GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNOR GENERAL:

ASSESSING SCHOLARLY OPINION

Johannes Wheeldon, Norwich University

Overview The Governor General’s role in commissioning a Prime

Minister is often said to be constrained by constitutional conventions (Twomey, 2010);

Recent scholarship on the Crown in Canada has challenged the notion conventions apply the same way in various Commonwealth countries (Jackson & Lagasse, 2013);

Given the widespread confusion about the existence and applicability of various constitutional conventions in Canada, surveying subject matter experts can help identify leading views, debates, and outstanding issues (Wheeldon, 2013);

This Morning I report preliminary results of survey of

65 political scientists and constitutional scholars;

I present 3 themes as a means to understand the findings;

I offer 3 immodest (!) proposals for discussion by the illustrious panel;

3 Themes Elections and Electoral Outcomes

Benefits of Incumbency;

Role(s) of Governor General;

Elections and Electoral Outcomes What do elections mean in Canada? 

Elections serve to elect the House of Commons from which a government and prime minister are selected (Forsey, 2010);

  Through elections Canadians directly elect a

government that gains a mandate through the election campaign (Flanagan, 2009);

  While in principle Canadians elect a Parliament, in

practice elections are best seen as a means to select a government, based on which party wins the majority of seats (For a critique see Cyr, 2013).

Electoral Outcomes Is a PM bound to resign if opposition

party wins a majority of seats in the House following an election?

Yes (Forsey; 2010; Twomey, 2010)

No

The Benefits of Incumbency By convention if after an election no one clearly

holds the confidence of a majority in the House, the incumbent Prime Minister has the right to remain in office and test his or her support on the floor of the House (Russell, 2009; Twomey, 2010);

In such circumstances, does the benefits of incumbency extend to PM even when coalition comprising majority in House was announced in election campaign?

In such circumstances, does the benefits of incumbency extend to PM’s chosen successor?

Role(s) of Governor General Governments in Canada require support

in the House to govern. What is the GG’s role when that support is in doubt?

GG limited except where a government has explicitly lost a confidence vote (Brun, 2008);

GG can consider fundamental principles of parliamentary democracy (Russell, 2009);

Role of Governor General In some rare circumstances a Governor

General can refuse the advice of a defeated Prime Minister.

What should a GG do when a defeated PM wants his/her successor to test support in House following an election in which the opposition wins a majority ?

What should a GG do when a PM has lost a confidence vote in House but refuses to resign?

Survey The short online survey was based on

various scenarios and open and closed ended questions;

Reviewed by constitutional scholars, former parliamentary clerks, and advisers to Governors General;

Approved by IRB at Norwich University in January 2014. 

Methods Sample

Political scientists and constitutional scholars who had published in relevant substantive areas in CPSA, CPSR, or presented relevant papers at CPSA in the last 5 years;

65 of 120 with verifiable email addresses responded between February and April 2014; 

Research focus Not on providing a comprehensive picture of ALL

views but on identifying 2 leading views to set up informed debate (Wheeldon, 2013);

Findings 1. Elections / Electoral Outcomes;

2. The Limits of Incumbency;

3. Role of Governor General

Elections: How do survey participants view elections in Canada?

Parliaments Elected / Governments Selected

Governments selected based on who wins most seats ;

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

30

33

Electoral Outcomes: Does PM resign if Opposition wins majority in an election?

PM has duty to resign

PM has no duty to resign

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

30

31

Incumbency: Can PM meet House following an election in which an announced coalition of parties wins combined majority in the House?

No

Yes

0 10 20 30 40 50

12

51

Incumbency: Can PM meet House following election when opposition wins most seats (not majority) and plans to govern through unannounced coalition?

No

Yes

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

24

37

Incumbency: Do benefits extend to the PM’s chosen successor who wants to test support in House following election in which Opposition wins a majority?

Yes

No

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

20

36

Role of GG: How Should GG Resolve Constitutional Debates When Called Upon to Do So?

Defer to the government unless it has formally lost confidence;

Consider fundamental principles of parliamentary democracy;

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

17

31

Role of GG: Correct Course of Action when…

Make Enquiries to find person most likely to hold confidence

Commission Leader of Party who won Most Seats

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

12

24

When PM wants successor to test support in House

Role of GG: Correct Course of Action when…

Dismiss PM and call on leader of party that won most seats

Make Enquiries to find person most likely to hold confidence

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

24

35

When PM loses confidence vote in House

Discussion: Problems and Proposals Elections: Even split among how to view elections – is

it any wonder citizens are confused about what elections mean in Canada when experts themselves disagree?

Incumbency: PM can meet the House following ANY electoral outcome; 20 out of 65(!) suggest incumbency extends to PM’s successor even after electoral loss in which opposition wins a MAJORITY of seats;

Role of GG: Consistent view against active GG and supreme role of the House, but unclear if GG should respond to electoral outcomes or use personal discretion when commissioning new PM;

3 Modest Proposals 1. Following Federal elections for local MP, elected

MPs in the House should meet to formally elect (by majority) a PM who then names Cabinet. This can be framed as advice to GG (Cameron, 2009);

This would require amending the Standing Orders of the House of Commons and replace voting on an Address in Reply to the Speech from the Throne, which currently serves to indicate support in the government.

Ensures the process to determine a government in the House occurs in full view of Canadians (and is covered by the media);

3 Modest Proposals 2. Canada should explicitly re-adopt

Commonwealth convention that PM resigns if Opposition wins majority of seats in an election;

Resignation must be timed with vote in House and naming of new PM / Need to revisit role of Caretaker PM in Canada;

Sends clear message to Canadians about the role of elections and the limits of incumbency;

3 Modest Proposals Parliament should adopt a variant of

constructive no-confidence vote, whereby confidence is withdrawn only if there is a majority for a prospective successor;

This should be combined with the formal election/selection of a government in the House as outlined in proposal 1;

Reminder of where power lies (Parliament) and serves to guide GG when commissioning new PM after confidence has been withdrawn.

Limitations Complexity of scenarios in survey;

Need larger sample to truly assess scholarly opinion;

Existing analysis would benefit from additional of qualitative themes from open-ended questions within the survey;

Thanks