Greenstreet berman Research on a Risk Based Approach to Safety and Prevention Programmes & Campaigns...
-
Upload
mackenzie-marsh -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of Greenstreet berman Research on a Risk Based Approach to Safety and Prevention Programmes & Campaigns...
greenstreet berman
Research on a Risk Based Approach to Safety and
Prevention Programmes & Campaigns to Save Lives at
Sea
Greenstreet Berman Ltdwww.greenstreet.co.uk
[email protected]: 020 3102 2117
Michael Wright, Paul Leach, Rebecca Canham, Abu Shahriyer, Shona Watson &
Trevor Stockwell
Study for the RNLI (2011-12)
greenstreet berman
Overview of work
• Stage 1: Assess coastal risks; • Stage 2: Evaluating RNLI’s
current coastal safety programmes;
• Stage 3: Developing a future coastal safety strategy.
greenstreet berman Water Accident
Incident Database (WAID)
• Minister for shipping launched WAID at the RoSPA water safety conference in November 2009
• First successful consolidation of drowning data
• MCA, RNLI, ROSPA, police etc pool data
• WAID started in 2007• Published 2009 fatality data
greenstreet berman WAID vs ONS
WAID • ~370 accidental inland
& coastal drownings each year in UK
• About 150 accidental coastal / at sea drowning per year in UK
• 155 suicides (& >100 uncertain)
• Mostly adult men
Office for National Statistics (2010)
• 217 accidental drowning
• 218 suicides
WAID, for the first time, provides a more valid count of accidental drowning...although BSAC have reported diving deaths since 1965 and MAIB publish commercial deaths at sea
greenstreet berman
Accidental coastal drowning per activity pa (2006-2009)
13.0
12.5
3.5
2.5
2.0
4.8
0.35.0
1.31.0
3.8
3.8
14.3
1.30.5
15.0
4.0
17.5
3.17
10.5
7.0
Commercial fishing
Sailing
Angling from boat
Motorboating
Dinghy
Boating
Competitive racing
Motor vehicle
PWC
Windsurfing
Canoeing & Kayaking
Climbing/Cliff/Coasteer
Sub Aqua
Surfing
Kitesurfing
Swimming
Jumping/diving in
Walking
Angling from shore
Waterside activity/playing
Other
greenstreet berman
Some comparisons (inland & coastal)
• 10 people drown every week in June to August in the UK – 4 at sea.
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000220024002600280030003200340036003800
Accidental deaths(2010)
greenstreet berman
Risk criteria
Rates of death of below one in one million people
Risks are broadly acceptable (negligible)
Risks are tolerable but should be reduced as far as reasonably practicable
Rates of death of above 1 in 1000 for workers and 1 in 10,000 for members of the public
Risks are intolerable and must be reduced
greenstreet berman
Coastal rates of accidental drowning by activity
1.0E-061.0E-051.0E-041.0E-03
Waterside activity
Surfing
Coastal walking …
Swimming (outdoor)
Personal water craft
Windsurfing
Angling from shore
Motorboating
Kite surfing
Angling from boat
Manually powered
Climbing/cliff
Sailing & motorboating
Sailing (Dinghy, yacht, …
Sub aqua
Commercial fishing
Fatality rate per personLow riskVery high risk
?
?
?
HSE criteria for intolerable risk
to the public
Cycling fatality rate
Driving fatality rate Accidental fire
death in the homeGliding fatality rate
Motorcycling fatality rate
HSE criteria for negligible
risk to the public
?
greenstreet berman Data sources
• Deaths– Commercial fishing & merchant navy = MAIB– Diving = BSAC– Other = WAID and 2006 to 2008 data from
MCA, ROSPA and RNLI• Participation
– Commercial fishing and merchant navy = Marine Management Organisation & ONS employment data
– Other adults = Arkenford survey– Diving = Arkenford survey and BSAC– Children = ONS
• Comparators– DfT, DCLG, ONS, HSE, FSA
greenstreet berman Some observations of coastal
drowning
• Men are 90% of deaths• Men are main participants in
higher risk activities• Higher male rates of death per
activity
greenstreet berman Coastal child rates of death and
lives saved (2009)
• All activities assumes 4.4m boys and 4.2m girls (aged 5 to 16)
• Beach assumes 2.7m boys and 2.7m girls• 2 deaths and 176 rescues
1.0E-051.0E-041.0E-03
All activities
Beach activities
Rate of death per child
Girls
Boys
greenstreet berman
Societal risk – lives saved (by lifeboats)
greenstreet berman Trends in total coastal deaths
(2006-2010) All activities
• No discernible trend
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Accidental fatal drownings (UK) at sea
Average = 152
greenstreet berman Trends in total coastal deaths (2006-
2009) All leisure activities
• Majority of the year on year changes in the number of deaths (across all leisure activities) attributed to number of water sports and leisure participants and the average summer sea surface temperature;
• No evidence of a decline in coastal accidental drowning.
