Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research: The change election - what voters were really saying

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Special Post-Election SurveyPresented at RSA17 May 2010

17 May 2010

The change election –what voters were really saying

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Special post-election survey

This national post-election survey of 1,000 general election voters across England, Scotland and Wales was conducted immediately after the election between the 7th and 9th of May, 2010. Similar to the brand of survey conducted following elections in the United States, this is the first in Great Britain.

Designed in its content and timing to preserve the mandate and capture what voters actually felt and believed when they cast their votes, this survey goes beyond the exit polls to present rich and colourful content about who voted in this election and why.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

2010 – what really happened

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 3 |

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

37

30

3 2

24

2 1110

25

50

Tories Labour Lib Dems UKIP BNP SNP Green Plaid Cymru Other

The final general election voteAnd in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?

Note: Vote totals based on allocation of those who refused to answer.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

1514

866

50

Before electioncalled

Shortly afterelection called

After first debate After last debate Last couple ofdays

On Election Day

Half knew vote before election, but over 1/3rd decided in final weekWhen did you finally decide to vote for (Chosen Party): on Election Day, in the last couple of days, right after the last debate in the last week, after the first debate, shortly after the elections were called, or did you know who you would vote for even before elections were officially called?

Decided in Final Week: 37

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

38 40

32

22

9

3127

18

29

60

26 26 28

9 11

31 3327

33

41

23 1012

0

25

50

75

Before electioncalled

Shortly afterelection called

After first debate After last debate Last couple ofdays

On Election Day

Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats Other Parties

The vote amongst those who made up their mind whenAnd in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Six in ten watched at least one debate

Tory VotersTotal Labour Voters Lib Dem Voters

Watched at Least One Debate: 64




As you probably know, there were three debates between Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg over the month prior to Election Day. Many people were not able to watch these debates. How about you? Were you able to see any of the debates?

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

41

69 6974

70

9

22 2318 19303333

6 710

Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative

Very Positive Very Negative


Debates a positive addition And whether or not you watched the debates, do you think that they were a positive or negative addition to the process?

+51+47 +46 +56

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

10

20

28

35

36

40

48

8

19

16

26

0 25 50

Conservative vote motivated by change, economy, debt, and BrownNow I am going to read you a list of reasons some people may say were the deciding factors in voting the way they did. After I read this list please tell me which three describe the most important reasons you voted the way you did for the Conservative Party.

The national debt

The economy

Usually vote Conservative

Done with Gordon Brown

Time for a change

Cameron’s qualities

Labour’s planned tax increases

Pro-family policies

Political expenses and corruption

Idea of small government and big society

The Conservative Party has changed

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

9

20

26

33

33

40

58

7

18

15

20

0 20 40 60

Labour vote driven by NHS/schools, recovery, rich Tories & Cameron Now I am going to read you a list of reasons some people may say were the deciding factors in voting the way they did. After I read this list please tell me which three describe the most important reasons you voted the way you did for the Labour Party.

Conservatives for the rich, not working people

The economy and need to ensure recovery

Usually vote Labour

Not impressed with David Cameron

Support for NHS and schools

Brown’s qualities

Labour’s achievements

Conservatives’ planned cuts in spending

Will make right choices to reduce debt

Support for US alliance and Afghanistan

Not impressed with Nick Clegg

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

16

18

26

33

33

37

42

14

17

17

23

0 25 50

Liberal Democrats also wanted change, electoral reformNow I am going to read you a list of reasons some people may say were the deciding factors in voting the way they did. After I read this list please tell me which three describe the most important reasons you voted the way you did for the Liberal Democrats.

Not impressed with David Cameron

For electoral reform

Ideas of a fairer Britain

Not impressed with Gordon Brown

Time for a change

Opposition to Iraq war

Usually vote Liberal Democrat

Political expenses and corruption

Clegg’s qualities

Against Trident and military spending

For all parties working together

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

353428

Current system Proportionalrepresentation

Vote top three

72

15

23

56

Favor Oppose

Large majority of voters for electoral reform

Favor +47

Reform of vote for parliament Reform of financing elections

Some people have proposed changing the way people get to vote for parliament. Which would you like to see?

Would you favor or oppose having all parliamentary elections financed out of public funds, with strictly enforced limits on how much each candidate could spend, or not?

