Growing demand, widening

participation and the skills

agenda

HEA Forward-Look Forum, 31 May

2017

Claire Callender

Professor of Higher Education

UCL, Institute of Education and Birkbeck

c.callender@bbk.ac.uk

Outline

How has demand for Higher

Education changed over time?

What are the key factors impacting

on student demand?

Widening participation

Graduate labour market

Changing Student Demand

3

Growth of Higher Education in

Ireland 1969/70 to 2014/15

4 Source: Derived from Clancy 2015 and HEA various

Growth in HE enrolments by sector,

2006/07 and 2015/16

5

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2006/07 2010/11 2015/16

Universities Institutes of Technology

Source: Derived from HEA various years

Growth in HE enrolments by mode

and level of study, 2007/8 and 2015/16

6 Source: Derived from HEA various years

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Full time Part-time All Full time Part-time All

2007/08 2015/16

Undergraduates Postgraduates

Factors impacting on demand

7

Factors impacting on student

demand

STUDENT DEMAND

Education achieve-

ment

(level 3) Changes in the labour

market

Government policy

HE Institutions’

policy

Demographic change

Young people’s attitudes

Educational attainment

9

National Leaving Certificate Retention

Rate by DEIS Designation 2001 to 2009 (%)

68.2

82.7 85

92

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

DEIS Non-DEIS

Source: Department for Education and Skills, 2015

Socio-economic background of new entrants

to higher education in 2011 (18–20 year olds)

Socio-economic group

General

population aged

17-19

number and %

New entrants,

aged 18-20

number and %

Estimated

participation

rate

Employers and managers 10,531 (19%) 6,617 (23%) 64%

Higher professional 3,222 (6%) 3,842 (13%) 119%

Lower professional 6,790 (12%) 3,229 (11%) 48%

Non-manual workers 13,976 (25%) 3,154 (11%) 23%

Manual skilled workers 7,429 (13%) 3,800 (13%) 51%

Semi-skilled workers 7,531 (13%) 1,840 (6%) 24%

Unskilled workers 3,064 (5%) 751 (3%) 25%

Own account workers 1,963 (3%) 2,860 (10%) 146%

Farmers 1,620 (3%) 2,692 (9%) 166%

Agricultural workers 470 (1%) 280 (1%) 60%

Total 56,596 (100%) 29,164 (100%) 52%

11 Source: National Plan for Equity of Access to Higher Education 2015-2019

Participation in higher education by socio-

economic status and prior academic

attainment, 2009

12

Composition of full-time undergraduate population

by socio-economic group and sector, 2015/16 (%)

13

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Other/unknown

Agricultural Workers

Farmers

Own Account

Unskilled

Semi-skilled

Skilled Manual

Non-Manual

Lower Professional

Higher Professional

Employer and Manager

University IoT/Colleges

Source: Equal Access Survey, 2016

Socio-economic groups and selected

undergraduate subjects, 2013/14

Selected subjects All subjects

Socio-economic group Medicine /

Dentistry Pharmacy

Veterinary

Medicine Law

Teacher

Training

Employers and managers 18% 14% 26% 28% 27% 21%

Higher professional 44% 25% 19% 23% 8% 13%

Lower professional 13% 10% 10% 11% 15% 11%

Non-manual workers 7% 10% 7% 11% 8% 12%

Manual skilled workers 3% 8% 4% 8% 10% 13%

Semi/unskilled and

agricultural workers

4% 6% 6% 8% 9% 13%

Own account workers 5% 11% 1% 6% 9% 9%

Farmers 7% 14% 25% 5% 16% 8%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

14 Source: National Plan for Equity of Access to Higher Education 2015-2019

Summary: The demand for HE in

Ireland and widening participation

• Demand for HE and pace of growth varies considerably by sector,

level and mode of study - there are very different HE ‘markets’

• Demand driven by rising educational attainment in schools.

• Demand will continue

• HE participation varies massively by socio-economic background

and much of this gap can be explained by prior attainment

• Social selectivity complemented by further selectivity by sector,

qualification aim, and field of study.

• Educational expansion and differentiation has both reduced

socio-economic inequality and magnified inequalities.

• Only achieve equality in access to HE when demand amongst the

highest social classes has been saturated, only then - with the

continued expansion of HE - will we see greater equality and

widening participation.

15

Questions

Do these inequalities in HE

access matter?

Is changing them a priority

to?

16

Questions

What are the levers for

change and who pulls

them?

