Faculty of Humanities

The Department of Asian Studies

Haifa University

Government Intervention in Fertility Decline

The Case of Japanese Public Policy

Japanese Political Culture

Lecturer: Dr. Guy Podoler

MA in Asian Studies

Student: Dganit Abramoff

E-mail: dabramof@campus.haifa.ac.il

Phone Number: 054-2440346

ID 302136387

October 26, 2014

Spring Semester ד"תשע

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Table of Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 2

Section 2: Child and Family Related Policies in Japan .................................................... 9

Part I: “The 1990 Shock” .............................................................................................. 9

Part II: Decline in Fertility 2005 ................................................................................. 13

Section 3: Evaluations and Conclusions of Public Policies ............................................ 15

Part I: Evaluation ....................................................................................................... 15

Part II: Issues in evaluation and methodology ............................................................ 18

Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 19

Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 21

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Introduction There has been a massive global drop in human fertility in the past two decades,

according to the Washington Post (Plummer 2013). Birth-rates have fallen in almost

every corner of the world, especially in Western Europe and Asia. Countries, such as

Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Japan, and South Korea, have fewer births per year than

required to replace the number of individuals who die each year. The ramifications of a

decline in fertility strongly affect the future of a nation.

In the past the global community believed that the decline in population was a

blessing, fearing the possibility of a shortage of food supply and job opportunities within

their nations. Today, there is an overall understanding that fertility decline is an issue that

needs to be addressed and solved, especially for countries who do not rely upon

immigration.

Fertility rate is measured based on a number called TFR, total fertility rate. The

total fertility rate equals the average number of children born to a woman over a lifetime.

Countries that have a TFR that is below 2.1 are considered to be below average and are

low fertility rate countries. Demographers believe that countries need to maintain a 2.1

birth-rate to replace their population without the help of immigration (Walsh, 2014). As

of 2013, Japan’s total fertility rate stands at 1.4 (CIA World Factbook).

Countries who suffer from population decline are prone to have many long term

obstacles. In the future, for example, there will be fewer people of working age due to

low fertility. This will result in longer work hours for society, a change in the age of

retirement, and a smaller tax base for social security payments and health insurance.

Other possible effects are declines in economic and technological developments.

Typically young people in the age range of 25-35 develop new industries and design

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innovative technology. With a smaller age group of young people the likelihood for

development and growth becomes smaller and smaller. Thus, governments have begun to

intervene in what are considered to be private matters, childbirth and parenting.

There are a number of different strategies that countries have exercised to

encourage births. Most popular is the implementation of public policy and government

reforms. There is no concrete evidence that public policy has directly affected total

fertility rate and empirically it is very difficult to analyse. However, there have been a

number of studies that have addressed this question. For instance, in Norway and Finland

scholars have found that policy which extended maternity leave for women was a major

factor in raising birth rates (Ronsen, 2004). There are also several theories which discuss

how public policy and family planning need to be constructed to influence fertility rate,

for instance, research that has been conducted by Peter McDonald.

Peter McDonald (2002/3) in his article, “Sustaining Fertility through Public

Policy: The Rage of Options,” provides a fundamental framework as to how to format

public policy. He explains that public policy needs to be constituted based on the

understanding of the issues that brought forth the decline in fertility.

The objective of this paper is to study Japan’s public policy in relation to total

fertility rate. As stated above, currently Japan’s TFR stands at 1.4 which is below the

average. This makes Japan a worthy case study for the analysis of government

intervention through public policy.

I intend to evaluate the public policy that was implemented in Japan from 1990-

2010. In the years 1990 and 2005 Japan had two TFR shocks. In 1990 the TFR was

1.54, a new record low. In 2005 Japan’s TFR hit an all-time low of 1.26, as well as, for

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the first time the number of deaths exceeded the number of births; meaning that the

population officially began to shrink (Aquino, 2013). It would be interesting to observe

the public policy that was first constructed in the 1990s due to the “1990 Shock1” and to

examine if any changes were made in the construction and approach to public policy, in

view of the demographic changes in 2005. McDonald’s (2002/3) article will be used as

theoretical bases for the analysis.

It is important to note, that the paper is not attempting to solve the Japanese

population crisis but rather assess the steps the government has taken to offset the fertility

crisis. Nor is the paper trying to test the level of success or failure of policy implemented

by the Japanese government. The question being asked is: has the continued decline in

birth rate affected the construction and design of public policy implemented by the

Japanese government?

