Government Securities Management - DJPPR · OUTLINE 1. Government Securities Management and...
Transcript of Government Securities Management - DJPPR · OUTLINE 1. Government Securities Management and...
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Directorate of Government Debt Securities Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Government Securities Management December 28, 2015
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OUTLINE
1. Government Securities Management and Financing Strategy
2. Government Securities Performance
3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework
4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile
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DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice.
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Government Securities Management and
Financing Strategy
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General Strategy for Debt Financing 2015
1. Optimizes Governments securities (SBN) issuance from domestic sources to fulfill Budget need and uses
foreign debts as complimentary;
2. Debt instruments take into account of market need:
in regard to market development and portfolio management;
3. Issues Retail Bond for instrument diversification and financial inclusion;
4. Optimizes foreign and domestic loan instrument to fulfill Budget need on capital expenditure;
5. Conducts active portfolio management of Government securities through, among others, debt buyback
and debt switch, in order to promote market liquidity and stability;
6. Strengthens the function of Investor Relations Unit, among others, through the proactive dissemination of
information, rapid and effective responses, and effective communication with investors and other stakeholders.
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Financing Trend, 2004 2015
(trillion IDR)
Notes: * Preliminary 2014 ** Revised Budget 2015
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015**
Govt Securities - net 6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 91.1 119.9 159.7 224.7 265.0 297.7
Domestic Loan - - - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.7
External Loan - net (28.1) (10.3) (26.6) (26.6) (18.4) (12.4) (4.6) (17.8) (23.5) (5.8) (15.4) (20.0)
Others/Non-Debt - net 42.0 (1.2) 20.0 9.1 16.6 25.5 4.6 28.3 38.1 18.1 (12.2) (65.5)
Budget Defisit, % to GDP 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.9
1.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
0.1
1.6
0.7
1.1
1.9
2.3 2.2
1.9
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
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Government Budget FY 2015
6
In billion IDR
Financing sources
Revised Budget 2015
come from debt
financing (85 .78 %
from Government
Securities, 9.62 %
from Loan) and the
rest 4.61 % from non
debt financing .
Stand -by loans are in
place to anticipate
adverse situations .
A. Total Revenue 1,793,588.9 16.1 1,761,642.8 15.1
B. Total Expenditure 2,039,483.6 18.3 1,984,149.7 17.0
Interest Payment 151,968.3 1.4 155,730.9 1.3
C. Primary Balance (93,926.4) (0.8) (66,776.0) (0.6)
D. Deficit (245,894.7) (2.2) (222,506.9) (1.9)
E. Financing 245,894.7 2.2 222,506.9 1.9
I. Non Debt (8,961.2) (0.1) (56,874.0) (0.5)
II. Debt 254,855.9 2.3 279,380.9 2.4
1. Government Securities (Net) 277,049.8 2.5 297,698.4 2.5
2. Loan (Net) (22,193.9) (0.2) (18,317.5) (0.2)
i. Foreign Loan (Net) (23,815.1) (0.2) (20,008.1) (0.2)
Disbursement 47,037.1 0.4 48,647.0 0.4
- Program Loan 7,140.0 0.1 7,500.0 0.1
- Project Loan 39,897.1 0.4 41,147.0 0.4
On Lending (4,319.4) (0.0) (4,471.9) (0.0)
Foreign Loan Principal Payment (66,532.8) (0.6) (64,183.2) (0.5)
ii. Domestic Loan (Net) 1,621.2 0.0 1,690.6 0.0
Disbursement 2,000.0 0.0 2,000.0 0.0
Domestic Loan Principal Payment (378.8) (0.0) (309.4) (0.0)
Assumptions :
GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y) 11,146,943.0 11,700,808.0
Growth (%) 5.8 5.7
Inflation (%) y-o-y 4.4 5.0
3-month-SPN (%) 6.0 6.2
IDR/USD (average) 11,900 12,500
% to
GDPBudget
% to
GDP
Revised
Budget
2015
Description
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Government Securities Financing (Gross) 2015
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(in billion Rp)
Original
1.9%2.23% 2.59%
Revenue 1,761.6 1,649.7 1,561.9
Expenditure 1,984.1 1,909.7 1,860.4
Surplus/(Defisit) (222.5) (260.0) (298.5)
Additional Financing 37.5 76.0
Cash Financing 459.7 497.2 535.6
Government Securities (gross) 452.2 461.7 481.2
Domestic 339.3 348.8 361.4
Government Debt Securities 261.3 263.9 276.6
Sukuk 78.0 84.9 84.9
Global Bond 112.9 113.0 119.7
Government Debt Securities 86.5 86.6 93.3
Sukuk 26.4 26.4 26.4
External Loan 7.5 35.5 54.5
Budget Deficit Domestic: Auction:
conventional securities: 23 x
Islamic securities: 22 x
Non-Auction:
retail bonds: ORI + Sukuk Retail.
