Growth trend of poverty in bangladesh

CPD: Growth, Income Inequality and Poverty 1

Growth, Income Inequality and Poverty Trends in Bangladesh: Implications for Development Strategy1

Uttam Deb, Zobdul Hoque, Nafisa Khaled and Subir Kanti Bairagi2 I. INTRODUCTION Regional inequality is a growing concern in Bangladesh. Bangladesh during the pre-

independence period experienced serious regional inequality. Policy actions to address regional

inequality require information about the nature, extent and trends in regional inequality. An

attempt is made in this paper to analyze regional inequality in Bangladesh. Regional inequality

may be analyzed on issues related to growth, income inequality and poverty. Therefore, the

present study has analyzed regional inequalities for 64 districts of Bangladesh and focused on the

following issues:

(a) Analyze the nature, extent and trends in growth, poverty and income inequality in Bangladesh during 1995/96-2005/06;

(b) Document and examine relationship between economic growth, income inequality and

poverty in Bangladesh; (c) Provide some policy suggestions to foster growth, reduce income inequality and poverty in

Bangladesh. The paper is divided into five sections. Following introduction, Section II discusses growth

performance at the national and districts level and determinants of growth. Section III describes

trends in income distribution and income inequality in Bangladesh. It also focuses on the factors

responsible for variation in per capita income among districts and income inequality. Regional

level poverty situation (income and human poverty) is discussed in Section IV. Determinants of

poverty are also discussed here. Section V puts forward some issues for discussion.

1 Paper presented at the Dialogue on “Addressing Regional Inequalities: Policy Options and Strategies” held on 28 February 2008 at the CIRDAP Auditorium; organized by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). 2 Authors are respectively, Head, Research Division, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD); former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS); and Research Associates, CPD. Authors are grateful to Molla Mursaleen Shiraj for research assistance.


II. GROWTH PERFORMANCE: SECTORAL AND DISTRICT LEVEL II.1 Trends in GDP

Volume of GDP has increased from 17.585 billion in 1981/82 to 39.068 in 1995/96 and

increased further to 59.748 billion in 2005/06. On the other hand, between 1981/82 and 2005/06,

volume of agriculture GDP has increased from 5.482 billion to 11.718 billion; industry GDP

increased from 3.707 billion to 16.674 and service GDP from 8.396 to 31.356 billion. In other

words, between 1981/82 and 2005/06, GDP increased by 2.4 times, agricultural GDP increased

by 1.1 times, industry GDP increased by 3.5 times and service GDP increased by 2.7 times.

During this period different sub-sectors of agriculture also registered high increased. Crop GDP

increased by 55%, livestock GDP increased by 2.7 times and fisheries GDP increased by about 6

times. During the last years (between 1995/96 and 2005/06), GDP increased by 53%, agriculture

GDP by 17%, industry GDP by 72% and service GDP by 62% while increase in crop sub-sector

was 17%, livestock (10%), fisheries (16%) and forestry (27%).

Table 1: Trends in GDP at Current Price (Million US$) in Bangladesh, by sector: 1981/82 to 2005/06 Sector 1981/82 1991/92 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change in

2005/06, compared to

1981/82

% change in 2005/06,

compared to 1995/96

Agriculture 5,482 8,896 10,030 11,597 11,718 114 17 Crop 4439 5985 5,871 6,639 6,881 55 17 Livestock 394 1119 1,312 1,363 1,445 267 10 Fisheries 350 1155 2,093 2,717 2,434 595 16 Forestry 299 638 755 878 958 220 27 Industry 3,707 6,805 9,717 11,492 16,674 350 72 Service 8,396 14,574 19,321 22,358 31,356 273 62 Total GDP 17,585 30,275 39,068 45,396 59,748 240 53 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.

An analysis of trends in GDP by sectors at the district level was carried out. In 2005/06,

compared to 1995/96, the districts experienced five types of changes in their respective GDP,

agricultural GDP, industrial GDP, and service sector GDP. These are: (i) High Increase (More

than 50%), (ii) Medium Increase (20% to 50%), (iii) Low Increase (0%to 20%), (iv) Decrease

(<0%), and (v) High Decrease (<-20%). Different sub-sectors of agriculture (crop and

horticulture, livestock, fisheries, and forestry) also had these types of changes.


Trends and changes in total GDP: Trends and changes in total GDP at the district level are

reported in Table 2. In 2005/06, compared to 1995/96, high increase in GDP was observed in 33

districts (Kurigram, Magura, Nilphamari, Brahamanbaria, Sherpur, Noakhali, Rangpur,

Nawabganj, Jhenaidaha, Jessore, Tangail, Khagrachhari, Khulna, Jamalpur, Sunamganj,

Panchagarh, Dinajpur, Narsingdi, Natore, Sylhet, Bogra, Rajshahi, Satkhira, Bagerhat,

Chittagong, Narayanganj, Naogaon, Pabna, Gazipur, Dhaka, Joypurhat, Sirajganj, Kishoreganj),

medium increase in GDP was observed in 28 districts (Lakshmipur, Mymensingh, Thakurgaon,

Gopalganj, Narail, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Pirojpur, Chandpur, Chuadanga, Kushtia,

Madaripur, Maulvibazar, Rajbari, Jhalokati, Shariatpur, Comilla, Munshiganj, Faridpur,

Meherpur, Cox's Bazar, Manikganj, Gaibandha, Lalmonirhat, Feni, Barisal, Haiganj), two

districts (Bandarban, Netrakona) had low increase and one district (Rangamati) had high

decrease in GDP.

Trends and changes in agricultural GDP: Trends and changes in agricultural GDP at the

district level are reported in Table 3. In 2005/06, compared to 1995/96, high increase in

agricultural GDP was observed in two districts (Joypurhat, Kishoreganj), medium increase in

agricultural GDP was observed in 25 districts (Kurigram, Habiganj, Nilphamari, Jamalpur,

Magura, Jhenaidaha, Thakurgaon, Narayanganj, Natore, Khagrachhari, Brahamanbaria,

Nawabganj, Gazipur, Panchagarh, Rajshahi, Dhaka, Bogra, Dinajpur, Pabna, Sirajganj,

Sunamganj, Satkhira, Bagerhat, Naogaon, Khulna), low increase in 25 districts (Chandpur,

Faridpur, Madaripur, Pirojpur, Shariatpur, Jhalokati, Narail, Bhola, Barguna, Cox's Bazar,

Patuakhali, Sylhet, Gaibandha, Comilla, Manikganj, Narsingdi, Feni, Lalmonirhat, Rangpur,

Barisal, Chittagong, Tangail, Sherpur, Jessore, Noakhali). Agricultural GDP decreased in seven

districts (Lakshmipur, Munshiganj, Rajbari, Meherpur, Chuadanga, Gopalganj, Maulvibazar) and

five districts (Bandarban, Rangamati, Netrakona, Mymensingh, Kushtia) had high decrease in

agriculture GDP.

Trends and changes in industrial GDP: Trends and changes in industrial GDP at the district

level are reported in Table 4. In 2005/06, compared to 1995/96, high increase in industrial GDP

was observed in all districts except two districts (Comilla and Rangamati). Comilla district had

medium increase while Rangamati experienced high decrease in industrial GDP.


Trends and changes in service sector GDP: Trends and changes in service sector GDP at the

district level are reported in Table 5. In 2005/06, compared to 1995/96, high increase in service

sector GDP was observed in all districts except six districts (Thakurgaon, Rangamati,

Bandarban, Gopalganj, Lakshmipur, Netrakona) which had medium increase in service sector

GDP.

Trends and changes in GDP of the crop and horticulture sub-sector: Trends and changes in

GDP of the crop and horticulture sub-sector at the district level are reported in Table 6. In

2005/06, compared to 1995/96, High Increase in crop GDP was observed in four districts

(Khulna, Bagerhat, Satkhira, Kishoreganj), medium increase in crop GDP was observed in 22

districts (Lalmonirhat, Magura, Gaibandha, Khagrachhari, Jhenaidaha, Nilphamari, Jamalpur,

Sylhet, Sherpur, Thakurgaon, Habiganj, Dinajpur, Sunamganj, Panchagarh, Nawabganj, Natore,

Pabna, Sirajganj, Rajshahi, Bogra, Naogaon, Joypurhat), 14 districts (Manikganj, Patuakhali,

Madaripur, Barisal, Pirojpur, Feni, Bhola, Chandpur, Brahamanbaria, Comilla, Kurigram,

Tangail, Jessore, Rangpur) had low increase in crop GDP. Crop GDP decreased in 17 districts

(Narayanganj, Gazipur, Maulvibazar, Gopalganj, Rajbari, Narsingdi, Jhalokati, Shariatpur,

Lakshmipur, Barguna, Munshiganj, Cox's Bazar, Faridpur, Noakhali, Dhaka, Narail, Chittagong)

and seven districts (Rangamati, Bandarban, Kushtia, Netrakona, Meherpur, Chuadanga,

Mymensingh) registered high decrease in crop GDP.

Trends and changes in GDP of the livestock sub-sector: Trends and changes in GDP of the

livestock sub-sector at the district level are reported in Table 7. In 2005/06, compared to

1995/96, high increase in livestock GDP was observed in five districts (Rajshahi, Bhola,

Joypurhat, Gazipur, Dhaka), medium increase in livestock GDP was observed in 11 districts

(Nawabganj, Naogaon, Comilla, Jamalpur, Noakhali, Natore, Chittagong, Narsingdi, Chuadanga,

Khagrachhari, Meherpur) and 26 districts (Mymensingh, Tangail, Rajbari, Kurigram, Pabna,

Dinajpur, Kishoreganj, Bagerhat, Manikganj, Narayanganj, Bogra, Cox's Bazar, Sirajganj,

Rangamati, Barisal, Shariatpur, Kushtia, Patuakhali, Barguna, Jhenaidaha, Chandpur, Feni,

Pirojpur, Jhalokati, Lakshmipur, Khulna) had low increase in livestock GDP. Livestock GDP

decreased in 18 districts (Sylhet, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Netrakona, Panchagarh, Satkhira,


Brahamanbaria, Maulvibazar, Thakurgaon, Madaripur, Magura, Bandarban, Gaibandha, Narail,

Rangpur, Sherpur, Jessore, Gopalganj) and four districts (Faridpur, Sunamganj, Munshiganj,

Habiganj) had high decrease in GDP.

Trends and changes in GDP of the fisheries sub-sector: Trends and changes in GDP of the

fisheries sub-sector at the district level are reported in Table 8. In 2005/06, compared to 1995/96,

high increase in fisheries GDP was observed in 22 districts (Pabna, Sirajganj, Noakhali, Narail,

Dinajpur, Jhenaidaha, Naogaon, Kurigram, Tangail, Thakurgaon, Panchagarh, Magura,

Narsingdi, Gazipur, Joypurhat, Brahamanbaria, Sunamganj, Narayanganj, Manikganj,

Nilphamari, Chuadanga, Meherpur), medium increase in fisheries GDP was observed in 15

districts (Bagerhat, Habiganj, Barguna, Shariatpur, Maulvibazar, Khulna, Lalmonirhat, Feni,

Rangpur, Chittagong, Kushtia, Dhaka, Barisal, Jessore, Faridpur), 10 districts (Madaripur,

Natore, Rajshahi, Comilla, Bogra, Satkhira, Jhalokati, Cox's Bazar, Patuakhali, Nawabganj) had

low increase in fisheries GDP. Fisheries GDP decreased in 10 districts (Chandpur, Sylhet,

Sherpur, Rajbari, Rangamati, Munshiganj, Pirojpur, Gopalganj, Bhola, Jamalpur) and six

districts (Mymensingh, Lakshmipur, Netrakona, Bandarban, Kishoreganj, Gaibandha) had high

decrease in fisheries GDP.

Trends and changes in GDP of the forestry sub-sector: Trends and changes in GDP of the

forestry sub-sector at the district level are reported in Table 9. All of the 64 districts of

Bangladesh experienced medium increase in forestry GDP in 2005/06, compared to that of

1995/96.


Table 2: Trends in GDP at Current Market Price (in Million US$) in Bangladesh, by district:

1995/96 to 2005/06 Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06,

compared to

1995/96

Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change in

2005/06, compared

to 1995/96

Bagerhat 466 557 742 59.4 Madaripur 260 308 368 41.2 Bandarban 93 104 105 13.2 Magura 226 265 342 50.9 Barguna 263 304 366 38.9 Manikganj 342 401 503 47.0 Barisal 628 732 939 49.6 Maulvibazar 400 465 565 41.2 Bhola 477 552 665 39.4 Meherpur 163 192 236 44.5 Bogra 769 918 1223 59.1 Munshiganj 325 372 465 43.3 Brahamanbaria 674 750 1020 51.4 Mymensingh 1216 1406 1499 23.3 Chandpur 515 609 722 40.4 Naogaon 639 755 1025 60.5 Chittagong 3055 3543 4871 59.4 Narail 205 236 280 36.3 Chuadanga 268 314 377 40.7 Narayanganj 1097 1246 1751 59.6 Comilla 1144 1265 1635 42.9 Narsingdi 596 692 938 57.4 Cox's Bazar 564 660 820 45.3 Natore 448 527 708 58.0 Dhaka 5714 6742 9497 66.2 Nawabganj 315 373 484 53.8 Dinajpur 720 847 1129 56.8 Netrakona 538 615 629 16.9 Faridpur 415 484 598 44.2 Nilphamari 359 420 543 51.3 Feni 287 328 429 49.3 Noakhali 613 728 934 52.4 Gaibandha 490 572 726 48.3 Pabna 684 802 1100 60.7 Gazipur 1132 1309 1850 63.4 Panchagarh 202 239 315 56.1 Gopalganj 284 325 385 35.7 Patuakhali 462 524 642 39.0 Habiganj 484 540 724 49.8 Pirojpur 291 331 409 40.2 Jamalpur 509 603 792 55.4 Rajbari 232 274 328 41.5 Jessore 782 908 1206 54.2 Rajshahi 661 798 1052 59.1 Jhalokati 180 198 255 41.8 Rangamati 263 196 187 -28.9 Jhenaidaha 444 513 684 54.1 Rangpur 651 763 997 53.2 Joypurhat 241 287 405 67.5 Satkhira 497 588 792 59.3 Khagrachhari 105 124 163 55.0 Shariatpur 239 282 339 42.0 Khulna 964 1124 1495 55.1 Sherpur 304 364 462 51.9 Kishoreganj 642 737 1183 84.4 Sirajganj 667 769 1152 72.7 Kurigram 417 516 627 50.4 Sunamganj 463 537 719 55.4 Kushtia 495 573 697 40.9 Sylhet 679 826 1077 58.6 Lakshmipur 424 478 516 21.8 Tangail 792 926 1223 54.4 Lalmonirhat 248 302 368 48.5 Thakurgaon 348 410 471 35.2 BANGLADESH 39068 45447 59748 52.9 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Table 3: Trends in Agricultural GDP in Bangladesh, by district: 1995/96 to 2005/06 Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06, compared to 1995/96

Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change in 2005/06, compared to 1995/96

