Grand OverviewGrand Overview

Over consumption will lead to Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventuallyresource scarcity eventually

That time is near for fossil That time is near for fossil fuels as our energy fuels as our energy foundationfoundation

Consumption is the sole end and pConsumption is the sole end and purpose of all productionurpose of all production

Adam Smith – right up there with Aristotle!

1947 Prophecy1947 Prophecy

• A society in which consumption has A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste. founded on trash and waste.

Consumption with a ConscienceConsumption with a Conscience

The traditional Economic Argument The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale!Does Not Scale!

Global Consequences of Global Global Consequences of Global ConsumptionConsumption

And We Have Known this Crunch And We Have Known this Crunch was coming for quite some timewas coming for quite some time

The Business As Usual FutureThe Business As Usual Future

Continued ConsumptionContinued Consumption

Continued Climate ChangeContinued Climate Change

What Are the BAU Options?What Are the BAU Options?

• LNG development• “Clean Coal”• Fast Breeder

Reactors• Unconventional Oil

sources (shale oil and tar sands)

• Fastest gateway to energy economy

• Leads to Growth of GDP

• Accelerates Global CO2 Deposition

• Reinforces BAU – mine the planet

Breaking out of BAU

Consume less Drive less Plan ahead Invest in Renewable

Energy infrastructure Have long term

governmental goals

Requires some component of morality based decision making

Requires leadership Requires world

cooperation

But Many Options Now ExistBut Many Options Now Exist

Solar PVSolar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal ElectricSolar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol

(grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, (grain and celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids)hybrids)

Biomass Co-GenerationBiomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf CurrentOTEC; Gulf Current

Barriers to RenewablesBarriers to Renewables

High capital cost; long payback timesHigh capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box Lack of any vision or out of the box

thinkingthinking NIMBY reactions to anything and NIMBY reactions to anything and

everythingeverything Technology uncertaintyTechnology uncertainty Electrical Grid limitationsElectrical Grid limitations

Solar Pros and ConsSolar Pros and Cons

• Pros• Resource is available• CSP technology

rapidly improving• Many small scale

applications• Thermal Electric is

dispatchable• Can co-locate with

Fossil Plan

• Cons• Large $/Watt

installation costs• Large Scale (1000

MW or greater) facilities difficult

• Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7

Wind Pros and ConsWind Pros and Cons

• Pros• Low levelized costs• Small footprint on the

Land• Applicable on both

large and small scale• Some wind resources

is usually always present

• Cons• Visual Pollution• Resource is erratic in

nature and therefore requires energy storage

• Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large

Transportation ChangesTransportation Changes

• Pros• Single biggest lever

arm for energy conservation

• Single biggest lever arm for global climate change

• Single biggest influence on development

• Cons• Marx says we can’t• Our whole economic

structure is based on private vehicles

• Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our current structure

Bio MassBio Mass

• Pros• Simple technology• Good Co-generation

device• Makes reasonable

use of agricultural waste

• Creates Jobs

• Cons• Transport of Wet

Crops is energy intensive

• Creates pollutants• Not clear if there is a

net energy gain• Not practical on large

scale

OTEC; Gulf CurrentOTEC; Gulf Current

• Pros• Has enough capacity

to sustain world for centuries

• In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy

• Cons• Gigantic up front

costs• Engineering

challenge• Requires world

cooperation

Be OptimisticBe Optimistic

Change can occur – this class is part Change can occur – this class is part of this processof this process

Individual attitudes matter and thus Individual attitudes matter and thus individuals can influence othersindividuals can influence others

Many clever and dedicated people Many clever and dedicated people are now addressing this problemare now addressing this problem

Technology is rapidly improvingTechnology is rapidly improving Wisdom can be re-acquired –Wisdom can be re-acquired –

remember Fred!remember Fred!