International Bonds:
Issuance of International Bonds as
complement to avoid crowding out in
domestic market and provide benchmark for
corporate issuance, consist of USD, YEN or
EURO global bonds
Maximum issuance international bond 30%
from target gross
Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and
ATM target:
GDS (SUN): 75.9%
Sukuk: 24.1%
ATM for GS (SBN): 8.4 year
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Securities Financing Realization 2015
* Under scenario Deficit 2.78% of GDP
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ExplanationRevised Budget
2015*
Realization
(a.o.Dec 4, 2015)*
% Realization to
Revised Budget
2015
Government Securities Net 349,944,127 349,944,128 100.00%
Government Securities Maturing in 2015 and Buyback 152,418,614 152,418,614 100.00%
Issuance Need 2015 * 502,362,741 502,362,741 100.00%
Government Debt Securities (GDS) 384,401,563
Domestic GDS 297,832,874
-Coupon GDS 202,110,000
-Conventional T-Bills 52,200,000
-Private Placement 16,084,119
-Retail Bonds 27,438,755
International Bonds 86,568,689
-USD GMTN 50,372,939
-Euro GMTN 18,473,050
-Samurai Bonds 11,054,200
-Domestic GDS 6,668,500
Government Islamic Debt Securities 117,961,178
Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 91,539,178
- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based
Sukuk) 59,990,000
- Retail Sukuk 21,965,035
- Private Placement 9,584,143
Global Sukuk 26,422,000
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GOVERNMENT SECURITIES FINANCING
STRATEGY 2016
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GENERAL DEBT FINANCING STRATEGY 2016
DEBT POLICY IN 2016 BUDGET
1. Manageable Debt-to-GDP
ratio 2. Financial inclusion &
market deepening
3. Debt issuance for productive
activity 4. Selective external loan
(infrastructure and energy
sector)
5. Loan as an alternative
instrument for financing
6. Active debt management
and ALM
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Description 2016 BudgetA. Total Revenue 1,822.5
I. Domestic Revenue 1,820.5
1. Taxation 1,546.7
2. Non-Taxation 273.8
II. Grant 2.0
B. Government Spending 2,095.7
I. Central Government Spending 1,325.6
1. Ministerial Spending 784.1
2. Non-Ministerial Spending 541.4
II. Fund Transfer and Village Fund 770.2
C. Primary Balance (88.2)
D. Deficit (273.2)
Deficit to GDP (2.1%)
E. Financing 273.2
I. Domestic 272.8
a. Domestic Banks 5.5
b. Domestic Non-Banks 267.3
1. Government Securities (net) 327.2
2. Capital Injection (48.4)
II. Foreign 0.4
Surplus (Deficit) Funding
GOVERNMENT BUDGET FOR 2016
In IDR Trillion, where applicable
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GOVERNMENT SECURITIES INDICATIVE FINANCING
PLAN FOR 2016
Domestic Bonds
International Bonds Issuance (USD, EUR, JPY-denominated)
Weekly Auction:
Conventional securities:
23 x
Islamic securities: 23 x
Non-Auction:
Retail bonds: SR (Q1), SBR (Q2), Sukuk Tabungan
(Q3), and ORI (Q4)
Private Placement Based on request
Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consists of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds
Maximum issuance international bond 30% from target gross
Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target
Government Debt Securities (SUN): 76 %; Sukuk: 24% ATM for Goverrnment Securities (SBN) by auction: 10-12 year.
Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn)
Preliminary Budget
Government Securities (Net) 327,224
Redemption 187,202
Cash Management 15,000
Buyback 3,000
Government Securities (Gross) 532,426
Composition
Domestic 76%
Auction 66%
Non-Auction 10%
International Bond 24%
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Government Securities Performance
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids
Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)
14 14
Average Foreign incoming bids 2015 is Rp6.87T, compare to period in 2014, which reached 7.58T
Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp20.84T, decrease from average incoming bids 2014 = Rp22.65T
Average awarded bid 2015 = Rp10.59T while average awarded bid 2014 = Rp10.97 T.
