Growth of Regional Aircraft in Africa · Demand for larger next generation regional aircraft in...

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Growth of Regional Aircraft in Africa Presented By: Frédéric Morais Manager, Marketing & Airline Analysis International Bombardier Commercial Aircraft 40 th AFRAA Annual General Assembly 24-25 November 2008

Transcript of Growth of Regional Aircraft in Africa · Demand for larger next generation regional aircraft in...

Page 1: Growth of Regional Aircraft in Africa · Demand for larger next generation regional aircraft in Africa is continuing with numerous new aircraft orders in the last years Bombardier

Growth of Regional Aircraft

in Africa

Presented By: Frédéric Morais

Manager, Marketing & Airline Analysis – International

Bombardier Commercial Aircraft

40th AFRAA Annual General Assembly

24-25 November 2008

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All amounts are expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of

forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe” or “continue” or the

negatives of these terms or variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require

Bombardier Inc. (the “Corporation”) to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and

uncertainties, which may cause the Corporation’s actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results.

While the Corporation considers its assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on current information available, there

is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking

statements made in this presentation, please refer to the respective Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) sections

of the Corporation’s aerospace segment and the Corporation’s transportation segment in the Corporation’s annual report for

fiscal year 2008.

Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements

include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with the Corporation’s business environment (such

as the financial condition of the airline industry), operational risks (such as risks associated with doing business with partners,

risks involved in developing new products and services, product performance warranty, casualty claim losses, risks from

regulatory and legal proceedings, environmental risks, risks relating to the Corporation’s dependence on certain key customers

and key suppliers, human resource risks and risks resulting from fixed-term commitments), financing risks (such as risks

resulting from reliance on government support, risks relating to financing support provided on behalf of certain customers, risks

relating to liquidity and access to capital markets, risks relating to the terms of certain restrictive debt covenants) and market

risks (including foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rate and commodity pricing risk). For more details, see the Risks

and Uncertainties section of the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for fiscal year 2008. Readers are cautioned that the

foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not

be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect the Corporation’s expectations

as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities

laws, the Corporation expressly disclaims any intention, and assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking

statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Forward Looking Statements

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The outlook for the African air transport market continues to improve

due to positive commodity prices, growing tourism, and a more

moderate political climate

Four of the world‟s top 20 oil-producing nations are in Africa

(Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria)

150% growth in tourism, 120% growth in trade in last 15 years

In 2003-2007, Africa averaged year-over-year GDP growth of 5.2%

Surpassed only by China and India

GDP growth expected to exceed global average for the next 20 years

The African Market Overview

A growing market with huge future potential

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World China India Africa Middle

East

Latin

America

North

America

Asia

Pacific

(ex. China)

Europe

African GDP growth is expected to

exceed the global average

Source: Global Insight

The African Market Projected GDP Growth Rates, 2007-2027

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Market liberalization and regulatory reforms are continuing

More privately owned airlines and low-cost carriers in operation

Government-owned flag carrier privatizations and airline consolidation

is under consideration

Drive to implement African open-sky continues

Intra-African routes are a largely untapped market with high potential

Intra-African market currently less than 20% of continental market

(versus more than 50% for North America)

Air travel is an excellent alternative to ground transportation over vast

distances and difficult terrain with poor road and rail infrastructure

The African Market Opportunities

Significant opportunities exist in the African market

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Requirements of the African Market Low Fuel Consumption

Large

Turboprop

Old

70 Seat Jet

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Assumptions: Airfield Temperature = ISA+20C

En-route Temperature = ISA+10C

85% Annual Winds

Long Range Cruise

Reserve Fuel for 100nm Diversion +

30 min Hold @ 1500 ft + 5 % Flight Fuel

Modern Large Turboprop

1,011 nm (1,872 km)

Addis Ababa

(7,656 ft)

Older Generation Turboprop

170 nm (315 km)

Requirements of the African Market Exceptional Hot & High Performance

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Requirements of the African Market Large Baggage and Cargo Capacity

← Regional Jet Baggage Compartment

Large Turboprop Baggage Compartment →

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Requirements of the African Market Unpaved Runway Capability

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Source: ACAS Database

(November 2008)

63% of the current

active passenger

fleet is older than

15 years

Seat

Segment

Number of

Aircraft

Average Age

(Years)

20-59 285 20.6

60-99 104 18.5

100-149 253 18.2

The African Market Current Aircraft Age Profile by Seat Segment

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Projected Demand by Seat Segment Africa & Middle East, 2008 –2027

Significant demand in African market

for large regional aircraft (turboprops

and jets) and small single-aisle

mainline aircraft in the next 20 years 3%

97% of projected demand

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2008-2027

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As of October 2008

South African Express

Tassili Airlines (Algeria)

Arik Air (Nigeria)

The Demand for Large Turboprops Has Already Begun

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Africa‟s Newest Large Turboprop Operator

"The 360 knot speed, low operating costs and environmental credentials of the Q400 NextGen aircraft

will enable us to maintain the high standards for which we have received numerous awards. The aircraft's

excellent range and payload capability will allow us to deploy it on routes within Ethiopia, as well

as on regional routes up to 1,000 nm from Addis Ababa. Another key reason for our selection of the Q400

airliner is its exceptional performance in terms of climb rate, single-engine ceiling and

higher take-off weight, and thus greater payload, from hot and high elevation airfields."