Support for reform: 63

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

24

49

3036

75

29 30

48

6660

25

53

15

33

11

46

Cut debt now Wait untilrecovery




First statement strongly Second statement strongly

+50+1 +36 +24


The voters split on campaigns’ economic debate: cut now or not

First Statement: We must start cutting the national debt right away.

Second Statement: We must wait to cut the debt until the economic recovery is underway.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

38

2522

17

3932

50

21 23 2418

30

0

25

50

75

Total LabourVoters

ConsiderLabour

Labour2005

Lib DemVoters

Tory Voters Total LabourVoters

ConsiderLabour

Labour2005

Lib DemVoters

Tory Voters

% Very Cool: Under 25

Anti-immigration and anti-EU: % very hostile

-50 0 +7-5+3

Warm – Cool

-15 -7-220

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVOURABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVOURABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold… immigration… the European Union.

-30

Immigration The European Union

-19 -41

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

33

41

38

44

55

60

42

47

37

33

25

38

44

40

75 50 25 0 25 50 75

Cool Warm

New Labour’s leaders in backgroundNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVOURABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVOURABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Warm -Cool

Therm. Mean

David Cameron

+749.6

+248.8The Conservatives

The Labour Party -944.1

+149.0

+349.4

-2239.3

The Liberal Democrats

Nick Clegg

Gordon Brown

-3536.2Tony Blair

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

42

34

22

3134

3027

14

19

9

1512

32

37 36

60

25

50

AB C1 C2 DE


The final general election vote by classAnd in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

38

2823

47

36

5246

4954

32

51

20

30

53

0

25

50

75

Total AB C1 C2 DE MenC2DE

OlderC2DE

Total AB C1 C2 DE MenC2DE

OlderC2DE

% Very Cool: Under 25

Working class hostility to immigration and EU: % very hostile

-30

Warm – Cool

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVOURABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVOURABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold… immigration… the European Union.

Immigration The European Union

-14 -23 -51 -45 -57 -49 -19 0 -13 -39 -37 -43 -44

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

40

3228

33

47

22

3134

26 25

19 18

3027

1419

106

9 9

1512

27

3429

42

3237

47

36

670

25

50

AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE


General election vote by class: 2005 and 2010And in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?

Note: Vote totals based on allocation of those who refused to answer. Note: GQRR vote totals based on allocation of those who refused to answer. ICM/Guardian numbers from pre-election poll dated May 1-3rd, 2005. ICM/Guardian data excludes those who will not vote, don’t know, or refuse to answer.

GQRR 2010 Post-ElectionICM/Guardian 2005 Prediction

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

The final general election vote by ageAnd in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

34 33

44

29 29

20

2724 24

41

36

24

1010113

0

25

50

Large City Suburbs Small City/Town Village/Rural


The final general election vote by type of areaAnd in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

35

50

37

16

23

3941

2226

30

22 2319

711

9

24

43

16

37

31

26

870

25

50

Greater London Southeast Southwest/Wales Midlands North Scotland


The final general election vote by regionAnd in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

9

29

56

3732

21

3 4

Tories formthe gov't

Tory-Lib Demcoalition

Labour-LibDem coalition

with a newLabour leader

Unitygovernment



Labour-LibDem coalition

with a newLabour leader

Unitygovernment

Labour and Lib Dem voters wanted a different governmentWith a hung parliament, what would you like to see happen?

Labour Voters Lib Dem Voters

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

7

29

56

282933

5 8



A coalition ofLabour and

Lib Dem

Unitygovernment



A coalition ofLabour and

Lib Dem

Unitygovernment

Preferred government without a change of Labour leaderWith a hung parliament, what would you like to see happen?

Labour Voters Lib Dem Voters

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

The position of the Conservative Party


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Value associations: Conservatives chosen above or at their vote

37

38

38

38

40

42

42

44

52

66

22

25

32

35

29

30

26

25

24

18

23

28

17

12

16

12

19

9

17

5

18

9

13

15

15

16

13

22

7

11

0 50 100

Conservatives Labour Lib Dems All/None/DK

For the middle class

For big corporate interests

Tory –Labour

+48

Tory Vote: 37%

+28

+19British

Now, let me ask you something a little different, but again about values. After I read each one, please tell me which party you associate more with the term: Labour, Conservatives, or the Liberal Democrats?

