Growing Enough Food Without Enough Water
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Transcript of Growing Enough Food Without Enough Water
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Growing Enough Food
Without Enough Water
David Molden
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About IWMI
IWMI is one of 15 research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).
Mission: To improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment.
Where we work:Headquarters: Colombo, Sri LankaIn Africa : Ghana, Southern Africa, EthiopiaIn Asia: India, Pakistan, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Central Asia, Syria
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Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
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Other Water Pressures
Population & Diet – food grain production projected to increase by 100% by 2050
Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025, encroach on ag land
Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land
Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water availability
Drivers of Land & Water Use
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Land degradation – limits productivityRiver basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow,
Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left
Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets
Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent
Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production
Limits – Reached or Breached
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Some areas will be wetter, others drier, more rainfall variability, all hotter
Source: Arnell, 2003 – IWMI, FAO, ADB report on revitalizing irrigation.
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Water Scarcity and Climate Change
Some areas wetter, some areas drier
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Will there be enough water?
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One liter of water produces one calorie on average
Food
Sup
ply
in C
alor
ies
One liter of water produces one calorie on average
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USA
projectionsdata
2003
1961 2050
China
India
140
20
120
100
40
60
80
WorldMea
t con
sum
ptio
n kg
/cap
/yr
Per capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr)
More meat and milk requires more feed grain, requiring more water
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More People – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production – need to double grain production by 2050
More water for food – if practices don’t change, double water needs
This equation doesn’t work – something has to change
Will there be enough water?
More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production – need to double grain production by 2050
More water for food – if practices don’t change,
water needs for agriculture will double Something has to change
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SolutionsOlivia Molden
Water Management
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Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands
1. Improve water productivity (more food/water)– Irrigation systems– Rainfed systems
2. Expand irrigated & rainfed agriculture3. Promote trade from highly productive to less
productive regions4. Manage demand, consume and waste less
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Grow more food per unit of water
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Figure 4: Standardised Gross Value of Production per unit water consumed by ETcrop
* surface water and public wells ** private wells
Productivity of Water at 40 Irrigation Systems:
There is ample scope for improvement.
Source: Sakthivadivel et al, 1999
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Range of water productivities in biological, economical and nutritional terms for selected commodities
aIncludes extensive systems without additional nutritional inputs to superintensive systems
Source: Muir, 1993; Verdegem, Bosma, and Vereth 2006; Renault and Wallender 2000; Oweis and Hachum 2003; Zwart and Bastiannsen 2004
Product
Water ProductivityKilograms per cubic meter ET
Dollars per cubic meter ET
Protein grams per m3
ET
Calories per m3 ET
Wheat ($0.2 per kilogram) 0.2-1.2 0.04-0.30 50-150 660-4,000
Rice ($0.31 per kilogram) 0.15-1.6 0.05-0.18 12-50 500-2,000
Maize (0.11 per kilogram) 0.30-2.00 0.03-0.22 30-200 1,000-
7,000
Beef ($3.0 per kilogram) 0.03-0.1 0.09-0.3 10-30 60-210
Fish (aquaculture)a 0.05-1.0 0.07-1.35 17-340 85-1,750
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WP for Livestock and Fish• Beef 0.03 to 0.1 kg/m3 (ET)• Fish 0.05 to 1.0 kg/m3 (ET)Rapid increase in consumption of fish, meat, milk,
with incomeHuge scope for improvement – feed source, and
animal husbandry important
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Reasons for Caution
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Chishtian
Human
usesSurface
Rain
Groundwater miningEnvironmentalcommitments
Otherevaporation
VegetationCity uses
Crops
740km390%
Accounting for Water Use at Chistian, Pakistan
Often problem is overuse, not low efficiencyLow water productivity is the real waste
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Breeding: optimism or caution?• Biophysical limit on biomass/transpiration• Harvest index already maximized – limit on
marketable produce per unit transpiration• Hard to foresee a big jump• except in underutilized, understudied cropsBut helpful in reducing damage from weeds,
insects, minimizing impacts of drought
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Water productivity rises faster at lower yields and levels off at higher yields
Source: Adapted from Zwart and Bastiaanssen 2004In Water for Food, Water for Life, Earthscan Publishing
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Water productivity is subject to diminishing returns
Source: Based on the yield-water productivity relationship for rainfed cereals in Rockström (2003)
In Water for Food, Water for Life, Earthscan Publishing
Area of Greatest Potential
Areas with high poverty
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Opportunities in Rainfed Agriculture• Largest opportunities to build resilience and
improve water productivity are in rainfed landscapes – low productivity, high poverty
• Technology– water harvesting, supplemental irrigation– Field water conservation to reduce
nonproductive evaporation– Improved nutrients – Drought resistance varieties
• Expand “water” to includepolicies and practices forupgrading rainfed systems
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Irrigation potential
developed:
Egypt, Morocco,
Somalia, South Africa > 75%
Botswana, Sudan,
Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi,
Uganda 50-75%
Rest < 50%% Irrigated
LandINDIA:
~50SSA:
5
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Rain = 1745 km3
Rainfed ET – 190 km3
Irrigated ET – 67 km3
Outflow – 10 to 30 km3
Limited options to expand irrigation – but gets attention
Ample options to upgrade agriculture on rainfed lands –gets little attention
A green-blue view
Irrigated
Pastoral
Rainfed
Wetlands
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Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options
Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
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Transforming Agricultural Water Management
We know what to do – we need to know HOW?
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- Use of wells and dug-outs- Small-scale: labour-intensive manual
irrigation - Few commercial farmers : motor pumps- Irrigation during dry season
Crops: Mainly tomato, pepper, local vegetables
Shallow Groundwater Irrigation
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• Millions of pumps in operation in S-Asia
• In India >70% of irrigated production
• High demand in SSA • Spontaneous uptake• Privately owned• Enormous impact on
farmer & landless income
But:• Small pumps are inefficient
(50%)• Still quite expensive sales
price and running• Technical knowledge gap• 6% GHG emission in India• Resource sustainability• No women ownership?
Solutions1. Affordable & efficient pump for
smallholders2. Alternative energy sources
(solar)3. Ban import tax on ag equipment
(cost of pump <$100 in India, $140 in Togo, $300 in Ghana). Zambia recently abolished
4. Extension training
Motorized pumps: extreme demand – extreme opportunity for change
Easy to transport: * individual* scattered plots* rent-out
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Accra Market Queen
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Making it Happen – beyond technologies
• Access to technology, seeds, fertilizers?• Is there enough money
or credit to buy them?• Are markets available to sell?• Financially viable?• Water and land resources available?• Is it sustainable – financial, ecological?• Supportive policies?• “Mind mobilization” Matsepo Khumbane
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Summary – Water, Food & Livelihood Agenda
1. Enhance & safeguard water access for the poor
2. Increase water productivity 3. In doing so enhance ecosystem services &
resilience4. Transform water governance and
management
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Water access, productivity,and ecosystems for livelihoods
1. Upgrade rainfed areas – manage water & soils2. Revitalize irrigation3. Sustainable groundwater management4. Reuse wastewater safely5. Transform water governance and management6. Support with information systems