16 February 2017

Groundnut Forum

Nico Hawkins General Manager

Groundnuts: Supply & Demand (National vs. International – Marketing season)

Estimate2015/16

Projection2016/17

Mil ton Mil tonOpening stocks 12.2 12.2 2.8 2.3Production 17.2 18.9 40.3 42.2Imports 42.2 55.0 3.2 3.3Total use 53.7 (b) 64.7 (b) 40.4 41.7Exports 7.4 8.8 3.7 3.8Closing stocks 10.4 (a) 12.6 (a) 2.3 2.3(a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures.(b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (SAGIS: 50 017) (Grain SA: 60 200)Sources: SAGIS: 25 Jan '17, USDA: 6 Feb '17, Grain SA: 27 Jan '17

Marketing yearInternational (USDA)

Progr.2016/17

Mar - Dec '16

Projection2016/17

'000t'000t

Grain SASAGISMar - Feb Sep - Aug

Groundnuts: Production & Producer deliveries Crop estimates vs. producer deliveries

2016/17 2015/16 2014/15CEC Production * 17 680 62 300 74 500SAGIS Deliveries ** 17 177 59 992 71 565Difference 503 2 308 2 935* CEC Final Estimate ** SAGIS Progr. Mar - Dec '16

(Progr. 1 Mar – 31 Dec ‘16) Groundnuts: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries

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06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.

16/17Est.

GROUNDNUTS: CEC Est, Ha, Yield vs SAGIS Deliveries

Crop Estimate SAGIS Prod. Del. CEC Ha CEC Yield

YieldTon

Grain SA

Summarised info Groundnuts: Imports & Exports

Groundnuts 2016/17 * 2015/16 2014/15

Imports 42 225 14 604 11 338Exports 7 358 15 426 12 136*Progr. 2016/17: Mar - Dec '16Source: SAGIS

Ton

Groundnuts: Imports for RSA

2016/17 season (Progr. Mar – Dec ‘16)

Argentina26 42162.64%

Brazil4 561

10.81%

China528

1.25%

India2 2445.32%

Japan95

0.23%Malawi

1 7374.12% Mozambique

4 0959.71%

United Arab Emerates623

1.48%United Kingdom

7291.73%

USA858

2.03%Zambia

2640.63%

Unknown21

0.05%

Groundnuts: RSA ImportsMar - Dec '16

Total Imports: 42 176 ton

Groundnuts: Exports for RSA

2016/17 season (Progr. Mar – Dec ‘16)

Belgium685

9.31%

Japan2 712

36.86%

Mosambique2 619

35.59%

Netherlands835

11.35%Norway

250.34%

Swaziland36

0.49%

Zimbabwe410

5.57%

Unknown36

0.49%

Groundnuts: RSA ExportsMar - Dec '16

Total Exports: 7 358 ton

Groundnuts: Consumption

Firms Tons Firms TonsDirect Edible Market 45 22 864 43 27 972Peanut Butter 7 26 447 6 23 794Crushed oil & cake 3 596 3 2 744Pods 7 110 5 607

50 017 55 117* 2016/16: Mar '16 - Dec '16 Source: SAGIS** 2015/16: Mar '15 - Dec '15

2016/17 * 2015/16 **GroundnutsProcessed

Groundnuts: Consumption

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06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.

16/17Est.

GROUNDNUTS: PROCESSED

Edible market Peanut butter Crushed

Ton

Grain SA

(Progr. 1 Mar – 31 Dec ‘16)

USA Groundnut prices Groundnuts: Price movements

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USA Groundnut prices-US Runners 40/50 cif Rotterdam (shelled)-

Source: Oilworld

(Progr. Jan ‘2000 – Jan ’17)

Groundnuts: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices

Argentine USARaw Runners Raw Runners

40/50 40/50Jun 2017 Feb 2017

$/t $/tInternational FOB value 1 555.00 1 565.00 Freight rate 85.00 26.00 Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 4.67 4.70 Cost, Insurance and Freight 1 644.67 1 595.70 R/$ Exchange rate on: 2017/02/07 13.4227 13.4227

Converted to: R/t R/tCost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) 22 075.91 21 418.60 Financing cost 190.52 184.85 Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing 22 266.43 21 603.45 Discharging cost - Durban 579.41 579.41 Import tariff 2 087.23 2 100.65 Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban 24 933.07 24 283.51

2017/02/07

Indicative Export Parity Prices Groundnuts: Price movements

Argentine Raw2017/02/09 Runner 40/50

Jun 2017FOB Gulf value ($/t) 1 555.00 Difference in quality and locality of SA:Groundnuts: Less 3.5% of fob value 96.5%SA fob price ($/t) 1 500.58 Exchange rate (1$=): 2017/02/07 13.4227 FOB Gulf value (R/t) 20 141.84 Marketing costs:Financing (Prime rate 10.50% - 30 days)(R/t) 173.83 Loading costs: (R/t) Durban Harbour (mainly spout method) 467.13 Export realisation (R/t):Randfontein 19 500.88

Groundnuts: SARS: FOB Prices (Shelled) Imports

2014/15 2015/16

Imports Ton 4 780 17 267 39 552

Total value of imports

FOB value(R'000) 43 164.34 266 063.41 605 725.60

Value per ton FOBR/Ton 9 031.05 15 408.39 15 314.75

Source: SARS

Shelled1202.42 Mar - Feb

2016/17Progr.