By answering this question, we may better understand the way the Japanese

government perceives the issue of decline in fertility rate. In other words, does the

decline in birth rate have a significant negative effect on Japan’s economy and society

that the government feels the need to intervene and possibly change the social

understanding of fertility, birth, parenting, family and more.

The paper will be divided into three sections. The first section shall provide

theoretical background on public policy and fertility. I shall elaborate on the guidelines

McDonald refers to in his article. The second section of the paper will present the public

policy that Japan put into action in the early 1990s and in 2005. This section will describe

the chronology of the policies and will lightly touch upon the reasons behind said

policies, as in why the Japanese government believed that the policies that they invoked

1 1990 Shock- a term used by the Japanese media to describe the surprising decline in birth-rate

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were the solution for fertility decline. Lastly, the third section of paper will evaluate the

policies enforced during the two time periods. This will help to conclude what changes

were made in the construction of public policy.

Section 1: Sustaining Fertility through Public Policy: Theory McDonald provides us with six fundamental guidelines for sustaining fertility

through public policy. In this section, I shall describe the six guidelines that McDonald

refers to. Later in the paper I will use the guidelines to analyse Japan’s public policy

within the two key point periods, 1990 onwards and 2005 onwards. The guidelines will

help to reflect any changes in the construction and design of the public policy.

The guidelines are as followed:

(1) Culture and Institutions: When creating public policy one must understand that

culture and institutional structures need to be taken into account. McDonald explains that

policies to support fertility must be derived from pre-exiting structures and an

understanding of the society as a whole. In other words, public policy that is applied in

one country most likely will not be applicable in another country due to the structure and

cultural differences of that society. There is no cross-national model for success. Each

country must find an appropriate institutional approach (2002/3, p 417).

(2) Goals: A government should clearly know what they are aiming to achieve. Yes, high

fertility rate is the end goal. However, a country must ask itself how much budget they

are willing to allocate to meet said goal, as well as what is the deadline in which a goal

should be met. It is, also, important to be able to define your end goal with the use of

parameters.

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High fertility is a broad term; governments need to have concrete parameters for

their end goal, as in, perhaps, a goal of demographic sustainability; zero population

growth (2002/3, p 418). Zero population is achieved if fertility rises again to the

replacement level and remains at that level for a period of time. This can be done by

allowing immigrants into the country.

(3) Understanding why: There is a reason for a decline in fertility, and at times even

more than one reason. The reasons for a decline in fertility need to be considered and

taken into account when constructing policy. McDonald states that typically low fertility

rate can be explained through theories of low fertility. He discusses four key theories:

Rational Choice, Risk Aversion, Post-Materialist Values theory, and Gender Equity

theory.

The Rational Choice theory states that people calculate the psychological benefit

over the psychological cost of having a child. People who wish to have a child see that

there is more to gain psychologically then there is to lose psychologically or

economically. In countries where rational choice is the reason for low infertility,

governments need to execute policy that will raise the psychological benefits thresholds

or reduce the economic costs of children. McDonald suggests that this could be done by

forming a more child oriented society (2002/3, p 423).

The Risk Aversion theory is typically the reason behind low fertility rate when

people know that in the future having a child may be a risk. This is notably the case in

societies where there is a lack of economic stability. This theory can also be applied when

people feel as if a child may disrupt the relationship between two parents, or that the

child will disrupt the parent’s lifestyle and future plans.

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The best way to resolve risk aversion is by creating more stability within the

country. For example if a country is a welfare state or has welfare policies people would

feel more secure to have more children (2002/3,p 426).

The Post-Materialist Values theory and the Gender Equity theory go hand in

hand. The theories explain that the reason for low fertility is because families that come

from a more traditional society are not liberated enough to understand the importance of

childbearing; the more liberal a society the higher the fertility. When women feel

emancipated and have the right to choose to have children they will most likely choose to

have more children. Apparently Japan is still considered to be a traditional country with

specific gender roles, which is partially the reason for a decline in fertility.

The Gender Equity theory elaborates on the Post-Materialist value theory by

explaining that in many countries equality exists between the genders at high social

levels. There is equality in the field of education, in government, and in the workforce,

which are high social levels. Still, within the family equality ceases to exist and parents

have very specific gender roles in the household. McDonald claims that once a country

becomes more liberalized and promotes gender equality in all aspect and levels of life -

fertility will rise. Gender equality can be attained through public policy (2002/3, p 429).

