Greater Manchester’s Early Years strategy- building the business case

Julian Cox, Deputy Director of Research, New Economy

26th June 2015

Introduction - Early years has long been identified as a key issue for Greater Manchester

• Manchester Independent Economic Review (MIER)

• Greater Manchester Strategy

• Greater Manchester Whole Place Community Budget

Greater Manchester CBA methodology

What do we mean by costs and benefits?

• Fiscal• Social• Economic

Costs

Benefits

All additional costs needed to deliver project

Fiscal Economic Social

The early years New Delivery Model• The NDM contains a suite of evidence-based interventions and evidence-based assessment tools to identify

families reaching clinically diagnosable thresholds for intervention or having multiple risk factors as early as possible.

STAGE 1 (Pre Birth before 12 + 6 weeks)

STAGE 2 (Birth 10 -14 days)

STAGE 3 (3 Months)Ages and Stages

STAGE 4 (9 Months)• Predict and plan for 2 years old offer

• Ages and Stages

STAGE 5 (18 Months)*agreed 2 year old offer arrangements

Ages and Stages assessment - plus key questions

STAGE 6 (24 Months)Ages and Stages assessment - plus key questions

Add prediction of learning readiness at EYPS

STAGE 7 (36 Months)Ages and Stages assessment plus key questions

Add Prediction of learning readiness at EYPS

STAGE 8 (48 Months)Ages and Stages assessment plus key questions

Add Predictions of learning readiness at EYPS

Targeted & Universal InterventionsNDM Assessment Model

Baby Express ECAT

Children’s Centres

NBO

Healthy Child Programme

15 hrs. for 3-4 year olds

FNP

IY Baby IY Toddler/Pre-school

Triple P

Video Interaction Guidance

NBAS

Individualised Child Parent Interaction

Universal Services

Targeted interventions

Assessment Stages 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Targeted 2s Daycare

Early Years modelling considerations

• Multiple interventions

• Multiple cohort types (universal and targeted)

• Long term nature of the outcomes• 25 year time frame chosen

Brought in external support from Social Finance to investigate the evidence base and provide further insight

School Readiness (incl. cognitive dev)

Behavioural/emotional dev.

Population earnings

Population unemployment

Truancy

Exclusion

ASB

Crime

Maternal supportiveness

Early cognitive stimulation

Early development

Short term direct parental impacts: e.g. employment, smoking

Short term direct child impacts: e.g. use of health services

Intervention

Mental health

GM Early Years Logic Tree

Costs and benefits of the New Delivery Model

NDM Cost profile – over 25 years – for each yearly cohort

Cumulative Gross Savings Apportionment (Agencies)

Early savings are driven largely by maternal employment with child-related savings increasing in secondary school and again in adulthood.

Challenges of building an investment case

Investment challenges (1) - Estimated fiscal payback periods

• Considering a single year’s cohort of 38,000 children, the model pays back fiscally in Year 19, with cumulative net savings of £13m over 25 years.

• However, when considering a sustainable year on year delivery of the New Delivery Model – the payback period extends to >25 years.

Cumulative Net Costs / Savings Position - By year - Single cohort

Cumulative Net Costs / Savings Position - By year - Multi cohort

Investment Challenges (2)

• Of the total net savings, only 2% would be accrued by Greater Manchester local authorities.

• The bulk of the savings fall to national bodies (e.g. DWP) or local schools.• Therefore a reinvestment model would require

DWP and schools to make significant transfers once school readiness and employment rates improve.

Making the political as well as financial case

• Economic value of the scheme over 25 years > £400m

• The NDM has a substantial impact on school readiness, helping c.1100 extra children become school ready. This equates to a 3% improvement in school readiness.

• If successful, it is likely that wider economic and social benefits will occur which we can’t currently take into account in the financial model savings case.

Latest progress

• A number of early adopters testing different areas of the model

• Early Years included in the GM Devolution agreement

• Commitment from Health and Local Authority leads in all 10 localities to implementing the GM model• Varied pace and scale of implementation across GM

• Troubled Families Phase 2 programme is a potential source of investment for the highest need families

• Opportunities to align with GM Health and Social Care devolution

julian.cox@neweconomymanchester.com

Any questions?