+16

+12

For middle Britain

Will act boldly if needed

Has a vision for Britain to be successful

Trust to manage the economy

Improving your own standard of living

For the right kind of change

Right approach to immigration

+11

+3

+6

+13

+15

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Value associations: Conservatives chosen below their vote

24

25

32

32

35

23

43

33

32

31

23

22

21

20

22

30

10

14

16

12

0 50 100

Conservatives Labour Lib Dems All/None/DK

On your side

Shares your values

Tory –Labour

+4

Tory Vote: 37%

0

-1Keeping taxes at the right level for you


-18

+1

For the average person

Trustworthy

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

13 12

46

26

35 34 35

29

44 4335

50

7165 63 61

1711

22

51

Changed Has notchanged






Non-Tories unconvinced of Conservative Party’s changes

+26

Lib Dem Voters

First Statement: David Cameron changed the Conservative Party.

Second Statement: The Conservative Party has not changed very much.

+29

Labour Voters 2005

+4

Total

+45

Labour Voters

+30

Considered Labour

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

The position of Liberal Democrats


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Value associations: Lib Dems chosen at or near their vote

22

22

23

23

28

35

25

37

24

38

31

43

22

23

25

12

10

18

30

9

0 50 100

Lib Dems Conservatives Labour All/None/DK

Trustworthy

For the right kind of change -10

Lib Dem Vote: 24%

-1

-14Right approach to immigration


-3

-13


Shares your values

LD –Cons

LD –Lab

+3

0

+1

-21

-9

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Value associations: Lib Dems chosen below their vote

5

9

12

12

16

17

17

19

20

21

66

44

42

38

40

52

38

42

32

32

18

25

30

35

29

24

32

26

32

33

11

22

16

15

15

7

13

13

16

14

0 50 100

Lib Dems Conservatives Labour All/None/DK

On your side

Keeping taxes at the right level for you

LD –Cons

-11

Lib Dem Vote: 24%

-12

-23For middle Britain


-21

-35


For the middle class

Has a vision for Britain to be successful



British

For big corporate interests

-24

-26

-30

-35

-61

LD –Lab

-12

-12

-7

-15

-7

-13

-23

-18

-16

-13

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

The position of Labour


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

30

38

3331

0

25

50

Labour 2010 Actual Labour Vote + VerySeriously Considered Voting

Labour

Labour Party Identification Labour 2005 Vote

The Labour voteAnd in the general election yesterday/Thursday, which party did you vote for -- the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats?


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

13

36

15

33

43

53

55

37

28

14

13

21

15

4

60 40 20 0 20 40 60

Cool Warm

Labour leadersNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVOURABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVOURABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Warm -Cool

Therm. Mean

Jon Cruddas

-2935.6

-2239.3

Alan Johnson

Ed Miliband -2139.9

-1641.9

-936.7

-4032.3

David Miliband

Ed Balls

Harriet Harman

ID

100

76

69

24

71

80

Gordon Brown

42.7 -13 56

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Value associations: Labour chosen above their vote

32

32

33

35

43

38

32

32

38

25

17

20

21

12

22

13

16

14

15

10

0 50 100

Labour Conservatives Lib Dems All/None/DK



Labour – Tory

+18

Labour Vote: 30%

-3

+1Keeping taxes at the right level for you


0

-6

On your side


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Value associations: Labour chosen near their vote

29

30

31

40

42

35

16

12

22

15

16

12

0 50 100



Shares your values

Labour – Tory

-4

Labour Vote: 30%

-12


-11Has a vision for Britain to be successful

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Value associations: Labour chosen below their vote

22

23

24

25

25

26

37

24

52

44

38

42

23

23

17

9

28

19

18

30

7

23

9

13

0 50 100


British

For the right kind of change

Labour – Tory

-13

Labour Vote: 30%

-19

-28For the middle class


-1

-15

Trustworthy

Right approach to immigration

For middle Britain -16

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

30

52

15

27 30

52

19 19

32

12

43

80

66 66

43

33

616

12

41

Needs toget act

together

Goodpolicies/leaders

Needs toget act

together


Needs toget act

together


Needs toget act

together


Needs toget act

together



Labour believes it has good policies and new leaders

First Statement: Labour needs a long time in the wilderness to get its act together.

