GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMIC FORECAST · 2 2020 ECONOMIC FORECAST OVERVIEW The Greater Oklahoma...

GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMIC FORECAST

OKLAHOMA CITY METRO

2020This report was released in February of

2020 and does not take into account the impacts of COVID-19.

12020 ECONOMIC FORECAST

TABLE OF CONTENTSOverview & Introduction ...................................................................................................................2The U.S. Economic Outlook ...............................................................................................................6The Oklahoma Economic Outlook ....................................................................................................9The Oklahoma City MSA Economic Outlook .................................................................................12Project Announcements ...................................................................................................................24Appendix: Detailed Forecast Tables ...............................................................................................32

L IST OF F IGURESFigure 1: Oklahoma Leading Index and Employment Growth ...............................................................................................................4

Figure 2: Oklahoma Rig Count Change and Employment Growth .......................................................................................................5

Figure 3: U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures .......................................................................................................6

Figure 4: U.S. Nonfarm Employment ............................................................................................................................................................7

Figure 5: U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates.....................................................................................................................................................8

Figure 6: Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment ................................................................................................................................................9

Figure 7: Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment Baseline and Optimistic ....................................................................................................9

Figure 8: Oklahoma Real GDP ....................................................................................................................................................................10

Figure 9: Oklahoma Population ..................................................................................................................................................................10

Figure 10: Oklahoma Per Capita Personal Income ................................................................................................................................. 11

Figure 11: Oklahoma City MSA 2019 Job Gains By Sector ................................................................................................................. 12

Figure 12: Oklahoma City MSA Real Gross Metro Product: Contributions By Sector 2018.......................................................... 13

Figure 13: Oklahoma City MSA Real Gross Metro Product ................................................................................................................. 13

Figure 14: Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment.........................................................................................................................14

Figure 15: Oklahoma City MSA Private Employment ............................................................................................................................. 15

Figure 16: Oklahoma City MSA Goods Employment ............................................................................................................................ 15

Figure 17: Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Natural Gas Employment ...................................................................................................16

Figure 18: Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment ..............................................................................................................17

Figure 19: Oklahoma City MSA Construction Employment ...................................................................................................................18

Figure 20: Oklahoma City MSA Services Employment ......................................................................................................................... 19

Figure 21: Oklahoma City MSA Professional and Business Services Employment .......................................................................... 19

Figure 22: Oklahoma City MSA Education and Health Services Employment ............................................................................... 20

Figure 23: Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment ........................................................................................................... 20

Figure 24: Oklahoma City MSA Population .............................................................................................................................................21

Figure 25: Oklahoma City MSA Per Capita Personal Income ……………………………………………. ........................................................22

Figure 26: Oklahoma City MSA Average Weekly Earnings ...............................................................................................................23

Prepared byRussell R. Evans, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of EconomicsExecutive Director, Steven C. Agee Economic Research and Policy InstituteMeinders School of Business, Oklahoma City University

Eric LongResearch EconomistEconomic Development DivisionGreater Oklahoma City [email protected]

2020 ECONOMIC FORECAST2

OVERVIEWThe Greater Oklahoma City Economic Forecast provides a comprehensive analysis of the national, state and metro economies. It details historic trends, a snapshot of the current situation, as well as a forecast for 2020.

The Oklahoma City metro economy experienced a healthy year in 2019. Strong economic conditions at the national level helped to bring about a third consecutive year of positive job growth in the metro. Overall nonfarm annual job growth was 1.2% or 7,900 jobs in the Oklahoma City MSA. The largest percentage year-over-year job gains were found in the construction (+8.3%), wholesale trade (+4.9%), scientific & technical services (+4.8%), and health services (+3.0%) sectors.

Positive Oklahoma City metro job growth is expected in 2020 but may soften to 0.5%, or approximately 2,900 jobs. The Oklahoma City metro economy is less dependent on the national economy and energy industry than the rest of the state, but it is not wholly immune to the influence of either. So a slowdown in activity could make the local economy vulnerable to national uncertainties or a sluggish energy sector.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES REMAIN LOW

The Oklahoma City metro ended 2019 with an annual average unemployment rate for the year at 3%, with monthly unemployment rates ranging as low as 2.6% and as high as 3.5%. Oklahoma City finished out the year ranked among the lowest 25 unemployment rates for large metros (more than 1 million in population). April 2019 matched the lowest monthly unemployment rate the Oklahoma City metro had experienced in the past 20 years (2.6%). Statewide job losses in the first 12 months of the current oil and gas slowdown are less than half the size experienced in the first year of the 2015-2016 oil and gas cycle.

SHORT AND LONG TERM POPULATION GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE IMPORTANT

Area population growth helps to offset low unemployment and increase the total labor force. When official 2019 U.S. Census population figures are released, it will show that the Oklahoma City metro population has now grown to more than 1.4 million. For the past 15 years, population growth has been an impressive story for the metro. Since 2005, the

Oklahoma City metro has grown by nearly a quarter-million people. The average annual population growth rate from 2005 to 2019 of about 1.5% is double that of the nation. However, over the past three years, there has been a slowing in year-over-year growth. While the long-term growth trends continue to be positive, it reinforces the importance of economic development efforts to recruit new businesses and help existing companies grow. Population gains and job growth are inherently linked.

As recognized over the past several years, national urbanization trends continue to benefit the two largest

metros in the state. This is specifically seen in looking at how much of the state’s economy and growth can be attributed to the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metros. Combined, Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAs now account for 68% of the state’s GDP, 67% of personal income, and 61% of total population (or seven out of every $10 of goods and services, two out of every $3 of personal income and three out of every five people).

Oklahoma City remains the driving engine for population and job growth for the state. The Oklahoma City MSA population is 40% larger than the Tulsa metro and accounts for 35% of the entire population of the state. One out of every three dollars of personal income in the state is earned by people working in the Oklahoma City metro. In 2018, the Oklahoma City MSA accounted for 40% of the state’s Gross State Product or two out of every $5 of goods and services produced in Oklahoma.


VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

According to Dodge MarketLook, in 2019 the total construction value of tracked contract projects (residential, non-residential and non-building infrastructure) in the Oklahoma City MSA was $3.6 billion. That was 8% less than the prior year. The largest year-over-year gains were found in the hotel and motel, schools and colleges, hospital and amusement categories. The largest year-over-year construction value declines were in office and bank, libraries and museums, public buildings and miscellaneous non-residential categories.

For 2020, the total construction value of contract projects is forecasted by Dodge to increase by 2% with positive gains in both non-residential and residential. Decline is expected in non-building (bridges, water supply systems and other). As described in the methodology, the Greater Oklahoma City Outlook for construction employment is determined by the past information contained in the dataset and the econometric specification of the models. Forecasted construction contract detail or proposed infrastructure investment is not incorporated into the baseline forecast.

JOB GROWTH

2019 brought about the end of the fourth year of a five-year economic development program called Forward Oklahoma City V. This fifth iteration of the economic development initiative has provided longer-term strategic focus to the region’s economic development efforts over the past 25 years. Since 2016, 20,048 jobs with payroll above $1 billion and $1.9 billion in capital investment has been announced by Chamber-assisted companies.

As part of that program, overall metrics are tracked for Chamber-assisted companies in different areas: new start-up companies assisted, job growth from existing companies as well as new-to-market firms, wages, capital investment and growth in the tax base. In 2019, Chamber-assisted companies announced plans for the creation of 4,658 jobs with an annual average salary of $69,561. In addition, those same companies announced more than $963 million in capital investment.

The Chamber ended 2019 with 95 active projects in its economic development pipeline. The pipeline tracks companies or projects that are potentially looking to relocate or expand in the Greater Oklahoma City region. The largest number of projects by facility type include manufacturing, office, distribution, aviation and shared-services/call center.


INTRODUCTIONLast year saw a gradual slowdown in the Oklahoma economy. The slowdown was so gradual that many might have missed it. But there is no escaping the reality now. Rig activity in the state is setting record lows with oil prices not expected to see any significant upside until the second half of 2020, at the earliest. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is calling for slow growth in crude oil production in 2020 and 2021 but expects nearly all of that growth to come from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico. Oklahoma’s STACK and SCOOP geology may not be as promising as once thought at current prices. The cumulative effect is to restrict any hope of a recovery in the state’s energy industry to the second half of 2020 and, even then, recovery is expected to be modest in nature.

The most recent oil and natural gas contraction may offer some insight. Energy prices peaked in the fall of 2014 before falling precipitously and moving the sector from boom to bust. In April 2015, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve leading indicators index read -0.8, a prediction that the corresponding coincident index of Oklahoma economic activity would decline by 0.8% over the next six months. By November 2015, statewide employment was down -1.2% from a year ago and Oklahoma moved into recession. In November 2019, the leading indicator index read -0.95 with employment growth just moving into negative territory.

Figure 1: Oklahoma Leading Index and Employment Growth

FRED Graph ObservationsFederal Reserve Economic DataLink: https://fred.stlouisfed.orgHelp: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faqEconomic Research DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

OKSLIND Leading Index for Oklahoma, Percent, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Monthlyobservation_date OKSLIND

