Green Building Megatrends

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Green Building & Operations: 2017 Update

Jerry YudelsonPE, MS, MBALEED Fellow

Soprema MeetingNapa, CA

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Green Building Megatrends

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Green Building Megatrends (1)• Certification growth has stopped in North America– LEED/LEED Canada

• Energy efficiency has moved to forefront along with concern over carbon emissions

• PACE financing will grow existing building market– Building pays for upgrades, not owners

• Zero net energy buildings are “next” next thing– Make efficient reflective roofing part of the solution

• Competition among rating systems may grow– UK BREEAM now in the US for existing buildings

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Green Building Megatrends (2)• Cloud computing, Big Data analytics, Internet of

Things and algorithm-based approaches• More cities demand performance disclosure– Easy to do with new platforms & utility data

• Growing interest in healthy buildings & disclosure of ingredients of building materials

• Solar power goes mainstream– Roofing solutions need to consider solar

• Water conservation remains a vital concern

Green Building Rating Systems: Cure or Curse for Sustainable

Operations?It’s instructive to take a step back and look at history of green building, taking a generational perspective – 25 years.

One could say that green building rating systems have been a great success, but one could also say that today there are now major limits to

their effectiveness in inducing change.

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Green Building Was Once Thought to Be

The Best Pathway to a Better Future

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What Happened?

We Started with a Simple System…

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And Wound Up With a Very Complex One

Vs.

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…That Pleases No One

Consider: ~10,500 Credit Interpretations!

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LEED Growth Has Plateaued

US Commercial Building LEED Projects

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With Limited Impact – Thru 2015

US Commercial Building Market Uptake

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Existing Buildings Lag Even More

US Commercial Building Market Uptake

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Existing Buildings Lag Even More

• 5.5 million existing US nonresidential buildings• Annual LEED-EBOM certifications: 500-600• Amount: ~0.01% (1 in 10,000)• No growth in the US• Limited interest because LEED-EBOM fails to

create any real value for building operations– An Instagram photo in a YouTube world

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2016 US LEED Update

• LEED US nonresidential certifications 2016:– no growth vs. 2010-2015 average

• LEED US nonresidential new registrations– 102% growth from 2015, most in 2nd half. Why?– LEEDv4 comes into force on November 1, 2016

• Up-markets (certification):– Interior remodels; retail

• Down-markets (certification)– LEED-CS, Core & Shell (commercial offices)– K12/higher education & healthcare

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2016 Update - Canada

• Total non-residential project certifications: 455->348 (2015/2016)

• Annual LEED Canada EBOM certifications: 33->42 (2015/2016)

• Amount: <0.01% (1 in 10,000)• No real commercial interest because it fails to

create any real value for building owners!• Compare: BOMA Canada’s BOMA BEST

existing building certifications: 5,000+

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LEED History - Canada

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WHY?

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LEEDv4 Uptake

• On November 1, 2016, LEEDv4 became ONLY rating system available, so what happened?

• LEEDv4 registrations: 90 total US projects in November and December, or an annual rate of 540 projects (vs. 4700, 2010-2015 average)

• Prior to this, LEED v4 available for 3 years– Only 6% of new LEED projects registered to use it

• Obvious conclusion: this is a HARD SELL!– …and is going to continue to be a hard sell.

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This Might Be Great Art, But…

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…Is There a “Better Way”?

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Simplification: A “Better Way”

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Green Building: The Conversation Has Moved On from LEED’s

Failings…Now we’re talking about “Net Zero” buildings and “Living Buildings” but not really about greening Existing Buildings – What Can Suppliers Do?

We even have intense discussions about healthy buildings – a great challenge for architects: Why have you been designing “unhealthy” buildings?Will have a large impact also on suppliers!

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LEEDership Means New Objectives

• Radically cut carbon emissions – primary goal– 2030 goals

• Redesign green ratings as management tools for continuous improvement

• Deal separately with healthy building concerns; one system can’t do it all

• Set a Big Hairy Audacious Goals: Increase uptake 10x in 10 years, from 4% to 40% of building area

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How Can We Do This?

• Use Big Data analytics to organize operations• Leverage algorithms to measure sustainability– Self-driving cars

• Cut certification costs 90% to 99% & cut time to certify to one week– Totally change delivery model!– USGBC: no interest in this; will stay niche player

• Rise of competing rating systems & rapid growth of information will strain marketers!

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Implications for Suppliers

• People want your product information• In more ways than you can imagine• Need to respond in totally automated ways• New tools being used by major buyers, e.g.,

GSA in the US• Online catalogs help buyers to sort through all

rating systems, EPDs, HPDs, etc.– Ecomedes now has 150,000 products with all

attributes & is available to GSA buyers

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Take-AwaysTake-Aways

• Rating systems not growing• Fundamental flaws limit uptake• Keep Score New Ways• Cloud-based Big Data Analytics• Adopt Global Best Practices

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GreenBuildConsult.comReinventinggreen-

building.com/blog

@jerryyudelson

Slideshare.net/yudelson

Green Building Megatrends

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