Second Statement: Labour has good policies and new leaders.

+9

Lib Dem Voters

+36

Labour Voters 2005

+9

Total

+65

Labour Voters

+39

Considered Labour

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

34

51

40

50

20

21

34

2433

48 4853

48

67

7

243336

19 22

LeadingParty

In Coalition LeadingParty




In Coalition


+47

Lib Dem Voters

+2

Labour Voters 2005

+14

Total

+3

Labour Voters

+13

Considered Labour

First Statement: The Labour Party should work to be the leading party again.

Second Statement: The Labour Party should work to lead in coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

Labour divided on whether party should be leading or in coalition

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

45

2834 33

46

20

3631

20

40

6860 60

43

178

161317

40

Ownapproach

Unitedforce

Ownapproach

Unitedforce

Ownapproach

Unitedforce

Ownapproach

Unitedforce

Ownapproach

Unitedforce


+3

Lib Dem Voters

+27

Labour Voters 2005

+5

Total

+40

Labour Voters

+26

Considered Labour

Labour ready for center-left project; Lib Dems less clear

First Statement: Labour and Liberal Democrats should each advance their own center-left approach and against the Conservatives.

Second Statement: Labour and Liberal Democrats should work together as a center-left force and against the Conservatives.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

31 31 3329

33

21 23

37

16

46

65

49

66

44

8

2417

2214

34

Old Labour NewLabour






+11

Lib Dem Voters

+37

Labour Voters 2005

+15

Total

+34

Labour Voters

+16

Considered Labour

Labour wants to be New Labour

First Statement: This is the time to get back to old Labour.

Second Statement: This is the time for New Labour.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

33

54

44 45

3335

2227 29

60

45

54 5158

15

26 2328

1519

Closer toUnions

Away fromUnions

Closer toUnions

Away fromUnions

Closer toUnions

Away fromUnions

Closer toUnions

Away fromUnions

Closer toUnions

Away fromUnions


+25

Lib Dem Voters

+6

Labour Voters 2005

+27

Total

+9

Labour Voters

+10

Considered Labour

Labour divided on future role of unions

First Statement: Labour needs to be closer to the unions.

Second Statement: Labour needs to be more independent of the unions.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

The progressive future: spending and debt


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

45

32

18

40

59

18

30

14 13

46

58

68

49

33

31

2

131019

26

Cutspending

Raisetaxes

Cutspending

Raisetaxes

Cutspending

Raisetaxes

Cutspending

Raisetaxes

Cutspending

Raisetaxes


+26

Lib Dem Voters

+9

Tory Voters

+1

Total

+26

Labour Voters

+50

Considered Labour

Progressives: raise taxes to preserve servicesFirst Statement: To reduce the debt, we will need to make major cuts in spending and public services.

Second Statement: To reduce the debt, we must raise taxes broadly and do less cutting of spending and services.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

20

30 3026 26 25

3341

5346 44

39

66 6673 70 72

64

19 19 1721 18

42

Cut taxes Not cuttaxes







+31

Lib Dem Voters

+47

Tory Voters

+36

Total

+36

Labour Voters

+47

Considered Labour

First Statement: It is time to cut taxes. Second Statement: It is not the time to cut taxes.

Not time to cut taxes

+44

Labour Voter 2005

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

57

7076

64

43

20 17

28

40

2621

31

56

22

544547

36

612

Too far Not farenough






+13

Lib Dem Voters

+33

Tory Voters

+17

Total

+44

Labour Voters

+55

Considered Labour

Country concerned will go too far cutting spending to cut debt

First Statement: I'm more worried that we will go too far in cutting social spending and public services.

Second Statement: I'm more worried that we won't go far enough to cut spending and reduce the debt.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

The progressive future: government & markets


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

25

5762

46

65

2318

39 3745

3136

4234

24 24

Government Society Government Society Government Society Government Society



+34+18 +25 +1

Government over big society

First Statement: If government gets the right policies, Britain can do well.

Second Statement: If society is strong, Britain can do well.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

38

71

8377

65

10

2214 17

2537

4838

8 7Government Markets Government Markets Government Markets Government Markets


+40+49 +69 +60

More government over more markets

First Statement: This is a time for government to get more involved.

Second Statement: This is a time to depend more on markets.