1982-01-01 -0.941982-02-01 -1.341982-03-01 -0.521982-04-01 -1.531982-05-01 -2.071982-06-01 -3.551982-07-01 -5.081982-08-01 -4.981982-09-01 -3.871982-10-01 -4.011982-11-01 -4.401982-12-01 -2.911983-01-01 -1.581983-02-01 -0.801983-03-01 0.181983-04-01 0.921983-05-01 2.241983-06-01 3.251983-07-01 3.901983-08-01 3.431983-09-01 3.271983-10-01 3.611983-11-01 4.101983-12-01 3.591984-01-01 2.781984-02-01 3.401984-03-01 3.031984-04-01 2.281984-05-01 1.601984-06-01 1.451984-07-01 0.261984-08-01 1.181984-09-01 1.741984-10-01 0.201984-11-01 -0.101984-12-01 -0.661985-01-01 -0.441985-02-01 -0.251985-03-01 -0.421985-04-01 -0.101985-05-01 0.341985-06-01 0.951985-07-01 -0.101985-08-01 0.771985-09-01 0.931985-10-01 0.451985-11-01 -0.501985-12-01 -0.651986-01-01 -0.671986-02-01 -1.581986-03-01 -2.381986-04-01 -2.001986-05-01 -2.421986-06-01 -1.171986-07-01 -0.461986-08-01 0.351986-09-01 1.031986-10-01 1.821986-11-01 2.811986-12-01 2.611987-01-01 2.161987-02-01 2.561987-03-01 2.471987-04-01 2.341987-05-01 3.031987-06-01 2.761987-07-01 1.871987-08-01 2.221987-09-01 3.271987-10-01 2.811987-11-01 2.661987-12-01 1.541988-01-01 1.901988-02-01 2.691988-03-01 2.381988-04-01 2.221988-05-01 1.291988-06-01 1.761988-07-01 0.701988-08-01 1.211988-09-01 2.911988-10-01 2.571988-11-01 1.741988-12-01 2.031989-01-01 2.401989-02-01 1.961989-03-01 2.361989-04-01 1.741989-05-01 1.931989-06-01 1.051989-07-01 1.581989-08-01 1.341989-09-01 0.821989-10-01 -0.151989-11-01 0.401989-12-01 0.541990-01-01 1.781990-02-01 1.211990-03-01 0.761990-04-01 1.181990-05-01 1.041990-06-01 0.081990-07-01 0.781990-08-01 0.221990-09-01 -0.851990-10-01 -1.971990-11-01 -1.501990-12-01 -0.611991-01-01 0.601991-02-01 0.311991-03-01 1.221991-04-01 1.301991-05-01 0.841991-06-01 0.891991-07-01 0.761991-08-01 0.821991-09-01 1.031991-10-01 1.221991-11-01 0.961991-12-01 1.011992-01-01 0.941992-02-01 0.521992-03-01 0.451992-04-01 1.651992-05-01 1.621992-06-01 2.241992-07-01 2.051992-08-01 1.041992-09-01 1.291992-10-01 2.101992-11-01 1.331992-12-01 1.031993-01-01 1.361993-02-01 0.671993-03-01 0.271993-04-01 -0.241993-05-01 0.791993-06-01 0.631993-07-01 1.221993-08-01 1.261993-09-01 1.831993-10-01 2.061993-11-01 1.201993-12-01 0.941994-01-01 1.451994-02-01 1.541994-03-01 1.271994-04-01 2.351994-05-01 1.861994-06-01 2.501994-07-01 3.051994-08-01 2.741994-09-01 3.131994-10-01 2.431994-11-01 2.561994-12-01 3.601995-01-01 3.211995-02-01 2.481995-03-01 2.001995-04-01 1.041995-05-01 0.441995-06-01 0.701995-07-01 1.021995-08-01 1.271995-09-01 1.431995-10-01 2.191995-11-01 1.431995-12-01 1.831996-01-01 0.801996-02-01 1.331996-03-01 1.701996-04-01 2.061996-05-01 2.161996-06-01 2.531996-07-01 1.191996-08-01 1.191996-09-01 0.581996-10-01 -0.101996-11-01 -0.331996-12-01 1.041997-01-01 0.691997-02-01 1.341997-03-01 2.641997-04-01 1.661997-05-01 1.031997-06-01 1.341997-07-01 1.521997-08-01 1.261997-09-01 2.121997-10-01 2.111997-11-01 2.291997-12-01 1.361998-01-01 1.291998-02-01 0.551998-03-01 0.411998-04-01 0.541998-05-01 0.771998-06-01 0.101998-07-01 -0.261998-08-01 0.651998-09-01 2.011998-10-01 2.181998-11-01 1.901998-12-01 1.811999-01-01 1.451999-02-01 1.741999-03-01 2.061999-04-01 1.841999-05-01 1.951999-06-01 2.791999-07-01 1.641999-08-01 1.711999-09-01 1.511999-10-01 1.451999-11-01 1.521999-12-01 2.632000-01-01 1.582000-02-01 1.472000-03-01 1.302000-04-01 1.162000-05-01 1.482000-06-01 1.502000-07-01 1.122000-08-01 1.772000-09-01 1.052000-10-01 1.472000-11-01 0.932000-12-01 0.692001-01-01 -0.622001-02-01 0.342001-03-01 0.062001-04-01 0.182001-05-01 -1.162001-06-01 -0.112001-07-01 -0.342001-08-01 -1.022001-09-01 -2.262001-10-01 -1.282001-11-01 -0.812001-12-01 -0.322002-01-01 -0.292002-02-01 0.822002-03-01 1.022002-04-01 1.212002-05-01 1.792002-06-01 1.382002-07-01 0.792002-08-01 0.082002-09-01 -0.142002-10-01 -0.472002-11-01 0.032002-12-01 -0.792003-01-01 -0.352003-02-01 0.052003-03-01 -0.232003-04-01 -0.352003-05-01 -0.342003-06-01 0.482003-07-01 1.252003-08-01 1.332003-09-01 2.012003-10-01 2.522003-11-01 2.482003-12-01 1.552004-01-01 2.482004-02-01 2.712004-03-01 2.902004-04-01 1.712004-05-01 2.532004-06-01 2.862004-07-01 2.322004-08-01 2.592004-09-01 1.942004-10-01 1.942004-11-01 1.402004-12-01 1.602005-01-01 0.932005-02-01 1.412005-03-01 2.182005-04-01 1.822005-05-01 1.272005-06-01 1.702005-07-01 1.682005-08-01 1.862005-09-01 2.352005-10-01 1.872005-11-01 2.352005-12-01 2.962006-01-01 2.812006-02-01 1.772006-03-01 1.592006-04-01 1.522006-05-01 2.162006-06-01 0.702006-07-01 0.392006-08-01 0.792006-09-01 0.982006-10-01 -0.322006-11-01 0.412006-12-01 0.632007-01-01 1.022007-02-01 1.282007-03-01 0.932007-04-01 0.912007-05-01 1.902007-06-01 1.542007-07-01 1.592007-08-01 1.242007-09-01 1.652007-10-01 2.222007-11-01 2.292007-12-01 2.462008-01-01 2.542008-02-01 2.142008-03-01 1.872008-04-01 0.162008-05-01 0.312008-06-01 -0.812008-07-01 -0.332008-08-01 -0.232008-09-01 -0.072008-10-01 -1.732008-11-01 -2.742008-12-01 -2.992009-01-01 -3.742009-02-01 -4.262009-03-01 -4.442009-04-01 -3.562009-05-01 -1.802009-06-01 -0.302009-07-01 0.242009-08-01 0.182009-09-01 0.112009-10-01 0.362009-11-01 0.612009-12-01 1.65 Date OK_NF22010-01-01 1.06 Jan-10 1543.32010-02-01 1.36 Feb-10 1542.72010-03-01 3.07 Mar-10 1547.02010-04-01 2.35 Apr-10 1551.62010-05-01 2.81 May-10 1559.52010-06-01 2.86 Jun-10 1562.42010-07-01 2.44 Jul-10 1560.0 2010-08-01 1.69 Aug-10 1557.62010-09-01 0.70 Sep-10 1554.02010-10-01 0.85 Oct-10 1562.82010-11-01 2.09 Nov-10 1562.52010-12-01 2.31 Dec-10 1565.82011-01-01 2.77 Jan-11 1564.5 1.4% 02011-02-01 1.85 Feb-11 1556.2 0.9% 02011-03-01 2.86 Mar-11 1568.7 1.4% 02011-04-01 2.20 Apr-11 1575.9 1.6% 02011-05-01 2.12 May-11 1575.5 1.0% 02011-06-01 1.47 Jun-11 1576.7 0.9% 02011-07-01 0.70 Jul-11 1582.2 1.4% 02011-08-01 0.65 Aug-11 1577.3 1.3% 02011-09-01 1.74 Sep-11 1591.0 2.4% 02011-10-01 2.13 Oct-11 1588.3 1.6% 02011-11-01 1.82 Nov-11 1588.5 1.7% 02011-12-01 1.61 Dec-11 1591.9 1.7% 02012-01-01 1.74 Jan-12 1597.3 2.1% 02012-02-01 1.93 Feb-12 1602.8 3.0% 02012-03-01 1.94 Mar-12 1606.0 2.4% 02012-04-01 2.01 Apr-12 1611.3 2.2% 0 2012-05-01 1.21 May-12 1612.9 2.4% 02012-06-01 0.72 Jun-12 1615.5 2.5% 02012-07-01 0.67 Jul-12 1612.5 1.9% 02012-08-01 0.83 Aug-12 1614.4 2.4% 02012-09-01 1.03 Sep-12 1616.7 1.6% 02012-10-01 1.36 Oct-12 1624.9 2.3% 02012-11-01 0.57 Nov-12 1626.1 2.4% 02012-12-01 1.27 Dec-12 1629.8 2.4% 02013-01-01 1.24 Jan-13 1623.2 1.6% 02013-02-01 1.34 Feb-13 1626.8 1.5% 02013-03-01 0.20 Mar-13 1629.7 1.5% 0 2013-04-01 0.68 Apr-13 1630.7 1.2% 02013-05-01 1.72 May-13 1634.0 1.3% 02013-06-01 1.49 Jun-13 1635.8 1.3% 02013-07-01 0.94 Jul-13 1637.3 1.5% 02013-08-01 0.98 Aug-13 1639.3 1.5% 02013-09-01 1.17 Sep-13 1641.9 1.6% 02013-10-01 1.74 Oct-13 1641.6 1.0% 02013-11-01 1.35 Nov-13 1643.9 1.1% 02013-12-01 1.55 Dec-13 1639.8 0.6% 02014-01-01 2.12 Jan-14 1644.0 1.3% 02014-02-01 2.42 Feb-14 1645.1 1.1% 02014-03-01 2.29 Mar-14 1647.1 1.1% 02014-04-01 2.44 Apr-14 1650.2 1.2% 02014-05-01 2.11 May-14 1651.2 1.1% 02014-06-01 2.06 Jun-14 1654.4 1.1% 02014-07-01 1.98 Jul-14 1657.7 1.2% 02014-08-01 1.97 Aug-14 1659.9 1.3% 02014-09-01 1.05 Sep-14 1660.5 1.1% 02014-10-01 1.82 Oct-14 1664.0 1.4% 02014-11-01 1.62 Nov-14 1668.0 1.5% 02014-12-01 1.38 Dec-14 1672.9 2.0% 02015-01-01 1.14 Jan-15 1675.9 1.9% 02015-02-01 0.71 Feb-15 1673.9 1.8% 02015-03-01 -0.55 Mar-15 1667.6 1.2% 02015-04-01 -0.80 Apr-15 1666.7 1.0% 02015-05-01 0.51 May-15 1668.2 1.0% 02015-06-01 -0.10 Jun-15 1667.0 0.8% 02015-07-01 1.20 Jul-15 1667.2 0.6% 02015-08-01 1.16 Aug-15 1667.0 0.4% 02015-09-01 0.74 Sep-15 1664.3 0.2% 02015-10-01 0.68 Oct-15 1665.1 0.1% 02015-11-01 0.09 Nov-15 1665.3 -0.2% 02015-12-01 -0.19 Dec-15 1663.8 -0.5% 02016-01-01 0.65 Jan-16 1663.4 -0.7% 02016-02-01 0.22 Feb-16 1663.0 -0.7% 02016-03-01 -0.52 Mar-16 1657.0 -0.6% 02016-04-01 0.13 Apr-16 1656.2 -0.6% 02016-05-01 0.18 May-16 1651.9 -1.0% 02016-06-01 0.52 Jun-16 1647.0 -1.2% 02016-07-01 1.10 Jul-16 1650.4 -1.0% 02016-08-01 1.36 Aug-16 1651.9 -0.9% 02016-09-01 0.98 Sep-16 1652.1 -0.7% 02016-10-01 1.66 Oct-16 1649.6 -0.9% 02016-11-01 1.36 Nov-16 1650.6 -0.9% 02016-12-01 1.87 Dec-16 1648.9 -0.9% 02017-01-01 2.02 Jan-17 1646.4 -1.0% 02017-02-01 2.73 Feb-17 1650.0 -0.8% 02017-03-01 2.62 Mar-17 1653.3 -0.2% 02017-04-01 2.10 Apr-17 1659.1 0.2% 02017-05-01 2.12 May-17 1659.9 0.5% 02017-06-01 2.62 Jun-17 1666.2 1.2% 02017-07-01 1.58 Jul-17 1666.3 1.0% 02017-08-01 1.69 Aug-17 1667.7 1.0% 02017-09-01 1.74 Sep-17 1671.1 1.2% 02017-10-01 1.12 Oct-17 1670.1 1.2% 02017-11-01 1.91 Nov-17 1669.7 1.2% 02017-12-01 1.76 Dec-17 1674.1 1.5% 02018-01-01 2.31 Jan-18 1678.3 1.9% 02018-02-01 2.66 Feb-18 1679.6 1.8% 02018-03-01 2.87 Mar-18 1683.7 1.8% 02018-04-01 2.57 Apr-18 1680.3 1.3% 02018-05-01 2.59 May-18 1684.2 1.5% 02018-06-01 3.66 Jun-18 1687.4 1.3% 02018-07-01 2.89 Jul-18 1689.5 1.4% 02018-08-01 2.49 Aug-18 1689.6 1.3% 02018-09-01 1.60 Sep-18 1692.7 1.3% 02018-10-01 1.46 Oct-18 1692.2 1.3% 02018-11-01 1.47 Nov-18 1694.9 1.5% 02018-12-01 1.57 Dec-18 1696.2 1.3% 02019-01-01 0.06 Jan-19 1692.1 0.8% 02019-02-01 -0.28 Feb-19 1691.5 0.7% 02019-03-01 0.64 Mar-19 1692.9 0.5% 02019-04-01 1.37 Apr-19 1695.8 0.9% 02019-05-01 1.72 May-19 1695.1 0.6% 02019-06-01 1.16 Jun-19 1699.9 0.7% 02019-07-01 0.97 Jul-19 1704.0 0.9% 02019-08-01 0.33 Aug-19 1695.9 0.4% 02019-09-01 0.79 Sep-19 1695.6 0.2% 02019-10-01 -0.27 Oct-19 1694.6 0.1% 02019-11-01 -0.95 Nov-19 1690.6 -0.3% 0

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Oklahoma Leading Index and Employment GrowthOK_PR_SA Rig CountJan-10 1193.7 104Feb-10 1193.5 114Mar-10 1196.7 114Apr-10 1202.2 119

May-10 1205.3 124Jun-10 1207.4 125Jul-10 1208.4 128

Aug-10 1210.8 133Sep-10 1210.4 134Oct-10 1218.6 142Nov-10 1218.8 139Dec-10 1221.9 154 Rig Count_Chg Employment Growth BreakevenJan-11 1220.1 166 62 2.2% 0Feb-11 1212.7 160 46 1.6% 0Mar-11 1225.0 161 47 2.4% 0Apr-11 1231.2 172 53 2.4% 0

May-11 1231.5 177 53 2.2% 0Jun-11 1231.3 169 44 2.0% 0Jul-11 1238.6 177 49 2.5% 0

Aug-11 1239.8 192 59 2.4% 0Sep-11 1243.6 196 62 2.7% 0Oct-11 1244.0 196 54 2.1% 0Nov-11 1244.0 195 56 2.1% 0Dec-11 1246.0 197 43 2.0% 0Jan-12 1251.6 195 29 2.6% 0Feb-12 1256.3 205 45 3.6% 0Mar-12 1258.9 198 37 2.8% 0Apr-12 1264.9 199 27 2.7% 0

May-12 1267.0 200 23 2.9% 0Jun-12 1269.4 200 31 3.1% 0Jul-12 1265.7 200 23 2.2% 0

Aug-12 1266.3 201 9 2.1% 0Sep-12 1268.5 198 2 2.0% 0Oct-12 1276.9 189 -7 2.6% 0Nov-12 1277.6 190 -5 2.7% 0Dec-12 1281.3 185 -12 2.8% 0Jan-13 1274.9 185 -10 1.9% 0Feb-13 1277.6 193 -12 1.7% 0Mar-13 1280.2 186 -12 1.7% 0Apr-13 1281.6 182 -17 1.3% 0

May-13 1284.7 188 -12 1.4% 0Jun-13 1287.6 179 -21 1.4% 0Jul-13 1288.9 173 -27 1.8% 0

Aug-13 1290.7 169 -32 1.9% 0Sep-13 1293.7 166 -32 2.0% 0Oct-13 1293.3 175 -14 1.3% 0Nov-13 1295.2 174 -16 1.4% 0Dec-13 1292.3 175 -10 0.9% 0Jan-14 1296.2 182 -3 1.7% 0Feb-14 1297.2 182 -11 1.5% 0Mar-14 1299.2 185 -1 1.5% 0Apr-14 1302.6 191 9 1.6% 0

May-14 1303.2 194 6 1.4% 0Jun-14 1306.3 202 23 1.5% 0Jul-14 1309.8 203 30 1.6% 0

Aug-14 1311.3 210 41 1.6% 0Sep-14 1312.2 214 48 1.4% 0Oct-14 1314.7 208 33 1.7% 0Nov-14 1318.6 211 37 1.8% 0Dec-14 1323.7 209 34 2.4% 0Jan-15 1326.0 198 16 2.3% 0Feb-15 1323.8 162 -20 2.1% 0Mar-15 1318.3 136 -49 1.5% 0Apr-15 1316.5 122 -69 1.1% 0

May-15 1316.5 105 -89 1.0% 0Jun-15 1316.8 106 -96 0.8% 0Jul-15 1316.8 106 -97 0.5% 0

Aug-15 1316.0 105 -105 0.4% 0Sep-15 1312.6 106 -108 0.0% 0Oct-15 1312.2 90 -118 -0.2% 0Nov-15 1311.8 83 -128 -0.5% 0Dec-15 1310.1 86 -123 -1.0% 0Jan-16 1309.2 86 -112 -1.3% 0Feb-16 1308.9 76 -86 -1.1% 0Mar-16 1302.8 67 -69 -1.2% 0Apr-16 1302.4 62 -60 -1.1% 0

May-16 1299.1 57 -48 -1.3% 0Jun-16 1294.8 57 -49 -1.7% 0Jul-16 1298.5 59 -47 -1.4% 0

Aug-16 1299.5 62 -43 -1.3% 0Sep-16 1299.1 66 -40 -1.0% 0Oct-16 1299.7 72 -18 -1.0% 0Nov-16 1300.7 77 -6 -0.8% 0Dec-16 1299.4 82 -4 -0.8% 0Jan-17 1297.3 89 3 -0.9% 0Feb-17 1300.7 102 26 -0.6% 0Mar-17 1303.1 109 42 0.0% 0Apr-17 1309.0 125 63 0.5% 0

May-17 1310.3 121 64 0.9% 0Jun-17 1316.0 130 73 1.6% 0Jul-17 1316.0 134 75 1.3% 0


May-18 1336.4 138 17 2.0% 0Jun-18 1339.1 140 10 1.8% 0Jul-18 1340.8 139 5 1.9% 0

Aug-18 1341.4 139 8 1.8% 0Sep-18 1344.4 138 10 1.8% 0Oct-18 1346.2 142 18 1.8% 0Nov-18 1348.7 145 24 2.0% 0Dec-18 1349.7 141 20 1.8% 0Jan-19 1345.6 132 13 1.2% 0Feb-19 1344.3 120 0 0.9% 0Mar-19 1346.4 112 -10 0.8% 0Apr-19 1349.7 104 -25 1.2% 0

May-19 1348.5 103 -35 0.9% 0Jun-19 1352.1 101 -39 1.0% 0Jul-19 1355.3 96 -43 1.1% 0

Aug-19 1347.3 84 -55 0.4% 0Sep-19 1348.0 71 -67 0.3% 0Oct-19 1349.0 60 -82 0.2% 0Nov-19 1344.1 51 -94 -0.3% 0

-128-94

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-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%

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Oklahoma Rig Count Change and Employment Growth

Rig Count_Chg Employment Growth Breakeven

OK_PR_SA Rig CountJan-10 1193.7 104Feb-10 1193.5 114Mar-10 1196.7 114Apr-10 1202.2 119

May-10 1205.3 124Jun-10 1207.4 125Jul-10 1208.4 128


May-11 1231.5 177 53 2.2% 0Jun-11 1231.3 169 44 2.0% 0Jul-11 1238.6 177 49 2.5% 0


May-12 1267.0 200 23 2.9% 0Jun-12 1269.4 200 31 3.1% 0Jul-12 1265.7 200 23 2.2% 0


May-13 1284.7 188 -12 1.4% 0Jun-13 1287.6 179 -21 1.4% 0Jul-13 1288.9 173 -27 1.8% 0


