GROWTHPOINT RETAIL UPDATE · N1 City Mall (100%), Goodwood, Cape Town 1 741 63 397 Pepkor Holdings...
Transcript of GROWTHPOINT RETAIL UPDATE · N1 City Mall (100%), Goodwood, Cape Town 1 741 63 397 Pepkor Holdings...
Retail update November 2019
GROWTHPOINT RETAIL
UPDATEPresented by Neil Schloss
Head of Asset Management
Retail
28/29 November 2019
INDEX
1. RETAIL OVERVIEW AND THEMES/ TRENDS
2. GROWTHPOINT TRADING DENSITY GROWTH VS BENCHMARK
3. TRADING PERFORMANCE
4. RETAIL PORTOLIO KPI’S
5. ARREARS
6. OPERATING COSTS
7. IMPACT OF COMPETITION
8. PROJECTS / DEVELOPMENTS
9. DISPOSALS
10. EDCON EXPOSURE
RETAIL OVERVIEW
RETAIL OVERVIEW
GLA
No. Retail Properties
Vacancy
1,381,997m²
49
3.9%
Value R29.8bn
Top 10 Properties by Value Fair Value
Rm
GLA
m²
Top 10 Tenants by gross rental GLA
m²
Brooklyn Mall and Design Square (75%), Brooklyn, Pretoria 2 125 56 334 The Foschini Group Ltd 58 922
Festival Mall, Kempton Park, Johannesburg 1 754 82 754 Edcon Holdings Ltd 104 377
N1 City Mall (100%), Goodwood, Cape Town 1 741 63 397 Pepkor Holdings Ltd 72 001
Waterfall Mall, Rustenburg 1 628 49 883 Shoprite Holdings Ltd 135 297
Greenacres, Greenacres, Port Elizabeth 1 485 49 530 Pick n Pay Stores Ltd 112 897
Vaal Mall (66.6%), Vanderbijlpark, Johannesburg 1 386 44 029 Mr Price Group Ltd 56 647
Lakeside Mall, Benoni 1 346 65 355 Truworths International Ltd 32 070
La Lucia Mall, La Lucia, Durban 1 304 37 287 Woolworths Holdings Ltd 87 253
Kolonnade (50%), Montana Park, Pretoria 1 173 38 284 Massmart Holdings Ltd 65 715
The Constantia Village, Constantia, Cape Town 1 135 20 421 Clicks Group Ltd 27 344
Sub Total 15 077 507 274 Sub Total 752 523
Balance of the sector 14 768 874 723 Balance of the sector 576 242
Total for the sector 29 845 1 381 997 Total for the sector (excluding vacancies) 1 328 765
TOP 10 PROPERTIES TOP 10 TENANTS
8. Decision making slow
7. Runaway administrative costs
11. Sustainable initiatives
1. Weak Consumer
2. Low like for like
turnover growth
3. Historic lease
escalations outpacing
turnover growth
4. Aggressive lease/
renewal negotiations
5. Cost containment
• Reversions
• Downsizing
• Consolidation of stores
6. Op Costs growing
faster than rental income
9. Changing tenant mixes /alternative
uses
THEMES / TRENDS
10. Online
12. Technology
13. Exclusivities
GROWTHPOINT
TRADING DENSITY
GROWTH VS BENCHMARK
Bellows College
GROWTHPOINT TRADING DENSITY GROWTH VS BENCHMARK
1.9%
3.0%
3.3%
6.8%
0.6%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Growthpoint
Redefine
Liberty two°Degrees
Attacq
Hyprop June 2019
June 2019
May 2019
August 2019
September 2019
Trading
Performance
Bellows College
TRADING PERFORMANCE
12 MONTH ROLLING TRADING DENSITY BY CENTRE CLASSIFICATION – SEPTEMBER 2019
2,616
2,442 2,497
3,467
2,733
2,537
3,602
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Total Large Regional Small Regional Community
Growthpoint MSCI
Bellows College
TRADING PERFORMANCE
12 MONTH ROLLING TRADING DENSITY BY LSM – SEPTEMBER 2019
2,616
2,241
2,453
3,434
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Total Portfolio Lower Income Middle Income Upper Income
