The conflicting case of the energy transformation at times

of austerity in Italy  

Tommaso Rondinella and Elena GrimacciaIstat

Green economy trends

GDP. Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and material consumption (indexes 1990=100)

Source: Elaboration on Eurostat data

Energy consumption

Production, net imports, consumption in Energy Sector in Italy - all products (Million tonnes of oil equivalent -Mtoe)

Source: Eurostat

Energy intensity

Gross inland consumption of energy divided by GDP – 2000, 2010 (chain-linked volumes - reference year 2005) - kilogram of oil equivalent (kgoe) per 1000 euro

Source: Eurostat

Energy intensity

ODEX Index (1990=100)

Source: Enea elaborations on MSE data

Electric energy mix

Shares of electric energy production by source. 2000-2011 (%)

Source: GSE

RES 20/20/20 objectives

Source: Eurostat

Share of energy from renewable sources by sector and 20/20/20 strategy objectives (percentages on energy consumption)

RES future perspectives

Source: SEN 2013

Expected evolution of electric energy production from renewable sources (TWh per year, estimates)

Austerity

Source: Ministry of Economics and Finance (2013a) *Cumulated effects of laws and decrees (DL 112/2008, DL 185/2008,  LF 2009, DL 5/2009, LF 2010, DL 78/2010, LS 2011, DL 98/2011 e DL 138/2011, LS 2012, DL 201/2011, DL 95/2012; DL 9/10/2013)

Principal measures affecting the state budget since 2008 (million euros)

Green austerity

Expenditures for environmental

protection (million euros, percentage of

total public expenditure,

percentage of GDP)

• Ministry for Environment from 1.6 billion to 470 million (-70% bw 2008-2013)• Mission “Energy and energy sources diversification” from 100 million  in 2008 

and 2009 dropping to only 8 million in 2010 and 6 million in 2012.• Public  R&D  from  the  state  budget  aimed  at  environment,  transport  and 

energy, dropped respectively by 28.5, 90.3 and 72.1 %. Overall  it dropped by 42.2%.

• Private investments in env protection (air, water, waste): -29%Source: Eurostat (Cofog) and MEF

Green energy incentives

Source: Elaborations on AEEG data and reports, and GSE.

Produced energy and cost of the system of incentives for renewable sources of electricity in Italy – Years 2008-2012

INCENTIVE REGIME

Energy (TWh) Cost (Million €)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CIP 6 (only renewables)

7,8 6,9 6,3 4,77 4,9 948 810 780 880 457

Green Certificates 10,5 17,4 21,2 27,4 31,7 615 1.296 1.580 2.049 1297Fixed “all-in” tariff 0,2 0,7 1,2 2,4 3,3 36 112 212 441 959Energy Account (photovoltaic)

0,2 0,7 2,0 10,9 18,5 110 303 826 3.930 6.293

Total 18,7 25,7 30,7 45,5 58,4 1.709 2.521 3.398 7.300 9.006Of which in A3 948 1.872 2.758 6.632 9.163

Green energy incentives

Expected evolution of the costs for the development of electric renewable sources – 2012-2020 (billion of euros)

• 170 billion during the 15-20 years of incentives • the SEN foresees that starting from 2016 it would be possible to support 

further incentives for 0.5-1.5 billion a year.• Strategy hopes a partial covering of these future incentives through the 

introduction of a carbon tax at European level• In case of overcoming of national objectives, which is about to happen, it is 

possible to consider the hypothesis of selling of excessive production through the mechanism of statistical transfer foreseen by the directive 2009/28/CE

Source: SEN 2013Notes: 2012 base does not include auctions assigned between 2012 and 2013

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Non PV post 2015

Non PV

PV

Energy prices

Electricity prices components for industrial consumers (€/KWh)

Source: Elaboration of Eurostat dataAverage of the MWh consumption classes (less than 20, 20-500, 500-2000, 2000-20.000, 20.000-70.000)

• 2012 saw an average annual increase of electricity prices of 14%. • The electricity price index saw its first reduction at the beginning of 

2013 after seven consecutive years of increase.• The overall A3 component costs 30 euros/MWh. • Only PV incentives:  2006: 2 €cents/MWh consumed. 