May-14 1303.2 194 6 1.4% 0Jun-14 1306.3 202 23 1.5% 0Jul-14 1309.8 203 30 1.6% 0


May-15 1316.5 105 -89 1.0% 0Jun-15 1316.8 106 -96 0.8% 0Jul-15 1316.8 106 -97 0.5% 0


May-16 1299.1 57 -48 -1.3% 0Jun-16 1294.8 57 -49 -1.7% 0Jul-16 1298.5 59 -47 -1.4% 0


May-17 1310.3 121 64 0.9% 0Jun-17 1316.0 130 73 1.6% 0Jul-17 1316.0 134 75 1.3% 0


May-18 1336.4 138 17 2.0% 0Jun-18 1339.1 140 10 1.8% 0Jul-18 1340.8 139 5 1.9% 0


May-19 1348.5 103 -35 0.9% 0Jun-19 1352.1 101 -39 1.0% 0Jul-19 1355.3 96 -43 1.1% 0

Aug-19 1347.3 84 -55 0.4% 0Sep-19 1348.0 71 -67 0.3% 0Oct-19 1349.0 60 -82 0.2% 0Nov-19 1344.1 51 -94 -0.3% 0

-128-94

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-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%

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Rig Count_Chg Employment Growth BreakevenOklahoma Leading Index Employment Growth


Figure 2: Oklahoma Rig Count Change and Employment Growth

OK_PR_SA Rig CountJan-10 1193.7 104Feb-10 1193.5 114Mar-10 1196.7 114Apr-10 1202.2 119

May-10 1205.3 124Jun-10 1207.4 125Jul-10 1208.4 128


May-11 1231.5 177 53 2.2% 0Jun-11 1231.3 169 44 2.0% 0Jul-11 1238.6 177 49 2.5% 0


May-12 1267.0 200 23 2.9% 0Jun-12 1269.4 200 31 3.1% 0Jul-12 1265.7 200 23 2.2% 0


May-13 1284.7 188 -12 1.4% 0Jun-13 1287.6 179 -21 1.4% 0Jul-13 1288.9 173 -27 1.8% 0


May-14 1303.2 194 6 1.4% 0Jun-14 1306.3 202 23 1.5% 0Jul-14 1309.8 203 30 1.6% 0


May-15 1316.5 105 -89 1.0% 0Jun-15 1316.8 106 -96 0.8% 0Jul-15 1316.8 106 -97 0.5% 0


May-16 1299.1 57 -48 -1.3% 0Jun-16 1294.8 57 -49 -1.7% 0Jul-16 1298.5 59 -47 -1.4% 0


May-17 1310.3 121 64 0.9% 0Jun-17 1316.0 130 73 1.6% 0Jul-17 1316.0 134 75 1.3% 0


May-18 1336.4 138 17 2.0% 0Jun-18 1339.1 140 10 1.8% 0Jul-18 1340.8 139 5 1.9% 0


May-19 1348.5 103 -35 0.9% 0Jun-19 1352.1 101 -39 1.0% 0Jul-19 1355.3 96 -43 1.1% 0

Aug-19 1347.3 84 -55 0.4% 0Sep-19 1348.0 71 -67 0.3% 0Oct-19 1349.0 60 -82 0.2% 0Nov-19 1344.1 51 -94 -0.3% 0

-128-94

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-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%

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Rig Count_Chg Employment Growth Breakeven

Not surprisingly, the pattern observed in the leading indicators index and its relationship with statewide employment follows closely the patterns in the state’s oil and natural gas industry. Changes in rig activity often lead economic cycles in the state. In February 2015, statewide rig counts fell below their year-ago levels, reaching a net change of -128 by November. Statewide employment moved below year-ago levels in the fall of 2015, reaching a low of -1.7% below year-ago levels in June 2016. Oklahomans will remember well this period of statewide recession and budget shortfalls.

It remains to be seen the extent to which 2016 is a predictor for 2020. To argue that Oklahoma can reject the prediction of the leading indicators index and brush off a severe contraction in the energy industry is to argue that this time is different. It is difficult to accept this argument. However, what is different is the relative strength of the U.S. economy. In 2016, the U.S. economy grew well below trend at just 1.6%. The ability of the Oklahoma economy to withstand 2020 may well depend on the ability of the U.S. economy to extend its record-breaking expansion one more year.


THE U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Year Real Gross Domestic Product, Annual Growth Personal Consumption Expenditures, Growth 2010 2.6 1.72011 1.6 1.92012 2.2 1.52013 1.8 1.52014 2.5 3.02015 2.9 3.72016 1.6 2.72017 2.4 2.62018 2.9 3.02019 2.3 2.62020 2.1 2.82021 2 2.4

2.6

1.6

2.2

1.8

2.5

2.9

1.6

2.4

2.9

2.32.1 2

1.71.9

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAnnnn

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U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real Gross Domestic Product, Annual Growth Personal Consumption Expenditures, Growth

Figure 3: U.S. Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures

The current U.S. economic expansion is now the longest on record exceeding the 120-month record previously set from 1991 to 2001. Though record-breaking in length, the expansion has been consistently modest with annual growth never topping 3% and only exceeding a 2.5% growth rate in 2010, 2015 and 2018. Most professional macroeconomic forecasters predict that recession fears are adequately contained and the U.S. economy is likely to experience trend growth near 2% in 2020. The forecast presented below represents the baseline expectation of Macroeconomic Advisors by “IHS Markit” that the U.S. economy will expand by 2.1% in 2020 led by a 2.8% expansion in personal consumption expenditures. This view is in contrast to multiple surveys of CFOs who expect a slowdown in 2020. While outright recession fears may indeed be contained, downside risks still outnumber upside risks leaving Oklahoma to hope for the best U.S. case to materialize and provide external strength against our internal weakness.


Year Unemployment Rate Nonfarm Employment (monthly average, millions)2010 9.6 130.42011 8.9 131.92012 8.1 134.22013 7.4 136.42014 6.2 138.92015 5.3 141.82016 4.9 144.32017 4.4 146.62018 3.9 149.12019 3.7 151.4 Civilian Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2020 3.4 153.32021 3.5 154.4

https://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/national-employment-monthly-update.aspxhttps://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrvhttps://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Year Nonfarm Employment (monthly average, millions)2009 130.72010 131.62011 133.72012 136.02013 138.32014 141.32015 144.12016 146.32017 148.52018 1492019 151.32020 1532021 12022 1

3.9 3.7 3.4 3.5

146.6

149.1151.4

153.3

154.4

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125.0

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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U.S. NonFarm Employment

Unemployment Rate Nonfarm Employment (monthly average, millions)

Figure 4: U.S. Nonfarm Employment

The baseline expectation for the U.S. labor market is a modest expansion in nonfarm employment to accompany modest economic growth. The labor market is expected to add an average of 158,000 new jobs per month, or just enough growth to support new labor market entrants. Headline unemployment rates are expected to stay historically low, averaging close to 3.5% for the year. The absence of significant upward pressure on wages in spite of a very low unemployment rate suggests that this headline number may be overstating the degree to tightness in the market. To date, the expansion has struggled not only to support a labor market tight enough to put significant upward pressure on wages but also to support a labor market that brings a significant share of the working-age population back to the labor force. The implication of a labor market that may have more slack than the headline unemployment rate would suggest a longer path for monetary policy to be relatively accommodating.


U.S. Infaltion and Interest RatesYear Core PCE Price Index, Growth Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Note Yield

2010 1.0 0.17 3.212011 1.7 0.10 2.792012 2.1 0.14 1.82013 1.8 0.11 2.352014 1.8 0.09 2.542015 1.8 0.13 2.142016 2.2 0.04 1.842017 1.8 1.00 2.332018 2.1 1.83 2.912019 2.2 2.17 2.132020 2.4 1.64 1.642021 2.2 2.02 2.02

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-charthttps://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-charthttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCCRV1A225NBEA

0.0

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates

Core PCE Price Index, Growth Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Note Yield

Figure 5: U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates

The lack of upward pressure on wages not only indicates some hidden slack in labor markets but also the likely absence of significant inflationary pressure generally. This expectation is reflected in the forecasted growth of the core PCE price index just above the Federal Reserve target of 2%. With inflationary pressures contained and downside risks to economic growth lingering, the baseline expectation is that the Federal Reserve will hold policy near current levels through 2020. The baseline forecast is for the federal funds rate to average 1.64 in 2020 consistent with the current range of 1.5 to 1.75 targeted by policymakers. Recent research published by former Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke suggests that except in the most severe alternative scenarios, the Fed’s current toolbox of interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and forward guidance should provide sufficient response. The hope, of course, is not that he’s right but that we never have to find out if he’s wrong.


THE OKLAHOMA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKThe introduction to the outlook set the theme for the 2020 outlook – a year on the brink of recession. The baseline forecast anticipates challenging conditions in the state with a basket of indicators oscillating between no growth and mild contraction. Conditions are likely to be the most stressed in the middle of the year with some improvement materializing in the second half. Average monthly nonfarm payrolls are projected to be down -0.2% in 2020 before rebounding to 1.1% growth in 2021. It is worth emphasizing again that, in some ways, the baseline expectation is a best-case scenario as it assumes enough strength in the national economy to counter some of the specific weaknesses present in the Oklahoma economy.

2010 1555.82011 1578.1 1.4%2012 1614.2 2.3%2013 1635.3 1.3%2014 1656.3 1.3%2015 1667.7 0.7%2016 1653.5 -0.8%2017 1662.8 0.6%2018 1687.4 1.5%2019 1694.9 0.4%2020 1691.7 -0.2%2021 1710.3 1.1%

1.5%

0.4%

-0.2%

1.1%

1,687.4 1,694.9 1,691.71,710.3

-2.0%

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0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

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1500.0

1550.0

1600.0

1650.0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Gro

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Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment

Figure 6: Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment

In some ways, the baseline case (average monthly nonfarm payrolls down -0.2% in 2020) seems unrealistically optimistic given the facts presented in the introduction. Indeed, forecasting a turn in economic activity is a challenge because even though the data identify a turn ahead, the available information often understates the magnitude of that turn. An alternative approach to forecasting the nonfarm data series would be to forecast the major sectoral components of the series, then sum the forecasts to create a new forecast of nonfarm employment. Using this approach, the forecast would predict nonfarm average monthly payrolls to contract by 0.5%. The graphic below compares the alternative trajectories.

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Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment: Baseline and Optimistic

Nonfarm (optimistic) Nonfarm (baseline)

Figure 7: Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment: Baseline and Optimistic


Figure 8: Oklahoma Real Gross Domestic Product

OK Personal Income Annualized Growth OK Population Annualized Growth OK Per Cap Income Annualized Growth OK Real GDPAnnualized

Growth2010:Q1 131912.9 3746415 35210 156125.7 101,095.86$ 2010:Q2 136244.1 13.8% 3755549 1.0% 36278 12.7% 159446.9 8.8% 102,351.71$ 2010:Q3 139501.1 9.9% 3763798 0.9% 37064 9.0% 160642.1 3.0% 103,160.87$ 2010:Q4 141912.9 7.1% 3771423 0.8% 37628 6.2% 160691.2 0.1% 102,763.45$ 2011:Q1 143643 5.0% 3777754 0.7% 38023 4.3% 159088.8 -3.9% 101,775.58$ 2011:Q2 146916.6 9.4% 3784207 0.7% 38824 8.7% 163350.7 11.2% 103,646.73$ 2011:Q3 149684.5 7.8% 3792174 0.8% 39472 6.8% 167155.4 9.6% 105,560.72$ 2011:Q4 151314.2 4.4% 3800380 0.9% 39816 3.5% 171017.2 9.6% 107,587.31$ 2012:Q1 155849.7 12.5% 3807576 0.8% 40931 11.7% 172504.2 3.5% 107,678.28$ 2012:Q2 157679.9 4.8% 3814730 0.8% 41334 4.0% 173927.7 3.3% 107,813.11$ 2012:Q3 157137.8 -1.4% 3823716 0.9% 41096 -2.3% 172876.1 -2.4% 107,074.96$ 2012:Q4 162748.1 15.1% 3833204 1.0% 42457 13.9% 174627 4.1% 107,335.07$ 2013:Q1 163412.3 1.6% 3840823 0.8% 42546 0.8% 176670.6 4.8% 108,615.65$ 2013:Q2 165799 6.0% 3848740 0.8% 43079 5.1% 176230.6 -1.0% 107,885.28$ 2013:Q3 166914.5 2.7% 3856805 0.8% 43278 1.9% 176757.6 1.2% 107,811.89$ 2013:Q4 168127.6 2.9% 3863907 0.7% 43512 2.2% 180747.6 9.3% 110,093.35$ 2014:Q1 173142.1 12.5% 3869512 0.6% 44745 11.8% 180721.2 -0.1% 109,834.20$ 2014:Q2 176179.1 7.2% 3875204 0.6% 45463 6.6% 184950.5 9.7% 111,960.03$ 2014:Q3 178409.7 5.2% 3883117 0.8% 45945 4.3% 190941.6 13.6% 115,068.96$ 2014:Q4 178756.7 0.8% 3891844 0.9% 45931 -0.1% 194343.1 7.3% 116,491.70$ 2015:Q1 174707 -8.8% 3898709 0.7% 44812 -9.4% 196699.7 4.9% 117,610.54$ 2015:Q2 172715.4 -4.5% 3905874 0.7% 44219 -5.2% 193671.6 -6.0% 116,158.82$ 2015:Q3 173193.9 1.1% 3912508 0.7% 44267 0.4% 196962.4 7.0% 118,212.90$ 2015:Q4 171352 -4.2% 3917320 0.5% 43742 -4.7% 196274.8 -1.4% 117,901.65$ 2016:Q1 164778.3 -14.5% 3920790 0.4% 42027 -14.8% 192688.7 -7.1% 115,998.33$ 2016:Q2 164087.9 -1.7% 3924525 0.4% 41811 -2.0% 190662.8 -4.1% 115,434.28$ 2016:Q3 164161.7 0.2% 3928076 0.4% 41792 -0.2% 189127 -3.2% 114,520.63$ 2016:Q4 164648 1.2% 3930303 0.2% 41892 1.0% 187960.5 -2.4% 113,936.17$ 2017:Q1 168189.4 8.9% 3931130 0.1% 42784 8.8% 189410.4 3.1% 114,801.14$ 2017:Q2 170902.3 6.6% 3931817 0.1% 43467 6.5% 192224.7 6.1% 115,677.22$ 2017:Q3 172595.4 4.0% 3934418 0.3% 43868 3.7% 192187.6 -0.1% 115,195.06$ 2017:Q4 174702.4 5.0% 3937465 0.3% 44369 4.6% 192354.1 0.3% 115,092.50$ 2018:Q1 179830.1 12.3% 3939384 0.2% 45649 12.0% 194788.7 5.2% 115,908.86$ 2018:Q2 181192.2 3.1% 3941554 0.2% 45970 2.8% 196127.1 2.8% 116,467.33$ 2018:Q3 183034.8 4.1% 3944950 0.3% 46397 3.8% 196680.2 1.1% 116,337.51$ 2018:Q4 185150.4 4.7% 3948107 0.3% 46896 4.4% 198502.4 3.8% 117,149.73$ 2019:Q1 188583.3 7.6% 3949886 0.2% 47744 7.4% 199759.8 2.6% 118,049.72$ 2019:Q2 188842.9 0.6% 3951851 0.2% 47786 0.4% 201099.4 2.7% 118,507.54$ 2019:Q3 190276.6 3.1% 3955108 0.3% 48109 2.7% 202058.6 1.9% 118,962.97$ 2019:Q4 189299 -2.0% 3957386.6 0.2% 47834.34603 -2.3% 201700.6 -0.7% 119,212.90$ 2020:Q1 187683.3 -3.4% 3959786.89 0.2% 47397.32345 -3.6% 198915.8 -5.4% 117,901.65$ 2020:Q2 186824.4 -1.8% 3962325.65 0.3% 47150.18817 -2.1% 195859.3 -6.0% 115,998.33$ 2020:Q3 187112.5 0.6% 3965016.77 0.3% 47190.84706 0.3% 197187.0 2.7% 116,467.33$ 2020:Q4 188265.4 2.5% 3967871.25 0.3% 47447.45687 2.2% 197560.5 0.8% 116,337.51$ 2021:Q1 189739.9 3.2% 3970897.23 0.3% 47782.6267 2.9% 199381.0 3.7% 117,149.73$ 2021:Q2 191816.2 4.4% 3974100.11 0.3% 48266.57474 4.1% 201687.9 4.7% 118,049.72$ 2021:Q3 193874.4 4.4% 3977482.62 0.3% 48742.99111 4.0% 203007.4 2.6% 118,507.54$ 2021:Q4 195895.4 4.2% 3981045 0.4% 49207.02981 3.9% 204366.5 2.7% 118,962.97$