R² = 0.91
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
16.20 16.30 16.40 16.50 16.60 16.70 16.80 16.90
Leisure fatality rate per million leisure events
Average Weymouth summer surface sea temperature
R² = 0.6188
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
15000000 17000000 19000000 21000000
Accidental fatal drownings in coastal water
leisure activities
Number of leisure participants
greenstreet berman Nature of drowning
• Cold water shock (first few minutes)– Heart attacks (increased blood flow & hydrostatic
pressure)– Hyperventilation – uncontrollable gulping down of
water– High risk to everyone if below 15Oc but possible if
~20oC or more (depends on age, physique, acclimatisation)
– 150 mls of water can kill• Swim failure (after about 10 minutes) due to loss of
control of arms and legs• Hypothermia (sets in after 30 minutes or so – die in
hours) - depends on– Water temperature, – Body mass, – Level of immersion and – Clothing
• Cold water cited as a factor in some incident reports
greenstreet berman
Example of UK sea surface temperature (2000-09)
• 5 out of 9 June’s & October SSW temperature below 15 degree C
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Weymouth average sea surface water
temperature (degree C)
Heightened risk of cold water shock
greenstreet berman Trend in RNLI rescues of
sailing and boating vessels
• More sailing and motor boat incidents vessel incidents per year• Sports participation survey suggests decline in sailing & boating
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rate per 1000 participants
greenstreet berman Sub Aqua fatality rates
• Cannot estimate trends for non-BSAC divers without participation data
• Would need to control for number of dives by type of certification
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Deaths
per
million
BSAC
members
UK deaths per million BSAC members 3 per. Mov. Avg. (UK deaths per million BSAC members)
2011
greenstreet berman UK commercial fishermen rate of
death
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rate of death per million commercial fishermen
greenstreet berman
Coastal water suicides
• WAID indicated 71 suspected suicides in 2009 at coast/ shore/beach/ harbour locations.
• Suspected self-harm accounted for 604 RNLI lifeboat incidents per year on average
• 30 lives saved per year by RNLI
greenstreet berman
Typical causes of fatal coastal accidents
• Underestimate vulnerability, fatigue, impact of cold water etc– Swim failure in ten minutes
• Over estimate own ability– Believe can self rescue if fall overboard
• Fail to understand hazards– Rip currents faster than Olympic swimmers
• Inexperience– Cannot control kite surf
• Behavioural norms– Failure to wear lifejackets
• i.e mostly knowledge, perceptions, attitudes and behaviours (& health status)
greenstreet berman Impact of safety promotion
elsewhere• About 30% decline in Australian coastal
drowning between 2004/05 and 2010/11 following from lifeguards, beach safety promotion, lifejackets campaigns etc;
• 70% reduction in Alaskan fishermen deaths since 1990’s;
• 70% reduction in Irish commercial fishing drowning in 2000’s.
• UK fire deaths in the home fell by 33% in 2000’s;
• 44% fall in road deaths and serious injuries in UK in 2000’s.
greenstreet berman
Features of successful interventions
• Set targets for fewer deaths and injuries;• Significant levels of safety promotion;• Multiple methods - mass media, safety codes,
face to face, schools education, incident follow up and so on;
• Achieve in minds of people:– Conscious of the risk (enough to motivate
behaviour change);– Understand how hazard causes harm;– Understand how safety measures prevent
specific causes of harm;– Confidence in ability to follow safety advice;– Consider safe practice to be the norm.
• Focused on specific issues, e.g. Smoke alarms;• Sustained over many years.
greenstreet berman
Evaluation of current RNLI safety promotion activities
• Need to:– Define targets & aims – Increase volume of engagement for all
sports, leisure and commercial activities to have a measureable impact
– Raise awareness, risk perceptions & concern about risk of drowning
– Increase understanding of water hazards (cold shock, swim failure, rip currents etc)
– Focus on causes of drowning in each activity
– Make safety the norm
greenstreet berman
Example actions being considered
1. Review, revise and re-issue safety guidance:– Compare to incident causes & factors– Good practice comparison– Expert review
2. Improve information provision – signage on beaches, wind/current information APPs, local guides, Point of sale etc;
3. Risk communications – editorials, press releases, radio/TV interviews, Youtube clips etc;
4. Preventative actions – face to face engagement, talks at clubs, site visits, zoning;
5. Incident follow up – talks at local clubs, safety alerts, individual advice for rescued persons;
6. Schools & other education.
greenstreet berman
Next steps• Consider implications of risk
assessment• Consult sports governing bodies, MCA,
ROSPA and others• Consider future strategy & the case for
a National Water Safety Strategy • Consider whether a multi agency
scheme would be appropriate to develop & deliver a national campaign?
• Review, revamp and re launch coastal safety promotion schemes