Growth of Regional Aircraft in Africa · Demand for larger next generation regional aircraft in...
Transcript of Growth of Regional Aircraft in Africa · Demand for larger next generation regional aircraft in...
Growth of Regional Aircraft
in Africa
Presented By: Frédéric Morais
Manager, Marketing & Airline Analysis – International
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft
40th AFRAA Annual General Assembly
24-25 November 2008
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All amounts are expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of
forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe” or “continue” or the
negatives of these terms or variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require
Bombardier Inc. (the “Corporation”) to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and
uncertainties, which may cause the Corporation’s actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results.
While the Corporation considers its assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on current information available, there
is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking
statements made in this presentation, please refer to the respective Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) sections
of the Corporation’s aerospace segment and the Corporation’s transportation segment in the Corporation’s annual report for
fiscal year 2008.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements
include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with the Corporation’s business environment (such
as the financial condition of the airline industry), operational risks (such as risks associated with doing business with partners,
risks involved in developing new products and services, product performance warranty, casualty claim losses, risks from
regulatory and legal proceedings, environmental risks, risks relating to the Corporation’s dependence on certain key customers
and key suppliers, human resource risks and risks resulting from fixed-term commitments), financing risks (such as risks
resulting from reliance on government support, risks relating to financing support provided on behalf of certain customers, risks
relating to liquidity and access to capital markets, risks relating to the terms of certain restrictive debt covenants) and market
risks (including foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rate and commodity pricing risk). For more details, see the Risks
and Uncertainties section of the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for fiscal year 2008. Readers are cautioned that the
foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not
be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect the Corporation’s expectations
as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities
laws, the Corporation expressly disclaims any intention, and assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Forward Looking Statements
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The outlook for the African air transport market continues to improve
due to positive commodity prices, growing tourism, and a more
moderate political climate
Four of the world‟s top 20 oil-producing nations are in Africa
(Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria)
150% growth in tourism, 120% growth in trade in last 15 years
In 2003-2007, Africa averaged year-over-year GDP growth of 5.2%
Surpassed only by China and India
GDP growth expected to exceed global average for the next 20 years
The African Market Overview
A growing market with huge future potential
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World China India Africa Middle
East
Latin
America
North
America
Asia
Pacific
(ex. China)
Europe
African GDP growth is expected to
exceed the global average
Source: Global Insight
The African Market Projected GDP Growth Rates, 2007-2027
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Market liberalization and regulatory reforms are continuing
More privately owned airlines and low-cost carriers in operation
Government-owned flag carrier privatizations and airline consolidation
is under consideration
Drive to implement African open-sky continues
Intra-African routes are a largely untapped market with high potential
Intra-African market currently less than 20% of continental market
(versus more than 50% for North America)
Air travel is an excellent alternative to ground transportation over vast
distances and difficult terrain with poor road and rail infrastructure
The African Market Opportunities
Significant opportunities exist in the African market
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Requirements of the African Market Low Fuel Consumption
Large
Turboprop
Old
70 Seat Jet
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Assumptions: Airfield Temperature = ISA+20C
En-route Temperature = ISA+10C
85% Annual Winds
Long Range Cruise
Reserve Fuel for 100nm Diversion +
30 min Hold @ 1500 ft + 5 % Flight Fuel
Modern Large Turboprop
1,011 nm (1,872 km)
Addis Ababa
(7,656 ft)
Older Generation Turboprop
170 nm (315 km)
Requirements of the African Market Exceptional Hot & High Performance
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Requirements of the African Market Large Baggage and Cargo Capacity
← Regional Jet Baggage Compartment
Large Turboprop Baggage Compartment →
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Requirements of the African Market Unpaved Runway Capability
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Source: ACAS Database
(November 2008)
63% of the current
active passenger
fleet is older than
15 years
Seat
Segment
Number of
Aircraft
Average Age
(Years)
20-59 285 20.6
60-99 104 18.5
100-149 253 18.2
The African Market Current Aircraft Age Profile by Seat Segment
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Projected Demand by Seat Segment Africa & Middle East, 2008 –2027
Significant demand in African market
for large regional aircraft (turboprops
and jets) and small single-aisle
mainline aircraft in the next 20 years 3%
97% of projected demand
Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2008-2027
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As of October 2008
South African Express
Tassili Airlines (Algeria)
Arik Air (Nigeria)
The Demand for Large Turboprops Has Already Begun
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Africa‟s Newest Large Turboprop Operator
"The 360 knot speed, low operating costs and environmental credentials of the Q400 NextGen aircraft
will enable us to maintain the high standards for which we have received numerous awards. The aircraft's
excellent range and payload capability will allow us to deploy it on routes within Ethiopia, as well
as on regional routes up to 1,000 nm from Addis Ababa. Another key reason for our selection of the Q400
airliner is its exceptional performance in terms of climb rate, single-engine ceiling and
higher take-off weight, and thus greater payload, from hot and high elevation airfields."