1.9%

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Oklahoma Real GDP

Series2 Series1



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Oklahoma Real GDP

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Oklahoma Real GDP

Series2 Series1Annualized Growth OK Real GDP

OK

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th

Figure 9: Oklahoma Population

2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4OK Personal Income 190,276.6 189,299.0 187,683.3 186,824.4 187,112.5 188,265.4 189,739.9 191,816.2 193,874.4 195,895.4 Annualized Growth 3.1% -2.0% -3.4% -1.8% 0.6% 2.5% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2%OK Population 3,955,108 3,957,387 3,959,787 3,962,326 3,965,017 3,967,871 3,970,897 3,974,100 3,977,483 3,981,045 Annualized Growth 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%OK Per Cap Income 48,109 47,834 47,397 47,150 47,191 47,447 47,783 48,267 48,743 49,207 Annualized Growth 2.7% -2.3% -3.6% -2.1% 0.3% 2.2% 2.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%OK Real GDP 202,058.6 200,000.5 198,915.8 195,859.3 197,187.0 197,560.5 199,381.0 201,687.9 203,007.4 204,366.5 Annualized Growth 1.9% -4.0% -2.2% -6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 3.7% 4.7% 2.6% 2.7%

Oklahoma Quarterly Income, Population, GDP

0.3%

0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

3,967,871

3,981,045

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

3,940,000

3,945,000

3,950,000

3,955,000

3,960,000

3,965,000

3,970,000

3,975,000

3,980,000

3,985,000

2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4

Oklahoma Population

Annualized Growth OK Population

2.7%

-2.3%-3.6%

-2.1%

0.3%

2.2%2.9%

4.1% 4.0% 3.9%47,834

49,207

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4

Oklahoma Per Capita Personal Income

Annualized Growth Per Capita Income

Popu

latio

n

Ann

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ed G

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th

Real gross state product in Oklahoma follows close changes in oil prices and the value of production in Oklahoma’s energy industry. Beyond shifts in the energy industry, real gross state production fluctuates with statewide employment. Oklahoma’s economy grew at 1.9% in the third quarter of 2019 but likely fell flat in the fourth quarter. Real GDP is expected to contract in the first half of 2020 before recovering into year-end before returning to modest growth (3.5%) in 2021. The pattern predicted for state GDP meets the technical definition of a recession, but GDP alone is an inadequate measure of state economic health. As 2020 progresses, the expectation is that the state’s economy will feel somewhere between stagnant and mild contraction. But this reality places the state in a precarious situation with any additional economic adversity potentially sending the state into an outright recession.

Oklahoma population growth has been flat for several years, belying the reality that much of the rural areas of the state are losing population to the metro areas. Recent data suggest that even metro area population may be slowing. It remains to be seen whether the slowdown is transitory or related to long-term fundamentals. Regardless, the developing economic weakness that is expected to carry much of 2020 will further limit the potential for population gains. The statewide population is expected to grow at annualized rates of less than 0.5% through the forecast horizon, approaching the 4 million population threshold by late 2021.


2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4OK Personal Income 190,276.6 189,299.0 187,683.3 186,824.4 187,112.5 188,265.4 189,739.9 191,816.2 193,874.4 195,895.4 Annualized Growth 3.1% -2.0% -3.4% -1.8% 0.6% 2.5% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2%OK Population 3,955,108 3,957,387 3,959,787 3,962,326 3,965,017 3,967,871 3,970,897 3,974,100 3,977,483 3,981,045 Annualized Growth 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%OK Per Cap Income 48,109 47,834 47,397 47,150 47,191 47,447 47,783 48,267 48,743 49,207 Annualized Growth 2.7% -2.3% -3.6% -2.1% 0.3% 2.2% 2.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%OK Real GDP 202,058.6 200,000.5 198,915.8 195,859.3 197,187.0 197,560.5 199,381.0 201,687.9 203,007.4 204,366.5 Annualized Growth 1.9% -4.0% -2.2% -6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 3.7% 4.7% 2.6% 2.7%

Oklahoma Quarterly Income, Population, GDP

0.3%

0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

3,967,871

3,981,045

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

3,940,000

3,945,000

3,950,000

3,955,000

3,960,000

3,965,000

3,970,000

3,975,000

3,980,000

3,985,000

2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4

Oklahoma Population

Annualized Growth OK Population

2.7%

-2.3%-3.6%

-2.1%

0.3%

2.2%2.9%

4.1% 4.0% 3.9%47,834

49,207

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4

Oklahoma Per Capita Personal Income

Annualized Growth Per Capita Income

Figure 10: Oklahoma Per Capita Personal Income

Per C

apita

Per

sona

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ome

Ann

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Oklahoma’s personal income growth is expected to suffer under the weight of the current energy industry contraction. Declining personal income combined with a slowly growing statewide population will combine to put downward pressure on per capita personal income through the first half of 2020. Consistent with the expectation of a mild recovery developing in the second half of the year, per capita income returns to growth heading into 2021. By the end of 2021, Oklahoma’s per capita personal income is expected to exceed $49,000.


THE OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMIC OUTLOOKIn the Oklahoma City metro, average monthly nonfarm payrolls in 2019 increased by 1.2% or an additional 7,900 jobs over the prior year. Modest job losses in mining, finance, information and leisure were offset by gains in other industries. The most significant gains occurred in trade, government, professional services and construction. Employment gains in the trade sector are not a reflection of increased retail trade employment as that industry continues to trend towards a smaller physical presence. This is in part due to online retail sales limiting local retail trade employment gains. Instead, the trade job gains are concentrated in the transportation, warehousing and utilities industry. In the professional services sector, job gains were concentrated in the scientific and technical services industry with employment in the subsector of management and administrative services mostly flat.

Year OKC_NF OKC_PRI OKC_GOODS OKC_SVCS OKC_MIN OKC_CON OKC_MFG OKC_TTU OKC_WHO OKC_RET OKC_TWU OKC_INF OKC_FIN OKC_PBS OKC_SCIEN OKC_MGMT OKC_ADMIN OKC_EDHLTH OKC_HLTH OKC_LEIS OKC_OTHE OKC_GOV OKC_FED OKC_STATEOKC_LOCAL2010 566.9 444.9 70.5 496.4 14.3 25.2 31.0 97.1 20.4 60.1 16.6 9.6 31.0 73.2 28.3 7.3 37.6 83.2 74.8 57.6 22.7 122.0 28.1 41.7 52.22011 580.1 458.4 75.8 504.3 17.0 25.9 32.9 99.9 21.4 61.2 17.3 9.0 30.9 75.8 29.1 7.8 38.9 84.4 75.5 60.0 22.7 121.7 28.4 42.1 51.32012 594.7 472.2 81.6 513.0 20.0 26.6 35.1 102.8 22.6 62.4 17.8 8.6 31.8 76.8 30.0 8.8 38.1 86.4 77.4 61.7 22.4 122.5 28.2 42.4 51.92013 608.7 484.1 84.5 524.2 20.8 27.2 36.5 106.9 23.7 64.2 18.9 8.2 32.4 77.6 29.9 9.0 38.7 88.0 78.7 64.2 22.4 124.6 27.6 43.5 53.62014 620.5 495.8 87.5 533.0 21.6 28.4 37.5 109.4 24.3 66.0 19.1 8.1 33.2 78.7 30.2 9.4 39.1 88.9 79.5 65.9 24.0 124.7 26.9 44.4 53.52015 630.4 503.4 86.6 543.7 19.9 29.3 37.4 111.7 24.5 67.7 19.6 8.3 33.4 79.7 31.2 9.5 38.9 90.5 81.1 68.0 25.2 127.0 27.4 45.3 54.32016 629.8 500.8 80.4 549.4 16.5 29.3 34.5 112.0 23.8 68.2 19.9 8.2 33.2 79.6 32.4 9.5 37.8 91.2 81.9 70.0 26.4 129.0 28.3 46.2 54.52017 635.7 507.4 81.6 554.2 18.7 29.4 33.4 111.5 23.9 66.7 20.9 7.7 33.3 81.5 33.2 9.8 38.5 92.0 83.0 71.7 28.2 128.3 28.8 45.8 53.72018 649.6 520.7 85.9 563.7 21.8 30.2 33.9 112.5 24.2 66.2 22.2 7.4 33.4 85.0 34.3 10.3 40.5 93.2 83.7 74.2 29.2 128.9 29.2 45.8 54.02019 657.5 526.9 88.5 569.1 21.6 32.8 34.1 113.9 25.4 65.5 23.0 7.2 33.2 86.9 35.9 10.4 40.6 93.5 86.2 74.1 29.7 130.6 29.5 46.3 54.92020 660.4 529.4 85.6 575.1 20.3 32.3 33.0 114.1 25.4 64.8 23.9 7.0 33.4 86.8 36.4 10.7 39.7 94.5 86.8 75.8 30.4 131.6 30.3 46.7 54.72021 671.2 538.8 86.8 584.4 21.3 33.3 32.2 115.9 26.2 64.8 24.9 6.8 33.6 88.7 37.4 10.9 40.4 95.7 88.1 78.0 31.2 132.3 30.5 47.0 54.8

OKC_NF OKC_PRI OKC_GOODS OKC_SVCS OKC_MIN OKC_CON OKC_MFG OKC_TTU OKC_WHO OKC_RET OKC_TWU OKC_INF OKC_FIN OKC_PBS OKC_SCIEN OKC_MGMT OKC_ADMIN OKC_EDHLTH OKC_HLTH OKC_LEIS OKC_OTHE OKC_GOV OKC_FED OKC_STATEOKC_LOCAL2019 Job Gains 7.9 6.2 2.6 5.3 -0.2 2.5 0.2 1.3 1.2 -0.7 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.5 -0.1 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.5 0.9

2019 Job Gains 2019 Job GainsOKC_NF 7.9 Nonfarm 7942OKC_PRI 6.2 Mining -208OKC_GOODS 2.6 Finance -167OKC_SVCS 5.3 Information -150OKC_MIN -0.2 Leisure -58OKC_CON 2.5 Manufacturing 242OKC_MFG 0.2 Ed-Health 283OKC_TTU 1.3 Other 542OKC_WHO 1.2 Trade, Transport, Utilities 1342OKC_RET -0.7 Government 1700OKC_TWU 0.8 Professional Services 1900OKC_INF -0.1 Construction 2517OKC_FIN -0.2OKC_PBS 1.9OKC_SCIEN 1.7OKC_MGMT 0.1OKC_ADMIN 0.1 Mining -208OKC_EDHLTH 0.3 Finance -167OKC_HLTH 2.5 Information -150OKC_LEIS -0.1 Leisure -58OKC_OTHER 0.5 Manufacturing 242OKC_GOV 1.7 Ed-Health 283OKC_FED 0.3 Other 542OKC_STATE 0.5 Trade, Transport, Utilities 1,342OKC_LOCAL 0.9 Government 1,700

Professional Services 1,900Construction 2,517

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-208 -167 -150 -58

242 283542

1,3421,700 1,900

2,517

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Oklahoma City MSA 2019 Job Gains By Sector

Figure 11: Oklahoma City MSA 2019 Job Gains By Sector

Cha

nges

in E

mpl

oym

ent


Figure 12: Oklahoma City MSA Real Gross Metro Product: Contributions by Sector 2018

Description 2018

MSA GDP Total 79716845

Sector GDPOil and Gas 22733380Undisclosed 13454192Government 10965446Financial Services 9068796Prof. Services 7234199Retail Trade 4149685Manufacturing 3864405Tranport/Warehouse 3122978Leisure 2829984Construction 2293780

$22,733,380

$13,454,192

$10,965,446$9,068,796

$7,234,199

$4,149,685 $3,864,405 $3,122,978 $2,829,984 $2,293,780

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

Valu

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Pro

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ion

($ T

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, Cha

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20

12)

Oklahoma City MSA Real Gross Metro Product: Contributions by Sector 2018

Valu

e of

Pro

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ion

($ T

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ands

, Cha

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201

2)Gross metro product is a measure of the value of production within an economy. Industries with a very high value of production per worker can exert a large influence over measures of gross metro product even if the industry accounts for a relatively small share of local employment. In contrast, industries with a lower value of production per worker may have a large influence on employment metrics but relatively little influence on metro product. In Oklahoma City, the industries with the greatest influence over measures of production are the oil and gas industry and the public sector. In contrast, large employment sectors like retail trade and leisure services exert a much smaller influence on production. For context, the graph below gives each industry’s contribution to Oklahoma City’s $80 billion economy in 2018.

It’s not clear that GDP is the critical measure of economic health that headline news often suggests. GDP is a measure of production rather than welfare and given recent developments in the economy some argue the correlation between growing GDP and improving social welfare is failing. At the local level, measures of GDP are best viewed as one metric in a basket of metrics describing regional economic health. Given the weight ascribed to the oil and gas industry in Oklahoma City’s GDP (or gross metro product), it is difficult to imagine the current contraction in the energy industry not being reflected in local measures of production. Indeed, the forecast anticipates a dip in Oklahoma City gross metro product in 2020 (down 1.3%) before rebounding in 2021 (up 2.7%). The pattern speaks to the theme of the forecast – a year on the brink of recession. It is also consistent with the current expectation that the contraction of 2020 will be similar to, albeit slightly milder than, the contraction of 2016.

