Graedel Presentation

7/27/2019 Graedel Presentation

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The Criticality of Materials

Thomas E. GraedelYale University

Center for Industrial EcologyYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies


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Neutron CaptureDuring Supernova explosion neutrons are captured by

the elements present in the star to form heavier elements

single neutron capture56

26Fe +10n 5726Fe 5727Co + 0-1e

57

27

Co + 1

0

n 5827

Co 5828

Ni + 0

-1

e

etc

OR

multiple neutron capture

5626Fe + 23

10n 7926Fe 7935Br + 9 0-1e


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11 Elements

+4 Elements

Metal Linkages in the New Mineralogy

+45 Elements(Potential)

Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006


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Elemental Functions in Electronics

Germanium semiconductors

Copper circuit connections Tantalum capacitor

Antimony diodes Yttrium red phosphor

Indium transistors

Terbium green phosphor activator

Hafnium transistor insulator


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11 ELEMENTS

15 ELEMENTS

60 ELEMENTS


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Turbine Airfoils for Energy and Aviation


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Superalloy

Coatings

Elemental Usage in Superalloy Turbine Airfoils

15 elements


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The No-Build Periodic Table

+45 Elements(Potential)

Dy: Electric motors

P: Food

Re: Jet engines

Ta: Electronics

V: Steel

alloys Rh: Catalytic

converters

In: Flat panel

displays

U: Nuclear power


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Trends in Metal Production

0

160

320

480

640

800

960

1845 1860 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010

AnnualProdu

ction:Cu,

Au,

Pb

,Ni,FeOre,

Diam

onds,

Bauxite

0

840

1,680

2,520

3,360

4,200

5,040

AnnualProduction:MnOre,

Ag,

Zn

Copper (kt Cu)

Gold (t Au)

Lead (kt Pb)

Nickel (kt Ni)

Iron Ore (Mt)

Diamonds (Mcarats)

Bauxite (Mt)

Manganese (kt Mn ore)

Silver (t Ag)

Zinc (kt Zn)

??

G. Mudd, 2009, Sustainabili ty of Mining ...


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Trends in Ore Grades

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Ore

Grades(Cu,

Au,

Pb,

Zn,

Ni,Diamo

nds)

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

3,000

3,600

OreGrade(Ag)

Copper (%Cu)

Gold (g/t Au)

Lead (%Pb)

Zinc (%Zn)

Nickel (%Ni)

Diamonds (carats/t)

Uranium (kg/t U3O8)

Silver (g/t Ag)

Gold: 1857 - 50.05; 1858 - 41.23; 1859 - 37.27

G. Mudd, 2009, Sustainabili ty of Mining ...


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Eras of Elemental Histories

Annualrate

ofuse

Era of Era of Era of Era of

Discovery Experimentation Exploitation Scarcity

??


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http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Campbell/commons.htm

The Exploitation Curve for a Resource Deposit


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www.grinningplanet.com/.../peak-oil-article.htm

Peak Oil A Typical Assessment
http://www.grinningplanet.com/2005/06-14/peak-oil-article.htmhttp://www.grinningplanet.com/2005/06-14/peak-oil-article.htm


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The Quest for Unobtainium

Source: gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog...

Source: www.parantar.com/.../
http://gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog/archive/2009/12/11/issue-201-avatar-terminology-homage-coincidence-or-crazy.aspxhttp://gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog/archive/2009/12/11/issue-201-avatar-terminology-homage-coincidence-or-crazy.aspxhttp://www.parantar.com/2009/12/watch-avatar-movie-online-free/http://www.parantar.com/2009/12/watch-avatar-movie-online-free/http://gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog/archive/2009/12/11/issue-201-avatar-terminology-homage-coincidence-or-crazy.aspx


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Why Dont We Get MetalsFrom Recycling?


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Brake Linings: An Example of Dissipative Use

Brake linings contain phenolic resin binder, clay and powder fillers, graphite

lubricants, and metallic fibers (Ba, Ca, Ti, Cu, Mg, Cr, Sb, Zn, Zr )

Image courtesy of Sansin Brake Co., etrade.daegu.go.kr/.../Brake_Lining.html
http://etrade.daegu.go.kr/co/sangsinbrake/GC00388153/CA00388212/Brake_Lining.htmlhttp://etrade.daegu.go.kr/co/sangsinbrake/GC00388153/CA00388212/Brake_Lining.html


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Electronics in the Trash:

An Example of Fragmentary Collection

Courtesy of Gothamist.LLC, gothamist.com/2008/02/16/electronics_rec.php


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Processing Failures:

Electronic Waste Recycling in India

Courtesy of D. Rochat, EMPA, Switzerland


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End of Life Recycling Rate (Global) for Sixty-Two Metals

UNEP Evaluation as of January, 2010

>50% >25-50% >10-25% 1-10%


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The U.S. National Academy ofSciences 2007 Study of Resource

Sustainability


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High

Low

Low High

Supply Risk

Impact

ofSupplyRestriction

Determining a Materials Criticality


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The First Dimension of Criticality

Supply risk

Geologic availability -- Technical availabilityRegulatory availability -- Geopolit ical availability

Social availability -- Market availability


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The Second Dimension of Criticality:

Impacts of Supply RestrictionPrevents manufacture

Impedes product development

Influences profitability


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High

Low

Low High

Supply Risk

Impact

ofSupplyRestriction

Identifying the Region of Danger

Regionof

Danger


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11 Minerals Evaluated


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A Possible Major New Supply Risk Scenario

High

Low

Low High

Supply Risk

Impact

ofSupplyRestriction Region

of

Danger

T.E.

