Gresham "Group 150" - December 2011 (Print Pdf)

14
DECEMBER 2011 1 ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150 We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. The performance at “ASX Casino” continued for November. The Gresham Group 150 lost $32.2 billion or 6.8% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling from $474.6 billion to $442.5 billion. The gains recorded in October, were all but nearly wiped out. The entry threshold for December’s list fell further to $87.5 million, down from $94.42 million last month. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index decreased 6.5%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 4.0% and 4.1% respectively. We have updated the consensus commodity prices forecasts and replaced the tin analysis with iron ore fines. Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the mining industry. The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction. The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years. Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces. The review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders switch into the target. In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the transaction objective of creating shareholder value in the mining industry. Gresham Advisory Partners Limited GRESHAM GROUP 150 December 2011 Edition 20 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners [email protected] +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.

Transcript of Gresham "Group 150" - December 2011 (Print Pdf)

DECEMBER 2011

1

ASX ReSouRceS - GRoup 150We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.

The performance at “ASX Casino” continued for November.

The Gresham Group 150 lost $32.2 billion or 6.8% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling from $474.6 billion to $442.5 billion. The gains recorded in October, were all but nearly wiped out.

The entry threshold for December’s list fell further to $87.5 million, down from $94.42 million last month. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index decreased 6.5%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 4.0% and 4.1% respectively. We have updated the consensus commodity prices forecasts and replaced the tin analysis with iron ore fines.

Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the mining industry.

The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction. The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years.

Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces.

The review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders switch into the target.

In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the transaction objective of creating shareholder value in the mining industry.

Gresham Advisory partners Limited

Gresham Group 150

December 2011

Edition 20

Darren MartinGresham Advisory [email protected]+61 8 9486 7077+61 412 144 719

Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.

Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - november By Market Capitalisation

Group 150

2

Mkt cap (A$m) % Mkt cap (A$m) %

Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change

1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $185,932.3 $201,266.9 (7.6%) 51 42 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $455.0 $537.2 (15.3%)

2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $118,355.9 $130,801.2 (9.5%) 52 49 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $454.0 $516.5 (12.1%)

3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $26,448.7 $25,639.7 3.2% 53 41 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $450.3 $540.5 (16.7%)

4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $14,136.6 $15,101.9 (6.4%) 54 56 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $448.5 $418.7 7.1%

5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $10,781.5 $10,710.5 0.7% 55 54 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $445.1 $441.1 0.9%

6 6 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $6,088.4 $6,755.6 (9.9%) 56 59 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $421.6 $391.2 7.8%

7 7 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,898.4 $4,939.9 (0.8%) 57 64 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $391.2 $358.9 9.0%

8 8 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $4,836.5 $4,890.9 (1.1%) 58 66 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $387.6 $355.2 9.1%

9 10 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $3,306.4 $3,611.5 (8.4%) 59 61 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $381.5 $381.5 0.0%

10 9 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,287.0 $3,674.7 (10.6%) 60 62 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $378.3 $378.3 0.0%

11 13 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,668.5 $2,470.8 8.0% 61 58 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $376.0 $413.2 (9.0%)

12 11 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,621.0 $2,942.3 (10.9%) 62 63 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $357.4 $371.0 (3.7%)

13 12 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $2,566.9 $2,791.6 (8.0%) 63 67 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $345.0 $319.1 8.1%

14 15 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $2,082.3 $2,065.2 0.8% 64 57 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $335.7 $415.5 (19.2%)

15 17 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $2,011.1 $1,935.9 3.9% 65 71 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $324.9 $311.0 4.5%

16 16 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,864.8 $1,936.1 (3.7%) 66 65 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $322.9 $356.9 (9.6%)

17 14 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,692.6 $2,157.8 (21.6%) 67 55 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $311.8 $438.6 (28.9%)

18 20 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,560.3 $1,389.9 12.3% 68 80 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $309.8 $277.2 11.8%

19 22 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $1,429.4 $1,302.9 9.7% 69 100 Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST) $308.9 $199.5 54.8%

20 18 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,347.8 $1,672.6 (19.4%) 70 70 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $308.7 $315.4 (2.1%)

21 25 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $1,295.0 $1,252.5 3.4% 71 69 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $306.1 $316.0 (3.1%)

