Gross Domestic Product Developments

GDP Team: Richard Morrison

John Dowens

David Jack

SNAP Team: Andrew Mortimer

Table of Contents

• Updated Chainweights

• Panel Methodology replaced by ratio estimates in production

• Stratification Review in Services

• Routine Review of sources and methods across the board– Including refresh of seasonality models

• Benchmarking of Historic Series

Updated Chainweights

• Reflects new Input-Output tables for Scotland published on 13th October 2010– 1997 – 2004 Weights revised– 2005, 2006 and 2007 weights introduced

• This update is a standard methodological procedure first established in 2004.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

20.17 17.9 17.11 17.09 14.78 15.72 17.91 16.79 10.02 11.92 16.85

Construction 57.77 58.81 59.72 64.13 60.17 63.28 68.04 67.68 67.96 72.12 76.06Services 654.15 656.73 674.47 689.21 710.82 723.8 731.96 735.52 742.31 735.72 736.54

Production 267.92 266.55 248.7 229.57 214.23 197.2 182.09 180.01 179.71 180.24 170.55

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Production

Services

Construction

Agriculture, Forestryand Fishing

New Weights - ConstructionConstruction

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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New - No Benchmark Published

Index of Production

• Panel Method replaced with ratio estimates– Panel of representative companies is

replaced with statistical estimation of each industrial sector

– Enhances coverage and improves estimate quality – better exploitation of sample

– Reviewed and consolidated some subseries

• Methodology change was approved at SESCG in October 2008

Production - Effect of move to Ratio Estimates (with New Weights)

Production

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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New Estimates without Benchmark Published

Services Stratification and other general review

• Service sector sample strata have historically been based on turnover strata.

• Moved now to employment– More stable over time– Structural sources have better employment data– Consistent with Production

• All seasonal modelling has been reviewed– Confirming and honing existing models and

parameters

• Introduced long trailed Atkinson Health Measure

Services – Effects of ChangesServices

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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New - No Benchmark Published

Benchmarking GVA to IO• Output method is a short termshort term indicator

• IO more reliable in the long run– Although doesn’t have quarterly resolution

• Benchmarking IO totals improves long term estimates while retaining resolution

• Series are benchmarked 1994 to 2007

• This methodology was approved by SESCG in the October 2008 meeting.

Effects - ServicesServices

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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benchmarks ON benchmarks OFF Published

Effects– ProductionProduction

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Benchmarks ON Benchmarks OFF Published

Effects - ConstructionConstruction

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

An

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row

th

Benchmarking ON Benchmarking OFF Published

Effects Agriculture Forestry and Fishing

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Benchmarks ON Benchmarks OFF Published

Effects - HeadlineTotal GVA

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

An

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row

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benchmarks ON benchmarks OFF published

• Please keep an eye on ScotStat mailings as we plan to review the format of our publication and will welcome feedback

Total GVA

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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benchmarks ON benchmarks OFF published