Average incoming bids
2014 = Rp22,65T/auction
Average awarded bids
2014 = Rp10,97T/auction
GDS Primary Market Performance 2015
*as of Dec 1, 2015
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 1-Des-15
Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)
15 15
Average Foreign incoming bids 2015 is Rp4.65T
Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp14.05T, average incoming bids 2014 = Rp14.02T
Average awarded bid 2015 = Rp6.75T, while average awarded bid 2014 = Rp6.52T.
Avr . Awarded bids
2014 = 6,52T
Avr . Incoming Bid 2014: 14,02T
Avr . Foreign Incoming Bid 2014:
4,42T
GS Primary Market Performance 2015
*as of Dec 1, 2015
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Primary Market Performance 2015: Global Bonds
RI0125 RI0145 SNI-25 RIEUR0725
Summary Terms of Offering
Issuer
Issuer RatingsBBB- Stable (Fitch)
Issue Ratings Baa3 (Moody's) / BB+ (S&P) / BBB- (Fitch)
Issue USD fixed rate EUR fixed rate
Size USD2 billion USD2 billion USD2 billion EUR1,250 billion
Pricing / Settlement Date 8 January / 15 January 2015 8 January / 15 January 2015 21 May / 28 May 2015 23 July / 31 July 2015
Maturity 10 years due 15 January 2025 30 years due 15 January 2045 10 years due 28 May 2025 30 July 2025
Coupon 4.125% payable semi annually 5.125% payable semi annually 4.325% payable semi annualy 3,375% payable semi annually
Reoffer Yield / Price 4.200% / 99.393% 5.200% / 98.867% 4.325% / 100% 3,555% / 98,507%
Format Rule 144A / Reg S Rule 144A / Reg S Reg-S/144 A Rule 144A / Reg S
Listing SGX-ST SGX-ST SGX-ST & Nasdaq Dubai SGX-ST, Frankfurt Open Market
Total Book Order USD10.05 billion USD9.23 billion USD6.8 billion EUR2,4 billion
DistributionIndonesia 13%, Asia 15%,
Europe 24%, USA 48%
Indonesia 4%, Asia 20%, Europe
23%, USA 53%
Indonesia 10%, Asia 12%, Europe 16%, USA
21%, Islamic & Middle East investor 41%Indonesia 7%, Asia 13%, Europe 43%, USA 37%
Investor Type
Fund / Asset Managers 73%,
Banks 14%, Insurance /
Pension Funds 9%, Private
Banks 2%, SWF 2%
Fund / Asset Managers 75%,
Banks 8%, Insurance / Pension
Funds 13%, Private Banks 2%,
SWF 2%
Fund / Asset Managers 39%, Banks 42%,
Central Bank 15%, Inssurance Companies 2%,
Private Bank 2%
Fund / Asset Managers 66%, Banks/Private Banks 16%,
Insurance / Pension Funds 9%, Central Banks/Sovereigen
Funds 9%
USD fixed rate
Republic of Indonesia
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Primary Market Performance 2015: Samurai Bonds
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Summary Terms of Offering RIJPY0818 RIJPY0820 RIJPY0825
Issuer
Issue Ratings BBB- (JCRA), BBB- (R&I), Baa3 (Moody), BBB- (Fitch) BBB- (JCRA), BBB- (R&I), Baa3 (Moody), BBB- (Fitch)
Issue JPY fixed rate JPY fixed rate JPY fixed rate
Size JPY22,5 bilion JPY22,5 bilion JPY55 billion
Pricing / Settlement Date 04 August/ 13 August 2015 04 August/ 13 August 2015 04 August/ 13 August 2015
Maturity 13 August 2018 13 August 2020 13 August 2025
Coupon 1,08% 1,38% 0,91%
Price 100% 100% 100%
Spread Over Yen Swap Other Side 87 bps over JP 3yr Swap 108 bps over JP 5yr Swap 27 bps over JP 10yr Swap
Yen Swap Rate 0,21% 0,30% 0,64%
Total Book Order JPY 22,5 billion JPY 22,5 billion JPY82,9 billion
Distribution Asia 100% Asia 100% Asia 100%
Investor Type
City Bank 65.5%, Specialized Banks 5.8%, Public Funds 0.9%,
Life Insurance 8.7%, Property Insurance 1.8%, Regional Banks
4.2%, Shinkins 12.2%, Others 0.9%
Republic of Indonesia
City Bank 17.8%, Trust Banks 1.3%, Public Funds 29.1%, Life Insurance 3.3%, Regional Banks 7.1%, Shinkins 0.2%, Others
41.2%
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4.39 5.88 5.73 5.31
7.91 10.91 11.11 9.18 6.39 9.37 12.33 8.21 10.90 8.89 7.52 9.07 7.90