4.0%

6.4%

3.9% 4.7%

7.1%

-1.6%

0.9%

3.1%

7.5%

-1.3%

2.7%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ann

ual G

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Real

Gro

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Pro

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($Th

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Oklahoma City Real Gross Metro Product

Annual Growth Real Gross Metro Product

Figure 13: Oklahoma City MSA Real Gross Metro Product


Year OKC_NF Annual Growth2010 566.92011 580.1 2.3%2012 594.7 2.5%2013 608.7 2.4%2014 620.5 1.9%2015 630.4 1.6%2016 629.8 -0.1%2017 635.7 0.9%2018 649.6 2.2%2019 657.5 1.2%2020 660.4 0.5%2021 671.2 1.6%

1.2%0.5%

1.6%

657.5 660.4 671.2

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

500.0

550.0

600.0

650.0

700.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ann

ual G

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Non

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, Mon

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)

Oklahoma City MSA Nonfarm Employment

Figure 14: Oklahoma City Nonfarm Employment

The Oklahoma City economy is less dependent on the national economy than Tulsa and less dependent on the energy industry than the rest of the state (when it comes to employment). But it is not wholly immune to the influence of either. What economic strength is found in 2020 will be found in Oklahoma City and, to a lesser degree, in Tulsa (if the U.S. economy cooperates). Average monthly nonfarm payrolls are expected to grow from 657,500 in 2019 to 660,400 in 2020 representing an annual growth of 0.5%. Payroll gains pick up in 2021 with an anticipated growth of 1.6%. Viewed from a different perspective, the forecast anticipates nonfarm employment to add 6,100 jobs between December 2019 and 2020 before adding 11,600 by December 2021. As with the forecast of statewide employment, the pessimistic scenario (growth of 0.2% instead of 0.5% in 2020) may need to be adopted as the new baseline should the data released through the spring indicate less economic headwinds. Note again the comparison to 2016 and the previous discussion on employment versus production reliance in the economy. Currently, we expect a significant slowdown in employment growth in 2020, yet growth may remain positive. In contrast, over 2016 average monthly nonfarm payroll employment was down 0.1%. discussion on employment versus production reliance in the economy. Currently, we expect a significant slowdown in employment growth in 2020, yet growth may remain positive. In contrast, over 2016 average monthly nonfarm payroll employment was down 0.1%.


Year OKC_PRI Annual Growth2010 444.92011 458.4 3.0%2012 472.2 3.0%2013 484.1 2.5%2014 495.8 2.4%2015 503.4 1.5%2016 500.8 -0.5%2017 507.4 1.3%2018 520.7 2.6%2019 526.9 1.2%2020 529.4 0.5%2021 538.8 1.8%

1.2%

0.5%

1.8%

526.9 529.4538.8

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

400.0

420.0

440.0

460.0

480.0

500.0

520.0

540.0

560.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ann

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Priv

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Mon

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(Tho

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Oklahoma City MSA Private Employment

Figure 15: Oklahoma City MSA Private Employment

Average monthly private-sector payrolls in Oklahoma City will mirror the gains in nonfarm employment. Private sector employment is projected to grow from 526,900 in 2019 to 529,400 in 2020 representing growth of 0.5%. Labor market strength returns in the second half of the year and leading into 2021 with an annual growth of 1.8%. Viewed from a different perspective, the forecast anticipates private employment to add 5,000 jobs between December 2019 and 2020 before adding 10,200 by December 2021.

The employment gains in 2019 were not distributed evenly across sectors with job losses in financial services, oil and gas, and leisure services offset by gains in trade, professional services and construction. Sector performance will be uneven again in 2020 with employment weakness most pronounced in the goods-producing sectors of mining, construction and manufacturing. Goods employment represents only 12.2% of Oklahoma City nonfarm employment but is much more cyclical than services employment. Employment in goods-producing sectors is expected to contract by -3.3% in 2020 led by job losses in the oil and gas industry. By contrast, goods-producing sectors fell by -7.2% in the 2016 contraction.

Year OKC_GOODS Annual Growth2010 70.52011 75.8 7.5%2012 81.6 7.7%2013 84.5 3.5%2014 87.5 3.6%2015 86.6 -1.0%2016 80.4 -7.2%2017 81.6 1.4%2018 85.9 5.3%2019 88.4 2.9%2020 85.5 -3.3%2021 86.8 1.5%

-7.2%

2.9%

-3.3%

1.5%

88.485.5

86.8

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ann

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Goo

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Oklahoma City MSA Goods Employment

Figure 16: Oklahoma City MSA Goods Employment


19.0% 17.7%

4.3% 3.5%

-7.5%

-17.1%

13.3%16.3%

-1.0%-6.1%

4.9%

-25.0%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ann

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Empl

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Mon

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Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Natural Gas Employment

Annual Growth Mining

Figure 17: Oklahoma City MSA Oil and Natural Gas Employment

Employment is expected to be down across the board in the goods-producing sectors of mining, manufacturing and construction in 2020. The industries are somewhat related with a fair amount of manufacturing and construction activity occurring in and around oilfield operations. Additionally, general economic weakness will pull down the performance of these sectors. The most significant drag (in percentage terms) will be in the oil and gas sector with employment expected to contract by 6.1% in 2020. The pace of job losses in the industry was slow enough in 2019 to (mostly) fly under the radar. In total, the average monthly payroll employment in the industry was down 1.0% in 2019. We expect the pace of job losses to pick up in 2020 before adding back only a portion of the jobs lost in 2021. While our baseline models (predicated on previous experiences and current data) suggest some recovery by the end of 2020 and into 2021, other signs point to longer weaknesses.


6.1% 6.6%

4.0%2.9%

-0.2%

-7.7%

-3.2%

1.4% 0.7%

-3.2% -2.5%

-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%

20.022.024.026.028.030.032.034.036.038.040.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ann

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Empl

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Mon

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Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment

Annual Growth Manufacturing

Figure 18: Oklahoma City MSA Manufacturing Employment

Manufacturing employment held up remarkably well in 2019 given the developing headwinds. In total, the average monthly payroll employment in the sector was up 0.7%. We expect the weakness in the global manufacturing sector to combine with the collapse in oil and gas drilling activity to conspire against any such growth in 2020. Instead, expectations call for a 2020-2021 experience, not unlike the previous energy contraction and nascent recovery of 2016-2017. Note again, however, the current expectations that this period of weakness will be somewhat milder than the previous. Models currently predict average monthly manufacturing employment to fall by 3.2% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2021. There is some hope, however, that activity could find its footing in 2021 and significantly outperform this forecast, especially if manufacturing in and for the aerospace industry can pick up some of the slack created in the oil and gas industry.


Construction employment was among the standout sectors in 2019 with large public sector investments (MAPS 3 and Better Streets, Safer Cities initiatives) combining with strong residential housing activity to support average monthly payroll employment growth of 8.3%. We expect strength in the industry to ebb in 2020 and contract from current highs by 1.5%. The ebb is partly a reflection of general economic weakness and partly a response to the energy industry contraction. In contrast to previous data series, construction employment is expected to fare worse in 2020 than in 2016. Some of this can be explained by the expectation of a mild correction from current employment levels, but some of this pessimism could be simply unfounded. Construction activity is definitely slowing somewhat as we head into 2020, but inertia in the system from projects already permitted and started may carry strength into 2020. If Dodge’s construction value forecasts hold true, that may also contribute to higher employment numbers. Regardless, we expect that in the absence of a national recession developing growth will return to the sector in 2021.

2.8% 2.5% 2.2%

4.6%3.0%

0.3% 0.2%

2.9%

8.3%

-1.5%

3.3%

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14.0%

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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Oklahoma City MSA Construction Employment

Annual Growth Construction

Figure 19: Oklahoma City MSA Construction Employment


Year OKC_SVCS Annual Growth2010 496.42011 504.3 1.6%2012 513.0 1.7%2013 524.2 2.2%2014 533.0 1.7%2015 543.7 2.0%2016 549.4 1.0%2017 554.2 0.9%2018 563.7 1.7%2019 569.1 0.9%2020 575.1 1.1%2021 584.4 1.6%

0.9% 1.1%1.6%

569.1 575.1584.4

0.0%

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2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

460.0

480.0

500.0

520.0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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Serv

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Oklahoma City MSA Services Employment

Figure 20: Oklahoma City MSA Services Employment

Services employment represents 87.8% of nonfarm employment in Oklahoma City led by employment in trade, leisure and professional business services. Slow growth in education/health services and leisure services are expected to reverse in 2020 as the services sector carries employment growth in 2020. Average monthly employment in the services sector is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2020 from a monthly average of 569,100 to 575,100. Strength is expected to hold generally into 2021 with an annual growth of 1.6%. The ability of the Oklahoma City forecast of positive employment growth through 2020 will depend on the ability of the services sector to make up for weakness in the goods-producing sector. The full forecast table is available in Appendix C, but likely sectoral candidates to supply this growth include the scientific and technical services sector, the health services sector, and the transportation and warehousing sector.

Within the services sector, at least two industries merit consideration. The first is professional and business services. This sector has three principal components: management (employment at headquarters and management consulting), scientific and technical (engineering, architectural, etc.) and administrative (waste management, temporary employment services, etc.). The largest of the three is administrative, followed by scientific/technical and then management. Total employment in the industry is expected to be down a fraction (0.1%) in 2020 and comparable to the experience of 2016. However, all of the contraction is expected to come from the administrative and support services sector. Both the management and scientific/technical sectors are expected to grow in 2020. Of particular importance is the growth in scientific and technical services employment as this creates a labor pool in the Oklahoma City economy that can support further development in STEM-related fields.

3.6%

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Ann

ual G

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Empl

oym

ent,

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

(Tho

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Oklahoma City MSA Professional and Business Services Employment

Annual Growth Professional Business Svcs.

Figure 21: Oklahoma City MSA Professional and Business Services Employment


1.4%

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1.8%

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ann

ual G

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Empl

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ent,

Mon

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Ave

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(T

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ands

)

Oklahoma City MSA Education and Health Services Employment

Annual Growth Ed & Health

Figure 22: Oklahoma City MSA Education and Health Services Employment

Also worth mentioning is the expected growth in the health services sector. Growth in health care employment is a fairly consistent reflection of population growth combined with the aging of the population. There is some ebb and flow in the employment and health care infrastructure and investment builds out ahead of population trends, the population catches up, and then the next build-up begins. Employment in the sector ebbed in 2019 with average monthly payroll employment only increasing by 0.3%. We expect employment growth to pick up again in 2020 and 2021 with average monthly payroll growth of 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively.

Leisure services employment contracted modestly in 2019, largely due to a drop in arts and entertainment-related employment. Additionally, growth in the hospitality and food services sector slowed somewhat. Growth is expected to return in 2020 with gains of 2.3% followed by growth of 2.8% in 2021. Note that the frequent comparison to the 2016 experience reassures that this industry can grow in employment even in an otherwise challenging economic environment. Finally, note that the forecast is a reflection of information currently in the data series and previous relationships in the data. No attempt is made to adjust to forecast for outside information. Specifically, the forecasted strength is organic and not a reflection of any specific assumption on the opening of hotels and other establishments planned for 2020. In Oklahoma City, as of January 2020, there were six hotels actually under construction with 10 more expected to start within the next 12 months.

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Empl

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ent,

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Ave

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(T

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ands

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Oklahoma City Leisure Services Employment

Annual Growth Leisure

Figure 23: Oklahoma City MSA Leisure Services Employment


Oklahoma City population growth rates have exceeded those of any other area in the state. Much has been made (including in previous versions of this outlook) of the strength Oklahoma City enjoys by its position along the I-35 corridor. A recent slowdown in population growth and migration patterns is suggestive of a weakening of these fundamentals. The current period of weakness will slow population growth rates and may obscure the reality (or lack thereof) of strength on the city’s fundamental determinants of growth. Oklahoma City population is expected to grow at rates of 0.9%, 0.7%, and 1.3% in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively. Despite these slower gains, the Oklahoma City metro will still far outpace both the state and nation in terms of population growth rate for this three-year period. Oklahoma City population likely passed the 1.4-million-person threshold in 2019 and is expected to approach 1.44 million by 2021.

1.5%1.7% 1.7%

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1,250,000

1,300,000

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Oklahoma City Population

Annual Growth Population

Figure 24: Oklahoma City MSA Population


5.4%4.0%

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Ann

ual G

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Per C

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Per

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ome

Oklahoma City Per Capita Personal Income

Annual Growth Per Capita Personal Income

Figure 25: Oklahoma City MSA Per Capita Personal Income

Oklahoma City’s per capita income grew robustly during the last oil and gas recovery from 2017 through 2019. Per capita income grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, 5.7%, and 1.3% in those years. Weakness in the oil and gas sector will hit personal income both directly through falling compensation and indirectly through falling rents and royalty payments. We expect the impact on the growth of per capita personal income in 2020 to be similar to that of 2016 – down 1.2% in 2020 compared to down 2.1% in 2016. As general economic conditions improve and as the energy industry moves through a mild recovery in 2021, per capita personal income will grow by 3.4% and pass the $50,000 threshold.


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Oklahoma City Average Weekly Earnings

Annual Growth Average Weekly Earnings

Figure 26: Oklahoma City MSA Average Weekly Earnings

Average weekly earnings posted strong growth in recent years as the pace of expansion in high earnings occupations exceeded (in relative importance) that of low earnings occupations. The result was average weekly earnings for the year exceeding $900 in 2019 after a growth of 8.5% in 2017 and 6.8% in 2019. Again, however, as the job losses in the high earnings oil and gas sector move through the system in 2020, average weekly earnings are likely to fall. We expect a somewhat steeper drop than in the previous contraction with average weekly earnings falling 5.6% in 2020 to $849.70 before recovering 5.7% in 2021 to again approach $900.


The Greater Oklahoma City region was the beneficiary of several new-to-market announcements and significant expansions in 2019. A select group of those announcements are described below:

Cobham Mission Systems, a U.K. based aerospace company, announced a new facility in Midwest City supporting workload associated with the KC-46 program at Tinker Air Force Base. A major subcontractor for the program, Cobham produces the wing air refueling pods, body fuel tank, oxygen sensor and regulator, and several other components for the KC-46 tanker, an air refueling aircraft.

Burris Logistics renovated and opened a new cold-storage warehouse facility on a 20-acre site in northern Oklahoma City at 14343 N Kelley Ave., allowing for future employment expansion. The total size of the facility is 58,000 square feet and expandable up to 200,000 square feet. The facility has 28,700 square feet of temperature-controlled space, enabling customers to meet the complexity of food safety regulations and chain management challenges.

Aevus Precision Diagnostics selected Oklahoma City as their location to build a team and develop their machine learning platform for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes patients. Aevus is currently in product development with its GeneLead platform and has entered into strategic partnerships with local diabetes experts at Harold Hamm Diabetes Center.

Denver-based TTEC, a third-party back-office company supporting insurance and finance industry clients, announced 350 new jobs in western Oklahoma City. The Humanify Customer Engagement Center is located at the 7725 CONNECT facility (formerly Oklahoma Works). The company employs licensed property and casualty claims adjusters and support positions. TTEC also offers a College of Insurance

training program to help people receive an insurance license and prepare to become an insurance adjuster.

Bakery Bling, a California-based bakery operation announced that it will be relocating its headquarters operation and expanding manufacturing presence into space in western Oklahoma City. The company is projecting 300 new jobs at this location. Bakery Bling

manufactures a line of bakery products featuring its trademark Glittery Sugar and Edible Bling. Bakery Bling creates sparkling embellishments for baked goods and a line of baked goods featuring their edible glitter. Bakery Bling’s products are available nationwide, with clients including Target, Walmart, Disney, Michaels, HomeGoods, Albertsons and Belk. The company chose Oklahoma City over sites in Texas, Arizona, Utah, Nevada and Idaho. All manufacturing will be moved from the current facility in San Clemente, Cali., to Oklahoma City.

Asphalt Fuel & Supply, headquartered in Tulsa,

announced a new 22-acre location 7620 SW 59th in southwest Oklahoma City. The company provides products for the roofing and paving industries, along with producing specialty oils and asphalt blends.

2019 ANNOUNCEMENTS


Tailwind built an industry-leading visual marketing platform that helps over 500,000 of the world’s leading brands and 400 of the top agencies drive ROI on Pinterest and Instagram. The firm moved into a new 8,700-square-foot headquarter location in downtown Oklahoma City to allow for future growth and talent attraction.