1.9%↑
2.1%↑
1.0%↑
1.9%↑
City Mall
Village Square
Festival Mall
Golden Acre
The Bridge
Fourways Crossing
Kolonnade
Vaal Mall
Woodmead
Key West
N1 City Mall
Northgate
Greenacres
Lakeside Mall
14th Avenue
Helderberg Hyper
Hillcrest Corner
Howard Centre
Bayside Mall
Paarl Mall
River Square
Waterfall Mall
Longbeach Mall
Alberton City
City View
East Rand Value
Constantia Village
Gardens Centre
Brooklyn Mall
La Lucia Mall
Walmer Park
Watercrest Mall
Bellows College
TRADING DENSITY GROWTH ROLLING 12 MONTHS TO SEPTEMBER 2019 –
LARGE REGIONAL
-0.1
-0.7
3.1
3.8
-2.4
3.2
0.7
1.4
-2.8
7.1
-1.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
BROOKLYN MALL FOURWAYSCROSSING
KOLONNADE VAAL MALL WOODMEAD FESTIVAL MALL KEY WEST N1 CITY MALL NORTHGATE GREENACRES LAKESIDE MALL
Perc
enta
ge %
Bellows College
TRADING DENSITY GROWTH ROLLING 12 MONTHS TO SEPTEMBER 2019 –
SMALL REGIONAL
2.6
0.6
4.0
-3.1
3.93.8
-0.9
-2.2
-0.7
2.0
-0.2
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
LA LUCIA MALL WALMER PARK WATERCRESTMALL
BAYSIDE MALL PAARL MALL RIVER SQUARE WATERFALL MALL LONGBEACH MALL ALBERTON CITY CITY VIEW GOLDEN ACRE
Perc
enta
ge %
Bellows College
TRADING DENSITY GROWTH ROLLING 12 MONTHS TO SEPTEMBER 2019 –
COMMUNITY CENTRES
2.9
1.2
0.0
5.5
3.1
2.5
-0.1
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
CONSTANTIA VILLAGE GARDENS CENTRE HILLCREST CORNER HOWARD CENTRE CITY MALL THE BRIDGE VILLAGE SQUARE
Perc
enta
ge %
Bellows College
RETAIL PORTFOLIO
KPI’S
RETAIL PORTFOLIO KPI REVIEW3.3
2.6
3.6
3.6
3.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
7.3
7
7.2
6
7.2
7.0
3
6.9
3
6. 7
6. 8
6. 9
7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
3.5
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.8
F Y15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
VACANCY
%
AVERAGE IN FORCE ESCALATION
%
WEIGHTED AVERAGE
LEASE PERIOD
Years
RETAIL PORTFOLIO KPI REVIEW87.0
89.3
80.9
81.8
82.7
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
7.7
3
7.3
6
7.2
7
7.0
9
6.5
4
F Y15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
RENEWAL SUCCESS RATE WEIGHTED AVERAGE RENEWAL GROWTH WEIGHTED AVERAGE FUTURE ESCALATIONS
ON RENEWAL% %
%
5.6
8
5.8
7
3.1
8
-3.1
2
-5.3
1
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
F Y 1 5 F Y 1 6 F Y 1 7 F Y 1 8 F Y 1 9
ARREARS
ARREARS
8.84% 8.98%
10.33% 10.20%
9.15%
10.91%
13.42%
15.72%
17.17%
6.90%
8.14%8.52%
9.06%
35,240 37,349
42,623 41,461
38,497
44,225
55,377
66,722
74,623
30,822
37,331
34,455
37,267
9,757 10,62611,987
10,440 10,4278,693 8,463 8,780 8,623 8,489
11,387 11,60010,043
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%Sep'1
8
Oct'18
Nov'1
8
Dec'1
8
Jan'1
9
Feb'1
9
Mar'19
Apr'19
May'1
9
Jun'1
9
Jul'1
9
Aug'1
9
Sept'19
Tota
l Arr
ears
and P
rovis
ion f
or
Arr
ears
(R'0
00)
Arr
ears
as
% o
f Tota
l Collecta
ble
s
Arrears as % of Total Collectables Total Arrears (R'000) Provision for Bad Debt (R'000)
Bellows College 20
OPERATING COSTS
Bellows College
TOTAL MUNICIPAL CHARGES CONTRIBUTED 62% OF TOTAL
OPERATING COSTS
Source: SAPOA, MSCI