- Girma Wake
CEO, Ethiopian Airlines
20 November 2008
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Example of Large Turboprop Application South African Express
Bloemfontein
Lubumbashi
Johannesburg
George
Johannesburg to George
Medium distance high-density domestic trunk route
Large turboprop against low-cost carrier operating Boeing 737s
Comparable schedules, fares and load factors…but much lower cost
Johannesburg to Bloemfontien
Short domestic route not otherwise served by competitors
Johannesburg to Lubumbashi
Long-distance regional flight versus competitor operating Boeing 727s
Large turboprop flies 7 flights per week versus 3 for competitor
Higher weekly seat count (511 vs. 447) with superior schedule frequency
favored by customers Source: Sabre PlaNET (October 2008)
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South African Express Air Service Gabon
Sevenair (Tunisia) Arik Air (Nigeria) Libyan Airlines
As of October 2008
Regional Jet Operators in Africa
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50 Seat Regional Jets Low-Risk Solution for New Intra-African Markets
Assumptions: Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,
OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.
Assumptions: Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,
OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.
Assumptions: Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,
OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.
Assumptions:
Passengers: 100 kg each, airport temp.: ISA, en route temp.: ISA, Mach 0.78, 85% annual wind, 10 minutes taxi,
OWE: standard + 2% (for allowances). Reserves include: 100 NM diversion + hold 30 min @ 1,500 ft.
50 Seat Regional Jets
Large Regional Jets
(Up to 100 Seats) Single-Aisle Mainline Jets
(Up to 145 Seats)
Initial Market
Entry
Large Turboprops
(Up to 80 Seats)
Typical Range* of
50 Seat Regional Jets
* Inner circle represents maximum passenger range (1,590 nm with 50 pax).
Outer circle represents maximum fuel range (2,360 nm with 33 pax).
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CSERIES. LAUNCH. July 2008
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Latest CFD
Technology
Game Changing
PW1000G PurePowerTM Engine Composite
Technology Wing Superior Field Performance
& Range Flexibility
Best in Class Cabin Comfort
and Flexibility
Advanced
Flight Deck
& FBW Control
Al-Li / CFRP
Fuselage
CSERIES • The Future Wings of Africa
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CSeries 110 ER – 110 Pax
2,774 nm (5,137 km)
CSeries 130 ER – 130 Pax 2,782 nm (5,152 km)
Performance Assumptions:
• Passenger with Bags @ 225 lb (102 kg) each
• Single-Class Cabin Configuration
• 100 nm (185 km) Alternate
• 45 min Holding @ 15,000 ft
• 5% Flight Fuel Contingency
• 2.5% Margin on OWE for Airline Customization
• Airport ISA+15ºC, Zero Wind
• En Route ISA, 85% Annual Wind
• Cruise M0.78
CSERIES • Range from Ouagadougou (OUA)
New opportunities for intra-
African, European and
Mediterranean air links
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2008 Year at Glance
Q400 NextGen
Launch
CRJ1000
First Flight
CSERIES
Program Launch
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CRJ, CRJ700, CRJ900, CRJ1000, CSeries, NextGen and
Q400 are trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
Single-Aisle Mainline Jets
CSeries 130
Large Turboprops
Q400 NextGen
Regional Jets
CRJ700 NextGen CRJ900 NextGen CRJ1000 NextGen
CSeries 110
A Complete Portfolio The Right Aircraft for Each African Market
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The African market offers growth opportunities from
continuing GDP growth, future market liberalization and
untapped intra-African routes
Demand for larger next generation regional aircraft in Africa
is continuing with numerous new aircraft orders in the last
years
Bombardier offers next generation regional aircraft and is
currently redefining the lower-end of the single-aisle segment
with the CSeries
Conclusion
Modern high performance, low cost aircraft for Africa
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Thank You!
Questions?
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Continuous Innovation for Africa and the World
Combination of outstanding performance (hot & high) with low seat-mile costs for short-haul operations
Regional Jets
Ideal for developing longer thin intra-African markets
Large Turboprops
Opportunity for untapped intra-African & intl.
markets that cannot be served profitably today
Single-Aisle Mainline Jets
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Information contained in this document is proprietary
to Bombardier Inc., Bombardier Aerospace,
(“Bombardier”). This document must not be
reproduced or shared with, or distributed to, any third
party in whole or in part without Bombardier‟s prior
written consent.
This document is submitted for informational purposes
only; is not part of any proposal; and creates no
contractual commitment. Bombardier provides the
information contained in this document on an „as is,
where is‟ basis and makes no representation or
warranty of any kind regarding the applicability or
reliability of any of such information with respect to
any use whatsoever to be made of it by the recipient.
Any information of a technical nature contained in this
document may contain inaccuracies and is subject to
change and should never be relied upon for
operational use.