In March 2019, Anixter International, a Fortune 500 infrastructure-systems company based in Glenview, Ill., announced an $11 million, 75,000-square-foot warehouse expansion at the 8100 block of South Pole Road in Oklahoma City. Anixter provides technology and equipment for network and security distribution, electrical and electronic solutions. It is also the leading utility-power solutions distributor in North America. The company has more than 600,000 products with over $1 billion in inventory and $8.4 billion in annual sales.

At the Paris Air Show in June 2019, Pratt & Whitney announced expansion plans in Oklahoma City. P&W, a world leader in design, manufacture, and service of aircraft and helicopter engines, announced it’s making a multi-million dollar investment to upgrade its Military Aftermarket Services, which supports sustainment operations at the Air Logistics Center based at Tinker Air Force Base. The expansion will create more than 100 jobs over the next several years. The company has six sites in the Oklahoma City metro. Positions include engineers and other specialty occupations that create the technology before it goes to

the assembly line. This isn’t the company’s first expansion. In the last 15 years, P&W has grown tenfold as Tinker’s sustainment operations have expanded to support more than a dozen engine types.

Western Industries Corp, an Oklahoma City firm providing custom packaging and shipping services announced a new office and production building. The new location, at 5500 S Hattie Ave., is the company’s flagship, state-of-the-art facility that showcases automation, organization and efficiency. With facilities in North America and Asia, WIC helps companies provide global compliance efforts and holistic supply-chain-optimization through the design and manufacturing of solutions in wood, paper, plastics and foam.

Caliber Completion Services, a wireline company supporting the oil & gas sector, opened a location at 2901 Pole Road in Moore and expects to employ 75. The firm helps its clients to minimize completion times, reduce well costs and optimize production.

Scott Manufacturing announced a 30,000-square-foot expansion of their existing facility that will also lead to added jobs. The firm manufactures silicon insulation pads for air conditioner manufacturers, along with additional applications in aerospace and other sectors.


Franklin Electric is expanding its current facility in Oklahoma City with the addition of 45,000 to 70,000 square feet. The firm is a global leader in the manufacturing and distribution of products and systems focused on the movement and management of water and fuel. This includes pumps, motors, drives and controls for use in a wide variety of residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial and municipal applications.

Drov Technologies announced the relocation of its headquarters to Oklahoma City in late 2019, which includes the addition of up to 20 engineering and R&D personnel. Drov Technologies is a pioneer in transportation technology for semi-trucks and tractor trailers, offering aftermarket tire inflation systems and analytics platforms that increase the safety and durability of vehicle fleets.

Corken Inc. announced the construction of a new 150,000-square-foot manufacturing plant at 9201 N Interstate 35 Service Road in Gardner Tanenbaum’s Britton Road Commerce Park. The initial investment was estimated at $15.8 million. Corken manufactures compressors, pumps and valves for energy and transportation industries as a unit of IDEX Corp. (NYSE: IEX). The firm outgrew its 66,623-square-foot facility. The firm has customers throughout North and South America, Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East.

Embark, a Dallas-based financial consulting firm, is expanding to the Oklahoma market and has opened offices in both Oklahoma City and Tulsa. The firm focuses on clients in the public and private equity. Headquartered in Dallas, Embark also has offices in Houston, Austin, and Denver. The Oklahoma offices will also serve as a hub for the northwest Arkansas market.

Johnson Controls announced that it was expanding its rooftop manufacturing, design and testing facility in Norman. The physical footprint increased from 522,000 square feet to 950,000 square feet and the firm will reach over 1,500 employees in the next three years. The expansion project added 300 new jobs with an average wage of $50,000.

In October 2019, Pro-Pipe USA LLC broke ground on a 25-acre, 50,000 square-foot production facility that will manufacture high-density polyethylene pipe for the oil and gas, mining, irrigation, sewer, telecommunications, geothermal and municipal water markets. The firm will employ up to 30 people. Pro-Pipe is the first project to land at Iron Horse Industrial Park, which is owned by Citizen Pottawatomie Nation (CPN).


RETAIL SUCCESSES

Stronger overall economic conditions in 2017, 2018 and 2019 have had a noticeable impact on retail sales in the City of Oklahoma City as well as the metro area. For the seven-county Oklahoma City metropolitan area, 2019 total retail sales increased by 2% from 2018 totals. At approximately $24.2 billion, the Oklahoma City metro accounts for more than 43% of the retail sales in the state of Oklahoma, but only 36% of the state’s population. This makes the Oklahoma City metro a driving force for retail trade in the state.

Oklahoma City continues to focus on attracting destination retail that will increase sales tax revenue for the region. For FY 2019, sales tax collections for the City of Oklahoma City were up by 7.8% over the prior year.

A few select retailers that announced or opened in the Oklahoma City metro in 2019 include Costco, Chicken N Pickle, Bar K, Razoo’s Cajun Café, Parlor OKC, The Collective Food Hall, Bubba’s 33, Homeland’s Corporate HQ and grocery location, Mexican Radio, Warren Theatre (Midwest City), Stella Nova (Edmond), Ulta Beauty (Moore), Crawfish Pot (Norman), Cost Plus World Market (Norman) and Burlington (Yukon and Moore).

SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS CONTINUES ON MAPS 3 PROJECTS

MAPS 3, a capital improvements program funding eight community projects, officially ended tax collections on December 31, 2017. The projects are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis through a seven-year, 1-cent sales tax which began in April 2010. Funds for projects were accumulated over time and construction did not begin until all of the funds were available. This enabled the city to avoid the cost of using debt to finance projects. The program was

originally projected to raise $777 million, a conservative number in hindsight. The 1-cent sales tax finished 2017 with a surplus of an extra $31 million. Including interest, the program brought in more than $820 million. The MAPS 3 program continues to be on schedule with the completion of the final projects scheduled for 2021. Current timelines and progress for the projects are as follows:

Scissortail Park (70-acre Downtown Park)

The grand opening of the $139 million Scissortail Park took place in September 2019. More than 28,000 people attended. The park is located across the street

from the Oklahoma City Convention Center and the Omni Hotel, which are under construction. The south section is scheduled to be completed in 2021. The park includes a café, sports facilities and nature trails. The north section includes playgrounds, gardens, a block-long fountain, amphitheater, boathouse, roller skating rink, and a 240-foot-long pedestrian bridge spanning the lake. When it opens in spring 2020, the park café will be named “Spark” and feature hamburgers and frozen custard. The

retro café will be operated by the Social Order Dining Collective.

Modern Streetcar/Transit

Service for the Oklahoma City Streetcar began on Dec. 14, 2018. An investment study released in 2018 indicated that since the streetcar route was first announced in 2011, the area within a three-block walkable area has gained $1.6 billion in total public and private investment, 5,700 jobs, twenty-one residential developments with 1,860 new housing units and seven new hotels.


Senior Health and Wellness Centers

The MAPS 3 Senior Health and Wellness Centers connect local seniors with important services, and also with each other. The centers provide seniors access to exercise equipment and programs, medical and other wellness services, social spaces and recreational activities. Each one is designed to reflect the specific needs and desires of seniors in the nearby community.

Strategically placed around Oklahoma City, two senior centers have opened with two more scheduled to begin operations soon. The upcoming centers will be located in northeast and southwest Oklahoma City. A fifth center was approved as part of MAPS 4, along with a fund to provide scholarships for low-income seniors who would use it or one of the MAPS 3 centers.

Oklahoma River improvements

The $57 million whitewater rafting and kayaking center opened in 2016 and offers rafting, kayaking and canoeing for all skill levels. For the second time in four years, the RIVERSPORT Rapids and Adventures facility was selected to host the 2020 U.S. Olympic Team Trials for Whitewater Slalom for both men and women. RIVERSPORT’s National High Performance Center in the Boathouse District has also been selected to host Team USA’s Next Olympic Hopeful talent identification program for two consecutive years.

Oklahoma State Fairgrounds improvements

The Bennett Event Center opened at State Fair Park in 2017. The 279,000-square-foot, $58 million expo building provides more than six acres of contiguous space under its roof and can host large exhibitions and private events, including banquet space for up to 2,500

people. Stretching more than three football fields, it is the biggest event space in Oklahoma City. Promoters of large events have historically bypassed Oklahoma City because it lacked the necessary space under one roof. The metro and state should benefit economically from the new expo building for years to come.

Convention Center

Oklahoma City’s new convention center is set to open by the end of 2020. The four-level convention center’s total project budget

is $288 million, including land acquisition and other related expenses. The construction contract is $168.2 million, $20 million under budget. It is located just south of the Chesapeake Arena and next to Scissortail Park. The 200,000-square-foot exhibit hall will dominate the ground floor, featuring three operable walls to divide it into up to four flexible spaces. In late January 2020, it was announced that seven national and international organizations have already signed contracts for conferences and conventions to be held in the all-new Oklahoma City Convention Center. Organizers anticipate


a total of more than 37,000 room nights and $20 million in direct economic impact from those bookings.

The public-private partnership deal with Omni to build, own and operate a conference hotel was approved in 2017 by the Oklahoma City Council. Groundbreaking took place in 2018 and the hotel is expected to open in early 2021. It will employ approximately 400 people. The $141 million, 17-story Omni overlooks the north half of Scissortail Park and is located within walking distance of the streetcar system. The hotel will feature 605 luxurious guest rooms, inclusive of 29 suites, with dramatic views of the 70-acre Scissortail Park and the downtown skyline. Also, the location will feature seven dining outlets, an expansive pool deck with event space, retail, 78,000-square-feet of indoor and outdoor meeting space, and a Mokara Spa. A 1,100-space parking garage will provide parking for the hotel, convention center and park guests.

Sidewalks and Trails

The initiative invested more than $57 million into sidewalks and trails across the community. Guided by the Oklahoma City Trails Master Plan, the West River, Will Rogers and Lake Draper trails have all been completed. To get the most up-to-date information on MAPS 3 sidewalk progress visit www.okc.gov/maps3. These projects promote a more pedestrian-friendly lifestyle and will help to shape the quality of life for Oklahoma City residents and visitors.

$7 BILLION IN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT DURING THE MAPS ERA (1995-2018)

From 2009 to 2018, approximately $1.8 billion in city investment has been used or earmarked for the three rounds of MAPS projects in Oklahoma City. Additional city infrastructure expenditures in the period totaled $690 million and worked to enhance the outcome of the MAPS projects. Other federal, state and local government entities invested an additional $600 million in the downtown area. Total public investment through city spending on MAPS and investments by other public sector entities reached $3.1 billion between 1995 and 2018.

Private investment spending in the downtown study area similarly surged along with the initial MAPS projects and has continued steadily through 2018. Estimated private investment spending totaled $3.9 billion between 1995


and 2018. Private investment gains are highly visible in the office, hotel, medical and research, residential, food service and entertainment sectors.

In total, the combination of city investment through MAPS along with other public and private sector investments in the downtown study area reached an estimated $7 billion in the full MAPS era.

PASSAGE OF MAPS 4 PROJECTS AND LIST OF PROJECTS

Oklahoma City voters delivered a message at the polls on Dec. 10, 2019, a message that will keep the 20-plus year momentum of OKC’s reinvention rolling forward. The city’s MAPS 4 package passed with 71.7% of the vote, the widest margin for a MAPS initiative yet. MAPS 4 is a debt-free public improvement program funded by a temporary penny sales tax that will raise a projected $978

million over eight years. Oklahoma City’s sales tax rate is unchanged as a result of MAPS 4 passage. The sales tax will take effect on April 1, 2020, when the Better Streets, Safer City temporary sales tax expires.

More than 70% of MAPS 4 funding is dedicated to neighborhood and human needs. The rest is for quality of life and job-creating initiatives.

The 16 MAPS 4 projects are:

•Parks ($140 million)

•Youth Centers ($110 million)

•Senior Wellness Centers ($30 million)

•Mental Health and Addiction ($40 million)

•Family Justice Center ($38 million)

•Transit ($87 million)

•Sidewalks, bike lanes, trails and streetlights ($87 million)

•Homelessness ($50 million)

•Chesapeake Energy Arena and related facilities ($115 million)

•Animal Shelter ($38 million)

•Fairgrounds Coliseum ($63 million)

•Diversion Hub ($17 million)

•Innovation District ($71 million)

•Freedom Center and Clara Luper Civil Rights Center ($25 million)

•Beautification ($30 million)

•Multipurpose Stadium ($37 million)

Each project will be refined in the coming years as the process unfolds, much like the previous MAPS programs. Full detail regarding known specifics for each of the projects is available from the City of Oklahoma City at www.okc.gov/maps4. MAPS 4 will be overseen by a voluntary advisory board that makes recommendations to the Oklahoma City Council, which has final oversight. As in the past, the MAPS 4 program is pay-as-you-go. The sales tax proceeds accumulate while the program and projects are planned, so the projects are fully-funded when construction begins.


METHODOLOGY COMMENTS

The Greater Oklahoma City Economic Forecast is undertaken through cooperation with Oklahoma City University and the Center for Regional Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. The forecast is an econometric exercise and is not a consensus forecast of business and civic leaders. All models are constructed from publicly available data sources including datasets from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The forecasts are entirely determined by the past information contained in the dataset and the econometric specification of the models. No attempt has been made to “adjust” the forecast for the beliefs or anticipation of the modeler. For example, construction forecasts are not adjusted to reflect the anticipated impact of large, announced public sector investments. The forecast does not take into account anticipated growth from relocations or “new-to-market” firms. In addition, announced expansions of existing companies may take place over a multi-year time frame and not be fully recognized in the next year. Announced projects that have not taken place are not reflected in forecasted job numbers. The reader is encouraged to treat the forecast as a baseline from which to make their own adjustments and ultimately reach their own conclusion.


37

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4 3.

9 3.

7 3.

4 3.

5


38

U.S

. Eco

nom

ic O

utlo

ok S

umm

ary,

2011

-202

1 Pr

ices,

Prod

uctiv

ity, &

Cos

ts

2011

20

12

2013

20

14

2015

20

16

2017

20

18

2019

20

20

2021

Co

nsum

er P

rice

Inde

x, a

ll ite

ms

3.1

2.1

1.5

1.6

0.1

1.3

2.1

2.4

1.8

1.9

1.8

Core

CPI

(exc

ludi

ng fo

od, a

nd e

nerg

y)

1.7

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.2

Pers

onal

cons

umpt

ion

expe

nditu

res p

rice

inde

x 2.

5 1.

9 1.

3 1.

5 0.

2 1.

0 1.

8 2.

1 1.

4 1.

9 1.

8 Co

re P

CE p

rice

inde

x 1.

6 1.

9 1.

5 1.

6 1.

2 1.

6 1.

6 1.

9 1.

7 2.

1 2.

0 Co

mpe

nsat

ion

per h

our

35.5

36

.4

36.9

37

.9

39.1

39

.5

40.9

42

.2

43.9

45

.3

46.9

O

utpu

t per

hou

r 60

.9

61.4

61

.7

62.3

63

.1

63.3

64

.1

64.9

66

.0

66.7

67

.7

Price

of W

TI c

rude

oil

($/b

arre

l) 95

.08

94.2

0 97

.94

93.2

6 48

.69

43.2

1 50

.96

64.8

9 56

.61

52.0

0 47

.47

Price

of B

rent

cru

de o

il ($

/bar

rel)

110.

96

111.

77

108.

