and valuation as of March 5, 2010 5 p.m. HKT.
M h 20 0 A i P ifi P f li S A i P ifi W kl Ki k
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Other disclosures
All MSCI data used in this report is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this
information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used
to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an as is basis, and the user of this
information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Neither MSCI, any of its affiliates nor any third party
involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect
to this information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and MSCI, its affiliates and any such third party hereby
expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with
respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third
party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive,
consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. MSCI and the MSCI
indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) were developed by and is
the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poors. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use byThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Research written by Donald Lu on companies listed in Taiwan is written by him in his capacity as consultant to Goldman Sachs
(Asia) L.L.C. Any other research is written in his capacity as employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited.
Special disclosure
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or one of its affiliates is acting as financial advisor in connection with a proposed privatization
of Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited by way of a scheme of arrangement under Section 86 of the Companies
Law. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or one of its affiliates will receive a fee for this advisory role.
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