Bagerhat 184 224 259 40.8 Madaripur 82 101 85 3.1 Bandarban 36 37 19 -48.2 Magura 100 114 125 24.4 Barguna 125 140 135 8.1 Manikganj 107 130 122 13.7 Barisal 181 213 213 17.9 Maulvibazar 146 167 142 -2.2 Bhola 210 239 225 7.3 Meherpur 59 67 56 -3.9 Bogra 267 313 353 32.2 Munshiganj 74 87 70 -5.8 Brahamanbaria 164 187 214 30.5 Mymensingh 491 551 360 -26.8 Chandpur 179 215 179 0.3 Naogaon 276 319 392 41.8 Chittagong 357 405 421 18.1 Narail 94 105 99 5.5 Chuadanga 88 102 85 -3.3 Narayanganj 48 58 62 28.7 Comilla 362 399 410 13.5 Narsingdi 107 127 123 15.3 Cox's Bazar 214 260 233 9.0 Natore 162 182 209 29.0 Dhaka 62 79 82 32 Nawabganj 111 128 144 30.5 Dinajpur 269 310 356 32.2 Netrakona 244 270 174 -28.6 Faridpur 132 155 133 0.7 Nilphamari 129 148 159 22.6 Feni 85 99 99 15.9 Noakhali 217 261 261 20.0 Gaibandha 180 206 202 12.1 Pabna 150 181 202 34.3 Gazipur 103 123 135 30.7 Panchagarh 85 98 111 31.2 Gopalganj 96 111 94 -2.3 Patuakhali 216 236 237 9.7 Habiganj 152 174 186 22.2 Pirojpur 103 114 108 4.6 Jamalpur 162 190 201 23.9 Rajbari 81 97 78 -4.2 Jessore 249 284 298 20.0 Rajshahi 160 186 211 31.9 Jhalokati 61 61 64 4.8 Rangamati 71 77 39 -45.2 Jhenaidaha 174 194 220 26.5 Rangpur 199 225 233 17.0 Joypurhat 96 113 146 51.6 Satkhira 189 225 263 38.7 Khagrachhari 30 33 38 29.6 Shariatpur 87 104 91 4.7 Khulna 199 246 288 44.6 Sherpur 110 134 131 19.4 Kishoreganj 240 271 474 97.6 Sirajganj 152 175 205 34.9 Kurigram 152 194 182 20.1 Sunamganj 171 203 235 37.4 Kushtia 146 163 115 -21.5 Sylhet 198 232 218 9.9 Lakshmipur 187 201 150 -19.5 Tangail 246 287 294 19.3 Lalmonirhat 93 116 107 15.9 Thakurgaon 129 148 163 26.6 BANGLADESH 9,355 10,855 11,014 17.7 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Table 4: Trends in Industrial GDP in Bangladesh, by district: 1995/96 to 2005/06 Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06, compared to 1995/96

Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change in 2005/06, compared to 1995/96

Bagerhat 64 78 113 76.3 Madaripur 44 54 76 74.6 Bandarban 12 14 20 72.5 Magura 32 39 56 75.1 Barguna 31 38 54 75.1 Manikganj 70 85 121 72.7 Barisal 107 130 186 74.1 Maulvibazar 73 90 128 74.4 Bhola 59 72 103 75.2 Meherpur 34 42 61 78.9 Bogra 125 155 219 75.5 Munshiganj 78 93 134 72.2 Brahamanbaria 220 232 332 50.9 Mymensingh 167 208 293 74.9 Chandpur 82 101 145 77.0 Naogaon 83 104 146 75.4 Chittagong 1,061 1,274 1,869 76.1 Narail 24 30 42 73.2 Chuadanga 48 58 84 73.9 Narayanganj 503 576 848 68.6 Comilla 239 246 338 41.6 Narsingdi 215 252 365 70.0 Cox's Bazar 117 127 203 74.4 Natore 84 104 148 76.5 Dhaka 2,348 2,803 4,103 74.7 Nawabganj 44 54 76 74.1 Dinajpur 114 141 199 75.3 Netrakona 65 80 113 73.9 Faridpur 68 84 120 76.0 Nilphamari 49 61 85 74.3 Feni 61 65 95 56.2 Noakhali 98 120 175 77.4 Gaibandha 76 95 133 74.5 Pabna 201 237 345 71.7 Gazipur 537 626 918 70.9 Panchagarh 27 34 48 74.5 Gopalganj 43 53 77 76.8 Patuakhali 51 62 88 73.9 Habiganj 141 151 228 61.6 Pirojpur 42 51 73 74.7 Jamalpur 93 115 162 74.1 Rajbari 42 51 73 74.6 Jessore 176 214 309 75.0 Rajshahi 110 135 193 74.8 Jhalokati 26 31 44 73.4 Rangamati 108 23 32 -70.6 Jhenaidaha 75 92 132 74.9 Rangpur 109 136 192 75.4 Joypurhat 39 48 68 74.5 Satkhira 87 105 153 75.3 Khagrachhari 16 20 28 72.8 Shariatpur 39 49 69 75.3 Khulna 203 240 351 73.1 Sherpur 51 63 89 75.4 Kishoreganj 99 123 174 75.3 Sirajganj 221 254 386 75.0 Kurigram 60 75 105 74.1 Sunamganj 76 93 132 73.3 Kushtia 120 143 208 72.8 Sylhet 143 211 320 123.3 Lakshmipur 48 60 85 75.5 Tangail 161 194 275 71.5 Lalmonirhat 35 43 61 75.2 Thakurgaon 44 55 77 76.0 BANGLADESH 9,717 11,492 16,674 71.6 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Table 5: Trends in GDP of the Service Sector in Bangladesh, by district: 1995/96 to 2005/06 Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06,

compared to

1995/96


2005/06, compared

to 1995/96

Bagerhat 217 255 370 70.2 Madaripur 134 153 207 53.8 Bandarban 45 53 66 46.7 Magura 95 112 162 71.0 Barguna 108 126 177 64.1 Manikganj 165 186 260 57.7 Barisal 340 389 540 58.8 Maulvibazar 181 207 294 62.6 Bhola 208 242 336 61.7 Meherpur 70 83 119 68.3 Bogra 377 450 651 72.7 Munshiganj 173 192 262 51.4 Brahamanbaria 289 330 474 63.7 Mymensingh 557 647 846 51.9 Chandpur 254 293 398 56.8 Naogaon 279 331 488 74.5 Chittagong 1,637 1,864 2,581 57.6 Narail 88 101 139 59.1 Chuadanga 132 154 208 58.1 Narayanganj 546 612 841 54.1 Comilla 544 620 887 63.0 Narsingdi 274 313 449 63.9 Cox's Bazar 234 273 383 64.1 Natore 202 241 351 73.5 Dhaka 3,304 3,860 5,311 60.8 Nawabganj 160 191 264 64.4 Dinajpur 338 396 575 70.1 Netrakona 229 265 342 49.3 Faridpur 214 245 345 61.0 Nilphamari 181 211 299 65.8 Feni 141 164 235 66.5 Noakhali 297 346 499 67.8 Gaibandha 234 271 391 67.6 Pabna 333 384 553 65.9 Gazipur 491 560 796 62.0 Panchagarh 90 107 156 73.9 Gopalganj 144 161 215 48.7 Patuakhali 195 226 317 62.4 Habiganj 190 216 310 63.0 Pirojpur 147 166 228 55.5 Jamalpur 254 299 429 68.8 Rajbari 110 127 178 62.6 Jessore 356 410 598 67.8 Rajshahi 391 477 648 65.9 Jhalokati 93 106 147 57.4 Rangamati 83 96 116 39.6 Jhenaidaha 195 227 333 70.6 Rangpur 342 402 572 67.2 Joypurhat 106 126 191 79.4 Satkhira 221 257 377 70.8 Khagrachhari 59 70 97 62.8 Shariatpur 112 129 179 59.2 Khulna 562 638 856 52.3 Sherpur 143 167 241 68.5 Kishoreganj 302 343 535 77.0 Sirajganj 294 340 561 90.6 Kurigram 205 247 341 65.9 Sunamganj 216 242 353 63.3 Kushtia 228 267 375 64.1 Sylhet 338 383 539 59.6 Lakshmipur 188 216 281 49.2 Tangail 385 444 653 69.8 Lalmonirhat 121 143 200 66.0 Thakurgaon 176 207 231 31.4 BANGLADESH 19,321 22,358 31,356 62.3 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Table 6: Trends in Crop GDP in Bangladesh, by district: 1995/96 to 2005/06 Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06,

compared to

1995/96


2005/06, compared

to 1995/96

Bagerhat 78 91 133 68.8 Madaripur 49 57 50 1.9 Bandarban 26 27 8 -68.2 Magura 74 81 90 20.7 Barguna 64 61 61 -4.2 Manikganj 79 92 79 0.9 Barisal 95 95 99 3.6 Maulvibazar 98 113 89 -8.9 Bhola 93 93 98 6.0 Meherpur 45 51 33 -25.6 Bogra 176 204 249 41.3 Munshiganj 46 54 44 -4.1 Brahamanbaria 99 102 110 11 Mymensingh 218 262 174 -20.4 Chandpur 81 84 90 10.5 Naogaon 175 206 247 41.5 Chittagong 196 209 195 -0.3 Narail 72 79 72 -0.4 Chuadanga 66 76 50 -24.4 Narayanganj 28 33 26 -9.4 Comilla 212 224 237 11.7 Narsingdi 70 81 66 -5.9 Cox's Bazar 78 84 75 -3.5 Natore 100 119 136 36.6 Dhaka 34 40 33 -1.9 Nawabganj 71 85 96 35.3 Dinajpur 165 185 218 31.9 Netrakona 135 150 89 -34 Faridpur 79 92 77 -3.1 Nilphamari 94 110 117 24.2 Feni 45 50 46 4.0 Noakhali 122 137 118 -2.9 Gaibandha 113 134 137 21.6 Pabna 89 105 123 37.5 Gazipur 60 69 55 -8.9 Panchagarh 55 63 74 34.7 Gopalganj 59 66 55 -6.4 Patuakhali 113 111 114 1.1 Habiganj 101 115 130 29.7 Pirojpur 51 52 53 3.8 Jamalpur 108 130 137 26.5 Rajbari 46 58 44 -6.2 Jessore 163 182 194 18.5 Rajshahi 83 101 118 41.2 Jhalokati 32 32 31 -4.9 Rangamati 47 50 14 -70.8 Jhenaidaha 124 138 154 24.1 Rangpur 140 159 167 19.1 Joypurhat 67 79 96 43.2 Satkhira 93 103 160 72.8 Khagrachhari 17 20 22 24.0 Shariatpur 55 65 52 -4.8 Khulna 78 90 130 65.9 Sherpur 74 92 95 28.6 Kishoreganj 134 147 375 180.7 Sirajganj 92 112 128 38.7 Kurigram 102 123 119 16.6 Sunamganj 110 128 147 33.6 Kushtia 108 118 67 -38.0 Sylhet 103 123 131 28.1 Lakshmipur 72 78 69 -4.3 Tangail 171 201 202 18.1 Lalmonirhat 61 73 74 20.5 Thakurgaon 86 98 110 28.9 BANGLADESH 5,871 6,639 6,881 17.2 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Table 7: Trends in Livestock GDP in Bangladesh, by district: 1995/96 to 2005/06

Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06,

compared to

1995/96


2005/06, compared

to 1995/96

Bagerhat 16 16 18 7.5 Madaripur 12 13 11 -8.9 Bandarban 5 5 4 -8.7 Magura 11 11 10 -8.9 Barguna 15 16 17 13.4 Manikganj 14 15 15 7.6 Barisal 26 27 29 11.9 Maulvibazar 17 18 15 -15.1 Bhola 19 21 29 54.0 Meherpur 8 8 11 49.4 Bogra 39 41 43 11.4 Munshiganj 10 10 8 -24.1 Brahamanbaria 23 25 19 -16.1 Mymensingh 55 56 55 0.3 Chandpur 19 21 22 14.0 Naogaon 42 43 52 23.3 Chittagong 38 39 54 41.6 Narail 9 9 8 -4.2 Chuadanga 12 13 18 46.0 Narayanganj 8 8 9 9.7 Comilla 47 50 58 24.1 Narsingdi 20 20 29 45.8 Cox's Bazar 16 17 18 11.5 Natore 18 18 23 29.5 Dhaka 9 9 22 137.8 Nawabganj 14 15 17 20.6 Dinajpur 44 47 46 6.2 Netrakona 25 26 21 -16.7 Faridpur 25 26 18 -29.0 Nilphamari 20 21 17 -17.3 Feni 12 13 14 14.0 Noakhali 24 26 31 28.6 Gaibandha 29 30 27 -4.3 Pabna 23 24 24 4.9 Gazipur 18 19 35 89.6 Panchagarh 13 13 11 -16.3 Gopalganj 11 11 11 -1.0 Patuakhali 24 26 27 12.6 Habiganj 19 20 15 -20.2 Pirojpur 15 16 17 15.1 Jamalpur 24 25 31 27.9 Rajbari 10 11 11 3.0 Jessore 36 39 36 -1.4 Rajshahi 20 21 30 52.0 Jhalokati 9 9 10 17.0 Rangamati 7 7 8 11.8 Jhenaidaha 23 23 26 13.9 Rangpur 34 35 33 -2.5 Joypurhat 15 16 25 65.0 Satkhira 25 26 21 -16.3 Khagrachhari 7 7 10 46.1 Shariatpur 11 12 13 12.1 Khulna 18 18 21 19.3 Sherpur 14 15 14 -2.3 Kishoreganj 26 27 28 7.4 Sirajganj 26 26 29 11.7 Kurigram 24 25 25 3.7 Sunamganj 24 25 17 -26.3 Kushtia 18 19 21 12.4 Sylhet 25 26 20 -19.4 Lakshmipur 14 15 16 17.4 Tangail 40 41 41 1.6 Lalmonirhat 15 16 13 -18.8 Thakurgaon 21 22 18 -13.4 BANGLADESH 1,312 1,363 1,445 10.1 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Table 8: Trends in Fisheries GDP in Bangladesh, by district: 1995/96 to 2005/06 Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06,

compared to

1995/96


2005/06, compared

to 1995/96

Bagerhat 77 103 94 21.6 Madaripur 12 21 13 3.2 Bandarban 1 1 1 -31.2 Magura 8 13 16 102.2 Barguna 37 53 45 22.6 Manikganj 6 14 16 183.4 Barisal 45 74 67 48.2 Maulvibazar 21 26 27 25.9 Bhola 88 113 85 -3.6 Meherpur 2 2 6 261.7 Bogra 32 45 36 10.7 Munshiganj 13 16 11 -12.3 Brahamanbaria 29 45 68 136.2 Mymensingh 186 195 90 -51.6 Chandpur 69 100 56 -19.2 Naogaon 38 45 65 72.2 Chittagong 107 140 152 41.9 Narail 6 10 11 63.3 Chuadanga 2 4 8 247.4 Narayanganj 8 13 23 181.5 Comilla 81 99 88 8.7 Narsingdi 8 16 18 111.3 Cox's Bazar 113 152 132 16.1 Natore 32 31 34 5.9 Dhaka 14 23 21 46.5 Nawabganj 15 17 18 19.9 Dinajpur 37 51 62 67.8 Netrakona 65 73 40 -37.8 Faridpur 14 21 21 49.2 Nilphamari 3 4 10 225.1 Feni 23 30 31 37.7 Noakhali 58 82 94 62.8 Gaibandha 25 25 20 -20.7 Pabna 24 36 37 55.3 Gazipur 16 24 34 115.8 Panchagarh 8 11 15 93.2 Gopalganj 16 22 15 -6.8 Patuakhali 65 83 78 19.8 Habiganj 19 23 23 22 Pirojpur 27 35 25 -7.5 Jamalpur 16 19 16 -1.5 Rajbari 17 21 15 -15.2 Jessore 31 42 46 48.9 Rajshahi 45 51 49 7.2 Jhalokati 15 15 17 11.1 Rangamati 11 13 10 -12.7 Jhenaidaha 13 17 22 69.9 Rangpur 9 12 13 38.9 Joypurhat 7 10 16 124.9 Satkhira 58 80 64 10.7 Khagrachhari 0 0 0 n.a. Shariatpur 13 17 16 24.3 Khulna 92 125 124 33.6 Sherpur 12 17 10 -16.5 Kishoreganj 64 78 50 -21.3 Sirajganj 18 18 28 55.5 Kurigram 12 31 21 77.3 Sunamganj 19 28 47 150.4 Kushtia 10 14 14 44.4 Sylhet 54 65 45 -16.7 Lakshmipur 93 99 55 -41.0 Tangail 13 19 23 79.3 Lalmonirhat 8 18 11 35.8 Thakurgaon 10 14 19 92.4 BANGLADESH 1920 2482 2237 16.5 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Table 9: Trends in Forestry GDP in Bangladesh, by district: 1995/96 to 2005/06 Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06,

compared to

1995/96


2005/06, compared

to 1995/96

Bagerhat 12 14 16 27.0 Madaripur 9 10 11 27.0 Bandarban 4 5 5 27.0 Magura 7 8 9 27.0 Barguna 9 10 11 27.0 Manikganj 9 10 11 27.0 Barisal 14 17 18 27.0 Maulvibazar 10 11 12 27.0 Bhola 10 12 13 27.0 Meherpur 5 6 6 27.0 Bogra 20 23 25 27.0 Munshiganj 6 6 7 27.0 Brahamanbaria 13 15 16 27.0 Mymensingh 32 37 41 27.0 Chandpur 9 11 12 27.0 Naogaon 22 26 28 27.0 Chittagong 16 18 20 27.0 Narail 6 7 8 27.0 Chuadanga 8 9 10 27.0 Narayanganj 4 4 5 27.0 Comilla 22 25 28 27.0 Narsingdi 9 10 11 27.0 Cox's Bazar 6 8 8 27.0 Natore 12 14 15 27.0 Dhaka 5 6 6 27.0 Nawabganj 10 12 13 27.0 Dinajpur 23 27 29 27.0 Netrakona 18 21 23 27.0 Faridpur 13 16 17 27.0 Nilphamari 12 13 15 27.0 Feni 6 7 7 27.0 Noakhali 13 16 17 27.0 Gaibandha 14 16 18 27.0 Pabna 14 17 18 27.0 Gazipur 9 11 12 27.0 Panchagarh 9 11 11 27.0 Gopalganj 10 12 13 27.0 Patuakhali 14 16 18 27.0 Habiganj 13 16 17 27.0 Pirojpur 10 11 12 27.0 Jamalpur 14 16 17 27.0 Rajbari 7 8 9 27.0 Jessore 18 21 23 27.0 Rajshahi 12 14 15 27.0 Jhalokati 5 6 6 27.0 Rangamati 6 7 8 27.0 Jhenaidaha 13 16 17 27.0 Rangpur 16 19 21 27.0 Joypurhat 7 8 9 27.0 Satkhira 14 17 18 27.0 Khagrachhari 5 6 7 27.0 Shariatpur 8 9 10 27.0 Khulna 11 13 14 27.0 Sherpur 9 11 11 27.0 Kishoreganj 17 20 21 27.0 Sirajganj 16 18 20 27.0 Kurigram 13 15 16 27.0 Sunamganj 19 22 24 27.0 Kushtia 10 12 13 27.0 Sylhet 17 19 21 27.0 Lakshmipur 8 9 10 27.0 Tangail 23 26 29 27.0 Lalmonirhat 8 10 10 27.0 Thakurgaon 13 15 16 27.0 BANGLADESH 755 878 958 27.0 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


II.2 GDP Growth Performance Annual compound rates of growth in total GDP and different sectors of the economy

(agriculture, industry and service) were estimated at the national and district level. Annual

compound rates of growth in different sub-sectors of agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries and

forestry) were also calculated. Growth estimates were done for three periods: late 1990s

(1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2001/02-2005/06) and overall period (1995/96-2005/06).