0.22
0.16 0.38 0.41
0.76
1.14 0.81
0.77
0.62
0.50
0.53
0.83
0.77
0.72 0.52
0.68 0.80
0.34
1.54 3.07
6.30
8.80
7.45 7.19
4.84
4.65
3.39
6.48 10.94
12.57
12.87
17.69 15.61
20.32
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
OUTRIGHT REPO BANK REPO BI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Spread (bid-ask)
As of December 8, 2015 [In Percentage]
Activities of the domestic bonds are growing Yield s of Benchmark Series steadily decrease
Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond
As of December 8, 2015
As of December 22, 2015
Secondary Market Performance
18
5.12
7.04
5.15
14.12 12.88
10.75 10.53
-
3.00
6.00
9.00
12.00
15.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Spread 8.528 bps
(ask 8.48 bid
8.576)
2468
10121416182022
Des'0
8
Apr'0
9
Ag
ust'0
9
Des'0
9
Apr'1
0
Ag
ust'1
0
Des'1
0
Apr'1
1
Ag
ust'1
1
Des'1
1
Apr'1
2
Ag
ust'1
2
Des'1
2
Apr'1
3
Ag
ust'1
3
Des'1
3
Apr'1
4
Ag
ust'1
4
Des'1
4
Apr'1
5
Ag
ust'1
5
Des'1
5
5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
8.49 (5Y), 8.52 (10Y), 8.66 (15Y), 8.8 (20Y)
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Market Watch as of December 29, 2015
Source: Asian Bonds Online
Yield GS
19
Source: IDMA, Bloomberg, as of December 28, 2015
LCY 10 Year
Government
Bonds
Latest Yield YTD Change (BP)
MTD
Change
(BP)
HK 1.540 -35.6 -2.5
ID 8.754 +95.8 +14.3
JP 0.267 -6.2 -4.0
KR 2.097 -50.8 -15.0
MY 4.234 +8.7 +3.5
PH 4.099 +23.5 +2.9
SG 2.410 +12.9 -10.2
TH 2.516 -21.3 -21.1
US 2.230 +5.9 +2.4
VN 7.200 -3.0 -0.8 -
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
28 Dec '15 21 Dec '15
27 Nov '15 9 Feb '12
23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08
13 Sep'05
[in percentage]
Tenor 28-Dec-15 21-Dec-15 27-Nov-15 9-Feb-12 23-Sep-11 27-Oct-08 13 Sep'05
1Y 7.27 7.48 7.06 3.30 5.29 19.37
2Y 8.35 8.42 7.94 4.21 6.01 17.35 14.59
3Y 8.64 8.61 8.34 4.33 6.13 19.93
4Y 8.68 8.64 8.35 4.39 6.54 17.17 14.14
5Y 8.75 8.69 8.52 4.44 6.69 17.46 14.96
6Y 8.78 8.75 8.59 4.79 6.81 17.05 15.24
7Y 8.79 8.76 8.59 4.88 7.08 17.06 16.17
10Y 8.89 8.86 8.73 5.02 7.43 20.91 15.75
15Y 9.03 8.95 8.83 5.47 7.83 16.65 14.12
20Y 9.01 9.00 8.79 5.96 8.20 20.27
30Y 9.27 9.35 9.14 6.17 8.29 20.37
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Ownership of Tradable Domestic Government
Securities
20
(in trillion Rp)
`
Banks 217,27 33,88% 265,03 36,63% 299,66 36,73% 335,43 33,70% 375,55 31,04% 372,66 29,95% 369,11 27,21% 413,99 28,79% 371,50 25,56%
Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia*) 17,42 2,72% 7,84 1,08% 3,07 0,37% 44,44 4,47% 41,63 3,44% 38,37 3,08% 80,58 5,94% 67,09 4,67% 128,77 8,86%
Non-Banks 406,53 63,40% 450,75 62,29% 517,53 63,09% 615,38 61,83% 792,78 65,52% 833,42 66,97% 906,74 66,85% 956,85 66,54% 953,15 65,58%
Mutual Funds 51,16 7,98% 47,22 6,53% 43,19 5,27% 42,50 4,27% 45,79 3,78% 47,16 3,79% 56,28 4,15% 59,47 4,14% 60,79 4,18%
Insurance Company 79,30 12,37% 93,09 12,86% 83,42 10,17% 129,55 13,02% 150,60 12,45% 149,95 12,05% 161,81 11,93% 170,86 11,88% 171,98 11,83%
Foreign Holders 195,76 30,53% 222,86 30,80% 270,52 32,98% 323,83 32,54% 461,35 38,13% 500,83 40,25% 537,53 39,63% 548,52 38,15% 550,72 37,89%
Foreign Govt's&Central Banks** 50,06 6,10% 78,39 7,88% 103,42 8,55% 104,66 8,41% 102,34 7,54% 109,49 7,61% 110,32 7,59%
Pension Fund 36,75 5,73% 34,39 4,75% 56,46 6,88% 39,47 3,97% 43,30 3,58% 43,00 3,46% 46,32 3,42% 48,69 3,39% 49,56 3,41%
Securities Company 0,13 0,02% 0,14 0,02% 0,30 0,04% 0,88 0,09% 0,81 0,07% 0,65 0,05% 0,74 0,05% 0,15 0,01% 0,02 0,00%
Individual 32,48 3,26% 30,41 2,51% 28,35 2,28% 32,23 2,38% 52,40 3,64% 43,04 2,96%