(4) Free market economy: in the 1980s the world’s industrialized countries restructured

their economies to form free market based economies. Free market is supposedly the best

way to go about creating profitable business which in turn will lead to improved social

economic status. In the 1990s free market did produce lower levels of unemployment

rate, and greater prosperity. Still, free market has many drawbacks.

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In a free market economy an individual and a company can be penalized for a

failure by losing their salaries. Moreover, there is constant competition between

individuals and companies. This means that an individual needs to focus on staying a

head of the game by having a relevant skillet set, work experience, and by accumulating

enough personal wealth, as well as, remaining flexible and unattached; children and

family mean attachment. Henceforth, higher fertility rate will only be attained if policy

makers take a step in making policy that addresses the social and economic organization

on a larger scale (2002/3,p 432).

(5) Tag-team: In order for policies to work, both families and the market need to be on

board. McDonald says that the government can come up with as many policies as they

want, yet, if for some reason the corporate world won’t support the policies then the

effects of the policies will be minuscule; families won’t be encouraged to have children

because the risk-factor of losing a job would be too high (2002/3, p 435).

(6) Tool-box: The last fundamental guideline that McDonald lays out is quite difficult to

attain. He states that in order for public policy to make an impact, society needs to be

receptive to receive the policy. Or as McDonald puts it, “the right tools will not work on

the wrong machine.”

There are many policies that have been thought of to encourage birth-rate, such as

financial incentives, support for parents to combine work and family, and broad social

change supportive of children and parenting. Nonetheless, the policies will only work if

the society grasps the importance of bringing children to the world (2002/3, p 435).

Public policy is not meant to provide a quick short term solution for a particular

issue; decline in fertility. Public policy is only one tool of intervention for a government

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to resolve declining fertility. In a sense, McDonald is saying that for public policy to

work or for the guidelines to be truly effective, the society needs to change its grasp on

childbirth first.

The next section of the paper will attempt to determine, through Japan’s public

policy, if in fact there was change in grasp by the Japanese government towards the

decline in fertility rate.

Section 2: Child and Family Related Policies in Japan

Part I: “The 1990 Shock” In 1990, under the Kaifu Toshik’s administration, Japan suffered from what’s

known as the 1990 or 1989 Shock. The nation was shocked to find out that the total

fertility rate plunged to 1.57. Although Japan had had a declining birthrate since 1975,

1990 came as a shock to everyone since the total fertility rate plunged below the rate of

1.58, Japan’s all time low during the year of the "Hinoeuma2” in 1966.

In view of the low fertility rate and 1990 economic recession Kaifu Toshik’s

administration began to realize the negative future effects of a continued decline in

fertility. Hence, in 1990 the government decided to take action to help encourage the

birth of children in Japan with the establishment of an inter-ministry liaison committee in

the Cabinet named “Creating a Sound Environment for Breaking and Rearing Children”.

The committee declared that fertility is associated with the private decisions of

individuals and couples, and thereupon government intervention would be formulated

based on that pretence. The committee came to the conclusion that to raise the number of

2 1966 the year of the “Hinoeuma” or the year of the fire horse is considered bad luck. The year of the fire

horse occurs every 60 years. The Japanese people believe that birthing girls during this year will lead to

lack of prosperity, therefore they avoid having children.

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births per year, in Japan, the government would need to promote and support individuals

who are hoping to marry and establish a family with children.

The committee’s first action was to declare one year of unpaid leave for a mother

or the father to look after their new born infant under the 1991 Childcare Leave Act. This

act was later extended in 1995 and was renamed Childcare and Family Care Leave Act,

which regulated that apart from one year leave for care of an infant, a person would be

paid 25 percent of their salary during the leave and enjoy up to three months of leave per

year for taking care of a family member. The act was only for full-time employees.

In 1994, the Basic Direction for Future Child Rearing Support Measures

or the Angel Plan was announced. The goal of the plan was to help working mothers

with child-rearing. Thanks to the plan more day-care centers were opened and after-

school programs were setup to help working mothers. The plan also helped to ease

economic burden associated with raising children (Child Related Policies in Japan, 2003,

p 15)

Within four years the Japanese government managed to create policy that was

expected to affect the total fertility rate. Be it as it may, in 1995 the total fertility rate of

the country stood at 1.38, nineteen points lower than the 1.57 number that shocked the

government in 1990. Accordingly in 1998, the MHLW decided to change the direction of

their policy.