Depending upon the rate of growth, study districts may be classified into four categories: high

growth (>5% annual compounded rate of growth), moderate growth (2-5% annual compound

rate of growth), slow growth (up to 2% annual compound rate of growth) and negative growth.

Performance of the Bangladesh economy in late 1990s and early 2000s are reported in Table 10.

GDP growth in the 1990s (3.85% per annum) was less than the long term (1981/82-2005/06)

growth (5.12%) and medium term (1995/96-2005/06) growth (4.15%). In early 1990s,

agriculture sector performed better that that of long-term (3.10%), medium term (1.06%). On the

other hand, agriculture in the early 2000s performed better than medium term but poorer than

long-term growth. Growth performance of the industrial sector in late 1990s was poorer than

long-term and medium term growth performance but in early 2000s growth in industrial sector

was higher than the long-term and medium term growth. Performance of the service sector was

similar to that of industrial sector.

Table 10: Growth performance of the economy of Bangladesh in late 1990s and early 2000s,

compared to medium and long term trends

(% per annum) Sector 1980s

(1981/82-1989/90)

1990s (1990/91-1999/00)

Late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00)

Early 2000s (2001/02-2005/06)

Long-term growth

(1981/82-2005/06)

Medium term (1995/96-2005/06)

Agriculture 5.36 3.70 3.88 2.09 3.10 1.06 Crop 1.83 1.46 3.48 2.58 1.89 1.00 Livestock 2.09 2.50 0.82 3.02 6.43 0.53 Fisheries 2.30 7.77 6.62 0.12 10.19 1.02 Forestry 2.36 3.57 3.97 2.60 3.56 2.45 Industry 5.71 6.86 4.19 7.51 6.39 5.16 Service 5.92 5.33 3.66 7.18 5.59 5.02 Total GDP 5.70 5.24 3.85 6.17 5.12 4.15 Source: Own estimate, based on BBS data.


Growth in GDP: Bangladesh experienced moderate growth (3.85% per annum) in GDP in the

late 1990s, high growth (6.17% per annum) in the early 2000s and moderate growth (4.15% per

annum) in the overall period (Table 11). During the late 1990s, two districts (Lalmonirhat,

Kurigram) had high growth, four districts (Jhalokati, Comilla, Brahamanbaria, Habiganj)

experienced slow growth, one district (Rangamati) had negative growth while all other districts

(57 districts) had moderate growth. In the early 2000s, 15 districts (Barguna, Patuakhali,

Mymensingh, Bhola, Kishoreganj, Netrakona, Noakhali, Chandpur, Lakshmipur, Pirojpur,

Manikganj, Panchagarh, Cox's Bazar, Jhalokati, Thakurgaon) experienced moderate growth in

GDP and all other districts had high growth (Comilla, Barisal, Gaibandha, Habiganj, Gopalganj,

Dinajpur, Feni, Maulvibazar, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Shariatpur, Sylhet, Sunamganj,

Joypurhat, Faridpur, Kurigram, Madaripur, Munshiganj, Sherpur, Bandarban, Brahamanbaria,

Meherpur, Bogra, Tangail, Narail, Magura, Rangpur, Jamalpur, Rangamati, Rajbari, Chuadanga,

Nawabganj, Naogaon, Kushtia, Bagerhat, Natore, Jhenaidaha, Pabna, Narsingdi, Sirajganj,

Jessore, Rajshahi, Satkhira, Khulna, Chittagong, Gazipur, Narayanganj, Dhaka, Khagrachhari) in

GDP. During the overall period (1995/96-2005/06), four districts (Joypurhat, Sirajganj,

Kishoreganj, Khagrachhari) had high growth, seven districts (Bandarban, Netrakona,

Lakshmipur, Mymensingh, Narail, Thakurgaon, Gopalganj) experienced slow growth, one

district (Rangamati) had negative growth while all other districts (52 districts) had moderate

growth. Growth in Agricultural GDP: Bangladesh experienced moderate growth (3.88% per annum)

in GDP in the late 1990s, slow growth (2.09% per annum) in the early 2000s and slow growth

(1.06% per annum) in the overall period in its agricultural GDP (Table 12). During the late

1990s, nine districts (Pabna, Narayanganj, Bagerhat, Khulna, Sherpur, Chandpur, Lalmonirhat,

Dhaka, Kurigram) had high growth, 47 districts (Khagrachhari, Natore, Jhenaidaha, Kushtia,

Netrakona, Narail, Rangpur, Barguna, Gaibandha, Chittagong, Maulvibazar, Kishoreganj,

Jessore, Brahamanbaria, Habiganj, Meherpur, Magura, Mymensingh, Nilphamari, Dinajpur,

Madaripur, Chuadanga, Thakurgaon, Naogaon, Barisal, Sirajganj, Gopalganj, Tangail, Feni,

Panchagarh, Sylhet, Nawabganj, Jamalpur, Bogra, Joypurhat, Satkhira, Faridpur, Sunamganj,

Rajshahi, Narsingdi, Manikganj, Gazipur, Shariatpur, Cox's Bazar, Noakhali, Munshiganj,

Rajbari) had moderate growth, seven districts (Bandarban, Lakshmipur, Rangamati, Patuakhali,


Comilla, Bhola, Pirojpur) experienced slow growth, and one district (Jhalokati) had negative

growth.

In the early 2000s, two districts (Satkhira and Khagrachhari) had high growth, 13 districts

(Bogra, Sherpur, Jamalpur, Rajshahi, Nawabganj, Magura, Narail, Natore, Jessore, Jhenaidaha,

Khulna, Naogaon, Bagerhat) experienced moderate growth in GDP, 40 districts had slow growth

(Dhaka, Munshiganj , Bhola, Manikganj, Jhalokati, Lakshmipur, Feni, Barisal, Cox's Bazar,

Pirojpur, Chittagong, Comilla, Maulvibazar, Habiganj, Kishoreganj, Narsingdi, Kushtia,

Faridpur, Panchagarh, Gazipur, Thakurgaon, Gaibandha, Dinajpur, Rangamati, Chuadanga,

Meherpur, Brahamanbaria, Lalmonirhat, Gopalganj, Shariatpur, Nilphamari, Kurigram, Rangpur,

Pabna, Tangail, Sirajganj, Madaripur, Sunamganj, Joypurhat, Rajbari) and nine districts

(Mymensingh, Barguna, Bandarban, Narayanganj, Patuakhali, Sylhet, Noakhali, Chandpur,

Netrakona) had negative growth in agricultural GDP.

During the overall period (1995/96-2005/06), two districts (Kishoreganj, Khagrachhari) had high

growth, three districts (Sirajganj, Naogaon, Joypurhat) experienced moderate growth, 39

districts (Lalmonirhat, Cox's Bazar, Sylhet, Kurigram, Patuakhali, Gaibandha, Sherpur, Barisal,

Jhalokati, Jessore, Manikganj, Feni, Narsingdi, Rangpur, Satkhira, Comilla, Magura, Tangail,

Habiganj, Jamalpur, Nilphamari, Noakhali, Bagerhat, Chittagong, Jhenaidaha, Thakurgaon,

Khulna, Nawabganj, Narayanganj, Dhaka, Natore, Pabna, Gazipur, Panchagarh, Sunamganj,

Rajshahi, Brahamanbaria, Dinajpur, Bogra) experienced slow growth, 15 districts (Lakshmipur,

Rajbari, Maulvibazar, Chuadanga, Meherpur, Gopalganj, Madaripur, Munshiganj, Chandpur,

Faridpur, Narail, Shariatpur, Pirojpur, Barguna, Bhola) had negative growth and five districts

(Rangamati, Bandarban, Netrakona, Kushtia, Mymensingh) had extremely negative growth in

agricultural GDP. Growth in Service Sector GDP: Bangladesh experienced moderate growth (3.66% per annum)

in service GDP in the late 1990s, high growth (7.18% per annum) in the early 2000s and high

growth (5.02% per annum) in the overall period in its service sector GDP (Table 15). During the

late 1990s, six districts (Gopalganj, Munshiganj, Sunamganj, Manikganj, Madaripur, and

Narayanganj) had slow growth and all other districts (58 districts) had moderate growth in its

service sector GDP. In the early 2000s, all of the 64 districts experienced high growth in service


sector GDP. During the overall period (1995/96-2005/06), 43 districts (Shariatpur, Faridpur,

Sylhet, Cox's Bazar, Kushtia, Rajbari, Bhola, Rajshahi, Narsingdi, Patuakhali, Maulvibazar,

Kurigram, Nawabganj, Comilla, Brahamanbaria, Pabna, Barguna, Habiganj, Lalmonirhat, Feni,

Jessore, Sunamganj, Rangpur, Nilphamari, Satkhira, Jamalpur, Bagerhat, Sherpur, Meherpur,

Jhenaidaha, Gaibandha, Magura, Noakhali, Tangail, Dinajpur, Bogra, Natore, Panchagarh,

Naogaon, Kishoreganj, Khagrachhari, Joypurhat, Sirajganj) had high growth, 20 districts

(Rangamati, Bandarban, Khulna, Narayanganj, Lakshmipur, Gopalganj, Netrakona, Dhaka,

Madaripur, Munshiganj, Chittagong, Mymensingh, Chuadanga, Gazipur, Narail, Pirojpur,

Chandpur, Barisal, Jhalokati, Manikganj) experienced moderate growth, and one district

(Thakurgaon) experienced slow growth.

Growth in Industrial GDP: Bangladesh experienced moderate growth (4.19% per annum) in

industrial GDP in the late 1990s, high growth (7.51% per annum) in the early 2000s and high

growth (5.16% per annum) in the overall period in its industrial GDP (Table 16). During the late

1990s, 25 districts (Kishoreganj, Meherpur, Shariatpur, Joypurhat, Chandpur, Sherpur, Jamalpur,

Netrakona, Madaripur, Dinajpur, Natore, Nawabganj, Panchagarh, Mymensingh, Bogra,

Khagrachhari, Nilphamari, Kurigram, Rangpur, Thakurgaon, Gaibandha, Lakshmipur,

Lalmonirhat, Naogaon, Sylhet) had high growth, 29 districts (Narayanganj, Sirajganj, Narsingdi,

Gazipur, Pabna, Khulna, Kushtia, Dhaka, Munshiganj, Bandarban, Manikganj, Tangail,

Bagerhat, Satkhira, Patuakhali, Barguna, Chittagong, Jhenaidaha, Bhola, Rajbari, Barisal,

Jessore, Sunamganj, Chuadanga, Jhalokati, Pirojpur, Rajshahi, Magura, Narail, Noakhali,

Maulvibazar, Gopalganj, Faridpur) experienced moderate growth, and five districts (Comilla,

Brahamanbaria, Habiganj, Feni, Cox's Bazar) experienced slow growth and one district

(Rangamati) experienced extremely negative growth in industrial GDP. In the early 2000s, all of

the 64 districts experienced high growth in industrial GDP. During the overall period (1995/96-

2005/06), 7 districts (Brahamanbaria, Comilla, Dhaka, Feni, Gazipur, Narayanganj, Narsingdi)

experienced moderate growth, and one district (Rangamati) experienced negative growth and all

other districts experienced high growth. Growth in Crop GDP: Bangladesh experienced moderate growth (3.48% per annum) in crop

GDP in the late 1990s, slow growth (2.58% per annum) in the early 2000s and slow growth

(1.00% per annum) in the overall period in its crop GDP (Table 17). During the late 1990s, seven


districts (Nawabganj, Jamalpur, Kurigram, Sirajganj, Rajshahi, Rajbari and Sherpur) had high

growth, 47 districts (Jessore, Netrakona, Jhenaidaha, Feni, Gopalganj, Dinajpur, Habiganj,

Noakhali, Khagrachhari, Maulvibazar, Meherpur, Rangpur, Chuadanga, Madaripur, Narsingdi,

Thakurgaon, Bogra, Gazipur, Khulna, Narayanganj, Sunamganj, Panchagarh, Bagerhat,

Faridpur, Nilphamari, Manikganj, Tangail, Pabna, Joypurhat, Munshiganj, Lalmonirhat,

Naogaon, Sylhet, Shariatpur, Gaibandha, Natore, Dhaka, Mymensingh) had moderate growth, 15

districts (Barisal, Bhola, Pirojpur, Brahamanbaria, Chandpur, Bandarban, Rangamati, Comilla,

Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, Lakshmipur, Kushtia, Kishoreganj, Magura, Narail, Satkhira)

experienced slow growth, and three districts (Barguna, Jhalokati, Patuakhali) had negative

growth.

In the early 2000s, eight districts (Bagerhat, Jessore, Jhenaidaha, Khagrachhari, Khulna, Magura,

Narail, Satkhira) had high growth, 17 districts (Bogra, Faridpur, Gopalganj, Jamalpur,

Joypurhat, Madaripur, Naogaon, Natore, Nawabganj, Pabna, Rajbari, Rajshahi, Rangamati,

Shariatpur, Sherpur, Sirajganj, Tangail) had moderate growth, seven districts (Barguna, Feni,

Lakshmipur, Mymensingh, Netrakona, Noakhali, Patuakhali) had negative growth and one

district (Bandarban) showed extremely negative growth. On the other hand 31 districts (Barisal,

Bhola, Brahamanbaria, Chandpur, Chittagong, Chuadanga, Comilla, Cox's Bazar, Dhaka,

Dinajpur, Gaibandha, Gazipur, Habiganj, Jhalokati, Kishoreganj, Kurigram, Kushtia,

Lalmonirhat, Manikganj, Maulvibazar, Meherpur, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, Narsingdi,

Nilphamari, Panchagarh, Pirojpur, Rangpur, Sunamganj, Sylhet, Thakurgaon) experienced slow

growth in crop GDP.