2008: 32 cents. 2012: over 20 euros

Energy efficiency incentives• Tax incentives for both service enterprises and the building sector. 55%  detraction  in  income  and  corporate  taxation  for  all  intervention:  efficient 

structures and materials, adoption of solar panels for water heating and new generation boilers and heating systems. 

Now is 65%, to be lowered to 50% in 2015-16 and  36% afterwards.

• White certificates for the industrial sector. At mid-2012 had covered 14.8 Mtoe saved by (mostly) energy service enterprises. 

A  fund  for  subsidized  loans  (interest  rate  at  0.50%)  called  “Kyoto  rotating fund”, is established for financing investments for a total of 600 million euro.

 • A large number of initiatives for sustainable transport.The most relevant has been a  fund for sustainable mobility of 239 million euros 

between 2007 and 2009.

The combined effect of these measures allowed between 2007 and 2010 the saving of about 4 Mtoe per year of final energy (and about 6 of primary energy) fulfilling the objectives fixed for that time of about 3,5 Mtoe (SEN, 2013).

Energy efficiency incentives

Effects on state budget

Personal taxes due to increased employment 4,555Corporate taxes 2,312VAT due to increased consumption 18,302Public incentives -22.817VAT and duties due to less energy consumption -17,781TOTAL -15,492

Economic impact on energy system

Economic value of saved energy* 25,616Economic value of saved CO2** 5,190TOTAL 30,806

OVERALL IMPACT ON COUNTRY SYSTEM 15,377

Effects on industrial development

Increased demand 130,118Increased production 238,427Increased employment (thousands of FTE) 1,635

Overall effects of energy efficiency measures in 2010-2020 (cumulated effects, million euros)

Source: Agenzia per la diffusione delle tecnologie e per l’innovazione, 2013*considering oil price at 0.75$ per barrel and Us$-Euro exchange rate of 1.25**considering a value of 25€ per tCO2

Fossil fuel subsidiesDirect subsidies (4,7 billion):•in 2012,  the non-renewable CIP6 financed 2.34 billion of  incentives  to  fossil  fuel plants (from 3.4 billion  in 2001).  “Assimilated  sources”  cost  about 38 billion  since 2001  (within A3);•1.6  billion  to  energy consuming industries for  their  availability  on  a  sudden  energy interruption in case of need or emergency (100-150 thousand € /yr/MW);•subsidies  to  road transport amount  for  about  500  million  every  year  including  direct transfer, reduced highway tariffs and reduced insurance premiums;•incentives  for old fuel oil centrals to be activated in case of emergency needs without any environmental constraints. 250 million in 2013 (A3).

Indirect subsidies (4,3 billion):•3 billion euros for investments in new roads and highways; and•the  very  low royalties for  oil  drilling  (10%,  while  in  the  rest  of  the  world  they  vary between  20  and  80%).  Should  be  applied  50%  royalties,  they  would  have  generated revenues for 1.3 billion euro.

Source: Legambiente

Photovoltaic incentives

PROS:•Reaching of 20-20-20 objectives.•Reduction of CO2 emissions.•Fostering of energy security by the reduction of imports of fossil fuels.•Activation of relevant investments and the generation of fiscal revenues.•Occupational effects.•Spreading the culture of energy sustainability .

CONS:•Unfair redistributive effect allowing huge profits for foreign investors.•Important hidden taxation in times of crisis.•Inefficient strategy for greenhouse gas reduction.•Lack of development of a national industry.

• Electricity sector 20-20-20 objective reached 8 years in advance: 93 out of 100 TWh from RES (13 GW of PV power installed since 2010, reaching 19 GW).

• Reduction of imports of fossil fuels by 2.5 billion euro a year.

