Governance Innovation for Security and Development:

Proposed ProjectsSGT Charles N. Palmares

1005th Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Training CompanyStanford Human Sciences and Technologies Advanced Research Institute

Overview

• Introduction• Logistics• Capabilities• Project Proposal: Analyses• Project Proposal: Tools and Techniques• Project Proposal: Workshops• Questions

Introduction

Introduction

Through a series of multistakeholder analyses, workshops, and technological development projects, Sergeant Palmares will produce reports with recommendations for an improved strategic framework for Support to Civil Administration and other Civil Affairs (CA) and Military Information Support Operations (MISO) functions.

Logistics

Logistics

• Time Frame: 1-2 years• Location: Stanford University and Naval Postgraduate School• OIC/NCOIC: TBD (dependent on ADOS orders)• Funding: TBD (dependent on ADOS orders)• Current Partners: Stanford University and Naval Postgraduate School• Potential Partners: Palantir and Quid

Capabilities

Sergeant Charles N. Palmares• 2006: BA Political Science from University of California, Davis • focus on governance and development in the Philippines

• 2010: Enlisted in US Army as Civil Affairs Specialist• 2012: Awarded US Army Commendation Medal for supporting JSTOF-P in

conducting SMEE on governance and rule of law

• 2012: Assistant Training Sergeant to 1005th CA/PO TNG Co • 2013: Researcher Assistant/Project Coordinator at Stanford University

Project Proposal: Analyses

Project Proposal: Analyses

Behavioral Analysis in Counterinsurgency• Behavioral analysis of authoritarian regimes and violent non-state

actors (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist orgs) vis-à-vis COIN• Hypothesis: predicts a significant and positive relationship between a

modified model of community-driven development and the reduction in conflict and promotion in development• Methodology: test various models of diplomacy, governance, and rule

of law; controlled field experiments and computer simulation

Project Proposal: Analyses

Institutional Drivers of Human Development• Analysis of political institutional drivers—namely, capacity, autonomy,

and incentive—and their potential relationship with human development (e.g. income, education, and health)• Hypothesis: predicts drivers will have a significant and positive

relationship with human development; individually, the drivers will no relationship• Methodology: cross-provincial and regression analysis, Philippines

1997-2009

Tools and Techniques

Tools and Techniques

Strategic Communication• Develop framework to utilize “persuasive technologies” to engage key

leaders and social movements to facilitate diplomatic relations in non-permissive environments• Project will review literature and test engagement effectiveness in

local cities and possibly OEF operations

Tools and Techniques

Civil Information Management• Develop framework for geo-spatial analysis which will quantitatively

assess and forecast the effectiveness of Support to Civil Administration in conflict mitigation and prevention• Application of Bayesian statistics to a previously developed equation

on the size and frequency of attacks in conflict • Project will make recommendations to hardware and software to

improve visualization and functionality• Potential Partners: Quid and Palantir

Workshops

WorkshopsDirection of State Formation• Top-down and bottom-up state formation

Development as a Product of Political and Economic Institutions• Development through reform in governance and markets

Authoritarian Regimes and Violent Non-State Actors as Community Stakeholders• Exclusive and inclusive governance processes• Participatory and deliberate democratic processes• Emphasis on authoritarian regimes (e.g. Syria and China) and VNSAs (e.g.

warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist organizations)

Workshops

Rule of Law Through Formal and Informal Judicial Institutions• Merits and challenges of rule of law through formal judicial institutions,

informal and customary laws, and religious codes• Second and third order effects with respect to human rights and conflict

resolution

Constitutional Design in Post-Conflict States• Merits and challenges of “accommodation” and “integration” as

approaches in constitutional design• Second and third order effects on security and development

Questions

Overview

• Introduction• Logistics• Capabilities• Project Proposal: Analyses• Project Proposal: Tools and Techniques• Project Proposal: Workshops• Questions

Governance Innovation for Security and Development:

Proposed ProjectsSGT Charles N. Palmares

1005th Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Training CompanyStanford Human Sciences and Technologies Advanced Research Institute