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

37

6576 71

54

1813

3019

25

40

34

52

40

26

10Encourageinvestment

Less regulation Encourageinvestment



Less regulation


Government investing preferred to less regulation/more enterprise

First Statement: To get future economic growth, the British government will need to encourage investment in new industries and sectors.

Second Statement: To get future economic growth, Britain will have to create an environment with less regulation and more freedom of enterprise.

+14+35 +57 +46


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

39

5854

6556

17 15 18

38 42

3139

303033

19

Do too little Go too far Do too little Go too far Do too little Go too far Do too little Go too far


Want greater regulation of financial communityFirst Statement: I'm more worried that we will do too little to regulate the financial community and allow for another era of speculative booms and busts.

Second Statement: I'm more worried that we will go too far in regulating the financial community, which will harm the British economy.

+17+20 +12 +34


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

27

38

4841 44 40

61

3035 39

22

4856 54 57

36

222529 33

Greateropportunity

Lessinequality

Greateropportunity

Lessinequality

Greateropportunity

Lessinequality

Greateropportunity

Lessinequality

Greateropportunity

Lessinequality


Fairness and inequality central to progressives, especially Lib Dems

First Statement: We need policies to create greater opportunity.

Second Statement: We need policies to bring less inequality and more fairness.

+25

Lib Dem Voters

+17

Tory Voters

Tied

Total

+15

Labour Voters

+10

Labour Voter 2005

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

The progressive future: world


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

25

3237

49

1826

48

6457

47

77

10

2118

3934

More involvedwith EU

Less involvedwith EU








Voters want less to do with the EU

First Statement: Britain needs to be more involved in the EU.

Second Statement: Britain needs to be less involved in the EU.

+59+32 +20 +2


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

45

4955

61

44

21

37

4537

32

53

18

3729 32

26

In Europe Out or Europe In Europe Out or Europe In Europe Out or Europe In Europe Out or Europe


Though more division about Britain’s place in Europe generally

First Statement: Britain needs to be in Europe. Second Statement: Britain needs to be out of Europe

+9+4 +18 +29


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

41

54 52

67

49

13

27

43 45

31

46

31333424 25

Independent US Strong Ally Independent US Strong Ally Independent US Strong Ally Independent US Strong Ally


More independence from the United States, including Labour

First Statement: Britain should be more independent of the United States.

Second Statement: Britain should be a strong ally of the United States.

+3+11 +7 +36


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

Bold new offers


May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

18

55

36

57

71

2613

40

59

40

23

242819 22

40

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

Strongly favor Strongly oppose

Bold deficit reduction with tax increases and spending cuts

+48+15 +23 +17


Let me describe an initiative that a new Conservative Party government would offer in the Queen's speech if it got that opportunity. Please tell me whether you support or oppose this initiative.

It is time for the government to be absolutely honest and bold about what we must do as a country to address the debt, avoid becoming another Greece and making it possible to make future investments for growth. We can no longer pretend tinkering will do or that the challenge is not grave. In a year's time, the VAT will be raised from 17.5 to 20 percent, except on children's items. Tolls will be added on some motorways. And public sector spending will be cut by 10 percent in all departments. We recognise that this will be painful for many people, but it is the right course for our nation's future and children and we call on all parties to support it.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |

44

8087 86

69

147 9

25

22

5340

113Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

Strongly favor Strongly oppose

Country behind progressive agenda on inequality and fairness

+44+66 +80 +77


Let me describe an initiative that a Labour-Liberal Democratic coalition would offer in the Queen's speech if they got that opportunity. Please tell me whether you support or oppose this initiative.

It is time to be honest about the biggest challenge facing Britain - the growing inequality in British society. Both during periods of economic growth and periods of deep recession, hardworking families have lost income, poverty entrenched, and young people struggling for jobs - even as the wealthiest get wealthier and CEOs take outlandish bonuses. Britain will be more successful if it is a fairer Britain. Today's initiative makes permanent the 50p rate and the 50 percent tax on CEO bonuses, while abolishing taxes up to 30,000 pounds in income. Most important are investments and support for new growth industries and skills that can provide British job growth in the future.

May 20, 2010May 20, 2010 |


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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research: The change election - what voters were really saying

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Transcript of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research: The change election - what voters were really saying