74

99.8

3 52

.68

44.2

4 54

.83

70.9

6 63

.74

57.0

0 52

.17

Inco

me,

Inte

rest

Rat

es, a

nd th

e D

efici

t Fe

dera

l fun

ds ra

te

0.10

0.

14

0.11

0.

09

0.13

0.

40

1.00

1.

83

2.17

1.

64

2.02

10

-yea

r Tre

asur

y-no

te y

ield

2.79

1.

80

2.35

2.

54

2.14

1.

84

2.33

2.

91

2.13

2.

08

2.66

D

ispos

able

pers

onal

inco

me

($ b

illio

ns)

1187

3.6

1250

1.2

1250

5.3

1320

7.7

1378

0.0

1416

5.1

1483

3.0

1574

1.5

1647

5.5

1712

4.5

1782

4.6

Pers

onal

savi

ngs r

ate

(%)

7.2

8.9

6.4

7.3

7.6

6.8

6.9

7.7

8.1

7.6

7.4

Uni

fied

fede

ral s

urpl

us, f

iscal

year

($ b

illio

ns)

-129

6.8

-108

9.2

-680

.2

-483

.6

-439

.1

-587

.4

-665

.8

-779

.0

-984

.4

-109

6.0

-111

5.4


39

APP

EN

DIX

B: O

KL

AH

OM

A O

UT

LO

OK

TA

BL

ES

Okl

ahom

a E

mpl

oym

ent O

utlo

ok b

y Se

ctor

, 201

1-20

21

Yea

r 20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

Non

farm

(bas

eline

) 1,

578.

1 1,

614.

2 1,

635.

3 1,

656.

3 1,

667.

7 1,

653.

5 1,

662.

8 1,

687.

4 1,

694.

9 1,

692.

4 1,

715.

1 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

1.

4%

2.3%

1.

3%

1.3%

0.

7%

-0.8

%

0.6%

1.

5%

0.4%

-0

.2%

1.

3%

Non

farm

(pes

simist

ic)

1,57

8.1

1,61

4.2

1,63

5.3

1,65

6.3

1,66

7.7

1,65

3.5

1,66

2.8

1,68

7.4

1,69

4.9

1,68

7.1

1,70

2.9

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.4%

2.

3%

1.3%

1.

3%

0.7%

-0

.8%

0.

6%

1.5%

0.

4%

-0.5

%

0.9%

Pr

ivat

e (b

aseli

ne)

1,23

4.0

1,26

7.0

1,28

6.7

1,30

7.9

1,31

6.5

1,30

1.2

1,31

3.5

1,33

9.8

1,34

7.9

1,34

4.8

1,36

7.9

Ann

ual G

row

th

2.2%

2.

7%

1.6%

1.

6%

0.7%

-1

.2%

0.

9%

2.0%

0.

6%

-0.2

%

1.7%

Pr

ivat

e (p

essim

istic)

1,

234.

0 1,

267.

0 1,

286.

7 1,

307.

9 1,

316.

5 1,

301.

2 1,

313.

5 1,

339.

8 1,

347.

8 1,

338.

8 1,

356.

3 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

2.

2%

2.7%

1.

6%

1.6%

0.

7%

-1.2

%

0.9%

2.

0%

0.6%

-0

.7%

1.

3%

Goo

ds

256.

8 27

1.5

277.

3 28

2.4

274.

6 25

6.1

259.

5 27

1.1

272.

1 26

2.9

273.

3 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

6.

7%

5.7%

2.

2%

1.8%

-2

.8%

-6

.7%

1.

3%

4.5%

0.

4%

-3.4

%

4.0%

Se

rvice

s (ba

selin

e)

1,32

1.3

1,34

2.7

1,35

8.0

1,37

3.8

1,39

3.0

1,39

7.4

1,40

3.3

1,41

6.3

1,42

2.8

1,42

9.5

1,44

1.8

Ann

ual G

row

th

0.5%

1.

6%

1.1%

1.

2%

1.4%

0.

3%

0.4%

0.

9%

0.5%

0.

5%

0.9%

Se

rvice

s (pe

ssim

istic)

1,

321.

3 1,

342.

7 1,

358.

0 1,

373.

8 1,

393.

0 1,

397.

4 1,

403.

3 1,

416.

3 1,

422.

7 1,

418.

4 1,

421.

0 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

0.

5%

1.6%

1.

1%

1.2%

1.

4%

0.3%

0.

4%

0.9%

0.

4%

-0.3

%

0.2%

In

form

atio

n 23

.0

22.5

21

.8

21.2

21

.2

21.2

20

.5

19.9

19

.0

19.1

18

.4

Ann

ual G

row

th

-5.0

%

-2.5

%

-3.0

%

-2.7

%

0.0%

-0

.1%

-3

.3%

-3

.0%

-4

.4%

0.

5%

-3.7

%

Min

ing

51.9

58

.6

60.0

62

.2

54.4

44

.2

48.1

53

.1

52.7

46

.8

52.3

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

18

.2%

13

.0%

2.

5%

3.6%

-1

2.6%

-1

8.7%

8.

9%

10.3

%

-0.7

%

-11.

2%

11.8

%

Cons

truct

ion

68.3

70

.5

74.8

75

.5

77.6

77

.5

77.5

80

.4

83.9

84

.8

86.6

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

1.

9%

3.2%

6.

1%

0.9%

2.

8%

-0.1

%

0.0%

3.

7%

4.4%

1.

0%

2.1%

M

anuf

actu

ring

136.

6 14

2.4

142.

5 14

4.8

142.

7 13

4.4

133.

8 13

7.6

135.

5 13

1.4

134.

4 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

5.

2%

4.2%

0.

1%

1.6%

-1

.4%

-5

.8%

-0

.4%

2.

8%

-1.5

%

-3.0

%

2.3%


40

Okl

ahom

a E

mpl

oym

ent O

utlo

ok b

y Se

ctor

, 201

1-20

21

Yea

r 20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

Trad

e, Tr

ansp

ort,

Util

ities

27

5.0

282.

5 28

8.2

295.

4 30

0.6

299.

5 29

6.7

299.

6 30

3.7

303.

9 30

6.5

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.8%

2.

8%

2.0%

2.

5%

1.8%

-0

.3%

-0

.9%

1.

0%

1.4%

0.

0%

0.9%

W

holes

ale

54.7

56

.7

57.9

59

.4

58.5

56

.5

56.8

57

.5

59.5

60

.1

61.9

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

3.

1%

3.6%

2.

1%

2.7%

-1

.6%

-3

.3%

0.

5%

1.2%

3.

6%

1.0%

3.

0%

Reta

il 17

0.6

173.

1 17

5.1

178.

9 18

3.2

183.

9 17

9.2

178.

2 17

8.3

177.

1 17

6.3

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.1%

1.

5%

1.1%

2.

2%

2.4%

0.

4%

-2.6

%

-0.5

%

0.0%

-0

.7%

-0

.4%

Tr

ansp

ort,

War

ehou

se, U

tiliti

es

49.7

52

.7

55.3

57

.1

58.9

59

.1

60.8

63

.9

65.9

66

.7

68.3

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

3.

1%

6.1%

4.

9%

3.1%

3.

2%

0.4%

2.

8%

5.2%

3.

0%

1.2%

2.

4%

Fina

ncial

Ser

vice

s 77

.6

78.2

78

.9

79.6

79

.5

78.8

78

.8

79.2

79

.3

78.0

78

.4

Ann

ual G

row

th

-0.7

%

0.7%

1.

0%

0.8%

-0

.1%

-0

.9%

0.

1%

0.5%

0.

1%

-1.7

%

0.6%

Re

al E

stat

e 19

.5

19.8

20

.5

20.9

20

.8

20.5

20

.6

21.2

21

.9

21.2

21

.6

Ann

ual G

row

th

-1.5

%

1.5%

3.

2%

2.0%

-0

.3%

-1

.4%

0.

5%

3.2%

2.

9%

-2.8

%

1.5%

Pr

ofes

siona

l/Bu

sines

s Ser

vice

s 17

6.4

180.

1 18

1.8

185.

0 18

4.7

182.

3 18

6.3

190.

3 18

9.1

189.

8 19

2.8

Ann

ual G

row

th

2.1%

2.

1%

0.9%

1.

8%

-0.1

%

-1.3

%

2.2%

2.

2%

-0.7

%

0.4%

1.

6%

Scien

tific

64.8

66

.4

67.4

68

.3

69.6

69

.6

70.4

72

.5

72.4

73

.2

74.0

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

1.

3%

2.4%

1.

6%

1.2%

1.

9%

0.1%

1.

1%

2.9%

-0

.2%

1.

2%

1.1%

M

anag

emen

t 16

.9

17.8

18

.1

18.3

18

.6

18.7

18

.8

19.0

19

.1

19.3

19

.4

Ann

ual G

row

th

3.9%

5.

6%

1.8%

1.

1%

1.5%

0.

8%

0.5%

1.

1%

0.0%

1.

4%

0.3%

A

dmin

istra

tive

94.7

95

.9

96.2

98

.4

96.5

93

.9

97.0

98

.8

97.6

97

.3

99.4

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

2.

4%

1.3%

0.

3%

2.3%

-1

.9%

-2

.8%

3.

3%

1.8%

-1

.2%

-0

.4%

2.

2%


41

Okl

ahom

a E

mpl

oym

ent O

utlo

ok b

y Se

ctor

, 201

1-20

21

Yea

r 20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

Ed/

Hea

lth

223.

2 22

6.3

227.

7 22

8.1

231.

5 23

3.8

235.

4 23

6.4

238.

7 24

0.3

242.

0 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

0.

7%

1.4%

0.

6%

0.2%

1.

5%

1.0%

0.

7%

0.4%

1.

0%

0.7%

0.

7%

Edu

catio

n 19

.1

19.2

19

.4

19.7

19

.9

20.0

19

.7

19.9

19

.3

19.5

19

.6

Ann

ual G

row

th

3.4%

0.

7%

1.0%

1.

7%

1.0%

0.

3%

-1.4

%

0.9%

-3

.2%

1.

4%

0.5%

H

ealth

Ser

vice

s 20

4.1

207.

1 20

8.3

208.

3 21

1.6

213.

8 21

5.7

216.

5 21

9.4

220.

8 22

2.3

Ann

ual G

row

th

0.5%

1.

5%

0.6%

0.

0%

1.6%

1.

0%

0.9%

0.

4%

1.4%

0.

6%

0.7%

Le

isure

Ser

vice

s 14

3.2

147.

4 15

1.8

156.

2 16

1.9

165.

3 16

7.6

171.

8 17

2.3

175.

8 17

9.4

Ann

ual G

row

th

2.9%

3.

0%

3.0%

2.

9%

3.7%

2.

1%

1.4%

2.

6%

0.2%

2.

0%

2.1%

A

rts

14.3

14

.5

14.9

15

.1

16.4

16

.9

17.1

17

.3

16.9

17

.3

17.5

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

-0

.6%

1.

5%

2.5%

1.

6%

8.3%

3.

5%

0.7%

1.

7%

-2.7

%

2.7%

0.

8%

Acc

omm

odat

ion

128.

9 13

2.9

136.

9 14

1.1

145.

5 14

8.4

150.

5 15

4.5

155.

4 15

8.5

162.

0 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

3.

3%

3.1%

3.

1%

3.0%

3.

2%

1.9%

1.

4%

2.7%

0.

6%

2.0%

2.

2%

Oth

er S

ervi

ces

58.8

58

.6

59.1

60

.1

62.4

64

.3

68.7

71

.5

73.7

75

.0

77.2

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

-3

.0%

-0

.4%

0.

9%

1.7%

3.

8%

3.0%

6.

9%

4.0%

3.

1%

1.8%

2.

8%

Gov

ernm

ent

344.

1 34

7.2

348.

6 34

8.3

351.

2 35

2.3

349.

4 34

7.6

347.

1 34

7.6

347.

2 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

-1

.3%

0.

9%

0.4%

-0

.1%

0.

8%

0.3%

-0

.8%

-0

.5%

-0

.2%

0.

2%

-0.1

%

Fede

ral

49.1

48

.3

47.1

46

.3

47.0

48

.1

48.5

49

.1

49.8

50

.7

50.7

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

-2

.6%

-1

.7%

-2

.4%

-1

.8%

1.

5%

2.4%

0.

8%

1.3%

1.

4%

1.8%

0.

0%

Stat

e 84

.9

86.5

86

.3

85.8

85

.6

85.0

83

.3

81.8

81

.1

80.2

79

.6

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.2%

1.

8%

-0.2

%

-0.6

%

-0.2

%

-0.7

%

-1.9

%

-1.8

%

-0.9

%

-1.1

%

-0.7

%

Loca

l 21

0.0

212.

4 21

5.2

216.

3 21

8.7

219.

3 21

7.5

216.

6 21

6.2

216.

7 21

6.9

Ann

ual G

row

th

-1.9

%

1.1%

1.

3%

0.5%

1.

1%

0.3%

-0

.8%

-0

.4%

-0

.2%

0.

3%

0.1%


1

O

klah

oma

Qua

rterly

Inco

me,

Popu

latio

n, G

DP

20

19:Q

3 20

19:Q

4 20

20:Q

1 20

20:Q

2 20

20:Q

3 20

20:Q

4 20

21:Q

1 20

21:Q

2 20

21:Q

3 20

21:Q

4 O

K P

erso

nal I

ncom

e 19

0,27

6.6

189,

299.

0 18

7,68

3.3

186,

824.

4 18

7,11

2.5

188,

265.

4 18

9,73

9.9

191,

816.

2 19

3,87

4.4

195,

895.

4

Ann

ualiz

ed G

row

th

3.1%

-2

.0%

-3

.4%

-1

.8%

0.

6%

2.5%

3.

2%

4.4%

4.

4%

4.2%

O

K P

opul

atio

n 3,

955,

108

3,95

7,38

7 3,

959,

787

3,96

2,32

6 3,

965,

017

3,96

7,87

1 3,

970,

897

3,97

4,10

0 3,

977,

483

3,98

1,04

5

Ann

ualiz

ed G

row

th

0.3%

0.

2%

0.2%

0.

3%

0.3%

0.

3%

0.3%

0.

3%

0.3%

0.

4%

OK

Per

Cap

Inco

me

48,1

09

47,8

34

47,3

97

47,1

50

47,1

91

47,4

47

47,7

83

48,2

67

48,7

43

49,2

07

A

nnua

lized

Gro

wth

2.

7%

-2.3

%

-3.6

%

-2.1

%

0.3%

2.

2%

2.9%

4.

1%

4.0%

3.

9%

OK

Rea

l GD

P 20

2,05

8.6

200,

000.

5 19

8,91

5.8

195,

859.

3 19

7,18

7.0

197,

560.

5 19

9,38

1.0

201,

687.

9 20

3,00

7.4

204,

366.

5

Ann

ualiz

ed G

row

th

1.9%

-4

.0%

-2

.2%

-6

.0%

2.

7%

0.8%

3.

7%

4.7%

2.

6%

2.7%

Okl

ahom

a A

nnua

l Inc

ome,

Popu

latio

n, a

nd G

ross

Dom

estic

Pro

duct

, 201

1-20

21

Yea

r 20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

OK

Per

sona

l Inc

ome

147,

889.

6 15

8,35

3.9

166,

063.

4 17

6,62

1.9

172,

992.

1 16

4,41

9.0

171,

597.

4 18

2,30

1.9

189,

250.

5 18

7,47

1.4

192,

831.

5

Ann

ual G

row

th

7.6%

7.

1%

4.9%

6.