22 19 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,294.5 $1,413.9 (8.4%) 72 76 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $304.1 $305.2 (0.4%)

23 21 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $1,154.7 $1,331.9 (13.3%) 73 98 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $294.2 $210.2 40.0%

24 - Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) $1,114.8 $309.0 260.8% 74 90 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $288.8 $237.5 21.6%

25 23 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $1,108.2 $1,260.7 (12.1%) 75 88 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $281.5 $241.7 16.5%

26 24 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,085.8 $1,255.7 (13.5%) 76 89 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $276.5 $240.2 15.1%

27 26 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,076.4 $1,184.0 (9.1%) 77 85 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $254.9 $254.9 0.0%

28 29 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,017.3 $1,044.0 (2.6%) 78 68 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $252.9 $317.5 (20.3%)

29 27 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $959.5 $1,084.2 (11.5%) 79 74 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $244.8 $307.1 (20.3%)

30 31 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $950.7 $1,032.0 (7.9%) 80 73 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $241.3 $308.7 (21.8%)

31 35 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $931.3 $781.2 19.2% 81 84 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $240.1 $257.1 (6.6%)

32 30 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $921.3 $1,042.0 (11.6%) 82 95 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $240.1 $217.5 10.4%

33 28 Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO) $892.8 $1,079.5 (17.3%) 83 91 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $224.0 $228.6 (2.0%)

34 34 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $757.0 $783.7 (3.4%) 84 60 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $221.8 $388.2 (42.9%)

35 39 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $738.5 $597.3 23.6% 85 83 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $217.3 $260.0 (16.4%)

36 48 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $731.4 $519.4 40.8% 86 78 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $215.5 $290.8 (25.9%)

37 33 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $727.8 $816.4 (10.8%) 87 108 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) $212.2 $171.8 23.5%

38 32 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $719.6 $872.5 (17.5%) 88 96 Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE) $207.2 $216.4 (4.3%)

39 36 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $713.1 $713.1 0.0% 89 82 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $202.0 $260.4 (22.4%)

40 47 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $644.8 $523.0 23.3% 90 93 Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ) $201.4 $225.7 (10.8%)

41 45 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $635.5 $529.5 20.0% 91 113 ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU) $200.1 $165.4 21.0%

42 50 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $583.6 $499.9 16.7% 92 97 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $199.3 $210.9 (5.5%)

43 38 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $570.0 $612.6 (7.0%) 93 87 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $198.3 $242.9 (18.4%)

44 37 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $567.8 $627.0 (9.4%) 94 75 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $195.8 $306.3 (36.1%)

45 40 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $549.4 $595.5 (7.7%) 95 112 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $178.4 $165.7 7.7%

46 46 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $542.2 $524.9 3.3% 96 106 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $175.9 $179.0 (1.7%)

47 51 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $522.6 $447.0 16.9% 97 120 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $174.8 $132.7 31.7%

48 43 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $515.2 $532.3 (3.2%) 98 81 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $173.7 $263.7 (34.1%)

49 79 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $510.0 $282.3 80.6% 99 107 Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR) $172.7 $178.8 (3.4%)

50 53 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $481.0 $443.0 8.6% 100 92 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $172.5 $227.8 (24.3%)

Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas

DECEMBER 2011

3

new enTranTs - november eXiTs - november24 Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN)127 Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG)141 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI)144 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD)145 Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH)146 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)147 Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR)149 Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR)150 PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI)Based on market capitalisation as at 30 November vs 31 October

Mkt cap (A$m) % Mkt cap (A$m) %

Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change

101 102 Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG) $169.9 $197.2 (13.9%) 126 115 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $109.6 $147.3 (25.6%)

102 94 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $165.6 $224.5 (26.2%) 127 167 Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG) $108.5 $81.5 33.2%

103 99 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $165.4 $200.5 (17.5%) 128 135 Doray Minerals Limited (ASX:DRM) $108.5 $113.8 (4.7%)

104 118 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $163.6 $141.1 16.0% 129 128 Sylvania Platinum Limited (ASX:SLP) $108.5 $123.5 (12.2%)

105 109 Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) $161.7 $171.0 (5.5%) 130 121 Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN) $107.2 $132.1 (18.9%)

106 119 African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI) $158.1 $140.5 12.5% 131 146 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $106.2 $98.6 7.7%

107 104 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $150.8 $190.5 (20.8%) 132 125 Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) $105.5 $129.2 (18.3%)