In the past, fertility policy focused on supporting working mothers to reconcile

work and children. That government strongly believed that by providing mothers with

more support, through day care-centers and after school programs, mothers would then be

more inclined to have children. In 1998, in a report titled the Basic Ideas on Low

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Fertility-Population Decreasing Society, Responsibility and Choice for the Future, the

MHLW decided that family planning policy should be to restructure Japanese

employment and family systems to a more individual-based, gender –role free society

(Child Related Policies in Japan, 2003, p 16)

Based on the Basic Ideas on Low Fertility-Population Decreasing Society,

Responsibility and Choice for the Future report the government put together a plan, the

“New Angel Plan” that followed eight measures (Child Related Policies in Japan, 2003, p

16): making daycare centers and childcare services more accessible, making employment

environment more adjustable for workers with children, changing traditional gender-role

values and work-first atmosphere in work environment, developing maternal and child

health facilities, promoting educational environment based on local community,

improving education for children, reducing economic burden for educational costs, and

making community function more supportive for families with children through housing

and public facilities. The objective of the plan was to allow both men and women to take

an active role in child rising.

By 2001, the Cabinet formed the Basic Direction for Policies Supporting Work

and Childcare Compatible. The policy was aimed towards corporations and firms with

the intentions of making work and childcare possible for employees. The policy called for

employers to practice more flexible hours, and for more child day care centers and after

school centers. The government began to recognize that birth-rate could only be raised

with the help and participation of the corporate world. In 2003-2004 this line of thought

was strengthened with passing of three bills.

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The Law for Measures to Support the Development of the Next Generation was

passed. This new law called for more government intervention on a local level and in

public organizations regarding the formulation of plans to encourage a balance between

work and childcare. Also the Amendment to the Child Welfare plan was recognized. It

stated that children were entitled to greater government support through consultation

services for parents, and childcare support services through child minders (2003, p 16).

Lastly, the Law for Basic Measures to Cope with Declining Fertility Society asks

for the establishment of Committee to Cope with Declining Fertility Society under the

Cabinet Office. The committee is responsible for designing policies to deal with

declining fertility from a long term perspective (2003, p 17).

The government’s policies from 1990-2004 had a very clear purpose. The

government wished to encourage births by providing more money incentives to families,

specifically women, and by creating a better sense of balance between work and home

life through childcare services. The policies were largely focused on women, although

they were tailored to men as well. The objective was to reflect to women that having a

child was not an economic burden and that it was possible to be a working mother. The

policies were designed that way since it was believed that the decline in fertility was

caused by the postponement of marriage by women (Schad-Seifert, 2006 p 6). Therefore,

all policies focused on attempting to emphasize that having children would not put a stop

to a woman’s careers and that their workplace was behind them. Nonetheless, the

policies, that totalled ten different plans of action, did not manage to raise the TFR.

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Part II: Decline in Fertility 2005 In 2005 after more than a decade of attempting to raise fertility, Japan once more

was shocked to find that their total fertility rate was at an all-time low of 1.26. Not only

was the birth-rate low but the number of deaths exceeded the number of births; meaning

that the population officially began to shrink.

The government knew that something needed to be done and fast. At the time the

government was led by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Koizumi quickly adjusted his

plans and policies to the devastating news. His first action was to establish a ministerial

bureau in the Cabinet Office designed to deal with the decline in fertility. Kuniko

Inoguchi was inaugurated as the “Minister of State for Gender Equality and Social

Affairs” in October 2005 (Schad-Seifert, 2006 p 6).

Koizumi believed that the core of decline in fertility was due to the lack of gender

equality. Hence, most of the reforms and policies that he implemented were

fundamentally based on that belief. The government in 2006 published a report stating

that based on academic research countries who have managed to raise birth rate improved

their gender social standing. In other words, countries that changed their perception on

the typical gender roles on male participation in the household and the equalization of

women in the workforce saw a rise in fertility rate (White Pages on Gender Equality,

2006 p 15). The report also reflected that in 1999 in the Basic Law for Gender-equal

Society law, the government had begun to understand that gender-equality is the key to a

higher fertility rate, but this law wasn’t strongly enforced within society (2006, p 16).

In 2005, the Bureau of Gender Equality and Social affairs decided to set forth a

new plan based on the Basic Law for Gender-equal Society. The plan had twelve priority

fields and was a long term plan that was meant to see results in (2006, p 17). The crucial

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points in the plan were to promote gender equality in the media, enrich education and

learning that promote gender equality, and review social systems and practices and raise

awareness from a gender equal perspective (2006, p 17).