During the overall period (1995/96-2005/06), two districts (Kishoreganj, Khagrachhari) had high

growth, two districts (Bogra, Joypurhat) experienced moderate growth, 32 districts (Bagerhat,

Brahamanbaria, Chandpur, Chittagong, Comilla, Dinajpur, Feni, Gaibandha, Habiganj, Jamalpur,

Jessore, Jhenaidaha, Khulna, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Magura, Naogaon, Natore, Nawabganj,

Nilphamari, Pabna, Panchagarh, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Satkhira, Sherpur, Sirajganj, Sunamganj,

Sylhet, Tangail, Thakurgaon) experienced slow growth, 21 districts (Barguna, Barisal, Bhola,

Cox's Bazar, Dhaka, Faridpur, Gazipur, Gopalganj, Jhalokati, Lakshmipur, Madaripur,

Manikganj, Munshiganj, Mymensingh, Narail, Narayanganj, Narsingdi, Noakhali, Patuakhali,


Pirojpur, Rajbari, Shariatpur) had negative growth and seven districts (Bandarban, Chuadanga,

Kushtia, Maulvibazar, Meherpur, Netrakona, Rangamati) had extremely negative growth in crop

GDP.

Growth in Livestock GDP: Bangladesh experienced slow growth (0.82% per annum) in

livestock GDP in the late 1990s, moderate growth (3.02% per annum) in the early 2000s and

slow growth (0.53% per annum) in the overall period in its livestock GDP (Table 18). During the

late 1990s, 62 districts had show slow growth and two districts (Bagerhat, Nawabganj) had

negative growth in livestock GDP. In the early 2000s, all districts had moderate growth in

livestock GDP.

During the overall period (1995/96-2005/06), two districts (Gazipur, Joypurhat) had high growth,

seven districts (Bhola, Chittagong, Chuadanga, Khagrachhari, Meherpur, Narsingdi, Rajshahi)

experienced moderate growth, 26 districts (Chandpur, Comilla, Cox's Bazar, Feni, Jamalpur,

Jhalokati, Jhenaidaha, Khulna, Kishoreganj, Kushtia, Lakshmipur, Manikganj, Naogaon,

Narayanganj, Natore, Nawabganj, Noakhali, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Rangamati, Shariatpur,

Sirajganj) experienced slow growth, 16 districts (Bandarban, Dinajpur, Gaibandha, Gopalganj,

Jessore, Kurigram, Madaripur, Magura, Mymensingh, Narail, Pabna, Rajbari, Rangpur,

Sherpur, Tangail, Thakurgaon) had negative growth and 12 districts (Brahamanbaria, Faridpur,

Habiganj, Lalmonirhat, Maulvibazar, Munshiganj, Netrakona, Nilphamari, Panchagarh, Satkhira,

Sunamganj, Sylhet) had extremely negative growth in livestock GDP.

Growth in Fishery GDP: Bangladesh experienced high growth (6.62% per annum) in fisheries

GDP in the late 1990s, slow growth (0.12% per annum) in the early 2000s and slow growth

(1.02% per annum) in the overall period in its fishery GDP (Table 19). During the late 1990s, 48

districts (Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Bogra, Brahamanbaria, Chandpur, Chittagong,

Chuadanga, Cox's Bazar, Dhaka, Dinajpur, Faridpur, Feni, Gazipur, Gopalganj, Habiganj,

Jessore, Jhenaidaha, Joypurhat, Khulna, Kishoreganj, Kurigram, Kushtia, Lalmonirhat,

Madaripur, Magura, Manikganj, Meherpur, Munshiganj, Narail, Narayanganj, Narsingdi,

Nilphamari, Noakhali, Pabna, Panchagarh, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Rajbari, Rangpur, Satkhira,

Shariatpur, Sherpur, Sunamganj, Tangail, Thakurgaon) had high growth, 10 districts (Comilla,


Jamalpur, Maulvibazar, Mymensingh, Naogaon, Nawabganj, Netrakona, Rajshahi, Rangamati,

Sylhet) had moderate growth, two districts (Lakshmipur, Sirajganj) had slow growth, three

districts (Gaibandha, Jhalokati, Natore) had negative growth and one (Bandarban) had extremely

negative growth in fishery GDP.

In the early 2000s, four districts (Brahamanbaria, Naogaon, Natore, Sunamganj) had high

growth, two districts (Feni, Netrakona) had moderate growth, 23 districts (Chittagong,

Chuadanga, Comilla, Cox's Bazar, Dinajpur, Gazipur, Jamalpur, Jessore, Jhenaidaha, Khulna,

Kurigram, Lakshmipur, Madaripur, Meherpur, Narsingdi, Nawabganj, Noakhali, Pabna,

Panchagarh, Rajbari, Rajshahi, Sherpur, Sirajganj, Thakurgaon) had slow growth and 28 district

(Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Bogra, Chandpur, Dhaka, Gopalganj, Habiganj, Jhalokati,

Joypurhat, Kishoreganj, Kushtia, Lalmonirhat, Magura, Manikganj, Maulvibazar, Munshiganj,

Narail, Narayanganj, Nilphamari, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Rangamati, Rangpur, Satkhira,

Shariatpur, Tangail) had negative growth and 5 districts (Bandarban, Faridpur, Gaibandha,

Mymensingh, Sylhet) had extremely negative growth in fishery GDP.

During the overall period (1995/96-2005/06), 18 districts (Bandarban, Brahamanbaria,

Chuadanga, Dinajpur, Gazipur, Jhenaidaha, Joypurhat, Magura, Manikganj, Meherpur, Naogaon,

Narayanganj, Narsingdi, Nilphamari, Panchagarh, Sirajganj, Sunamganj, Thakurgaon) had high

growth, 12 districts (Chittagong, Faridpur, Jessore, Jhalokati, Kushtia, Maulvibazar, Narail,

Natore, Noakhali, Pabna, Rangpur, Tangail) experienced moderate growth, 13 districts

(Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Comilla, Cox's Bazar, Dhaka, Feni, Habiganj, Khulna, Nawabganj,

Patuakhali, Rajshahi, Shariatpur) experienced slow growth, 13 districts (Bhola, Bogra,

Gaibandha, Gopalganj, Jamalpur, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Munshiganj, Pirojpur, Rajbari,

Rangamati, Satkhira, Sylhet) had negative growth and seven districts (Chandpur, Kishoreganj,

Lakshmipur, Madaripur, Mymensingh, Netrakona, Sherpur) had extremely negative growth in

fishery GDP.

Growth in Forestry GDP: Bangladesh experienced moderate growth (3.97% per annum) in

forestry GDP in the late 1990s, slow growth (2.60% per annum) in the early 2000s and slow

growth (2.5% per annum) in the overall period in its forestry GDP (Table 20). All districts

experienced slow growth in the late 1990s, moderate growth in the early 2000s and slow growth

in the overall period.


Table 11: District Level Growth in GDP, by source: 1995/96- 2005/06. Districts Annual Compound growth rate

(%)

Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%)

Agriculture

Industry

Service

Total GDP

Agriculture Industry Service Total GDP

Bagerhat 1.8 5.4 5.5 4.2 Madaripur -1.2 5.4 4.5 3.1 Bandarban -8.0 5.4 3.8 0.7 Magura 1.3 5.5 5.6 3.8 Barguna -0.1 5.4 5.3 3.1 Manikganj 0.9 5.3 4.9 3.8 Barisal 0.6 5.3 4.9 3.8 Maulvibazar -1.5 5.4 5.2 3.1 Bhola -0.1 5.4 5.1 3.1 Meherpur -1.3 5.6 5.5 3.5 Bogra 2.9 5.5 5.8 4.8 Munshiganj -1.2 5.2 4.6 3.6 Brahamanbaria

2.8 4.0 5.3 4.3 Mymensingh -3.4 5.5 4.6 2.1

Chandpur -0.9 5.6 4.8 3.2 Naogaon 3.3 5.5 6.0 4.9 Chittagong 1.8 5.3 4.6 4.6 Narail -0.9 5.4 4.8 2.6 Chuadanga -1.3 5.4 4.7 3.2 Narayanganj 2.4 4.9 4.3 4.5 Comilla 1.3 3.5 5.3 3.8 Narsingdi 1.1 4.9 5.2 4.4 Cox's Bazar 0.2 5.1 5.1 3.4 Natore 2.5 5.4 5.9 4.7 Dhaka 2.5 5.0 4.5 4.7 Nawabganj 2.3 5.5 5.2 4.3 Dinajpur 2.8 5.5 5.7 4.6 Netrakona -4.0 5.5 4.4 1.4 Faridpur -0.9 5.5 5.0 3.5 Nilphamari 1.5 5.5 5.4 4.1 Feni 1.0 4.8 5.4 4.1 Noakhali 1.5 5.5 5.6 4.3 Gaibandha 0.5 5.5 5.6 3.9 Pabna 2.5 5.1 5.3 4.6 Gazipur 2.6 5.0 4.8 4.7 Panchagarh 2.6 5.5 6.0 4.6 Gopalganj -1.2 5.6 4.3 2.9 Patuakhali 0.4 5.3 5.2 3.2 Habiganj 1.4 5.4 5.3 4.2 Pirojpur -0.3 5.4 4.8 3.3 Jamalpur 1.4 5.4 5.5 4.3 Rajbari -1.7 5.4 5.1 3.2 Jessore 0.9 5.3 5.4 4.1 Rajshahi 2.7 5.4 5.1 4.6 Jhalokati 0.8 5.3 4.9 3.8 Rangamati -8.3 -2.7 3.2 -1.9 Jhenaidaha 1.8 5.4 5.6 4.2 Rangpur 1.1 5.5 5.4 4.2 Joypurhat 4.7 5.4 6.5 5.6 Satkhira 1.2 5.4 5.5 4.0 Khagrachhari 8.6 5.4 6.4 7.5 Shariatpur -0.6 5.4 5.0 3.3 Khulna 2.3 5.2 4.2 4.0 Sherpur 0.5 5.5 5.5 3.9 Kishoreganj 7.7 5.5 6.3 6.7 Sirajganj 3.0 5.6 7.3 5.8 Kurigram 0.3 5.5 5.2 3.6 Sunamganj 2.6 5.3 5.4 4.4 Kushtia -3.8 5.2 5.1 3.1 Sylhet 0.2 8.3 5.0 4.6 Lakshmipur -2.7 5.5 4.3 1.9 Tangail 1.3 5.2 5.7 4.4 Lalmonirhat 0.1 5.6 5.3 3.5 Thakurgaon 2.1 5.5 2.2 2.6 BANGLAD

ESH 1.1 5.2 5.0 4.2

Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from Directorate of Fisheries.


Table 12: District Level Growth in Different Sub-Sectors of Agricultural GDP: 1995/96- 2005/06. Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%) in Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%) in Crop Live

stock Fish eries

Fore stry

Agri culture

Crop Live stock

Fish eries

For estry

Agri culture

Bagerhat 2.3 0.4 1.4 2.5 1.8 Madaripur -0.8 -2.0 -3.0 2.5 3.1 Bandarban -13.6 -2.0 7.8 2.5 -8.0 Magura 0.8 -2.1 6.0 2.5 3.8 Barguna -1.5 0.9 0.9 2.5 -0.1 Manikganj -0.1 0.3 7.0 2.5 3.8 Barisal -0.5 0.7 1.8 2.5 0.6 Maulvibazar -3 -3.0 3.0 2.5 3.1 Bhola -0.3 4.9 -1.6 2.5 -0.1 Meherpur -4.6 4.7 14.6 2.5 3.5 Bogra 3.9 0.6 -0.3 2.5 2.9 Munshiganj -0.8 -4.5 -1.8 2.5 3.6 Brahamanbaria 1.4 -3.3 8.6 2.5 2.8 Mymensingh -2.5 -0.6 -8.0 2.5 2.1 Chandpur 1.4 0.8 -4.8 2.5 -0.9 Naogaon 2.9 2.2 6.5 2.5 4.9 Chittagong 0.0 4 3.6 2.5 1.8 Narail -1.9 -1.3 4.0 2.5 2.6 Chuadanga -4.4 4.4 12.6 2.5 -1.3 Narayanganj -1.6 0.6 10.7 2.5 4.5 Comilla 1.3 2 0.6 2.5 1.3 Narsingdi -1 4.4 5.1 2.5 4.4 Cox's Bazar -0.7 0.7 0.6 2.5 0.2 Natore 2.3 2.8 3.2 2.5 4.7 Dhaka -0.5 11.1 2.0 2.5 2.5 Nawabganj 2.2 1.9 2.9 2.5 4.3 Dinajpur 2.8 -0.2 5.3 2.5 2.8 Netrakona -4.4 -3.2 -6.2 2.5 1.4 Faridpur -1.6 -5.5 3.8 2.5 -0.9 Nilphamari 1.4 -3.3 15.6 2.5 4.1 Feni 0.0 0.9 2.2 2.5 1.0 Noakhali -0.9 2.5 4.8 2.5 4.3 Gaibandha 1.1 -1.5 -1.4 2.5 0.5 Pabna 2.8 -0.1 3.2 2.5 4.6 Gazipur -1.5 8.1 7.2 2.5 2.6 Panchagarh 2.9 -3.1 6.8 2.5 4.6 Gopalganj -1.8 -0.9 -2.0 2.5 -1.2 Patuakhali -0.9 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.2 Habiganj 1.9 -3.9 2.0 2.5 1.4 Pirojpur -0.6 1.1 -1.5 2.5 3.3 Jamalpur 1.3 2.6 -0.1 2.5 1.4 Rajbari -2.5 -0.4 -2.4 2.5 3.2 Jessore 0.5 -1.2 3.7 2.5 0.9 Rajshahi 2.7 4.9 1.7 2.5 4.6 Jhalokati -1.5 1.3 4.5 2.5 0.8 Rangamati -16.5 0.8 -1.8 2.5 -1.9 Jhenaidaha 1.2 1.1 5.8 2.5 1.8 Rangpur 1.2 -1.2 3.3 2.5 4.2 Joypurhat 3.9 6.1 9.5 2.5 4.7 Satkhira 2.8 -3.1 -0.5 2.5 4.0 Khagrachhari 9.3 4.5 0.0 2.5 8.6 Shariatpur -2.1 0.7 1.8 2.5 3.3 Khulna 2.1 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.3 Sherpur 1.2 -1.1 -4.5 2.5 3.9 Kishoreganj 12.2 0.2 -3.4 2.5 7.7 Sirajganj 2.7 0.8 7.9 2.5 5.8 Kurigram 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 2.5 0.3 Sunamganj 2.2 -5.1 9.2 2.5 4.4 Kushtia -6.8 0.9 3.2 2.5 -3.8 Sylhet 1.5 -3.7 -2.1 2.5 4.6 Lakshmipur -0.9 1.3 -6.0 2.5 -2.7 Tangail 1.2 -0.5 5.0 2.5 4.4 Lalmonirhat 0.9 -3.5 -2.0 2.5 0.1 Thakurgaon 2.3 -2.7 6.7 2.5 2.6 BANGLADESH 1 0.5 1 2.5 4.2 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 13: District Level Growth in GDP (At Current Price): late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of

growth (%) in Districts Annual Compound rate of

growth (%) in Late 1990s

(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 4.56 6.18 4.2 Madaripur 3.55 5.48 3.1 Bandarban 3.07 5.71 0.7 Magura 4.07 5.97 3.8 Barguna 3.84 3.20 3.1 Manikganj 3.75 4.74 3.8 Barisal 3.71 5.06 3.8 Maulvibazar 3.72 5.20 3.1 Bhola 3.43 4.06 3.1 Meherpur 4.19 5.77 3.5 Bogra 4.56 5.82 4.8 Munshiganj 3.58 5.50 3.6 Brahamanbaria 2.67 5.77 4.3 Mymensingh 3.98 3.99 2.1 Chandpur 4.69 4.54 3.2 Naogaon 4.25 6.14 4.9 Chittagong 3.82 7.06 4.6 Narail 3.58 5.91 2.6 Chuadanga 4.04 6.05 3.2 Narayanganj 3.25 7.74 4.5 Comilla 2.46 5.06 3.8 Narsingdi 3.67 6.55 4.4 Cox's Bazar 3.93 4.75 3.4 Natore 4.05 6.48 4.7 Dhaka 4.11 8.06 4.7 Nawabganj 4.40 6.10 4.3 Dinajpur 4.08 5.16 4.6 Netrakona 3.59 4.31 1.4 Faridpur 3.93 5.40 3.5 Nilphamari 4.03 5.27 4.1 Feni 3.43 5.20 4.1 Noakhali 4.40 4.41 4.3 Gaibandha 3.88 5.07 3.9 Pabna 4.08 6.54 4.6 Gazipur 3.78 7.59 4.7 Panchagarh 4.43 4.74 4.6 Gopalganj 3.44 5.13 2.9 Patuakhali 3.26 3.47 3.2 Habiganj 2.74 5.11 4.2 Pirojpur 3.31 4.70 3.3 Jamalpur 4.32 5.99 4.3 Rajbari 4.32 6.01 3.2 Jessore 3.84 6.67 4.1 Rajshahi 4.84 6.74 4.6 Jhalokati 2.41 4.79 3.8 Rangamati -5.10 6.01 -1.9 Jhenaidaha 3.72 6.51 4.2 Rangpur 4.10 5.97 4.2 Joypurhat 4.41 5.36 5.6 Satkhira 4.18 6.80 4.0 Khagrachhari 4.06 15.43 7.5 Shariatpur 4.16 5.27 3.3 Khulna 3.81 6.86 4.0 Sherpur 4.66 5.69 3.9 Kishoreganj 3.58 4.23 6.7 Sirajganj 3.69 6.56 5.8 Kurigram 5.46 5.44 3.6 Sunamganj 3.71 5.34 4.4 Kushtia 3.78 6.17 3.1 Sylhet 4.80 5.29 4.6 Lakshmipur 3.01 4.60 1.9 Tangail 3.88 5.90 4.4 Lalmonirhat 5.08 5.23 3.5 Thakurgaon 4.22 4.84 2.6 BANGLADESH 3.85 6.17 4.2 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 14: District Level Growth in Agricultural GDP (current price): late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of