108 129 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $150.7 $122.8 22.7% 133 131 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $104.8 $120.7 (13.2%)

109 105 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $148.3 $182.9 (18.9%) 134 150 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $102.3 $94.4 8.4%

110 44 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $147.0 $531.1 (72.3%) 135 141 Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND) $100.8 $106.3 (5.2%)

111 103 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $146.3 $194.4 (24.8%) 136 145 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $99.2 $99.2 0.0%

112 111 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $145.1 $166.8 (13.0%) 137 126 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $98.0 $126.4 (22.4%)

113 123 Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR) $143.3 $130.7 9.6% 138 133 Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO) $97.3 $119.8 (18.8%)

114 142 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) $138.1 $105.1 31.3% 139 137 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) $94.6 $111.7 (15.3%)

115 114 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $132.9 $158.8 (16.3%) 140 140 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $94.6 $110.3 (14.3%)

116 130 Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS) $130.0 $121.2 7.3% 141 160 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) $93.7 $85.0 10.3%

117 101 South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB) $127.3 $198.4 (35.8%) 142 136 African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR) $93.1 $112.6 (17.3%)

118 117 Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC) $126.7 $142.0 (10.8%) 143 139 Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG) $92.1 $110.5 (16.7%)

119 122 Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) $124.7 $131.3 (5.0%) 144 153 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) $91.1 $93.9 (3.0%)

120 127 Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE) $121.1 $126.0 (3.9%) 145 165 Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH) $90.1 $82.8 8.8%

121 144 Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI) $117.1 $100.9 16.1% 146 152 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $89.4 $94.1 (5.0%)

122 138 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $117.0 $111.4 5.1% 147 151 Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR) $89.3 $94.3 (5.3%)

123 124 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) $116.7 $129.7 (10.0%) 148 143 Voyager Resources Limited (ASX:VOR) $89.2 $101.6 (12.2%)

124 116 Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU) $115.2 $146.1 (21.1%) 149 159 Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR) $88.1 $85.9 2.5%

125 132 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) $114.6 $120.6 (5.0%) 150 162 PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI) $87.5 $84.1 4.0%

Group 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - novemberLeaders

Laggers

Source: Capital IQ

* Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month

Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN)Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT)Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH)Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS)NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP)Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH)IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR)Centaurus Metals Limited (ASX:CTM)Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR)

Group 150

4

442.5

merGer & acquisiTions - announced in november & ocToberDate

Announced Target Acquirer Value (A$m)

percent Sought

(%)

premium - 1 Day prior

(%)

premium - 1 Month prior

(%)

consideration offered

29-Nov-2011 Accent Resources N.L. (ASX:ACS) Xinyang Resources (HK) Limited 52.1 91 -12.0 3.1 Cash

25-Nov-2011 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works (MICEX:MAGN) 553.4 100 81.8 106.9 Cash

31-Oct-2011 Laguna Resources NL (ASX:LRC) Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) 11.2 30 107.2 107.2 Cash

13-Oct-2011 Signature Metals Limited (ASX:SBL) LionGold Corp Ltd (SGX:A78) 48.9 100 49.3 29.4 Equity

13-Oct-2011 Iron Ore Holdings Limited, Phils Creek, Lamb Creek, and Yandicoogina Creek Process Minerals International Pty Ltd. 42.0 100 - - Cash

2-Oct-2011 Aston Resources Limited, Maules Creek Project J-Power Australia Pty. Ltd. 374.5 10 - - Cash

Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m

Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion

asX indeX performance - november

+23.0%

Group 150 mkT cap - by commodiTy

Mar

ket V

alua

tion

(A$b

) - G

roup

150

-5.2%

DECEMBER 2011

5

does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry

Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeover premiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the mining industry. The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction.Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specific factors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as the market evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces. The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years.

