Great lakes water levels€¦ · 30. Inflow from Upstream Lake Evaporation. Precipitation. Outflow....
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217 217 217 200 200 200 255 255 255 0 0 0 163 163 163 131 132 122 239 65 53 110 135 120 112 92 56 62 102 130 102 56 48 130 120 111 237 237 237 80 119 27 252 174 .59 “The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.” Lauren Fry Office of Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology USACE Detroit District 18 July 2019 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS 1
Transcript of Great lakes water levels€¦ · 30. Inflow from Upstream Lake Evaporation. Precipitation. Outflow....
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“The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.”
Lauren Fry
Office of Great Lakes Hydraulics and HydrologyUSACE Detroit District18 July 2019
GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS1
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GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS
1. Where are they now?(and how did they get here?)
2. How do we forecast them? 3. Where will they be?
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1. Where are they now?(and how did they get here?)
2. How do we forecast them? 3. Where will they be?
GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS
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Credit: Brian Allnutt, Curbed Detroit
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Credit: Mark Breederland
~ 5ft difference between Jan 2008 and May 2019
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Credit: Mark Breederland
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Credit: Mark Breederland
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Credit: The Columbus Dispatch- Tom Hawley
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Credit: Mark Breederland
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Credit: The Columbus Dispatch- Tom Hawley
Credit: newyorkupstate.com- Maureen Morgan Whelan
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NOTES ABOUT WATER LEVELS9
• Not a depth, but an elevation above sea level
• International Great Lakes Datum of 1985
• Michigan and Huron = One lake
• Lake-wide daily means Lake-wide monthly means
• Based on still water, not influenced by meteorological forcing
• Based on a network of water level gauges
• Detroit District Corps of Engineers = keeper of official monthly water level
statistics from 1918-2018
• Coordination occurs with Environment and Climate Change Canada
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The Great Lakes Basin• 14,000 miles of shoreline• 95,000 square miles of water• 200,000 square miles of land• 8 States & 2 Provinces
MONITORING GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS
100 years of coordinated water level data
Forecasting since the 1950s
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MONITORING GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS11
Daily Average Water Levels Based on Lake-Wide Average Network• Lake Superior: Duluth, Marquette, Pt. Iroquois, Thunder Bay, Michipicoten• Lakes Michigan-Huron: Harbor Beach, Ludington, Mackinaw City, Milwaukee, Tobermory, Thessalon• Lake St. Clair: St. Clair Shores, Belle River• Lake Erie: Toledo, Cleveland, Port Stanley, Port Colborne• Lake Ontario: Oswego, Rochester, Toronto, Kingston, Port Weller, Cobourg
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> 1 decade low water
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> 1 decade low water
Record lows
Record low
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LOW WATER IMPACTS
• Access issues• Boat docks, boat launches, and
piers
• Navigation• Carry lighter loads• Groundings
• Increase in beach vegetation
• Increase dredging desired
• Less hydropower generation
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Photo: National Geographic Blog Lisa Borre
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> 1 decade low water
Record lows
Record low
Record Rise
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> 1 decade low water
Record lows
Record low
Record Rise
Record high
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> 1 decade low water
Record lows
Record low
Record Rise
Record high
RecordHighs
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HIGH WATER LEVEL IMPACTS 20
• Shoreline erosion• Less beach
• Property damage
• Greater impact from seiche(wind) events
• Ice jams produce greater chance for flooding
Seiche
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS22
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS23
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS24
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
Snowaccumulation
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS25
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
Snowaccumulation
Snow melt, rainfall,increased runoff
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS26
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
Snowaccumulation
Increasedsunshine warmslake water
Snow melt, rainfall,increased runoff
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS27
WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL
Snowaccumulation
Increasedsunshine warmslake water
Increasedevaporation
Snow melt, rainfall,increased runoff
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS28
Evap
orat
ion
Prec
ipita
tion
Run
off
Net BasinSupply
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS29
Inflow from Upstream Lake E
vapo
ratio
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Prec
ipita
tion
Run
off
Net BasinSupply
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FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS30
Inflow from Upstream Lake E
vapo
ratio
n
Prec
ipita
tion
Outflow
Run
off
Net BasinSupply
Net Total Supply
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CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF ABOVE AVERAGE NET BASIN SUPPLY31
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WET 2013, COLD AND SNOWY 201432
• 2013 was followed by a well above average wet 2014• 2013 was the wettest year on record for the state of Michigan
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WET 2013, COLD AND SNOWY 201433
• Near record high ice cover throughout the Great Lakes in 2014• Below average air temperatures during the winter of 2014
Photo credit: NASA
Ice Cover: March 2014
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• 2018 was again one of the wettest years on record• 2017 was again wettest year on record in Michigan
Wet again in 2017 and 2018
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• 2018 was again one of the wettest years on record• 2017 was again wettest year on record in Michigan
WET AGAIN IN 2017 AND 2018
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AND NOW, 2019…
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AND NOW, 2019…
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AND NOW, 2019…
Source: waterwatch.usgs.gov
April May
June
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GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS
1. Where are they now?(and how did they get here?)
2. How do we forecast them? 3. Where will they be?
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HOW DO WE FORECAST WATER LEVELS?40
Inflow from Upstream Lake E
vapo
ratio
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Prec
ipita
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Outflow
Run
off
Net BasinSupply
Net Total Supply
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FORECASTED PRECIPITATION 41
7 Day QPF
8-14 Day Precipitation Forecast
July Precipitation Forecast
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CLIMATE FORECASTS SUMMER/FALL 2019 42
(July, August, September)
Temperature Precipitation
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MONTHLY FORECAST
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Done at the beginning of each monthForecasts out 6 months
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WEEKLY FORECAST
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Done by Friday morning each weekForecasts out 1 month from that day
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WATER LEVEL OUTLOOK
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What if……
Scenario driven based on historical supplies
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GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS
1. Where are they now?(and how did they get here?)
2. How do we forecast them? 3. Where will they be?
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST47
New record high set in May and June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• New record high expected in July. At old record in August and September
• 11 to 14inches above long term average levels
• Above last year through October
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST48
New record high set in May and June
Projected levels (dashed green line):
• New record high expected in July. At old record in August and September
• 11 to 14inches above long term average levels
• Above last year through October
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
Within 1 inch of record high in June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• Tie record highs in July
• 29 to 31 inches above long term average levels
• 10 to 16 inches above last year’s levels
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
Within 1 inch of record high in June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• Tie record highs in July
• 29 to 31 inches above long term average levels
• 10 to 16 inches above last year’s levels
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
New record high set in May and June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• Sets new record in July, ties record high in August
• 26 to 31 inches above long term average levels
• 4 to 11 inches above last year’s levels
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
New record high set in May and June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• Sets new record in July, ties record high in August
• 26 to 31 inches above long term average levels
• 4 to 11 inches above last year’s levels
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
New record high set in May and June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• New record high expected in July and August
• 23 to 31 inches above long term average levels
• 2 to 12 inches above last year’s levels through November
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
New record high set in May and June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• New record high expected in July and August
• 23 to 31 inches above long term average levels
• 2 to 12 inches above last year’s levels through November
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
New record high set in June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• New record high expected in July
• 11 to 30 inches above long term average levels
• 4 to 28 inches above last year’s levels
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6-MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST
New record high set in June
Projected levels(dashed green line):
• New record high expected in July
• 11 to 30 inches above long term average levels
• 4 to 28 inches above last year’s levels
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GET ALL THE LATEST WATER LEVEL INFORMATION ON OUR WEBPAGE
https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Information.aspx
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LIVING ON THE COAST
https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Portals/69/docs/GreatLakesInfo/docs/CoastalProgram/Living%20on%20the%20Coast%20Booklet.pdf?ver=2016-06-06-105107-683
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https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Portals/69/docs/GreatLakesInfo/docs/CoastalProgram/Living%20on%20the%20Coast%20Booklet.pdf?ver=2016-06-06-105107-683
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EMERGENCY RESPONSE
33 U.S.C. 701n (commonly referred to as Public Law (PL) 84-99):
USACE can support local natural disasters supplementing local resources just prior to or during an event.
Technical Assistance: Technical expertise in review of and recommendations in support of state and local efforts, and helping to determine feasible solutions.
Direct Assistance: Sandbags, plastic sheeting, HESCO barriers, for protection of public infrastructure
Currently providing Technical Assistance to the City of Detroit, Wayne County, Macomb County, and St. Clair County.
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61QUESTIONS?Lauren FryOffice of Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology313 226 [email protected]
Chief, Watershed HydrologyKeith Kompoltowicz313 226 [email protected]
Outreach CoordinatorJim Luke313 226 [email protected]
Emergency ManagerPat Kuhne313 226 [email protected]
Regulatory Department313 226 [email protected]
Credit: DetroitIsIt.com
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
Great lakes water levelsGreat Lakes Water LevelsGreat Lakes Water LevelsSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Notes about water levelsMonitoring Great Lakes Water LevelsMonitoring Great Lakes Water LevelsSlide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Low water impactsSlide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19High water level impactsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsFactors impacting water levelsConsecutive years of above average NET BASIN SUPPLYWet 2013, Cold and snowy 2014Wet 2013, Cold and snowy 2014Slide Number 34Wet again in 2017 and 2018And now, 2019…And now, 2019…And now, 2019…Great Lakes Water LevelsHow do we forecast Water Levels?Forecasted PrecipitationClimate forecasts summer/FAll 2019Monthly forecastWeekly forecastWater level �OutlookGreat Lakes Water Levels6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecast6-Month water level forecastSlide Number 57Get all the latest water level information on our webpageLiving on the Coast EMERGENCY RESPONSESlide Number 61