- Girma Wake

CEO, Ethiopian Airlines

20 November 2008

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Example of Large Turboprop Application South African Express

Bloemfontein

Lubumbashi

Johannesburg

George

Johannesburg to George

Medium distance high-density domestic trunk route

Large turboprop against low-cost carrier operating Boeing 737s

Comparable schedules, fares and load factors…but much lower cost

Johannesburg to Bloemfontien

Short domestic route not otherwise served by competitors

Johannesburg to Lubumbashi

Long-distance regional flight versus competitor operating Boeing 727s

Large turboprop flies 7 flights per week versus 3 for competitor

Higher weekly seat count (511 vs. 447) with superior schedule frequency

favored by customers Source: Sabre PlaNET (October 2008)

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South African Express Air Service Gabon

Sevenair (Tunisia) Arik Air (Nigeria) Libyan Airlines

As of October 2008

Regional Jet Operators in Africa

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50 Seat Regional Jets Low-Risk Solution for New Intra-African Markets

Assumptions: Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,

OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.

Assumptions: Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,

OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.

Assumptions: Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,

OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.

Assumptions:

Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,

OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.

50 Seat Regional Jets

Large Regional Jets

(Up to 100 Seats) Single-Aisle Mainline Jets

(Up to 145 Seats)

Initial Market

Entry

Large Turboprops

(Up to 80 Seats)

Typical Range* of

50 Seat Regional Jets

* Inner circle represents maximum passenger range (1,590 nm with 50 pax).

Outer circle represents maximum fuel range (2,360 nm with 33 pax).

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CSERIES. LAUNCH. July 2008

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Latest CFD

Technology

Game Changing

PW1000G PurePowerTM Engine Composite

Technology Wing Superior Field Performance

& Range Flexibility

Best in Class Cabin Comfort

and Flexibility

Advanced

Flight Deck

& FBW Control

Al-Li / CFRP

Fuselage

CSERIES • The Future Wings of Africa

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CSeries 110 ER – 110 Pax

2,774 nm (5,137 km)

CSeries 130 ER – 130 Pax 2,782 nm (5,152 km)

Performance Assumptions:

• Passenger with Bags @ 225 lb (102 kg) each

• Single-Class Cabin Configuration

• 100 nm (185 km) Alternate

• 45 min Holding @ 15,000 ft

• 5% Flight Fuel Contingency

• 2.5% Margin on OWE for Airline Customization

• Airport ISA+15ºC, Zero Wind

• En Route ISA, 85% Annual Wind

• Cruise M0.78

CSERIES • Range from Ouagadougou (OUA)

New opportunities for intra-

African, European and

Mediterranean air links

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2008 Year at Glance

Q400 NextGen

Launch

CRJ1000

First Flight

CSERIES

Program Launch

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CRJ, CRJ700, CRJ900, CRJ1000, CSeries, NextGen and

Q400 are trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.

Single-Aisle Mainline Jets

CSeries 130

Large Turboprops

Q400 NextGen

Regional Jets

CRJ700 NextGen CRJ900 NextGen CRJ1000 NextGen

CSeries 110

A Complete Portfolio The Right Aircraft for Each African Market

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The African market offers growth opportunities from

continuing GDP growth, future market liberalization and

untapped intra-African routes

Demand for larger next generation regional aircraft in Africa

is continuing with numerous new aircraft orders in the last

years

Bombardier offers next generation regional aircraft and is

currently redefining the lower-end of the single-aisle segment

with the CSeries

Conclusion

Modern high performance, low cost aircraft for Africa

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Thank You!

Questions?

Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Continuous Innovation for Africa and the World

Combination of outstanding performance (hot & high) with low seat-mile costs for short-haul operations

Regional Jets

Ideal for developing longer thin intra-African markets

Large Turboprops

Opportunity for untapped intra-African & intl.

markets that cannot be served profitably today

Single-Aisle Mainline Jets

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Information contained in this document is proprietary

to Bombardier Inc., Bombardier Aerospace,

(“Bombardier”). This document must not be

reproduced or shared with, or distributed to, any third

party in whole or in part without Bombardier‟s prior

written consent.

This document is submitted for informational purposes

only; is not part of any proposal; and creates no

contractual commitment. Bombardier provides the

information contained in this document on an „as is,

where is‟ basis and makes no representation or

warranty of any kind regarding the applicability or

reliability of any of such information with respect to

any use whatsoever to be made of it by the recipient.

Any information of a technical nature contained in this

document may contain inaccuracies and is subject to

change and should never be relied upon for

operational use.