Others 43,43 6,77% 53,05 7,33% 63,64 7,76% 46,68 4,69% 60,51 5,00% 63,49 5,10% 71,82 5,29% 76,76 5,34% 77,05 5,30%
Total 641,21 100% 723,61 100% 820,27 100% 995,25 100% 1.209,96 100% 1.244,45 100% 1.356,43 100% 1.437,93 100% 1.453,43 100%
1) Including ownership of SBSN (government sukuk).
2) Foreign are consisted of Private Banking, Fund/Asset Management, Securities, Insurance, Pension Fund.
3) Others are consisted of Corporation, Individual, Foundation.
*) Since February 8th, 2008, repo transaction of Government Securities to Bank Indonesia was included.
**) Since November 21, 2014, foreign government(s) was included to the same category as foreign central bank(s).
Dec'28-2015Dec-13Dec-12Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15
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Foreign Investor Activity (yearly)
21
Foreign Net Buy/Sell up to September (YTD) & yearly total (IDR) trillion)
Investors Net Buy/Sell (IDR trillion)
Source: Bank Indonesia
Foreign investors (Asing) recorded a net buy of IDR81.02 trillion (year to date). While during the year of 2014 foreign net buy reached IDR137.52 trillion. In October 2015 foreign investor recorded net buy of IDR67.41 trillion, thus during November 2015 (until 25th November), net buy reached IDR13.61 trillion.
Note: as of November 25, 2015
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Domestic 55.29 49.00 121.68 77.19 137.94
Foreign 27.10 47.67 53.31 137.52 81.02
Total 82.39 96.66 174.99 214.71 218.97
27.10
47.67
53.31
137.52
81.02
24.03
27.47
47.59
136.03
67.41
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Oktober YTD
-
Foreign Investor Activity
Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor [In IDR Trillion]
Foreign investors mostly dominated by high quality long term investors
22
As of December 28, 2015
5,20% 4,65% 5,38% 4,45% 3,33% 3,31% 3,85% 3,28%
5,41% 3,73% 2,89% 2,34%
1,54% 1,51% 1,54% 1,35%
12,88% 15,23% 12,92%
12,46% 11,43% 11,02%
12,30% 11,88%
32,04% 33,58% 34,88%
36,18%
39,69% 39,50% 36,98%
38,31%
44,46% 42,81% 43,94% 44,56% 44,00% 44,67% 45,33% 45,18%
32,54%
38,13% 38,61% 39,63%
37,59% 37,10% 38,15% 37,89%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec 13 Dec 14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 28 Dec-15
0-1 -2 -5 -10 %Foreign Ownership of Total
8,44
(0,88)
17,97
4,22
(19,98)
2,81
(1,76)
10,13
23,98
6,08
(0,37)
4,82
16,49 15,77 16,10
20,15
6,43
14,67 15,95
13,17 12,49
21,34
(19,84)
39,48
6,84
(3,59)
4,10 6,31
23,04
(3,90)
(7,96)
(2,30)
5,39
8,38
13,57
-0,08
-0,06
-0,04
-0,02
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
(30,00)
(20,00)
(10,00)
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
Fe
b-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-13
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
Fe
b-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Au
g-14
Oct-
14
Dec-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Au
g-15
Oct-
15
28
De
c 1
5
Capital Inflows [LHS] capital inflows over foreign [RHS]
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Crisis Management Protocol &
Bond Stabilization Framework
-
Pre-emptive Measures
Implementing Crisis Management Protocol
(CMP)
Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework
(BSF)
Enhancing coordination between government
institutions and continuous dialogue with market
participants
Specific policies in place to address crises
enacted in 2015 budget law
Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation
Crisis Management Protocol
Indicators to determine crisis level of
Government Securities Market condition (normal,
aware, alert, crisis)
Several market indicators that are monitored
daily:
- Yield of benchmark series;