Mar-Nov

(2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar – 30 Nov ‘16)

Groundnuts: SARS: FOB Prices (Shelled) Imports per country (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar – 30 Nov ‘16)

Imports: Tariff Line 1202.42 Groundnuts - Shelled - whether or not broken

Country Ton FOB valueR'000

FOBRand/ton

Argentina 23 675.452 369 332.67 15 599.81Benin 213.280 2 846.61 13 346.82Brazil 4 435.683 71 174.60 16 045.92China 1 194.736 28 989.85 24 264.65India 873.675 15 447.04 17 680.53Malawi 1 480.012 18 982.52 12 825.92Mozambique 6 071.099 73 964.47 12 183.04Namibia 44.000 420.00 9 545.45Nicaragua 75.003 1 225.85 16 344.01Nigeria 286.099 2 950.37 10 312.41South Africa 315.407 4 979.84 15 788.62United Kingdom 0.001 0.13 130 000.00United States 836.855 12 650.16 15 116.31Viet Nam 16.273 2 213.52 136 024.09Zambia 34.200 547.97 16 022.51TOTAL 39 551.775 605 725.600 15 314.75Progr. Mar - Nov '16Source: SARS

Groundnuts: SARS: FOB Prices (Shelled) Exports

2014/15 2015/16

Exports Ton 12 069 18 447 7 165

Total value of imports

FOB value(R'000) 160 379.27 178 277.97 94 273.92

Value per ton FOBR/Ton 13 288.74 9 664.16 13 157.63

Source: SARS

Shelled1202.42 Mar - Feb

2016/17Progr.

Mar-Nov

(2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar – 30 Nov ‘16)

Groundnuts: SARS: FOB Prices (Shelled) Exports per country (2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar – 30 Nov ‘16)

Exports: Tariff Line 1202.42 Groundnuts - Shelled - whether or not broken

Country Ton FOB value R'000

FOBRand/ton

Belgium 1 138.000 24 850.920 21 837.36Botswana 34.843 204.570 5 871.19Ghana 0.006 0.200 33 333.33Japan 986.143 24 498.230 24 842.47Kenya 2.000 720.820 360 410.00Lesotho 0.284 8.130 28 626.76Malawi 0.044 2.510 57 045.45Mauritius 0.287 7.660 26 689.90Mozambique 3 560.800 31 045.290 8 718.63Namibia 0.278 9.410 33 848.92Netherlands 205.000 4 333.120 21 137.17Saint Helena 0.056 3.640 65 000.00Sweden 56.632 727.900 12 853.16Swaziland 1.198 67.030 55 951.59Tanzania 0.030 1.960 65 333.33United Arab Emirates 0.001 0.060 60 000.00Zambia 1.106 26.860 24 285.71Zimbabwe 1 178.256 7 765.610 6 590.77Total 7 164.964 94 273.920 13 157.63Progr. Mar - Nov '16Source: SARS

Groundnuts: SARS Imports of various products

2014/15 2015/16

Mar - Feb Mar - Feb

Imports Ton 865 1 002 436

Total value of importsFOB Value

(R'000)19 975.05 26 223.22 12 225.70

Value per tonFOB

R/Ton23 088.83R 26 179.19R 28 054.62R

Source: SARS

2016/17Progr.

Mar-Nov

Peanut butter2008.11.10

(2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar – 30 Nov ‘16)

Groundnuts: SARS Imports of various products

2014/15 2015/16

Mar - Feb Mar - Feb

ImportsQuantity

(Ton)1 295 1 842 992

Total value of importsFOB Value

(R'000)27 133.24 36 482.89 31 254.47

Value per tonFOB

R/Ton20 944.79 19 809.27 31 497.89

Source: SARS

Groundnuts Roasted2008.11.20

2016/17Progr.

Mar-Nov

(2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar – 30 Nov ‘16)

Groundnuts: SARS Imports of various products

2014/15 2015/16

Mar - Feb Mar - Feb

ImportsQuantity

(Ton)4 931 364 573

Total value of importsFOB Value

(R'000)74 268.25 9 778.60 16 528.23

Value per tonFOB

R/Ton15 060.71 26 867.75 28 826.31

Source: SARS

Groundnuts Other2008.11.90

2016/17Progr.

Mar-Nov

(2016/17: Progr. 1 Mar – 30 Nov ‘16)

Products: year on year price changes Groundnuts: Price movements

2016 2015 2014Price Price Price

R R RBrick Margarine 500g 21.86 8.00 20.24 15.46 17.53Peanut Butter 400g 27.33 17.20 23.32 1.83 22.90Sunflower Oil 750ml 22.51 8.43 20.76 16.17 17.87Source: SA Statistics

December% Yearon Year

% Yearon Year

Various products Index (Jan ‘08 – Dec ‘16) Groundnuts: Price movements

177.24

255.66

235.31

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Jan-

08

Jun-

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-11

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-12

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12

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13

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-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

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15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX

Sunflower Oil 750 ml

Peanut Butter 400 gr

Margarine Brick 500 gr

%%

Groundnut: Co-workers

Processors33

Harbour grain

handlers6

Traders41

Storers2

Groundnuts: Firms registered

Total firms: 82

Acknowledgement Board of Directors

The Oil and Protein Seeds Dev. Trust & Oilseeds Industry is represented by:

Dr John Purchase Chairperson

Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson

Mr Gerhard Scholtemeijer Mr De Wet Boshoff Ms Marie vd Merwe (Alternate)

The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil all commitments: Groundnut Forum Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff

Acknowledgement Gratitude

Thank you

Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS’

website under Presentations