Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda
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Transcript of Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda
Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban
Environmental Research Agenda
Jonathan FinkVice Provost for Research
Arizona State University
Greater Phoenix 2100
• What kind of Phoenix do we want in 2100?• How do we describe Phoenix today?• How do we characterize explosive growth? • What tools can help forecast our future?• Can science help answer these questions?
What’s being done nationally?
• Los Alamos Labs Urban Security Project
• USGS Urban Dynamics Project
• NSF Urban Research Initiative
• Various university institutes
• State/regional “smart growth” initiatives
• Few Coordinated Activities
Plume dispersion over N. Dallas modeled with HOTMAC-RAPTAD-
GASFLOW system
Los Alamos Lab Urban Security
Initiative
USGS Urban
Dynamics Research Program
U.S. urban growth: 1975-1995
What’s missing?
• Coordinated Federal effort
• Federal/state/private/academic collaborations
• Linkage of social, biological, physical
• Scientific foundation for growth debates
• Tools for forecasting impact of growth
NSF Central Arizona – Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research
• Decade-scale monitoring project
• 48 co-investigators from 14 departments
• ASU partners with State, cities, federal labs
• Complement to Baltimore LTER
• Ideal platform for urban modeling/analysis
CAP is one of two urban LTERs
PhoenixBaltimore
young cityrapid growth
aridrugged
libertarian politics
old cityslower growth
humidflat
activist politics
53
CAP LTER Objectives
• Test ecological theory in urban settings
• Better understanding of ecology of cities
• Relate ecological and sociological factors
• Archive large body of scientific data
• Engage public (K-12) in scientific discovery
• Spin off additional research opportunities
LTER-related research projectsat ASU (most > $300K/year)
• Urban airshed modeling (DOE, ADOT)
• Remote sensing of 100 cities (NASA)
• Urban CO2 island (NSF-URI)
• Urban ecology grad. program (IGERT-NSF)
• SW Center for Env. Res. & Policy (EPA)
• Center for sustainable water reuse (EPA)
• SUPERPAVE (US DOT)
• Benign semiconductor manufacturing (NSF)
Why study Phoenix?
• Geographically delimited– Resource constrained (water, power)
– Relatively simple boundary conditions
• Change is very rapid (“An acre an hour”)– Fastest growing county in U.S.
– Second fastest growing & fifth largest city
• Typical of arid urban west– High tech jobs, little mass transit, cheap land
What are the boundary conditions for modeling Phoenix?
• Spatial: city strictly limited by infrastructure
• Population: well documented, rapid growth
• Cultural: built along Hohokam canals (AD 1000)
• Topography/Geology: Basin and Range
• Water: canals, reservoirs, streams, groundwater
• Air: eastward flow, CO2 dome, “brown cloud”
• Land Use: desert agriculture urban
• Economy: mining/agriculture high tech/tourism
Urban fringe sharply defined
Photo courtesy of Ramon Arrowsmith
1912
Maricopa County land use
1934
Maricopa County land use
1955
Maricopa County land use
1975
Maricopa County land use
1995
Maricopa County land use
Remote sensing used for urban resource management
PhoenixADEQ
APS SRP
ADWR
ADHS
ADOC
Intel
Motorola ASU
NIEHS
DOE
ADOTDOT
NSF
EPA
NASA
NOAA
USGS
USFS
DOC
DOD
AIR
HEALTH
HUD
HOUSING
WATER
TRANSPORTATION
MANU-
FACTURING
CLIMATE
URBAN SECURITY
FORESTS
LAND USE
USDABLM
POWER
AGRICULTURE
ADOALincoln Institute
Biosphere
MAG
Greater Phoenix2100
Greater Phoenix 2100 Targets
• Physical Environment – Air (ADEQ) (EPA)– Water (ADWR, ADEQ) (EPA, USGS)– Climate (Biosphere) (NOAA)– Forests (ADOA) (USFS)– Agriculture (ADOA) (USDA)
• Social Environment– Health (ADHS) (NIH)– Housing (ADOC) (HUD)– Education (AZ DOEd) (USDOEd)
• Infrastructure – Land Use (ASLD, Lincoln) (DOI)– Power (APS, SRP) (DOE)– Transportation (ADOT, MAG) (USDOT)– Manufacturing (Intel, Motorola) (US DOC)– Urban Security (LANL, DARPA, Nat Grd)
Greater Phoenix 2100:Which Phoenix do we want?
• Coordinate federal/state/academic efforts
• Link with similar studies of other cities
• Answer questions people care about
• Provide objective information
• Build state-of-the-art forecasting tools
• Start of urban-LTER network across USA