Growth in a World of Accelerated Climate Change
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Back Growth in a world of accelerated climate change: what’s your strategy? by Mara Chiorean [email protected] 27 Aug 2013 Climate change is accelerating. Atmospheric carbon has reached an average daily level in excess of 400 parts per million, bringing carbon to a level not seen for at least 3 million years. Its effects are significant and felt across the world, impacting business growth, health, water and food security. A new climate change report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that was leaked to the media this week says with near certainty that global warming is caused by human activity. It also says that by the end of the century, sea levels could rise by more than three feet. In Central and North Asia, it is projected that together with a stronger warming trend, extreme precipitation events will likely increase. In East Asia, it is likely that there will be more pronounced drought periods in winter. Precipitation increase is likely over the Yangtze River Valley, Korean peninsula and Japan during the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu season in May-July. Precipitation extremes are very likely to increase over most of south-eastern China in all seasons and over Japan in summer. In West and South Asia, the high confidence assessment concluded with virtual certainty that temperatures will increase. ‘Wet gets wetter and dry becomes drier’ over these two contrasting rainfall regions, it is likely that West Asia will receive less precipitation in the April to September half year and South Asia will receive more than at present. In Southeast Asia, it is very likely that the rising temperatures will continue to be manifested in a rising number of hot days and warm nights, and a decline in cooler weather. Rainfall is also likely to increase across the region, but with strong geographical variations. The report, the fifth major assessment from IPCC, is still under review and is scheduled for release in four parts between September 2013 and November 2014. The myriad of climate change related reports that have been published recently have a common theme: the focus on vulnerability and impacts of climate change, the need to move beyond mitigation and start building resilience. Asia stands out as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The World Bank’s second Turn Down the Heat report warns that poor communities will
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Transcript of Growth in a World of Accelerated Climate Change
BackGrowth in a world of accelerated climate change: what’s your strategy?by Mara Chiorean [email protected] 27 Aug 2013
Climate change is accelerating. Atmospheric carbon has reached an average daily level in excess of 400 parts per million, bringing carbon to a level not seen for at least 3 million years. Its effects are significant and felt across the world, impacting business growth, health, water and food security.
A new climate change report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that was leaked to the media this week says with near certainty that global warming is caused by human activity. It also says that by the end of the century, sea levels could rise by more than three feet.
In Central and North Asia, it is projected that together with a stronger warming trend, extreme precipitation events will likely increase.
In East Asia, it is likely that there will be more pronounced drought periods in winter. Precipitation increase is likely over the Yangtze River Valley, Korean peninsula and Japan during the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu season in May-July. Precipitation extremes are very likely to increase over most of south-eastern China in all seasons and over Japan in summer.
In West and South Asia, the high confidence assessment concluded with virtual certainty that temperatures will increase. ‘Wet gets wetter and dry becomes drier’ over these two contrasting rainfall regions, it is likely that West Asia will receive less precipitation in the April to September half year and South Asia will receive more than at present.
In Southeast Asia, it is very likely that the rising temperatures will continue to be manifested in a rising number of hot days and warm nights, and a decline in cooler weather. Rainfall is also likely to increase across the region, but with strong geographical variations.
The report, the fifth major assessment from IPCC, is still under review and is scheduled for release in four parts between September 2013 and November 2014.
The myriad of climate change related reports that have been published recently have a common theme: the focus on vulnerability and impacts of climate change, the need to move beyond mitigation and start building resilience. Asia stands out as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
The World Bank’s second Turn Down the Heat report warns that poor communities will be the most vulnerable to climate change. It describes the risks to agriculture and livelihood security, with climate change threatening farm fields and water resources of South Asia and South East Asia within the next three decades.
Another study, appearing in the journal Nature Climate Change, pinpoints cities around the world that will be most at risk and finds the costs of global flood damage could rise to $1 trillion a year if cities don’t take steps to adapt. Out of the ten most vulnerable cities - when measured as percentage of GDP - seven of them are located in Asia: 1) Guangzhou; 2) New Orleans; 3) Guayaquil, Ecuador; 4) Ho Chi Minh City; 5) Abidjan; 6) Zhanjiang; 7) Mumbai; 8) Khulna, Bangladesh; 9) Palembang, Indonesia; and 10) Shenzhen.
Beyond the potential climate change impacts on the planet, all the more astonishing is a study that recently appeared in the respected journal Science, where three US scientists claim that should there be an increase in average temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2050, armed conflict could increase in some regions by as much as 50 percent. The underlying mechanisms detailed is that shifts in climate could affect the availability of important resources like water or crops, leading to failing economies, weaker governments, and more incentives
to fight or rebel.
Beyond the science providing us with evidence of the inevitable need to build resilience to the change in climate, disasters that affected communities across Asia this summer put those theories in reality.
In Philippines, several cities and provinces were flooded due to Tropical Storm Trami prompting experts at the Asian Development Bank headquartered in Manila to recognise the need for a strong national response to climate change given the countries’ vulnerability. The Philippines is hit by a total of 20 tropical cyclones each year. However, the nearly 24 inches of rainfall during a 12 hour period experienced on August 19 is unprecedented, breaking a number of Manila’s very high record rainfall totals.
The “Himalayan Tsunami” that affected north Indian state of Uttarakhand in June, wiped out the Hindu pilgrimage town Kedarnath and may have killed as many as 6,000 people. According to the Kathmandu-based International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), rising temperatures due to global warming are fast creating thousands of glacial lakes across the region. The growing volume of meltwater is increasing the risk of sudden glacial lake outburst floods.
Many Asian countries are experiencing a fast paced economic growth, with the business sector playing an important role in driving development. With climate change threatening to curve this growth, the private sector is becoming more interested in building resilience both as a risk management approach to protect their own operations and as a way to support local communities to adapt and respond to climate change.
Three articles by Richard Welford published in July and August 2013 in CSR Asia Weekly, describe ways in which the private sector can engage more effectively with the climate change threats and begin to build resilient businesses and communities. (Ice melt could sink Asia: What should business do?; Climate change impacts on health and livelihoods require a private sector response; Climate change threat to Asian supply chains)
A dedicated session at the CSR Asia Summit will look at how climate change resilience can be enhanced for vulnerable communities. It will explore the vulnerability of business to climate change and provide insights into how business can respond to these challenges.
Photo credit: REUTERS/Romeo Ranoco
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