Greenhouse Gas STRATEGIC SERVICES Climate in Croatia Marktrealität und Ausblick Croatian-German...
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Transcript of Greenhouse Gas STRATEGIC SERVICES Climate in Croatia Marktrealität und Ausblick Croatian-German...
Gre
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Marktrealität und Marktrealität und AusblickAusblick
Croatian-German workshop on business cooperation
Zagreb, 12–13 December 2002
Christiaan VrolijkStrategic Services Unit
Natsource Tullett Europe Ltd
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Natsource InfoNatsource Info Führender Broker-Dealer
– New York, Toronto, Calgary, London, Oslo, Sydney, Tokyo
Environmental Products– Strom, Gas, Kohle– GHG, Erneuerbare Energie, SO2, NOx, Wetter
Finanzielle Produkte– Projektfinanzierungs-Beratung– Value- & Asset Management
Strategische Beratung– multinationale Unternehmen, CAN, NL, EU, UK,
PCF etc.
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Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
InhaltInhalt
1. Einführung
2. GHG Markt bisher– Preisszenarien und Marktausblick
3. Natsource Rolle im Markt
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
1. EinführungEinführung
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
EntwicklungEntwicklung Erste Transaktionen seit 1997— ERs Emission Reductions— VERs Verified Emission Reductions
Seit Marrakesch (2001) zunehmend— CERs Certified Emission Reductions— ERUs Emission Reduction Units— AAUs Assigned Amount Units
UK, DK and EU Allowances
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Environmental marketsEnvironmental markets
Erneuerbare Energie– Netherlands– UK– Sweden– Italy– Belgium– Austria– RECS– EU Directive
Greenhouse gases– Denmark– UK– (C)ERUPT– Other governments– PCF– VERs– EU allowances– Kyoto mechanisms
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Warum jetzt handelnWarum jetzt handeln
Käufers Hedge Risiko Handeln Grünes Image Policy Entwicklung Diversifiziertes
Portfolio
Verkäufer Asset liquidieren Finanzierung der
projekte & technology Brand Recognition Policy Entwicklung Capture revenue in
case of Kyoto failure
Emission reductions = Risiko & opportunity
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
2. Der heutige MarktDer heutige Markt
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
KäuferKäufer
World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund
Private funds
Niederlandische Regierung: Erupt & Cerupt
Andere Regierung:– Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, etc.
Private Firmen
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
UKUK Marktteilnehmer
– 34 Direkt, 5.000 CCL und “non-naturals” > 200 trades bisher; Markt: ~£4.00 @ £5.00
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Globaler GHG MarktGlobaler GHG Markt
Vorrangig VERs Forwards & Call Optionen Letzten 12 Monate sehr aktiv World Bank Schätzung: ~160MtCO2e
UK und DK Allowances seit Oktober 2001 Seit den Marrakesch Akkords sind
Verkäufer in der Lage CERs, ERUs, AAUs und evtl. EU Allowances anzubieten
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
PreisePreiseVERs
JI-VERsCDM-VERs
NL-Erupt
AAUsCERsERUs
EUDkUK
— $0.60 – 1.50— $1.65 – 3 — $ 1.15 – 4.83— €5 – 9
— €7— $2 – 6— €4 – 5— €4 – 6— Dkr 3 – 36 — £4 – 5
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Preis vs. RisikoPreis vs. Risiko
Angebot garantierter Kyoto Compliance Tools– Verkäufer Risiko: Projektrisiko, Volumen,
Kyoto eligibility, Kreditwürdigkeit & Preis– Käufer Risiko: Kredit & Preis
– Käufer zahlt Risikoprämie & Zeit– Verkäufer muss notfalls Ersatzlieferung
vom Markt kaufen
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
3. Natsource’s RolleNatsource’s Rolleim Marktim Markt
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Natsource’s Rolle im MarktNatsource’s Rolle im Markt
Alle “transactional services” erforderlich Regelmäßiger Kontakt mit Markt Teilnehmer
– Käufer und Verkäufer (buy/sell)– Up to date Markt Informationen– Beste Preise
Umfangreiche Erfahrung im Handel– Auch in diesem Markt
Optionele / Transaktionsstruktur (Risiko, Cash Flow etc.)