(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 5.08 4.93 1.8 Madaripur 3.70 2.78 -1.2 Bandarban 1.15 -0.49 -8.0 Magura 3.63 4.21 1.3 Barguna 3.38 -0.75 1.1 Manikganj 4.61 0.46 0.9 Barisal 3.84 0.68 -0.1 Maulvibazar 3.50 1.17 -1.5 Bhola 2.88 0.40 0.6 Meherpur 3.60 1.99 -1.3 Bogra 4.33 3.08 -0.1 Munshiganj 4.86 0.32 -1.2 Brahamanbaria 3.57 2.00 2.9 Mymensingh 3.65 -1.70 -3.4 Chandpur 5.80 -0.08 2.8 Naogaon 3.83 4.73 3.3 Chittagong 3.43 0.87 -0.9 Narail 3.29 4.24 -0.9 Chuadanga 3.75 1.97 1.8 Narayanganj 5.06 -0.37 2.4 Comilla 2.62 1.06 -1.3 Narsingdi 4.54 1.26 1.1 Cox's Bazar 4.81 0.73 1.3 Natore 3.01 4.29 2.5 Dhaka 5.90 0.29 0.2 Nawabganj 4.11 3.67 2.3 Dinajpur 3.70 1.85 2.5 Netrakona 3.10 -0.01 -4.0 Faridpur 4.36 1.45 2.8 Nilphamari 3.68 2.26 1.5 Feni 4.06 0.57 -0.9 Noakhali 4.85 -0.18 1.5 Gaibandha 3.40 1.80 1.0 Pabna 5.03 2.70 2.5 Gazipur 4.64 1.75 0.5 Panchagarh 4.06 1.74 2.6 Gopalganj 3.93 2.21 2.6 Patuakhali 2.43 -0.35 0.4 Habiganj 3.58 1.18 -1.2 Pirojpur 2.91 0.74 -0.3 Jamalpur 4.21 3.26 1.4 Rajbari 4.92 2.99 -1.7 Jessore 3.55 4.44 1.4 Rajshahi 4.41 3.28 2.7 Jhalokati -0.05 0.49 0.9 Rangamati 2.36 1.97 -8.3 Jhenaidaha 3.05 4.64 0.8 Rangpur 3.37 2.48 1.1 Joypurhat 4.33 2.95 1.8 Satkhira 4.35 6.14 1.2 Khagrachhari 3.00 22.75 4.7 Shariatpur 4.65 2.25 -0.6 Khulna 5.22 4.64 8.6 Sherpur 5.37 3.09 0.5 Kishoreganj 3.51 1.22 2.3 Sirajganj 3.92 2.75 3.0 Kurigram 6.48 2.39 7.7 Sunamganj 4.37 2.81 2.6 Kushtia 3.09 1.42 0.3 Sylhet 4.08 -0.25 0.2 Lakshmipur 1.86 0.52 -3.8 Tangail 3.97 2.71 1.3 Lalmonirhat 5.85 2.11 -2.7 Thakurgaon 3.82 1.76 2.1 BANGLADESH 3.88 2.09 -1.2 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 15: District Level Growth in Service Sector GDP: late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%) in Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%) in Late 1990s

(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 4.1 6.7 5.5 Madaripur 2.9 6.1 4.5 Bandarban 4.1 7.4 3.8 Magura 4.3 6.9 5.6 Barguna 4.1 5.5 5.3 Manikganj 2.8 5.9 4.9 Barisal 3.3 6.3 4.9 Maulvibazar 3.4 6.5 5.2 Bhola 3.6 5.9 5.1 Meherpur 4.2 6.9 5.5 Bogra 4.5 7.0 5.8 Munshiganj 2.6 6.2 4.6 Brahamanbaria 3.3 6.7 5.3 Mymensingh 3.9 6.0 4.6 Chandpur 3.7 6.0 4.8 Naogaon 4.2 7.1 6.0 Chittagong 3.3 7.8 4.6 Narail 3.5 6.8 4.8 Chuadanga 3.9 7.5 4.7 Narayanganj 2.9 8.4 4.3 Comilla 3.1 6.4 5.3 Narsingdi 3.3 7.4 5.2 Cox's Bazar 3.9 6.3 5.1 Natore 4.3 7.5 5.9 Dhaka 3.9 8.5 4.5 Nawabganj 4.4 7.3 5.2 Dinajpur 4.0 6.8 5.7 Netrakona 3.6 6.0 4.4 Faridpur 3.3 6.5 5.0 Nilphamari 3.9 6.6 5.4 Feni 3.7 6.5 5.4 Noakhali 3.9 6.2 5.6 Gaibandha 3.7 6.3 5.6 Pabna 3.6 7.4 5.3 Gazipur 3.4 8.5 4.8 Panchagarh 4.5 6.4 6.0 Gopalganj 2.6 5.7 4.3 Patuakhali 3.8 5.7 5.2 Habiganj 3.2 6.1 5.3 Pirojpur 3.1 6.0 4.8 Jamalpur 4.1 6.9 5.5 Rajbari 3.7 6.9 5.1 Jessore 3.5 7.4 5.4 Rajshahi 5.0 7.8 5.1 Jhalokati 3.2 6.3 4.9 Rangamati 3.6 7.3 3.2 Jhenaidaha 3.9 7.4 5.6 Rangpur 4.1 7.2 5.4 Joypurhat 4.2 6.8 6.5 Satkhira 3.8 7.1 5.5 Khagrachhari 4.2 11.7 6.4 Shariatpur 3.4 6.2 5.0 Khulna 3.1 7.3 4.2 Sherpur 3.9 6.7 5.5 Kishoreganj 3.1 6.2 6.3 Sirajganj 3.7 7.0 7.3 Kurigram 4.7 6.8 5.2 Sunamganj 2.7 6.4 5.4 Kushtia 3.9 7.1 5.1 Sylhet 3.2 6.6 5.0 Lakshmipur 3.5 6.3 4.3 Tangail 3.5 6.9 5.7 Lalmonirhat 4.3 6.6 5.3 Thakurgaon 4.2 6.6 2.2 BANGLADESH 3.7 7.2 5.0 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 16: District Level Growth in Industrial GDP: late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of



(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 4.69 7.16 5.44 Madaripur 5.20 7.12 5.41 Bandarban 4.60 7.33 5.35 Magura 4.90 7.35 5.47 Barguna 4.71 7.05 5.42 Manikganj 4.62 7.35 5.25 Barisal 4.77 7.20 5.31 Maulvibazar 4.92 7.28 5.35 Bhola 4.74 7.05 5.40 Meherpur 5.08 7.52 5.59 Bogra 5.35 7.15 5.47 Munshiganj 4.42 7.46 5.17 Brahamanbaria 1.11 7.12 4.03 Mymensingh 5.34 7.08 5.45 Chandpur 5.16 7.34 5.60 Naogaon 5.59 6.98 5.51 Chittagong 4.72 7.65 5.33 Narail 4.91 7.17 5.39 Chuadanga 4.86 7.34 5.36 Narayanganj 3.46 7.83 4.88 Comilla 0.65 6.92 3.53 Narsingdi 3.71 7.63 4.88 Cox's Bazar 2.19 7.20 5.06 Natore 5.26 7.32 5.44 Dhaka 4.39 7.74 5.00 Nawabganj 5.28 7.04 5.45 Dinajpur 5.26 7.21 5.45 Netrakona 5.19 7.06 5.46 Faridpur 5.00 7.33 5.49 Nilphamari 5.41 6.99 5.50 Feni 1.72 7.60 4.80 Noakhali 4.91 7.28 5.52 Gaibandha 5.44 7.00 5.45 Pabna 4.16 7.64 5.12 Gazipur 3.98 7.78 4.96 Panchagarh 5.30 7.06 5.48 Gopalganj 4.94 7.42 5.56 Patuakhali 4.70 6.93 5.32 Habiganj 1.17 7.39 5.43 Pirojpur 4.88 7.10 5.42 Jamalpur 5.19 7.15 5.37 Rajbari 4.76 7.40 5.40 Jessore 4.78 7.50 5.32 Rajshahi 4.89 7.40 5.40 Jhalokati 4.86 7.02 5.32 Rangamati -30.33 7.05 -2.74 Jhenaidaha 4.73 7.42 5.39 Rangpur 5.43 7.12 5.45 Joypurhat 5.14 7.19 5.43 Satkhira 4.69 7.21 5.37 Khagrachhari 5.40 6.89 5.38 Shariatpur 5.09 7.20 5.44 Khulna 4.24 7.56 5.16 Sherpur 5.16 7.23 5.52 Kishoreganj 5.05 7.25 5.48 Sirajganj 3.49 8.23 5.56 Kurigram 5.42 6.98 5.45 Sunamganj 4.83 7.26 5.32 Kushtia 4.34 7.56 5.23 Sylhet 9.09 7.59 8.31 Lakshmipur 5.44 7.05 5.51 Tangail 4.63 7.24 5.23 Lalmonirhat 5.45 7.05 5.57 Thakurgaon 5.43 7.11 5.54 BANGLADESH 4.19 7.51 5.16 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 17: District Level Growth in Crop GDP: late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of



(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s

(2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 4.2 10.8 2.3 Madaripur 3.8 3.4 -0.8 Bandarban 1.4 -3.2 -13.6 Magura 2.8 5.6 0.8 Barguna -1.0 -2.0 -1.5 Manikganj 4.3 0.3 -0.1 Barisal 0.4 1.3 -0.5 Maulvibazar 3.7 1.3 -3.0 Bhola 0.6 1.3 -0.3 Meherpur 3.7 1.6 -4.6 Bogra 3.9 3.8 3.9 Munshiganj 4.5 0.3 -0.8 Brahamanbaria 1.2 0.2 1.4 Mymensingh 4.9 -2.6 -2.5 Chandpur 1.3 0.2 1.4 Naogaon 4.6 4.4 2.9 Chittagong 2.2 0.4 0.0 Narail 2.8 5.6 -1.9 Chuadanga 3.8 1.6 -4.4 Narayanganj 4.0 0.3 -1.6 Comilla 1.8 0.2 1.3 Narsingdi 3.8 0.3 -1.0 Cox's Bazar 2.2 0.4 -0.7 Natore 4.8 4.4 2.3 Dhaka 4.9 0.3 -0.5 Nawabganj 5.0 4.4 2.2 Dinajpur 3.4 1.7 2.8 Netrakona 3.1 -2.6 -4.4 Faridpur 4.2 3.4 -1.6 Nilphamari 4.2 2.6 1.4 Feni 3.3 -1.7 0.0 Noakhali 3.4 -1.7 -0.9 Gaibandha 4.8 2.6 1.1 Pabna 4.4 3.3 2.8 Gazipur 3.9 0.3 -1.5 Panchagarh 4.1 1.7 2.9 Gopalganj 3.3 3.4 -1.8 Patuakhali -0.1 -2.0 -0.9 Habiganj 3.4 1.3 1.9 Pirojpur 1.0 1.3 -0.6 Jamalpur 5.1 3.6 1.3 Rajbari 5.7 3.4 -2.5 Jessore 3.1 5.6 0.5 Rajshahi 5.3 4.4 2.7 Jhalokati -0.5 1.3 -1.5 Rangamati 1.7 3.3 -16.5 Jhenaidaha 3.2 5.6 1.2 Rangpur 3.7 2.6 1.2 Joypurhat 4.5 3.8 3.9 Satkhira 2.9 10.8 2.8 Khagrachhari 3.7 31.6 9.3 Shariatpur 4.7 3.4 -2.1 Khulna 4.0 10.8 2.1 Sherpur 5.7 3.6 1.2 Kishoreganj 2.8 1.2 12.2 Sirajganj 5.2 3.3 2.7 Kurigram 5.2 2.6 0.4 Sunamganj 4.0 1.3 2.2 Kushtia 2.7 1.6 -6.8 Sylhet 4.6 1.3 1.5 Lakshmipur 2.2 -1.7 -0.9 Tangail 4.3 3.0 1.2 Lalmonirhat 4.6 2.6 0.9 Thakurgaon 3.8 1.7 2.3 BANGLADESH 3.5 2.6 1.0 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 18: District Level Growth in Livestock GDP: late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of



(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat -0.5 3.0 0.4 Madaripur 0.6 3.0 -2.0 Bandarban 0.7 3.0 -2.0 Magura 0.7 3.0 -2.1 Barguna 1.4 3.0 0.9 Manikganj 0.6 3.0 0.3 Barisal 0.9 3.0 0.7 Maulvibazar 0.5 3.0 -3.0 Bhola 2.1 3.0 4.9 Meherpur 0.8 3.0 4.7 Bogra 1.1 3.0 0.6 Munshiganj 0.8 3.0 -4.5 Brahamanbaria 1.5 3.0 -3.3 Mymensingh 0.6 3.0 -0.6 Chandpur 1.8 3.0 0.8 Naogaon 0.2 3.0 2.2 Chittagong 0.4 3.0 4.0 Narail 0.1 3.0 -1.3 Chuadanga 0.9 3.0 4.4 Narayanganj 0.8 3.0 0.6 Comilla 1.7 3.0 2.0 Narsingdi 0.7 3.0 4.4 Cox's Bazar 0.9 3.0 0.7 Natore 0.3 3.0 2.8 Dhaka 0.1 3.0 11.1 Nawabganj -0.1 3.0 1.9 Dinajpur 1.4 3.0 -0.2 Netrakona 0.5 3.0 -3.2 Faridpur 0.5 3.0 -5.5 Nilphamari 0.6 3.0 -3.3 Feni 1.2 3.0 0.9 Noakhali 2.1 3.0 2.5 Gaibandha 0.7 3.0 -1.5 Pabna 0.7 3.0 -0.1 Gazipur 0.4 3.0 8.1 Panchagarh 0.3 3.0 -3.1 Gopalganj 0.9 3.0 -0.9 Patuakhali 1.8 3.0 0.7 Habiganj 1.0 3.0 -3.9 Pirojpur 1.0 3.0 1.1 Jamalpur 0.5 3.0 2.6 Rajbari 0.7 3.0 -0.4 Jessore 1.4 3.0 -1.2 Rajshahi 1.0 3.0 4.9 Jhalokati 1.5 3.0 1.3 Rangamati 0.8 3.0 0.8 Jhenaidaha 0.2 3.0 1.1 Rangpur 0.5 3.0 -1.2 Joypurhat 0.9 3.0 6.1 Satkhira 0.4 3.0 -3.1 Khagrachhari 0.2 3.0 4.5 Shariatpur 1.4 3.0 0.7 Khulna 1.0 3.0 1.6 Sherpur 0.8 3.0 -1.1 Kishoreganj 1.1 3.0 0.2 Sirajganj 0.4 3.0 0.8 Kurigram 0.2 3.0 -0.2 Sunamganj 1.1 3.0 -5.1 Kushtia 0.6 3.0 0.9 Sylhet 0.6 3.0 -3.7 Lakshmipur 1.6 3.0 1.3 Tangail 0.3 3.0 -0.5 Lalmonirhat 0.4 3.0 -3.5 Thakurgaon 0.6 3.0 -2.7 BANGLADESH 0.8 3.0 0.5 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 19: District Level Growth in Fisheries GDP: late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of



