Green Urbanization in Asia

Guanghua Wan

Asian Development Bank

Main Messages

• Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in several aspects

• … leading to enormous challenges, including environmental degradation

• But urbanization can help!

• To ensure a win-win scenario, green urbanization policies shall exploit unique features of Asia’s urbanization and late comer’s advantage

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1980-2010 2010-2040

Incr

eas

e in

Urb

an P

op

ula

tio

n (

mill

ion

) Increase in Urban Population in Asia and the Pacific (millions)

Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia

India China, People's Rep. of Rest of Asia & Pacific

1.06 billion 1 billion

Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented

Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

China, People's Rep. of

Bhutan

Lao PDR

Indonesia

Viet Nam

Asia and the Pacific

Europe

North America

Latin America andCaribbean

Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate

10% 49% 210 years

9% 51% 105 years

12% 51% 150 years

11% 51% 95 years

12% 50% 90 years

12% 54% 65 years

10% 52% 60 years

10% 51% 55 years

11% 51% 61 years

Unique feature 1: very fast speed

Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world…

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Mu

mb

ai

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lkat

a

Kar

ach

i

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gota

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a

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ila

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ran

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hd

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Hyd

era

bad

São

Pau

lo

De

nsi

ty (

pe

rso

n/m

2)

Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, 2007

Asia & the Pacific (17/25) Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa

Source: www.citymayors.com

Unique feature 3: many megacities

Megacities, 2010

ASIA: 12/23

Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of

the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.

Source: UN (2012).

Unique feature 4: low starting base

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Leve

l of

Urb

aniz

atio

n (

%)

Level of Urbanization by Region (%)

52%

43%

67%

63%

Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

12

21

0

5

10

15

20

25

Asia Non-Asia

Urban Primacy (%, 2009)

Rat

io o

f P

op

ula

tio

n in

Lar

gest

Cit

ies

ove

r U

rban

Po

pu

lati

on

(%

)

Unique feature 5: the largest cities are likely to grow bigger

Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

… thus more and bigger megacities are emerging

Megacities, 2025

ASIA: 21/37

Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.

Source: UN (2012).

Unprecedented urbanization poses enormous challenges already serious

• Growing inequalities

• Rising urban crimes

• Expansion of slums

• Above all, environmental degradation

Pollution

Vulnerability to flooding

67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non-Asian) cities fail to meet EU air quality standard

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ah

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aata

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uan

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anas

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uan

gK

on

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arb

inTi

anjin

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jing

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izli

PM

10 L

eve

l (m

icro

gram

s/cu

bic

met

er)

Cities with PM10 above 100 ug/m3 (2008-2009)

Asia and the Pacific (34/57) Non-Asia and the Pacific

EU standard

Source: WHO (2012).

97%

18%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Asia Non-Asia

Growth of Per Capita CO2 Emissions over 2000-2008 (%)

CO2 emissions grow fast in Asia

Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

Environment may degrade further with growth

Asia’s Environmental Kuznets Curve

05

1015

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(ton

s/ca

pita

)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000

GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP)

2010=$6,107 Peak=$40,9712010=$6,107 Peak=$40,971

Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

CO2 emissions may triple under the business-as-usual scenario

3.4 3.5

5.6

7.6

9.3 10.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(to

ns/

cap

ita)

Projected CO2 emissions based on latest EKC

Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

Vulnerability will rise with urbanization

154 198

63

92 83

115

3

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2025

Po

pu

lati

on

at

Ris

k (m

illio

n)

East Asia South Asia

Coastal Flooding

410 M

303 M

141

192

63

91 33

46

8

11

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2025

Central and West Asia Southeast Asia

Inland Flooding

341 M

245 M

Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

Unique features of Asian urbanization make challenges more serious...

• Low level = a long way to go

• Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn

• More & bigger megacities = hard to manage

• More slums = higher vulnerability

But, can urban agglomeration help?

• Service sector pollutes less

• Manufacturers relocate (e.g., decline manu.)

• Efficient provision of infrastructure and services

• Innovation and higher labor productivity

• Nurture middle class and property owners

• And ...

Urbanization leads to lower fertility

48.4 42.6

39.0 39.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050

Re

du

ctio

n in

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

n)

Reduction in Projected Population due to Urbanization

… and more human capital

Population Subgroups Sacrifice Growth

Sacrifice Income

Pay Higher Taxes

Support Regulation

By educational attainment No formal education 32.3 49.5 43.2 42.1

Less than Secondary Education 42.4 68.7 58.3 60.4

Secondary Education 45.2 75.3 62.8 60.8

At least Some University Education 46.8 80.8 67.7 61.0

World 49.3 61.8 53.3 67.2

Asia 43.4 71.8 60.4 58.5

The environmental impacts of urbanization

The growth impact may be negative

The composition effect is positive

Technical effect is also positive

Environment-Urbanization relation has improved over time

10

20

30

40

50

60

PM

10 L

evel (u

g/m

3)

0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)

pm10hat1_u pm10hat2_u

01

23

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns (

mt/ca

pita

)

0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)

co2hat1_u 2000s

1990s

2000s

1990s

2000s

CO2 PM10

Environment-Urbanization Curves

Source: ADB estimates.

Green urbanization can help shift the curves further • Megacities with satellite cities:

ToD, BRT, green/compact/eco- cities concepts

• Exploit late comer advantage:

Leapfrog technology by import or R&D;

Timely introduction of regulations: pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap & trade, reduce subsidies, increasing block tariffs, …

Conclusions

• It is counter-productive to contain

urbanization, even for environmental

concerns

• But, urbanization must be steered into a

green path that exploits own unique features

• Asia can achieve green urbanization!

Thank You

gwan@adb.org