Bellows College
MUNICIPAL CHARGES NOW A LARGER SLICE OF A LARGER PIE
Source: SAPOA, MSCI
Bellows College
RATES & TAXES THE FASTEST GROWING COST SINCE 2009
Source: SAPOA, MSCI
IMPACT OF
COMPETITION
IMPACT OF COMPETITION
1. Bayside Mall
▪ Competition – Table Bay Mall – Opened September 2017
▪ Full Competition in Primary Catchment Area
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Apr-
17
May-1
7
Jun-1
7
Jul-
17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-
17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
Jan-1
8
Feb-1
8
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
May-1
8
Jun-1
8
Jul-
18
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan-1
9
Feb-1
9
Mar-
19
Apr-
19
May-1
9
Jun-1
9
Jul-
19
Aug-1
9
Sep-1
9
Month-on-Month Trading Density Growth Month-on-Month Growth in Footcount
Opened Sep 2017
PROJECTS /
DEVELOPMENTS
PROJECTS / DEVELOPMENTS
Development/ Redevelopment Tenancy Estimated
Completion Date
Capex Approval
(Rmil)
CO
MPLETED
PAST
4 Y
EARS
Vaal Mall Extension 12/2016 294.00
Greenacres Extension 07/2017 290.00
Fourways Crossing Refurbishment and Extension 06/2017 57.50
Northgate (50%)
Downsizing of the 22 000m2 Pick n Pay
Hypermarket to accommodate a new flagship
Pick n Pay
10/2017 43.5
Kolonnade (50%)Development of outdoor piazza accommodating
casual dining12/2017 16.00
APPRO
VED
River Square Refurbishment and relocation of Tenants 12/2018 65.00
Festival Mall Refurbishment 04/2019 58.15
Lakeside Mall Refurbishment 04/2019 55.00
Walmer Park Redevelopment 06/2019 148.64
La Lucia Refurbishment 11/2019 65.5
Longbeach Mall Refurbishment 10/2019 34.00
Middestad Mall Redevelopment of upper level 03/2020 23.7
Lakeside Mall Cinema Redevelopment 06/2020 74.00
Waterfall Mall Dischem Development 04/2020 72.00
PLAN
NED
Paarl Mall Extension
Longbeach Mall Extension
DISPOSALS
DISPOSALS
DISPOSALS – PAST 4 YEARS
No BUILDING AREA DATE OF DISPOSAL GLA m²SELLING PRICE
Rm
1 Picbel Parkade KZN 02/03/2017 13,818 271.3
2 Vaal Mall – 11.19% Vanderbijl Park 11/04/2017 7,387 209.3
3 Grayston Shopping Centre Sandton, JHB 22/05/2017 4,346 138.0
4 OK Bazaars Empangeni Empangeni, KZN 18/07/2017 13,660 172.5
5 Jet Bloemfontein Bloemfontein 26/09/2017 5,516 38.3
6 Hatfield Plaza Hatfield, PTA 19/03/2018 19,332 285.3
7 Hatfield Mall Hatfield, PTA 19/03/2018 6,332 61.4
8 Campus Building Hatfield, PTA 19/03/2018 3,179 39.0
9 Standard Plaza Hatfield, PTA 19/03/2018 2,733 32.0
10 Norkem Mall Kempton Park, JHB 20/12/2018 9,591 109.5
11 Longbeach vacant land Noordhoek, WC 04/10/2018 8.5
12 Sunward Park Shopping Centre Boksburg, JHB 19/07/2019 15,015 147.0
13 Stanger KZN 08/10/2019 3,045 16.8
EDCON EXPOSURE
EDCON EXPOSURE – BY BRAND
BRAND
EXPOSURE AS AT
30 JUNE 2019
GLA (m²)
Accessorize 18
Active 1,511
Boardmans 1,266
CNA 7,759
Edgars 72,436
Jet 14,478
Jetmart 5,837
MAC 66
Red Square 645
River Island 361
104,377
30 June 2018 116,636
EDCON EXPOSURE – EDGARS BY SIZE
EDGARS EXPOSURE AS AT 30 JUNE 2019
GLA (m²) NUMBER OF STORES
< 3,000m² 14,212 8
3,000m² - 5,000m² 30,328 9
> 5,000m² 27,896 4
72,436 21
BY GLA NUMBER OF STORES
THANK YOU