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Trading toolsTrading tools
Immediate settlement / spot market– Deliver now, pay now
Forwards– Deliver later, pay now or later– Can be stream of vintages (e.g. 2002–2006)– Price reflects costs, interest, risk
Options– Put, call, collar, straddle– Limit price risk on buy and sell side– Limited risk of failure of delivery
Gre
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Natsource market platformNatsource market platform
Gre
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Contact / informationContact / informationTransactional services:
Harvey Abrahams, Tim Atkinson, Martin Collins, Nina Marenzi, Albrecht von Ruffer, Fiona Santokie
Tel: +44 –20–7827–2942
Advisory services: Dirk Forrister, Frank Joshua, Christiaan Vrolijk
Tel: +44 –20–7827–[email protected]
www.natsource.comCalgary – Houston – London – New York – Oslo
Ottawa – Sydney – Tokyo – Toronto – Washington DC
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Market reality and Market reality and prospectsprospects
Croatian-German workshop on business cooperation
Zagreb, 12–13 December 2002
Christiaan VrolijkStrategic Services Unit
Natsource Tullett Europe Ltd
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
About NatsourceAbout Natsource Trading floors globally
– New York, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Oslo, Sydney
Transactional services– Electricity, natural gas, coal– Greenhouse gases, renewables, SO2, Nox, weather
Financial services– Project financing consulting– Value & asset management
Strategic consulting– Multinationals, EC, NL, UK, World Bank, etc.
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
This presentationThis presentation
1. Introduction
2. The markets today– Prices and market prospects
3. Natsource role
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
1. IntroductionIntroduction
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Market developmentMarket development First transactions in 1997— ERs Emission Reductions— VERs Verified Emission Reductions
Increasing since Marrakesch (2001)— CERs Certified Emission Reductions— ERUs Emission Reduction Units— AAUs Assigned Amount Units
UK, DK and EU Allowances
Gre
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use
Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Environmental marketsEnvironmental markets
Renewables– Netherlands– UK– Sweden– Italy– Belgium– Austria– RECS– EU Directive
Greenhouse gases– Denmark– UK– (C)ERUPT– Other governments– PCF– VERs– EU allowances– Kyoto mechanisms
Gre
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ho
use
Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Drivers for early tradingDrivers for early trading
Buyers Hedge risk Proprietary trading Green public image Policy development Diversify portfolio Green Power
Sellers Monetise asset Finance projects &
technology Brand Recognition Policy development Capture revenue in
case of Kyoto failure
Emission reductions = Risk & opportunity
Gre
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
2. The markets todayThe markets today
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
BuyersBuyers
World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund
Private funds
Dutch government Erupt & Cerupt
Other governments:
– Austria, Sweden, Finland, etc.
Private companies
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
UKUK Market participants
– 34 direct, 5,000 CCA and traders Over 200 trades so far; market ~£4.00 @ £5.00
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Global GHG marketGlobal GHG market
Large share of VER forwards & call options Greatly increased activity in the last year New World Bank estimate: ~160MtCO2e
UK & DK Allowances since October 2001 Since Marrakesh, sellers are offering CERs,
ERUs, AAUs and also EU allowances
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
PricesPricesVERs
JI-VERsCDM-VERs
NL-Erupt
AAUsCERsERUs
EUDkUK
— $0.60 – 1.50— $1.65 – 3 — $ 1.15 – 4.83— €5 – 9
— €7— $2 – 6— €4 – 5— €4 – 6— Dkr 3 – 36 — £4 – 5
Gre
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Price v. riskPrice v. risk
Guaranteed Kyoto Compliance Tools– Sellers risk: project, volume and price
risk, Kyoto eligibility and credit worthiness– Buyers risk: credit and price
– Buyer will discount for risk & time– Seller might have to contract emergency
replacement reductions on the market
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
3. Natsource’s role inNatsource’s role inthe marketthe market
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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Natsource role in the marketNatsource role in the market
All transactional services required Regular contact with market players
– On both sides (buy/sell)– Up to date market information– Best price
Extensive trading experience/knowledge– Also in these early markets!
Best contract structure to suit your business
Gre
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Trading toolsTrading tools
Immediate settlement / spot market– Deliver now, pay now
Forwards– Deliver later, pay now or later– Can be stream of vintages (e.g. 2002–2006)– Price reflects costs, interest, risk
Options– Put, call, collar, straddle– Limit price risk on buy and sell side– Limited risk of failure of delivery
Gre
enh
ou
se G
asG
reen
ho
use
Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Natsource market platformNatsource market platform
Gre
enh
ou
se G
asG
reen
ho
use
Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Contact / informationContact / informationTransactional services:
Harvey Abrahams, Tim Atkinson, Martin Collins, Nina Marenzi, Albrecht von Ruffer, Fiona Santokie
Tel: +44 –20–7827–2942
Advisory services: Dirk Forrister, Frank Joshua, Christiaan Vrolijk
Tel: +44 –20–7827–[email protected]
www.natsource.comCalgary – Houston – London – New York – Oslo
Ottawa – Sydney – Tokyo – Toronto – Washington DC
Gre
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Gas
STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES
Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia
Climate Change and PowerClimate Change and Power
Lead author:Christiaan Vrolijk
Published by:RIIA/Earthscan
Price:£19.95 paperback£50 hardback
Order:[email protected]