Growing Your Outreach Efforts When Your

Community Shrinks

Rev. Dr. Glenn E. SchaefferOutreach Executive, Alberta-British Columbia

Districthttp://goandmake.ca

Shrinking CitiesFrom 1990-2000:

Shrinking World cities* increased from

1 in 6 to

1 in 4.

* Minimum population of 100,000

Shrinking Rural Communities

Shrinking Rural CommunitiesCanada’s rural population has

remained stable at about 6 million since 1981.

But, with stronger urban growth, these 6 million represent a smaller % of the population

In Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, the overall rural and small town population has declined since 1986. – Source: Stats Canada Dec 2008

Shrinking Congregations

177 195 200 193 187

8886 84 84 83

3939 40 42 41

1514 12 11 131310 10 10 7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 to 200 201 to400 401 to 600 601 to 800 801 and more

Average # of baptized in LCC Congregations

• Between 1987-2007, the average baptized and communicant membership in LCC congregations has shrunk 12%.

The percentage change shown above is an annual rate of change. It is not the difference between the years shown.

1987 1992 1997 2002 20070 to 200 177 195 200 193 187201 to400 88 86 84 84 83401 to 600 39 39 40 42 41601 to 800 15 14 12 11 13801 and more 13 10 10 10 7Total Congregations 332 344 346 340 331

0 to 200 53% 57% 58% 57% 56%201 to400 27% 25% 24% 25% 25%401 to 600 12% 11% 12% 12% 12%601 to 800 5% 4% 3% 3% 4%801 and more 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%Total Congregations 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Average baptized membershipAverage Baptized 263 242 236 237 230

Average Sunday Attendance in LCC Congregations

Between 1987-2007, Sunday worship attendance has shrunk from 92 to 78.

1987 1992 1997 2002 20070 to 50 119 123 132 136 13451 to100 100 117 111 109 111101 to 150 48 50 49 45 40151 to 200 38 34 34 34 25200 and more 27 20 19 17 16Total 332 344 345 341 326

0 to 50 36% 36% 38% 40% 41%51 to100 30% 34% 32% 32% 34%101 to 150 14% 15% 14% 13% 12%151 to 200 11% 10% 10% 10% 8%200 and more 8% 6% 6% 5% 5%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Average worship attendanceAverage 92 84 83 83 78

119 123 132 136 134

100 117 111 109 111

4850 49 45 40

3834 34 34 25

2720 19 17

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cong

rega

tions

0 to 50 51 to100 101 to 150 151 to 200 200 and more

Canadian Trends19% of all Canadians (ages 15 and

older) reported no religious affiliation in 2004 survey

“50% of Canadians aged 15 to 29 and almost 60% of all British Columbians either had no religious affiliation or did not attend any religious services.”

“Who’s religious?” by Warren Clark and Grant Schellenberg in Canadian Social Trends Summer 2006 Statistics Canada pages 2-9.

For Whom the Bell Tolls

“Until the pain to remain the same is greater than the pain to change, things will remain the same.”

All Is Not Lost! Shrinkage presents opportunities for growth and a new or renewed future Oswalt, an expert on “shrinking cities,” asserts

shrinkage is not a negative thing. On the contrary, Oswalt sees the shrunken city [church] as a template for the city [church] of the future, a canvas on which creative minds can develop new and better ways of living.

“There’s real promise in shrinking cities [churches],” says Schwarz. “It drives me crazy when people get all depressed about the decline, because there’s lots of opportunities too.” --- Terry Schwarz of the Urban Design Center of Northeast Ohio

All Is Not Lost! Shrinkage presents opportunities for growth and a new or renewed future

“Everybody’s talking about smart growth, but nobody is talking about smart decline. There’s nothing that says that a city [church] that has fewer people in it has to be a bad place.”

-- Terry Schwarz of the Urban Design Center of Northeast Ohio

Shrinking Smart

Managing Transitions by William Bridges

“All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy; for what we leave behind as part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter into another.” – Antole France, French Writer

“Deep Doo-Doo, Next 750 Miles” – Ziggy cartoon

Canada in TransitionChurch

ed

Pre-Ch

urch

Post-Church

So, What’s Ending???

Pastors are influential

Church influences culture

Church memory

Pastors are irrelevant

Culture influences church or church in conflict w/culture

No Church Memory

“One doesn’t discover new lands without consenting to lose sight of the shore for a very long time.” – Andre Gide, French Novelist

Inward “Club” MemberPastor-focused Church-centric

Outward “Mission Outpost”

Missionary Missionary/

Evangelist Neighbourhood-

focused

Expanding Outreach Exponentially

Expanding Outreach Exponentially

“The first step the city has to come to terms with is being a small city.”

-- Anthony Kobak, chief planner of Youngstown, Ohio

Prayer Walking

Exploration & Discovery of Mission Frontiers in Your Community

Growing Your Outreach Efforts When Your

Community Shrinks

Rev. Dr. Glenn E. SchaefferOutreach Executive, Alberta-British Columbia

Districthttp://goandmake.ca