(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 7.1 -0.2 1.4 Madaripur 7.4 0.3 -3.0 Bandarban -15.4 -3.4 7.8 Magura 12.7 -0.8 6.0 Barguna 10.0 -1.4 0.9 Manikganj 16.0 -2.1 7.0 Barisal 10.7 -1.5 1.8 Maulvibazar 4.7 -0.8 3.0 Bhola 5.1 -1.6 -1.6 Meherpur 11.0 1.7 14.6 Bogra 9.9 -0.9 -0.3 Munshiganj 10.1 -2.4 -1.8 Brahamanbaria 11.3 5.1 8.6 Mymensingh 3.1 -4.0 -8.0 Chandpur 11.5 -1.9 -4.8 Naogaon 4.0 9.7 6.5 Chittagong 6.3 0.5 3.6 Narail 10.6 -1.3 4.0 Chuadanga 12.7 1.4 12.6 Narayanganj 11.7 -2.6 10.7 Comilla 4.7 1.9 0.6 Narsingdi 15.9 1.5 5.1 Cox's Bazar 6.9 0.5 0.6 Natore -2.2 6.2 3.2 Dhaka 11.3 -2.6 2.0 Nawabganj 3.5 1.7 2.9 Dinajpur 7.3 1.4 5.3 Netrakona 3.9 4.0 -6.2 Faridpur 11.1 -5.5 3.8 Nilphamari 6.2 -2.7 15.6 Feni 6.8 3.5 2.2 Noakhali 8.8 0.2 4.8 Gaibandha -0.8 -4.5 -1.4 Pabna 10.9 0.7 3.2 Gazipur 11.5 2.8 7.2 Panchagarh 9.6 0.5 6.8 Gopalganj 7.7 -2.2 -2.0 Patuakhali 6.1 0.0 1.6 Habiganj 7.1 -0.9 2.0 Pirojpur 6.8 -2.4 -1.5 Jamalpur 3.3 1.9 -0.1 Rajbari 5.6 2.0 -2.4 Jessore 7.6 2.0 3.7 Rajshahi 4.4 1.3 1.7 Jhalokati -1.6 -2.6 4.5 Rangamati 4.9 -1.0 -1.8 Jhenaidaha 5.6 2.0 5.8 Rangpur 6.6 -0.2 3.3 Joypurhat 8.9 -1.1 9.5 Satkhira 8.0 -0.2 -0.5 Khagrachhari n.a. n.a. n.a. Shariatpur 7.3 -1.7 1.8 Khulna 7.0 0.5 2.4 Sherpur 8.7 0.5 -4.5 Kishoreganj 5.8 -0.4 -3.4 Sirajganj 2.2 0.3 7.9 Kurigram 22.9 0.6 -0.4 Sunamganj 10.2 8.6 9.2 Kushtia 9.5 -2.2 3.2 Sylhet 4.6 -5.7 -2.1 Lakshmipur 1.4 2.4 -6.0 Tangail 9.2 -0.1 5.0 Lalmonirhat 20.2 -1.9 -2.0 Thakurgaon 9.8 0.4 6.7 BANGLADESH 6.6 0.1 1.0 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 20: District Level Growth in Forestry GDP: late 1990s (1995/96-1999/00), early 2000s (2000/01 – 2005/06) and Overall (1995/96-2005/06). Districts Annual Compound rate of



(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 4.0 2.6 2.5 Madaripur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Bandarban 4.0 2.6 2.5 Magura 4.0 2.6 2.5 Barguna 4.0 2.6 2.5 Manikganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Barisal 4.0 2.6 2.5 Maulvibazar 4.0 2.6 2.5 Bhola 4.0 2.6 2.5 Meherpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Bogra 4.0 2.6 2.5 Munshiganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Brahamanbaria 4.0 2.6 2.5 Mymensingh 4.0 2.6 2.5 Chandpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Naogaon 4.0 2.6 2.5 Chittagong 4.0 2.6 2.5 Narail 4.0 2.6 2.5 Chuadanga 4.0 2.6 2.5 Narayanganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Comilla 4.0 2.6 2.5 Narsingdi 4.0 2.6 2.5 Cox's Bazar 4.0 2.6 2.5 Natore 4.0 2.6 2.5 Dhaka 4.0 2.6 2.5 Nawabganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Dinajpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Netrakona 4.0 2.6 2.5 Faridpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Nilphamari 4.0 2.6 2.5 Feni 4.0 2.6 2.5 Noakhali 4.0 2.6 2.5 Gaibandha 4.0 2.6 2.5 Pabna 4.0 2.6 2.5 Gazipur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Panchagarh 4.0 2.6 2.5 Gopalganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Patuakhali 4.0 2.6 2.5 Habiganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Pirojpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Jamalpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Rajbari 4.0 2.6 2.5 Jessore 4.0 2.6 2.5 Rajshahi 4.0 2.6 2.5 Jhalokati 4.0 2.6 2.5 Rangamati 4.0 2.6 2.5 Jhenaidaha 4.0 2.6 2.5 Rangpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Joypurhat 4.0 2.6 2.5 Satkhira 4.0 2.6 2.5 Khagrachhari 4.0 2.6 2.5 Shariatpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Khulna 4.0 2.6 2.5 Sherpur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Kishoreganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Sirajganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Kurigram 4.0 2.6 2.5 Sunamganj 4.0 2.6 2.5 Kushtia 4.0 2.6 2.5 Sylhet 4.0 2.6 2.5 Lakshmipur 4.0 2.6 2.5 Tangail 4.0 2.6 2.5 Lalmonirhat 4.0 2.6 2.5 Thakurgaon 4.0 2.6 2.5 BANGLADESH 4.0 2.6 2.5 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Determinants of Growth In the above analysis, we have shown that there is variation among districts in terms of growth in

agriculture and total GDP. What factors explain varied level of growth among districts? To know

this, multiple regression analysis was carried out. Results indicate that level of agricultural

growth and share of non-farm household in the district have significant contribution to the

overall growth of the district (Table 21). This reconfirms the myth that overall growth of the

economy of Bangladesh depends to a large extent on the performance of its agriculture sector.

An implication of this finding is that agricultural growth is the necessary pre-condition for

overall growth. On the other hand, agricultural growth depends on the growth rates of its sub-

sectors. Growth rates in service sector of the district also have positive and significant effect on

the level of agricultural growth. We wanted to know the impact of human capital on the level of

agricultural growth. In this case, available data was on Human Poverty Index (HPI) in the base

year (1995). We found that HPI has significant negative impact on agricultural growth indicating

that districts with high human poverty (in other words low human capital) achieved lower level

of agricultural growth.


Table 21: Determinants of district level GDP growth and Agricultural Growth during 1995/96-2005/06. Variables/Statistics Equation GDP growth Agriculture Growth

1 2 3 1 2 3 4 Constant 2.641

(0.566) 3.316

(0.697) 4.230

(0.899) 7.253

(2.407) 4.686

(2.044) 6.487

(2.467) 3.776

(4.496)

HPI 1995 0.008 (0.014)

-0.002 (0.014)

-0.017 (0.017)

-0.108 (0.045)

-0.080** (0.399)

-0.077* (0.041)

-0.183** (0.072)

Per Capita GDP (1995-96) -0.001

(0.001)

Share of Farm Holding As % of Total Holding (1996)

-0.036

(0.026) -0.023 (0.21)

-0.049* (0.027)

-0.083** (0.040)

Share of Non-Farm Holding as % of Total Holding (1996)

0.020* (0.008)

0.011 (0.009)

0.016* (0.009)

Holding With No Land as % of Total Holdings

-0.015 (0.013)

-0.011 (0.013)

-0.007 (0.013)

0.008 (0.040)

0.016 (0.033)

0.015 (0.037)

0.006 (0.068)

Agriculture Growth Rate

0.407*** (0.799)

0.427*** (0.025)

0.435*** (0.025)

Crop GDP 0.547 (0.048)

0.568*** (0.040)

0.559*** (0.043)

Animal GDP 0.111** (0.049)

Fishing GDP 0.147*** (0.031)

0.168*** (0.034)

Industry GDP 0.363 (0.282)

Service GDP 1.488*** (0.399)

Road Density 0.664 (0.024)

0.545 (0.804)

0.390 (0.798)

Road (Dummy) -0.676 (0.453)

-0.173 (0.383)

-0.381 (0.402)

-0.962 (0.718)

Low Flood Prone 0.184 (0.333)

0.110 (0.331) -0.359

(0.834)

Flood Prone 0.095 (0.298)

-0.059 (0.310) -0.468

(0.670)

Drought Prone -0.276 (0.303)

-0.463 (0.321) -0.195

(0.725)

Tidal Surge -0.176 (0.301)

-0.339 (0.314) 0.645

(0.745)

Mixed -0.088 (0.369)

-0.200 (0.370) 0.021

(1.033)

Adjusted R2 0.851 0.855 0.732 0.819 0.807 0.333 F-Value 35.22*** 33.19*** 35.32*** 41.67*** 24.96*** 6.236*** Note: Three stars (***), two stars (**) and one star (*) indicate significant at 1, 5 and 10 percent respectively


III. INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND INCOME INEQUALITY: TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS III.1 Per Capita Income

Share of income from agriculture to the total income has declined over time but share of business

and commerce and professional wages and salary has increased (Table 22). In rural areas also

share of income from agriculture declined and share of non-farm income sources has increased

over time.

Table 22: Percentage share of income of households by sources of income Residence/ survey year

Total Agriculture Business and

commerce

Professional wages and

salary

Housing services

Gift and remittance

others

National 2005 100.0 20.0 23.1 31.3 6.7 9.8 8.7 2000 100.0 18.0 25.9 29.4 7.8 10.9 8.0 1995-96 100.0 26.3 20.3 30.3 6.8 9.1 7.2 1991-92 100.0 33.4 14.8 24.3 9.4 10.3 7.8

Rural 2005 100.0 28.7 17.3 28.1 5.1 12.0 8.7 2000 100.0 25.5 22.4 27.7 5.0 11.0 8.4 1995-96 100.0 35.4 14.7 27.7 6.5 9.6 6.1 1991-92 100.0 40.1 12.4 21.1 9.1 10.6 6.7

Urban 2005 100.0 5.8 33.1 36.9 9.5 5.9 8.7 2000 100.0 3.7 32.4 32.6 13.1 10.6 7.5 1995-96 100.0 4.8 33.4 36.6 7.4 7.9 9.9 1991-92 100.0 5.9 24.7 37.9 11.0 9.1 11.4

Source: Report of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005. Per capita income has increased in all districts except two districts (Bandarban and Rangamati)

where per capita income has decreased in 2005/06 against that of 1995/96 (Table 23). High

increase (more than 50%) was observed in Kishoregonj and low increase (up to 20%) was

observed in six districts (Netrakona, Lakshmipur, Mymensingh, Thakurgaon, Chuadanga,

Khagrachhari) and medium increase (20% to 50%) was observed in all other districts.

During 1995/96 to 2005/06, annual compound rate of growth in per capita income was high

(>5% annual compound rate of growth) in Kishoreganj (Table 24). Moderate growth (3-5%

annual compound rate of growth) was observed in 17 districts (Bagerhat, Brahamanbaria, Bogra,

Dinajpur, Feni, Jamalpur, Joypurhat, Khagrachhari, Naogaon, Natore, Pabna, Panchagarh,


Rajshahi, Sirajganj, Sunamganj, Sylhet and Tangail). Negative growth was observed in two

districts (Bandarban and Rangamati). All other districts experienced slow growth (up to 3%

annual compound rate of growth) in per capita income.

Per capita growth in agricultural income during 1995/96 to 2005/06 is reported in Table 24. Per

capita agricultural income had high growth (>5% annual compound rate of growth) in two

districts (Khagrachhari, Kishoreganj), moderate growth (3-5% annual compound rate of growth)

in one district (Joypurhat), slow growth (up to 3% annual compound rate of growth) in 27

districts (Magura, Feni, Jhalokati, Nilphamari, Comilla, Chittagong, Jamalpur, Habiganj,

Tangail, Noakhali, Jhenaidaha, Narayanganj, Thakurgaon, Nawabganj, Gazipur, Khulna,

Bagerhat, Rajshahi, Panchagarh, Sunamganj, Pabna, Dinajpur, Natore, Sirajganj, Bogra,

Brahamanbaria, Naogaon). During this period, 30 districts (Mymensingh, Lakshmipur,

Chuadanga, Rajbari, Maulvibazar, Meherpur, Faridpur, Gopalganj, Munshiganj, Madaripur,

Chandpur, Shariatpur, Narail, Bhola, Cox's Bazar, Lalmonirhat, Sylhet, Barguna, Pirojpur,

Patuakhali, Kurigram, Sherpur, Jessore, Gaibandha, Rangpur, Narsingdi, Manikganj, Barisal,

Satkhira, Dhaka) negative growth (>0 to -3% annual compound rate of growth), four districts

(Rangamati, Bandarban, Netrakona, Kushtia) experienced extremely negative (>-3% annual

compound rate of growth).

Determinants of Income

An analysis of determinants of income revealed that per capita income of a district in 2005/06

was significantly and positively dependant on the base year per capita income (in 1995/96), GDP

growth rate (Table 26). In other words, higher the level of initial income, higher the level of

current per capita income and higher the GDP growth, higher the per capita income in the

district. Proportion of landless household had a significant negative effect on per capita income

level. This is quite obvious due to the fact that districts with large number of families (with most

production income generating asses, land) had lower level of per capita income. One implication

of these findings is that to raise the average income level of this negative and particularly for the

landless community. Government must take actions so that less endowed people can have greater

access to new productive assets such as solar dryer, power tiller, power pump, harvester,

thresher, etc.


Table 23: Trends in Per Capita Income in Bangladesh, by District: 1995/96- 2005/06. Districts 1995/96 1999/00 2005/06 % change

in 2005/06,

compared to

1995/96


2005/06, compared

to 1995/96

Bagerhat 302 353 439 45.3 Madaripur 227 262 291 28.5 Bandarban 332 339 312 -5.7 Magura 280 312 372 32.8 Barguna 311 346 388 24.7 Manikganj 265 297 346 30.7 Barisal 263 299 358 36.1 Maulvibazar 255 280 314 23.4 Bhola 287 314 350 21.7 Meherpur 290 318 359 24.0 Bogra 258 294 363 41.0 Munshiganj 251 278 323 28.7 Brahamanbaria 283 304 384 36.0 Mymensingh 277 305 301 8.7 Chandpur 228 262 288 26.4 Naogaon 269 305 385 43.3 Chittagong 482 520 657 36.4 Narail 291 326 361 24.2 Chuadanga 283 305 336 18.6 Narayanganj 533 553 711 33.3 Comilla 252 266 319 26.6 Narsingdi 322 353 442 37.2 Cox's Bazar 338 366 417 23.5 Natore 294 335 418 42.3 Dhaka 754 758 961 27.6 Nawabganj 231 255 305 31.6 Dinajpur 280 311 383 36.6 Netrakona 279 303 286 2.5 Faridpur 245 269 307 25.4 Nilphamari 235 261 311 32.5 Feni 237 262 318 34.6 Noakhali 243 274 325 33.9 Gaibandha 229 259 306 33.5 Pabna 319 358 455 42.6 Gazipur 594 625 808 36.2 Panchagarh 249 277 337 35.5 Gopalganj 246 272 300 21.8 Patuakhali 323 347 393 21.5 Habiganj 280 299 371 32.2 Pirojpur 258 289 333 29.2 Jamalpur 245 277 336 37.2 Rajbari 249 279 308 24.0 Jessore 327 357 437 33.6 Rajshahi 301 339 411 36.3 Jhalokati 253 275 330 30.5 Rangamati 539 365 319 -40.8 Jhenaidaha 290 317 390 34.7 Rangpur 265 293 353 33.5 Joypurhat 284 323 423 49.0 Satkhira 277 309 384 39.0 Khagrachhari 236 239 284 20.0 Shariatpur 225 252 281 24.7 Khulna 416 456 559 34.5 Sherpur 242 277 326 34.7 Kishoreganj 253 278 414 63.9 Sirajganj 258 279 386 49.7 Kurigram 236 282 319 35.1 Sunamganj 238 262 324 36.0 Kushtia 293 320 360 22.9 Sylhet 274 315 378 38.0 Lakshmipur 287 310 311 8.4 Tangail 242 274 336 38.6 Lalmonirhat 230 265 299 30.0 Thakurgaon 299 329 347 16.1 BANGLADESH 323 355 431 33.1 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 24: District Level Growth in Per Capita Income, by source: 1995/96- 2005/06. Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%) in Districts Annual Compound rate of growth