4%

-2.1

%

-5.0

%

4.4%

6.

2%

3.8%

-0

.9%

2.

9%

OK

Pop

ulat

ion

3,78

8,62

9 3,

819,

807

3,85

2,56

9 3,

879,

919

3,90

8,60

3 3,

925,

924

3,93

3,70

8 3,

943,

499

3,95

3,55

8 3,

963,

750

3,97

5,88

1

Ann

ual G

row

th

0.8%

0.

8%

0.9%

0.

7%

0.7%

0.

4%

0.2%

0.

2%

0.3%

0.

3%

0.3%

O

K P

er C

ap In

com

e 39

,034

41

,455

43

,104

45

,521

44

,260

41

,881

43

,622

46

,228

47

,868

47

,296

48

,500

Ann

ual G

row

th

6.8%

6.

2%

4.0%

5.

6%

-2.8

%

-5.4

%

4.2%

6.

0%

3.5%

-1

.2%

2.

5%

OK

Rea

l GD

P 16

5,15

3 17

3,48

4 17

7,60

2 18

7,73

9 19

5,90

2 19

0,11

0 19

1,54

4 19

6,52

5 20

1,15

5 19

7,38

1 20

2,11

1

Ann

ual G

row

th

3.7%

5.

0%

2.4%

5.

7%

4.3%

-3

.0%

0.

8%

2.6%

2.

4%

-1.9

%

2.4%


43

APP

EN

DIX

C: O

KL

AH

OM

A C

ITY

OU

TL

OO

K T

AB

LE

S O

klah

oma

City

Em

ploy

men

t Out

look

by

Sect

or, 2

011-

2021

Y

ear

2011

20

12

2013

20

14

2015

20

16

2017

20

18

2019

20

20

2021

N

onfa

rm (b

aseli

ne)

580.

1 59

4.7

608.

7 62

0.5

630.

4 62

9.8

635.

7 64

9.6

657.

5 66

0.4

671.

2 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

2.

3%

2.5%

2.

4%

1.9%

1.

6%

-0.1

%

0.9%

2.

2%

1.2%

0.

5%

1.6%

N

onfa

rm (p

essim

istic)

58

0.1

594.

7 60

8.7

620.

5 63

0.4

629.

8 63

5.7

649.

6 65

7.6

659.

1 66

8.9

Ann

ual G

row

th

2.3%

2.

5%

2.4%

1.

9%

1.6%

-0

.1%

0.

9%

2.2%

1.

2%

0.2%

1.

5%

Priv

ate

(bas

eline

) 45

8.4

472.

2 48

4.1

495.

8 50

3.4

500.

8 50

7.4

520.

7 52

6.9

529.

4 53

8.8

Ann

ual G

row

th

3.0%

3.

0%

2.5%

2.

4%

1.5%

-0

.5%

1.

3%

2.6%

1.

2%

0.5%

1.

8%

Priv

ate

(pes

simist

ic)

458.

4 47

2.2

484.

1 49

5.8

503.

4 50

0.8

507.

4 52

0.7

526.

9 52

7.4

536.

6 A

nnua

l Gro

wth

3.

0%

3.0%

2.

5%

2.4%

1.

5%

-0.5

%

1.3%

2.

6%

1.2%

0.

1%

1.7%

G

oods

75

.8

81.6

84

.5

87.5

86

.6

80.4

81

.6

85.9

88

.5

85.6

86

.8

Ann

ual G

row

th

7.5%

7.

7%

3.5%

3.

6%

-1.0

%

-7.2

%

1.4%

5.

3%

3.0%

-3

.3%

1.

5%

Serv

ices (

base

line)

50

4.3

513.

0 52

4.2

533.

0 54

3.7

549.

4 55

4.2

563.

7 56

9.1

575.

1 58

4.4

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.6%

1.

7%

2.2%

1.

7%

2.0%

1.

0%

0.9%

1.

7%

0.9%

1.

1%

1.6%

Se

rvice

s (pe

ssim

istic)

50

4.3

513.

0 52

4.2

533.

0 54

3.7

549.

4 55

4.2

563.

7 56

9.1

573.

5 58

2.1

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.6%

1.

7%

2.2%

1.

7%

2.0%

1.

0%

0.9%

1.

7%

1.0%

0.

8%

1.5%

M

inin

g 17

.0

20.0

20

.8

21.6

19

.9

16.5

18

.7

21.8

21

.6

20.3

21

.3

Ann

ual G

row

th

19.0

%

17.7

%

4.3%

3.

5%

-7.5

%

-17.

1%

13.3

%

16.3

%

-1.0

%

-6.1

%

4.9%

Co

nstru

ctio

n 25

.9

26.6

27

.2

28.4

29

.3

29.3

29

.4

30.2

32

.8

32.3

33

.3

Ann

ual G

row

th

2.8%

2.

5%

2.2%

4.

6%

3.0%

0.

3%

0.2%

2.

9%

8.3%

-1

.5%

3.

3%

Man

ufac

turin

g 32

.9

35.1

36

.5

37.5

37

.4

34.5

33

.4

33.9

34

.1

33.0

32

.2

Ann

ual G

row

th

6.1%

6.

6%

4.0%

2.

9%

-0.2

%

-7.7

%

-3.2

%

1.4%

0.

7%

-3.2

%

-2.5

%

Trad

e, Tr

ansp

ort,

Util

ities

99

.9

102.

8 10

6.9

109.

4 11

1.7

112.

0 11

1.5

112.

5 11

3.9

114.

1 11

5.9

Ann

ual G

row

th

2.8%

2.

9%

4.0%

2.

4%

2.1%

0.

2%

-0.4

%

0.9%

1.

2%

0.2%

1.

6%

Who

lesale

21

.4

22.6

23

.7

24.3

24

.5

23.8

23

.9

24.2

25

.4

25.4

26

.2

Ann

ual G

row

th

4.7%

5.

5%

5.2%

2.

4%

0.6%

-2

.5%

0.

3%

1.1%

4.

9%

0.1%

3.

3%

Reta

il 61

.2

62.4

64

.2

66.0

67

.7

68.2

66

.7

66.2

65

.5

64.8

64

.8

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.8%

1.

9%

3.0%

2.

7%

2.6%

0.

9%

-2.3

%

-0.8

%

-1.0

%

-1.0

%

-0.1

%

Tran

spor

t, W

areh

ouse

, Util

ities

17

.3

17.8

18

.9

19.1

19

.6

19.9

20

.9

22.2

23

.0

23.9

24

.9

Ann

ual G

row

th

4.1%

3.

3%

5.9%

1.

2%

2.6%

1.

4%

5.2%

6.

0%

3.8%

3.

7%

4.4%


44

Okl

ahom

a Ci

ty E

mpl

oym

ent O

utlo

ok b

y Se

ctor

, 202

0-20

21

Yea

r 20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

Info

rmat

ion

9.0

8.6

8.2

8.1

8.3

8.2

7.7

7.4

7.2

7.0

6.8

Ann

ual G

row

th

-5.8

%

-4.4

%

-4.7

%

-0.7

%

1.5%

-1

.2%

-6

.0%

-4

.1%

-2

.0%

-3

.4%

-3

.0%

Fi

nanc

ial S

ervi

ces

30.9

31

.8

32.4

33

.2

33.4

33

.2

33.3

33

.4

33.2

33

.4

33.6

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

-0

.6%

3.

0%

2.0%

2.

3%

0.7%

-0

.7%

0.

3%

0.3%

-0

.5%

0.

6%

0.6%

Pr

ofes

siona

l/Bu

sines

s Ser

vice

s 75

.8

76.8

77

.6

78.7

79

.7

79.6

81

.5

85.0

86

.9

86.8

88

.7

Ann

ual G

row

th

3.6%

1.

3%

1.1%

1.

4%

1.2%

0.

0%

2.3%

4.

3%

2.2%

-0

.1%

2.

2%

Scien

tific

29.1

30

.0

29.9

30

.2

31.2

32

.4

33.2

34

.3

35.9

36

.4

37.4

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

3.

0%

2.8%

-0

.2%

0.

9%

3.5%

3.

7%

2.6%

3.

2%

4.8%

1.

4%

2.7%

M

anag

emen

t 7.

8 8.

8 9.

0 9.

4 9.

5 9.

5 9.

8 10

.3

10.4

10

.7

10.9

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

7.

2%

12.8

%

2.5%

4.

5%

1.2%

-0

.5%

3.

3%

4.9%

1.

1%

2.6%

2.

7%

Adm

inist

rativ

e 38

.9

38.1

38

.7

39.1

38

.9

37.8

38

.5

40.5

40

.6

39.7

40

.4

Ann

ual G

row

th

3.3%

-2

.1%

1.

8%

1.1%

-0

.5%

-2

.9%

1.

9%

5.1%

0.

3%

-2.1

%

1.6%

E

d/H

ealth

Ser

vice

s 84

.4

86.4

88

.0

88.9

90

.5

91.2

92

.0

93.2

93

.5

94.5

95

.7

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.4%

2.

4%

1.7%

1.

1%

1.8%

0.

7%

1.0%

1.

3%

0.3%

1.

1%

1.3%

H

ealth

Ser

vice

s 75

.5

77.4

78

.7

79.5

81

.1

81.9

83

.0

83.7

86

.2

86.8

88

.1

Ann

ual G

row

th

0.9%

2.

5%

1.7%

1.

0%

2.0%

1.

0%

1.3%

0.

9%

3.0%

0.

7%

1.5%

Le

isure

60

.0

61.7

64

.2

65.9

68

.0

70.0

71

.7

74.2

74

.1

75.8

78

.0

Ann

ual G

row

th

4.2%

2.

9%

4.0%

2.

7%

3.1%

2.

9%

2.5%

3.

4%

-0.1

%

2.3%

2.

8%

Oth

er

22.7

22

.4

22.4

24

.0

25.2

26

.4

28.2

29

.2

29.7

30

.4

31.2

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

0.

0%

-1.4

%

0.0%

7.

3%

5.0%

4.

5%

6.8%

3.

5%

1.9%

2.

2%

2.7%

G

over

nmen

t 12

1.7

122.

5 12

4.6

124.

7 12

7.0

129.

0 12

8.3

128.

9 13

0.6

131.

6 13

2.3

Ann

ual G

row

th

-0.2

%

0.6%

1.

7%

0.1%

1.

8%

1.6%

-0

.5%

0.

5%

1.3%

0.

8%

0.5%

Fe

dera

l 28

.4

28.2

27

.6

26.9

27

.4

28.3

28

.8

29.2

29

.5

30.3

30

.5

Ann

ual G

row

th

0.9%

-0

.6%

-2

.2%

-2

.4%

2.

0%

3.2%

1.

7%

1.3%

1.

1%

2.6%

0.

7%

Stat

e 42

.1

42.4

43

.5

44.4

45

.3

46.2

45

.8

45.8

46

.3

46.7

47

.0

Ann

ual G

row

th

0.8%

0.

8%

2.6%

2.

0%

2.0%

2.

0%

-0.8

%

-0.1

%

1.1%

0.

9%

0.7%

Lo

cal

51.3

51

.9

53.6

53

.5

54.3

54

.5

53.7

54

.0

54.9

54

.7

54.8

A

nnua

l Gro

wth

-1

.7%

1.

2%

3.2%

-0

.2%

1.

5%

0.4%

-1

.5%

0.

6%

1.6%

-0

.3%

0.

2%


45

Okl

ahom

a Ci

ty P

rodu

ctio

n, P

opul

atio

n, In

com

e, an

d E

arni

ngs,

2011

-202

1

Yea

r 20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

Pers

onal

Inco

me

(thou

) 52

,094

,553

55

,052

,398

56

,690

,805

60

,086

,474

61

,654

,662

61

,095

,054

63

,561

,386

67

,827

,244

69

,325

,569

68

,923

,481

72

,202

,128

Ann

ual G

row

th

7.0%

5.

7%

3.0%

6.

0%

2.6%

-0

.9%

4.

0%

6.7%

2.

2%

-0.6

%

4.8%

Popu

latio

n 1,

277,

284

1,29

8,47

6 1,

320,

817

1,33

6,94

0 1,

358,

012

1,37

4,15

3 1,

383,

249

1,39

6,44

5 1,

409,

432

1,41

8,76

5 1,

437,

209

Ann

ual G

row

th

1.5%

1.

7%

1.7%

1.

2%

1.6%

1.

2%

0.7%

1.

0%

0.9%

0.

7%

1.3%

Per C

apita

Per

sona

l Inc

ome

40,7

85

42,3

98

42,9

21

44,9

43

45,4

01

44,4

60

45,9

51

48,5

71

49,1

87

48,5

80

50,2

38

Ann

ual G

row

th

5.4%

4.

0%

1.2%

4.

7%

1.0%

-2

.1%

3.

4%

5.7%

1.

3%

-1.2

%

3.4%

Real

Gro

ss M

etro

Pro

duct

62

,767

,914

66

,814

,963

69

,422

,004

72

,667

,813

77

,856

,498

76

,633

,959

77

,302

,505

79

,667

,931

85

,633

,620

84

,497

,405

86

,793

,791

Ann

ual G

row

th

4.0%

6.

4%

3.9%

4.

7%

7.1%

-1

.6%

0.

9%

3.1%

7.

5%

-1.3

%

2.7%

Ave

rage

Wee

kly

Ear

ning

s 70

5.68

77

8.97

76

8.85

75

9.55

74

0.86

76

1.76

82

6.14

84

3.20

90

0.37

84

9.70

89

8.32

Ann

ual G

row

th

3.1%

10

.4%

-1

.3%

-1

.2%

-2

.5%

2.

8%

8.5%

2.

1%

6.8%

-5

.6%

5.

7%

DAT

A S

OU

RCES

All

empl

oym

ent a

nd w

eekly

ear

ning

s dat

a se

ries a

re p

ulle

d fro

m th

e sta

te a

nd lo

cal C

urre

nt E

mpl

oym

ent S

tatis

tics

(CES

) pub

lishe

d by

the

Bure

au o

f Lab

or

Stat

istic

s (BL

S).

All

GD

P, in

com

e, a

nd p

opul

atio

n da

ta se

ries a

re c

ompi

led

by th

e Bu

reau

of E

cono

mic

Ana

lysis

(BEA

). A

ll sta

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ns@

okcu

.edu


DEMOLITION • HAULING • EXCAVATION405.478.8833

ormidwestwreckingco.comFOR A FREE ESTIMATE


CREATINGOPPORTUNITIESThe Central Oklahoma Workforce Innovation Board invests in high quality employment and training solutions that create opportunities for regional employers, job seekers and youth.

COWIB is an Equal Opportunity employer / program. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities. This presentation was financed in whole or in part by funds from the US Department of Labor.

We create opportunities for businesses. We leverage funding and design strategies to help businesses access quality workforce talent in our region. Our extensive network of community partners and employer resources means businesses have a single source to call for business consulting, employee training, recruiting, labor market data, and referrals to network partners, ensuring the right solutions to succeed and be competitive.

We create opportunities for job seekers. Our no-cost services connect job seekers to skills training, education, and certifications that increase their employability and help them find work, even after long-term unemployment.

We create opportunities for youth. The economic future of our region depends on having a strong workforce with the skills employers need. Our robust programs help young people, ages 16-24, identify career and education options, gain work experience and the skills needed to achieve success.

www.cowib.org 405-622-2026

GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMIC FORECAST · 2 2020 ECONOMIC FORECAST OVERVIEW The Greater Oklahoma...

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