• Flattening of the demand curve on wholesale markets for a value of about 400 million euro a year.

• Investments to install over 19GWp of photovoltaic panels have activated several billion euros of investments which amounted in 2011 to about 1.5 percent of Italian GDP.

• Fiscal revenues for 1.7 billion a year (less the eroded shares of traditional production).

• In 2011, the whole sector employed more than 100.000 people, of which 18.000 new ones (7.000 in components production and 11.000 in marketing and installation). Another 40-45.000 can be attributed to ancillary industries. 

PROS

Too generous incentives, nearly no risk, predictable profits

Efficiency issues

The boom: marginal Ebit of 20% or more. 

…and the bubble along value chain:

•LAND:  rent 20 000 €/ha during 20 years  (sold before for 5 to 10 thousands euros). •PERMISSIONS:  reached  the  value  of  400 thousand euros per Megawatt. Even 100 times higher.•FIRMS: charging 20% over their costs•PANELS: halved their price in 2013

Incentive tariffs, 3kW roof plant vs. 1MW ground plant, 2008-2013, €/KWh

SOLAR: RoE of more than 7.5% guaranteed by 70 €/MWh incentives, they now pay 89.7 €/MWh (KPMG) 

Equity issues

Number MW M€1-20 MW 88.3% 15.4% 14.9%

Over 20 MW 11.7% 84.6% 85.1%

1-200 MW 97.6% 36.6% 23.3%Over 200 MW 2.4% 63.4% 76.7%

Total 478,331 16,420 6,036

Share of the installed plants for different power classes - 2012

• Hidden taxation during a domestic demand crisis:Every year at least  1 billion (6,5 billion*0.2 Roe*0.77) is transferred from 29 

million households and enterprises towards big investors, often foreigners.

• Disproportionately high level of expenditure per Kilowatt-hour of renewable energy produced

Photovoltaic 2008 550 €/MWh Photovoltaic 2012:  333 €/MWhAll-in tariff  (small wind and hydro)  260 €/MWhGreen Certificates  (High power wind and hydro)  82 

€/MWh

Residential tax benefits  65€/MWhWhite Certificates  (92€ per avoided toe = 8 €/MWh)

• All available resources used for non optimized technologies:Grid parity reached in southern regions already in 2013

Efficiency issues

• 80% of components distribution and of plants install. • 50% of modules and inverters.• 6% of silicon wafers.

Industrial developmentShare of national industry on whole life cost (investments, operative costs and fuel, %)

ComEx: Photosensitive semiconductor devices; light-emitting diodes(Million €)

• Which Green Jobs?:Without the development of a photovoltaic industrial sector, jobs 

limited to bricklayers  assemblers and electricians who made the connections. 

Maintenance is then limited to the cleaning of the panels and the grass-cutting of the dedicated area. Without investments in a national industry, this kind of incentives supporting only the demand side and not the supply side, then  never really creating green jobs. 

Lower but longer term incentives, together with related R&D, may have fostered the birth of a national industry

in a sector with secure future development.

Industrial development

• With the progressive reaching of the grid parity these infrastructures are more and more needed for an efficient exploitation of renewable sources.

• Smart grids are particularly urgent in southern regions where the power installed is already higher than the peak demand (25 GW vs. 21 GW). Pilot projects started.

• Fast increase of traditional lines, with the national asset boosting from 45 thousands to 64 thousands kilometers between 2008 and 2009. 

 

(Smart) grids

Even if not made smarter, the grids has been widely enlarged. 

Assets of national transmission network – 2000-2012

Conclusion

Italian energy production and consumption is greener and less import dependent

The system of incentives:Based on a hidden taxationToo generous (with a few)Too quick (to exploit more efficient technologies, to let a national industry develop)Need to push on efficiencyNeed to be further decarbonized

Lack of RnD and Smart Grid Investments

Thank you.

rondinella@istat.itelgrimac@istat.it