17

Changes in the graduate labour

market

18

Green, F. and G. Henseke (2016). "The Changing

Graduate Labour Market: Analysis Using a New

Indicator of Graduate Jobs". IZA Journal of Labor

Policy, 5:14.

Green, F. and G. Henseke (2017 - forthcoming).

“Graduates and ‘Graduate Jobs’ in Europe: A Picture

of Growth and Diversification’. Discussion Paper,

Centre for Global Higher Education, UCL Institute of

Education (http://www.researchcghe.org/).

19

The high skills supply and

demand race - Optimists

• Focus on what has been happening to the

earnings premiums or returns to HE

associated with achieving a higher education

qualification

• the sustained high earnings premiums reflect

implicit high growth in demand for graduate

skills

• strong contributions to economic growth

20

The high skills supply and

demand race -Pessimists

• Focuses on indicators of the demand for skills

• Questions if modern technology really does require

increasing and higher level skills

• High-skills demand determined more by employer strategies

than the supply of high skills

• IT has encouraged “digital Taylorism”

• Some high-skills demand need not be fulfilled graduates

• Rising underutilisation of graduates’ skills in the workplace –

more graduates working in ‘non-graduate’ jobs

• Stable graduate earnings premiums are no guarantee that

graduates are not underutilising their skills

21

Level of tertiary educational

attainment 2004 & 2015 (30-34

years)

52.3

38.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2004

South Central Nordic Anglo

Source:EU-LFS. Eurostat figures, Green and Henseke, 2017

Gap in tertiary education between

30-34 and 50-64 years olds, 2015

21.2

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

24.0

Source: EU-LFS. Eurostat figures, Green and Henseke, 2017

South Central Nordic Anglo

Patterns of job polarisation,

2004-2015

24

0.393

-0.520

0.120 0.132

-0.301

0.220

-0.116

-0.466

0.573

-0.162

-0.396

0.545

-.5

0.5

Ave

rag

e A

nnu

al C

hang

e (i

n pe

rcen

tage

po

ints

)

South Central Anglo Nordic

Low Med Hi Low Med Hi Low Med Hi Low Med Hi

Population weighted country averages, 2004-2015

Source: EU-LFS, Green and Henseke, 2017

Graduate underemployment

across the OECD, 2011

37.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Fin

land

Pola

nd

Norw

ay

Germ

any

Cypru

s

Italy

Sw

ed

en

Neth

erland

s

Slo

va

kia

Belg

ium

Spain

Fra

nce

Austr

ia

De

nm

ark

Esto

nia

United S

tate

s

United K

ingd

om

Kore

a

Ire

lan

d

Can

ada

Czech

Japan

Source: Adapted from Green and Henseke (2016).

26

3.37

10.36

7.97

1.86

4.06

3.13

-1.85

-4.88

3.62

-3.45

7.27

3.93

1.60

-0.83

0.89

3.93

-50

51

0

Cha

ng

e 2

004

-20

15 (

in p

erc

enta

ge

poin

ts)

South Continent Anglo Nordic

Franc

e

Gre

ece

Italy

Portu

gal

Spain

Austri

a

Belgium

Ger

man

y

Net

herla

nds

Switz

erla

nd

Irela

nd

Unite

d Kin

gdom

Den

mar

k

Finland

Nor

way

Swed

en

Change in the proportion of employed

graduates in medium-skilled or low-skilled

jobs, (25-29 year olds), 2004-2015

Source: Green and Henseke, 2017

Wage differential between tertiary and

(upper-) secondary education, 2003

and 2013

South Central Nordic Anglo

54.8%

47.3%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

100.0%

2013* 2003*

Source: EU-SILC, Green and Henseke, 2017

The change in real gross earnings of

graduates in high-skills employment,

2003-2013

28

-0.2

-7.3

-1.5

-4.6

0.0

1.7

0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9

-0.9

0.9 1.7

3.0

1.5

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Ave

rag

e a

nn

ua

l g

row

th r

ate

Source: Green and Henseke, 2017

Summary: The graduate labour

market in Ireland

• By 2015, Ireland had the highest proportion of tertiary

educated workers in its labour force and this supply

will continue to grow

• Employment in both low skilled and high skilled

occupations has grown, especially high skilled.

• Employment in intermediate skilled jobs - classic

middle class jobs - has shrunk.

• Ireland evolving into an hour glass economy

• Underemployment of graduates is rising

• The graduate earning premium is considerable and is

holding up

29

Questions

Are you an optimist or pessimist

in terms of the future growth in

demand for graduates?

What are the implications of

your decision for the HE sector?

30