- Exchange rate;
- Jakarta Composite Index;
- Foreign ownership in government securities
Policies to address the crisis at every level :
- Repurchase the government securities at
secondary market
- Postpone or stop the issuance
First Line of Defense
Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing
and Risk Management
Investment fund at Public Service Agency
(BLU) (min. level Aware)
State Owned Enterprises
Related BUMNs (min. level Aware)
Social Security Organizing
BPJS (min. level Aware)
Second Line of Defense
State General Treasury Account
(Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert)
Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min.
Level Crisis)
State Owned Enterprises
Related BUMNs (min. level Alert)
Social Security Organizing
BPJS (min. level Alert)
Bond Stabilization Framework
Implement Measures to Manage External Volatility
24
-
Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile
-
- 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
-206
0
Loan Gov't Sec
020406080
100120140160180200220240
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
-206
0
Domestic Foreign
Total Debt Maturity Profile as of End of November,
2015
26
Maturity Profile of Central Government by Instruments (in trillion IDR)
Maturity Profile of Central Government by Currencies (in trillion IDR)
44%56%
Foreign Domestic
76%
24%
Gov't Sec Loan
-
Notes: * Preliminary Figures
Outstanding Central Government Debt by Instrument
27
Nominal %
a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 68,6 68,4 63,6 58,4 53,9 53,6 24,1%
Bilateral 42,3 42,1 37,2 31,5 26,7 24,6 11,1%
Multilateral 23,2 23,5 23,8 23,7 23,5 25,5 11,5%
Commercial 3,0 2,8 2,5 3,3 3,7 3,5 1,6%
Suppliers 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0%
b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) 0,0 0,1 0,19 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,1%
c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 118,4 131,0 140,8 136,3 155,2 168,3 75,7%
Foreign Currency Denominated 18,0 21,6 27,4 32,8 36,7 44,1 19,9%
Rupiah Denominated 100,4 109,4 113,4 103,5 118,5 124,1 55,9%
Total Central Government Debt
(in billion USD)187,0 199,5 194,9 209,4 222,2
Total Central Government Debt
(in trilion IDR)1.681,7 1.808,9 2.375,5 2.604,9 3.074,8
Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 8.991,0 9.068,0 12.189,0 12.440,0 13.840,0
GDP (in trillion IDR) 6.864,1 7.831,7 9.524,7 10.542,7
Debt to GDP Ratio 24,5% 23,1% 23,0% 24,9% 24,7%
8.615,7
9.670,0
1.977,7
Nov-15
204,5
2011 2012 2013 20142010Description
-
28 Notes: * Preliminary Figures
Outstanding Central Government Debt by Currency
2010 2011
Original Currency
IDR (in trillion) 902,6 993,0 1.098,0 1.263,9 1.477,5 1.722,1
Gov't Securities 902,4 992,0 1.096,2 1.261,7 1.474,6 1.718,2
Loan 0,2 1,0 1,8 2,2 2,9 3,9
USD (in billion) 39,6 43,9 49,8 56,8 61,0 69,1
Gov't Securities 16,9 20,4 25,6 31,3 34,2 39,7
Loan 22,8 23,5 24,2 25,4 26,8 29,4
JPY (in billion) 2.689,8 2.589,8 2.498,8 2.395,3 2.204,0 2.183,5
Gov't Securities 95,0 95,0 155,0 155,0 155,0 255,0
Loan 2.594,8 2.494,8 2.343,8 2.228,8 2.049,0 1.928,5
EUR (in billion) 5,4 5,0 4,5 4,2 5,1 6,1
Gov't Securities - - - - 1,0 2,3
Loan 5,4 5,0 4,5 4,2 4,1 3,9
Other currencies
Equivalent in Billion USD
IDR 100,4 109,5 113,5 103,7 118,8 124,4 56,0%
USD 39,8 43,9 49,8 56,8 61,0 69,1 31,1%
JPY 33,1 33,4 29,1 22,8 18,5 17,8 8,0%
EUR 7,2 6,4 6,0 5,8 6,2 6,5 2,9%
Other currencies 6,5 6,3 6,1 5,8 5,0 4,4 2,0%
Total Eq. in Billion USD 187,0 199,5 204,5 194,9 209,4 222,2
Equivalent in Trillion IDR
IDR 902,8 993,0 1.098,0 1.263,9 1.477,5 1.722,1
USD 357,6 397,9 481,9 692,0 758,3 955,9
JPY 297,6 302,5 281,2 278,3 229,8 246,2