The Bureau of Gender Equality and Social affairs in 2007 – 2010 implemented a

number of different reforms, laws, and policies that went hand in hand with the Gender-

equal Society Plan. In 2007, Equal Employment Opportunity Law was amended. The

main contents of the amendment include prohibition of gender discrimination against

both men and women, expansion of the scope of prohibited sexual discrimination, such as

indirect discrimination, and prohibition of disadvantageous treatment by reason of

pregnancy, childbirth (Measures for Gender Equality, 2010 p 31)

By 2010 the government had created the Third Basic Plan for Gender Equality to

enforce their gender equality agenda, which called for gender equality for men and

children, support for men and women facing living difficulties such as poverty, creation

of an environment in which people such as the elderly and the disabled, live comfortably,

gender equality in science and technology and academic fields, and the promotion of

gender equality in fields of regional development and disaster prevention (Measures for

Gender Equality, 2010 p 32). The Third Basic Plan for Gender Equality was an extension

of the Gender-equal Society Plan that was enforced in 2005.

As a result of the 2005 decline, the government began to promote gender –

equality versus prenatal policies that were implemented in the 90s. It seems as if the

policies and plans that were implemented as of 2005 more closely followed McDonald’s

conclusions. In the next section of the paper I shall analyse the difference between the

90’s policies and the 2005 onwards policies based on McDonald’s guidelines.

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Section 3: Evaluations and Conclusions of Public Policies

Part I: Evaluation There is no doubt that the Japanese government has made an effort to encourage

birth-rate. As written in the previous section, the government began to intervene in child

birth related matters in the 1990s due to the drop in total fertility rate. Be it as it may,

government intervention, as McDonald (2002/3) states, needs to follow a number of

different guidelines including a clear goal and an understating of social structure in order

to be effective.

The policies that were enforced, in 1990s, Japan only followed McDonald’s

guidelines to a certain extent. The government’s intention was to avert the decline in

fertility by believing that the cause was due to rational choice theory, as McDonald

(2002/3) would say. The government believed that the reason for the decline in fertility

was due to the postponement of marriage, which was caused due to the economic

struggle that women faced in bringing children to the world. The Angel Plans were very

much focused on convincing women that there was a possibility to have children since

they were entitled to economic support, through economic incentives, and to social

support with the expansion of daycare plans. This is an implication of the free market

guideline.

Nonetheless the government did not grasp that the struggle in the free market is

what led to the decline in fertility in the first place. Women did not postpone marriage

because they struggled to make ends meet. Women began to postpone marriage because

they wanted to compete in the free market to have the same status level as men.

The society was not open to accept that this was one of the reasons that women

delayed marriage. Ergo, the child allowance did not speak to women who had yet to have

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children. Rather it was tailored more to women who had already had children and were

possibly considering another child (Schad-Seifert, 2006 p 6).

Finally, the policies from the 90s began to touch upon guideline number 6, tool

box. The government saw that the earlier policies were not working and that fertility

decline continued throughout the years. They came to the realization that they needed to

reassess. In 1999, for the first time, the government constructed a policy with the

intention of facilitating gender equality, the Basic Law for Gender-equal Society. The

Basic Law for Gender-equal society rendered that the workplace would give equal

opportunities for both men in women in the workplace.

This law wasn’t enforced to the fullest extent, since society and corporations were

not ready to accept that both men and women shared the burden in childbearing and child

raising. The society had yet to go through a change in social understanding. Thus,

guideline number 6 could not be accomplished to its fullest extent (Oishi, 2004, p 7).

The decline in 2005 is what brought about a change in perception. The

government realized that the policies and reforms were not working. Something was not

right, especially since the population from that point onwards began to shrink. The

government began to re-evaluate its steps.

Prime Minister Koizumi came to the conclusion that the best way to effect the

decline in fertility was to change the social understanding in the country. His economic

reforms had the same intentions (Cabinet Office Government of Japan, 2005, p 43).

Koizumi’s plan was a long term plan with a goal to help the people of Japan understand

that women and men were equal in all aspects of life, an indication that Koizumi and his

administration analysed the why behind the fertility decline or guideline 3. Note, that it is

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unclear if lack of gender equality is the main reason for fertility decline. The why will

only be known once the fertility decline ceases to be a trend.

There was a deep grasping that this change would take a number of years to occur

but eventually it would bear results. Koizumi’s plan included promotion of gender- equal

society in the education system, through the promotion of media, and the offering of

incentives to the business world to support gender equality (Gender Equality Bureau

Cabinet Office, 2006, p 15).