(%) in Late

1990s (1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s (2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Late 1990s

(1995/96- 1999/00)

Early 2000s

(2000/01- 2005/06)

Overall (1995/96-2005/06)

Bagerhat 4.0 4.9 3.2 Madaripur 3.0 4.2 2.1 Bandarban 0.7 4.4 -1.1 Magura 2.8 4.6 2.5 Barguna 3.0 1.9 2.0 Manikganj 2.7 3.4 2.7 Barisal 3.1 3.7 2.9 Maulvibazar 2.3 3.9 1.8 Bhola 2.0 2.7 1.7 Meherpur 2.4 4.4 1.9 Bogra 3.5 4.5 3.6 Munshiganj 2.7 4.2 2.5 Brahamanbaria 1.8 4.4 3.3 Mymensingh 2.8 2.7 0.9 Chandpur 3.9 3.2 2.1 Naogaon 3.3 4.8 3.7 Chittagong 2.0 5.7 3.0 Narail 3.0 4.6 1.7 Chuadanga 1.9 4.7 1.4 Narayanganj 1.0 6.4 2.7 Comilla 1.4 3.7 2.6 Narsingdi 2.2 5.2 3.0 Cox's Bazar 2.0 3.4 1.8 Natore 3.3 5.1 3.6 Dhaka 0.1 6.7 2.0 Nawabganj 2.6 4.8 2.7 Dinajpur 2.6 3.8 3.3 Netrakona 2.3 3.0 0.1 Faridpur 2.4 4.1 2.1 Nilphamari 2.7 3.9 2.8 Feni 2.7 3.9 3.1 Noakhali 3.1 3.1 3.0 Gaibandha 3.1 3.7 2.9 Pabna 3.0 5.2 3.5 Gazipur 1.4 6.3 2.9 Panchagarh 2.9 3.4 3.2 Gopalganj 2.6 3.8 1.8 Patuakhali 1.9 2.1 1.9 Habiganj 1.6 3.8 3.0 Pirojpur 3.0 3.4 2.5 Jamalpur 3.1 4.7 3.1 Rajbari 3.0 4.7 1.9 Jessore 2.3 5.3 2.7 Rajshahi 3.0 5.4 3.1 Jhalokati 2.1 3.5 3.0 Rangamati -7.5 4.7 -3.8 Jhenaidaha 2.3 5.2 2.9 Rangpur 2.6 4.6 2.8 Joypurhat 3.4 4.0 4.5 Satkhira 2.8 5.5 2.6 Khagrachhari 0.3 14.1 5.0 Shariatpur 2.9 3.9 2.0 Khulna 2.3 5.5 2.6 Sherpur 3.6 4.4 2.7 Kishoreganj 2.5 2.9 5.6 Sirajganj 2.1 5.2 4.4 Kurigram 4.6 4.1 2.5 Sunamganj 2.3 4.0 3.1 Kushtia 2.4 4.8 1.7 Sylhet 3.3 4.0 3.3 Lakshmipur 2.0 3.3 0.8 Tangail 3.0 4.6 3.3 Lalmonirhat 3.7 3.9 2.2 Thakurgaon 2.5 3.5 1.1 BANGLADESH 2.4 4.8 2.8 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 25: District Level Growth in Per Capita Agricultural Income: 1995/96- 2005/06.

Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%) in Districts Annual Compound rate of growth (%) in Crop Live

stock Fish eries

For estry

Agri culture

Crop Live stock

Fish eries

For estry

Agri culture

Bagerhat 1.3 -0.5 0.4 1.5 0.9 Madaripur -1.8 -3.0 -3.9 1.5 -2.2 Bandarban -15.4 -3.8 6.0 0.6 -9.8 Magura -0.5 -3.4 4.7 1.2 0.0 Barguna -2.5 -0.1 -0.2 1.4 -1.2 Manikganj -1.2 -0.9 5.8 1.3 -0.3 Barisal -1.4 -0.2 0.9 1.5 -0.3 Maulvibazar -4.3 -4.3 1.6 1.1 -2.9 Bhola -1.6 3.5 -3.0 1.1 -1.5 Meherpur -6.1 3.2 13.0 0.9 -2.8 Bogra 2.7 -0.6 -1.5 1.2 1.7 Munshiganj -1.9 -5.6 -2.8 1.4 -2.2 Brahamanbaria 0.3 -4.3 7.5 1.4 1.8 Mymensingh -3.7 -1.9 -9.2 1.2 -4.7 Chandpur 0.3 -0.2 -5.8 1.4 -2.0 Naogaon 1.8 1.0 5.4 1.3 2.2 Chittagong -1.5 2.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 Narail -2.8 -2.2 3.1 1.5 -1.8 Chuadanga -6.1 2.7 10.9 0.7 -3.0 Narayanganj -3.4 -1.2 8.9 0.7 0.6 Comilla 0.1 0.8 -0.6 1.3 0.1 Narsingdi -2.4 3.1 3.7 1.1 -0.3 Cox's Bazar -2.3 -0.9 -1.0 0.8 -1.4 Natore 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.4 Dhaka -3.2 8.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 Nawabganj 0.7 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 Dinajpur 1.4 -1.6 3.9 1.1 1.4 Netrakona -5.7 -4.5 -7.5 1.1 -5.3 Faridpur -3.0 -6.9 2.4 1.1 -2.3 Nilphamari 0.1 -4.6 14.2 1.1 0.1 Feni -1.1 -0.1 1.2 1.4 0.0 Noakhali -2.2 1.2 3.5 1.2 0.3 Gaibandha 0.0 -2.5 -2.5 1.4 -0.5 Pabna 1.6 -1.2 2 1.3 1.3 Gazipur -3.3 6.3 5.4 0.6 0.8 Panchagarh 1.5 -4.5 5.4 1.0 1.2 Gopalganj -2.8 -2 -3.1 1.4 -2.3 Patuakhali -2.2 -0.6 0.2 1.1 -1.0 Habiganj 0.7 -5.2 0.8 1.2 0.2 Pirojpur -1.5 0.3 -2.3 1.6 -1.1 Jamalpur 0.0 1.4 -1.4 1.2 0.2 Rajbari -3.8 -1.7 -3.7 1.1 -3.0 Jessore -0.9 -2.6 2.3 1.0 -0.5 Rajshahi 1.1 3.3 0.2 0.9 1.2 Jhalokati -2.3 0.4 3.7 1.6 0 Rangamati -18.3 -1.0 -3.6 0.6 -10.1 Jhenaidaha -0.1 -0.2 4.5 1.1 0.4 Rangpur -0.2 -2.6 2.0 1.1 -0.3 Joypurhat 2.8 4.9 8.4 1.3 3.6 Satkhira 1.5 -4.5 -1.9 1.1 -0.2 Khagrachhari 6.7 1.9 n.a. -0.1 6 Shariatpur -3.3 -0.6 0.5 1.2 -1.9 Khulna 0.7 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 Sherpur 0.0 -2.3 -5.7 1.3 -0.7 Kishoreganj 11.0 -1.0 -4.5 1.3 6.5 Sirajganj 1.3 -0.6 6.4 1.0 1.6 Kurigram -0.7 -1.2 -1.4 1.4 -0.8 Sunamganj 0.9 -6.5 7.9 1.1 1.3 Kushtia -8.2 -0.5 1.9 1.1 -5.2 Sylhet 0.1 -5.1 -3.5 1.1 -1.2 Lakshmipur -2.1 0.1 -7.2 1.3 -3.8 Tangail 0.1 -1.5 3.9 1.4 0.2 Lalmonirhat -0.4 -4.8 -3.3 1.1 -1.3 Thakurgaon 0.8 -4.2 5.2 0.9 0.6 BANGLADESH -0.4 -0.9 -0.4 1.1 -0.3 Source: Author’s calculation, based on data collected from BBS.


Table 26: Determinant of Income Equation Variables/Statistics Income equation

1 2 Constant -68.674

(38.402) -75.188 (50.173)

HPI 1995 -0.342 (0.857)

-0.459 (0.983)

Per Capita GDP (1995-96) 1.161*** (0.036)

1.175*** (0.042)

GDP Growth Rate 36.225*** (2.484)

35.407*** (2.601)

Holding With No Land as % of Total Holdings -1.867** (0.713)

-1.883** (0.760)

Road (Dummy) 2.160 (7.732)

2.994 (8.103)

Low Flood Prone 7.732 (16.271)

Flood Prone 15.240 (14.060)

Drought Prone 12.925 (15.717)

Tidal Surge 2.601 (16.206)

Mixed 9.079 (19.501)

Adjusted R2 0.961 0.959 F-Value 309.67*** 150.18*** Note: Three stars (***), two stars (**) and one star (*) indicate significant at 1, 5 and 10 percent respectively III.2 Income Inequality Income inequality situation deteriorated during 1995 and 2005 (Table 27). Income inequality,

measured through Gini coefficient, has increased from 0.432 in 1995/96 to 0.451 in 2000 and

then increased further to 0.467 in 2005. In case of income of rural households, income inequality

has increased from 0.385 in 1995/96 to 0.393 in 2000 and 0.428 in 2005. On the other hand,

income inequality has increased from 0.444 in 1995/96 to 0.497 in 2000 and then stagnated.

Share of bottom 20% income group increased from 5.71 percent in 1995/96 to 6.17 percent in

2000 and then declined to 5.26 percent in 2005. Share of bottom 20 percent rural population to

total income has increased from 6.49 percent in 1995/96 to 7.11 percent in 2000 and then

declined to 5.88 percent in 2005. In case of bottom 20 percent urban population, their share on

total income has decreased from 5.12 percent in 1995/96 to 5.09 percent in 2000 and then to 4.82

in 2005.


Table 27: Percentage share of income of households by decile group and Gini Co-efficient

Household income group

1995-96 2000 2005

Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban National 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Lower 5% 0.88 1.00 0.74 0.93 1.07 0.79 0.77 0.88 0.67 Decile-1 2.24 2.56 1.92 2.41 2.80 2.02 2.00 2.25 1.80 Decile-2 3.47 3.93 3.20 3.76 4.31 3.07 3.26 3.63 3.02 Decile-3 4.46 4.97 4.06 4.57 5.25 3.84 4.10 4.54 3.87 Decile-4 5.37 5.97 4.98 5.22 5.95 4.68 5.00 5.42 4.61 Decile-5 6.35 6.98 5.97 6.10 6.48 5.60 5.96 6.43 5.66 Decile-6 7.53 8.16 7.20 7.09 7.88 6.74 7.17 7.63 6.78 Decile-7 9.15 9.75 8.98 8.45 9.09 8.24 8.73 9.27 8.53 Decile-8 11.35 11.87 11.35 10.39 10.97 10.46 11.06 11.49 10.18 Decile-9 15.40 15.58 16.29 14.00 14.09 14.04 15.07 15.43 14.48 Decile-10 34.68 30.23 36.05 38.01 32.81 41.32 37.64 33.92 41.08 Top 5% 23.62 19.73 24.30 28.34 23.52 31.32 29.93 23.03 30.37 Income Gini Co-efficient

0.432 0.385 0.444 0.451 0.393 0.497 0.467 0.428 0.497

Source: Report of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005. Measuring income inequality among different regions is important. In this study, inequality in

per capita income and their sources were measured through the decomposition of the Gini Index

as proposed by Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985) by income sources. It is based on the covariance

formula of the Gini Index. Assuming an income distribution and m different income sources (e.g.

agricultural income, income from service, income from industry, etc.), Gini Index may be written

as equation (1):

(1) ∑=

==m

kk yFyCov

yyFyCov

yG

1))(,(2))(,(2

Using equation 1, the Gini coefficients were calculated by using the covariance between the

income sources (agriculture, industry and service) and the cumulative distribution function of

total income. Thus, inequality in per capita income was decomposed by income sources.


Inequality in per capita income sources (agriculture, industry, service) across different districts

was also measured through the Theil Index, as in equation (2). In particular, for m income

sources, the following formula applies:

(2) ∑ ∑= =

=

m

k

n

i

iki

yy

yy

nT

1 1ln1

Where T is Theil Index, k

iy is the contribution of the income source k. and y, y is the average

level of income. Summing all contributions to inequality by m income sources gives the total

Theil Index.

Following Goesling (2001), we have also estimated income inequality between- and within-

district components of income inequality in Bangladesh using the Theil index. For this purpose,

equation (3) and (5) was used. In these equations, j is an index of the districts of Bangladesh, pj

is the jth district’s share of Bangladesh’s total population (i.e., pj = population j / Bangladesh

total, so ? jpj =1), yj is the jth districts share of Bangladesh’s (GDP) income (? yj =1), and ln

refers to the natural logarithm. For the Theil index: (3) ∑∑ +=

j jjjjj j TypyyTheil )/ln(

Where Tj is the value of the Theil index applied to the within-district income distribution of

district j. The first term on the right hand side of the equation is the between-district component.

The second term, a weighted average of the income inequality in district’s income distributions,

is the within-district component.

Equation (3) shows how the decomposition of Bangladesh’s total income inequality into additive

between- and within-district components is similar to a classic analysis of variance problem,

where the total variance in some outcome variable is divided into the sum of weighted between-

and within components. Here it is total inequality (not a variance) divided into between- and

within group components, with districts as groups.


Values for the Theil index applied to district level income distributions (i.e., the values for T in

equation 3) can be computed using estimates of shares of different sources of income such as

agriculture, industry, service): (4) )3ln(∑=

q qjqjj yyT

where q is an index of share of three income sources (agriculture, industry, service) (q = 1,2,3)

within each district, j, and y, is the qth sources share of the jth districts total income. Substituting

equation (4) into equation (3) estimates the two additive components of Bangladesh’s income

inequality may directly be measured from the shares of the income sources: (5) ∑ ∑ ∑+=

j j q qjqjjjjj yyypyyTheil )3ln()/ln( In equation (5), the first term on the right-hand side is the between-district component, and the

second term is the within-district component, a weighted average (weights are income shares) of

income inequality within individual districts.

Decomposition of per capita income inequality among districts of Bangladesh in presented in

Table 28 and Figure 1. Total inequality among districts was declining between 1995/96 and

1999/00. After that it started to increase. Contribution of per capita agricultural income

inequality to the total income inequality should a general decline until 1999/00 and rising since

then. Inequality arising from industrial income also registered


Table 28: Decomposition of Per Capita Income Inequality among Districts of Bangladesh:

1995/96-2005/06.

Year Agriculture Industry Service Total Gini Index 1995-96 0.010 0.062 0.057 0.130 1996-97 0.008 0.055 0.056 0.120 1997-98 0.013 0.058 0.048 0.119 1998-99 0.008 0.053 0.054 0.115 1999-00 0.008 0.051 0.054 0.113 2000-01 0.014 0.055 0.046 0.115 2001-02 0.013 0.058 0.048 0.119 2002-03 0.012 0.059 0.051 0.121 2003-04 0.008 0.060 0.052 0.120 2004-05 0.018 0.059 0.055 0.132 2005-06 0.012 0.064 0.056 0.132 Source: Own estimate.

Trends in Income inequality among different districts of Bangladesh: 1995/96-2005/06

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06Year

Gin

i Rat

io

Agriculture Industry Service

Source: Own estimate.

Figure1.


Estimates of the between and within district components of income inequality in Bangladesh

during 1995/96 and 2005/06 is reported in Table 29. Estimates of the Theil Index revealed that

inequality in per capita income among districts was declining until 2001/02 and started to

increase again since 2001/02. About one third of the total inequality in per capita income may be

attributed to the between district component, but two thirds of the income inequality depends on

the within district income inequality. Implication of this finding is that reduction of per capita

income inequality across districts will depend to a large extent on the programme undertaken to

reduce income inequality with in the district. We all know that northern districts have more

unequal distribution of productive assets such as land than in other districts of Bangladesh.

Therefore, reduction in per capita income among northern districts and other districts of

Bangladesh would require allocation for development projects so that less fortunate can

effectively take advantage of those. The issue of access to new productive assets are also

important to this end.