EUR 65,0 58,5 57,5 71,1 76,9 89,9
Other currencies 58,6 57,1 59,1 70,2 62,4 60,7
Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1.681,7 1.808,9 1.977,7 2.375,5 2.604,9 3.074,8
Foreign Currency Portion 46,3% 45,1% 44,5% 46,8% 43,3% 44,0%
Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 8.991 9.068 9.670 12.189,0 12.440,0 13.840,0
----------------Multiple Currencies -----------------------
2014 Nov-152012 2013
-
Central Government Debt Ratios
Debt to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Revenue and Expenditure Ratio
Debt Service to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Tax Revenue &
Central Government Expenditure Ratio
29 Notes: Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version] * Preliminary Figures
24.5%23.1% 23.0%
24.9% 24.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
8.9
%
7.7
%
7.5
%
7.9
%
8.7
%
8.5
%
7.2
%
6.7
%
6.8
%
7.6
%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Interest to Revenue Interest to Expenditure
3.1%
2.9%
3.2%
2.9%
3.4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
12.2
%
10.7
%
10.8
%
10.5
%
11.7
%
12.7
%
10.6
%
9.9%
9.9%
11.2
%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure
-
Risk Indicators
30 Risk indicators are improving amidst pressure from rupiah depreciation Risk indicators show improvements in interest rate risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risks
Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk
Debt Maturing in 1,3, and 5 years Average Time To Maturity (ATM) - Years
Notes: *)Preliminary Figures **)Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version]
20,318,8
16,2 16,014,8 14,5
26,1 25,9
22,5 23,220,9 20,5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q3-2015
Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%]
11,3 10,4 10,2 11,7 10,712,3
46,2 45,1 44,446,7
43,346,5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*)
FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) **) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)
9,46
9,32
9,70
9,60
9,74
9,60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q3-2015
ATM (in years)
7,1 8,2 7,28,6 7,7 7,5
20,822,7 21,5 21,8
20,2 20,6
34,2 34,632,4 33,4
33,9 33,9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q3-2015in < 1 year (%) in < 3 year (%) in < 5 year (%)
-
END OF PRESENTATION Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia Directorate of Government Debt Securities Frans Seda building, 4th floor, Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat Postal Code: 10710 Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516 Website: www.djppr.kemenkeu.go.id
-
241.7
326.2
356.5 361.4
497.0 505.5
552.3
610.1
650.2 647.2
27.09%
24.01%
21.77%
24.11%
19.74%20.71%
12.79%
22.79% 22.86%23.57%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15
Govt. Securities (GS) Bond Deposit Stock
Mutual Funds Others Total Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS)
90.1
108.4
141.5 136.5
156.4
169.5
180.4 185.1
190.6 191.3
27.9%
27.4%
21.9% 22.6%
19.7%
18.4%16.9%
16.7% 16.5% 17.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Dec-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15
Govt. Securities (GS) Bond Deposit
Stock Mutual Funds Others
Total Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS)
Domestic Institutional Investors
Insurance Company Mutual Fund
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK), data processsed 32
71.48
110.13
142.97
159.00
180.28
244.32
220.24
235.79247.24
262.28
45%
37%
33%
28%
25%
20%
25%
20%21% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
Government Securities (GS) Deposit Bond Stock Others Total Investasi % SBN (RHS)
Pension Fund