Grandparental childcare and parent’s labour supply ... · @CEPS_thinktank Grandparental childcare...
Transcript of Grandparental childcare and parent’s labour supply ... · @CEPS_thinktank Grandparental childcare...
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@CEPS_thinktank
Grandparental childcare and parent’s labour supply: Evidence from Europe
Mikkel Barslund (with Lea Schomaker)FACTAGE / Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund / Forschungsnetwerk Alterssicherung
(FNA) / Society for Social Progress (Berlin, 25 April, 2019)
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Acknowledgements
Joint work with Lea Schomaker.
Part of FACTAGE project – a Joint Programming Initiatve project under More Years Better Lives programme.
BELSPO (Belgian Science Policy Office) finances ‘Belgian part of project’.
More info: www.factage.eu
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The historical importance of grandparents
Photo credits: Catherine Scott - Matti, CC BY-SA 2.0, Wiki Commons
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Motivation
Demographic change
Need for longer working lives (current & future)
More time used for employment by grand-parental generation
Potential less time used for grandparental childcare
Parent’s labour supply may go down
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Potential implicationsThe link:
Potential less time used for grandparental childcare
Parent’s labour supply may go down
Has implications for:
Projections of overall labour supply (from e.g pension reforms), dynamic effects.
Gender equality (if differentiated gender effects).
Inequality (within generations).
Fertility.
Academic outcomes of grandchildren.
General implications for amount of volunteering work.
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Related literature
Main studies:
Dimova/Wolff (2011) - Europe (SHARE)
Assave et al. (2012) – 7 countries (Gender & Generations survey)
Compton/Pollak (2014) – US
Arpino et al. (2014) – Italy
Kanji (2018) - UK
Our contribution:
revisit EU countries
(more) explicit treatment of causal effect
Can include more data points and therefore allow for more heterogeneity (effect of children’s age / mother’s education)
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Data – SHARE survey
Data taken from wave 1-6 of the SHARE survey (2004/5 -2015)
Cover 12 countries: AT, BE, CZ, DK, FR, DE, EL, IT, NL, ES, SE and CH.
Our observed information:
Dependent variable:
mother’s and father’s employment status
Independent variables:
Grandparents caring at least weekly
Number of children (of father and mother)
Age of parent
Age of youngest grandchild
Condition on primary working age (25-54 y/o) and youngest child<10 y/o
Total of 50,000+ observations
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Some descriptive statistics
Share of population being grandparent
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Some descriptive statistics
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2004 2007 2011 2013 2015
Labour Force Participation of Grandparents at Age 55-64
Grandmothers Grandfathers All
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Some descriptive statistics
Some evidence that grandparental care has decreased.
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Estimation
The model
𝑚𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑖 = 𝛼 + 𝛾 ∙ 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑖 + 𝑘 𝛽𝑘𝑥𝑘𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖
mother working is binary (working / not working)grandparental childcare is binary (caring at least weakly / not caring) x other controls
Estimation either by OLS or Maximum Likelihood (probit / logit)
Endogeneity
Estimated partial correlation may not be causal.
OLS-IV and IV-Probit, instruments: Distance between parent and grandparent (0/1, cutoff at 25km)Number of siblings of parent
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Results (1/4)
(1) (3) (5) (6)
Dependent variable:
parent’s work status
(1/0)
WOMEN MEN WOMEN
Waves 4-6
WOMEN
Wave 1
Weekly childcare
(incl. daily care)
0.112***
(0.00963)
0.0097
(0.00630)
0.093***
(0.0125)
0.138***
(0.0193)
Observations 27,231 26,260 17,505 4,648
R-squared 0.140 0.055 0.131 0.134
OLS – Pooled sample
Sample: SHARE waves 1, 2, 4, 5, 6. Parent aged 25-54 who has less than 5 children and at least one child who is 10 years old or younger.Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. OLS regressions.
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Results (2/4)OLS-IV – Pooled sample
Sample: SHARE waves 1, 2, 4, 5, 6. Parent aged 25-54 who has less than 5 children and at least one child who is 10 years old or younger.Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. OLS regressions.
Dependent variable: Employed
Looking after grandchildren
(at least once per week)
0.134***
(0.029)
Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F
statistic
891.76
Hansen J statistic, Chi2(1) 0.195
(p=.66)
Observations 24,709
R-squared 0.137
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Results (3/4)OLS-IV – country specific results
Sample: SHARE waves 1, 2, 4, 5, 6. Parent aged 25-54 who has less than 5 children and at least one child who is 10 years old or younger.Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. OLS regressions.
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Results (4/4)Further results based on pooled sample:
Grandchild age (some importance)
Parents education (not very important)
Macroeconomic importance (approx. 2% LS increase for 25-54 y/o women).
On validity of instruments:
Falsification procedure based on adults not (yet) parents.
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Limitations
A lot of noise in key measurements.
One can criticize the instrumental strategy.
Country heterogeneity large (child care service, parental leave policies).
Longevity and increasing age of first birth
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Concluding
Link between grandparental care and maternal labour supply
Country differences prevalent
Large samples needed to tease out effects
Speaks to the wider issue of ‘total effect’ of longer working lives.
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