Koizumi’s plan followed almost all of McDonald’s guidelines. We see that

Koizumi and the administrations after him, especially Abe and Hatoyama, surmised that

Japan has a unique culture and traditions and that coping would fertility decline would

need a unique solution (Gender Equality Bureau Cabinet Office, 2006, p 2). As guideline

1 states there are no cross-national models for encouragement of birth-rate.

Neither the Third Base Plan nor Koizumi’s reform had clear enough goals as

required by guideline 2. Still, the plan reassessed itself every year until 2010 by

publishing annul White Pages Cabinet Reports that presented the changes in the twelve

parameters that the plan outlined.

Guideline 5, tag team, was also part of Koizumi’s plan and played an even bigger

role in the reformation of the plan in 2010. The government knew that without the help

of the corporate world and the free market their policies would not stand a chance

(Cabinet White Pages, 2010, p 8), the government pushed companies to allow women to

be part of the workforce and to allow women and men to have a balance work life and

home life.

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Through the steps that the government took we may conclude that there was a

clear change in perception regarding policies to help encourage birth-rate. Additionally

the plan that was set forth, by Koizmui, shows that in order for Japan to solve the decline

in fertility a change in social understanding and priorities needs to be made. The society

as a whole needs to come to the realization that its traditional grasps of gender role is

hurting it’s population and may result in the extinction of the Japanese nation. Koizumi

and the administrations following him apprehend that policy won’t help to change TFR if

the nation as a whole is not on board with wanting to change the current situation. This is

exactly what guideline six, toolbox, proposes.

We do not know if the 2005 or the 2010 based on Basic Law for Gender-equal

Society will result in a rise in TFR, but we do know that Japan is now going through a

change in thought process that may very well lead to a rise in TFR. The change in

discourse is due to the government’s intervention and their apprehension that something

must budge in the way that society runs.

Part II: Issues in evaluation and methodology The previous part of section 3 attempted to evaluate the policies that were

enforced by the government in the 90’s and 2005. The evaluation was based on

McDonald’s conclusions in his article, “Fertility through Public Policy: The Rage of

Options.” There are a number of issues in the method of analysis in this paper.

Firstly, the evaluation was based on the methodology that was concluded by one

scholar and not by a number of different sources. In order for an analysis to be thorough

and accurate one must bring a number of different perspectives into the evaluation. Be it

as it may, I found that McDonald’s conclusions were inclusive of many different schools

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of thought. Second, the conclusions that were derived were based on the interpretation of

the policy and the government reports mostly dated in the early 2000’s. It is possible that

the reports that evaluated the 90’s policies were not objective as to why said policies

were enforced. The reports were secondary sources and not first sources.

In addition, there is no empiric evidence that allows us to conclude the influence

of the different policies on Japan’s society aside from the statistical assessment of the

TFR, which is not enough. In other words the paper only could point out that a change

was made in the formation of policy but not if there was a direct effect on Japanese

society. If I continue my research it is imperative that other factors aside from policy and

the statistical number of TFR be taken into account to test the influence of policy or what

lies behind the change in policy.

Conclusion The objective of this paper was to asses Japan as a case study for public policy.

The paper relayed that for public policy to be used effectively it needs to be formatted

according to a set of guidelines that are consciousness of the social atmosphere in the

country.

The paper was divided into three sections. The first section posed the issue of

decline in fertility rate and the theoretical means for a government to go about

intervening in the issue. The theoretical basis presented a set of six guidelines that need to

be taken under consideration by a government when designing a policy. The second

section of the paper gave a description of policies, reforms, and laws that were posed by

Japan during two crucial time periods; the 1990’s shock and the 2005 decline. The 1990’s

shock was the first time Japan faced such a low TFR. The government quickly decided to

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step in. The reforms that were put into place in the 1990s were very much focused on

convincing women to have children.

In 2005, with the second shocking decline in TFR, the government recognized

that policy which tried to convince women to have children did not raise fertility, and the

strategy needed to be changed. The government changed its strategies to a long term plan

that would eventually lead to a gender – equal society. The change in policy perception

indicated a change that seemed to be formulated based on the theoretical guidelines,

indicating that there was a change in policy and that policy was formulated in the

“correct” manner that would hopefully lead to a raise in the TRF.

The last section of the paper presented how the change in perception went hand in

hand with the guidelines. It also indicated that Japan was going through a change in

social understanding. The change in social understanding is what will perhaps lead to a

true rise in fertility. However, only time will tell.

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