Graedel,

2009

2010

2020

2030


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A Possible Major New Use Scenario

High

Low

Low High

Supply Risk

Importanceofuse

s

Regionof

Danger

T.E.

Graedel,

2007

2010

2020

2030


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The Yale Criticality Project

NSF funded, 2009-2012

Several undergraduates, several mastersstudents

5-10 hours per week each


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Goals of the Yale Criticality Project

Developing a defendable and workablemethodology for evaluating the degree to

which a metal is critical Using the methodology, evaluate the

criticality of a number of different metals

Create a family of scenarios to study the

possible evolution of metal criticality


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Addressing the X-Axis:

Supply Risk


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X Axis Supply Risk

SR

GTE S&R GP

PRB SRB PPI EPI PSI HHI


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Key Questions to be Answered

What components should be included?

How can the inclusion of these components be

justified?

How can these components be evaluated?

How should the component evaluations be

aggregated?


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The Supply Risk Analytical Sequence

Supply

Risk

Geol/Tech/Econ

Social/Reg

Geopoli-tical

PRB SRB PPI PSI TRI


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Fraser Institute (Vancouver, BC)

Annual Survey of Mining Companies

Purpose:Assess how public policy factors

such as taxation and regulation affectexploration investment

Participants: Executives and explorationmanagers in mining and mining consulting

companies

Coverage: 71 jurisdictions worldwide

(subnational in Canada, Australia, USA)


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Fraser Institute Evaluation Methodology

Composite index of 13 factors (taxation,

uncertainty concerning native land claims,security, environmental regulation, etc.)

Scoring (1): For an individual factors, ifevery

respondent evaluates a jurisdiction as 1, itreceives a score of 100, as so on down

Scoring (2): The 13 factor scores for a

jurisdiction are added, and a perfect score again

normalized to 100


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Fraser Institute Survey Results, 2008-2009

Top ten: Quebec, Wyoming, Nevada,Alberta, Newfoundland, New Brunswick,

Manitoba, Chile, Saskatchewan, Ontario Bottom ten: Venezuela, Ecuador,

Guatemala, Honduras, India, Bolivia,

Zimbabwe, Kyrgyzstan, D.R. Congo,Indonesia

Th P li P t ti l I d


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The Policy Potential Index

2008/09PolicyPotentialIndex

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

PPI Index

Norm

aliz

ed

score


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Addressing the Y-Axis:

Impact of Supply Restriction


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Y Axis Impact of Supply Restriction - National

Impact of

Supply

Restriction

ImportanceSubstitutabili

ty

Import

Reliance

(%)

Industries

impactedPerformance Availability

Environment

al

impact ratio

Percent of

Citizens

impacted

Innovation

Impact ofSupply


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Supply

Restriction

Importance Substitutability

Economic

Cost

Price

volatility

Passthrough

prospects

Evaluating the Y Axis


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Direct Economic Considerations

Risk Level Impacted revenue 5-yr price volatilityAbility to pass-through

cost increases

Very high >1000 ppm Revenue >500% Nearly impossible

High >100 ppm Revenue 200-500% Difficult

Medium >10 ppm Revenue 100-200% Partially possible

Low >1 ppm Revenue 50-100% Relatively easy

Very low


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ISR

I S

IR PT PS AS EIRCS

CI

PR

SR

GTE S&R GP

PRB SRB PPI EPI PSI HHI

The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept

EI


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Criticality Project Philosophy

Address all issues that could influence

availability or technological interest

Where possible, use existing, widely-accepted metrics


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Current Beta Test Elements

Copper Our baseline element for

evaluation. No shortage of information,and important uses in power distribution

Cadmium A byproduct metal, widelyused in batteries, highly toxic

Tantalum Crucial metal for electronics,

serious geopolitical concerns


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Can we stave off this

problem, or at least

buy some time?


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A Mine of the Past:

(Bingham Canyon, UT Copper Mine)


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Finding the Missing Resource


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A Mine of the Future

SRB estimate vs PRB estimate of Stock of Global Copper


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0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

S

tock

Estimate

SRB

PRB


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The On Ramp

Capacity control

(commuter

buses, etc.)

The Off Ramp

Enabling Materials Use and Reuse


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IMPORT/EXPORT

ORE ENVIRONMENT

PROCESS-

ING

FABRICA-

TIONUSE WASTE

MGT.

IMPORT/EXPORT

ORE ENVIRONMENT

PROCESS-

ING

FABRICA-

TIONUSE DISCARD

MGT.

STAF Project

Yale University 2004The On Ramp The Off Ramp

g

Capacity Control byDematerialized Design


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POSSIBLY LIMITED RESOURCES

Resource appears small relative to annual

extraction: Au, Cu, PGMs Resource seems to have no obvious

substitutes: In, Re, Li, Hf, Er, others

Hitchhiker availability only: Cd, Ga, Te, In,

others

Very large energy requirements: Al, Ti

Toxicity limited: Pb, Hg, As, Cd


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Tomorrows Periodic Table?


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Summary

The industrial sector uses essentially all of theperiodic table

Elemental choices that appear (at least in the shortto medium term) to be unsubstitutable are

increasingly used in modern technology

Research is now underway to make a realisticassessment of criticality for a number of metals

A strong effort to reuse materials buys time totransform technology into a more sustainable form


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