Target change in Market capitalisation

Source: Capital IQ

1 week prior and 1 week after announcement

1 week prior and 3 months after announcement

29% Average 32% AverageBidder/predator Bidder/predator

Group 150

6

does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTry

TThe review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholders switch into the target. In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the objective of creating shareholder value in the mining industry.

predator change in Market capitalisation

Source: Capital IQ

1 week prior and 1 week after announcement

1 week prior and 3 months after announcement

-2% Average 6% AverageBidder/predator Bidder/predator

DECEMBER 2011

7

Share price performance - November 2011

Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011

Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010

base meTaLs - secTor performance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

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form

ance

Copper Nickel Zinc

Group 150

8

Share price performance - November 2011

Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011

Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010

coaL - secTor performance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

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e Per

form

ance

DECEMBER 2011

9

Share price performance - November 2011

Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011

Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010

diversified - secTor performance

Shar

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ance

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ance

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indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance

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ance

Group 150

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173%159% 126%

Share price performance - November 2011

Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011

Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010

GoLd - secTor performance

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form

ance

Shar

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e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

DECEMBER 2011

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Share price performance - November 2011

Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011

Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010

iron ore - secTor performance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

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e Per

form

ance

Shar

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e Per

form

ance

Group 150

12

Share price performance - November 2011

Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011

Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010

pLaTinum - secTor performance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

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form

ance

uranium - secTor performance

Shar

e Pric

e Per

form

ance

Shar

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form

ance

Shar

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form

ance

DECEMBER 2011

13

consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - november

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low

Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ)

Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb)

Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb)

Iron Ore Fines 62% (US$/mt) Uranium (US$/lb)

AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl)

$1,747 $1,825 $1,808 $1,600

$1,400

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$32.80 $37.00 $36.75

$31.13 $30.47

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$3.58 $3.97 $3.97 $3.76 $3.90

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$7.94 $9.51 $9.53 $9.75

$11.20

$0.00

$4.00

$8.00

$12.00

$16.00

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$0.94 $0.99 $1.08 $1.13 $1.09

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$0.96 $1.06 $1.20 $1.19 $1.18

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$130.90

$167.50 $140.00 $130.00

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$52.25 $64.50 $70.00 $75.00

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$1.00 $1.00 $1.02 $1.00 $0.99

$0.00

$0.25

$0.50

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

$100.36 $96.00 $109.00 $113.00

$126.50

$0

$50

$100

$150

Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015

Group 150

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Terms and ConditionsInformation contained in this publicationThe opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees (collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation. Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision. To whom this information is providedThis publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.Disclaimer and limitation of liabilityTo the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’ option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you.No warranties made as to contentGresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an “AS IS” basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant-ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability.CopyrightCopyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other person or incorporate the information into any other document.General mattersThese Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdiction is not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches.

Advised BHP Billiton on its

$204m offer for United Minerals

Corporation.

Advised BG Group on its $1bn takeover offer for

Pure Energy Resources Limited.

Advised IAMGOLD Corporation on its $265m acquisition

of Gallery Gold.

Advised Gem Diamonds on its

$300m acquisition of Kimberley Diamonds.

Advised Polaris Metals NL on

$178m takeover offer by Mineral

Resources Limited.

Advised Tethyan on its $220m

competing takeover offer by Crosby and Antogafasta/Barrick.

Advised Iluka on its $114m

institutional placement and

$353m accelerated right issue.

Advised Bannerman

Resources on its financing with

Resource Capital Funds.

Advised Iluka Resources on its

$54m Narama coal divestment to

Xstrata.

Advised Murchison Metals

on its joint venture with Mitsubishi.

2010

2010

Advised BHP Billiton on its

US$116bn iron ore production

joint venture with Rio Tinto.

2010

Introduced Denham Capital to

Trans Tasman Resources resulting

in NZ iron sands investment.

2010

2009

Advised Indophil on $545m

recommended offer from Zijin

2010

Advised BHP Billiton on the disposal of the Yabulu Nickel

refinery.

2009

Advised Allied Gold on its $54m

acquisition of Australian

Solomons Gold.

2009

Advised Brandrill Limited on its

$45m takeover offer by Ausdrill

Limited.

2009

2008

Advised Kalahari Minerals on its

$140m proposed merger with

Extract Resources.

2008

Advised Centaurus

Resources on its $20m merger

with Glengarry Resources.

2010

2009/08

2008

Advised Summit Resources on its

A$1.2bn takeover by Paladin Energy.

2007

2008

2006

2007

2008

Advised Guandong Rising on its $216m

cornerstone investment in Pan

Aust.

GRAM2009

Advised Energy Metals on its $86m

proportional takeover offer by China

Guangdong Nuclear Power Group.

2009

Mergers and Acquisitions

Takeover Defence

Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets

recenT resources TransacTions

Takeover Defence

Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets

Mergers and Acquisitions