Table 29: Estimate of the between and within district components of income inequality in

Bangladesh: 1995/96-2005/06. District Between-

District Inequality

Within District Inequality

Total inequality % of total inequality attributable to the between

district component Theil Index 1995-96 0.071 0.137 0.208 34 1996-97 0.069 0.134 0.203 34 1997-98 0.070 0.133 0.203 35 1998-99 0.063 0.132 0.195 32 1999-00 0.060 0.132 0.193 31 2000-01 0.054 0.132 0.187 29 2001-02 0.058 0.137 0.195 30 2002-03 0.062 0.145 0.207 30 2003-04 0.064 0.148 0.212 30 2004-05 0.070 0.152 0.222 31 2005-06 0.075 0.154 0.229 33 Source: Own estimate.


0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

0.500

0.550

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Figure 2. Ratio of between-district to with-in district income inequality: 1995/96-2005/06. Figure 2 shows that there is a shift in source of inequality in Bangladesh. Prior to 2000/01,

between-district component was here important but after that within-district component has

received greater importance.


IV. POVERTY SITUATION A conventional way to measure poverty is to establish a poverty line, defined as the threshold

level of income needed to satisfy basic minimum food and non-food requirements, and determine

the number of households (people) below that line as a percent of the total households

(population). This Head-count Index (HCI) is a measure of the incidence of poverty. This

measure is easily understood by general public and hence is popular with policy makers and

development practitioners. The limitation of the measure is that it is insensitive to changes in the

level and distribution of income among the poor. The other measures of poverty commonly used

to take into account the distribution issue are (a) the Poverty Gap Index and (b) the Squared

Poverty Gap Index. The Poverty Gap Index measures the average (of both poor and non-poor

households) of the percent of income gap of the poor households from the poverty line, and is

used as a measure of intensity of poverty. It measures the percent of total income needed to be

transferred from the non-poor to poor households to lift the poor above the poverty line.

However, if the society is averse to inequality in the distribution of income among the poor, the

poverty measure must be sensitive to income transfers from the moderate to the extreme poor. It

means that higher priority must be given to the improvement in the economic conditions of the

extreme poor compared to the moderate poor. The Squared Poverty Gap Index satisfies this

condition, and is used as a measure of the severity of poverty. For this study we measured and

mapped the Head-count Index and the Squared Poverty Gap Index.

Poverty situation at the national and regional level is reported in Table 30 to Table 33. Incidence

of poverty (as per upper poverty line) has declined from 56.6 percent in 1991-92 to 40.0 percent

in 2005. On the other hand poverty incidence (using lower poverty line) has reduced from 41.0

percent in 1991-92 to 25.1 percent in 2005. In 2005, highest incidence of poverty (according to

Head Count Ratio) was in the Barisal Division (52.0%) followed by Rajshahi Division (51.2%)

and Khulna Division (45.7%). On the other hand, Dhaka Division recorded the lowest level of

poverty incidence followed by Sylhet Division (33.8%) and Chittagong Division (34.0%).

Poverty Gap (using lower poverty line) in 2005 was 4.6%, which recorded a reduction of 2.9%

point over the 2000. Poverty Gap (using upper poverty line) in 2005 was 9.0%, which recorded a

reduction of 3.8% point over the 2000. Chittagong division recorded the lowest poverty gap

(2.2%) in 2005, compared to 5.7% in 2000.


Table 30: Head Count Rate (CBN) of incidence of poverty Residence Upper poverty line Lower poverty line 2005 2000 1995-96 1991-92 2005 2000 1995-96 1991-92 National 40.0 48.9 50.1 56.6 25.1 34.3 35.1 41.0 Rural 43.8 52.3 54.5 58.7 28.6 37.9 39.4 43.7 Urban 28.4 35.2 27.8 42.7 14.6 20.0 13.7 23.6 Source: Report of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005 Table 31: Incidence of poverty (head count rate) by cost of basic needs method and by division Poverty line and division 2005 2000 1995-96 National Rural Urban National Rural Urban National Rural Urban 1. Using the Lower Poverty Line

National 25.1 28.6 14.6 34.3 37.9 20.0 35.6 39.8 14.3 Barisal 35.6 37.2 26.4 34.7 35.9 21.7 43.9 44.8 28.9 Chittagong 16.1 18.7 8.1 27.5 30.1 17.1 32.4 35.3 12.1 Dhaka 19.9 26.1 9.6 34.5 43.6 15.8 33.0 41.5 10.8 Khulna 31.6 32.7 27.8 32.3 34.0 23.0 32.2 33.2 25.8 Rajshahi 34.5 35.6 28.4 42.7 43.9 34.5 41.6 44.4 19.2 Sylhet 20.8 22.3 11.0 26.7 26.1 35.2

2. Using the Upper Poverty Line National 40.0 43.8 28.4 48.9 52.3 35.2 53.1 56.7 35.0

Barisal 52.0 54.1 40.4 53.1 55.1 32.0 59.9 60.6 47.7 Chittagong 34.0 36.0 27.8 45.7 46.3 44.2 44.9 47.2 29.2 Dhaka 32.0 39.0 20.2 46.7 55.9 28.2 52.0 58.9 33.6 Khulna 45.7 46.5 43.2 45.1 46.4 38.5 51.7 51.5 53.3 Rajshahi 51.2 52.3 45.2 56.7 58.5 44.5 62.2 65.7 33.9 Sylhet 33.8 36.1 18.6 42.4 41.9 49.6

Source: Report of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005


Table 32: Poverty gap and squared poverty gap by cost of basic needs method (in percent)

Poverty line and division Poverty gap Squared poverty gap National Rural Urban National Rural Urban

2005 1. Using the Lower Poverty Line

National 4.6 5.3 2.6 1.3 1.5 0.7 Barisal 9.1 9.6 6.4 3.3 3.4 2.6 Chittagong 2.2 2.7 9.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 Dhaka 3.6 4.9 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.3 Khulna 6.2 6.3 5.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 Rajshahi 6.4 6.5 5.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 Sylhet 3.4 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.5

2. Using the Upper Poverty Line National 9.0 9.8 6.5 2.9 3.1 2.1

Barisal 15.5 16.3 10.7 6.3 6.6 4.3 Chittagong 6.3 6.5 5.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 Dhaka 6.9 8.6 4.0 2.1 2.7 1.1 Khulna 10.8 10.4 12.3 3.5 3.2 4.6 Rajshahi 11.9 12.0 11.4 3.8 3.8 3.9 Sylhet 7.2 7.6 4.5 2.1 2.2 1.5

2000 1. Using the Lower Poverty Line

National 7.5 8.3 4.1 2.4 2.6 1.2 Barisal 6.9 7.0 4.9 1.9 2.0 1.6 Chittagong 5.7 6.3 3.6 1.7 1.9 1.1 Dhaka 8.1 10.5 3.0 2.6 3.5 0.8 Khulna 5.6 5.7 4.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 Rajshahi 10.2 10.5 7.8 3.5 3.6 2.7 Sylhet 4.4 4.4 4.5 1.1 1.1 1.2


Barisal 13.7 14.2 8.3 4.7 4.9 3.1 Chittagong 11.3 11.3 11.4 3.9 3.9 4.2 Dhaka 12.9 12.9 6.6 4.7 6.0 2.2 Khulna 1.0 10.0 10.3 3.0 2.9 3.7 Rajshahi 16.2 16.2 13.6 6.2 6.3 5.4 Sylhet 9.2 9.2 12.5 2.8 2.7 4.1

1995-96 1. Using the Lower Poverty Line

National 7.9 8.9 2.7 2.6 2.9 0.8 Barisal 10.2 10.4 7.6 3.4 3.4 2.6 Chittagong 6.1 6.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 0.4 Dhaka 8.0 10.2 2.0 2.8 3.6 0.5 Khulna 6.5 6.5 6.2 2.0 1.9 2.2 Rajshahi 9.8 10.6 3.7 3.4 3.7 1.0


Barisal 18.0 18.1 16.7 7.1 7.1 7.7 Chittagong 10.5 11.2 5.9 3.4 3.6 1.7 Dhaka 14.9 17.1 8.9 5.8 6.7 3.4 Khulna 12.4 11.7 16.6 4.3 3.9 7.0 Rajshahi 17.9 19.1 8.5 7.0 7.6 2.9

Source: Report of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005


An analysis of poverty incidence, measured through Head Count Ratio, in different regions (old

districts) revealed that poverty has increased in 11 regions (Bogra, Dhaka, Jamalpur, Jessore,

Khulna, Noakhali, Pabna, Patuakhali, Rajshahi, Rangamati, Tangail) and decreased in nine

regions (Barisal, Chittagong, Comilla, Dinajpur, Faridpur, Kushtia, Mymensingh, Rangpur,

Sylhet) between 2005 and 1995/96 (Table 33).

Table 33: Poverty incidence (Head Count Ratio) in Different Regions (Old Districts) in Bangladesh: 1995-2005. Regions (Old districts)

1995 1999 2005 Poverty incidence in 2005, compared to 1995

Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Barisal 0.648 0.617 0.654 0.500 0.445 0.510 0.440 Decreased Bogra 0.324 0.164 0.339 0.459 0.443 0.460 0.432 Increased Chittagong 0.367 0.468 0.293 0.418 0.397 0.434 0.315 Decreased Comilla 0.546 0.479 0.555 0.431 0.301 0.449 0.285 Decreased Dhaka 0.211 0.152 0.300 0.433 0.433 0.434 0.214 Increased Dinajpur 0.623 0.650 0.620 0.390 0.455 0.382 0.533 Decreased Faridpur 0.601 0.524 0.611 0.526 0.508 0.528 0.402 Decreased Jamalpur 0.603 0.789 0.564 0.499 0.503 0.498 0.626 Increased Jessore 0.417 0.216 0.450 0.425 0.362 0.435 0.511 Increased Khulna 0.409 0.469 0.386 0.421 0.496 0.392 0.551 Increased Kishoreganj n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.393 0.396 0.392 0.300 Kushtia 0.399 0.554 0.372 0.348 0.436 0.333 0.245 Decreased Mymensingh 0.613 0.547 0.622 0.549 0.450 0.563 0.479 Decreased Noakhali 0.176 0.183 0.175 0.461 0.361 0.475 0.351 Increased Pabna 0.474 0.897 0.396 0.468 0.464 0.469 0.533 Increased Patuakhali 0.531 0.185 0.563 0.406 0.522 0.395 0.692 Increased Rajshahi 0.411 0.625 0.359 0.417 0.439 0.412 0.446 Increased Rangpur 0.708 0.670 0.713 0.519 0.517 0.519 0.574 Decreased Sylhet 0.526 0.484 0.532 0.400 0.354 0.406 0.338 Decreased Tangail 0.294 0.353 0.285 0.465 0.576 0.449 0.372 Increased Chittagong H.T. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.437 0.484 0.415 n.a. Bandarban n.a. n.a. 0.090 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.607 Khagrachhari n.a. n.a. 0.498 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.332 Rangamati 0.314 0.441 0.248 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.503 Increased Note: n.a. Indicates data not available. Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.


Association between GDP growth, agricultural growth and poverty reduction during 1995/96 and

2005/06 is reported in Table 34 and 35. From this, one can not conclude any strong relationship

between growth and poverty reduction.

Table 34: Association between Agricultural GDP Growth and Changes in Poverty Situation

(Change in 2005, Compared to 1995)

Agriculture GDP Growth Type Changes in Poverty (Head-Count Ratio) in 2005/06, compared to

1995/96 Increase Decrease High Growth (>5% annual compound rate of growth)

Moderate Growth (3-5% annual compound rate of growth)

Bogra

Slow Growth (up to 3% annual compound rate of growth)

Noakhali, Patuakhali, Jessore, Tangail, Dhaka, Jamalpur, Khulna, Pabna, Rajshahi

Barisal, Chittagong, Comilla, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Sylhet

Negative Growth (>0 to -3% annual compound rate of growth)

Faridpur, Mymensingh, Kushtia

Extremely Negative (>-3% annual compound rate of growth)

Rangamati

Table 35: Association between GDP Growth and Changes in Poverty Situation (Change in 2005, Compared to 1995) GDP Growth Type Changes in Poverty (Head-Count Ratio) in 2005/06, compared to 1995/96 Increase Decrease High Growth (>5% annual compound rate of growth)

Pabna

Moderate Growth (3-5% annual compound rate of growth)

Patuakhali, Noakhali, Jessore, Khulna, Jamalpur, Tangail, Dhaka, Rajshahi, Bogra

Barisal, Chittagong, Comilla, Dinajpur, Faridpur, Kushtia, Rangpur, Sylhet,

Slow Growth (up to 3% annual compound rate of growth)

Mymensingh

Negative Growth (>0 to -3% annual compound rate of growth)

Rangamati

Extremely Negative (>-3% annual compound rate of growth)


It is well recognised that human poverty has long-term and intergenerational impact on

inequality. Human Poverty Index (HPI) for all the 64 districts constructed by Sen and Hulme

(2006) for 1995 and 2000 is reported in Table 36. Human Poverty in all the districts was reduced

between 1995 and 2000. There was variation in terms of decrease human poverty. High level of

annual decrease in human poverty (more than 3%) was observed in seven districts (Bandarban,

Barguna, Comilla, Thakurgaon, Nilphamari, Pirojpur and Rangamati).

Table 36: Human Poverty Index. DISTRICTS HPI 1995 HPI 2000 Annual

Change DISTRICTS HPI

1995 HPI 2000

Annual Change

Bagerhat 32.58 29.72 -1.76 Madaripur 38.59 34.64 -2.05 Bandarban 51.60 39.77 -4.59 Magura 36.34 33.04 -1.81 Barguna 33.79 28.43 -3.17 Manikganj 38.93 35.44 -1.79 Barisal 31.80 29.03 -1.74 Maulvibazar 37.77 32.69 -2.69 Bhola 37.48 36.32 -0.62 Meherpur 36.91 36.01 -0.49 Bogra 37.72 32.75 -2.64 Munshiganj 29.68 29.07 -0.41 Brahamanbaria 39.26 37.65 -0.82 Mymensingh 40.30 34.70 -2.78 Chandpur 33.28 29.76 -2.11 Naogaon 36.91 32.32 -2.48 Chittagong 32.29 29.21 -1.91 Narail 32.41 31.26 -0.71 Chuadanga 34.02 32.11 -1.12 Narayanganj 31.58 28.45 -1.98 Comilla 31.88 26.72 -3.24 Narsingdi 37.93 35.25 -1.42 Cox's Bazar 38.68 38.44 -0.13 Natore 36.02 34.42 -0.89 Dhaka 26.87 26.51 -0.27 Nawabganj 41.68 39.66 -0.97 Dinajpur 36.24 33.31 -1.62 Netrakona 39.04 37.06 -1.01 Faridpur 35.26 34.59 -0.38 Nilphamari 46.86 38.50 -3.57 Feni 30.83 28.15 -1.74 Noakhali 36.33 33.05 -1.80 Gaibandha 39.95 35.08 -2.44 Pabna 40.36 36.11 -2.11 Gazipur 34.93 32.49 -1.40 Panchagarh 38.71 35.03 -1.90 Gopalganj 32.51 29.77 -1.69 Patuakhali 35.76 30.56 -2.91 Habiganj 37.23 34.45 -1.49 Pirojpur 31.16 25.82 -3.42 Jamalpur 51.06 41.87 -3.60 Rajbari 43.75 38.03 -2.61 Jessore 30.77 28.20 -1.67 Rajshahi 35.98 33.57 -1.34 Jhalokati 31.54 25.40 -3.89 Rangamati 46.24 35.74 -4.54 Jhenaidaha 35.74 32.37 -1.89 Rangpur 41.70 38.26 -1.65 Joypurhat 37.23 35.70 -0.82 Satkhira 35.53 31.74 -2.13 Khagrachhari 43.86 37.58 -2.87 Shariatpur 42.28 36.76 -2.61 Khulna 32.51 27.95 -2.81 Sherpur 45.15 42.98 -0.96 Kishoreganj 39.35 35.59 -1.91 Sirajganj 42.59 38.83 -1.77 Kurigram 43.14 39.42 -1.73 Sunamganj 43.01 39.44 -1.66 Kushtia 36.79 35.78 -0.55 Sylhet 39.11 35.08 -2.06 Lakshmipur 34.80 32.39 -1.39 Tangail 39.33 32.48 -3.48 Lalmonirhat 40.67 35.63 -2.48 Thakurgaon 40.32 35.87 -2.21 BANGLADESH Source: Sen and Hulme (2006).

Growth trend of poverty in bangladesh

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